roundtable 2007 bright_02
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Subscriber Acquisition Program
One year later….
Or: Why keeping all that data is so valuable
Circulation: Unified Strategy
Analysis Tools
Enhance Database
Demographics Geography Lifestyle/Lifestage PRIZM
Universe of Addresses
Targeted and Integrated Campaigns
Track Results
Track Results
Telephone Numbers email addresses
Focus: Understanding High Value
Quadrant View (Last year)
Quadrant View (This year)
Focused Retention
Box
Last Year
= Mature = Younger Years = Family Years
This year: With the Retention Box
Quadrants Last Year
Quadrants This Year
Blended Quadrants Next Year?
Segmentation Last Year Non-subscribers, Grouped by modeled groupings based on PRIZMne, sub-
grouped by Generations (Boomers +, Gen X/ Millennial)
< 40 < 40 40+ 40+
8
Segmentation This Year Non-subscribers, Grouped by modeled groupings based on PRIZMne, sub-grouped by
Generations, sub-grouped by ex-subscriber status, then by Last Stop Reason, then by
income and finally a few other attributes as we feel the need in an individual mailing...
< 40 < 40 40+ 40+
1 to 2 yr
< 1yr
2 to 3 yr
3 + yr
Never
1 to 2 yr
< 1yr
2 to 3 yr
3 + yr
Never
R1 R2 R1 R2 R1 R2 R1 R2
Call
/ M
ail
Gro
upin
gs
1800ish
Typically use
120 segments
with 3 creative
versions.
Execution last year
Execution This year
Execution this year
Our Standard Rotation
The Phoenix Segmentation Model
Your segmentation model
Baseline Good Starting Point
Start Slow
Work your way up
ZIP Code
Groupings Cloning High value
PRIZM’s
Form a plan (Last year) • Quick overview (circ acquisition) ---
– Where are my customers, where aren’t my
customers?
– Concentration of potentials?
• Crewing vs. Direct Mail vs. Sampling
– Test vs. Control group (simple A/B design)
– Versions of mail piece? (tuned to geography)
– Creative approval
– Timing of mail drop (holidays, events)
– Oops, forgot ?????
Form a plan (This year) • Quick overview (circ acquisition) ---
– High value customers
– Concentration of potentials?
– Versions the mail piece?
• (tuned to DEMO-graphy)
– Controlled Timing of mail drops (rotation)
– Special ultratargets (Boutique mailings)
– Retention and acquisition
– Backend analysis to guide future plans
One year later: A whole new world
• Issues solved: – Management of the rotation grid.
– Planning of the creative/production process.
– Postal expertise.
– Results measurements.
• Benefits: – “Personalized” messages.
– Lift in retention / drop in churn.
– Revenue per unit of circulation increase.
– Better understanding of customer value.
– Selective timings of mailings to Ex- and Never- Subs.
Ready to do it?
• Define a course and stick to it
• Mistakes will be made
• Don’t assume you can do it all
• Don’t assume you can’t do it all (done right, you can out ADVO ADVO)
• Sustainability!
Words of wisdom: Make this a more than a one person project.
Picking what was important?
• Ability to attract and ability to retain – Complex to simple and back to complex (once we learned)
• Extracted data from our circulation system
• PRIZM Clusters (PRIZMne at ZIP+6)
• Combined Clusters into groups with Lifestage/Social Groups
• Subscribers
• Ex-subscribers
• Never Subscribers
Focus On The High Value: _________
Where did we end up?
• Better understanding of how research and
testing work together.
• What to test (for less).
• How to get a statistically valid sample size.
• Better able to test price, lists, copy and timing.
• Key analysis measures.
• Retention rates and anticipated response rates
• Disasters to avoid (not that we had any ;-)).
View from the real world
(Examples of our lessons learned)
Getting to value
Started here
Added our subscriber model…
Quick hits…to full campaigns
Cluster 01
Very high
attraction/retention
index, very high
penetration. But is
the remaining pool
large enough to tap?
Tracking
Tracking starts in the campaign
Actually, it starts before
the campaign. It starts
with the target planning
meetings….
Tracking by Segment
Zoom…
Lifetime Value
Lifetime Value Model
• View 1 – Initial setup
Note: All rate, rate steps and
costs of delivery are illustrative
amounts.
Lifetime Value model
• View 2 – Status of starts through the
critical grace period
Note, at week 12, the starts
taken have already
generated a positive return
Yet, some orders are still
working off the initial costs..
Lifetime Value model
• View 2 – Status of starts through the
critical grace period
Look at the retention at this
point!
Profitability graph for “Crew” starts
Profitability graph for “Direct Mail” starts
Overall Breakeven Point
Payment Patterns
Payment Analysis
Should you even send a third bill?
Bills Sent Bills Paid
Payment Pattern Analysis
First Bills Sent
Second Bills Sent
Final Bills Sent
First Bills Paid
Second Bills Paid
Start of Subscriptions
Final Bills Paid
3rd notice does add value
But does it add enough?
For now… yes a third notice
Lift in “Green”
(payments that we
can not associate
with a bill), and
enough 3rd notices
come in.
Frequency of Delivery
Drift Analysis
Initial Analysis
7-Day production
dropped from 87%
sold to 67%
Initial Analysis
While Sunday and
Weekend orders went
WAY up
Average Rates holding
Decision time
• Options:
– Continue to sell lower FODs
– Stop Selling lower FODs
– Decided to keep offering the lower FODs but
with much lower focus
Result… 7-Day orders back up
And Average Rate still up…
Ultra Targeting
• Past Easy Pay upgrade efforts traditionally
yielded very few conversions.
• On May 17, 2007, we dropped 2,300 direct
mail pieces to ultra targeted segments
within our Loyalty Ladder.
• This was the first time we utilized the
Loyalty Ladder for a targeted retention
campaign.
Ultra Targeting
• Selection criteria:
– Silver step in our ladder(subs for at least 1-2 years)
and Bronze (subs for six months to one year)
– Shining Stars Boomers and NonBoomers R7 bill me,
excluded annuals.
– Selected zip codes:
• North
• NEV
• SEV
• West
Ultra Targeting
• The Offer:
• Used Claritas ConsumerPOINT to provide the store that this group was most likely to shop at: Nordstrom.
• We selected $15 domination gift cards (in the future we will test other increments, including no gift card).
• The rate was promoted as 'like receiving two weeks free, 20% off', i.e. $17.15 rate.
• All approved by ABC.
Ultra Targeting
• Creative:
– Boomer-Centric
creative.
• Results:
– 2.5% response
rate.
Ultra Targeting
• Next up:
– Repeating the boomer piece (1.7% response with 3
weeks remaining in campaign).
• (Note: Confirm your program with ABC).
– Hispanic based on language use and tenure in
market.
– Tenure based campaign into a highly competitive
section of town.
– Working women with children.
– New to market in “highly” competitive areas of town.
Looking for the silver bullet?
I’ve found a few:
Patience
Freedom to explore
Encouragement to explore
The right tools
The right people