Role of Policy-makers in promoting gender equality and

investment in rural areas

Briefing session n°16 : Population Growth and its implications for ACP rural development

By Neil Datta, Secretary, European Parliamentary Forum on Population and Development

IAPGArgentina Belize Bolivia Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Guyana

Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Suriname Trinidad and Tobago United States of America Uruguay Venezuela

EPFArmeniaAustriaAzerbaijanBelgiumBosnia-HerzegovinaDenmarkEuropean ParliamentFinlandFranceGeorgiaGermanyIrelandLithuaniaNetherlands

NorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaScotlandSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited Kingdom

AFPPDAustraliaBangladeshCambodiaChinaFijiIndiaIndonesiaIranJapanKazakhstanKyrgyzstanLaoMalaysiaMaldives

MongoliaNepalNew ZealandPakistanPhilippineSolomon IslandsSouth KoreaSri LankaTajikistanThailandVietnam

Population Growth Overview• In 2008: more than 50% of humanity lives in

cities, ie: 3.3 billion people

• Urban population will grow to 4.9 billion by 2030. Rural population is expected to decrease by some 28 million between 2005 and 2030.

• At the global level, all future population growth will thus be in towns and cities.

• In 1950: world counted 2 “mega-cities” (Tokyo and New York), in 2007 there were 20.

• By 2015, there are expected to be 5 “double-mega-cities” (ie. more than 20 Million inhabitants) – Tokyo, New York, Mexico City, Mumbai, Sao Paolo.

• Most population growth taking place in developing countries and almost exclusively in cities.

• Population growth since 10.000 BC

Population Growth OverviewPolicy challenges of population growth:

• population growth is NOT taking place where new jobs are being created but IS taking place where the MDGs are most off-track

• 99% Population growth in developing countries and 90% in the poorest of these countries.

• increase investment is social (health, educational) infrastructure, ie. in some high population growth countries, the number of school-age children can double every 20 years

Population Growth OverviewPopulation Growth and

Poverty:

• the poorest populations in sub-Saharan Africa all have significantly higher fertility rates than the richest in the same countries.

Population Growth Overview

• Out of 50 LDCs surveyed in 2005, 40 felt that their rate of population growth was “too high” and another 10 as “satisfactory” – none said “too low”.

Population Growth Overview

Policy challenges:

• Neglect for contraception & family planning

• Rights of the most vulnerable girls are not respected

• Developing countries’ concerns for population growth not listened

Contraception & Family Planning

The average woman must use some form of effective contraception for at least 20 years if she wants to limit her family size to two children and for 16 years if she wants four children.

Source: WHO

Contraception & Family Planning

• 215 million women who want to avoid a pregnancy are not using an effective method of contraception

• Meeting the need for family planning and maternal and newborn health would reduce unintended pregnancies by more than two-thirds, from 75 million to 22 million per year.

• Source: Adding it up 2009

Contraception & Family Planning

• Fulfilling the unmet need for modern family planning methods would cost $3.6 billion in addition to the $3.1 billion spent serving current users of modern methods – a total of $6.7 billion annually.

Donor funding for family planning declines, even as progress in maternal health stalls

Percentage change in donor assistance for family planning programmes per woman aged 15 to 49, 1996 to 2006

Vulnerable Girls

“Early adolescence is a critical moment when, for many girls, vulnerability is consolidated, rights are irremediably lost, and health is severely threatened.”

Source: Dr. Judith Bruce, Senior Associate and Policy Analyst, Population Council

Girls’ Extreme Social Isolation in Early Adolescence In some countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of girls 10-14 are living in urban areas are living with only one or no parent -

a median of 5%, and as high as 12% - are living with neither parent and not in school 10-14 year old girls, national level

Country Percent living with one parent

Percent living with neither

parent

Percent not in school and not

living with either parent

Burkina Faso (2003) 15.5 17.0 11.8Ethiopia (2005) 21.4 15.3 7.8Kenya (2003) 30.8 20.0 2.8Malawi (2004) 23.0 31.0 5.0Mozambique (2003) 26.6 25.1 9.0Namibia (2000) 31.8 45.2 3.4Nigeria (2003) 20.6 19.3 5.2Rwanda (2005) 32.6 24.1 5.6South Africa (1998) 33.0 34.2 0.9Tanzania (2004) 25.0 23.7 4.5Uganda (2006) 28.0 29.6 3.1Zambia (2001-02) 22.7 29.5 9.1

Vulnerable Girls

• More than 100 million girls will be married as children in the next decade according to present trends

• Respecting the legal of age of marriage can lead to a delay in the first pregnancy will result in a lower total lifetime fertility rate, therefore lower population growth in some regions.

• Girls Example: Percentages of Ethiopian women married under age 15

• Source: 2005 Ethiopian DHS, tabulations and map by Adam Weiner, Population Council

Vulnerable Girls

Potential Solutions: • upholding their rights to marriages of their choosing at a legal

age

• creating girl-only spaces, which build social support while increasing girls’ access to publicly provided education and health services and entitlements

• building their capacity to negotiate safety in the home, in partnerships, in school, and in the public space

• preparing them for decent work by tailoring economic programs to meet their social support and skill needs

Population & Environment

‘Rapid Population Growth’ was identified as a main priority by 6 countries and as “pertinent to at least one specific consequence of climate change” by 37 out of 40 developing countries in their National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) in response to the Global Environmental Facility.

• Source: “Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda”, Leo Bryant, Louise Carver, Colin Butler & Ababu Anage, WHO 2009

Population and Environment: Africa• Population increase in Africa from 292

million in 1961 to 965 million in 2007.

• Wood production in Africa (for industrial and fuel) stood at 277 million m3 in 1961 – it had reached 672 million m3 in 2007 – over 89% is used as fuel

• Africa and Latin America are losing forest cover faster than any other region, an average annual loss of 4.3 million hectares between 1990-2005

• Food and People: Livestock increased by 2.3 while population increased by 3.3 in Africa since 1961. 1980 was the last year where there were more livestock in Africa than people.

• Change in number of people with insufficient food between 1990 and 2002 (Millions)

Conclusions & Recommendations• EU donors need to reverse trend in declining assistance to

reproductive health and family planning.

• The health and rights of women and girls should be made a higher priority on the political agenda than is currently the case, especially during EU-LAC, JPA, MED and possibly NEST meetings they should be a constant item on the agenda.

• EU & ACP Governments should invest in programmes for the most vulnerable girls

• Listen to and plan according to priorities of developing countries regarding their concerns on population growth

• Adopt human rights approach to population : meeting expressed demand for voluntary family planning and upholding rights of girls and women

Sources and further reading :

• “Return of the population growth factor – its impact on the millennium development goals” Report of hearings by the United Kingdom All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health, January 2007

• “Adding It Up – the costs and benefits of investing in family planning and maternal and newborn health” Guttmacher Institute & UNFPA, 2009

• “Making Critical and Timely Investments in Adolescent Girls’ Health: Why and How”, Judith Bruce, Population Council, 2009

• “Plan B4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization”, Lester Brown, 2009, Earth Policy Institute

• “Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda”, Leo Bryant, Louise Carver, Colin Butler & Ababu Anage, WHO 2009