risk summary report 2015

8/20/2019 Risk Summary Report 2015

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Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment 1 SouthWRAP Summary Report


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Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment SouthWRAP Summary Report


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Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment 0 SouthWRAP Summary Report


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IntroductionWelcome to the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment Summary

Report.

This tool allos users of the Professional 4ieer application of the

Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment 5SWRA6 eb Portal 5SouthWRAP6

to define a specific pro7ect area and summari2e ildfire related

information for this area. A detailed risk summary report is

-enerated usin- a set of predefined map products de)eloped by the

Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment pro7ect hich ha)e been

summari2ed e$plicitly for the user defined pro7ect area. The report is

-enerated in 8S W*R format.

The report has been desi-ned so that information from the report

can easily be copied and pasted into other specific plans9 reports9 or

documents dependin- on user needs. /$amples include9 but are notlimited to9 Community Wildfire Protection Plans9 ,ocal +ire Plans9

+uels 8iti-ation Plans9 :a2ard 8iti-ation Plans9 :omeoner

Association Risk Assessments9 and +orest 8ana-ement or

Steardship Plans. +ormats and standards for these types of

reports )ary from state to state across the South9 and accordin-ly

SouthWRAP pro)ides the SWRA information in a -eneric risk report

format to facilitate use in any type of e$ternal document. The

SouthWRAP Risk Summary Report also stands alone as a )iable

depiction of current ildfire risk conditions for the user definedpro7ect area.

SouthWRAP pro)ides a consistent9 comparable set of scientific

results to be used as a foundation for ildfire miti-ation and

pre)ention plannin- in the South.

Results of the assessment can be used to help prioriti2e areas in the

state here miti-ation treatments9 community interaction andeducation9 or tactical analyses mi-ht be necessary to reduce risk

from ildfires.

Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment SouthWRAP Summary Report


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The SouthWRAP products included in this report are desi-ned to

pro)ide the information needed to support the folloin- key

priorities;

Identify areas that are most prone to ildfire

Identify areas that may re


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Products/ach product in this report is accompanied by a -eneral description9 table9 chart and>or map. A list of a)ailable SouthWRAP products in this

report is pro)ided in the folloin- table.

SouthWRAP Product Description

Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) epicts here humans and their structures meet or intermi$ ith ildland fuel

WUI Risk Index Represents a ratin- of the potential impact of a ildfire on people and their homes

Counit! Protection "ones Represents those areas desi-nated as primary and secondary priorities for community protection plannin-

#urn Probabilit!Probability of an area burnin- -i)en current landscape conditions9 percentile eather9 historical i-nition patterns and

historical fire pre)ention and suppression efforts

Wildfire I$nition Densit! ,ikelihood of a ildfire startin- based on historical i-nition patterns

Characteristic Rate of Spread Represents the speed ith hich a fire mo)es in a hori2ontal direction across the landscape

Characteristic %lae &en$th Represents the distance beteen the tip and base of the flame

%ire intensit! Scale ?uantifies the potential fire intensity for an area by orders of ma-nitude

%ire T!pe ' xtree Represents the potential fire type 5surface or canopy6 under e$treme percentile eather conditions

Surface %uels Contains the parameters needed to compute surface fire beha)ior characteristics

Doer *perabilit! Ratin$ ,e)el of difficulty to operate a do2er in an area based on limitations associated ith slope and )e-etation type


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Wildland Urban Interfaceescription

The South is one of the fastest -roin- re-ions in the nation9 ith

an estimated population -roth of 1. million people per year. The

South also consistently has the hi-hest number of ildfires per year.

Population -roth is pushin- housin- de)elopments further into

natural and forested areas here most of these ildfires occur. This

situation puts many li)es and communities at risk each year.

In particular9 the e$pansion of residential de)elopment from urban

centers out into rural landscapes9 increases the potential for

ildland fire threat to public safety and the potential for dama-e to

forest resources and dependent industries. This increase in

population across the re-ion ill impact counties and communities

that are located ithin the Wildland "rban Interface 5W"I6. The

W"I is described as the area here structures and other human

impro)ements meet and intermin-le ith unde)eloped ildland or

)e-etati)e fuels. Population -roth ithin the W"I substantially

increases the risk from ildfire.

+or the Sulli+ans Island pro7ect area9 it is estimated that ,-./0

people or 01 percent of the total pro7ect area population 539@0%6 li)e

ithin the W"I.

The Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) la!er reflects housin$ densit!

depictin$ 2here huans and their structures eet or interix2ith 2ildland fuels3

W"I housin- density is cate-ori2ed based on the standard +ederal

Re-ister and ".S. +orest Ser)ice SI,4IS data set cate-ories9 lon-

considered a de facto standard for depictin- W"I. :oe)er9 in the

SWRA W"I data the number of housin- density cate-ories is

e$tended to pro)ide a better -radation of housin- distribution to

meet specific re


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In the past9 con)entional ildland urban interface data sets9 such as

"S+S SI,4IS9 ha)e been used to reflect these concerns. :oe)er9

"S+S SI,4IS and other e$istin- data sources do not pro)ide the le)el

of detail for definin- population li)in- in the ildland as needed by

Southern state W"I specialists and local fire protection a-encies.

The ne SWRA W"I %@1% dataset is deri)ed usin- ad)anced

modelin- techni0@ac @ @.@ # 3.!

1hs>0@ac to 1hs>%@ac @ @.@ 33 %.1

1hs>%@ac to 1hs>1@ac @ @.@ #3 .3

1hs>1@ac to 1hs>ac @ @.@ 11= !.0

1hs>ac to 1hs>%ac 0% 1. %0% 1.

1hs>%ac to 3hs>1ac %9(0 (%.@ ((( =0.@

BT 3hs>1ac 1#3 =. 3@ %.@

Total ,-./0 /55356 /-78, /55356


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WUI Risk Indexescription

The Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) Risk Index la!er is a ratin$ of

the potential ipact of a 2ildfire on people and their hoes . The

key input9 W"I9 reflects housin- density 5houses per acre6 consistent

ith +ederal Re-ister ational standards. The location of people

li)in- in the Wildland "rban Interface and rural areas is key

information for definin- potential ildfire impacts to people and

homes.

The W"I Risk Ratin- is deri)ed usin- a Response +unction modelin-

approach. Response functions are a method of assi-nin- a net

chan-e in the )alue to a resource or asset based on susceptibility to

fire at different intensity le)els9 such as flame len-th. The ran-e of)alues is from 1 to (9 ith 1 representin- the least ne-ati)e

impact and ( representin- the most ne-ati)e impact. +or e$ample9

areas ith hi-h housin- density and hi-h flame len-ths are rated (

hile areas ith lo housin- density and lo flame len-ths are

rated 1.

To calculate the W"I Risk Ratin-9 the W"I housin- density data as

combined ith +lame ,en-th data and response functions ere

defined to represent potential impacts. The response functions

ere defined by a team of e$perts based on )alues defined by the

SWRA "pdate Pro7ect technical team. 'y combinin- flame len-th

ith the W"I housin- density data9 you can determine here the

-reatest potential impact to homes and people is likely to occur.

Class Acres Percent

( 8a7or Impacts 1 1.@

# 313 %1.

! %=0 1#.%

= =3 0.3

8oderate !%# @.1

0 0! 3.%

3 11 @.#

% 1@ @.!

1 8inor Impacts 1 @.1

Total /-971 /55356

+ire intensity data is modeled to incorporate penetration into urban

frin-e areas so that outputs better reflect real orld conditions for

fire spread and impact in frin-e urban interface areas. With this

enhancement9 houses in urban areas ad7acent to ildland fuels are

incorporated into the W"I risk modelin-. All areas in the South ha)e

the W"I Risk Inde$ calculated consistently9 hich allos for

comparison and ordination of areas across the entire re-ion. ata is

modeled at a 3@meter cell resolution9 hich is consistent ithother SWRA layers.


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Counit! Protection "onesescription

Class Acres Percent

Primary 190 0#.(

Secondary 19%3 1.1

Total ,-0:: /55356

Counit! Protection "ones (CP") represent those areas considered hi$hest priorit! for iti$ation plannin$ acti+ities3 CP&s are based on an

analysis of the Where People ,i)e housin- density data and surroundin- fire beha)ior potential. Rate of Spread data is used to determine the

areas of concern around populated areas that are ithin a %hour fire spread distance. This is referred to as the Secondary CP&.

Beneral consensus amon- fire planners is that for fuel miti-ation treatments to be effecti)e in reducin- ildfire ha2ard9 they must be conducted

ithin a close distance of a community. In the South9 the W"I housin- density has been used to reflect populated areas in place of community

boundaries 5Primary CP&6. This ensures that CP&s reflect here people are li)in- in the ildland9 not 7urisdictional boundaries.

Secondary CP&s represent a )ariable idth buffer around populated areas that are ithin a %hour fire spread distance. Accordin-ly9 CP&s ill

e$tend farther in areas here rates of spread are -reater and less in areas here minimal rate of spread potential e$ists. Secondary CP&

boundaries inherently incorporate fire beha)ior conditions.

Primary CP&s reflect areas ith a predefined housin- density9 such as -reater than 1 house per %@ acres. Secondary CP&s are the areas around

Primary CP&s ithin a % hour fire spread distance.

All areas in the South ha)e the CP&s calculated consistently9 hich allos for comparison and ordination of areas across the entire re-ion. ata is

modeled at a 3@meter cell resolution9 hich is consistent ith other SWRA layers.


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#urn Probabilit!escription

The #urn Probabilit! (#P) la!er depicts the probabilit! of an area

burnin$ $i+en current landscape conditions- percentile 2eather-

historical i$nition patterns and historical fire pre+ention and

suppression efforts3

escribe in more detail9 it is the tendency of any -i)en pi$el to burn9

-i)en the static landscape conditions depicted by the ,A+IR/

Refresh %@@# dataset 5as resampled by +PA69 contemporary eather

and i-nition patterns9 as ell as contemporary fire mana-ement

policies 5entailin- considerable fire pre)ention and suppression

efforts6.

The 'P data does not9 and is not intended to9 depict firereturn

inter)als of any )inta-e9 nor do they indicate likely fire footprints or

routes of tra)el. othin- about the e$pected shape or si2e of any

actual fire incident can be interpreted from the burn probabilities.

Instead9 the 'P data9 in con7unction ith the +ire Pro-ram Analysts

+I, layers9 are intended to support an actuarial approach to


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Wildfire #eha+ior *utputsescription

%ire beha+ior is the anner in

2hich a fire reacts to the

follo2in$ en+ironentalinfluences;

1. %uels

%. Weather

3. Topo$raph!

+ire beha)ior characteristics are attributes of ildland fire that

pertain to its spread9 intensity9 and -roth. +ire beha)iorcharacteristics utili2ed in the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment

5SWRA6 include fire type9 rate of spread9 flame len-th and fire

intensity scale. These metrics are used to determine the potential

fire beha)ior under different eather scenarios. Areas that e$hibit

moderate to hi-h fire beha)ior potential can be identified for

miti-ation treatments9 especially if these areas are in close

pro$imity to homes9 business9 or other assets.

%uels

The SWRA includes composition and characteristics for both surface

fuels and canopy fuels. Si-nificant increases in fire beha)ior ill be

captured if the fire has the potential to transition from a surface fire

to a canopy fire.

+uel datasets re


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trees9 not of an indi)idual tree. Canopy bulk density is used

to predict hether an acti)e cron fire is possible.

Weather

/n)ironmental eather parameters needed to compute fire

beha)ior characteristics include 1hour9 1@hour9 and 1@@hour

timela- fuel moistures9 herbaceous fuel moisture9 oody fuel

moisture9 and the %@foot 1@ minute a)era-e ind speed. To collect

this information9 eather influence 2ones ere established across

the re-ion. A eather influence 2one is an area here for analysis

purposes the eather on any -i)en day is considered uniform.

Within each eather influence 2one9 historical daily eather is

-athered to compile a eather dataset from hich four percentile

eather cate-ories are created. The percentile eather cate-ories

are intended to represent lo9 moderate9 hi-h9 and e$treme fire

eather days. +ire beha)ior outputs are computed for each

percentile eather cate-ory to determine fire potential under

different eather scenarios.

The four percentile eather cate-ories include;

,o Weather Percentile 5@ E 16

8oderate Weather Percentile 51= E (@6

:i-h Weather Percentile 5(1 E (!6

/$treme Weather Percentile 5(# E 1@@6

Topo$raph!

Topo-raphy datasets re xtree


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Characteristic Rate of SpreadCharacteristic Rate of Spread is the t!pical or representati+e rate of

spread of a potential fire based on a 2ei$hted a+era$e of four

percentile 2eather cate$ories. Rate of spread is the speed ithhich a fire mo)es in a hori2ontal direction across the landscape9

usually e$pressed in chains per hour 5ch>hr6 or feet per minute

5ft>min6. +or purposes of the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment9

this measurement represents the ma$imum rate of spread of the

fire front. Rate of Spread is the metric used to deri)e the

Community Protection &ones.

Rate of Spread Acres Percent

on'urnable =9%!# !3.@

@ 5ch>hr6 !! @.(

1@ 5ch>hr6 10 1.!

1@ E 1 5ch>hr6 1@ 1.%

1 %@ 5ch>hr6 1@@ 1.%

%@ 3@ 5ch>hr6 1! %.@

3@ @ 5ch>hr6 30 =.%

@ 1@ 5ch>hr6 191#% 13.#

1@ F 5ch>hr6 @ @.@

Total .-707 /55356

Rate of spread is a fire beha)ior output9 hich is influenced by three

en)ironmental factors fuels9 eather9 and topo-raphy. Weather is

by far the most dynamic )ariable as it chan-es fre


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Characteristic %lae &en$thCharacteristic %lae &en$th is the t!pical or representati+e flae

len$th of a potential fire based on a 2ei$hted a+era$e of four

percentile 2eather cate$ories. +lame ,en-th is defined as the

distance beteen the flame tip and the midpoint of the flame depth

at the base of the flame9 hich is -enerally the -round surface. It is

an indicator of fire intensity and is often used to estimate ho much

heat the fire is -eneratin-. +lame len-th is typically measured in

feet 5ft6. +lame len-th is the measure of fire intensity used to

-enerate the response inde$ outputs for the SWRA.

%lae &en$th Acres Percent

on'urnable =9%!# !3.@

@ % ft 10( 1.!

% 0 ft %3% %.!

0 # ft =#! #.@

# 1% ft 19%0@ 10.0

1% %@ ft ( @.1

%@ 3@ ft @ @.@

3@ F ft @ @.@

Total .-707 /55356+lame len-th is a fire beha)ior output9 hich is influenced by three

en)ironmental factors fuels9 eather9 and topo-raphy. Weather is

by far the most dynamic )ariable as it chan-es fre


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Characteristic %ire Intensit! Scaleescription

Characteristic %ire Intensit! Scale (%IS) specificall! identifies areas

2here si$nificant fuel haards and associated dan$erous fire

beha+ior potential exist based on a 2ei$hted a+era$e of four

percentile 2eather cate$ories. Similar to the Richter scale for

earth


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Since all areas in the South ha)e fire intensity scale calculated

consistently9 it allos for comparison and ordination of areas across

the entire re-ion.

+ire intensity scale is a fire beha)ior output9 hich is influenced by

three en)ironmental factors fuels9 eather9 and topo-raphy.

Weather is by far the most dynamic )ariable as it chan-esfre


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Class Acres Percent

on'urnable =91!3 !1.#

1 ,oest Intensity 1( 1.#

1. 3% @.0

% ,o #! 1.@

%. 0 @.

3 8oderate =1% !.1

3. #3 1.@

0 :i-h 190@3 1=.3

0. 1 @.@

:i-hest Intensity @ @.@

Total .-707 /55356


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%ire T!pe > xtree

Surface %ire

A fire that spreads throu-h surface fuel ithout consumin-

any o)erlyin- canopy fuel. Surface fuels include -rass9

timber litter9 shrub>brush9 slash and other dead or li)e)e-etation ithin about = feet of the -round.

Passi+e Canop! %ire

A type of cron fire in hich the crons of indi)idual trees

or small -roups of trees burn9 but solid flamin- in the

canopy cannot be maintained e$cept for short periods

5Scott D Reinhardt9 %@@16.

Acti+e Canop! %ire

A cron fire in hich the entire fuel comple$ 5canopy6 is

in)ol)ed in flame9 but the cronin- phase remains

dependent on heat released from surface fuel for

continued spread 5Scott D Reinhardt9 %@@16.

There are to primary fire types E surface fire and canopy fire. Canopy fire can be further subdi)ided into passi)e canopy fire and acti)e canopy

fire. A short description of each of these is pro)ided belo.


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%ire T!pe Acres Percent

on'urnable =91=1 !1.!

Surface +ire %901 %#.1

Passi)e Canopy 1# @.%

Acti)e Canopy @ @.@

Total .-707 /55356

%ire T!pe ' xtree represents the potential fire t!pe under the extree percentile 2eather cate$or!3 The e$treme percentile eather

cate-ory represents the a)era-e eather based on the top three percent fire eather days in the analysis period. It is not intended to represent

a orst case scenario eather e)ent. Accordin-ly9 the potential fire type is based on fuel conditions9 e$treme percentile eather9 and

topo-raphy.

Canopy fires are )ery dan-erous9 destructi)e and difficult to control due to their increased fire intensity. +rom a plannin- perspecti)e9 it is

important to identify here these conditions are likely to occur on the landscape so that special preparedness measure can be taken if necessary.

The +ire Type E /$treme layer shos the footprint of here these areas are most likely to occur. :oe)er9 it is important to note that canopy

fires are not restricted to these areas. "nder the ri-ht conditions9 it can occur in other canopied areas.

+or all Southern states9 e$cept +lorida and Te$as9 this dataset as deri)ed from updated fuels and canopy data as part of the %@1@ SWRA "pdate

Pro7ect recently completed in 8ay %@10. +or Te$as9 the %@1@ Te$as risk update data is portrayed. +or +lorida9 the %@1@ +lorida risk assessment

update data is shon.

The fire type e$treme map is deri)ed at a 3@meter resolution. This scale of data as chosen to be consistent ith the accuracy of the primary

surface fuels dataset used in the assessment. While not appropriate for site specific analysis9 it is appropriate for re-ional9 county or local

plannin- efforts.


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Surface %uelsescription

Surface fuels- or fire beha+ior fuel odels as the! are technicall!

referred to- contain the paraeters needed b! the Rotherel

(/0:,) surface fire spread odel to copute surface fire beha+iorcharacteristics- such as rate of spread- flae len$th- fireline

intensit!- and other fire beha+ior etrics3 As the name mi-ht

su--est9 surface fuels only account for the surface fire potential.

Canopy fire potential is computed throu-h a separate but linked

process. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment accounts for both

surface and canopy fire potential in the f ire beha)ior outputs.

Surface fuels are typically cate-ori2ed into one of four primary fuel

types based on the primary carrier of the surface fire; 16 -rass9 %6

shrub>brush9 36 timber litter and 06 slash. There are to standard

fire beha)ior fuel model sets published for use. The +ire 'eha)ior

Prediction System 1(#% +uel 8odel Set 5Anderson9 1(#%6 contains

13 fuel models and the +ire 'eha)ior Prediction System %@@ +uel

8odel Set 5Scott D 'ur-an9 %@@6 contains 0@ fuel models.

The SWRA Surface +uels ha)e been updated to use the +'PS %@@

0@ fuel model set from the ,A+IR/ %@1@ products9 supplemented

ith additional enhancements obtained throu-h calibration

orkshops ith the Southern states. +lorida uses +'PS 1(#% fuel

models deri)ed based on spectral classification of ,andsat Thematic

8apper 5T86 satellite ima-ery deri)ed as part of the +lorida +orestSer)ice fuels mappin- and risk assessment pro7ects. Te$as fuels

represent %@1@ updates conducted as part of a stateide fuels and

canopy mappin- effort.

+or the remainin- 11 Southern states9 the recently completed SWRA

"pdate pro7ect produced a ne surface fuels dataset based on %@1@

,A+IR/ products. A detailed fuels calibration process as

undertaken that in)ol)ed collaboration ith Southern state fuels

and fire beha)ior specialists supported by federal partner

in)ol)ement. Workshops ere held to re)ie the ,A+IR/ fuels

product and calibrate the data by modifyin- specific fuels classes to

better reflect local knoled-e and input. A key component of this

calibration task in)ol)ed usin- ima-e processin- technior forb type6

BR@1Brass is short9 patchy9 and possibly hea)ily -ra2ed. Spread rate moderateG flame

len-th lo.=1 @.!

BR@%8oderately coarse continuous -rass9 a)era-e depth about 1 foot. Spread rate hi-hG

flame len-th moderate.% @.@


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Surface %uel Description Acres Percent

BR@34ery coarse -rass9 a)era-e depth about % feet. Spread rate hi-hG flame len-th

moderate.@ @.@

BR@08oderately coarse continuous -rass9 a)era-e depth about % feet. Spread rate )ery

hi-hG flame len-th hi-h.@ @.@

BR@ense9 coarse -rass9 a)era-e depth about 1 to % feet. Spread rate )ery hi-hG flame

len-th hi-h.@ @.@

BR@= ryland -rass about 1 to % feet tall. Spread rate )ery hi-hG flame len-th )ery hi-h. @ @.@

BR@#:ea)y9 coarse9 continuous -rass 3 to feet tall. Spread rate )ery hi-hG flame len-th

)ery hi-h.190%% 1=.

BR@(4ery hea)y9 coarse9 continuous -rass to # feet tall. Spread rate e$tremeG flame

len-th e$treme.@ @.@

@rass>Shrub %uel T!pe ?odels 5mi$ture of -rass and shrub9 up to @ percent shrub co)era-e6

BS@1Shrubs are about 1 foot hi-h9 lo -rass load. Spread rate moderateG flame len-th

lo.33 @.0

BS@%Shrubs are 1 to 3 feet hi-h9 moderate -rass load. Spread rate hi-hG flame len-th

moderate.@ @.@

BS@38oderate -rass>shrub load9 a)era-e -rass>shrub depth less than % feet. Spread rate

hi-hG flame len-th moderate.@ @.@

BS@0:ea)y -rass>shrub load9 depth -reater than % feet. Spread rate hi-hG flame len-th

)ery hi-h.@ @.@

Shrub %uel T!pe ?odels 5Shrubs co)er at least @ percent of the site9 -rass sparse to none$istent6

S:@1,o shrub fuel load9 fuelbed depth about 1 footG some -rass may be present. Spread

rate )ery loG flame len-th )ery lo.@ @.@

S:@%8oderate fuel load 5hi-her than S:@169 depth about 1 foot9 no -rass fuel present.

Spread rate loG flame len-th lo.@ @.@

S:@38oderate shrub load9 possibly ith pine o)erstory or herbaceous fuel9 fuel bed

depth % to 3 feet. Spread rate loG flame len-th lo.@ @.@

S:@0,o to moderate shrub and litter load9 possibly ith pine o)erstory9 fuel bed depth

about 3 feet. Spread rate hi-hG flame len-th moderate.@ @.@

S:@ :ea)y shrub load9 depth 0 to = feet. Spread rate )ery hi-hG flame len-th )ery hi-h. @ @.@

S:@=ense shrubs9 little or no herb fuel9 depth about % feet. Spread rate hi-hG flame

len-th hi-h.%@ @.%

S:@!4ery hea)y shrub load9 depth 0 to = feet. Spread rate loer than S:@9 but flame

len-th similar. Spread rate hi-hG flame len-th )ery hi-h.1 @.@

S:@#ense shrubs9 little or no herb fuel9 depth about 3 feet. Spread rates hi-hG flame

len-th hi-h.@ @.@


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S:@(ense9 finely branched shrubs ith si-nificant fine dead fuel9 about 0 to = feet tallG

some herbaceous fuel may be present. Spread rate hi-h9 flame len-th )ery hi-h.% @.@

Tiber>Understor! %uel T!pe ?odels 5Brass or shrubs mi$ed ith litter from forest canopy6

T"@1+uelbed is lo load of -rass and>or shrub ith litter. Spread rate loG flame len-th

lo.@ @.@

T"@%+uelbed is moderate litter load ith shrub component. Spread rate moderateG flame

len-th lo. @.1

T"@3+uelbed is moderate litter load ith -rass and shrub components. Spread rate hi-hG

flame len-th moderate.!% =.!

T"@+uelbed is hi-h load conifer litter ith shrub understory. Spread rate moderateG

flame len-th moderate.@ @.@

Tiber &itter %uel T!pe ?odels 5dead and don oody fuel litter beneath a forest canopy6

T,@1,i-ht to moderate load9 fuels 1 to % inches deep. Spread rate )ery loG flame len-th

)ery lo.@ @.@

T,@% ,o load9 compact. Spread rate )ery loG flame len-th )ery lo. 13( 1.=

T,@3 8oderate load conifer litter. Spread rate )ery loG flame len-th lo. 10 @.%

T,@08oderate load9 includes small diameter doned lo-s. Spread rate loG flame len-th

lo.@ @.@

T,@:i-h load conifer litterG li-ht slash or mortality fuel. Spread rate loG flame len-th

lo.@ @.@

T,@= 8oderate load9 less compact. Spread rate moderateG flame len-th lo. 3 @.0

T,@#8oderate load and compactness may include small amount of herbaceous load.

Spread rate moderateG flame len-th lo.@ @.@

T,@(4ery hi-h load broadleaf litterG hea)y needledrape in otherise sparse shrub layer.

Spread rate moderateG flame len-th moderate.@ @.@

Slash>#lo2do2n %uel T!pe ?odels 5acti)ity fuel>slash or debris from ind dama-e6

S'@1 ,o load acti)ity fuel. Spread rate moderateG flame len-th lo. @ @.@

S'@%8oderate load acti)ity or lo load blodon. Spread rate moderateG flame len-th

moderate.@ @.@

S'@3:i-h load acti)ity fuel or moderate load blodon. Spread rate hi-hG flame len-th

hi-h.@ @.@

Custo %uel T!pe ?odels (all states except %lorida)


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(PP, ,on-needle 5pine litter9 plantations6 ith a hi-h load = @.1

BR@1h Pasture and hayland %1 @.%

on>burnable %uel T!pe ?odels 5insufficient ildland fuel to carry a ildland fire under any condition6

'@1"rban or suburban de)elopmentG insufficient ildland fuel to carry ildland fire.

Includes roads.#%# (.=

'@3 A-ricultural field9 maintained in nonburnable condition. 1% @.1

'@# *pen ater 9%1@ =@.=

'@( 'are -round %13 %.

/0., %ire #eha+ior Prediction S!ste ' *&B USD %*R %&*RIDA ASSSS?T

+8 1 Short -rass @ @.@

+8 % Timber -rass and understory @ @.@

+8 3 Tall -rass @ @.@

+8 0 Chaparral @ @.@

+8 'rush @ @.@

+8 = ormant brush @ @.@

+8 ! Southern rou-h @ @.@

+8 # Compact timber litter @ @.@

+8 ( :ardood litter @ @.@

+8 1@ Timber 5understory6 @ @.@

+8 11 ,i-ht lo--in- slash @ @.@

+8 1% 8edium lo--in- slash @ @.@


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Doer *perabilit! Ratin$escription

The Doer *perabilit! Ratin$ (D*R) expresses ho2 difficult it is to

operate a doer in an area based on l iitations associated 2ith

slope and +e$etation


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ReferencesAnderson9 :. /. 51(#%6. Aids to determinin- fuel models for estimatin- fire beha)ior. "SA +or. Ser). Ben. Tech. Rep. IT1%%.

obson9 H. /.9 /. A. 'ri-ht9 P. R. Coleman9 and '.,. 'haduri. ,andScan; a -lobal population database for estimatin- populations at risk. Remotely

Sensed Cities /d. 4. 8ese)9 ,ondon; Taylor D +rancis. %@@3. %=!%#1.

+ire Pro-ram Analysis 5+PA6 System and "S +orest Ser)ice 8issoula +ire Sciences ,aboratory9 %@10@3@!9 'urn Probabilities for the Conterminous

"S 5%!@m BRI6 from Calibrated +Sim Runs for the %@10 +PA Submissions JbpK%@10@3@!L;9 +ire Pro-ram Analysis 5+PA6 System9 ationalIntera-ency +ire Center9 'oise9 I.

ational Wildfire Coordinatin- Broup 5WCB6. 5%@@#6. Blossary of Wildland +ire Terminolo-y. Publication 8ana-ement System document P8S

%@.

Radeloff9 4.C.9 R.'. :ammer9 S.I Steart9 H.S. +ried9 S.S. :olcomb9 and H.+. 8cMeefry. %@@. The Wildland "rban Interface in the "nited States.

/colo-ical Applications 1; !((#@

Scott9 H. :.9 D 'ur-an9 R. /. 5%@@6. Standard +ire 'eha)ior +uel 8odels; A Comprehensi)e Set for "se ith RothermelNs Surface +ire Spread

8odel. +t. Collins9 C*9 Rocky 8ountain Research Station; "SA +orest Ser)ice9 Ben. Tech. Rpt. R8RSBTR13.

Scott9 H. :.9 D Reinhardt9 /. . 5%@@16. Assessin- the Cron +ire Potential by ,inkin- 8odels of Surface and Cron +ire 'eha)ior. +t. Collins9 C*9

Rocky 8ountain Research Station; "SA +orest Ser)ice9 Research Paper R8RSRP%(.

Scott9 Hoe. o)ember %@@=. *ff the Richter; 8a-nitude and Intensity Scales for Wildland +ire. A nonpublished hite paper prepared for the A+/

+ire Con-ress9 o)ember %@@=9 San ie-o9 CA.

Thompson9 8. P.9 . /. Calkin9 8. A. +inney9 A. A. A-er9 and H. W. Bilbertsonay. %@11. Inte-rated ationalScale Assessment of Wildfire Risk to

:uman and /colo-ical 4alues. Stochastic /n)ironmental Research and Risk Assessment %;!=1!#@.

8ore information about the +ire Pro-ram Analysis pro7ect is a)ailable from

http;>>.forestsandran-elands.-o)>W+IT>applications>+PA>inde$.shtml

8ore information about the *ak Rid-e ational ,aboratory ,andScan data is a)ailable from

http;>>eb.ornl.-o)>sci>landscan>landscanKdocumentation.shtml

8ore information about the ".S. +orest Ser)ice SI,4IS data is a)ailable from http;>>sil)is.forest.isc.edu>maps>uiKmain


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risk summary report 2015

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