risk management - from an adventure to a venture... princess elisabeth antarctica
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Risk Management - From an Adventure to a Venture... Princess Elisabeth AntarcticaTRANSCRIPT
Bruges 6-9 May 2012
From an Adventure to a Venture...Princess Elisabeth Antarctica
FERMA Risk Management SeminarVersailles, France - 23 October 2012
S O U T H E R N O C E A N
S O U T H E R N O C E A N
RONNE ICE SHELF
ROSSICE SHELF
AMERY ICE SHELF
H A A K O N V I I S E A
D U M O N T D ' U R V I L L E S E A
D A V I S S E A
M A W S O N S E A
B E L L I N G S H A U S E NS E A
AMUNDSENSEA
W E D D E L L S E A
R O S S S E A
Unprecedented - NGO leading project for a national stationFinancial challenges: 16M€ (private sector) + 6M€ (public)Technical challenges: prototype development from existing technologies Logistic challenges: no existing infrastructures in AntarcticaBuilding partner networks (tech, logistics, financial, best practice)Foresee future management strategyContinuous evolution towards Zero Emissions
Overcoming Challenges
Princess Elisabeth & IPY
First
Zero Emission station
The Challenges
A non stop workingOffloading the material
Offloading the material on sea ice
Travelling through hazardous terrain with crevassesExtreme weather conditionsExtreme weather conditions
Wall thickness: 53cm8 layers (inside to outside): Felt Vapor barrierMassive wood (lamellate)Polystyrene (40 cm graphite-polystyrene)Massive woodEPDM Expanded foamStainless steel
Innovating towards Zero EmissionsMaterial choice: the skin
Variable DemandControl & SupplyEnergy productionEnergy requestBalance available energy & cumulated request
Dynamic prioritizationLimited production capacity
security
station operations
science
daily life
entertainment
Programmable Logic Controller
Priority 4
Priority 5
Priority 2
Priority 1
Priority 3
Wind turbines
Solar panels
Solar thermal
Backup Generator
Snow Melter Unit
Ventilation Unit
Water Treatment Unit
Backup Generator
PLC
Battery storage
Variable DemandControl & SupplyEnergy productionEnergy requestBalance available energy & cumulated request
Dynamic prioritizationLimited production capacity
security
station operations
science
daily life
entertainment
Programmable Logic Controller
Priority 4
Priority 5
Priority 2
Priority 1
Priority 3
Wind turbines
Solar panels
Solar thermal
Backup Generator
Snow Melter Unit
Ventilation Unit
Water Treatment Unit
Backup Generator
PLC
Battery storage
Renewable Energies:Batteries as buffer
Life inside the Station
Polar Regions &Climate Change
What We know about Temperature
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html
CO2 annual mean data 2011
391.57 ppm
What We Know About CO2 Concentration
Climate Archive, Earth Observation
10 000 years: neolithic revolution
500 000 years: mastery of fire
390 ppm
EPICA Ice CoreProxy Temperatures & CO2
390 ppmv
ppm
v CO
2
2010
Sources: Jouzel, J., et al. 2007. and Lüthi, D., et al.. 2008
Tem
pera
ture
°C
12 Jul 20128 Jul 2012 Credit: Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA
A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state.
Climate Tipping Points (Allianz 2011) Drought, Ice Melting, Changing Oceans, Dying Forests, Changing Ecosystems Ice melting: Arctic Sea Ice, Continental Ice Caps, Greenland Ice Sheet, Permafrost, West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North (Lloyd’s 2012)Climate Protection and Adaptation to Global Warming (Munich Re)
Climate Tipping Points
For more information on the scientific content of AVOID, contact:Dr Jason Lowe, Chief Scientist for AVOID, Met Office Hadley Centre, UKEmail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5612
For more information on how to join AVOID, contact:Dr Jolene Cook, Programme Officer for AVOID, DECC, UKEmail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)300 068 5589
To receive updates on the AVOID programme:Email: [email protected]
INTERACTIONS Climate scientists now understand that many potentially dangerous climate changes are linked (see schematic).
These links, which can act over very large distances, have the potential to greatly increase the impacts resulting from just one type of dangerous event. However, the strength of the links cannot yet be reliably quantified.
Two examples of such large-scale interactions are:
Greenland ice-sheet
• Freshwater from the melting ice could increase the risk of a shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean conveyor belt.
• Sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice could increase the risk of destabilising the Antarctic ice-sheet.
• In the long-term, the melting of Greenland ice might also lead to further warming (as the exposed land surface becomes darker) increasing the risk across the globe of other temperature-dependent abrupt changes being triggered.
Met OfficeFitzRoy Road, ExeterDevon, EX1 3PBUnited Kingdom
Tel: 0870 900 0100 Fax: 0870 900 [email protected] www.metoffice.gov.uk
Produced by the Met Office © Crown copyright 2010 10/0202c Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks
Sketch of the main interactions (in green) between potential thresholds (in blue)3.
Heat toSouthern Ocean
Changes inwater cycle
Changes inatmosphericwater supply
Changes inatmospheric
moisture supplyDrying overAmazonia
Warming of Rossand Amundsen Seas
Changes insaltwater gradient
Largefreshwater input
Cooling of north-easttropical Pacific
Reduction of warmingaround Greenland
Sea-level risedestabilising the
Antarctic ice-sheet
Melting of Greenland ice-sheets
Changes inocean circulation
Amazondieback
Shift ofEl Niño
iaDisintegration of West
Antarctic ice-sheet
3 Adapted from expert consultation study: Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R and Schellnhuber HJ. 2009: Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Volume: 106, Issue: 13, Pages: 5041-5046.
4 During El Niño warm water spreads from the West Pacific and Indian Ocean to the East Pacific.
Tropical Pacific
• El Niño4 in the Tropical Pacific has a profound effect on the climate of the surrounding region and widespread impacts around the world.
• El Niño affects rainfall patterns in the Tropics. Changes in El Niño could change the supply of moisture to the Amazon, reducing rainfall, and making the rainforest more vulnerable to dieback. This could further reduce rainfall and affect moisture supply back to the Pacific.
• El Niño could also affect, and be affected by, the ocean circulation, changing the heating around Antarctica and at high northern latitudes.
New observations and emerging work with Earth system models — like the new model from the Met Office Hadley Centre — is focused on better understanding the different components of the climate system and the interactions between potentially abrupt climate changes.
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, Walker Institute, Tyndall Centre and Grantham Institute for Climate Change. (2010). AVOID Flyer: Risks of dangerous climate change.
For more information on the scientific content of AVOID, contact:Dr Jason Lowe, Chief Scientist for AVOID, Met Office Hadley Centre, UKEmail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5612
For more information on how to join AVOID, contact:Dr Jolene Cook, Programme Officer for AVOID, DECC, UKEmail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)300 068 5589
To receive updates on the AVOID programme:Email: [email protected]
INTERACTIONS Climate scientists now understand that many potentially dangerous climate changes are linked (see schematic).
These links, which can act over very large distances, have the potential to greatly increase the impacts resulting from just one type of dangerous event. However, the strength of the links cannot yet be reliably quantified.
Two examples of such large-scale interactions are:
Greenland ice-sheet
• Freshwater from the melting ice could increase the risk of a shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean conveyor belt.
• Sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice could increase the risk of destabilising the Antarctic ice-sheet.
• In the long-term, the melting of Greenland ice might also lead to further warming (as the exposed land surface becomes darker) increasing the risk across the globe of other temperature-dependent abrupt changes being triggered.
Met OfficeFitzRoy Road, ExeterDevon, EX1 3PBUnited Kingdom
Tel: 0870 900 0100 Fax: 0870 900 [email protected] www.metoffice.gov.uk
Produced by the Met Office © Crown copyright 2010 10/0202c Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks
Sketch of the main interactions (in green) between potential thresholds (in blue)3.
Heat toSouthern Ocean
Changes inwater cycle
Changes inatmosphericwater supply
Changes inatmospheric
moisture supplyDrying overAmazonia
Warming of Rossand Amundsen Seas
Changes insaltwater gradient
Largefreshwater input
Cooling of north-easttropical Pacific
Reduction of warmingaround Greenland
Sea-level risedestabilising the
Antarctic ice-sheet
Melting of Greenland ice-sheets
Changes inocean circulation
Amazondieback
Shift ofEl Niño
iaDisintegration of West
Antarctic ice-sheet
3 Adapted from expert consultation study: Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R and Schellnhuber HJ. 2009: Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Volume: 106, Issue: 13, Pages: 5041-5046.
4 During El Niño warm water spreads from the West Pacific and Indian Ocean to the East Pacific.
Tropical Pacific
• El Niño4 in the Tropical Pacific has a profound effect on the climate of the surrounding region and widespread impacts around the world.
• El Niño affects rainfall patterns in the Tropics. Changes in El Niño could change the supply of moisture to the Amazon, reducing rainfall, and making the rainforest more vulnerable to dieback. This could further reduce rainfall and affect moisture supply back to the Pacific.
• El Niño could also affect, and be affected by, the ocean circulation, changing the heating around Antarctica and at high northern latitudes.
New observations and emerging work with Earth system models — like the new model from the Met Office Hadley Centre — is focused on better understanding the different components of the climate system and the interactions between potentially abrupt climate changes.
Main Interactions between Thresholds
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Global Sea-level Rise, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-sea-level-rise
Adaptation?
EUEuropean Climate Change ProgrammeClimate Adaptation Platform
European Environment Agency EEAUrban Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (2012)
UKClimate Change Risk Assessment (Jan 2012)National Adaptation Programme (2013)
and many more National Adaptation Strategies...
Adaptation to Climate Change
Understanding the Poles......to Build a Sustainable Future
Thank You!