risk management and bounded rationality

ComMetrics

2008_06_16

Session 8: Risk management bounded rationalityhow it works in business

Presented by

http://info.cytrap.eu/?p=134social media trends 2011

http://info.cytrap.eu/?p=176ComMetrics blog checklist

Who is: Urs E. Gattiker?http://bio.gattiker.name

Urs E. Gattiker , Ph.D.

My.ComMetrics.com

http://info.cytrap.eu/?p=134


http://bio.gattiker.name/

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_About my 10 sessions:

Slides – copies – latest version that I use in class can be found here:

==> http://www.slideshare.net/ComMetricsUniversity

You can also watch videos at:

==> http://www.youtube.com/ComMetrics

2011_01_18

_Introduction >Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

http://www.slideshare.net/ComMetrics

http://www.youtube.com/ComMetrics

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_One more thing

2011_01_17

Please try to focus on the following:

3 most critical things we learned today

3 things I love to get more infos about

We will discuss at the end


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_Wrap up from last session

2011_01_17

3 critical things learned – students listed/mentioned the following


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_3 most critical things we learned yesterday

2011_01_17

- Conflicting triangle

- Communication of strategy

- How to better search on Google - Tip

- SM – reach different target group(s) for different purposes

- Style does matter --- besides content, of course

- Marketing/PR is push – Social Media (SM) is pull


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2011_01_17

-Strategy involves 1st clients, employees, suppliers and last shareholders

- WordPress software allows you to manage a website, it is also a content management system (CMS)

. Have different e-mail addresses for different purposes (newsletter

subscriptions, business, news) helps when you change jobs & fight spam

- SM can mean that a few people can make a lot of noise – sometimes even

a small group can convince management to change brand logo, etc.


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2011_01_17

- Coming up with ideas and putting it into practice takes planning and time

- Accept that mistakes happen

- Social Media enables non-geeks to do many things, technology isthe backend

- KISS – Keep it simple, stupid http://howto.commetrics.com/?page_id=132

-SMART metrics http://howto.commetrics.com/?page_id=104

- Social Media is not only B2C but also involves B2B


http://howto.commetrics.com/?page_id=132





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_Example from a client

2011_01_17

How can we make these things work


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_the client – check your data

#1 Research says we need to use social media in 2011

Challenge better, more, etc.

Strategy: do – it – But we assessed the risks, cost-benefit,

Believe the above cited study? Margin of error?

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/press/Press-

Releases/795bde62061cc210VgnVCM3000001c56f00aRCRD.html

2011_01_18


http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/press/Press-Releases/795bde62061cc210VgnVCM3000001c56f00aRCRD.html



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_the client – check your data

Solution hold up your hand if you hate research methodology?

Sample, type of research, statistics, context of study?

Big risk is when using one research report....

Do I make my decision based on useful information reported in the

White Paper or do the findings not apply to my situation?

2011_01_18


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_3 Why it matters – today‘s 3 nuggets

1 What is risk?

2 How can one assess and manage risks?

2011_01_18


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_Purpose

2011_01_18

What is this all about?

>Introduction _Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_What is risk?

2011_01_18

Definition in textbook?

Does you textbook define risk?How was risk defined in other MBA courses?

Can you define systematic and unsystematic risk?

What is your company‘s risk policy?

(please bring document to class)

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::


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_What is risk?

2011_01_18

CyTRAP Labs - risk

- what amount of risk taking is aceptable to your organization


http://info.cytrap.eu/?page_id=178


http://info.cytrap.eu//?page_id=79






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_What is risk?

2011_01_18

Risk never sleeps

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDmBLF4-PzA&NR=1







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_What is risk?

2011_01_18

Inadvertent geo-tagging on your smartphone

http://www.icanstalku.com/how.php

Facebook unless you de-activate you can be geo-tagged

http://commetrics.com/?p=10242 (near buttom – video)




http://www.icanstalku.com/how.php

http://commetrics.com/?p=10242

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_What is risk?

2011_01_18


http://www.myfoxboston.com/dpp/news/special_reports/geotagging-

putting-you-at-risk-20101109 video about geo-tagging

Ask your friends before you mindlessly share being at the same

restaurant or gondola.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/dpp/news/special_reports/geotagging-putting-you-at-risk-20101109











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_From Purpose to HowTo

2011_01_18

How do we put this into practice?

>Introduction >Purpose _HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_Why is risk so difficult to grasp

2011_01_18

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laKprX-HP94&feature=related

- How can we make it simpler – KISS is key





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_KISS –

2011_01_18

Each tries to identify the worst expected loss

based on some confidence

But they have a different

approach in how they

describe the distribution of

losses


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_3 assigned readings – Topic 8

2011_01_18

- we choose a student to moderate the discussion – you can

volunteer yourself for today or for tomorrow

- please have your notes ready – all students

- Chosen reading is:

- Could your risk management approach regarding IT, data,

marketing strategy, R&D fail?


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_Tools & Tips – e-mails

2011_01_18

- What can we do to manage that risk.... ?

- What type of risks are we talking about?

>Introduction >Purpose >HowTo _Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_Tools & Tips

2011_01_18

- What about compliance and e-mail?

- What do you do if I cannot reach your e-mail because the spam

filter is to tough (does not let my e-mail pass)?

- What kind of compliance issue is this?

- Why use a private permanent address?

a – work address

b – private address

Fred-Thomas, Roland, Thomas, etc.


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_Decision time – how do we deal with risks?

2011_01_18

- What can an organization do when it fails to run

its governance properly?

- What can the regulator do? Have financial

markets changed because of the regulators?


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_Student Case – Fred-Thomas Altaner

2011_01_18

- Fred-Thomas leads discussion

-2009-11-15 - Why You Can't Use Personal Technology at the Office

-2010-03-08 - Are Macs Really Cheaper To Manage Than PCs?

-We will relate the above readings to strategy, risk management and

so forth

>Introduction >Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips _Decision >Conclusions

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_Innovation

2011_01_18

http://vimeo.com/6893285

How to predict earth quakes ---

9 min video Einstein/Swiss TV in German but with English sub-titles


http://vimeo.com/6893285

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_Margin of Error

2011_01_18

50 year maturity bonds as an example


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_Margin of error - How do

we know we are right?

2011_01_18

How well the survey sample

represents the population is gauged

by two important statistics

1 - the survey's margin of error and

2 - the confidence level.

Level of confidence

is a measure of how confident

we are in a given margin of

error (often people use 95%).


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_How do we know we

are right?

2011_01_18

The margin of error and level of confidence depend on the

sample size (and NOT on population size).

A confidence level of 95 percent, plus or minus 3 percent means

that if this student or client survey is conducted 100 times, and if

we get 50% to say it is very good, the percentage who consider

career services ‘very good’ will range between 47 and 53 percent

most of the time (i.e. 95 percent)

Citation: Gattiker, U. E. (January 4, 2011). Raise your hand if you hate research. ComMetrics eBook series

#2011-01, Zurich: CyTRAP Labs GmbH.


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_One last thing – Wrap-up

2011_01_18

>Introduction >Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision _Conclusions

What we learned

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_One last thing – Wrap-up

2011_01_18


1 What is risk?

2 How can one assess and manage risks?

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_One more thing

2011_01_17

Please discuss:

3 most critical things we learned today

3 things I love to get more infos about


ComMetrics

2008_06_16

My.ComMetrics.comSession 8: Risk management and bounded rationality

how it works in business

Presented by http://My.ComMetrics.com (free registration)

http://ComMetrics.com (blog)


social media trends 2011


ComMetrics blog checklist

Urs E. Gattiker , Ph.D.

Roentgenstrasse 49 Street

CH-8005 Zuerich Zip Code

Switzerland Country

+41(0)44 272 1876 Voice

+41(0)76 200 7778 Cell

[email protected] Google Talk

www.ComMetrics.com URL

http://my.commetrics.com/

http://commetrics.com/



risk management and bounded rationality

Business

big risk

unsystematic risk

commetrics blog checklistwho

session3 critical things

cytrap labs risk

companys risk policy

today3 things

stupid http