road map for improving the availability, access and use of

Road Map for Improving the Availability, Access and Use of Disaster Risk Information for Early Warning and Early Action

Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards inSub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities

Road Map for Improving the Availability, Access and Use of Disaster Risk Information for Early Warning and Early Action, including in the Context of Transboundary Risk Management

2020

Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards inSub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities

This project is funded by the European Union

Road Map for Improving the Availability, Access and Use of Disaster Risk Information for Early Warning and Early Actionincluding in the Context of Transboundary Risk Management

January 2020

Road Map TeamAuthors:

The Disaster Risk Reduction Unit, African Union CommissionKai Gatkuoth

The Civil Protection and Fire Service, Angola Teresa Epako CandongoEdson FernandoMarquinha GabrielJosé Horácio da Silva

The National Disaster Risk Management Commission, EthiopiaAbraham AbebeTadesse BekeleNegiye Hailu

The Disaster Management Department, Prime Minister’s Office, UR TanzaniaCharles Elikunda MsangiAlly Mwatima

Tanzania Meteorological AuthoritySamwel Mbuya

The Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, Office of the Vice-President, Zambia Lusajio AmbukegeLenganji Sikaona

IGAD - Intergovernmental Authority on DevelopmentAhmed AmdihunKeflemariam Sebhatu

ACMAD - African Centre of Meteorological Application for DevelopmentAndre Kamga FoamouhoueNshimirimana Godefroid

UNDRR - United Nations Office for Disaster Risk ReductionKatarina Mouakkid SoltesovaLuca Rossi

CIMA Research FoundationTatiana GhizzoniAdrien Gignac-EddyIsabel GomesMarco MassabóAlessia MatanòLauro RossiRoberto Rudari

University of FlorenceChiara ArrighiFabio Castelli

Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamHans de MoelMarthe Wens

Scientific-technical support was provided byCIMA Research Foundation and the

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR).

Financial support was providedby the European Union programme

Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards inSub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities.

Institutions Represented at the National and International Consultation and Validation Workshops:

Angola:Comando Provincial do Serviço de Protecção Civil e Bombeiros (Luanda)Delegação da União Europeia em AngolaDirecção Nacional de Saúde Publica (DNSP) – Ministério da Saúde (MINSA)The Food and Nutrition Security and Resilience Strengthening Project/ Projecto para o Fortalecimento da Resiliência e da Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional em Angola (FRESAN) Gabinete de Gestão do Programa Espacial Nacional (GGPEN) Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Angola (INE)Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Geofísica (INAMET)Instituto Marítimo e Portuário de Angola (IMPA) Ministério da Agricultura e Pescas (MINAGRIF, ex-MINAGRI)Ministério da Cultura, Turismo e Ambiente (MINCULT, ex-MINAMB)Ministério da Economia e Planeamento (MEP)Ministério da Educação (MED)Ministério da Hotelaria e Turismo (MHT) Ministério da Indústria e Comércio (MINCO)Serviço de Protecção Civil e Bombeiros (SPCB)United Nations Development Agency (UNDP)United Nations in Action (UNIA)United Nations Volunteers (UNV) Universidade Metodista

Ethiopia:Ministry of AgricultureMinistry of Environment and ForestryMinistry of HealthMinistry of MinesMinistry of National DefenseMinistry of Urban DevelopmentMinistry of Water, Irrigation and EnergyMinistry of Federal AffairsMinistry of TransportMinistry of EducationRegion, zone, woreda, Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa City AdministrationAddis Ababa University Bahir Dar University Disaster Prevention and Food Security Agency National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC)

UR Tanzania:Agricultural Seed Agency Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner’s Office - DarMAERT Directorate of Defense and Foreign RelationsE-Government AgencyFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Ministry of Defence and National Service Ministry of Finance and PlanningMinistry of Agriculture

Ministry of Education, Science and Technology Ministry of Health, Community Development, Gender, Elderly and ChildrenMinistry of WaterMinistry of Works, Transport and Communication Prime Minister’s Office - Disaster Management DepartmentPresident’s Office, Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG)Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology - COSTECH Tanzania Communications Regulatory AuthorityTanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO)Tanzania Forest Service Agency Tanzania Insurance Regulatory Authority (TIRA) Tanzania Meteorological AuthorityNational Bureau of StatisticsTanzania Red Cross SocietyUniversity of Dar Es SalaamVice President’s Office – Environment

Zambia:Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) - Office of the Vice-President Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Ministry of AgricultureMinistry of FinanceMinistry of Fisheries and LivestockMinistry of InformationMinistry of National Development PlanningMinistry of Water DevelopmentMinistry of Health (MOH)Ministry of Transport and Communication- Zambia Meteorological DepartmentNational Remote Sensing CentrePilot Programme for Climate ResilienceRoad Development AgencyRural Women Assembly United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)Water Resource Management AuthorityZambia Agriculture Research InstituteZambia Statistics AgencyZESCO Limited

Multinational Workshops:African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD)African Union Commission (AUC)Centro Internazionale in Monitoraggio Ambientale (CIMA)COMPREC - Conselho Nacional de Preparação e Resposta a Catástrofes, São Tomé e PríncipeDepartment of Disaster Management Affairs of Malawi (DODMA)Directorate of Disaster Risk Management, Office of the Prime Minister of Namibia Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU)Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, Office of the Vice-President of Zambia (DMMU)Disaster Management Department, PMO of Tanzania (DMD-PMO)East African Community (EAC) Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)DG ECHO - DG for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid OperationsEuropean Union Delegation to Ethiopia

European Union Delegation to the African Union Commission Federal Disaster Risk Management Commission (FDRMC)IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC)Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Geofísica de Angola (INAMET)Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hídricos (INRH) do Ministério da Energia e Águas de Angola (MINEA)Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)International Organization for Migration (IOM) Italian Embassy in Kenya Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Ministry of Environment of Equatorial GuineaMinistério do Interior de Angola (MININT) Ministério do Interior da República da Guiné-BissauMinistry of Transport and Communication- Zambia Meteorological DepartmentMinistry of Water of Tanzania National Disaster Management Agency of Kingdom of Eswatini (NDMA)National Disaster Management Office of BotswanaNational Disaster Management Organization of Ghana (NADMO)National Disaster Operations Center of Kenya (NDOC)National Disaster Risk Management Commission of Ethiopia (NDRMC)Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (INGC), Moçambique SODEXAM - National Meteorology service of Côte D’IvoireTanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA)The Directorate of Civil Protection of Cameroon The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) The Ministry of foreign affairs of EthiopiaUnited Nations Human Settlement Programme for human settlements and sustainable urban development (UNHabitat)United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)United Nations World Food Programme (WFP)Water Resources Management Authority of Zambia World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Table of Contents

Executive summary .................................................................................................................................................................................4Background .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Methodology .................................................................................................................................................................................................6

1. Angola .............................................................................................................................................................................................................9

1.1Summary of Early Warning System (EWS) Baseline Analysis .......................................................................91.2 Road map ...........................................................................................................................................................................................10

2. Ethiopia ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17

2.1 Summary of Early Warning System (EWS) Baseline Analysis ................................................................... 172.2 Road map .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 19

3. UR Tanzania ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 26

3.1 Summary of Early Warning System (EWS) Baseline Analysis .................................................................. 263.2 Road map .........................................................................................................................................................................................28

4. Zambia ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35

4.1 Summary of Early Warning System (EWS) Baseline Analysis ................................................................. 354.2 Road map ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 36

5. The Continental and Sub-Continental Levels ............................................................................................................42

5.1 Overview of Functions and capacities ........................................................................................................................425.2 Towards a Supranational Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) ....................................435.3 Road map .........................................................................................................................................................................................475.4 The Open-source technological platform myDEWETRAin support of the implementation of the road map .............................................................................................. 52

6. Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................54

6.1 Common Gaps of Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania, and Zambia .............................................................546.2 Common Priorities of Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania, and Zambia .................................................. 556.3 The Potential of a Supranational Mechanism ..................................................................................................... 56

References .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57

List of Figures

Figure 1. The four components of people-centred EWS ............................................................................................7Figure 2. General evaluation criteria for the survey .........................................................................................................8Figure 3. The implementation concept ................................................................................................................................45Figure 4. Proposed information flow at the Continental level ............................................................................ 52

4

Executive summary

This road map identifies activities and practical recommendations aiming to improve the availability, accessibility and use of risk information at the continental, regional, national and local scales, for the African Union Commission (AUC), the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and four countries - Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania, Zambia - as well as key African stakeholders in the field of DRR. The road map focuses on impact-based Early Warning Systems, and in this context looks to enhance the capacity for data exchange and coordination among national, regional and continental actors. The road map contains a baseline analysis on the status of Early Warning Systems and use of disaster risk information in the target countries, as well as at the continental and sub-continental (regional) levels. The analysis highlights strengths and challenges in four components of Early Warning Systems: Disaster Risk Knowledge, Monitoring and Forecasting, Communication and Dissemination, and Preparedness and Response.

The consolidated baseline analysis was compiled in three phases. First, a desktop review was compiled for each country to support both a draft of the baseline and the organization of country missions where key stakeholders were interviewed using a common survey. After the country missions, a first version of the baseline was compiled and presented for discussion in a multi-country workshop. The revised baseline was consolidated with the help of national DRR focal points and used to develop the recommendations and the road map. Final recommendations were consolidated through a round of national workshops attended by key stakeholders. The present final road map document was presented and endorsed at a multi-country workshop in January 2020, attended by the directors of the respective national DRR authorities, the RECs and AUC.

The final part of each country analysis in the road map, as well as for the supranational level, includes a list of recommendations for each of the four Early Warning System components and traces an optimal process for the country. This is done for each of the countries, as well as for the continental and sub-continental level, and includes common policies for transboundary risk management. The road map builds on the results of a pilot demonstration on the use of the open source platform MyDewetra for exchanging data and information among different national stakeholders, as well as regional and continental institutions. Therefore, recommendations also include a section on the adoption of an integrated IT system for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning in general.

Common recommendations for the four analysed countries are highlighted in the conclusion. Finally, the potential advantages of an EWS at the supranational level in Africa is discussed again in summary.

Road Map for Improving the Availability, Access and Use of Disaster Risk Information for Early Warningand Early Action including in the Context of Transboundary Risk Management

5

Background In 2018, as part of the “Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities” programme, the national DRR authorities of sixteen African countries, in partnership with UNDRR and CIMA Research Foundation, developed probabilistic disaster risk profiles for floods and droughts at the national level. These sixteen countries included: Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Eswatini (Kingdom of), Côte d’Ivoire, Namibia, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, United Republic Tanzania and Zambia. The probabilistic risk profiles provide a comprehensive view of hazard, risk and uncertainties for floods and droughts in both the present climate and a projected climate change scenario, as well as in the current socio-economic context and a potential future one. The risk profiles therefore include an estimation, in the current and the 50-year projected climate and socio-economic development, of the monetary losses for different sectors identified by the Sendai targets, namely: housing, health and education, agriculture, productive assets, critical infrastructure, housing, services and transports. Risk profiles, combined with data on historical disaster losses and from risk-sensitive budget reviews of DRR investments, provide a solid base of risk information relevant for the development of actionable strategic documents such as DRR strategies, climate change adaptation plans or development plans.

The risk profiles were presented in a series of national workshops, one week per country, with the aim of sharing the risk profiling methodology, the results of the analysis and the usability of the generated risk profiles as inputs for national Disaster Risk Reduction strategies. Together with the risk profiles, the workshops contributed to providing a more complete picture of the likelihood and estimated impacts of floods and droughts, by improving the understanding of disaster risk and associated sectoral impacts. Furthermore, they enhanced internal coordination efforts to prevent, mitigate and respond to disasters by promoting an integration of scientific risk information into decision making processes.

Based on the experience gathered in the first phase of the programme and taking into consideration the feedback received from the partner countries, in 2019 UNDRR initiated a second phase of the project that was structured so as to enhance the national ownership and uptake of the probabilistic risk profiles, by systematically integrating local data and knowledge and engaging with the key stakeholders all along the process of profiles revision and critically discussing with them results’ advantages, limitations and fields of application. The focus was on their utilization in different DRR domains, including for the development of holistic, inclusive, and actionable strategies for disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, sustainable development, the support to the development of impact-based early Warning Systems for weather-driven events and for improved transboundary risk management.

As a result, the main objectives of the second phase were to:

- improve the availability and the quality of disaster risk information through the consolidation of the results of the probabilistic risk profiles and their integration with local data, in partnership with the local institutions engaged during the workshop.


6

- strengthen access to risk information by further engaging national governments and key stakeholders in the revision of national risk profiles and their mainstreaming of findings in national policies and strategies; enhancing coordination by empowering the national DRR Platforms.

- develop a strategic, inclusive and coherent road map to build resilient societies by further improving availability, accessibility and the use of risk information at continental, regional, national and local scales involving AUC, the RECs and the countries, as well as key African actors in the field of DRR.

This document outlines the summary findings of this last component: the road map for further improving the availability, accessibility and use of risk information, focusing on Early Warning Early Actions Systems. First, a brief explanation of the methodology used to develop the road map is given. Second, the results of the baseline assessments are summarised to highlight the strengths and the weaknesses of the national Early Warning and Early Action Systems. Finally, the heart of the report is the road map outlined for each national level (Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania, and Zambia), as well as for the continental (AUC) and sub-continental (REC) level.

Methodology

Early Warning Systems (EWS) play a prominent role in disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation, as recognized by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (Target G). An effective EWS not only encompasses the data and technological apparatus, but also the use of disaster risk information, relevant policies and legal frameworks, contingency planning and the involvement of populations in communication and education.

The definition of a road map to drive EWS towards a better alignment with international standards requires a preliminary evaluation of the existing systems. The evaluation method used by the CIMA Research Foundation was anchored in the four components of EWS defined by Sendai Framework and inspired by the World Meteorological Organization checklist for multi-hazard early warning1 and the “Guiding Principle for community early warning by the International Federation of Red Cross2. The method consists of a survey composed of 80 questions which encompassed the four components of people-centred EWS, namely: Disaster Risk Knowledge, Monitoring and Forecasting, Warning Dissemination and Communication and Preparedness and Response(20 questions per element).3 The survey was intended to be partly filled through a desk review using available documents and to be subsequently completed through a consultation with national representatives.

1 WMO, 2018.2 IFRC, 2012.3 See figure 1


7

Figure 1. The four components of people-centred EWS (Source: WMO, 2018)

Section A of the survey evaluated the state of disaster risk knowledge in terms of the: (1) identification of key hazards and related threats; (2) identification of exposure, vulnerability, capacities and risks; (3) identification of roles and responsibilities of stakeholders; (4) consolidation of risk information and (5) incorporation of risk information into EWS. Essentially, this section investigated whether a systematic collection, analysis and revision of data regarding hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure was in place and whether the capacity to cope was evaluated.

Section B of the survey appraised the monitoring and forecasting capabilities in terms of the: (1) availability of monitoring systems; (2) forecasting and warning services; (3) institutional mechanisms. This section examined the availability of warning services with a sound scientific basis, reliable technology, qualified personnel and continued operability.

Section C of the survey assessed the warning dissemination and communication in terms of its: (1) roles, functions, organization and decision making processes; (2) communication systems and equipment and (3) impact-based EW4. This section analysed the existence of operating procedures to coordinate different levels (e.g. national to local), verify, maintain and ensure the redundancy of equipment and trigger appropriate reactions to the warnings.

Section D evaluated preparedness and response capabilities in terms of (1) existence and effectiveness of disaster response plans and (2) public awareness and education campaigns. This section investigated how the warnings reach last-mile operators and citizens and if awareness campaigns target different sectors of civil society.

A score from 0 to 3 was assigned by the assessor to each response, according to the information collected through the survey. The following scoring was applied:

4 WMO, 2015.


8

• A score of 0 indicated that in the current state, the element under consideration was insufficiently developed.

• A score of 1 indicated insufficiency but with partial attempts made.

• The score of 2 represented the reference level set in the survey.

• A score of 3 was given when a criterion surpassed the reference level (see Figure 2).

The specific elements of value within each evaluation criterion were indicated to help guide the assessor, and was tailored to each question. These assessments went through multiple verification processes. A first draft analysis was presented and verified by all of the stakeholders during a first multi-country workshop in November 2019, and adjustments were made. Then, simplified self-assessment surveys were given to national stakeholders to conduct self-assessments, following the evaluation criteria noted above. These self-assessments were used to cross-check the main assessments for major inconsistencies. The inconsistencies were then further evaluated and researched by the assessors, who made adjustments to the score if necessary. The final assessments were presented in a national workshop, along with a draft version of the recommendations derived from them. Once again, modifications were made based on the feedback received. Lastly, a finalised version with conclusive recommendations was presented in a final workshop and endorsed by the DRR focal points and the directors of the national DRR authorities of each of the concerned countries.

For each of the four countries, the sum of the scores in each section was used to identify opportunities to improve the current EWS situation. Radar charts were used to graphically represent EWS standards, excellence and the position of the country score for each EWS component and its sub-components. In this respect, the aim of the proposed road map was to fill the identified gaps and to reach at least a baseline score for each EWS component.

The road maps were therefore developed with the baseline analyses in mind, identifying specific descriptions of recommendations and priorities to improve on within each of the four components. Actions were then identified, based on these priorities. For the continental and sub-continental level, the baseline analysis was not used. Instead, the road map outlines what could be done based on an analysis of the current institutional framework and capacities of the African Union Commission (AUC) and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs).

GRADING SCALE SCORE DESCRIPTION

The principle is not met: there is no evidence of required elements nor there are ongoing initiatives. 0

The current state of the system does not comply with international standards and good practices. Ongoing initiatives to strenghten it do not exist or will not suffice to make it compliant.

The principle is partially achieved: some efforts to achieve the criteria are observed but additional initatives need to be implemented.

1The current state of the system does not comply with international standards and good practices. Ongoing initiatives could suffice to make It compliant.

The principle is achieved: there is consistent evidence that the standard have been successfully reached. 2 The current state of the system complies with standard,

recommendations and reference good practices.

The principle is exceeded. There is evidence that a variety of methods is used to go beyond the minimum expectations and ensure an exceptionally high level of quality.

3 The current state of the system exceeds international standard, recommendations and reference good practices.

Figure 2. General evaluation criteria for the survey


9

1. Angola

1.1 Summary of Early Warning System (EWS) Baseline Analysis

1.1.1 Country Overview

Angola’s disaster management is operated at the national, provincial, municipal and community level through a structured organization. At the institutional level, the Civil Protection Commission guarantees the involvement of all key stakeholders with a multisectoral approach. Information on historical damages and losses is recorded and consolidated in line with the standards set by the Sendai Framework. The Serviço Nacional de Proteção Civil e Bombeiros (SNPCB) is mainly activated during or after an event. No alert protocols are in place during the preparation phase (before the event). The response mechanism appears well organized at the different levels—national, provincial, municipal-yet this response is based on past experience rather than institutionalized protocols. Both weather and hydrological forecasting and monitoring capabilities are limited due to the lack of tools and resources. Hydrological monitoring systems, for example, serve predominantly water management purposes and are not used in real-time. Although many institutions seem willing to share data and information, no stable data exchange protocols are in place between monitoring institutions (mainly INAMET, INRH, Ministry of Agriculture). Real-time and off-line data sharing would increase the monitoring potential in the country. There is no common shared database and data accessibility is generally limited.

Angola currently does not have a fully operational Early Warning System in place at the national scale—the Civil Protection system is only activated during and after an event. Therefore, the overall score of the country does not reach the reference level in all four of the EWS components. However,, existing structures in the Communication and Dissemination and Preparedness and Response components are an asset of the system and offer a starting point for the development of a full EWS.

Overall, Angolan institutions, international agencies and donors have noted that more emphasis must be placed at the national level on anticipation and preparedness, rather than recovery, in order to strengthen the inherent ability of organized communities to respond and adapt to disturbances. Messages from an Early Warning System, based on scientific information, would reach those who are mostly likely to be affected, with sufficient time to allow them to act by following pre-organized plans. That being said, the implementation of an EWS will require a strong paradigm shift from reaction to early action within the existing Civil Protection structure and across the activities of the relevant bodies. Parts of the current structure (e.g.: communications) could be adapted to serve such an EWS.

1.1.2 Disaster Risk Knowledge

Angola’s assignment of roles and responsibilities for disaster risk knowledge production, consolidation and dissemination is well identified, offering a good starting point for the country


ANGOLA

10

in this component. Both the Civil Protection and INAMET collect and use historical data to build a database and to identify disaster impacts and weather anomalies. A national disaster loss database is being implemented. In terms of the knowledge itself however, no detailed hazard maps for floods and droughts are available. Disaster risk is qualitatively assessed, based on past experiences, but is present at all scales. At the local level, community leaders assess the degree of vulnerability based on personal experience. Safe areas are identified at a few sites (in Luanda), based on the local knowledge of Civil Protection officers. The integration of such experience based knowledge is also not done according to a structured procedure.

1.1.3 Monitoring and forecasting

Monitoring and forecasting in Angola is done by the INAMET (weather) and INRH (water resources). The monitoring of hydro-meteorological data, however, has a weak spatial coverage, with only a handful of active automatic stations. Some initiatives are ongoing to expand the national weather and hydrometric network and to meet the minimum density recommended by the WMO. The existing capacities to process real-time data are insufficient to guarantee an operational use of an EWS. Institutional mechanisms to manage real-time monitoring, forecasting and early warning are also not yet in place. Gabinete de Segurança Alimentar (under the Ministry of Agriculture) issues a bulletin every three months with a special focus on food security.

1.1.4 Communication and dissemination

Angola’s communication systems are well organized: procedures and infrastructure are in place which are adequate to communicate, update situational analysis and coordinate civil protection at local and national levels when an event has occurred or is ongoing. INAMET uses various transmission media (radio, phone, newspapers) to disseminate forecasting information to the population. However, this dissemination is not part of a comprehensive civil protection communication strategy. Warning messages are not linked to a contingency plan and they are only generated after an event has occurred. Moreover, there are no mechanisms in place to check whether information reaches the targeted population.

1.1.5 Preparedness and response

Angola conducts public awareness campaigns to inform the population on how to react in the case of emergencies, which contributes to its preparedness. However, specific preparedness plans currently only exist for sparse pilot sites. Actions in these places are based on a situation analysis performed during a disaster event and lessons learned are incorporated into existing plans.

1.2 Road map

The analysis of the existing system in Angola highlights that the country currently has a good organization, both in terms of roles (Civil Protection and Fire Brigades) and communication procedures (equipment and agreements with media) to respond to natural hazards,


ANGOLA

11

although the response phase starts only during or immediately after the event. Under this lens, it would be advisable to develop Early Warning Systems in order to anticipate the response of the institutions and achieve a more effective reduction of negative impacts.

1.2.1 Recommendations

The well-established disaster management institutional framework represents a solid basis for the implementation of the EWS. The inter-ministerial National Commission of Civil Protection (Comissão Nacional de Protecçāo Civil - CNPC) plays a key role in the coordination of all disaster risk management aspects and should facilitate the coordination during the implementation of multi-sectoral aspects of the EWS. Several aspects must be considered and improved, in order to implement an effective and tailored Early Warning System at the national level:

i) risk knowledge must be strengthened, based on quantitative data and consolidated to support preparedness and warning activities;

ii) the existing monitoring network needs to be further implemented and improved, and will benefit from the several ongoing initiatives to install new automated and traditional stations for monitoring-forecasting, although those might not yet be enough to cover fully the territory;

iii) no systematic warnings are conveyed to the population and actions are put in place mainly in the occurrence of an adverse event;

iv) in the absence of systematic mapping and monitoring, emergency and preparedness plans need to be developed.

Archives of historical data related to flood and drought impacts being reorganized to be suitable for incorporation into risk maps; national plans5 have established policies mandating risk assessment, but they have not yet been fully implemented. In order to consolidate risk information to support preparedness plans, a complete flood/drought hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping for the whole territory should be developed. This action should ideally be coordinated by the SNPCB, in strong cooperation with other key institutions such as INAMET, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy and Water (in particular the National Institute for Water Resources, INRH), Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education, and Academia. According to the analysis and the outcomes of stakeholder consultations, the priority of the implementation of the EWS at the national level is to strengthen the monitoring and forecasting system. This includes:

• setting-up an adequate monitoring and forecasting service, including increasing automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge),

• the training of personnel,• creating 24-hour operational warning centres,

• creating fail-safe systems and standardized procedures for issuing warnings.

5 Presidential Decree n. 30/16 approving the Strategic Plan for the prevention and reduction of disaster risk within the framework of the national development plan 2013-2017.


ANGOLA

12

In this process, INAMET is a key player together with SNPCB and INRH. Under the coordination role of SNPCB, dissemination and communication of warnings could also be improved in order to reach the population with impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. The current communication system used in the response phase can be adapted to the warning phase. This objective should be achieved with the support of the Provincial Commissions of Civil Protection, INAMET, Ministry of Agriculture (in particular the Gabinete de Segurança Alimentar), Ministry of Energy and Water (in particular the National Institute for Water Resources-INRH), Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education, Ministry of Social Communication.

The same national institutions, and including the Municipal Commissions of Civil Protection should actively engage to design a framework for pre-event activation of emergency plans.

1.2.2 PrioritiesThe present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering Angola’s national context. The priorities listed below are not in order of importance


ANGOLA

13

Priority Priority Description Proposed Actions

1) Strengthen institutional and legal framework on EWS (this will improve all 4 components)

An effective Early Warning and Action system needs to be based on a solid institutional framework with a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities among institutions and organizations at different administrative levels. Angola’s national and provincial civil protection commissions have a strong coordination mandate, which should be further operationalized with specific regulations. Operational procedures should be developed for the preparation of multi-hazard warnings, dissemination, and related actions at all administrative levels.

Support the institutionalization of the National Early Warning System within the existing legal framework, including common policy on data exchange.

2) Strengthen risk knowledge

Risk awareness among organizations and individuals are the foundation of any Early Warning System and require a sound knowledge of risk. Risk awareness and knowledge requires a multi-level approach, encompassing national organizations, civil societies and the general public. In Angola, the existing risk information is not yet systematically organized, which limits the accessibility and data sharing among stakeholders (institutions, practitioners and the general public). The improvement of disaster loss databases, to include economic losses disaggregated by sectors and provinces, would be key in guaranteeing accessibility and strengthening risk knowledge at the national level.

Organization of existing risk knowledge and information into a single national database. A centralized database would serve multiple stakeholders in order to inform decisions and actions along the entire disaster risk management cycle. It should aim to improve accessibility to risk information for both organizations and practitioners.

Mainstreaming and integrating existing risk knowledge at the national and sub-national levels among organizations and individuals.

Development of further risk knowledge through risk assessment and mapping. The risk profile for floods and droughts should be downscaled to the local level and extended to other significant risks in the country, such as epidemics. There is a need to develop risk scenarios at local and national scales in order to properly inform emergency planning actions.


ANGOLA

14

3) Improve monitoring and forecasting system

INAMET provides services in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is a good cooperation with the Regional Climate Services and new reinforcing initiatives are being implemented with the support of bilateral (e.g. Meteo France International) and multilateral cooperation projects (e.g. FRESAN). The INRH has the responsibility for water resource management, however the capacity for real-time monitoring and forecasting the hydrological conditions still needs to be strengthened.

Strengthening of the real-time monitoring system for both meteorological and hydrological conditions: to be achieved through the installation of new stations and the automation of existing ones. Real-time transmission of data is key for flood monitoring. Traditional stations can be complemented with Open Hardware. INAMET capacities and human resources should be guaranteed to ensure maintenance of the meteo-hydrological network at the national level.

Development of operational hydrological modelling. Hydrological modelling needs to be developed for all main rivers in Angola and can serve multiple purposes including flood and drought forecasting and water management. A flash-flood forecasting system is also required, especially in densely populated urban areas (e.g. Luanda). Integration of existing global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations. Global and regional datasets are of crucial importance due to the lack of in situ data, as in the case of Angola, and they should be considered a starting point in the improvement of the national monitoring and forecasting systems. Integration of remote sensing dataset. Earth observation can partially remedy the lack of in situ data. Satellite technology offers different accessible information and tools that can be used in meteorological, hydrological, drought monitoring and forecasting. Development of capacities for impact-based forecasting. An impact-based forecasting and warning approach translates meteorological and hydrological hazards into sector and location-specific impacts, considering exposure and possibly vulnerabilities. This would facilitate the identification of mitigation actions for reducing those impacts. Impact-based forecasts should be a joint work of SNPCB, INAMET, INRH and the Ministry of Agriculture. National drought monitoring system that integrates and specializes the input of Regional Climate Centres. National drought monitoring would provide detailed data. The national drought monitoring system can initially rely on satellite and global/regional dataset and can be later enriched by the integration of newly available sensors over time.


ANGOLA

15

4) Further Develop Communication and dissemination

Dissemination and Communication of warnings are critical before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between the system monitoring phase and its response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach populations at risk, are understood by them, and that can therefore enable them to act to reduce the impact of a disaster.

Standardized procedures to also use the current response communication infrastructure for early warning purposes (i.e. to convey warning messages from national to local levels). The existing multiple channel approach should be emphasized and re-adapted to preparedness needs. Depending on the local conditions, warnings can be disseminated through multiple and parallel channels from sms to email, social networks and low-cost broadcasting technology (radio, flags, boards, whistles and megaphones) and can be tailored to different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or the general public.

Development of a uniform and integrated communication system for alerting the population (i.e. colour code warning). The communication system should include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios and should clearly identify “who communicates what”. Extreme attention must be given to developing a communication system able to translate complex technical and scientific information into a common language that can be understood by the population. Indigenous knowledge, civil society in general and national and local organizations (schools, youth associations, etc.), can effectively contribute to improve and disseminate risk communication.

5) Improve Preparedness and capacity response

Communities need to be ready to respond in case the risk becomes a reality. The response action should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself in order to reduce its impacts. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions.

Community-based emergency planning linked to the national warning. SNPCB should be responsible for providing guidelines for the implementation of emergency plans at the local level. Emergency plans should be designed considering specific local hazard, exposure and vulnerability, ideally through a participatory approach.

Practice and exercise (e.g. multiscale field/tabletop exercises). Regular exercises should be planned to test the response capacity of the institutions and population.

Public awareness campaigns should be carried out to inform the population about potential impacts, behaviours to be adopted and actions to be taken in case of warnings.


ANGOLA

16

6) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple scales for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system in general

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-gis platform, with an accessible database would enable different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) to access information in real-time.

Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving the data exchange, fostering systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions.

Under this lens, each institution at the regional, national or provincial levels should ideally have access to the same shared open source web-GIS platform, according to their role and responsibilities within the institutional framework. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share updated information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data and information used in the risk profile (such as exposure, vulnerability, hazard maps, etc.) may also be used in real-time to assess the impact of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the REC’s could also share relevant data about monitoring and outlook through this same platform. The pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a open source web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, provincial level).

Design and implementation of regulations to ensure data accessibility and sharing. Standard Operational Protocols should be implemented among all contributing organizations, in order to ensure that data is effectively channelled among institutions.

Integration of risk information and data into a shared platform. Risk information should be incorporated into the shared platform and readily available to be used for the construction of real-time impact scenarios. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers should be maintained and updated by different responsible institutions.

Integration of past event records into the platform. Centralized loss database (e.g. Desinventar) should be connected to the platform.

Integration of all analysis tools for monitoring and forecasting, including global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations, forecasting models and remote sensing dataset.

Warning messages (bulletins) preparation. Specific technological tools, integrated into the platform, should facilitate the preparation and dissemination of warning messages.

Response plan preparation and systematization. A specific module should be dedicated to the activation of the emergency plan and the verification of all predefined actions.


ANGOLA

17

2. Ethiopia



Existing institutional arrangements for Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia are the result of a long institutional evolution. The policies and structures around DRM in Ethiopia have continually adapted to the new challenges and have kept pace with the international protocols and frameworks (HFA and Sendai).

The Government of Ethiopia has endorsed a comprehensive DRM policy, based on lessons learned from previous experiences. These include the necessity of a multi-hazard approach grounded in a deep understanding of specific disaster risk, and its link to development and vulnerability; emphasis on prevention, mitigation, preparedness and post-disaster modalities and capacities; de-centralization of resources and structures; a clear determination of DRM responsibilities, supported by the capacity for legal enforcement and a high degree of accountability.

In order to effectively implement this change, the National Disaster Risk Management Policy and Strategy was adopted in 2013 by amending the previous National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management, which had been under implementation since 1993, resulting in a substantial shift from crisis management to risk management. The current National policy and strategy on DRM provides a framework for “reducing disaster risks and potential consequences of disasters by providing appropriate and timely responses to disasters before, during, and after the disaster period at all levels through establishing a coordinated, accountable, and decentralized system”. Ethiopia’s Program of Action To better align its National Disaster Risk Management Policy and Strategy with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the Africa Program of Action for implementation of Sendai Framework in Africa is a further important step towards the strengthening of preparedness.

In 2016, the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) was created to guide and coordinate all the processes required to implement the DRM system in the country. At the federal level the structures are well in place and with qualified and experienced staff. Increasing attention and resources are being allocated to establishing dedicated structures, systems and financing to address risk reduction at the sub-national level.

Disaster Risk Knowledge and Preparedness and Response are Ethiopia’s two strongest components. Notable highlights include the assessment of flood and drought hazards, and the established contingency plans. Ethiopia also has a solid institutional and legislative baseline structure in the Disaster Risk Knowledge and Communication and Dissemination components.

2.1.2 Disaster Risk knowledge

Disaster risk knowledge is a strong point of Ethiopia’s EWS. The Woreda Disaster Risk Profiles (WDRP) is a flagship programme of the Government of Ethiopia; the programme is definitely, a good practice at the international level. WDRPs constitute the foundation of the DRM system


ETHIOPIA

18

in Ethiopia as they provide key information on the hazard, exposure, vulnerabilities and coping capacities for the Woreda. The Woreda disaster risk profiling is a process of collection, analysis, documentation and sharing of Woreda based information on hazards of different nature and associated vulnerabilities. About 50% of Woredas (454) have a Risk Profile, 347 profiles are available on the web and 341 Woreda DRR Plans have been finalized.

Roles and responsibilities are clearly identified for Disaster Risk Knowledge, providing a solid structure, and flood and drought hazards are assessed. Yet, some specific areas prevent the country from achieving the reference level in this component: historical data is not fully integrated to improve assessments, exposure and vulnerability are only partly quantified, and risk information is not systematically integrated into emergency plans. Finally, cascading events are only qualitatively evaluated for droughts and floods.


Ethiopia has a developed hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting system in place, but the number of ground automatic hydro-meteorological stations is limited and hydrological forecasting is not operational. Compared to other services in the region, the National Meteorological Agency provides good services, however capacity in both real-time monitoring, exchange of information and forecasting could be improved. Hydrological forecasts are not fully operational. Bulletins are systematically produced for meteorological hazard but not daily and do not include possible impacts. Hydro-meterological and geological forecasting remains the sector that would need more support for development.


The roles and responsibilities of all relevant actors of the warning and communication system are well established and legislated by the National Policy, which is important for the efficiency of the system. The functioning of the system down to the woreda level is excellent and relevant procedures to be followed exist; however, standard operating procedures to ensure the coordination among operators especially at local level should be developed. Emergency Operation Centre is in place at the National Disaster Risk Management Commission, however the dissemination to the entire population is still a challenge and messages are not fully understandable to non-technical end-users. On this point, it should be noted that the speed of communication could be improved. There are no automated communication systems in place-warnings are instead sent via email to specialized personnel, which becomes a challenge for events with a short timeframe. As for the information conveyed in the warnings, drought warnings are impact-based and highly detailed, but flood warnings do not indicate impact.


Ethiopia has contingency plans which set the basis for the preparedness of the country to face disasters. Nevertheless, preparedness plans for the country as a whole do not exist and are not developed systematically. Where preparedness plans do exist, they appear to have only limited or no risk information used as a basis for preparedness actions or for emergency


ETHIOPIA

19

plan preparation (e.g. for identifying shelters and evacuation points). Disaster risk reduction is included in school curricula and in university courses which also contributes to the country’s preparedness. In terms of response, projects in pilot sites have developed warnings that are linked, in terms of their severity, to specific response actions. Some pilot sites also conduct field exercises to improve the community’s ability to respond to actions. However, these initiatives have not been mainstreamed to the whole country. Moreover, DRM is not mainstreamed in the education sector at full scale, program in some elementary, secondary and tertiary school exists but the process need to be systematized. Warnings themselves are not always understood by the population or are not disseminated widely enough (with the exception of warnings sent through radio and television), both of which limit the ability of many stakeholders to react.

2.2 Road map

The analysis of the existing system in Ethiopia highlights that the country has developed a clear identification of roles and responsibilities of different institutions and has established policies mandating risk assessment. There is a general understanding of hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities at the country level. Archives of historical data related to floods and droughts, as well as for other hazards, are currently in the process of being incorporated into risk maps.


Ethiopia has a solid basis from the organizational and institutional point of view. There have been significant developments of DRR policies in the last few decades and an evolution of institutional mandates towards an integrated DRM strategy. Nevertheless, all of the four components of the EWS require some improvement in order to reach the desired reference level.

DRR stakeholders would greatly benefit if flood/drought hazard and risk mapping was completed for the whole territory and down to the local level in order to identify threats, potential consequences and cascading effects of hazard events. Risk information should be consolidated to support preparedness plans, currently only available in some pilot sites. The institution currently responsible for this task, the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) can provide scientific and technical support to the risk assessment process and should mobilise further active involvement of other key stakeholders , including the Regional Disaster Risk Management Commissions, Woreda and Zonal Commission, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, National Meteorological Agency, and academia.

To build on the many advances, the government should aim to improve the monitoring and forecasting service, including through an increase of automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge) and the advancement in the technological and scientific tools in support of the monitoring and forecasting system.

Ethiopia should also aim to improve its operational capacity with a 365/24/7 service implementing fail-safe systems and standardized operational procedures for issuing warnings.


ETHIOPIA

20

This responsibility should fall once again on the NDRMC, in collaboration with the National Meteorological Agency and the ministry of Water Irrigation and Electricity.

Under the coordination role of NDRMC, dissemination and communication of warnings should be improved in order to reach the population with timely, impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. Improvements are particularly needed in the means used for communication and in the connection between messages, the expected scenario and the related action.

Moreover, although DRR is included in school and university curricula and awareness campaigns are conducted in pilot sites, preparedness plans are not systematically and at full scale in place, and only contingency plans exist. NDRMC should coordinate the development of preparedness plans, SoPs and education campaigns especially for fast-developing hazards in collaboration with the other institutions involved (the Federal Disaster Risk Management Commissions, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, National Meteorological Agency, Basin Development Authority, Woreda and Zonal Commission, Ministry of Agriculture).

2.2.2 PrioritiesThe present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering Ethiopia’s national context and in consultation with the national stakeholders. The priorities listed below are not in order of importance.


ETHIOPIA

21


1) Consolidate disaster risk knowledge

Disaster risk knowledge is of concern to multitudes of national organizations, civil societies and the general public. Except for NDRMC, which is the lead body mandated to work on DRM, and its parallel organizations at lower administrative levels, locally sourced data and information about disaster risk is sparse and not broadly available. Hence, entities that can potentially make use of risk data and risk information, including decision-makers and practitioners, do not have such data and information available to them. Given that systematically organized data and information about disaster risk is foundational to developing an effective Early Warning System, it is important to consolidate the national disaster risk data and information in a meaningful way.

The Woreda Disaster Risk Profiles being developed by NDRMC serve as a solid base upon which to build a national disaster data and information platform. It not only provides a product which profiles the major disaster risk that a woreda faces, but also indicates the hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure elements.

A fully developed network of research of academic centres focusing on DRM should be fostered and the mechanism for constant and continuous exchange of such centres with the institutions involved in DRM should be established.

The woreda disaster risk profiles represent a wealth of information for DRM. The involvement of sectoral ministries to improve the type and quantity of data collection and its subsequent analysis is important to increase the utility of gathered data and extracted information. The engagement of other public entities in the WDRP data collection can be considered to ensure rapid and cost-effective effort; in-house data collection efforts of sectoral ministries and other agencies can be harmonized with the WDRP so as to reduce redundancy. Reducing the number of indicators could improve usability as well as maintenance of the risk profiles in future. The revision of indicators could reflect the experience gathered through the application of the risk profiles in Disaster Mitigation Plans and Emergency plans. The indicators could further be rebalanced to cover the different sectors and taking into account different possible applications. Consistency should be maintained to ensure cross comparability with the already developed risk profiles. Revision of the methodology should also include improvement of the quantitative aspect of the risk profiles – this would make possible the use of the risk profiles for cost benefit analysis.

Digital platforms offer a rapid, low error and cost-effective means of WDRP data collection and storage. IT tools should be developed for a better data collection/update, data storage and analysis of the risk profiles.Moreover, based on the DRM Policy mainstreaming guideline, Lead Agencies should use WDRP as a base for DRR plans.

A fully operational woreda-net system for exchanging risk information from national and regional authorities to woreda DRM structures is on way and should be completed as soon as feasible.

Supplemental and secondary data from other sources, including freely available satellite data can be incorporated to enrich WDRP. Furthermore, web based system and portals should be developed for creating access to all DRR implementors.


ETHIOPIA

22

2) Improve disaster risk monitoring and forecasting systems

The large majority of disasters that strike Ethiopia are climate induced. Hence, it is critical that Ethiopia has a robust weather forecasting system in place. Ethiopia already has a long tradition and experience in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is also an ongoing and solid cooperation with Regional Climate Services, and new initiatives are being implemented in the framework of the Global Framework for Climate Services.

Real-time monitoring systems for both meteorological and hydrological conditions need to be strengthened by automating existing stations and installing new automated stations. Real-time transmission of data is also key for flood monitoring. The combination of open source hardware and software allows for increased flexibility. Existing stations have low spatial coverage and the new stations should improve the quality and timeliness of information. The responsibility of the monitoring network resides with NMA; NDRMC will strengthen the institutional relation to NMA in this respect.

Meteorological and hydrological models need to be downscaled in order to provide more detailed information on target populations. The tools for the delivery of user-specific weather and climate information also need to be improved.

Existing global and regional datasets, and real-time monitoring stations as well as satellite information need to be integrated. Global and regional datasets are of crucial importance for complementing existing national information in many countries in Africa.

Improving systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Access to risk information is critical before and during an emergency. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving data exchange. The MyDewetra platform is a good solution for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations (see also Priority 5). The technological tool needs to be complemented by a data exchange procedure among different organizations and allow for the use of all available information present at the national, as well as the international level. Furthermore, the platform should be tested and contextualized for the Ethiopian environment with local datasets and procedures. Furthermore, the system should be decentralized and able to manage data and information from local authorities. The system should be connected with existing systems in place at NDRMC and line-ministries; this will eventually increases the coordination of different on-going efforts on the hydro meteorological early warning systems, avoiding duplication.


ETHIOPIA

23

3) Further develop communication and dissemination

The dissemination and communication of warnings is crucial before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between monitoring and response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach at risk populations, are understood by them, and that can therefore enable them to act to reduce the impact of a disaster.

Developing a uniform integrated communication system for alerting the population, the communication system needs to include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios and should clearly target different categories of the population with different needs during emergencies. Warnings should use simple colour thresholds and be developed with important coordination among Ethiopian authorities. Attention must be given to develop a communication system able to translate complex technical and scientific information into targeted messages so as to make sure that the information is understood by the entire population. Civil societies and organizations (school, youth associations, etc), can contribute to improving communication and complement information with the local knowledge. The improvement of the warning communication system should also include the elaboration of actions to verify that warnings have been received.

Adopting multiple channels of communication including national, local and indigenous platforms. There are many available technologies that can serve as a reliable communication channel, however in community and national EWS across the globe, no-to-low technology has also provided excellent results in transmitting messages. An effective warning dissemination should be based on multiple channels, from SMS, emails and broadcast to no-to-low technologies (Flags, boards, whistles and megaphones) and can be different for different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or population. Particularly interesting for Ethiopia is the broadcasting to mobile-phones of micro-targeted alerts (see for example the IT-Alert system developed in Italy). In the case of Ethiopia, the multi-lingual aspect is also a challenge to be faced in order to maximise the effectiveness and comprehension of warning messages.

In addition to the multiple channels identified above (i.e. SMS, Broadcast, emails, etc), a web-based portal for risk communication should be established at the national level. The portal should convey information on risk to populations, as well as warnings, and should host organised education material on the subject that can be used to increase the level of preparedness of the population at all levels. The portal should be connected to existing systems such as the Woreda Risk Information system, Woredanet and MyDewetra. This effort should complement and support the current strong local experience in using indigenous knowledge for disseminating information and will also support the decentralization of early warning as per the DRM policy.


ETHIOPIA

24

4) Improve preparedness and response capacity

Communities need to be ready to respond when risk becomes a reality. in order to reduce the impacts of a disaster, the response action should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions.

The National Disaster Risk Management Commission should improve preparedness and response plans so as to encompass pre, during and post disaster phases, from prevention to recovery and rehabilitation. The plans should be context specific and different for high and low land. Specifically, the emergency plans should start from the information collected and produced by the WDRP, by following the already prepared guidelines on the Emergency Plan preparation.

Early Warnings should be connected to Woreda Disaster Risk Profiles and target the hazards that are relevant for the specific woredas.

Awareness creation is fundamental for effectively responding and acting on warnings. This should be built by incorporating DRM within school curricula at an early stage. A scientific method could maximise outcomes. A baseline of citizen awareness should be prepared by organizing a survey. Specific lessons learned mechanisms should be fostered at the community, regional and national level. The mechanism should envisage the gathering of the relevant stakeholders after each event and analysis of the strength and challenges encountered in the emergency management. Within this context a coordinated use of social media can be organized to consolidate the awareness creation before and when the event is imminent.

Disaster Risk Management should be included in education at all levels and should also address Early Warning Systems and improve awareness of the population. In order to do that curricula that include EWS and DRM should be developed at every level of education. In order to improve risk perception and awareness a DRM campaign should be designed and implemented.

A free call centre should be created for the population so that it represents a reference for the risk information in Ethiopia and serves as a data clearing house.

The development of Preparedness and Emergency plans for the whole country based on risk information to define mitigation strategies (e.g. evacuation), different possible severity scenarios and severity of the warning. The plan should also include the development of rehabilitation guidelines. Furthermore, the plan should include a set of prevention and mitigation actions linked with early warning that should be based on evidence. Preparedness plan should include specific measure for food reserve and distribution.


ETHIOPIA

25

The preparedness and emergency plans should be regularly tested through exercises based on prefigured risk scenarios. The drill should test the effectiveness of warnings, the understating of the messages communicated by the authorities, and the actions to be implemented for mitigating the impacts to different sectors. Drills should also address the efficiencies of equipment, logistic capacity and its redundancy.

5) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple levels for Improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system in general

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-GIS platform with an accessible database would enable different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) to access information in real-time. The MyDewetra Platform used in the pilot, could be a starting base for this and should be integrated with other initiatives under the coordination of NDRMC.

Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving data exchange, fostering systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions.

Under this lens, each institution at the regional, national or provincial level should ideally have access to a shared web-GIS platform, accessible according to the organisations’ role and responsibilities within the institutional framework. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share up-to-date information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data and information collected within the woreda risk profile, should also be used in real-time to assess the impact of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the REC’s could also share relevant data about monitoring and outlook through this same platform. The pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, provincial level).

Taylor myDewetra platform to Ethiopian Early Warning Model and integrate to existing systems in place at NDRMC (e.g. LEAP, Geonetcast, WDRP, CATS, EW, LIU, Disaster Inventory, SPIF). The platform should be translated in Amharic and be user friendly.

Capacity building should encompass several tasks: Provision of ICT equipment at all levels; Provide training at every level; Provide financial assistance for administrations; Provide continuous technical assistance.

Improvement of data sharing protocols and a legal framework to ensure data exchange as well as a framework for coordination, including to strengthen transboundary risk management.


ETHIOPIA

26

3. UR Tanzania



The Disaster Management Act, 2015, sets out a comprehensive legal framework for disaster risk management in UR Tanzania. It provides for the establishment of a national focal point for coordination of disaster risk reduction and management in the country, acting as the central planning, coordinating and monitoring institution for the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and post disaster recovery, considering all potential disaster risks. Currently this role is covered by the Prime Minister Office (PMO). The Tanzania Disaster Management Council (TADMAC) advises the Minister Responsible for disaster risk management or any sector ministry on any disaster related matter in the country detailed in the act. In the performance of its functions, the council is responsible for:

• ensuring that disaster risk reduction interventions are integrated into the relevant governmental institutions, development policies, strategies and programs at the national, regional, and local levels

• providing support in the mobilization of resources for effective disaster risk reduction and management, advocating the development of national information and knowledge management strategies

• the establishment of stakeholder networks for disaster risk management, reviewing and updating the disaster risk management policies.

The Disaster Management Department (DMD), in the Office of the Prime Minister coordinates disaster management activities in Tanzania mainland. DMD seeks to ensure that in times of disaster, appropriate response systems, procedures and resources are in place to assist those affected. DMD is also in charge of coordinating disaster preparedness efforts and activities in order to minimize the adverse effects of hazards through effective precautionary measures and to ensure timely appropriate and efficient organization and delivery of emergency humanitarian services.

In addition to the Act, disaster risk management in UR Tanzania is guided by the National Disaster Management Policy and the National Operational Guidelines for Disaster Management. Other disaster management tools in the country include the Tanzania Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan (TEPRP) and Tanzania Disaster Communication Strategy (TDCS). Finally, disaster risk management initiatives in UR Tanzania are supported by a number of sectoral policies, laws, strategies and plans.


UR TANZANIA

27

UR Tanzania’s major strengths in EWS are in Disaster Risk Knowledge and in Warning Communication and Dissemination. In this component in particular, the institutional framework is very detailed and well established. Procedures extend down to the very local level, are extremely functional, and are well established, however, more investment is needed to ensure timely warning and understandable to diversy communities. Preparedness and Response and Monitoring and Forecasting, are the areas where the country needs the most investment of resources, but here too initiatives are underway, such as to increase institutional collaboration in the monitoring network and in forecasting.


UR Tanzania has a solid framework for the identification of roles and responsibilities. Furthermore, flood and drought hazards are well assessed, though there is need for further scientific study on urban flooding. It is rather in the identification of exposure, vulnerability and capacity that quantitative assessments are not systematic. Regrettably, the risk information developed by organisations working in the country is also not yet sufficiently consolidated and incorporated into the EWS. The incorporation that does occur is rarely expressed in quantitative terms. Cascading events which are qualitatively evaluated include droughts (i.e. related to food security) and floods (i.e. related to disease outbreaks such as cholera).


UR Tanzania’s monitoring of hydrometeorological data is good, although the spatial coverage (currently at about 300 stations) can be improved. Likewise, the number of automatic stations, currently 80, can be increased. Appropriate technical equipment is installed in some pilot sites and staff has been trained for its maintenance under the coordination of TMA and MoW. The inter-institutional data exchange is recognized as a priority, but is in its early stages. The new e-government Act, 2019 provides a good framework to speed up the implementation of exchange modalities. Work on interoperability has also begun.


In the case of warning communication and dissemination, UR Tanzania’s system is efficient and detailed. National policies regulate the role of each actor. The responsibilities of warning dissemination and information clearing are well set. The capillarity of the system at the ward level is very good and procedures exist. Points to be improved include an development and formalisation of standard operating procedures to ensure the coordination among operators, especially at the local level. Feedback mechanisms are currently informal and steps should be taken to formalize them. In terms of the resilience of communications that are made, the resilience of systems is not assessed and they are not automated in the case of events developing in a short time frame. Finally, there is a discrepancy between the clarity and quality of drought warnings when compared to flood warnings. For droughts, warnings are impact-based and highly detailed, but flood warning messages are designed for specialized personnel only, which might be ineffective for fast onset hazards. However, the messages are disseminated at different levels and verification processes exist.


UR TANZANIA

28


UR Tanzania has integrated disaster risk reduction education into its education system, helping create more awareness among youth and increasing the country’s preparedness to disasters. That being said, most of the population does not have the technical capability to translate and understand warnings messages correctly or react appropriately. Education and awareness campaigns attempts through television and radio programmes have tried to rectify this, but it remains an important issue to be addressed. Related to this is the absence of preparedness plans for the majority of district councils. Initiatives have been made in pilot sites to link the severity of the warning issued to appropriate actions, yet these have not been implemented throughout the country.

3.2 Road map

The analysis of the existing system in UR Tanzania highlights well established roles and responsibilities and a good knowledge of the main weather related hazards in the country. The Authorities are well trusted and they recognize the crucial value of the ‘last-mile connectivity’ in warning communication. Warning messages are clearly linked to response actions with increasing detail as they move to local level, but there is lack of contingency planning.


From an organizational and institutional point of view, UR Tanzania’s present road map builds on a solid basis. All institutions involved in the EWS phases are committed to their mandate and some resources (human and budgetary) are recognized by the government in support of the institutions’ respective mandates. However, improvements are necessary in all the four components of the EWS. This is particularly the case for the implementation of the prevention and preparedness tools foreseen in the legislation. Emergency plans foreseen by the law to be at any level do not show the same level of implementation across the country. Dar es Salaam initiative started with funding from Regional Commissioner's Office in 2011 and letter from PMO 2012-14 which involved development of DARMAERT EPRP and establishment of EOC and cureently support from WB has been on review of the DarMAERT EPRP, training and municipal level EPRP is at initial stage. Also between 2011 to 2018 there have been capacity building in 20 districts which have Emergency Preparedness and Response plans. It is recommended to focus on the completion of the municipals Emergency plans for all district councils, using already existing experience. Risk knowledge, in its quantitative aspect, is not fully considered in the preparedness actions and in the preparation of emergency plans and therefore, it is recommended to consider this quantitative aspect when developing the emergency plans.

Warning messages are only loosely connected with impact scenario descriptions, which results in actions recommended to the population being too general. A closer connection between


UR TANZANIA

29

the severity of the forecasted event, its impact and the actions recommended at different levels, from the civil protection system, down to the population should be sought. The available risk knowledge is sparse and insufficiently consolidated to support preparedness and warning activities and its dissemination could be improved.

UR Tanzania has developed a clear identification of roles and responsibilities of different institutions and has established policies mandating risk assessment. Archives of historical data related to flood and droughts, as well as for other hazards, are being updated and plans to incorporate them into risk maps exist. This is clearly reflected in the newly developed national DRR strategy under adoption. The country should also complete flood/drought hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping for the whole territory to identify threats and potential consequences and consolidate risk information to support preparedness plans. Based on the institution responsible for this task is the PMO-DMD which coordinate the other institutions involved and who can provide scientific and technical support to the risk assessment process.

UR Tanzania should aim at improving the monitoring and forecasting services by increasing the use of automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge) and initiating advancements in the technological and scientific tools in support of the monitoring and forecast system.

UR Tanzania should aim at improving the operational capacity of the EOC that should provide a 365/24/7 service implementing fail-safe systems and standardized procedures for the issuing of warnings. The responsibility should fall once again on PMO-DMD, in collaboration with TMA and MoW, in support of the multi-level system. Initiatives have been established to strengthen the coordination between PMO-DMD, TMA and MoW in data exchange during emergencies. However, such initiatives only reached a certain level of implementation and should be continued to consolidate a sustainable result. Operational hydrology is a mandate of MoW and activities have commenced at pilot sites. However, the process is in its early stages; it should be considered as a priority action.

Dissemination and communication of warnings should be improved, under the coordination role of PMO, in order to be able to reach populations with timely, impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. The hierarchical organization in place is the perfect vehicle for these messages, but improvements are needed in the means used for communication and in the connection between messages, the expected scenario and the related action.

3.2.2 Priorities

The present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering UR Tanzania’s national context and the stakeholder consultations’ outcomes. The priorities listed below are not meant to be in order of importance.


UR TANZANIA

30


1) Consolidate risk knowledge

Disaster risk knowledge is of concern to multitudes of national organizations, civil societies and the general public. A wealth of information on risk is currently available but it requires more systematic organisation by the national authorities. Hence, practitioners and the general public continue to have limited access to relevant risk information. The understanding of risk is foundational to any Early Warning System. Awareness should further be high among organizations and individuals who are part of the EWS. The country level quantitative risk profile for floods and droughts developed by DMD-PMO in partnership with the CIMA Foundation and UNDRR is a solid basis of scientific information on disaster risk. Its results are relevant for multiple stakeholders and their use should be emphasised. The by-products of the risk profile provide important inputs for other types of analysis depending on the need of other DRR stakeholders.

Continue to fine tune existing and develop new risk knowledge (risk assessment and mapping). The risk profile for flood and drought risk is a solid basis, but it does not cover other key hazards for UR Tanzania. The risk profile should be downscaled at the local level. There is a need to develop risk scenarios at the local and national scales to inform emergency planning that should fully integrate Early Warnings and Action.

Organize existing risk knowledge and information into a single national database that can serve as a risk information clearing house and can be used by multiple stakeholders to inform decisions and actions across the full disaster risk management cycle. It would aim to improve the accessibility of risk information for both the organizations and the practitioners. This unique central standardized repository for risk information (in digital open source GIS format), accessible to all relevant institutions, would improve the use of produced risk knowledge. This initiative should be connected with the provisions in the e-Government Act, 2019.

Mainstream and raise awareness of existing risk knowledge at the national and sub-national level for organizations and for individuals. Promote the use of risk information for mitigation (flood and drought) in plans and policy tools, (e.g. in the emergency plans for the identification of evacuation zones and safe shelters (for floods).

Monitor local government authorities achievement on the integration of the risk knowledge in preparedness and response plan.

2) Improve the monitoring and forecasting system

The Tanzania Meteorological Authority has a long tradition and experience in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is good cooperation with Regional Climate Services and new initiatives are being implemented in the framework of the Global Environmental Fund. The Ministry of Water has the responsibility for water resource management, however the capacity for monitoring and forecasting the hydrological conditions is at its starting point and needs to be strengthened.

Develop capacities for impact based Early Warnings. An impact-based Forecast and Warning approach translates meteorological and hydrological hazards into sector and location- specific impacts and facilitates the identification of mitigation actions for reducing those impacts. Impact-based forecasts must be a joint work of TMA, MoW and PMO.

Improve systematic and real-time data and information sharing among institutions. Access to risk information is critical before and during emergencies. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving the data exchange. The pilot demonstration using the platform MyDewetra showed the added value of using open web-GIS platforms for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations (see also Priority 5). The technological tool needs to be complemented by a data exchange procedure among different organizations at both the national and international level.


UR TANZANIA

31

2) Improve the monitoring and forecasting system

Strengthen the real-time monitoring system , including for transboundary monitoring, for both meteorological and hydrological conditions by automating existing stations and through additional installation of new automated stations. Real-time transmission of data is also key for flood monitoring. Open hardware stations can be a valid solution for disaster management. They can be adapted to the needs of the different sites; they do not require a maintenance fee; maintenance can be handled directly by the owner (i.e. staff of national or local organizations properly trained).

Develop operational hydrological modelling. Operational hydrology is a younger discipline than operational meteorology and climatology and is less developed. The Ministry of Water within the framework of the project “Strengthening Climate Information and Early Warning Systems in UR Tanzania for Climate Resilient Development and Adaptation to Climate Change” developed hydrologic operational models in two pilot basins. The effort needs to be consolidated in order to be sustainable and expanded to the other part of the Tanzanian river basins. It is recommended that the MoW invest in human resources dedicated to this task. The hydrological modelling will be fed by the TMA forecasts and observation data, meaning that TMA and MoW will need to cooperate even more closely than they are cooperating currently.

Develop operational hydrological modelling for all main rivers in UR Tanzania under the responsibility of MoW to inform both flood and drought forecasts. There is also a need to develop a Flash Floods forecasting system. Flash Floods forecasting is a joint responsibility of TMA and MoW.

Improve tools for the delivery of user-specific weather and climate information.

Integrate existing global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations. Global and regional datasets are of crucial importance for complementing existing automatic stations in UR Tanzania, as in many countries in Africa.

Integration of remote sensing datasets. Earth observation can partially remedy the lack of in situ data. Satellite technology offers different accessible information and tools that can be used in meteorological and hydrological monitoring and forecasting.


UR TANZANIA

32


The dissemination and communication of warnings is crucial before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between monitoring and response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach populations at risk, are understood by them, and will enable them to act, thereby reducing the impact of a disaster.

Develop a uniform integrated communication system for alerting the population. An activity on Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) compliance is ongoing and should be strengthened. The communication system should include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios. It should clearly target different categories of the population with different needs during emergencies. Extreme attention should be given to the development of a communication system able to translate a complex technical and scientific information into simple language so as to make sure that the information is understood by the entire population. Civil societies and national and local organizations (school, youth associations, etc.) can effectively contribute to improving communication and complement it with local knowledge. The improvement of the warning communication system should also include the elaboration of actions that verify that warnings have been received. This can be fulfilled in a formal agreement with the media (private sector) along the lines of collaborations already existing in UR Tanzania.

Adopt multiple channels of communication. There are many available technologies that can serve as reliable communication channels, however in community and national EWS across the globe, no-to-low technology has also provided excellent results in transmitting messages. An effective warning dissemination should be based on multiple channels, from SMS to emails, and broadcast to no-to-low technologies (Flags, boards, whistles and megaphones). These can further be adapted to different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or the general population.

Develop automated systems for issuing warnings for events which have a short time frame. Although the capillarity of the waring communication mechanism in UR Tanzania is remarkable, improvements should be sought in the timeliness for receiving messages that nowadays relies heavily on formal written communications at many levels of the chain.

Raise awareness of communities about the different communication systems and channels available so as to increase the efficiency of EWS related actions.

Strengthen interagency protocols for data exchange and improve the consistency of the current warning language, in order to ameliorate the circulation of information among the key institutions.


UR TANZANIA

33

4) Improve preparedness and response capacity

Communities need to be ready to respond in case risk becomes a reality. In order to reduce the impact of disasters, response actions should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions.

Develop emergency plans for the whole country based on risk information so as to define scenarios for possible severities linked and link these to mitigation strategies (e.g. evacuation) and targeted warnings (based on severity). This development should be overseen by DMD-PMO. Emergency plans should be designed considering specific local hazards, exposure and vulnerability, ideally through a participatory approach and integrate Early Warning and Action systems for both slow and sudden disasters (floods, flash floods, droughts, etc.)

Country risk profiles should form the basis for the preparation of emergency plans.

Design and hold regular exercises and drills (e.g. multiscale field/table-top exercises) to test the response capacity of the institutions and of the population. The drills should test the effectiveness of warnings, the understating of the messages communicated by the authorities and the actions to be implemented for mitigating the impacts to different sectors, as well as the efficiency of equipment and its redundancy.

Carry out public awareness campaigns to inform the citizens about potential impacts, behaviours and actions to be taken in case of warnings. The public awareness campaigns should be developed in partnership with the communities they aim to reach.

To enhance the effectiveness of emergency plans, reinforce the already available education and awareness campaigns, instructing people how to distinguish between different warning severities: specifically how to respond according to the different types of warnings and alerts.


UR TANZANIA

34

5) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple levels for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system in general

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-GIS platform, with an accessible database - with relevant and up-to-date information on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, as well as, importantly, relevant results layers from different types of complementary risk assessments - would enable different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) to access and analyse information in real-time. The MyDewetra Platform established in UR Tanzania as part of a pilot project, could be a starting point and should be integrated with other initiatives under the coordination of PMO. Modern technologies offer practical solutions to improve data exchange, foster systematic and real-time data/information sharing among different institutions. Institutions at the regional, national and provincial level would greatly benefit from access to the same, shared web-GIS platform, supporting their role and responsibilities within the institutional framework. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share updated information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data used for the production of risk profiles as well as their actual results can be used in real-time to assess the impacts of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the REC’s could also share relevant monitoring and outlook data through this same platform. The pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, local level).

Creation of a shared platform for the integration of risk information. Risk information should be incorporated in a shared platform and readily available to be used for the construction of real-time impact scenarios. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers should be maintained and updated by different responsible institutions. In creating the platform, a strong and functional connection should be established with the NSDI (National Spatial Data infrastructure) envisaged in the e-Government Act, 2019. The platform should form an integrated system with the governmental data sharing platform and should be able to pull all important data information from the NSDI.

Design and implement regulations to ensure data accessibility and sharing. Standard Operational Protocols should be implemented among all contributing organizations, to ensure that data is effectively channelled among institutions. This is envisaged by law in the e-Government Act, 2019.

Integration records about past disaster events into the platform. Centralized disaster loss databases (e.g. DesInventar) should be connected to the platform.

Integrate all analysis tools for monitoring and forecasting, including global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations, forecasting models and remote sensing dataset.

Prepare warning messages (bulletins) making use of specialised functions made available and integrated into the platform, which can facilitate the preparation and dissemination of warning messages.


UR TANZANIA

35

4. Zambia



The key policy document, the National Disaster Management Policy of 2015, together with National Disaster Management Act n. 13/2010, indicate a national system aiming for an integrated risk management system that encompasses prevention, preparedness and response all the while taking into account climate change and decentralising competences in the domain of civil and environmental protection. The disaster management system in Zambia is led by three main organizations: the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC), responsible for policy; the National Disaster Management Technical Committee (NDMTC), responsible for technical advice; and the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU), responsible for implementation. DMMU, under the Office of the Vice-President, provides coordination between the institutions involved in disaster management and key sectoral ministries (Health, Agriculture, Energy and Water). The Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) provides monitoring and forecasting on weather and climate extremes. The Zambia Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) is the national regulatory body for the management and development of water resources as well as it provides hydrological monitoring and forecasts.

Based on the analysis of the four components of the EWS performed in view of the development of the present road map, Zambia’s strongest components are Disaster Risk Knowledge and Monitoring and Forecasting. The institutional framework is well established in these two components and ongoing initiatives in expanding the monitoring network are promising. More resources need to be invested in both Preparedness and Response and in Warming Dissemination and Communication, in particular for floods.


Key national government agencies involved in risk assessment are well identified and coordinated by DMMU. Difficulties reside in the consolidation of information on flood and drought risk, which is somewhat dispersed and therefore not optimal: historical data is not yet used efficiently, the quantification of exposure and vulnerability is not always pursued, and the hazard maps that exist remain coarse. For droughts, cascading effects are well known and analysed (in particular for food security), but not for floods. The quantitative disaster risk profile completed in 2019 jointly by DMMU, UNDRR and the CIMA Research Foundation, and endorsed by the Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Commission (ZVAC) contributes to the improvement of disaster risk knowledge, providing a uniform understanding of risk in all its components at the national level. While local flood risk assessment and mapping is necessary to inform local emergency plans, the risk profile is a robust base to build on.


ZAMBIA

36


Zambia has a hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting network in place that includes automatic stations, but the coverage remains low (126 stations; 86 automatic stations). Some initiatives to expand the network are ongoing, which will greatly improve forecasting abilities and the accuracy of warnings. Currently, investments are needed in staff training and technical equipment. On the institutional front, roles and procedures are established, but the processes of data exchange and coordination between institutions are not formalized or more specifically automatic. While hydrometeorological data are computed with up-to-date technologies and models, hydrological forecasting is a fast evolving domain which requires attention and development.


Many different types of media are used in Zambia’s communication and dissemination of warning. The latter are very detailed for droughts. Early warnings for floods are not in place. There are presently no set mechanisms to verify whether warnings have reached the target population and work is required to identify ways of ensuring the greatest coverage. DMMU acts as a coordinator, but there are no standard operating procedures for the uniform codification of warnings, nor for the sharing of information from the national to the local level.


Zambia has implemented disaster risk reduction education programmes from primary school to universities, which helps raise the country’s preparedness level. Nevertheless, Zambia does not have preparedness plans for the whole country, only in select pilot sites. Regrettably, the latter do not always sufficiently account for the needs of people with different vulnerabilities, and not regular exercises nor updates are undertaken to keep the population prepared for their efficient execution in case of a disaster. In terms of response, designated early actions correspond to different severities of warning, but only for drought. Sufficient funding is not set aside to support rapid response.

4.2 Road map

The analysis of the existing system in Zambia highlights that stakeholder roles are well established and ongoing initiatives to respond to natural hazards, especially those aimed at improving disaster risk knowledge and the monitoring network are strong. However, many initiatives are limited to pilot sites. Monitoring and warning systems for drought are in place and the population responds based on the different severities indicated.


Zambia has developed a clear identification of roles and responsibilities of different institutions and has established policies mandating risk assessment. Archives of historical data related to flood and droughts are currently undergoing a reorganization in order to incorporate them into risk maps.


ZAMBIA

37

The country should complete flood/drought hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping at local scale for the whole territory to identify threats and potential consequences and to consolidate risk information to support preparedness plans. The institutions currently responsible of this task according to the legislative review should be the DMMU in the role of a coordinator, the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC), the National Disaster Management Technical Committee (NDMTC), the respective Ministries of Health, of Agriculture, of Energy and Water development, of Community Development, and the Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Commission (ZVAC).

The country should also complete the set-up of an adequate monitoring and forecasting service including by increasing the number of automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge), further training the personnel, setting-up of warning centres to be operational 24/7, of fail-safe systems and of standardized procedures for issuing warnings. The responsibility for these actions should be with the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) and Zambia Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA), in coordination with DMMU and in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Technical Committee (NDMTC).

Dissemination and communication of warnings should be improved in order to be able to reach the population with impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. This objective should be achieved under the coordination of the DMMU, but with the support of Provincial and District Disaster Management Committees (PDMC, DDMC), Satellite Disaster Management Committees (SDMC), ZMD and Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA).

A framework for preparedness and response, incorporating Early Warning should be reinforced as it is currently in its early stages with the exception of a few rural pilot sites. The actors involved are the Ministry of Defence, Provincial and District Disaster Management Committee (DDMC, PDMC). The consolidation of risk information and the forecasting system will build a new baseline for the construction of preparedness plans.

4.2.2 Priorities

The present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering Zambia’s national context. The priorities listed below are not in order of importance.


ZAMBIA

38


1) Strengthen institutional and legal framework on EWS (to improve all 4 components)

An effective Early Warning and Action system needs to be based on a solid institutional framework with a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities among organizations and agencies. DMMU has a strong coordination mandate which it executes effectively through the national and sub-national committees, composed of multitudes of stakeholders from the national and sub-national levels, international organizations and civil societies.

This first priority aims to support the continued development of regulations (either existing or new) that assign clear roles and responsibilities to the different institutions involved in the overall system and develop operational procedures for the preparation of multi-hazard warnings, dissemination and related actions at all administrative levels.

Starting from the National Disaster Management Policy, 2015, develop regulations for assigning roles and responsibilities to national and local authorities as well as for different levels of warnings and authorities responsible for action implementation.

Integrate Early Warning System into national and local emergency/contingency planning.

2) Strengthen risk knowledge

Disaster risk knowledge is of concern to multitudes of national organizations, civil societies and the general public. There is a wealth of information on risk that is currently available but not systematically organized by national authorities. Hence, practitioners and the general public often have limited accessibility to the diverse knowledge products. The understanding of risk is foundational to any Early Warning System. Awareness should be high among organizations and individuals which are part of the EWS. DMMU is developing an Open Risk Data Hub that can improve the accessibility to risk knowledge at the national level. The quantitative disaster risk profile developed in 2019 by DMMU, UNDRR, and the CIMA Research Foundation is a solid basis of scientific information for flood and drought risk.

Organize existing risk knowledge and information in a single national database that can serve as a risk information clearing house and can be used by multiple stakeholders to inform decision making and actions across the entire disaster risk management cycle. The above would aim to support cross sectoral synergies and provide information for resilience dividends.

Mainstream existing risk knowledge at national and sub-national level for organizations and also for individuals. Mainstreaming should aim at improving accessibility to risk information for multiple stakeholders from national and sub-national organizations to practitioners.

Develop new risk knowledge (risk assessment and mapping). The quantitative 2019 disaster risk profile for floods and droughts is a solid base, however, it does not cover other key hazards for Zambia and should be downscaled at local level. Furthermore, there is a need to develop risk scenarios at local and national scale to inform emergency planning which should fully integrate Early Warnings and Action


ZAMBIA

39

3) Improve monitoring and forecasting system

The Zambia Meteorological Department has a long tradition and experience in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is also good cooperation with Regional Climate Services and new initiatives are being implemented with the support of the European Union and in the framework of the Global Frameworks for Climate Services—Africa. Zambia Water Resources Management Authority holds the responsibility for water resource management, but the capacity for monitoring and forecasting the hydrological conditions needs strengthening.

Strengthen the real-time monitoring systems for both meteorological and hydrological conditions. This should be done by fostering automatization of existing stations and installation of new stations. Real-time transmission of data is key for flood monitoring. Open hardware stations can be a valid solution for disaster management.

Develop operational hydrological modelling. Operational hydrology is a younger discipline than operational meteorology and climatology and it is less developed. WARMA has established a cooperation with ECMWF to use GLOFAS in Zambia. Hydrological modelling needs to be developed for all main rivers in Zambia and will inform both flood and drought forecasts. There is also a need to develop a flash flood forecasting system. The responsibility for flash floods is with the Zambia Meteorological Department. Integrate existing global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations. Global and regional datasets have a crucial importance for complementing existing automatic stations in Zambia. Integrate remote sensing datasets. Earth observation can partially remedy the lack of in situ data. Satellite technology offers different accessible information and tools that can be used for meteorological, hydrological, and drought monitoring and forecasting. Develop capacities for impact-based Early Warnings. An impact-based forecast and warning approach translates meteorological and hydrological hazards into sector- and location-specific impacts, thus facilitating the identification of mitigation actions to reduce such impacts. Impact-based forecasts must be a joint work of the Zambia Meteorology Department, WARMA and DMMU. Improve systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Access to risk information is critical before and during emergencies. Modern technologies offer practical solutions to improve data exchange. A pilot demonstration of Zambia’s MyDewetra platform showed the added value of using a open source web-GIS platform to share and change risk information among different organizations (see also Priority 6). The technological tool needs to be complemented with a data exchange procedure agreed by the different organizations.


ZAMBIA

40


The dissemination and communication of warnings is crucial before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between monitoring and response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach the populations at risk, are understood by them, and can therefore enable them to act to reduce the impact of a disaster.

Develop a uniform integrated communication system for alerting the population (i.e. Common Alerting Protocol and colour code for alert). The communication system should include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios and it should clearly identify “who communicates what”. Extreme attention should be given to develop a communication system able to translate a complex technical and scientific message in a simple language so as to ensure that the information, including that relates to self protection actions, is understood by the entire targeted population. Civil society organisations and national or local organizations (school, youth associations, etc.) can effectively contribute to improving communication by complementing local knowledge. Adopt multiple channels of communication. There are many available technologies that can serve as reliable communication channels. In community-based and national EWS across the globe, no-to-low technology has also provided excellent results for transmitting messages. An effective warning dissemination should be based on multiple channels, from SMS to email, and broadcast to no-to-low technologies (flags, boards, whistles and megaphones) and be adapted to different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or the population at risk.

5) Improve Preparedness and response capacity

Communities need to be ready to respond in case risk becomes a adverse reality. In order to reduce negative impacts, the response action should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or a disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions.

LInk community-based emergency planning to the national warning. DMMU should seek to provide guidelines for the implementation of emergency plans at the local level. Emergency plans should be designed by taking into account specific local hazard, exposure and vulnerability, ideally through a participatory approach and integrate Early Warning and Action systems for both slow and sudden disasters (flood, flash floods, droughts etc.)

Practice and exercise (e.g. multiscale field/tabletop exercises). Regular exercises and drills should be planned to test the response capacity of the institutions and the population. The drill should test the effectiveness of warnings, the understating of the messages communicated by the authorities, and the actions to be implemented for mitigating the impacts to different sectors.

Public awareness campaigns should be carried out to inform civil society organisations and populations about potential impacts, behaviours, and actions to be taken in the case of warnings. The public awareness campaign should be developed in partnership with civil society organisations and with representatives of citizen/stakeholder groups.


ZAMBIA

41

6) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple levels for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-GIS platform, with a database accessible to different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) would enable them to access relevant information in real-time. The MyDewetra platform could be a starting point and could be integrated with the Open Risk Data Hub and platform being developed at DMMU. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving the data exchange, fostering systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions.

Reflecting their role and responsibilities within the institutional framework for preparedness, each institution at the regional, national or provincial level should ideally have access to a jointly populated and shared web-GIS platform. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share updated information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data and information used in Zambia’s 2019 quantitative disaster risk profile for floods and drought (data pertaining to exposure, vulnerability, or hazard maps, etc.) may also be used in real-time to assess the impact of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the Regional Economic Community should also contribute to a national data platform and share relevant monitoring and outlook data. The MyDewetra pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a open source web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, provincial level).

Design and implement regulations to ensure data accessibility and data sharing. Standard Operational Protocols should be implemented among all contributing organizations, in order to ensure that data is effectively managed and used by organisations.

Integrate risk information and data in a shared platform. Risk information should be incorporated in the shared platform and readily available to be used for the construction of real-time impact scenarios. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers should be maintained and updated by different responsible institutions.

Integrate records of past events into the platform. The national disaster loss databases (e.g. DesInventar) should be connected to the platform.

Integrate all analysis tools for monitoring and forecasting into the platform, including global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations, forecasting models and remote sensing dataset.

Prepare warning messages (bulletins). Integrated into the platform, specific technological tools should facilitate the preparation and dissemination of warning messages.


ZAMBIA

42

5. The Continental and Sub-Continental Levels6

5.1 Overview of Functions and capacities

The coordination function of the African Union Commission (AUC) in the case of disasters is a complex one that requires the contribution of different departments that have already developed key competences to efficiently perform such functions. The key AUC departments are described below:

1. The Department of Rural Economy and Agriculture (DREA) plays a central role in the system as it has the mandate to facilitate and coordinate the implementation of the Africa Regional Strategy on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and its Programme of Action (PoA) in line with the Sendai Framework. This mandate clearly includes achievements in the target G of the Sendai Framework - “Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030.” DREA is also mandated to enhance capacities of Member States and RECs to access near real time environmental monitoring is important for natural resources, and climate information for policy and decision making, and development planning. Importantly, near real-time environmental information is particularly relevant to support trans-boundary risk management and prioritization of supranational interventions. As such, DREA also has the potential to coordinate policy on EWS and preparedness as part of climate adaptation actions in close connection with multipurpose climate, weather and water services.

2. The Department of Political Affairs (DPA) is responsible for promoting, facilitating, coordinating and encouraging democratic principles and the rule of law, respect for human rights, participation of civil society in the development process of the continent and the achievement of durable solutions for addressing humanitarian crises. The responsibilities for humanitarian assistance are particularly relevant, as well as its role in engaging UN entities. The DPA, through its function Humanitarian Affairs, Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (HARDP), can also provide insight into the link between disasters and migration, as well as IDPs intensification during or in the immediate aftermath of a disaster.

3. The Department of Social Affairs (DSA) works to promote the AU’s health, labor, employment, migration, social development, drug control, crime prevention, sport and cultural agenda. DSA’s role in case of disasters is notably important because health implications during disasters are crucial to assess and mitigate. With this in mind, DSA’s cooperation with the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) is highly strategic. DSA is also responsible for promoting social protection during emergencies in order to increase the resilience of the population through disaster risk financing mechanisms. Such risk transfer mechanisms are essential for an efficient DRM cycle implementation and can be naturally linked to EWS (e.g. through parametric insurance).

6 For a complete description of the road map of AUC please refer to Annex 5


AUC

43

4. The Peace and Security Department (PSD) supports the Peace and Security Council (PSC) in the exercise of its responsibilities under the PSC Protocol. It leads the main activities of the AU Commission related to peace, security, conflict resolution and the promotion of stability. PSD is also responsible for conflict prevention and early warning, as well as crisis management and post-conflict reconstruction. As such, PSD has a strong capacity of intervention in the field during disastrous events, including for Search and Rescue (SAR) activities.

5. The Human Resources, Science & Technology Department (HRST) coordinates the AU programmes on human resource development, education, science, technology and promoting the youth development agenda. This department provides different key contributions to the coordination function: through the provision of technical capacity in the fields of GIS and data analysis, or by creating the link with the capacity development network in cooperation with universities and research centres to support, in the long term, the coordination function itself.

Currently coordination among the five departments above exists on a practical level, based on voluntary cooperation. There is a need to revise and formalize the coordination among the departments. Coordination among the five departments is critical in the planning phase. The platform can facilitate understanding what happens if the facilities managed by the departments are affected by a disasters, and accordingly design contingency plans. A possibility being currently discussed in AUC is the establishment of an inter-departmental task force. The added value of a strengthened AUC coordination function includes

• Provide a strong financial mechanism to support Member States in case of disasters (e.g. revision of the Drought Response Fund into a Disaster Response Fund).

• Provide coordination of training and education in support of DRR with focus on prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response

• Provide response resources to countries in case of a disaster• Create a favourable environment for the creation of a Civil Protection and DRR culture• Create an enabling environment (Legal & Technological) for an efficient data and information

sharing among MS

5.2 Towards a Supranational Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS)

Experiences in other parts of the world, especially in Europe, demonstrate that an effective Early Warning mechanism can enable preparedness and resilience of systems to withstand extreme weather phenomena. There are ongoing efforts across the African continent with regards to natural hazard Early Warning and Early Action, utilizing available climate and geological information.

Climate centres have been established in regions and countries across Africa, but a gap still exists as these are not yet operational in all regions. An ongoing programme on Global Climate Framework Services (GFCS) which intends to address this challenge is being implemented by


AUC

44

the African Union Commission and the RECs.The weakness of the climate centres is the first challenge facing Africa.

A second gap can be observed in terms of the use of risk information: while progress has been made in terms of setting up climate centres and the generation of weather climate information, such information is not being used to formulate appropriate action to prevent or mitigate the effects of the hazards. Hydro-meteorological hazards continue to occur and result in recurrent disasters of the same, if not higher, magnitudes.

A third gap is caused by ineffective coordination of ongoing early warning activities. There are multiple Early Warning Systems across the continent, but such systems are not adequately coordinated or linked to decision making mechanisms that are required to translate early warning information into action. While the responsibility of national EWS is mandated to national authorities, its effectiveness relies on data and information that can be exchanged according to a common format and SoPs among neighboring countries, RECs, ACMAD, and AUC.

The establishment of a MHEWS requires a combination of cross-cutting enabling factors:

• Legal Framework: the legal framework should clearly support the institutions in their operations before, during and after the event takes place by defining clear roles and responsibilities, as well as defining human and economic resources for the sustainability of the overall system. The legal framework should also appropriately address the data sharing policies among institutions and identify clear mandates for the different actors.

• Institutional setup: on the basis of the roles defined in the legal framework, the institutions should organize internally and in relation to all the actors of the system so as to comply with those roles by selecting appropriate human resources and defining clear SoPs for the different activities to be performed. This is done with in mind that the responsibility of transboundary risk management and prioritization of external assistance is one that is co-shared with supranational organizations.

• Capacity Development: at different levels: an effective continental MHEWS requires that individuals possess the appropriate knowledge and skills to perform the tasks defined by the SoPs. As such, staff in the key institutions should be trained to quickly develop the requested analytical and decisional capabilities. Teams should continuously benefit from South-South and North-South cooperation especially in connection with cutting-edge operation services such as the Copernicus services, EUMETSAT, etc. However, a MHEWS at continental level cannot be sustained without a structural capacity which allows for knowledge to be permanently generated and seamlessly transferred to the system itself. It is therefore considered a critical asset to develop, through long-term collaboration between specialised organisations and African universities/research centres, specific academic curricula that can permanently feed into the system by providing both people and knowledge. Practical implementation should also be supported, by offering opportunities for traineeships, study exchanges, etc.

• Technological support: technological means are required when it comes to forecasting, communicating and monitoring hazardous events. They facilitate the exchange of information at all levels. This is a precondition for the effective management of the preparedness, and


AUC

45

monitoring phase especially in a system that needs to work smoothly across multiple levels, from the continental to the regional, and the national to the local levels.

• Figure 3 details the workflow of implementation of the system by identifying the four pillars of action that contribute to the overall system and that provide essential information to be consulted by the coordination operation room. The thematic components that need to be developed in parallel to one another and in connection with all the other initiatives include Risk Knowledge, Monitoring and Forecasting; Dissemination & Communication, Preparedness & Response, including raising public awareness.

Figure 3. Implementation Concept for the Establishment of the Supranational Multi-Hazard Early Warning System in Africa for Early Action and Transboundary Risk

1. Risk knowledge is essential to determine the right scenarios to be addressed in the preparation phase and to assess the capacity to respond to the different possible scenario realizations. Important investments have already been made in developing national risk profiles. Country level probabilistic risk profiles are a strong asset when applied in support of a continental EWS. They need continuous improvement in order to be ready for use for multiple related applications. Quantitative risk profiles provide a measure of the risk, highlighting areas with high concentrations of potentially affected people, or at risk of physical and economic damages to infrastructures. Fully probabilistic risk profiles analyse all possible flood and drought loss scenarios. These scenarios, eventually used to produce the risk curve, can also be used as a basis for emergency planning. The scenarios, identified for the probabilistic risk assessment, provide a unique reference for understanding the

ACMADRECS CC

DRMA NHMSDRMA

ACMAD

NHMS

DRMA

AUC DREA

RECS DRRDPA

RECS DRR

UN System, International Organizations and Governments

AUC DREA African Union Commission DRR Unit and Meteorology Unit

DPA Department for Political Affairs

DSA AUC Department for Social Affairs

PSD Department for Peace and Security

ACMAD African Center of MeteorologicalApplications for Development

RECS DRR Regional Economic CommunitiesDisaster Risk Reduction Unit

RECS CC Regional Economic CommunitiesClimate Centres

NDRMA National Disaster RiskManagement Agencies

NHMS National Hydro Meteorological Services

AUC DREA AUC DREA AUC DREA

DSAPSD


AUC

46

overall impact, its distribution in space and across sectors; they constitute an essential guidance to set up effective emergency plans that include citizen participation. The challenge resides in properly selecting, sharing and presenting the results of the studies to ensure their use in decision making and in the context of preparedness and response.

2. Monitoring and forecasting is a critical asset for the implementation of EWS. Without forecasting and monitoring capabilities, it is impossible to trigger timely actions to prevent or mitigate impacts of the forecasted event, as well as it would be impossible to manage emergency response. Associated tools require high levels of investments, including in monitoring stations. The overall investment needs to be assessed accurately and jointly with the GFCS investments at the AUC and REC level. It would be preferable to invest in new open and sustainable solutions, professionally tested in an operational environment and compliant with the envisaged international standards.

3. Dissemination and communication is essential for an effective EWS. This is intended as internal to the institutional system and external to the civil society organisation who are an active part of the system in the prevention, preparedness and response phase. Technology is helpful in this case, but most important is the standardization of the messages in relation to the actions which they need to trigger.

4. In this respect the preparedness and response phases are the core of the EWS. Here, the link between the expected scenarios, the warnings and the actions to be taken in the field is clearly established and normed through the emergency plans preparation. The expression “Emergency Plans” (EP) here refers to plans to be established institutionally at different levels that address the information to be produced, to the way and timeliness for its exchange and to the actions tied to each communication. Exercises and drills are seen as an integral part of the EP implementation.

The above pillars need to be addressed in terms of their legal and institutional basis, as well as receive a constant and attentive capacity development able to target each component.

Strategic importance is to be placed in the capacity development of organizations and their personnel. This is considered crucial for the ownership and the long-term sustainability of the results. A capacity building component will be directed to provide the necessary competences to the institutional actors participating in the four pillars described above. This will be addressed with dedicated workshops, exchanges of experts (North-South and South-South) and on-the-job training of the staff involved in operation rooms. A mechanism for the exchange of personnel in a working environment will be established so that staff from the national, regional and continental level can rotate to work side by side in operations, enabling the development of a common culture and an environment enhancing cooperating.

This however is not deemed to be sufficient to support the program in the long term. Appropriate curricula need to be produced in Africa to feed into the system in the near future at different levels: operations, actionable research, assistance. It is therefore strategic to establish


AUC

47

a connection with existing leading academic bodies already involved in education in the DRR context and tailor courses at different levels so that they can transfer the necessary knowledge to maintain and help evolve the system that will be put in place.

The envisaged system is articulated on different levels, from continental to regional and national to local, and should receive coordinated support by different stakeholders that have developed consolidated experience and capacity in Africa in the DRM context such as the different UN Agencies, the International Organizations and governments outside the African Union.

Important partnerships need to be facilitated in order to enhance South-South and North-South cooperation.

5.3 Road mapBased on the considerations above, a road map has been designed in consultation with key stakeholders and the beneficiary partners that are envisaged to shape and operate the system. The road map is composed of six activities described below and its implementation is facilitated and supported by the open source technology myDEWETRA. How myDEWETRA will support the Road Map is described in the concluding paragraph of this session. The Road Map is envisaged to be implemented over a mid-term time horizon and to be based on the proposed activities.

Beneficiaries Partners

1. African Union Commission

2. ACMAD

3. 5 Regional Economic Communities: EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, IGAD, SADC

4. Member States: TBD in accordance with AUC and the RECs


AUC

48

Activity Activity Description Activity Outcomes

Activity 0 – Coordination and Management

This activity encompasses the administrative and financial management, as well the project quality assurance. Efficient management procedures and managerial bodies will be established to ensure the success of the project as a whole. Other objectives of this activity relate to the monitoring of the overall project progress and the quality of the results, the coordination of work and information flow between activities, as well as the organization of the kick-off meeting and periodical internal meetings.

EXPECTED RESULT

Financial Management and Reporting, Project Management and Internal Reporting

INDICATORS

Meetings and reports are timely compiled and available

KEY DELIVERABLES

Financial Reports, Project Management Reports

Activity 1 - Natural Hazard Early Warning and Preparedness Baseline Financing Mechanism - Including Legal Framework and Institutional Assessment

The aim of this activity is to build a baseline for the project that focuses on the current setup of AUC and the key regional and national actors in respect to natural hazard early warning and preparedness. The activity will analyse both the legal and the institutional aspects, identifying current roles and responsibilities as determined by the law and the by-laws or by common practice. It will identify strengths and gaps that will be the focus of the road map itself. The analysis will also lead to the identification of possible financial sustainability mechanisms for the overall system.

EXPECTED RESULT

Identification of strengths and weaknesses in the present continental and regional EWS

INDICATORS

Establishment of a natural hazard early warning and preparedness baseline

KEY DELIVERABLES

Natural hazard early warning and preparedness baseline report, community of practice to ensure legal and institutional arrangements and the involvement of the key stakeholders at the continental and regional level (network established), financial mechanism identified.

Activity 2 – Continental Coordination Function

The baseline established in activity 1 is an essential step in designing the coordination function inside AUC and in relation to the RECs and the MS. This coordination function will be assisted by the technical operation room that will be implemented during other activities within the project. The coordination function will include an internal reorganization in AUC of the already existing resources that already have a role in the EWS against natural hazards, as well as the establishment of roles, responsibilities, resources and functions between AUC, REC-RCCs, MS and the international partners. The coordination role includes a coordination mechanism for improving the exchange of information among continental, regional and national authorities and the development of a harmonized system for warnings at the continental level for informing decision makers and international communities on ongoing and up-coming hazards.

EXPECTED RESULT

Key roles, actions and resources determined at the continental level

INDICATORS

Implementation plan for the identified coordination mechanism

KEY DELIVERABLES

AUC coordination policy designed and related financing mechanism identified on the basis of the analysis in Activity 1


AUC

49

Activity 3 – Set up of the continental operation room

The aim is to create a physical operation room (the African coordination centre) in support of a situation room (the Africa situation room) that will be responsible for the decisions on possible actions from the continental to the national level.

AUC will be equipped with a 24/7 situation room to facilitate exchange, monitoring and analysis of DRR data and information through an open source platform similar to the My Dewetra platform*, developed by the Italian Civil Protection and the CIMA Research Foundation and endorsed by WMO and African stakeholders. This activity will also design a system of interrelated operation rooms: the African Situation Room, the African Coordination Centre, the Regional Situation rooms connected to the African Coordination Centre. ToRs for equipment, software and personnel recruitment will be developed. This will be supported by targeted missions in the AUC and the RECs by international and local experts that will closely follow the operation room setup. Equipment will be procured and deployed and the connections between the continental level (AUC & ACMAD), the regional situation rooms (IGAD/ICPAC, SADC-CSC and others) and national focal points (Disaster Management Agencies) will be established.

*MyDewetra was officially requested by the African Union Commission through a letter from the Chair of the African Union, sent to the Italian Prime Minister.

EXPECTED RESULT

The physical room is activated, and the communication mechanism is active

INDICATORS

Continental Operation Room and related system established

KEY DELIVERABLES

The African Situation Room, the African Coordination Centre, the Regional Situation Rooms are established and connected, and the relevant staff trained.

Activity 4 – Continental overview of risk

Risk profiles have been developed for at least 24 countries in Africa following a similar methodology (Probabilistic Risk Profiles). They hold key information for the management of disasters, as they identify hotspots and scenarios that can be linked to unfolding events in order to determine the possible upcoming impacts. This activity intends to keep on developing and updating such risk profiles and use them for two main purposes:

● To develop a continental risk atlas that can be used to guide continental strategies in relation to natural hazards informing also the financial mechanism at continental level;

● To link the topical scenarios identified by the profiles with actions on the field during upcoming events or during events already unfolding.

EXPECTED RESULT

Mechanism for risk profiles development and update established in all African countries. Methodology for their use designed and established.

INDICATORS

Number of profiles developed/updated/used

KEY DELIVERABLES

Overview of risk document / African Risk report


AUC

50

Activity 5 – Monitoring and forecasting capability enhancement

The aim is to further develop the relevant institutions’ capacities for the monitoring and forecasting of natural hazards and their impacts with a special focus on displaced populations. Specifically, capacity development activities will target continental, regional and national organizations to envisage the development of new operational tools for monitoring and forecasting of extreme hazard events (mainly flood, storms, wildfires and droughts) in Africa. This will be done in partnership with continental and regional centres (ACMAD and RECs). The operational tools will be operated by trained staff and used for the daily operation of the Emergency Coordination Platform.

Strengthening impact-based flood monitoring and forecasting capabilities is a key objective of this activity and this will be achieved by implementing a probabilistic hydrological forecasting system and flash flood forecasting system at the regional scale where deemed relevant. Through intensive training courses, capacity will be developed in the RECs for the implementation and maintenance of the system. Selected staff from RCCs will be hosted in internationally recognised operational centres and will collaborate on the implementation of the regional operational hydrometeorological model that will be used for the bulletin production.

A similar activity will be developed for the forest fire forecasting system.

EXPECTED RESULT

Models for forecast and monitoring implemented and tested on historical events

INDICATORS

Model runs available daily to the operation room.

KEY DELIVERABLES

Monitoring and forecasting data and models accessible for staff members of the Operation room. SOPs for hazards monitoring, forecasting and scenarios development, including assessment of potential impacts.

Activity 6 – Dissemination and communication

SoPs will be agreed by all relevant stakeholders for the production and dissemination of targeted information to institutions and populations, including through the setup of IT applications for weather-related impact bulletins. Assistance to operators will be given to ensure that they are properly trained in the bulletin production and the use of IT systems in support of such an activity. Awareness campaigns will also be designed and implemented so that the bulletins can be received by the institutions and the population in an effective way. For the dissemination for the bulletins and warning messages, specific focus will be given to broadcast tools on smart mobile devices.

EXPECTED RESULT

SoPs are established and used with the support of IT platforms

INDICATORS

Bulletins are produced and disseminated on a regular basis

KEY DELIVERABLES

SoPs for dissemination and communication are established, public awareness campaigns are designed (in cooperation with AUC, RECs and MS), media Training, AFRICA-Alert


AUC

51

Activity 7 – Linking warnings to actions

Standard Operating Procedure for the African Situation Room, Coordination Centre and Regional rooms will be developed and tested. The SoPs will determine actions flowing from the continental to the regional and national level, in case of dangerous events approaching and unfolding. SoPs will be agreed upon by the AUC and all key actors in the system with the support of international experts, and formalized in a technical document endorsed at the ministerial level by Hydro-Met and DRR-DRM authorities.

EXPECTED RESULT

The SoPs for the situation room and the coordination centre are developed and applied regularly

INDICATORS

SoPs developed

KEY DELIVERABLES

SoPs linked with the institutional actions and procedures across levels, links to the National emergency plans established

Activity 8 – Capacity building and development

Capacity development is considered crucial for the long-term sustainability of the outputs/results. A capacity building component will be directed to provide the necessary competences to the institutional actors participating in the project. This will be addressed with dedicated workshops, exchanges of experts (North-South and South-South) and on-the-job training of the staff involved in the operation room. A mechanism for the exchange of personnel in a working environment will be established so that staff from the national, regional and continental levels will rotate to work in the operation rooms.

The AUC training centre will be set-up in support of the dedicated capacity building component linked to the operation room. The AUC Training centre education program will be designed. The education program will encompass formations on bulletin preparation, the coordination room procedures and SoPs, as well as the situation awareness preparation. The program will take advantage of already existing initiatives and meetings such as the Regional Climate Outlook Forums. Training of Trainers (ToT) for the AUC training centre to AUC and RECs staff that will become the reference training people. Training material will be prepared connected to the ToT as well as the preparation of courses and course delivery.

This, however, is not deemed to be sufficient to support the program in the long term. Appropriate curricula need to be produced in Africa to feed into the system in the near future at different levels: operations, actionable research, assistance. It is therefore strategic to establish a connection with existing leading academic bodies already involved in education in DRR and tailor courses at different levels so that they can transfer the necessary knowledge to maintain and help evolve the system that will be put in place.

EXPECTED RESULT

Capacity building in EWS at the continental level is established to support the system of operation rooms created and to ultimately reduce risk deriving from natural hazards on the African continent.

INDICATORS

AUC Training centre established; Training programs established and delivered; Academic specialized Curricula developed with the African academic network.

KEY DELIVERABLES

AUC Training centre; AUC Training programs; Academic specialized curricula developed with the African academic network.


AUC

52

5.4 The Open-source technological platform myDEWETRA in support of the implementation of the road map

Figure 4. Information flow across levels as it could be structured with the Dewetra system.

Within the described EWS context, the sharing of information is a key component. Information and communications technology (ICT) is an important factor in facilitating this information flux. A flexible solution adopted by the Italian Civil Protection Department is proposed as a model of data information sharing and added value information production.

DEWETRA is a fully operational open source Web platform used by the Italian Civil Protection Department and designed by CIMA Research Foundation to support operational activities at the national or international scale. The system consists of a web-GIS platform aimed towards multi-risk mapping, forecasting and monitoring. Using the tools of the platform, it is possible to access and combine data on exposure, vulnerability and hazards together with forecasts and observation data—in either a temporal or spatial way—and to build real-time scenarios of risk and damage7. The use of the platform is also envisaged for planning purposes.

myDEWETRA is used in several countries. Some of these countries—such as Lebanon, Paraguay, Bolivia, Albania, Serbia and the Caribbean through CIMH—have adopted DEWETRA as the official platform for their risk information sharing during events.8 Other exploratory installations have been set up in Ecuador, China, the Philippines among others.

7 Italian Civil Protection Department, CIMA Research Foundation (2014) The Dewetra Platform: A Multi-perspective Archi-tecture for Risk Management during Emergencies. Springer, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11818-5_158 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)


AUC

53

Figure 4 introduces the information flow across levels in case an ICT system like myDEWETRA is adopted as a model for the implementation of information sharing. The platform separates the application server that can be managed and customised at the national, regional or continental level and the distributed data node, which contains the data to be shared. The distributed data node can distribute the information in the different application servers with custom publishing rules based on the application demands. This way, the client interface can be customised for the national level (capturing the procedures identified in the national legal implant), the regional level (providing the ideal environment for the scientific advancement of the regional tools) and at the continental level (supporting the monitoring functionalities and the coordination across states). The DDS guarantees that the data reside where they are produced and in the institution that holds their responsibility, while allowing for a controlled data interchange with the different server applications so that relevant information can be safely exchanged among actors.

The system allows for an effective multichannel communication with the institutions as well as the citizens that need to be informed about the event.

Expected Impacts

• Ownership of the mechanism and sustainability in the midterm including maintenance services and capability

• Improvement of the technical knowledge of future generations so that the system will be maintained and improved

• Creation of work opportunities connected to the overall established cycle including training, communication, HW and SW maintenance and enhancement

• Mitigation of disasters and enhancement of connected benefits such as reduction of IDPs, migration, and conflict outbreak

• Enhanced integration of local knowledge and as such increased trust in the Civil Protection Mechanism as a whole


AUC

54

6. Conclusion

6.1 Common Gaps of Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania and Zambia

The baseline analysis of Early Warning Systems in Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania and Zambia revealed commonalities in the challenges the countries have had to face in order to reach the reference level.

All countries have established DRM policies and well identified key roles and responsibilities for institutions. Basic hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity information is available for the whole country, but more quantitative assessments were not often available The main gaps in the Disaster Risk Knowledge component are related to the (i) incorporation of risk information in EWS, and the (ii) consolidation of risk information. The quantitative disaster risk profiles completed in 2019 jointly by the national disaster risk management authorities, UNDRR and the CIMA Research Foundation, and endorsed by the Countries - Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania and Zambia- contribute to the improvement of disaster risk knowledge, providing a uniform understanding of risk in all its components at the national level. While local flood risk assessment and mapping is necessary to inform local emergency plans, the risk profile is a robust base to build on. In fact, the identification of safe shelters, evacuation routes, and contingency measures are often not developed based on risk maps. Moreover, there is a general lack of standardized repositories for storing hazard, exposure and vulnerability data in GIS format, with uniform data quality and open availability to key institutions.

In monitoring and forecasting, the countries have established meteorological agencies responsible for issuing bulletins, but these are not triggering preparedness and response actions through a responsibility chain. The main areas to refine for this component are related to (i) the low density of automated weather stations for early detection of meteorological hazards, (ii) the limited capacity of hydrometeorological real-time forecasting due to insufficient personnel, hardware and software systems. Most weather stations require on site data collection and have a low spatial coverage to be used for forecasting. Moreover, monitoring centres are not operational at all times and warnings are not generated and disseminated in a timely manner.

In all of the countries analysed, functions of the Warning Dissemination and Communication component are enforced by legislations and agreements are commonly established with the private sector to disseminate the warnings (TV, radio, social media). The main common gaps in this component relate to (i) the redundancy and resilience of communication equipment and (ii) impact-based warnings. In fact, back-up systems are often not available, updates of hardware and equipment are slowed down by the constant necessity of investments and the resilience of communication systems is not evaluated, especially for fast-developing hazards. Most importantly, warning messages are frequently inadequate to trigger appropriate reactions in the population and are not tailored to address specific needs of sectors or vulnerable groups.

The main common gap in the countries analysed for the Preparedness and Response component is the absence of preparedness plans available for the entire country. Although


55

risks are known, only contingency plans that are activated after the occurrence of a hazard event are fully developed. This implies that SoPs are in place only to face an emergency instead of anticipating one. A difference exists in this context in terms of hazards. In fact, for slow onset hazards, specifically droughts, contingency plans might be effective for mitigating the impacts, but for fast developing hazards such as floods, a clear link between timely forecasting and preparedness plans should exist.

6.2 Common Priorities of Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania and Zambia

Given the common challenges described in the previous section the following common priorities are recommended to the countries in order to reach the reference levels for their national EWS:

1) Risk knowledge consolidation and integration with EWS: this action includes (i) the organization of existing risk information into a single national database that can serve as a risk information clearing house and can be used by multiple stakeholders for informed decision making in the entire disaster risk management cycle; (ii) the mainstreaming of existing risk knowledge at national and sub-national level for organizations, economic sectors, individuals; (iii) the development of new risk knowledge at the local scale for full integration with EWS.

2) Improvement of monitoring and forecasting system: this action includes (i) strengthening real-time monitoring systems for both meteorological and hydrological data by atomizing existing stations and installation of new automated stations and real-time transmission of monitored data; (ii) the integration of existing global and regional datasets, real-time monitoring stations and remote sensing datasets (EO); (iii) improving systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions by using web-GIS platforms; (iv) the development of operational hydrological modelling for flood and flash flood forecasting systems and impact based forecasts.

3) Improvement of communication and dissemination systems: this action includes (i) development of capacities for impact based early warnings; (ii) increase in the resilience of communication equipment; (iii) development of a uniform integrated communications system for targeted alerts based on clear messages and receiver feedbacks; (iv) adoption of multiple channels of communication, including national, local and indigenous platforms; (v) development of a web-based portal for risk communication with warnings and education material.

4) Development of preparedness plans: this action includes (i) writing of context-specific scenario-based preparedness and response plans from the national to the local level that should encompass the phases before, during and after a disaster, and include a perspective of prevention to recovery and rehabilitation, (ii) raising of awareness by incorporating DRM within school curricula from the early stage, (iii) incorporation of lessons learnt after each event during the revision of plans; (iv) conducting of regular tests on preparedness plans and population awareness.


56

6.3 The Potential of a Supranational Mechanism

Due to their flexibility and relative low implementation cost, soft risk reduction measures represent one of the most effective methods of climate adaptation and should always be combined with effective structural mitigation measures. Establishing an Early Warning System (EWS) that is able to trigger appropriate and timely action in the field is not only a technological effort, but touches upon the modification of the legal context, the institutional organization and the culture of risk itself across the different layers of society and organisations. As such, all these elements cannot be developed in silos, but should be addressed in a consistent and coordinated framework.

In this context, the implementation of a continental coordination function centred in the AUC appears pivotal. A strong coordination can only be reached if AUC consolidates its relationship with the regional and national actors to form a strong and coordinated system able to prevent, prepare and respond to the disasters that might be caused by the different natural hazards affecting the African continent. The consolidation should build on a consistent legal and institutional framework that identifies roles and responsibilities in order to, on one hand empower the involved institutions, and on the other hands make them accountable for their actions. The ultimate objective of this continental coordination would be the enhanced access to early warning information on natural hazards, and the improvement of disaster preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery in Africa.

The supranational level within the context of EWS can potentially be considered on two levels - the regional and the continental. In the case of the regional level, the climate centres affiliated to RECs are a nodal point. The African Union Commission with the support of ACMAD are the key nodes at the continental level.

As detailed in the analysis, the key functions needed for the establishment of a coordination room in AUC are already present within AUC Departments. However, such functionalities have been developed within diverse contexts to address separate issues and should be united under the umbrella of a clear supra-state mechanism.

The final objectives are: 1) to establish a continental situation room able to gather timely information about happenings on the ground so that an informative and consolidated situation awareness report can be prepared to support decisions from the AUC High Levels; 2) to provide information on how the situation might evolve in the near future with the help of national and regional climate centres; to enable a timely redistribution of situation awareness report as well as of the decision made by the HL bodies of AUC that might affect the MS.

The establishment of such a mechanism is not a linear undertaking and can be reached by developing a series of actions that constitute an ideal coordinated map between AUC, RECs and MS. The list of actions is listed here:

• Preparation of a Natural hazard early warning and preparedness baseline that includes a


57


Legal Framework and Institutional assessment

• With reference to the baseline, the design of the continental coordination function including roles, responsibilities and procedures

• The design and creation of an equipped and staffed continental operation room

• The development of a continental overview of risk, so that possible scenarios of risk can be analysed before they occur, and possible countermeasures can be facilitated by the coordination function in AUC;

• The enhancement of the monitoring and forecasting capability of the system by reinforcing the RECs and MS systems under the coordination of the AUC;

• The establishment of a dissemination system for decisions and warnings throughout the whole system.

• The development and implementation of an awareness campaign

• The establishment of SoPs that link warnings to actions; the SoPs will determine actions flowing from the continental to the regional and the national level in case of dangerous events approaching and unfolding;

• Capacity building for the staff of the operation room and the creation of the AUC training centre to ensure sustainability. The capacity building will also be implemented by ensuring that proper academic curricula are the support of networks of involved academic institutions and research centres.

• As the system is being developed, a proper financing mechanism will be identified to support the infrastructure created.

References

IFRC, 2012. Community early warning systems: guiding principles. Available at: http://www.ifrc.org/PageFiles/103323/1227800-IFRC-CEWS-Guiding-Principles-EN.pdf WMO, 2018. Multi-hazard Early warning systems: a checklist. Available at: https://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=20228#.Wri4cI4zMt8 WMO, 2015. Guidelines on multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services. Available at http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1150_en.pdf Italian Civil Protection Department, CIMA Research Foundation, 2014. The Dewetra Platform: A Multi-perspective Architecture for Risk Management during Emergencies. Springer, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11818-5_15

http://www.ifrc.org/PageFiles/103323/1227800-IFRC-CEWS-Guiding-Principles-EN.pdf

http://www.ifrc.org/PageFiles/103323/1227800-IFRC-CEWS-Guiding-Principles-EN.pdf

https://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=20228#.Wri4cI4zMt8

https://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=20228#.Wri4cI4zMt8

http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1150_en.pdf

w w w. p r e v e n t i o n w e b . n e t / r e s i l i e n t - a f r i c a

w w w. u n d r r . o r g

RISK PROFILES ARE AVAILABLE AT:

r i s k p r o f i l e s u n d r r . o r g

This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union.The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of CIMA Research Foundation

and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.

road map for improving the availability, access and use of

Documents