risk management in nuclear projects and strategy of small reactors [compatibility mode]

• Risk assessment scenario and approaches for nuclear

power ..Project Structuring

• Challenges and issues in control and monitoring

existing proposed reactor designs for project structuring

Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to

24th 2011 Singapore 1

• Consideration of high level uncertainties in the risk

study of a nuclear power plant: Project Cost Risks

• Small reactors and risk dispersion, Small Reactor

Advantages

Himadri Banerji, Former CEO, Reliance Energy –

Chairman & Managing Director, EcoUrja, India

Government - which is responsible for overall energy policy and, in some cases, financing

Market - formed by electricity customers wanting electricity at a competitive price

Utility (generator) - which is ultimately responsible for developing the complete project

Stakeholders in Nuclear Power Project

project

EPC contractors - engineering, procurement and construction companies which are responsible to the owner for delivery according to schedule and budget

Vendors - which are responsible for supplying equipment and technology to either the owner, the EPC contractor or as part of a joint venture or consortium, according to schedule and budget

Safety Authority - which is responsible for addressing all matters related to protecting public safety and the environment, from the design stage to plant operation and fuel management.Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd

Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to 24th 2011 Singapore 2

Table 2: Risk control and monitoring in nuclear power projects

Table 2 shows ways in which the risks of nuclear projects can be monitored and controlled, to match Table 1.Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to


In today’s global energy environment, nuclear power plant project (NPPP)

managers need to consider many dimensions of risk in addition to nuclear

safety-related risk.

In order to stay competitive in modern energy markets, NPPP managers

must integrate management of project, safety-related, and economic risks

in an effective way. in an effective way.

Project structuring is to achieve the most efficient application of capital andresources.

Project risks must be assigned to the party most capable of handing their control..



This integrated risk management (RM) approach generates benefits that

include the following:

•Clearer criteria for decision making.

• Making effective use of investments already made in probabilistic safety

analysis (PSA) programs by applying these analyses to other areas and

contexts.

• Cost consciousness and innovation in achieving nuclear safety and

production goals.

• Communication improvement — more effective internal communication

among all levels of the NPP operating organization, and clearer communication

between the organization and its stakeholders.

• Focus on safety — ensuring an integrated focus on safety, production, and

economics during times of change in the energy environment



COST INDEX

SAFETY INDEXPresented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to


Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PSA)

Comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method

aimed at



Identifying and assessing risks in complex

technological systems

for the purpose of

Cost-effectively improving their safety and

performance.

Contd from previous slide



�The cost of the land upon which the nuclear power plant (NPP) is built.

�Costs related to designing the NPP

�Cost related to the materials from which the NPP is built.

�Labour costs related to manufacture and construction.

There are eight primary sources of nuclear costs which

pose major project risks:

�The cost of obtaining regulatory approval AND PERMITS LIKE WATER ETC

�Investment related costs (interest, etc.)

�Transportation and Access related costs

�The cost of the electrical transmission system that connects the NPP to the

grid

�Lost Opportunities for Combining Cycles and Improving Efficiencies Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to


Land related costs can be lowered if the investor already owns the land. In the

case of NPPs, land costs can be lowered if the NPP is built on a pre-existing NPP

site.

Other, for example transportation related investments may not be required, and

access to water is very likely to be available.

NPPs can also be located on the site of obsolete coal fired power plants slated

The cost of the land upon which the

nuclear power plant (NPP) is built

NPPs can also be located on the site of obsolete coal fired power plants slated

to be shut down for technological or environmental reasons.

The same advantages of the NPP location would apply to the coal powered site,

and additional facilities – for example the turbine hall, parking lots,

administrative buildings, workshops, transformer farms, etc. - can potentially be

recycled.

The layout and size of an existing coal fired power plant may not be

appropriate for adaptation for a large nuclear plant, but a cluster of small

reactor approach would allow for far greater flexibility in facility layout,

and would be far more easy to accommodate.Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to


Small reactors, especially advanced technology small reactors, offer

advancements in siting flexibility.

For example, clusters of small reactors can be located in former salt mines.

Serial production lowers design costs.

Costs related to designing the NPP

Design costs are largely fixed.

Design costs can be divided among all of the units produced.

If one reactor of a particular design is produced, then the recovery of the

cost of that design would be through sale of that unit.

If hundreds of units are produced, the recovery of the design cost can be

divided between all of the units.



Clusters of Small Reactors




Finally, design simplification can lower nuclear costs.

The Generation IV Molten Salt Reactor design offers revolutionary design

simplification. In the Molten Salt Reactor the fuel is dissolved in the

coolant.

Thus much of the core structure is eliminated. Because the Molten Salt


Thus much of the core structure is eliminated. Because the Molten Salt

Reactor features a negative coefficient of reactivity, the reactor is highly

stable without operator control input.

Control rods can be partially or completely eliminated.

These simple features lower manufacturing costs. And lessen

manufacturing time.



The material input into a NPP per watt of output typically decreases as

total reactor output rises.

Traditionally this has lead to the economies of scales argument, which

maintains that the larger the reactor output, the lower the per watt cost.

There are, however, problems with this assessment.

Cost related to the materials from which the NPP is built

There are, however, problems with this assessment.

While it is true that larger size usually means lower material costs per unit

of electrical output, there are exceptions to this rule, especially with

respect to advanced nuclear technology.



For example:

The greater thermal efficiency of a reactor of similar core size might lower output

cost per unit of heat, compared to that of a similar sized, but less efficient design.

Reactor safety issues may effect materials input.


Reactor safety issues may effect materials input.

Light Water Reactor cores and heat exchanges operate under very high pressure.

They require significant amounts of material to prevent steam explosions.

LWR outer containment structures are typically massive, and thus require large



A more compact reactor core may lower material requirements.

Thus if two reactors have the same output, the one with the smaller core

is likely to require fewer materials.

Underground reactor siting could potentially lower reactor structural

costs, by offering protection against terrorist attacks from aircraft and at


costs, by offering protection against terrorist attacks from aircraft and at

surface levels with lower materials inputs.

.



Small generation components can lower material requirements.

Thus supercritical carbon dioxide turbines are much smaller than steam

turbines used in conventional reactors.

Small turbines require fewer materials, and can be housed in smaller

turbine halls, which in turn require less material and labour input to

build.


Thus a small advanced technology reactor with a compact core and

high thermal efficiency, that operates at a one atmosphere pressure

level, and can be sited underground might require fewer materials

inputs per unit of electrical output than a much larger conventional

reactor



In addition manufacturing costs can be lowered by simplifying reactor

design. Passive safety features can in some instances lower nuclear

costs.

For example thermo-siphoning of reactor coolant, may save the cost of

manufacturing and installing coolant pumps.

Reactor Design Lowers Manufacturing Costs

Gravity feed emergency coolant systems save on manufacturing costs

in several ways,

They do not require backup generators or pumps, thus many of the

expenses of older emergency coolant systems can be saved.



The B&W mPower reactor, with its scalable, modular design, has the

capacity to provide 125 MWe to 750 MWe or more for a 4.5-year operating

cycle without refuelling, and is designed to produce clean, zero-emission

operations.

Babcock & Wilcox Nuclear Energy, Inc. will lead the development, licensing

and delivery of B&W mPower reactor projects.

Features of the B&W mPower reactor include:

mPower Reactors from B&W

Features of the B&W mPower reactor include:

�Integral nuclear system design

�Passive safety systems

�Underground containment

�4.5-year operating cycle between refueling

�Scalable, modular design is flexible for local needs

�Multi-unit (1 to 10+) plant

�Used fuel stored in spent fuel pool for life of the reactor (60 years)

�Country shop-manufactured



Labour costs can be lowered by shifting work from the field to a

factory. The more labor which can be performed in a factory, the lower

the over all costs.

Modular production is consistent with factory manufacture. Factory

manufacture lowers labor costs in several ways.

First serial production leads to the division of labor, which in turn

Labour costs related to manufacture and construction.

First serial production leads to the division of labor, which in turn

typically increases labor productivity.

The division of labor decreases the skill set required from individual

workers.

Decreased labor skill sets decrease labor wage expectations.

Factory work settings, as opposed to field work settings also decrease

wage expectations.



The current nuclear regulatory environment favour serial

manufacture.

Once an example of a particular nuclear design is approved by the

NRC is approved, the approval of all subsequent reactors using the

The cost of obtaining regulatory approval and permits like for

water

design is automatic.

Environmental aspects of subsequent application, however, receive

the same attention, since they vary from facility to facility.



In addition to NRC license requirements, other licenses or permits may be

required.

For example, the use of cooling water from rivers and lakes is not automatic,

and usually requires regulatory approval.

One of the advantages of recycling coal fired power plant sites, is that water

access permits may already exist, and potentially can be transferred.

The cost of obtaining regulatory approval and permits like for water

But what if obtaining a water use permit is not possible?

With small reactor designs air rather water cooling is practical, with

relatively modest efficiency penalties.

With efficient advanced reactors, the efficiency benefits may far outweigh

the efficiency losses related to air cooling.



Interest accrues as nuclear power plant construction, and accrued interest may

amount to a significant percentage of NPP capital costs, especially if the

construction project stretches to half a decade or more.

Small factory built reactors are expected to have shortened construction times,

compared to large conventional reactors.

Simplified advanced reactor designs are also expected to shorten NPP

construction time.

Investment related costs (interest, etc.)

construction time.

These shortening construction time can decrease the interest component of

capital costs significantly.



Interest charges may reflect the market's assessment of project risks.

The greater a projects assumed risk, the higher the interest premium the

market will assess.

By decreasing a project's size, and lowering projected

manufacturing/construction time, nuclear project builders can offer the

market lower perceived risks.

Investment related costs (interest, etc.)

market lower perceived risks.

Lower perceived risks, will lead to interest discounts compared to higher risk

large nuclear projects.



Small, factory manufactured reactors offer advantages in transportation costs.

Conventional reactors include a number of very large and heavy components,

that present transportation challenges.

Components such as pressure vessels and steam generators may require

special and highly unusual transportation arrangements if they are transported

overland.

Transportation and Access Related Costs

Special huge road transportation vehicles, some capable of moving no more

than three miles an hour may disrupt highway uses in large areas over several

weeks as they transported conventional reactor steam generators and pressure

vessels to reactor sites.

In contrast, small reactor cores may be moved by trucks or by rail as ordinary

freight.

In areas where water shortages represent acute problems, small reactor access to

reliable water supplies is unnecessary. Air cooling will enable small reactors to

operate with out a reliable water supply.Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to


Small reactor clusters located at recycled coal fire power plant locations

potentially have greatly simplified grid connections.

Not only can they be located near to the cities they are intended to serve, but

grid hook-up is facilitated by existing transformer farms, and grid

connections.

The cost of the electrical transmission system that connects the NPP

to the grid

Because they can be located close to served cities new transmission lines will

not cover long distances, thus lowering grid expansion costs.

Large reactors may require new transmission lines that are hundreds of miles

long, in order to move surplus electricity to market.



Small reactor clusters located at recycled coal fire power plant



In addition to the above savings, and potential savings mentioned above there

are other potential savings that may be available with small reactors.

For example, with advanced nuclear technology, for example molten salt

reactors, combined Rankine (steam) and Brayton (gas) cycles are possible.

A bottoming desalinization cycle could be offered to the system, thus offering

Lost Opportunities for Combining Cycles and Improving Efficiencies

A bottoming desalinization cycle could be offered to the system, thus offering

formidable efficiency from small reactor packages.

A high temperature reactor can provide top cycle heat for industrial processes,

as well as producing middle cycle electricity generation, and bottom cycle heat

for electrical generation.

By adding a second generating cycle, small reactors can lower their electrical

generation costs.

Desalination would add a further revenue stream from the reactors operation

through the sale of portable water. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji 2nd Annual Nuclear Power June 21st to


Shifts from conventional nuclear technology, to some advanced nuclear

technologies, also offer significant potential savings.

‘Some advanced technology savings are available to both large and small

nuclear power plants, but the flexibility of small NPPs may mean that at

least in certain situations

Benefits in Risk Management By shifting to Small Reactors

least in certain situations

Small advanced nuclear power plants may offer very significant potential

savings in comparison to large conventional NPPs.



Status of Development of Small Reactors



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