root causes of social vulnerability: demographic and economic trends session 6
TRANSCRIPT
Session 6 2
Session Objectives
Understand major demographic trends in the U.S. and globally.
Understand broad migration trends in the U.S. and globally.
Explore poverty in the U.S. and globally.
Appreciate how population trends can contribute to vulnerability and require special consideration for emergency management and disaster response. Later sessions will explore the relationship between these trends and vulnerability in more detail.
Session 6 3
Why disaster losses go up…
Population growth Land pressure Urbanization Inequality Climate change Political change Economic growth
Technological innovation
Social expectations Global
interdependence
Session 6 4
Population & Economic Trends
General trends contributing to vulnerability
– Population trends Population increase Children & Elderly Diversity Migration
– Economic disparity Poverty Access to resources
Session 6 5
Population Growth
Birth Rates: annual # of live births/1000 people Fertility Rates: annual average number of
children a woman has during reproductive years Death Rates = annual mortality rate/1000 Natural increase = Birth Rate – Death Rate
Session 6 6
Implications of Population Growth
Carrying Capacity– Maximum # of individuals of any species that can
be supported by a particular ecosystem on a long-term basis
– Different views: Zero Population Growth: Ehrlich (1970) Bring ‘em on!: Boserup (1965)
Creating stress on resource and land use Living in more marginal environments,
particularly with regard to hazards Changing demographic structure, altering
vulnerabilities
Session 6 7Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.
Population in billions
2
4
6
8
10
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
20006.1 billion
Session 6 11
Migration Implications for Vulnerability
Changing nature of communities– Social and family networks change– Shifting resources
As people move to new places– Often do not have understanding of hazards in
new location Past experiences do not necessarily correspond to
changed geography Limited knowledge about resources & hazards
Session 6 12
Factors Influencing Why People Migrate
Push factors Pull factors Ease of movement Alternative destinations Perception/Information
Session 6 13
Migration Trends
Numbers– About 175 million people, or 3% of world’s
population– 60% reside in developed nations
Refugee populations– 15.9 million people in 2000– Most are in developing nations (12.9 million)
Urbanization In U.S., toward the coast
Session 6 14
Countries with the Largest International Migrant Stock, 2000
Source: United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, International Migration, 2002.
Session 6 15
Urbanizing Population
Share of World Population Growth in Urban & Rural
Areas, 1950-2025
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision (2000).
Percent of Population Living in Urban Areas,
1950, 1975, 2000, & 2025
Session 6 16
Urbanizing Population
Percent Urban
5-2829-4445-6162-7980-100
Source: derived from 2002 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau
Session 6 18
Reasons for Moving in the U.S.,1999-2000 Family (26.3%)
– Change in marital status– To establish own household– Other *
Work (16.2%)– New job/job transfer *– To look for work/lost job– Closer to work/easier commute– Retired
Housing (51.6%)– Wanted to own home/not rent– New/better house/apartment *– Better neighborhood/less crime– Cheaper housing
Other (6.0%)– attend/leave college *– Change of climate– Health reasons
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 1998, March 1999, and March 2000.
Session 6 21
Poverty and Vulnerability
Direct link between poverty and vulnerability Affects access to monetary resources in face
of disaster Impacts ability to mitigate against hazards Must prioritize everyday needs
Session 6 22
Income Disparities
Almost one-quarter of the world's 5.7 billion people ''continues to live in a state of severe poverty.'' United Nations
More than 1.3 billion people currently live below the poverty line, surviving on a dollar a day
41 countries designated as "heavily indebted poor countries" by the World Bank, 39 fall into the category of high-fertility nations, where women, on average, bear four or more children. (August 2002)
Session 6 23
UNDP Poverty Report 2000
Two ways of measuring poverty
The $1 per day is an income measure of poverty: it measures the percentage of people who live on less than $1 per day
The Human Poverty Index (HPI)
Session 6 24
UNDP Poverty Report 2000
The HPI measures deprivation in basic human development. It takes into account:
– % of people expected to die before age 40– % of adults who are illiterate– % of population without access to health
services– % of population without access to safe water– % of children under five who are underweight
Session 6 27
Life Expectancy at Birth: 2000
Under 50 years50 to 64 years65 to 74 years75 years and over
Source: derived from 2002 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau
Session 6 28
Economic Disparity in U.S.
Median Income for HouseholdsAverage Income per Household
By Race & Hispanic OriginOf Householder: 1999
Session 6 30
Percent of U.S. Children in Poverty, 2000
Total
WhiteNon-Hispanic White
BlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (May Be Any Race)
16.2%
13.09.4
30.914.528.0
Total
WhiteNon-Hispanic White
BlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (May Be Any Race)
16.2%
13.09.4
30.914.528.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data from the March 2000 Current Population Study, available at www.census.gov and http://ferret.bls.census.gov.
Session 6 31
U.S. Home Ownership, 2000
72 percent of non-Hispanic whites 53 percent of Asians 46 percent of African Americans and of
Hispanics. Gap narrowed in recent decades, due in part
to an increasing number of mortgage loans to low-income, minority households