russian relations resps 7wk

8/11/2019 Russian Relations Resps 7WK

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RUSSIAN RELATIONS - 7WKHKBPP


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DEFENSE


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ALT CAUSE - MISSILE DEFENSEUS missile defense sysem l!"#es i""i!n $ "el!i$ns- %!&sin# R&ssi! $ %$nside"

!!%'H&essy( )*+,*+ [Peter, Senior Defense Associate, National Defense Association Foundation,http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.phparticle!"#$%&'pageid!(%'pagename!Anal)sis, *+ealiing a -loal a)ered 0issile DefenseS)stem1, Accessed 2ul) %, //S34+ussia is demanding the 5nited States stop uilding missile defenses in 6urope, 7ust as itsimultaneousl) assists 8ran in uilding the 9er) missiles that threaten NA; . 8n languagereminiscent of the ladimir Putin isonce again urging =ashington to ?etternot to do this.? +ussian


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added. NA; announced at its


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ALT CAUSE 6 SRIASy"i! is 4e de%isi/e 4in# ."e/enin# US-R&ssi!n "el!i$nsSmi4( )*5*+ [0att,


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ALT CAUSE - LAUNDR LIST

N&me"$&s 0!""ie"s $ "el!i$ns- !l %!&ses m&s 0e $/e"%$me 0ef$"e ! "ese $n"el!i$ns %!n 4!..en

Min%4e/( )*+,*+ [;gn)an, Pulic Ser9ice 6urope,http://www.pulicser9iceeurope.com/article/C(##/putinrelishesdeterioratingusrussiarelations, *Putin relishes deteriorating 5S+ussia relations1, Accessed 2ul) %, //S34he meeting of 5nited States President Harac@ ;ama and his +ussian counterpart >ladimir Putin at the -C summit in 0exico

onl) underscored the chill in relations etween 0oscow and =ashington. 8n fact, relations ha9e deterioratedsteadil) since Putin replaced the ailing Horis Leltsin in (, despite ;amaBs amitious program to impro9e Q or BresetB Q ilateral

ties. oda) the reset is o9er, and the two leaders no longer disguise their differences on most importantinternational issues. For ;ama, the interment of one of his administrationBs signature foreign polic) efforts at the outset ofa reelection campaign is an unwelcome realisation. =ith few triumphs in the international arena, ;ama undoutedl) loo@ed

forward to citing impro9ed relations with +ussia as an unOualified asset. For their part, +ussian leaders ha9e seemedcontemptuous of American hopes for renewing their strained relationship. 5nder Putin,0oscow has steadfastl) opposed western efforts to halt ci9ilian casualties in S)ria andinternational efforts to loc@ 8ranBs nuclear program.0ost pointedl), the new 5S amassador to+ussia0ichael 0cFaul Q a @e) author of the reset strateg) Qwas pulicl) ostracied in a series of +ussianmedia exposRs.


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UNI


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UNSUSTAINABLE - =EOPOLITICAL DISPUTESRel!i$ns !"e &ns&s!in!0le 6 eme"#in# #e$.$lii%!l dis.&es !nd 0!""ie"s $

di.l$m!%yL!F"!n%4i( +Q has een the 0onitorBs diplomac) correspondent in D< since C(.Pre9iousl), he spent (C )ears as a reporter in the field ser9ing fi9e )ears as the 0onitorBs Paris

ureau chief from (& to (#, and as a atin America correspondent in 0exico


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UNSUSTAINABLE 6 PUTINRel!i$ns im.$ssi0le 6 P&in;s ele%i$n ens&"es R&ssi!n 4$siliy

Asl&nd( + senior fellow at the Peterson 8nstitute for 8nternational 6conomics Anders,$/($/(C, *Iic@ +ussia ;ut of the -&1http://www.foreignpolic).com/articles/C(C/$/($/@ic@UrussiaUoutUofUtheUgU&G//IV+ussiaBs new president, >ladimir Putin, has recognied that he does not elong at the -&summit. he -"should ta@e him at his word. 5.S. President Harac@ ;ama needs to face up totwo closel) related issues: how to treat+ussia, and, specificall), how to treat Putin, now that he has returned to office. Obama needs torethink his "reset," as conditions have changed.;9er the last four )ears, President Dmitr) 0ed9ede9 impro9ed +ussiaBs relations with 9irtuall) e9er)od),while Prime 0inister Putin ruled at home. 0ed9ede9 concluded the New SA+ agreement, shepherded+ussia into the =orld rade ;rganiation, opened the Northern Distriution Networ@ forsupplies to

Afghanistan, and made sustantial progress on missile defense.Hut now Putin is back. A few hours after his 0a) " inauguration, he decreed that a 6urasian 5nionofHelarus and Iaa@hstanwould e his top foreignpolic) priorit) a sign of insecurit) and isolation .=hile 0ed9ede9 accepted international action in i)a, Putin defends hisold repressi9e friends in S)ria,declaringthat +ussia will ?counter attempts to use human rights concepts as an instrument of political pressure and interference in theinternal affairs of states.?

wo da)s later, Putin declared that he would not attend the 0a) (&( -& summit at


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Putin pulicl) disagreed with 0ed9ede9, his handpic@ed successor, on a numer of @e) polic) issues,man) of them 9ital to 5.S. interests. hese included the role of freedom in the countr), the legac) of2oseph StalinPutin called him *an effecti9e manager1G, and the collapse of the So9iet 5nion. he two alsoargued on moderniation, i)a, and persecutionof the former oil magnate 0i@hail Ihodor@o9s@).Putinalso supports *friendship1 with eneuela andgood relations with 8ran. At 9arious pointsPutin accused the 5.S. of supporting 8slamist terroristsin North


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re9olutions struc@ +ussian authorities as part of a conspirac) aimed at Q among other things Qhampering +ussian interests in places li@e i)a and S)ria. 0oscow sees 5Sled efforts to curehranBs nuclear programme as an attempt to pro9o@e western or 8sraeli militar) action, withthe aim of effecting regime change. his could pa9e the wa) for the 5S and its allies tostrategicall) and commerciall) penetrate postSo9iet central Asia. he westBs direct access tocentral Asian energ) resources could cripple +ussiaBs strateg) of monopolising energ) suppl)

corridorsetween 6urope and the east. here might also e a strong ideological element in PutinBs attitudestoward the current 5S president. =hile ;ama is a postmodern lieral, Putin resemles a (th centur) authoritarianconser9ati9e.


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a9erage citien.his 9iew of antiAmericanism as originating from elow, as emedded in the ps)cholog) of themasses, is consistent with the opinions of man) +ussian political scientists, sociologists,

7ournalists and politicians,who spread the notion that most +ussians disli@e and o7ect todemocrac). Some see this as a conseOuence of a thousand )ears of +ussian authoritarianismothers attriute it to the heritage of So9iet communism. 8n m) opinion, oth schools of thought strongl)exaggerate the impact of authoritarian tradition on the +ussian people. =hile traditions ma) contriute to the character of a societ),8 elie9e the crucial role in shaping +ussian pulic opinion elongs to the current regime. A9ailale data does not support a *9isceral

hatred of America1 of the sort portra)ed ) man) 7ournalists and politicians in +ussia.AntiAmericanism in +ussiacomes from ao9e. 8t is the elite, through its ailit) to control and manipulate the media,education and literature, which has the power to either foster or stifle xenophoia . here is noOuestion that +ussians ha9e xenophoic tendencies, fed o9er the centuries ) the cars and the+ussian ;rthodox


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UNSUSTAINABLE 6 DOMESTIC CONCERNS+elations are impossile Q domestic concerns come first and destro) relations

Weiss( +Q director of the +AND


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UNSUSTAINABLE 6 IDEOLO=

US !nd R&ssi!n ide$l$#y ."e/ens %$$.e"!i$nTsy#!n'$/( +Q Professor at the Departments of Political Science and 8nternational +elations,San Francisco State 5ni9ersit) Andrei P. s)gan@o9, C(C, *5SQ+ussia +elations in the Post

=estern =orld1 Springerin@G//IV

;9erall, cooperation etween the two countries has een less than impressi9e . Although the nature of thecurrent post=estern world prescries multilateral solutions, the 5nited States has continued to ma@e unilateraldecisions, such as ringing -eorgia to NA;without addressing +ussiaKs concerns or encouraging 5@raine towardNA; memership. 8t has armed narrowl) ased militaristic regimes in Aerai7an and -eorgia. Andit has sought to control the icePresident 2oe HidenKs speech in 0unich on Feruar) (, C Q to press the *reset utton1 on relations with 0oscow. henew administration has prioritied the stailiation of Afghanistan and expects the IremlinKs cooperation since terrorist camps andintense drug traffic@ing from the area create prolems for +ussia as well. 8n addition to continuous counterterrorist cooperation, the5nited States hopes to strengthen +ussiaKs support for nuclear nonproliferation and to coordinate reactions to the gloal economiccrisis.

3owe9er, +ussia remains suspicious aout 5S intentions and policies undermining +ussiansecurit) interests. his suspicion has its roots in the American support for the color re9olutions ,which man) in the Iremlin 9iew as directed at +ussia. +ussia feels humiliated ) what it sees as lac@ ofappreciation of its foreign polic) interests, and it argues that it was +ussia, not America, that hadto swallow the war in the Hal@ans, two rounds of NA; expansion, the 5S withdrawal from the

AH0 treat), militar) presence in


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UNSUSTAINABLE 6 MOTI9E

Rel!i$ns &ns&s!in!0le 6 ensi$ns $n 0$4 sides !nd n$ m$i/e f$" l$n#-e"m%$$.e"!i$n

K&%4ins( )Q directs the +ussian and 6urasian Program at the ladimir >ladimiro9ich counts onhis fingers all of the steps he has ta@en to conciliate =ashington, unpopular with his political elite, including closing down the

+ussian na9al ase at


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RELATIONS INEFFECTI9EUS-R&ssi! 'n$1 4e im.$"!n%e $f "el!i$ns 0& l!%' 4e "&s $ %!""y 4em $&="!4!m(,, homas, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for +ussian Affairs,a senior director at Iissinger Associates ,senior director for +ussia at the National Securit)


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OFFENSE


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RELATIONS BAD - CHINA WARIn%"e!sed 0il!e"!l en#!#emen 1i4 R&ssi! %!&ses C4in! l!s4-$& 6 fe!"s $f

en%i"%lemenMe!d( +Q 2ames


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situation there. 8n conclusion, Dai Vu has asserted that the 5S is carr)ing out Jsoft attac@K on


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that the 5nited States had grown warier of its intentions.


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RELATIONS BAD 6 AIDSRel!i$ns de/!s!e US d" .$li%y %"edi0iliy

W$lfe( + director of the 8nternational 3arm +eduction De9elopment Program at the ;penSociet) Foundations Daniel =olfe, E/E/(C, *5nhol) Alliance: 3ow a 5S+ussian Partnership5ndermines -ood Drug Polic)1 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/danielwolfe/usrussianrelationshipUU($"$".htmlG//IV

Foreign polic) ma@es unsa9or) edfellows, ut few instancesof edsharing are more dishearteningthanthat of the 5nited States and +ussia on the issue of illicit drugs. 5.S. drug car +. -il Ierli@ows@eand his +ussian counterpart,>ictor 89ano9, recentl) 7oined in a statementfrom the =orld Forum AgainstDrugs condemningdrug legaliation and urging commitment to policies ased on *e9idence andresearch.1 For the +ussians, this h)pocritical posturing is usiness as usual. For the 5nited States to put its name nextto the +ussians in such a statement is a credibilit'threatening ste, and shows how easil)international politics end the aims of pulic ser9ants who @now etter.

8n9ocation of the e9idencease) +ussian drug control officialswould e asurd if the results were notso tragic. +ussia has one of the fastest growing 38> epidemics in the world , with infections concentratedamong people who in7ect drugs. Nonetheless, the government has steadfastl refused toarove methadone or uprenorphine treatment, desitemultiple studies showing the

e&ectiveness of those medicines in reducing (I) risk behavior and cra9ingsfor opioids. 69en pro9iding information aout methadone and uprenorphinewhich are on the =orld 3ealth ;rganiationKslist of essential medicinesis a highris@ acti9it) in +ussia. Ph)sicians and nongo9ernmental organiations ha9e

een threatened with prosecutionor had their wesites summaril) closed ) 89ano9Ks Federal Drug


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*+esetting1 5.S.+ussian relations has een anexplicit priorit) of the ;ama Administration. Hutgo9ernment officials li@e Ierli@ows@e should also e ale to hit the e7ect utton when the truth is so latantl) sacrificedfor political ends. ;ND


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=hile a range of complex factors ha9e surel) affected the de9elopment of these contradictor) polic) deates, proal) nothinghas been more imortant than the olic ositions romotedand defendedinternationall) b the US government. 8ndeed, no matter which side of the deate one comes down on, for oragainst the war on drugs, all oser9ers agree that the 5S has een at the center of most of the ma7ordecisions and acti9ities dri9ing international drug polic)since its inception more than a centur) ago, and USolicies related to drugs have largel determined drug control ractices

globall. 69en in the wa@e of the gloal38> andA8DS epidemic, 5S commitment to the war ondrugs has een one of the central factors underl)ing resistance to the adoption of morescientificall)informed policies grounded in contemporar) pulic health approaches tohealthpromotion and disease pre9ention.

AIDS is 4e m$s des"&%i/e .!4$#en $f !ll ime( %$nin&ed s."e!d "is'sein%i$n@

M!4i& +333"/($, 0utuma, Africa News, exisG

69er) age has its @iller. Hut Aids is without precedent. 8t is comparale onl) to the Hlac@ Death of the 0iddle Ages in the terror ite9o@es and the gra9es it fills. Hut unli@e the plague, Aids does not come at a time of scientific innocence: 8t flies in the face of space

exploration, the manipulation of genes and the mapping of the human genome. he Hla c @ DeathQ the plague, toda) easil)cured ) antiiotics and pre9ented ) 9accines Q @illeda full # m illion6uropeans, a Ouarter of the population of 6urope,etween (%#" and (%$C. Hut it was adeaththat could e a9oided ) the simple expedient of changing addresses andwhose9ector could e seenand exte r m inated . =ith Aids, the 9ector is hu m anit) itsel f, the nice person in thenext seat in the us. here is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. 69er) human eing who expresses the innate desire to preser9ethe human genetic pool through the natural mechanism of reproduction is potentiall) at ris@. And whereas death .)plague was amerciful fi9e da)s of agon), 38> is not satisfied until )ears of stigma and excruciating

torture ha9e een wrought on its 9ictim. he p lague toll of tens of millions in two decadeswas a 9eritaleholocaust, ut itwill e nothing co m p ared to the 9iral holocaust: S o far, (&.& m i llionpeople are alread)dead#%. % m illion infected worldwide C#.$ m illion of them AfricansG car r ) the seeds of theirine9itale de m ise Q unwilling participants in a 0arch of the Damned. ast ) ear alone, C.& m illion li9es wentdown the drai n, &$ per cent of them African as a matter of fact, E, Af r icans will die tod a). he dail) toll inIen ) a is $.here has ne/e" 0een f$ ! 1!"on these shores thatwas s$ 1! n$n in its thirst forhuman lood. During the First =orld =ar, more than a million li9es were lost at the Hattle of the Somme alone, setting a trend that

was to ecome fairl) common, in which generals would use soldiers as cannon fodder the li9es of ( million )oung men weresacrificed for a cause that was 7udged to e more worthwhile than the dreams Q e9en the mere li9ing out of a lifetime Q of ageneration. Hut there was proffered an explanation: 8t was the honour of athing a attlefield with )oung lood, patriotism or simpl)racial pride. Aids, on the other hand, is a holocaust without e9en a lame or igoted 7ustification. 8t is simpl) a waste. 8t is death

contracted not in the attlefield ut in edrooms and other 9enues of furti9e intimac). 8t is difficult to r e me m er an)t i m e inhistor)when the s&"/i/!l $f 4e 4&m!n "!%e was so hopelessl) in 7eopard).


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RELATIONS BAD - N


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collapse. ?he mo9e off the dollar is ominous for the 5.S .,? sa)s Stroupe, who claims that +ussia and


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etween countries, then +ussia will get more mone) for its energ) exports.For example, the politicaldestailiation of Saudi Araia could e 9er) profitale for +ussia.At present, encouraging I"!ni!n n&%le!"!m0ii$ns, with the attending sanctions on 8ran, ma) also lead to higher +ussian profits .+ussia is also ma@ing economic mo9es into 6urope and 8srael. *+ussian t)coons are u)ing up the 8sraeli media,1 he said.*0eanwhile, +upert 0urdoch is under attac@ 7ust as he was starting to in9est in 6astern 6urope.1 Pompows@i pointed to the factthat 0urdochKs ri9al in the 5nited Iingdom is *former1 So9iet I-H officer Alexander eede9, who owns the 69ening Standard andis u)ing 0urdochKs News of the =orld which was closed down three wee@s ago in the wa@e of a scandal in which News of the

=orld was found ) Hritish police to ha9e hac@ed the phone calls of nearl) #, people, including memers of the +o)al famil).*oo@ at that,1 said Pompows@i.=hen 8 as@ed Pompows@i wh) the +ussian operati9es would loc@ 0urdoch in 6astern 6urope while ta@ing o9er his outlets in

Hritain, he explained: *8 elie9e 0oscow has to put down the alternati9e 9oices.1 =h) would this e necessar) 0oscow istr)ing to split off 6urope from America through the agenc) of antiAmerican acti9e measures.0urdochKs media outlets represent an ostacle to such an effort. *he late -en. ;dom elie9ed that the So9iet 5nion transformeditself into these different entities,1 noted Pompows@i. *Now the NA; states ha9e to understand this new complex of power, and

the) must ta@e notice.1 he danger, said Pompows@i, is that +ussia ma) *damage and destailie the structuresestalished after the Second =orld =ar, which were part of the =estern securit) s)stem .1 heofficial +ussian polic) is to create anew *securit) architecture for 6urope.1 his translates as 6urope without NA; Qthat is to sa), +uroe dominated b Russia.Pompows@i also spo@e of re9elations that the oming of the 5.S. 6mass) in -eorgia last )ear was carriedout ) +ussian -+5 officer0a7. Le9gen) Horiso9, and was coordinated ) +ussian militar)intelligence. =h) would +ussian militar) officials order an attac@ against a 5.S. 6mass) *8 elie9e the +ussian state iscompletel) in disarra),1 Pompows@i explained. *here are se9eral criminal powers within the state, all acting along different lines. 8thin@ in the end the) are lost. +ussia is a rogue state. 8t is completel) a rogue state.1 he idea is that +ussia is caught etween

nationalist, communist, mafia and ersat;rthodox


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dream of its wishful thin@ing, e9en when 0oscow turns to Y reanimating StalinKs cult of personalit) together with the ideolog) of the


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stimulants, the 5nited States has een wea@ened financiall), and is illprepared for further troule. Let troule ma) e on thehorion. +umors of an impending largescale terrorist attac@, greater in effect than /((, continue to ma@e the roundsG.

8n (& +ussian Foreign 0inister Le9gen) Prima@o9, a strategist and master sp), concei9ed of aneconomic alliance etween +ussia, 8ndia and


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when we allow the Americans and NA; to ha9e a presence there, we ha9e the upper hand. 8 e9en suspect thatwhat happenedhas produced a modernied strategic model .1 -one are the imperial urdens. +ussia can use its secretagent networ@s to lac@mail executi9es, politicians and intellectuals. 2ournalists can e oughtinexpensi9el), as it turns out. he disinformation campaigns of the Es, "s and &s ha9e laid the groundwor@ for a greatdeception. he =est thin@s the) are dealing with a new entit) in +ussia. Let the) are still dealing

with the house that Stalin uilt. *0) feeling is that the old personnel management s)stem has een

reinstalled from So9iet times,1said Ialashni@o9, explaining how the secret police can depri9euncooperati9e citiens of a li9elihood. *8n the So9iet 5nion )our personnel file followed )ou whene9er )ou changedfrom one 7o to another. Lour emplo)er sees an) lac@ mar@s set down ) pre9ious emplo)ers, and m) former emplo)er [theI-H4 was eager to ma@e life as difficult as possile. he) wanted to press us to the degree that

we would admit our defeat and failure, reconsidering our eha9ior.1 8n the =estwe were told thatthe So9iet s)stem was finished. =e were told thatthe


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R&ssi!n s."e!d des"$ys 4e e%$n$my( %$ll!.ses 4e#em$ny( #i/es 4em .$1e" $/e"$il s&..lies( !nd %!&ses e""$"ism

S$$s +33,[Freelance writer, oo@ re9iewer, and law)er =illiam, *Dangerous 8llusionsShadow =orld ) +oert


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RELATIONS BAD - ANTI AMERICANISMAem.s $ ."ese"/e "el!i$ns !dd f&el $ 4e !ni-Ame"i%!n fi"e 14i%4

&nde"mines %$$.e"!i$n( s.&""in# Mid-E!s ins!0iliyR&0in +3+[Foreign affairs columnist for he Philadelphia 8nOuirer rud), *PutinKs paranoia and 5.S. relations1 %/($/C(Chttp://www.miamiherald.com/C(C/%/($/CE$"E#/putinsparanoiaandusrelations.htmlWstor)lin@!cp)G A0a)ar4

ladimir Putin, newl) elected to a third presidential term after an inter9al as prime ministerG, has made clearhe elie9es =ashington has him in its crosshairs. *Nood) can impose their polic) on us,1 heproclaimedto a cheering crowd at his 9ictor) rall) near the Iremlin. *;ur people could recognie thepro9ocation from those who want to destro) the countr). he ;range scenario will ne9er [email protected] Putin was referring to the C# ;range +e9olution in the 5@raine, where street protests o9erturned a pro+ussian,antidemocratic president. he +ussian leader thin@s the 5nited States directed the ;range +e9olution.3e also thin@s that +ussians protesting rigged elections are paid ) the 5nited States. Some argue that +ussian foreign polic) wonKt

change much under Putin C.. 5.S. officials ha9e recei9ed assurances from highle9el +ussians that, withthe election o9er, 5.S.+ussian relations can return to a more normal @eel. Hut itKs hard toimagine cooperation on issues such as 8ran and S)ria with a man who feels such personal

animosit) toward the 5nited States. of eing sent to foment a re9olution. he unprecedented 9itriol directed 0cFaulKs

wa) indicates the depth of PutinKs suspicions aout 5.S. intentions.AntiAmericanism was acentral feature of the +ussian leaderKs presidential campaign, pla)ing on the innate suspicions of+ussians raised to thin@ the 5nited States was hostile. 8n the runup to the election, 8 heard antiAmericanrhetoricon state > tal@ thatwas so strident it would ha9e shoc@ed Polituro memers in the formerSo9iet 5nion. > stations also aired documentaries descriing 5.S. *plots1 to attac@ ordismemer +ussia and alleged American schemes to ma@e Putin resign. ;f course, such agitprop wasaimed at oosting the 9otes for Putin ) tarring opposition acti9ists as foreign agents. And it wor@ed: small wonder that a caiewho 9oted for Putin as@ed me, with deep sincerit), *=h) does America want to destro) us1 3owe9er, +ussian political anal)sts tell

me PutinKs antiAmericanism has much deeper roots than electioneering. 8t springs in part fromhis I-H indoctrination and from his feeling that =ashington reuffed him in his first term as

president. Smarting from +ussiaKs lost superpower status, and from NA;Ks expansion into 6astern 6urope, he wasangered at the Hush administrationKs assertion of gloal dominance and its 8raO war.o e fair,+ussiaKs interests in S)ria and 8ran do differ from AmericaKs.*0ost of those in the Putin entourage thin@S)rian President Hashar alAssad can tough it out and he will e extremel) grateful to +ussia,1 sa)s -eorgi 0irs@), one of +ussiaKsleading 0iddle 6ast experts. And Putin is itter that his support for humanitarian inter9ention in i)a led to a NA; militar)

inter9ention and regime change in ripoli. As for 8ran, sa)s 0irs@), *the +ussian foreign ministr) elie9es8ranian leaders are rational, not fanatics, and not determined to produce a om.1 8f Putin weremerel) using antiAmericanism to win 9otes, one still might imagine some 5.S.+ussiancooperationon issues where securit) interests o9erlap. hose would include stailiing

Afghanistan, or ma)e e9en curing 8ranKs nuclear program ) nonmilitar) means in order toa9oid more 0iddle 6ast loodshed. Hut if antiAmericanism has ecome PutinKs guiding principle a 9er) personal and deepl) held con9iction then itKs hard to imagine such cooperation.


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8f )ou sup with the +ussian go9ernment, )ouKd etter ring a long spoon.=hile some 5.S.Q+ussian cooperationappears to e happening on the surface, ehind the smiles, nast) surprises are often waiting . Noone @nows this etter than 5.S. Amassador to +ussia 0ichael 0cFaul , who assumed his post in 2anuar). 0cFaulhas een su7ect to s)stematic harassment ) thugs elonging to the +ussian )outh group Nashias well as the +ussian media.he attac@s started soon after 0cFaulKs arri9al ut ha9e intensified in recent [email protected] has e9en een accused of *arrogance1 ) +ussian Foreign 0inister Sergei a9ro9,who,

li@e his oss >ladimir Putin, seethes o9er 5.S. missile defense plans. he response to the +ussianpro9ocations from the 5.S. State Department ha9e not made much of an impact, nor would one expect them to. 0cFaulunderstandal) erupted in anger at eing followed e9er)where ) +ussian N>, ut he later apologied on witter. 8n a toughculture li@e +ussiaand an e9en tougher cit), 0oscowa much harder line from the 5.S. go9ernment would e needed to ma@e animpact, such as a credile threat to suspend cooperation, aid, or ongoing programs. 8n addition to the outrageous and unacceptale

attac@s on the 5.S. amassador, other examples of antiAmericanism include PutinKs reaction to thepopular protests that erupted in 0oscow after the +ussian parliamentar) elections in Decemer and also in 0arch following the +ussian presidential elections. Presidentelect Putin actuall) lamed thedemonstrations on 3illar) ;A roadcasters were warnedagainst co9ering +ussian election issues under threat of eing @ic@ed off the mar@et altogether. he fact that the 5.S. media mar@etis free lea9es it open to auses. Ne9ertheless, a tougher approach to reciprocit) in media access is clearl) needed.

Rel!i$ns 4!/e !l"e!dy %$ll!.sed 6 !em.in# $ ."ese"/e 4em 0"eeds !ni-Ame"i%!nism

Min%4e/ )*+7*+3+[Nonresident fellow with the -erman 0arshall Fund of the 5nited StatesB Hal@an rust forDemocrac) ;gn)an, *5nderstanding +ussiaBs AntiAmericanism1 2une C"thC(Chttp://www.realclearworld.com/articles/C(C/E/C"/understandingUrussiasUantiamericanismU((".htmlG A0a)ar4

he meeting of 5.S. President Harac@ ;ama and his +ussian counterpart>ladimir Putinat the -Csummit in 0exico onl) underscored the chill in relations etween 0oscow and =ashington. 8n fact,relations ha9e deteriorated steadil) since Putin replaced the ailing Horis Leltsin in (despite;amaBs amitious program to impro9e or ?reset? ilateral ties. oda) the reset is o9er, and the two leaders nolonger disguise their differences on most important international issues. For ;ama, the interment ofone of his administrationBs signature foreign polic) efforts at the outset of a reelection campaign is an unwelcome realiation. =ithfew triumphs in the international arena, ;ama undoutedl) loo@ed forward to citing impro9ed relations with +ussia as an

unOualified asset. For their part, +ussian leaders ha9e also seemed contemptuous of American hopes forrenewing their strained relationship. 5nder Putin, 0oscow has steadfastl) opposed =esternefforts to halt ci9ilian casualties in S)ria and international efforts to loc@ 8ranBs nuclear

program. 0ost pointedl), the new 5.S. Amassador to +ussia 0ichael 0cFaul a @e) author of thereset strateg) was pulicl) ostracied in a series of +ussian media exposRs.


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States and its allies to strategicall) and commerciall) penetrate postSo9iet


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his lieral opponents ?sca9enge li@e 7ac@als at foreign emassies .? 0eanwhile,illoards around0oscow proclaimed that ?PutinBs Plan 8s +ussiaBs >ictor).? 3is message is reinforced ) +ussiaBs stateownedtele9ision channels, which dominate the airwa9es, and man) of +ussiaBs ma7or papers. ?he enlargement of NA;,

AmericaBs actions in 8raO and -eorgiathe) irritate people, and the) want an explanation,?explains Andrei Harano9, a political editor at Putinfriendl) Iomsomols@a)a Pra9da, one of +ussiaBs largest papers.


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RELATIONS BAD - ANTI AMERICANISM IMPACTSAni-Ame"i%!nism 0"eeds e""$"ismLind0e"# e !l +33[he Princeton Pro7ect on National Securit) Q AntiAmericanism =or@ing -roup od inderg,


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suggested that the 5S toda) is similar to imperial Hritain and Spain. As the most powerful state,cannot please e9er)od).

Ani-Ame"i%!nism &nde"mines US 4e#em$nyLind0e"# e !l +33[he Princeton Pro7ect on National Securit) Q AntiAmericanism =or@ing -roup od inderg,


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ad9anced technologies such as lasers, iotechnolog), and ad9anced materials used in semiconductors, aerospace, and man) othert)pes of manufacturing. Although the 5nited StatesB technical dominance remains solid, the gloaliation of research andde9elopment is exerting considerale pressures on the American s)stem. 8ndeed, as the 5nited States is learning, gloaliation cuts

oth wa)s: it is oth a potent catal)st of 5.S. technological inno9ation and a significant threat to it. he5nited States will ne9er eale to pre9ent ri9als from de9eloping new technologies it can remain dominant onl) ) continuing to inno9atefaster than e9er)one else .Hut this wonBt e eas) to @eep its pri9ileged position in the world, the5nitedStates must get etter at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home.

="e! .$1e" 1!"B!"ne( [homas P.0. Former Senior Strategic +esearcher and Professor in the =arfare Anal)sis ' +esearch Department, pundit sells )ou theimage of ?unridled? American militar) power as the cause of gloal disorder instead of its cure. =ith selfdeprecation ordering onselfloathing, we now imagine a postAmerican world that is an)thing ut. 2ust watch who scatters and who steps up as theFaceoo@ re9olutions erupt across the Ara world. =hile we might imagine oursel9es the status Ouo power, we remain the worldBs

most 9igorousl) re9isionist force.As for the sheer ?e9il? that is our militar)industrial complex, again,letBs examine what the world loo@ed li@e efore that estalishment reared its ugl) head . he lastgreat period of gloal structural change was the first half of the Cth centur), a period that saw adeath toll of aout( million across 1$ 1$"ld 1!"s. hat comes to an a9erage of C million deaths a )ear ina world of approximatel) C illion souls. oda), with far more comprehensi9e worldwide reporting, researchers report an a9erage ofless than (, attle deaths annuall) in a world fast approaching " illion people. hough admittedl) crude, these

calculations suggest a percent asolute drop and a percent relati9e drop in deaths due to war. =e areclearl) headed for a world order characteried ) multipolarit), something the Americanirthed s)stem was designed to oth

encourage and accommodate. Hut gi9en how things turned out the last time we collecti9el) faced such a fluid structure, wewoulddo well to @eep 5.S. power, in all of its forms, deepl) emedded in the geometr) to come. o continue the historical sur9e),after sal9aging =estern 6urope from its halfcentur) of ci9il war, the 5.S. emerged as the progenitor of a new, far more 7ust form ofgloaliation one ased on actual free trade rather than colonialism. America then successfull) replicated gloaliation further in6ast Asia o9er the second half of the Cth centur), setting the stage for the Pacific


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American world. he result, predictal) enough for manicdepressi9e America, is that weB9e sworn off an) o9erall responsiilit) forthe South, e9en as we retain the right to go an)where and @ill an) indi9iduals preferal) with fl)ing roots that we deemimmediatel) threatening to our narrowl) defined national securit) interests. he prolem with this approach is that


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RELATIONS BAD - LAUNDR LISTUS-R&ssi!n "el!i$ns f&els !ni-!me"i%!nism !nd R&ssi!n n!i$n!lism( des"$ys

4e#( m!'es &s-R&ssi! 1!" ine/i!0le( &nde"mines n$n-."$lif( !ll$1sR&ssi!n e.!nsi$nism( en!0les #en$%ide( I"!ni!n ."$lif

C$4en +3+[Senior +esearch Fellow for +ussian and 6urasian Studies and 8nternational 6nerg) Polic), he Iathr)n andShel)


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repeatedl) declared that it is not competing with +ussia for regional influencenot in the 0iddle 6astand not in 6urasia. Apparentl), the Iremlin has not recei9ed the memo . 8nstead, +ussia is attempting to constrain5.S. foreign polic) with little or no counteraction from =ashington. 0oscow would li@e to see the 5.S. power sodiminished in the 0iddle 6ast and 6urope that America could not act without +ussiaKspermission.[$4 o address PutinKs antiAmerican foreign polic), the U.S. should/ Ree0amine thestrateg of #reset$ with Russia.he President should commission the National Securit)


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crisis caused a significant decline in oil and gas re9enues, the principal source of income for the +ussian econom) and thego9ernment. Heginning in the fall of C&, the financial resources for +ussiaBs asserti9e foreign and defense polic) dwindled, with+ussiaBs massi9e hard currenc) reser9es declining from aout E illion to aout # illion. 3owe9er, economic growthresumed in the second Ouarter of C efore the reser9es were exhausted. +ussia has een an important 5.S. foreign polic) priorit)

since =orld =ar 88. For decades, the 5.S. has stri9ed to ring +ussia into the international s)stem as apredictale and constructi9e partner. =hile progress in international securit) has een slow and difficult, as shown )the August C& war in -eorgia and +ussian intransigence on 8ran, the prospects of progress in usiness and economics appears

more promising. Despite the downturn, +ussia has poc@eted the;amaAdministrationBs concessions onmissile defense deplo)ment in Poland and the alle) in


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current economic crisis in 0a) C&, +ussiaBs economic fortunes egan to re9erse with a series of hea9)handed go9ernment fora)sinto economic management. Prolems egan with disruptions from accelerating inflation, accentuated ) PutinBs pulic and harshcriticism of the 0echel


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Iremlin has shown no significant cooperation on 8ran. 8t has unOuestioningl) recognied the results of thecontested 8ranian presidential election and pro9ided a stage for President 0ahmoud Ahmadine7ad at the Shanghai


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he first and ) far most dangerous possiilit) is what 8 call the power scenario. Supporters of this option would, in the name of a ?unitedand undi9ided +ussia,? radicall) change domestic and foreign policies. 0an)would see@ to re9i9e a dictatorship and ta@eurgent militar) steps to moilie the people against the outside ?enem).? Such steps would include +ussiaBsdenunciation of the commitment to nofirstuse of nuclear weapons suspension of the Strategic Arms +eduction reat) SA+G 8 and refusal to ratif)

oth SA+ 88 and the


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RELATIONS BAD - CENTRAL ASIAN INSTABILITUS-R&ssi!n "el!i$ns !ll$1 f$" R&ssi!n ine"/eni$n in 4e CIS 6 %!&ses Cen"!l

Asi!n( C!&%!s&s( !nd N!#$"n$-K!"!0!'4 ins!0iliyC$4en !nd Bl!n'( Ariel


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=hile 5@raine ac@trac@ed on its pro=estern position of the post;range era C#QC(G, 0oscowKs attempts topressure 5@rainesince the ilateral +ussianQ5@rainian accords of C( ha9e alread) led to a stead)deterioration in +ussianQ5@rainian relations, as 0oscowKs pressure upon it is unremitting.8n 0oldo9a, no progress has een made in restoring the countr)Ks territorial integrit) and withdrawing the remaining +ussian troopssince (C, when a +ussianac@ed arm) detached the Sla9icma7orit) ransnistria region and instituted a criminalied rule there.

8n NagornoIaraa@h, although 0oscowmediated, with 5.S. support, etween Ha@u and Lere9an to achie9e peace, italso attained a ase in-)umri,Armenia, until C#C and secured the sales of up to C illion cuic meters of Aeri naturalgas per )ear to +ussia. 0eanwhile, the recent failure of the +ussiansponsored summit etween Armenia and

Aerai7an opens the wa) to renewed hostilities in NagornoIaraa@h that would undermine5.S. o9erall regional interests in the


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can e transformed into mediumrange allistic missile capailit). ast month the +ussian defense minister announced that +ussiawill suppl) supersonic P& La@hont ram7et supersonic antiship cruise missiles to S)ria. hese missiles are a ma7or threat to the5.S. Sixth Fleet in the 0editerranean and to AmericaKs staunchest all) in the 0iddle 6ast, 8srael. H) expanding weapons sales and

maintaining ties with 3amas and 3eollah, +ussia is tr)ing to muscle its wa) ac@ into the 0iddle 6astthrough the use of neoSo9iet tactics: arms sales and the support of radicals.hus, the 4remlin is e0loiting Obama1s #see no evil$ aroach in Russia1se0ansioninto former So9iet space and cooperation with anti=estern regimes. +ussia has also

prioritied its Arctic expansion and persists in its claim to a 9ast territor) in the Arctic ;cean greater than -erman), France, and 8tal) comined. 0oscow declared the Northern Sea +oute around the northern edge of 6urasia

as its territorial waters and is ac@ing up its claimunder the aw of the Sea reat)with militar) force.+esetting the +eset. he ;ama Administration elie9es that it needs strong international support for its militar) campaigns inAfghanistan and 8raO as well as for confrontation with 8ran, and North Iorea, and, in the long run, possil)


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despite its economic drawac@s, ecause +ussia often emphasies its strong militar) and securit) apparatusmore thanand sometimes at the expense ofG economic de9elopment.+ussian power must e measured in terms of the strength of the state and its ailit) to rule the people. his is not the same as the+ussian go9ernmentKs popularit) though former president and current Prime 0inister >ladimir PutinKs popularit) is undenialeG itis the ailit) of the +ussian leadership, whether car,


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power for at least another generation. his means that the next few )ears li@el) are +ussiaKs last great moment one that will e marked b the countr1s return as a regional emire and a newconfrontation

with its pre9ious ad9ersar), the 5nited States.


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RELATIONS BAD - HE=EMON*CENTRAL ASIA WAR

R&ssi! 1ill &se "el!i$ns $ f&"4e" 4ei" $1n .$1e" $/e" 4e USB"$$'s 5 Doctoral candidate at -eorgetown 5ni9ersit) graduate of the 5.S. Na9al Academ)achelorBs degree in engineeringG the Defense anguage 8nstitute diploma in +ussianG theNa9al =ar


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Rel!i$ns 1ill %!&se ! R&ssi!n in/!si$n $f .$s-S$/ie n!i$ns 6 es%!l!es $Cen"!l Asi!n 1!"

C$4en( Q Ph.D., Senior +esearch Fellow in +ussian and 6urasian Studies and 8nternational6nerg) Securit) in the Douglas and Sarah Allison


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meaning, who is going to get how ig a cut of the pieG. Such pett) ic@ering etra)s the trust that their people ha9e placed in them.here are also those in the 5.S. whose organiational udgets and press co9erage depend on supporting re9olutions of differentcolors. he) disregard that the polic) outcomes of the re9olutions the) support ma) e negati9e for the countr) in9ol9ed and not inline with 5.S. interests. For example, radical 8slamist forces coming to power through the allot ox will not contriute to 5.S.

securit) an) more than did the ?democraticall)? elected ladimir Putin and senior +ussian officials ha9e said that the) do not mind changeut want itto come without 9iolations of the law and constitutions. 3owe9er, 0oscow applies this paradigm to thoseregimes that ma@e it uncomfortale, such as 5@raine, ut not to those authoritarian states

which 9iolate their own laws and 7ail or @ill their own citiens, such as Helarus, ur@menistan,

and 5e@istan. +ussia should wor@ with the 5nited States and the 6uropean 5nion to promote, not hinder, democrac) in the


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delieratel) downpla)s traditional American 9alues for the sa@e of *9ital national interests.1 his call sounds li@e the9intage Nixonian +ealpoliti@ and smac@s of the )ietnam'era decline'ism. Prominent Americanpoliticians eg to differ with Allison and his coauthors, howe9er. 8n his recent =ashington PostKs +ight urn inter9iew, 0itt+omne) warned that >ladimir Putin dreams of *reuilding the +ussian empire1, excoriated the use of energ) as a geopoliticalweapon, Ouestioned the wisdom of letting 0oscow into =; if it *intends to cheat1, and called for a *show of strength.1 8n a recentspeech at he 3eritage Foundation, 3ouse Spea@er 2ohn Hoehner hit the nail on the head: *8K9e read that the second phase of the+esetYwill deal with democrac) and human rightsY [S4houldnKt these 9alues e at the forefront1 he Spea@er is right, of course,ut Allison et al. suggest that the 5.S. should ignore those +ussians stri9ing for democrac) and allow 0oscow to uild a sphere ofinfluence in the former So9iet area Q 7ust when >ladimir Putin ad9ocates in his *6urasian 5nion1 concept. Surel), +onald +eagan,who supported Andre) Sa@haro9 and Alexander Solhenits)n, and >acla9 3a9el and ech =alensa, would not appro9e. he AllisonHlac@willSimes report fails to realie that American foreign polic) has mo9ed on since 2imm)


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RELATIONS BAD - +NC CENTRAL ASIA WAR IMPACTSD"!1s in #"e! .$1e"sPeim!ni( +Q PhD in 8nternational +elations with a focus on regional securit) from ueenKs5ni9ersit) 3ooman, CC, *Failed ransition, Hlea@ Future: =ar and 8nstailit) in


55/84

his is a necessit) for economic de9elopment at a time when


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Cen"!l Asi!n ins!0iliy s.ills $/e" $ des!0ili:e Af#4!nis!nFe"#4!n!( ,Q political news agenc) in


57/84

RELATIONS BAD - US AERBAI8ANI RELATIONSR&ssi!n "el!i$ns de/!s!e US-A:e"0!i>!ni "el!i$ns 6 'ey $ EU ene"#y se%&"iy(

NATO( !nd dem$%"!%yH&seyn$/ !nd 9!4!0$/( 3Q Assistant Professor of Finance at North Da@ota State5ni9ersit) AND research fellow, 8nternational 0anagement 8nstitute, former 5.S. des@ officer atthe 0inistr) of Foreign Affairs of Aerai7an Fari 3use)no9 and amerlan >ahao9, E/(/(,*;amaKs polic) toward the


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RELATIONS BAD - HE=EMON*IRAN PROLIF

US-R&ssi!n "el!i$ns %!&ses .$1e" 0!l!n%in# !#!ins 4e USL&'y!n$/ +33 [6ditor in chief of the 7ournal +ussia in -loal Affairs F)odor, *+ethin@ing +ussia : +ussian Dilemmas in a0ultipolar =orld1 >ol. E%, No. C, Spring/Summer C( page (%C http://7ia.sipa.columia.edu/russiandilemmasmultipolarworldG A0a)ar4

Hut if the recognition of American leadership ) all other states is unli@el), e9er)thing willdepend on the eha9ior of the 5nited States: whether it will tr) to estalish its position ) force,or instead demonstrate its readiness to ecome the first among eOuals . After all, periods of isolationismin 5.S. histor) ha9e generall) een longer than periods of transcontinental and gloaldomination. his is how the international s)stem is seen ) 0oscow, where the idea of multipolarit) haseen discussed since the mid(s. 3ow does such a 9iew of the world affect +ussiaKs foreign polic) +ussiaKs foreignpolic)can e roughl) di9ided into two uneOual periods. he first one, from the So9iet 5nionKs rea@up to around C", wascharacteried ) a desire to integrate into the existing international institutions and recei9e a worth) place at the tales wheredecisions are made. 8n the (s, especiall) in the first half of the decade, 0oscow was read) to assume a suordinate status. ater,

howe9er, itegan to demand an eOual sa) at the tale. Ne9ertheless, +ussiaKs goals remainedunchanged oth under Horis Leltsin and >ladimir Putin. hroughout those )ears, +ussiaKs priorities included:inclusion into the


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positions in the 6urasian space. For example, it appears that 0oscowKs interest in cooperation with nonconformist states of atin America>eneuela, Nicaragua, Holi9ia and 6cuadorgrew mar@edl) as the5nited States increased its presence in the postSo9iet space. ;ne expert has descried thepresent state of +ussian5.S. relations as *tra9eling in different oats.1 *;n the whole, the newOualit) of +ussian5.S. relations is another essential element of the multipolar picture of the

world. A confrontational model stems from the ipolar past. Partnerships and alliances are elements of either

Jfriendl) ipolarit),K which ne9er materialied, or of a unipolar world under 5.S. leadership, which also failed to produceresults.1(E he paradox of the relationship etween +ussia and the 5nited States is that othparties see each other as a declining power. America does not elie9e in the future of +ussia , acountr) with a diminishing population, a degrading infrastructure, and a lopsided econom) which is sandwiched etween economicgrowth centers. >ice President 2oe Hiden openl) said as much last )ear.(" +ussiaKs claim to the role of an independent pole is not

ta@en seriousl), especiall) amid the growth of *real1 giants li@e


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U@S@-R&ssi! "el!i$ns %!&se ! R&ssi!n in/!si$n $f Cen"!l Asi! !nd 4"e!en U@S@le!de"s4i.

C$4en( 5Q Ph.D., Senior +esearch Fellow in +ussian and 6urasian Studies and 8nternational6nerg) Securit) at the Iathr)n and Shel)


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) Le9gen) 0. Prima@o9,leader of the 6urasianist school of foreign polic). 0an) 6urasianists tend to 9iew America as astrategic ad9ersar). Prima@o9 was Horis LeltsinBs sp) chief and later ecame a foreign minister and then prime minister. 8n (#,under Prima@o9Bs direction, the +ussian Foreign 8ntelligence Ser9ice pulished a report calling for +ussian domination of the ?near

aroad?the newl) independent states that emerged from the rule of the collapsed So9iet empire. ater, Prima@o9championed the notion of a multipolar world, in which 5.S. influence would e crowded out )+ussia, ladimir Putin and 0ed9ede9 are echoing Prima@o9, calling for a newgeopolitical and economic architecturenot onl) in 6urope ut throughout entire worldasedon massi9e spheres of influence. +ussia wants to e a regional leader, capitaliing on its militar)powerand willingness to use itG, its uniOue geopolitical position from the Atlantic to the Pacific, itsmassi9e energ) resources, and its gas and oil pipelines as a force multiplier. 0oscow 9iews


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fundamentall) antilieral and antiAmerican orientation . he proposalKs 9aguenessenefits onl)+ussia and


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RELATIONS BAD - NATO TURN

U@S@-R&ssi! "el!i$ns !lien!e NATO !nd $4e" E&"$.e!n !llies 6 4! des"$ys"el!i$ns

FPI( 3Q a nonprofit, nonpartisan taxexempt organiation under Section $(cG%G of the5.S. 8nternal +e9enue


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toward a ?+ussia onl)? approach, neglecting and e9en aandoning other countries in the region.he most glaring example of this trend came this wee@. 8n a message accompan)ing the =hite 3ouseBs resumission to


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elie9e that sa)ing nothing aout Iremlin crac@downs on domestic opponents would @eep0oscow on oard And what if all this isnBt enough 0oscow is li@el) to @eep raising the fee forits cooperation in effect, extorting the 5nited States. For )ears, Hush administration polic)toward +ussia re9ol9ed around efforts to wor@ with 0oscow where9er possile ut to push ac@

whene9er necessar), especiall) after the in9asion of -eorgia. ;ur +ussia polic) was far from perfect the pasteight )ears, ut the chief prolems lie in 0oscow, and impro9ed relations are unli@el) until the) are sorted out. 0oscow sees

its surroundings in re9isionist, erosum terms. +ussia has tried to maintain a ?sphere ofinfluence? along its orders, regardless of neighoring statesB desires to lean westward . 0oscowis threatened ) 5@rainian and -eorgian ties with NA;, e9en though NA;Bs eastward growth has een asource of stailit) o9er the past decade. +ussia 9iews multiple pipeline routes from


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RELATIONS BAD - IRAN*EUROPEAN INSTABILITT4e "ese is !n ill&si$n 6 U@S@-R&ssi! "el!i$ns e.edie I"!ni!n n&%le!"

."$life"!i$n !nd E&"$.e!n ins!0iliyK!#!n( 3Q senior associate at the


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RELATIONS BAD - IRAN PROLIFRel!i$ns "ed&%e 4e effe%i/eness $f s!n%i$ns 6 %!&ses I"!n ."$life"!i$n

Weiss( + Q cochair of the 3enr) 2ac@son Societ)Bs +ussia Studies


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heir fi9e *9ital national interests1 are: nuclear nonproliferation, stailit) in 6urope and Asia with continued 5.S. presence, counterterrorist efforts, stailit) of energ) suppl), and international economic stailit).An) other considerations are declared secondar) and worth sacrificing to achie9e cooperation in these few areas. Forget humanrights and democrac) forget assistance to 5.S. friends and allies that neighor +ussia.*5.S. go9ernment continues to ha9e no alternati9e ut to wor@ with undemocratic go9ernments when important national interestsare at sta@e,1 the report reads. =hile this was the case during the ietnamera declineism.

Prominent American politicians eg to differ with Allison and his coauthors, howe9er. 8n his recent =ashington PostKs +ight urninter9iew, 0itt +omne) warned that >ladimir Putin dreams of *reuilding the +ussian empire1, excoriated the useof energ) as a geopolitical weapon, Ouestioned the wisdom of letting 0oscow into =; if it *intends to cheat1, and called for a *showof strength.18n a recent speech at he 3eritage Foundation, 3ouse Spea@er 2ohn Hoehner hit the nail on the head: *8K9e read that the secondphase of the +esetYwill deal with democrac) and human rightsY [S4houldnKt these 9alues e at the forefront1

he Spea@er is right, of course, utAllison et al. suggest that the 5.S. should ignore those +ussiansstri9ing for democrac) and allow 0oscow to uild a sphere of influence in the former So9iet areaQ7ust when >ladimir Putin ad9ocates in his *6urasian 5nion1 concept. Surel), +onald +eagan, whosupported Andre) Sa@haro9 and Alexander Solhenits)n, and >acla9 3a9el and ech =alensa, would not appro9e.

he AllisonHlac@willSimes report fails to realie thatAmerican foreign polic) has mo9ed onsince 2imm)


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RELATIONS BAD - RUSSIAN DEMOCRACR&ssi!n "el!i$ns ."e/en de/el$.men $f R&ssi!n dem$%"!%y

Weiss( + Q cochair of the 3enr) 2ac@son Societ)Bs +ussia Studies


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RELATIONS BAD - HUMAN RI=HTSRel!i$ns !ll$1 R&ssi! $ #e !1!y 1i4 4&m!n "i#4s /i$l!i$nsC$4en +3+[Senior +esearch Fellow for +ussian and 6urasian Studies and 8nternational 6nerg) Polic), he Iathr)n andShel) ani@ Amendment arred the 5.S. from granting that status to an)countr) that restricts emigration. Designed primaril) to free So9iet 2ews and other minorities from state repression, theamendment is largel) nonresponsi9e to conditions in postSo9iet +ussia. hatBs wh) e9er) American president, with the exceptionof +onald +eagan, has routinel) granted 0oscow a wai9er from the amendment since the collapse of the So9iet empire. Hut thatBs

not to sa) that toda)Bs +ussia oasts a stellar human rights record. 8ndeed,asicrights, including the right to ownpropert), are attac@ed persistentl) and s)stematicall). And +ussia remains the onl) -& countr)

with political prisoners.For starters, it should emracelegislation such as the SenateBs ipartisan Sergei0agnits@)+ule of aw and Accountailit) Act. he act is named after +ussian whistlelower Sergei 0agnits@), whose deaths)molies the s)stemic and often 9iolent corruption in postcommunist +ussia. A %")earold attorne), 0agnits@) unco9ered andexposed a C% million emelement scheme in9ol9ing law enforcement and tax officials. Swiftl) arrested on trumpedup taxcharges, he died in prison. SuseOuent in9estigation ) the +ussian Presidential


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RELATIONS BAD - MID EAST STABILITR&ssi!n !ni-Ame"i%!nism %"e!es Middle E!se"n ins!0iliyC!/es e !l +33[Princeton as@ Force on AntiAmericanism, 2ohn


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RELATIONS BAD - BOUT ARMS SALES

Rel!i$ns me!n B$& is "ele!sedB$4m( *2/(C 0ichael Hohm, 0oscow imes, *;amaBs useless Hout troph)1http://rth.ru/articles/C(C/$/%/oamasUuselessUoutUtroph)U($$E(.htmlG//IV

his is wh) the Hout affair, contrar) to popular opinion in +ussia, is, in realit), an alatross around ;amaBs nec@ if for no other reason that it is a ma7or irritant for the Iremlin that could hurt the ?reset,? oneof ;amaBs topforeign polic) initiati9es.8f reelected in No9emer, ;ama will certainl) loo@ for wa)s to settle the Hout affair and a9oid a prolongedconflict with +ussia, which is determined to @eep this issue a top priorit) in 5.S.+ussian relations.HoutBs C$)ear prison sentence has dri9en +ussia into a corner. Perhaps the onl) wa) for the Iremlin to secure HoutBs return is toarrest Americans in +ussia on espionage or other serious charges and then offer to exchange them for Hout. Although this could leadto a sharp escalation in 5.S.+ussian tensions particularl) if 5.S. citiens are hastil) sentenced in a +ussian court on trumpedupcharges these t)pes of exchanges tend to calm relations in the long term.

6xchanging Hout would clearl) upset the 5.S. go9ernment agencies that wor@ed so hard toorganie the elaorate sting operationand capture the ?merchant of death,? who the) consider a 9aluale troph) andcareerooster. Hut in the end, these agencies report to ;ama, who understands that impro9ing5.S.+ussian relations is much more importantthan collecting trophies.

B$& !"m s!les %!&se ins!0iliy !nd %i/il 1!"s in S$&4 Ame"i%!( 4e Middle E!s(!nd Af"i%!

Ne&meise"( 3Q citing homas 3arrigan, chief of operations at the Drug 6nforcementAdministration arr), ((/("/(, *5.S. Defends >i@tor Hout 6xtradition1http://www.huffingtonpost.com/C(/((/("/fedsdefend9i@toroutextraditionUnU"&$.htmlG//IV

homas 3arrigan, D6A chief of operations, toldhe Associated Press that the arrest, extradition andprosecutionof Houtwere ?a 9ictor) for us all.?3e said the case was especiall) important ecause ?of the access 0r. Hout had to weapons? and hisailit) to spread them to remote parts of the world.?=e go where the e9idence ta@es us,? 3arrigan said, noting that what started as a drug proe grew into an international weaponssmuggling in9estigation that too@ agents halfwa) around the gloe.

At the news conference, 3arrigan said e9idence would show that Hout ?said he preferred murdering Americans.?3e predicted tens of thousands of people could ha9e died if Hout made the weapons deli9eries hepromised.?For >i@tor Hout, 7ustice will finall) e ser9ed,? he said.

-out has been accused of suling weaons that fueled civil wars inSouth merica, the Middle +ast and frica , with clients ranging from ieriaBs


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he indictment laels Hout an international weapons traffic@er who assemled a fleet of cargoplanes to transport weapons and militar) eOuipment to 9arious failed states and to insurgents inhird =orld countries from the (s until his arrest in Hang@o@ in 0arch C&.


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RELATIONS BAD - SOFT POWERR&ssi!n !ni-Ame"i%!nism des"$ys US s$f .$1e"C$4en e !l@ )*+/C(C [Helle C@ D!leis Senior Fellow in Pulic Diplomac) in the Douglas and Sarah Allison


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main source of news and information for +ussian and international media outlets. ;ther +ussian news agencies, such as the9enerale 8A+ASS and 8nterfax, are either state owned or closel) connected to the go9ernment. Swa)ing the ;pinions of the

+ussian Diaspora. For the first time since the collapse of the So9iet 5nion, the +ussian diaspora is no longer 9iewedas necessaril) anti


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RELATIONS BAD - NA=ORNO-KARABAKH IMPACTSC$nfli% #$es n&%le!"Bl!n'( +333[Stephen, CC, 5.S. Arm) =ar


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a former and potential attlefieldG, and e9en to 9isit the actual front trench along the Jline of contactK facing similar Aerai7anitrenches less than two hundred meters distant. 0) parallel con9ersations with Iaraa@h officials and with se9enteen representati9esof ci9il societ) focused on securit) issues and the potential for renewed war. =hile much of what 8 saw from the ground le9el wasfamiliar to me from o9erhead imager), it was not the trenches, tan@ traps, mine fields and artiller) positions which deepened m)concern, ut the con9ersations with oth soldiers and ci9ilians.a@ing this experience in con7unction with monitoring of the Iaraa@h dispute since (( in a 9ariet) of official and nonofficialcapacities, 8 percei9e fi9e interloc@ing tendencies which could produce another war.Fi9e dri9ers towards war

First, the ceasefireof (# has not ameliorated the dispute, ut rather deepened the estrangementetween the parties. he result isnot a Jnowar, nopeaceK, ut rather a prewar en9ironment. =ith theethnic cleansing of the pre9ious Aerai7ani populationof Iaraa@h and the surrounding occupied territories,plus the almost total migration of the respecti9e ethnic communities from Armenia and Aerai7an, there is almost no nongo9ernmental contact etween the two nations. Ad9ersarial propagandaon oth sides accentuatesstereot)pes and hatreds.Iaraa@h itself, which was genuinel) multiethnic during the So9iet period, is now entirel) Armenian ut with much of the territor)and communities formerl) occupied ) Aerai7anis simpl) empt). ;n the edge of Iaraa@h are the ruins of Aghdam, once athri9ing communit) of fort) thousand ut toda) a 9ast expanse of gutted former dwellings. =hile some of the surrounding land isculti9ated, the Armenian farmers are purel) seasonal. hroughout the region is the star@ e9idence of former inhaitants now li9ingas refugees in Aerai7an. ;ften, onl) their cemeteries remain more or less intact. he )ounger people with whom 8 spo@e ha9e little

or no acti9e memor) of an Aerai7ani, and then onl) in a wartime context. his ph)sical estrangement has resultedin a tendenc) to dehumanie the Jother,K a per9asi9e Oualit) in statements from oth sides .Second, the mediation of the socalled 0ins@ -roupcochairs +ussia, France, the 5nited StatesG of the;rganiation for Securit) and


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of contact and the often formidale terrain, let alone the unwillingness of oth sides to dampen tensions. 8t ears noting that this@ind of sniping preceded the August C& war o9er South ;ssetia.

Fifth, the most worrisome element is the growing expectation on oth sides that a renewed warma) not onl) e ine9itale ut e9en e desirale . Noone thin@s a new war would e a ca@ewal@ Q memories of thehuman cost of the ((# fighting are too fresh Q ut man) imagine war would JsettleK the dispute on fa9oraleterms or at least rea@ free from the diplomatic impasse. he danger is perhaps not so much a delierateand rational resort to war, ut rather a de9eloping confrontation in which neither side has the politicalcourage openl) to ac@ awa) from conflict.6ach side condescends to its opponent, oth politicall) and militaril). Aerai7anis argue that the countr)Ks massi9e militar)spending has altered the pre9ious alance of forces in its fa9our and, hence, a short if lood) campaign could restore Aerai7aniso9ereignt) in Iaraa@h and the national honor. he Armenians elie9e that Aerai7ani mone) does not eOuate to militar) s@ill andthat Iaraa@h plus, of course, +epulic of ArmeniaG forces not onl) can withstand an Aerai7ani assault ut could turn the taleswith maneu9er warfare aimed to expand Iaraa@hKs current frontiers, or e9en to ta@e the fighting as far as Ha@u.


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RELATIONS BAD -ET 6 RELATIONS QMULTIPOLARIT

R&ssi! 1ill &se #$$d "el!i$ns $ %"e!e ! m&li.$l!" 1$"ldL&'y!n$/ +33 [6ditor in chief of the 7ournal +ussia in -loal Affairs F)odor, *+ethin@ing +ussia : +ussian Dilemmas in a0ultipolar =orld1 >ol. E%, No. C, Spring/Summer C( page (%C http://7ia.sipa.columia.edu/russiandilemmasmultipolarworldG A0a)ar4

he *reset1 of +ussian5.S. relations, proposed ) President Harac@ ;ama, has stalled ecausediscussions etween the two countries ignore the main su7ectnamel), the correlation etweentheir interests in the 6urasian space. +ussia, as a regional power,9iews this territor) as a one of itslegitimate and immediate interests. he 5nited States, as a gloal power,9iews the same territor)from the perspecti9e of strengthening its position as the world leader . hisas)mmetr)is indicati9eof the inefficienc) of the interactions etween the two countries. 8n +ussia, for example, somepeopleargue that 0oscow should not support =ashington in its conflict with 8ran, ecause Americanpower in the 0iddle 6ast, has een waning. Furthermore, these critics contend that +ussia should not spoilits relations with ehran, which is ecoming an increasingl) influential pla)er in the region . his isnot least due to the fact that the 5nited States destro)ed the main counterweight to 8ran, Saddam 3usseinKs 8raO, and thus damagedregional stailit).

US-R&ssi! "el!i$ns 0"eed Sin$-R&ssi!n %!lls f$" m&li.$l!"iyM!$ +332[Assistant Professor at the National Defense 5ni9ersit) 0anagement


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RELATIONS BAD -RUSSIA WAR

Rel!i$ns !"e ! s4!m - R&ssi! is ."e.!"in# f$" 1!" 14i%4 #$es n&%le!"M%=&i"e +3[News=ith>iews.com writer Q Ouotes +ussian ;fficials Paul, *8S +5SS8AP+6PA+8N- ; AA


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RELATIONS BAD -IRANRel!i$ns !ll$1 R&ssi! $ #e !1!y 1i4 4el.in# I"!n #e 4e 0$m0F!""!"-Wellm!n +33[


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RELATIONS BAD 6 OILUS !lli!n%e 1i4 R&ssi! 1ill ens&"e $il &se !nd ."$d&%i$n in 4e f&&"eB!"nes( ,2oe, Honner means a@er fellow, *5S +ussia +elations: +ecommendations for the Next

Administration1G

The current economic downturn and decline in oil and gas prices make investment in future Russian production unattractive. But in the longterm, increased +ussian oil Q and.we should not forget, natural gas production will e critical inmeeting world energ) demand. =hate9er the duration of the current gloal recession, economicgrowth will e9entuall) return and, with it , rising demand for olil and gas. his is particularl)true for


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RELATIONS BAD 6 CHINESE =ROWTH

US R&ssi! Alli!n%e s$.s C4in! ="$14="!4!m( 3, homas, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for +ussian

Affairs, a senior director at Iissinger Associates ,senior director for +ussia at the NationalSecurit)

russian relations resps 7wk

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