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CMA Global Sovereign Credit Risk Report

1st Quarter 2012

Credit Risk Report

1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information

2

Contents

Data: Methodology & Definitions ..................................................................................................................................3

Changes in CMA Sovereign Debt Coverage ................................................................................................................3

Top 10 Most Risky Sovereign Credits ..........................................................................................................................4

Top 10 Least Risky Sovereign Credits .........................................................................................................................6

Best Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change ...................................................................................................7

Worst Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change .................................................................................................8

Regional Focus: USA & UK ..........................................................................................................................................9

Regional Focus: Western Europe .............................................................................................................................. 10

Regional Focus: Emerging Europe ............................................................................................................................ 12

Regional Focus: Scandinavia & Nordic Region ......................................................................................................... 13

Regional Focus: Middle East & North Africa ............................................................................................................. 14

Regional Focus: Asia ................................................................................................................................................. 15

Regional Focus: Australia & New Zealand ................................................................................................................ 17

Regional Focus: Central & South America ................................................................................................................ 18

Global Ranking by CPD ............................................................................................................................................. 19

CMA Datavision™ Greek Bonds ............................................................................................................................... 21

About CMA & Contact Details .................................................................................................................................... 23

Usage, Redistribution & Publication of Data .............................................................................................................. 23

Disclaimer & Disclosure ............................................................................................................................................. 23

Credit Risk Report


3

Data: Methodology & Definitions

This paper focuses on changes in the risk profile of sovereign debt issuers, with the intention to identify key trends

and drivers of change.

We have divided world debt risk into eight regions: USA & UK, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, Scandinavia &

Nordic Regions, Middle East & North Africa, Asia, Australia & New Zealand and Central & South America. In

addition to identifying themes within each of these regions, macro trends across the sovereign debt sector are also

discussed.

CDS values are calculated by CMA DatavisionTM

– an independent Credit Default Swap (CDS) pricing service

based on data collected from CMA’s consortium of CDS buy-side firms. CMA DatavisionTM

is the only CDS pricing

service to provide independent, intraday price verification for CDS (single name, indices, tranches and quantos),

Bonds and ABS.

All spreads shown are five year mid PAR spreads which is not the normal convention that is quoted in the market.

CDS quoting conventions vary according to market conditions and conventions. Par spreads are used given they

can be computed consistently across all credits allowing cross comparison.

Unless otherwise stated, data is as of the 29th March 2012 close. Record highs are determined by using closing

values and do not factor in intraday highs.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD) quantifies the probability of a country being unable to honour its debt

obligations over a given time period. For sovereign CDS, this typically includes the probability of a restructuring of

debt. Unless otherwise stated, all values are for the five year CPD. CPD is calculated using an industry standard

model and proprietary credit data from CMA DatavisionTM

and is based only the price of the CDS and recovery

assumption. Reference to ‘risky’ in this report is in terms of the CPD.

CMA Implied Ratings are calculated using a proprietary model developed by CMA and input with CDS pricing data

from CMA DatavisionTM

.

Data Access: CMA provides independent, intraday pricing on approximately 1,400 single name CDS and CDS

Indices. Widely used by traders, risk managers, treasurers and researchers in financial institutions across the world,

CDS data is available directly from CMA or via our strategic channel partners www.cmavision.com/partners/.

CMA Datavision™ Bonds provides independent pricing and market metrics for over 14,000 corporate, convertible

and emerging market government bonds. Crucially, it includes liquidity and other contextual information, making it

indispensable for front office, price verification and risk management professionals who need to measure

transaction costs and pricing uncertainty, especially for hard-to-price bonds.

For more information about how CMA can help you effectively monitor and manage your credit exposures please

contact us at [email protected]

Changes in CMA Sovereign Debt Coverage

Deletions:

■ Greece following a default event.

Additions:

■ Cyprus following inclusion in the index replacing Greece.

http://www.cmavision.com/partners/

mailto:[email protected]?subject=CMA%20Global%20Sovereign%20Credit%20Risk%20Report%20Q4%202011%20-%20Feeback

Credit Risk Report


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Top 10 Most Risky Sovereign Credits

Position

Q1

Country 5 Year CPD (%) CMA Implied

Rating

5 Year CDS Mid

(bps)

Previous

Ranking

1 Cyprus 63.7% CMA_cc+ 1159.1 New Entry

2 Portugal 60.5% CMA_ccc- 1135.8 2 (No change)

3 Pakistan 46.4% CMA_ccc+ 829.6 3 (No Change)

4 Argentina 45.9% CMA_ccc+ 812.1 5 (Down 1)

5 Ukraine 45.6% CMA_ccc+ 855.2 7 (Down 2)

6 Venezuela 41.5% CMA_ccc+ 715.6 4 (Up 2)

7 Ireland 39.5% CMA_b- 579.2 6 (Up 1)

8 Egypt 32.8% CMA_b 552.0 8 (No change)

9 Hungary 32.2% CMA_b 544.3 9 (No change)

10 Spain 32.1% CMA_b 430.9 New Entry

Note: CPD is a function of the recovery level which varies according the several factors and distance to default, e.g.

emerging markets assume 25%. Note that CMA historical data for Cyprus starts on 16th March 2012.

Greece finally restructures its debt and is no longer in the top 10 risky table – however the sovereign remains risky

as shown in the new bonds in CMA Datavision™ Bonds file. Cyprus replaces Greece and tops the 10 most risky.

Spain enters the table in 10th position as the spreads widen 431bps topping the worst quarterly performance table.

■ Portugal ends a volatile quarter where spreads approached 1,800bps.

■ Egypt ends the quarter 70bps tighter ahead of the presidential elections in Q2 2012.

■ Spreads in Italy closed below 400bps to 390bps down from 486bps - this positive movement for the

Eurozone overall was offset by the widening of Spain.

■ Cost of protection against default in Venezuela continues to improve this quarter as it closes to 729bps

with one year at 345bps and a short term implied rating of CMA_bb-.

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Credit Risk Report


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Top 10 Least Risky Sovereign Credits

Position

Q1

Country 5 Year CPD (%) CMA Implied

Rating

5 Year CDS Mid

(bps)

Previous

Ranking

1 Norway 2.0% CMA_aaa 22.5 1 (No change)

2 USA 2.7% CMA_aaa 30.0 2 (No change)

3 Switzerland 3.6% CMA_aaa 41.1 3 (No change)

4 Sweden 3.8% CMA_aaa 43.6 4 (No change)

5 Hong Kong 5.4% CMA_aa+ 61.7 7 (Up 2)

6 UK 5.6% CMA_aa+ 63.5 9 (Up 3)

7 Finland 5.7% CMA_aa+ 65.3 5 (Down 2)

8 Australia 6.2% CMA_aa 72.2 New Entry

9 Chile 6.3% CMA_aa 91.6 New Entry

10 Germany 6.4% CMA_aa 73.3 10 (No change)

A good quarter for the World’s least risky sovereigns, as they begin to revert back to levels seen prior to the

Eurozone debt crisis.

■ Norway keeps it’s spot as the least risky sovereign and returning to levels in the low 20’s.

■ The UK had a good quarter moving up three positions tightening 40% over the quarter.

■ Spreads in Germany improve a more modest 25%, perhaps reflecting continuing concerns over the cost of

protection in Portugal remaining high and Spain entering the top 10 most risky.

■ New Zealand exits the top 10 least risky, replaced by Chile whose spreads close at 92bps from 132bps.

Credit Risk Report


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Best Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change

Country 5yr Mid 30th

Dec (bps) 5yr Mid 30th

Mar (bps) Change %

Norway 44.8 22.5 -49.7%

Sweden 77.2 43.6 -43.5%

Switzerland 68.0 41.1 -39.6%

USA 48.9 30.0 -38.7%

Lithuania 363.1 233.1 -35.8%

■ Norway ends the year as the least risky Sovereign at 22bps with the cost of debt insurance halving during

the quarter.

■ A continuing commitment to low interest rates and signs of growth in the economy helped the USA return

to CMA_aaa rating as spreads end the quarter at 30bps from 50bps.

■ A very good quarter for investors long risk in Lithuania as spreads tighten to 232bps and an implied

CMA_bbb+ rating.

Credit Risk Report


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Worst Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change

Country 5yr Mid 30th

Dec

(bps)

5yr Mid 30th

Mar

(bps)

Change %

Spain 379.0 430.9 13.7%

Ukraine 855.5 855.2 0.0%

Portugal 1155.9 1135.8 -1.7%

Netherlands 117.9 114.9 -2.5%

Lebanon 465.5 446.3 -4.1%

■ Q1 2012 was a good quarter as the cost of global credit protection overall comes down with only Spain

wider on the quarter.

■ The market will keep a close eye on Spain and Portugal over the quarter - with concerns that Portugal

could be tempted to follow the route of Greece and restructure its debt.

Credit Risk Report


9

Regional Focus: USA & UK

It was a very good quarter for the USA and UK, as spreads tighten 40% for both countries.

■ The raising of taxes and stricter government controls on spending in the UK has helped improve the cost of

debt insurance. However growth remains sluggish and the economy weak resulting in a negative outlook

by Moodys, the rating agency.

■ The USA reported a 3% growth in Q4 2011, but slower growth in the Q1 2012, has prompted a continued

commitment to low interest rates in a drive to return to 3% growth in the country’s $15 trillion GDP.

Credit Risk Report


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Regional Focus: Western Europe

Spreads in Western Europe tightened overall as Greece finally restructures its debt, triggering the first debt default

in the Eurozone and the ECB provided a €800 billion lending facility.

■ ISDA declared a credit event in Greece – an event that already priced into the CDS market and perhaps

came as a relief to the holders of around €2 billion of notional contracts outstanding. However, the timing of

the auction was not ideal as it came after the new bonds were trading with the new longer dated bonds

trading at similar prices to the old. Nevertheless, the auction was completed successfully settling at

21.5bps, with the market needing to review the process to ensure less uncertainty in any future auctions.

(See Appendix for list of all Greece Bond prices as of 30th March 2012.)

■ Concerns Portugal could follow a similar path to Greece, saw the cost of protection peak to nearly

1,800bps before settling back to levels at the beginning of the quarter.

■ The rally in Italy and Spain was followed by a gradual widening in Spain from 350bps to 431bps and Italy

from 350 to 390bps towards the end of the quarter. Europe should perhaps keep a close eye on this trend

and the cost of protection in Portugal to help avoid another crisis from occurring.

■ Cyprus replaces Greece in the Index Roll.

Credit Risk Report


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Credit Risk Report


12

Regional Focus: Emerging Europe

Emerging Europe tightened 25% on average as risks of a contagion spreading across the wider European region

and Scandinavia recede.

■ Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia all tighten by around 35%.

■ Implied ratings remain virtually unchanged as the overall group tightens in also.

■ Ukraine spreads tighten to 840bps only 2% tighter on the quarter but it was enough to see the implied

rating drop one notch to CMA_ccc+.

Credit Risk Report


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Regional Focus: Scandinavia & Nordic Region

■ Sweden and Norway improve 44% and 49% respectively, Norway buoyed by higher oil prices.

■ Denmark ended the session 12% tighter but implied rating dropping to CMA_a from CMA_aa as it fails to

keep pace with the rally in its peers.

■ The Icelandic economy continues it steady improvement closing the quarter below 300bps, at 277bps.

Credit Risk Report


14

Regional Focus: Middle East & North Africa

■ CDS prices in the Middle East and North Africa improved 11% overall with Dubai and South Africa

improving around 20%.

■ Egypt finished the quarter at 548bps ahead of presidential elections in May.

Credit Risk Report


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Regional Focus: Asia

CDS prices improved 17% in the region aided by Europe and signs of growth in the USA.

■ Japan tops the region with a 31% improvement to just below 100bps from 142bps as the economy

continues to improve, closely followed by Vietnam at 27%.

■ South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines all tighten around 20%.

■ Spreads in India tighten aggressively in the first half of the quarter but fail to break through the 300bps

level. The second half saw spreads widen out again perhaps on growth concerns, ending the quarter only

5% tighter.

■ Kazakhstan improved nearly 100bp to end the quarter at 207bps.

Note: State Bank of India is used as proxy for India.

Credit Risk Report


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Credit Risk Report


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Regional Focus: Australia & New Zealand

■ Australia and New Zealand tighten in highly correlated path this quarter.

Credit Risk Report


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Regional Focus: Central & South America

CDS spreads in Central and South America rallied strongly this quarter improving 22% overall.

■ Peru tops the region with tightening of 27%.

■ Argentina tests the 700bps level, only to widen again towards the end of the quarter.

■ Cost of protection against default in Venezuela continues to improve this quarter as it closes to 729bps

with one year at 345bps (short term implied rating CMA_bb-).

■ Chile enters the top 10 least risky global sovereign credits.

Credit Risk Report


19

Global Ranking by CPD

Country CPD (%) 5yr Mid (bps) CMA Implied Rating Q1 CMA Implied Rating Q4

Cyprus 63.7% 1159.1 CMA_cc+

Portugal 60.5% 1135.8 CMA_ccc- CMA_ccc-

Pakistan 46.4% 829.6 CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+

Argentina 45.9% 812.1 CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+

Ukraine 45.6% 855.2 CMA_ccc+ CMA_b-

Venezuela 41.5% 715.6 CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+

Ireland 39.5% 579.2 CMA_b- CMA_ccc+

Egypt 32.8% 552.0 CMA_b CMA_b+

Hungary 32.2% 544.3 CMA_b CMA_b+

Spain 32.1% 430.9 CMA_b CMA_bb

Italy 29.7% 390.3 CMA_b+ CMA_b+

Lebanon 27.5% 446.3 CMA_b+ CMA_bb

India (Proxy) 27.1% 342.5 CMA_b+ CMA_bb-

Croatia 25.2% 402.5 CMA_bb- CMA_bb-

Iraq 24.1% 382.5 CMA_bb- CMA_bb

Vietnam 22.6% 284.3 CMA_bb CMA_bb

Bahrain 22.3% 352.1 CMA_bb CMA_bb+

Dubai 22.1% 342.9 CMA_bb CMA_bb

Iceland 22.0% 274.8 CMA_bb CMA_bb+

Slovenia 20.5% 321.7 CMA_bb+ CMA_bb+

Romania 20.3% 314.2 CMA_bb+ CMA_bb

Belgium 18.7% 230.5 CMA_bb+ CMA_bb+

Bulgaria 17.3% 262.5 CMA_bbb- CMA_bb+

Costa Rica 16.8% 252.7 CMA_bbb- CMA_bbb

Tunisia (Proxy) 16.2% 246.5 CMA_bbb- CMA_bbb+

Morocco 15.8% 241.3 CMA_bbb- CMA_bbb+

Latvia 15.5% 233.1 CMA_bbb CMA_bbb-

Lithuania 15.5% 233.1 CMA_bbb CMA_bb+

Turkey 15.1% 226.4 CMA_bbb CMA_bbb

Slovakia 14.3% 214.8 CMA_bbb CMA_bbb

France 13.9% 165.8 CMA_bbb CMA_bbb+

Indonesia 13.9% 164.6 CMA_bbb CMA_a-

Kazakhstan 13.7% 203.2 CMA_bbb CMA_bbb

Austria 12.9% 153.4 CMA_bbb+ CMA_a-

Israel 12.5% 186.2 CMA_bbb+ CMA_a

Russia 12.4% 183.4 CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb+

Philippines 12.2% 142.6 CMA_bbb+ CMA_a

Poland 12.1% 178.9 CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb

Thailand 11.4% 133.2 CMA_a- CMA_a-

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South Africa 10.9% 159.4 CMA_a- CMA_a

South Korea 10.5% 122.8 CMA_a- CMA_a

Netherlands 9.8% 114.9 CMA_a CMA_aa

China 9.7% 112.6 CMA_a CMA_a+

Denmark 9.6% 113.1 CMA_a CMA_aa-

Uruguay 9.3% 136.8 CMA_a CMA_a+

Malaysia 9.0% 105.0 CMA_a+ CMA_a+

Brazil 8.3% 120.4 CMA_a+ CMA_aa-

Peru 8.3% 120.4 CMA_a+ CMA_a+

Qatar 8.2% 118.8 CMA_a+ CMA_aa

Saudi Arabia 8.1% 118.4 CMA_a+ CMA_aa

Abu Dhabi 8.1% 117.7 CMA_a+ CMA_aa

Mexico 8.1% 117.0 CMA_a+ CMA_aa-

Japan 8.0% 99.8 CMA_a+ CMA_aa-

Estonia 7.8% 114.0 CMA_aa- CMA_a+

Czech Republic 7.8% 113.0 CMA_aa- CMA_a+

Panama 7.5% 109.5 CMA_aa- CMA_aa-

Colombia 7.4% 107.9 CMA_aa- CMA_aa-

New Zealand 6.7% 77.7 CMA_aa CMA_aa

Germany 6.4% 73.3 CMA_aa CMA_aa

Chile 6.3% 91.6 CMA_aa CMA_aa

Australia 6.2% 72.2 CMA_aa CMA_aa

Finland 5.7% 65.3 CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+

UK 5.6% 63.5 CMA_aa+ CMA_aa

Hong Kong 5.4% 61.7 CMA_aa+ CMA_aa

Sweden 3.8% 43.6 CMA_aaa CMA_aa+

Switzerland 3.6% 41.1 CMA_aaa CMA_aa+

USA 2.7% 30.0 CMA_aaa CMA_aa+

Norway 2.0% 22.5 CMA_aaa CMA_aaa

Credit Risk Report


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CMA Datavision™ Greek Bonds

The table below shows 30th March 2012 prices for Greece Bonds.

Entity Name Cur Cpn Matures Type Price

Type

Mid Bid/Ask

FR0000489676 EUR 4.915 13/09/2012 Fixed Cash 42 2

GR0106007835 EUR 4.915 13/09/2012 Fixed Cash 42 2

XS0208636091 EUR 3.5625 21/12/2012 Fixed Cash 41 2

XS0354223827 EUR 4.057 26/03/2013 Fixed Cash 38.5 3

XS0165688648 EUR 4.495 02/04/2013 Fixed Cash 36 2

GR0108010498 EUR 4.495 02/04/2013 Fixed Cash 36 2

XS0142390904 EUR 5.46 30/01/2014 Fixed Cash 34 2

FR0010027557 EUR 4.68 29/10/2015 Fixed Cash 38.5 5

XS0165956672 EUR 4.59 08/04/2016 Fixed Cash 32 4

XS0215169706 EUR 4.028 17/03/2017 Fixed Cash 33 2

XS0160208772 EUR 5.014 27/12/2017 Fixed Cash 26.5 5

XS0280601658 EUR 4.218 20/12/2019 Fixed Cash 31.5 3

GR0128010676 EUR 2 24/02/2023 Fixed Cash 24.5 1

GR0128011682 EUR 2 24/02/2024 Fixed Cash 23.5 1

GR0128012698 EUR 2 24/02/2025 Fixed Cash 22.5 1

GR0128013704 EUR 2 24/02/2026 Fixed Cash 21.5 1

GR0128004612 EUR 5.3 20/03/2026 Fixed Cash 22 1

GR0128008654 EUR 5.3 20/03/2026 Fixed Cash 22 1

GR0133004177 EUR 5.3 20/03/2026 Fixed Cash 22 1

GR0128014710 EUR 2 24/02/2027 Fixed Cash 21 1

GR0133006198 EUR 2 24/02/2028 Fixed Cash 20.5 1

XS0110307930 EUR 6.14 14/04/2028 Fixed Cash 20.25 0.6

GR0133007204 EUR 2 24/02/2029 Fixed Cash 20 1

GR0133008210 EUR 2 24/02/2030 Fixed Cash 20 1

GR0338002547 EUR 2.3 25/07/2030 Fixed Cash 19.6 1

GR0133005182 EUR 2.3 25/07/2030 Fixed Cash 19.6 1

GR0338003552 EUR 2.3 25/07/2030 Fixed Cash 19.6 1

GR0133009226 EUR 2 24/02/2031 Fixed Cash 19.75 1

GR0133010232 EUR 2 24/02/2032 Fixed Cash 19.5 1

GR0138005716 EUR 2 24/02/2033 Fixed Cash 19.5 1

GR0138006722 EUR 2 24/02/2034 Fixed Cash 19.5 1

XS0191352847 EUR 5.2 17/07/2034 Fixed Cash 18.95 1.125

GR0138007738 EUR 2 24/02/2035 Fixed Cash 19.25 1

GR0138008744 EUR 2 24/02/2036 Fixed Cash 19.25 1

GR0138009759 EUR 2 24/02/2037 Fixed Cash 19 1

GR0138001673 EUR 4.5 20/09/2037 Fixed Cash 18.9 1.1875

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GR0138004701 EUR 4.5 20/09/2037 Fixed Cash 18.9 1.1875

GR0138003695 EUR 4.5 20/09/2037 Fixed Cash 18.9 1.1875

GR0138010765 EUR 2 24/02/2038 Fixed Cash 19 1

GR0138011771 EUR 2 24/02/2039 Fixed Cash 19 1

GR0138012787 EUR 2 24/02/2040 Fixed Cash 18.75 1

GR0138013793 EUR 2 24/02/2041 Fixed Cash 18.75 1

GR0138014809 EUR 2 24/02/2042 Fixed Cash 18.75 1

GRR000000010 EUR 0 15/10/2042 Fixed Cash 0.6 0.1

JP530005AR32 JPY 7.35 03/03/2015 Fixed Cash 38.5 5

JP530000CS83 JPY 5 22/08/2016 Fixed Cash 33.5 5

XS0071095045 JPY 4.5 08/11/2016 Fixed Cash 38.5 5

JP530005ASC0 JPY 4.5 06/12/2016 Fixed Cash 28.5 5

GR0128010676 EUR 2 24/02/2023 Fixed Yield 20.5745 0.613




















XS0165956672 EUR 4.59 08/04/2016 Fixed Z-Spread 4116.5 503

XS0191352847 EUR 5.2 17/07/2034 Fixed Z-Spread 2190.5 499

JP530000CS83 JPY 5 22/08/2016 Fixed Z-Spread 3572.5 483

XS0147393861 EUR 1.137 15/05/2012 Float Cash 57.5 5

XS0260024277 EUR 1.688 05/07/2018 Float Cash 24 2

XS0192416617 EUR 1.892 10/05/2034 Float Cash 24.5 5

XS0147393861 EUR 1.137 15/05/2012 Float Z-Spread 1582 444

Credit Risk Report


23

About CMA & Contact Details

CMA, the world’s leading source of independent, accurate OTC credit market data, has unrivalled access to

information about what is actually happening in the CDS markets. It combines this unmatched breadth and depth of

pricing data with market-leading technology to deliver clear and valuable information to financial institutions around

the world.

CMA is a wholly owned subsidiary of CME Group (www.cmegroup.com), the world’s largest and most diverse

derivatives exchange.

CMA DatavisionTM

CMA DatavisionTM

is our intraday and end-of-day CDS pricing service, delivering independent, timely and accurate

consensus-based pricing on OTC credit instruments. CMA provides pricing on approximately 1,400 single name

CDS and CDS indices.

If you have questions or comments about this report, or wish to learn more about the products and services that

CMA offers, please contact us:

London New York 4

th Floor

One New Change

London

EC4M 9AF

+44 (0)20 3379 3500

370 Lexington Avenue

Suite 200

New York

NY 10017

+1 (646) 351 8787

Follow CMA on Twitter for intra-day updates: Twitter.com/CMANews

Usage, Redistribution & Publication of Data

For more information please contact us:

Telephone: +44 (0)20 3379 3500

Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer & Disclosure

Please note that CMA does not give investment advice and no part of the above article provided by the author or

CMA shall constitute advice on the merits of buying, selling, subscribing for or underwriting a particular investment.

The ideas and or opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of

CMA. CMA does not guarantee the accuracy of the factual content contained in this article and no advice or

information, obtained by you through or from the enclosed material shall create any warranty or other obligation

between you and the author and/or CMA.

Neither the author, nor CMA has any investments in the OTC credit markets.

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