Robotic, Self-Sustaining Architecture

to Utilize Resources and Enable

Human Expansion throughout the

Solar System

SRR/PTMSS

Golden~ Colorado

June 4-7~ 2012

Phil Metzger & Rob Mueller

Granular Mechanics & Regolith Operations (GMRO) Lab

NASA/Kennedy Space Center

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120008779 2020-06-25T19:50:44+00:00Z

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M icroprpcessor S_Qeeds

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U. ~

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Fi!O } 000

Fig. 1: Progress in Microprocessor Instruction Processing Speeds by Year

•

10 10

OOMED J MAGE ~ .

• # '

.... ,...--- . . . _ _..

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Key Ideas

• Don't launch it; evolve it

• Not a simplistic "self-replicator"

-The biosphere and industry are not self-replicators

• Use "Appropriate Technology" at each step

- It doesn't need to be low mass or high tech

- It needs to be easy to make in space

• The technologies are already being developed

-Simply "spin them in"

• The technologies are advancing exponentially

Generations of Space Industry (Notional) Gen Human/Robotic Artificial

Interaction Intelligence 1 Teleoperated Insect-like

and/or locally-operated by a human outpost

2 Teleoperated Lizard-like

2.5 Teleoperated Lizard-like

3 Teleoperated with Lizard-like experiments in autonomy

Scale of Industry

Imported, small-scale, limited

diversity

Crude fabrication, inefficient, but greater throughput than 1.0

Diversifying processes, especially volatiles and metals

Larger, more complex processing plants

Materials Source of Electronics Manufactured Gases, water, crude Import fully integrated

alloys, ceramics, machines solar cells

(Same) Import electronics boxes

Plastics, rubbers, Fabricate crude components some chemicals plus import electronics boxes

Diversify chemicals, Locally build PC cards, chassis Simple fabrics, and simple components, but eventually polymers. import the chips

4 Closely supervised Mouse-like Large plants for chemicals, Sandwiched and other advanced material processes ·

Large scale production

Building large assets such as lithography machines autonomy with fabrics, metals

some teleoperation

5 Loosely supervised Mouse-like Labs and factories for Make chips locally. Make bots in situ for export to asteroid belt

autonomy

6 Nearly full

autonomy

X.O Autonomous robotics pervasive throughout solar system enabling human presence

electronics and robotics. Shipyards to support main belt

Monkey-like Large-scale, self-supporting Makes all necessary Makes everything locally,

industry, exporting industry to materials, increasing increasing sophistication asteroid main belt sophistication

Human-like Robust exports/imports through Material factories Electronics factories in various zones of solar system specialized ·by zone locations

of the solar system

•Simplistic Modeling •Not intended to be definitive

•Explores some of the key parameters

•Attempt to demonstrate basic feasibility

•Intends to generate interest and further investigation

•Needs a much larger study with a much larger group of contributors

FromGen N -1, Gen. N contains Z

basi sets of 21 ssets, V electronics mfrs, and X robonaul s

_____ i For Gen 1.0, 2=1

Calculate Tot a I Product ior1 Rate

. . . . . . . -. sub tractin out rate neetled to m ake V electronic mfrs. U r·obonaut s, and fr.act ion

F of all the assets' electronics packag-es

fabricate by dividing basic prod r ion rate by ma!.s of one basic se t

Ca leu late X numbe of robo nauts ne-eded for a~sembly of the~e

U+V 21 *W assets (or just

V 21 tw ir' Gen ~ l.S si rl e Robonaut~will be imported)

Calculate mass of

ele troni s in he U+V+21 *W a.s.~els

ele-ctronics mfr asse ts to prod ce F times this ma ss off elec t ronics ( xcept ing rRobona t

eleoe tronics for Gen :$ 2 .5)

I

\

r ate to manufact ure robonau ts since ,J / they wi ll be ir 1ported fro Eart 1

' I \

\.

' \

' ' I

\ I

I

Iterate

Gen

N+l

For closure,

in NI =La~ t se l

U=X*W/Z. V=Y W/Z

Ito e-xecu te next oeycle

\

I

\

I

Gen 1 I) ")

:! 5 3 0 4 .0

~ 0

6.0

F 0.(10

0 Iterate 0 5

G-en 9

N-1 1.00 1.00

Prov ide )( and V to Gen. N­for fabric ation in prio ycle

Additional Production

• Gen 3.0 - 80 MT construction equipment

• Gen 4.0 - Dust Free Laboratory Facilities

• Gen 5.0 - 120 MT materials stockpiled to send industry to

asteroid main belt

• Gen 6.0 - Fleet of 6 spacecraft (20 MT plus 12 MT payload, each

plus propellants) -Takes industry to Main Belt

10000

1000 <U c c 0 ..... 100 -V) V')

ro 2

1J

1

1.0

Mass Launched to Moon

• No Electronics Fa b

* • BJscline StrJtcgy

2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0

Gene ration {space in 2 vear intervals)

\ \

\ 5.0 ..

~ 0

6.0

Power Needs and Availability on Moon

10000

1000

- 100 5 2 - 10 !t...

w ;: 0 1 c.. • Needs

0.1 AvJiiJb c

0 .0 '1

l.J 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0

GenerJtion

Exponential Growth of Lunar Industry 100000

=--------------------+- 10

1

1.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Generation

-0 lo..

w ..c E ::J z

1000

..... (ll IJ) ~

<U a. 100 VI lo..

<U ..... c ·-lo.. 0... -0 lo.. 10 <U .0 E :::l z

1 0.1

Printers vs. Years to Reproduce

1 10 100

Years to Reproduce One Set

---0.01 kg/hr, Std Vlass

· ~0.01 k~/tJr, Low rv'J~s

-&--0.1 kg/t1r, Stc rv1Jss

~0.1 k.g/hr, Low MiSS

--.-1.0 kg/hr, Stc Mass

-&-1 .o kg/h r, Low fv'lc:ss

100000

10000

w c

1000 c 0 ..... V)

10(· V)

ro ~

10

1

0

30000

3000

2.5 300

30 0

2.0

Mass of Assets

40

Year

EO 80

~ • 0.1 kg/hr

....... -0.15 kg/hr

-.A -0.2 k.g/hr

-• 0.25 kg/hr

- .... - 0.333 kg/hr

•• ·•·· 0.4 kg/hr

• 0 . .5 kg/hr

Number of Robonauts Made

I 5.~ ~ • 0.1 kg/hr

__,. -0.15 kg/hr

/. 4.0 -A -0.2. kg/hr

• - • 0.25 kg/hr 3.0 . -+-0.333 kg/hr

~.5 ···•·· 0.4kg/hr

10 20 30 40 50 60 • 0.5 kg/hr

Year

100000

10000

VI w c 1000 c 0 1--VI 100 VI 1"0

2 10

1

Mass of Assets on Moon

D 70% duty cycle

-+-- 60% duty cycle

6 50% duty cycle

--E)-- 40% duty cycle .

D 70% duty cycle

-+- 60% duty cycle

z& 50% duty cycle

-~- 40% duty cycle

Minimizing Launch Mass

c 0 ~ -Ill In cv ~

10000

1000

100

10

1

0.1

0.01

----Baseline Strategy ·· -0·· No Electronics Fab ·· ·!:J·· No Computer Chips Fa b ... • -e- Reduced Ma nuf<1cturing .. ·· ···

0

...... .. .a·

1.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0

-Generation (spaced in 2 y-ear intervals)

100000 ----Mass, Mil X

10000 --6-MilS!i, Red.

-*"- Robon<luts, Mux.

~ - -f:r- Robon iluts, Red. 1000 0

.OJ -"" ~ Cl;l 100 ~ , --6 , -6---~~ , ....

10 , -A---.-tr -- -~-

... -- " :A.# , .. ,;,.,.« 1

1.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Generation

.... 0

6.0

100000

10000 oJ\ ...... :::1 rtl c: 0

1000 .c 0

cr:: -0 100 '-

I:IJ ..c E

lO ~

z

1

The Robosphere

• Like an Ecosphere

• Like a living cell

• Beautifies the solar system

• Allows us to live at the top of a food chain

• Enables us to do great things

- Terraforming, colonies

-Science, arts

-Interstellar travel

..

Cost/Benefit • Cost:

- Develop and launch 12 to 60 tons to Moon and operate it for 20 years

- Launch costs will be negligible using newer capabilities

- Comparing to cost and mass of ISS, this will be less expensive than ISS

• Most mass will be redundant hardware, not unique items

• Benefit

- Move from being a Type-1 to a Type-2 civilization

• Solve world economic problems

• Make our existence safe in the solar system

• Brilliant possibilities for the future

- Move toward a Type-3 civilization

• Extend human presence through the Milky Way