richmond virginia real estate market report january 2015

Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties

www.RichmondHousingToday.com

The Greater Richmond Real

Estate MarketLacy Williams

Joyner Fine Properties

January 2015

11



Background

• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market.

• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.

• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in January 2015for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.

22

http://www.realtor.org/

http://www.realtor.org/



National

Economic Data

33



8 Million Lost, 10 Million Gained

44

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

During the recession, we lost 8 million jobs. We have gained 10 million back in 6 years since the start of the recession in 2008.

However, because our population is growing, we need to add about 1 million jobs to stay even. So we should have gained an

additional 6 million jobs during this period so there is still job recovery needed. In addition, some of the new jobs are not equivalent to

the jobs that were lost-there are more jobs in the service industry and fewer professional jobs.

12400

13400

13200

13000

12800

12600

13800

13600

14000

Job

s in

Th

ou

san

ds

Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14



55

Employment Rate


The Employment Rate is the number of people working. It is a better indicator of the economy than the Unemployment Rate

which has to do with the number of people actually looking for a job. The Unemployment Rate does not include unemployed

people who have quit looking for jobs. The Employment Rate is significantly down since before the 2008 Recession.



Jobs to Polulation Ratio

66


The Jobs to Population Ratio shows that s smaller percentage of the population is working than any time back to the early

1980s.



77

Job Change By State




88

Household Formation

There has been a decrease of 1 million households since 2007.

Number of Households




99

Rentals Have Had Huge Increases

Number of Rental Units


There has been an increase in rental households since 2004. Once these people start buying houses,

the real estate market will greatly improve..



1010

Homeownership Rate

Lowest in 30+ years!.

US Homeownership Rate




1111

First Time Homebuyer Share

Lowest rate since 1987!


Percentage of Sales that are First Time Homebuyers

The percentage of First Time homebuyers has remained constant

since 2010 but it is expected to start to increase.




1212

Student Loan Debt ($Billions)

Student Loan Debt


One factor affecting First Time Homebuyers is Student Loan debt

which has been increasing for the past 8 years.



The Interest Rate

1313



4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

Where Are They

GOING?2015 Projections

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Where Have They

Been?2014

Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/15



QuarterFannie

Mae

Freddie

MacMBA NAR

Average of all four

2015 1Q 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.25%

2015 2Q 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.38%

2015 3Q 4.2% 4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 4.65%

2015 4Q 4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% 4.88%

Mortgage Rate ProjectionsSource: Keeping Current Matters 1/15

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National

Association of Realtors are all projecting that mortgage rates will increase in 2015.



6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079

5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050

5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022

5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994

5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966

4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939

4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912

$ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000

-2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

Buyer’s Purchasing PowerR

AT

E

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

The projected increase in the interest rate will cause

the cost of a house to grow. A buyer who can afford

an $200,000 house today will only be able to afford a

$180,000 house if the interest rate rises one percent.Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14



17

All-Cash Buyers Have Stayed High … even when mortgages are cheap

17

(Cash share as % of total home sales) Source: National Association of Realtors

Even though the interest rate is historically low, the number of cash buyers has stayed well above the historical average.



National

Number of Sales

1818



90

95

100

105

110

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 12/2014

Pending Home Sales


Nationwide sales have been strong.



by Price RangeNAR 10/2014

% Change in Sales from Last Year


One reason that there are been fewer sales in the lowerprice points is that Distressed sales are down

dramatically and Distressed sales tend to be in the lower price points. (See Distressed Property Slide)



Foreclosures by Stateas a percentage of all homes with a mortgage




Jan2012

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

35%

9%

14%

January 2012 - Today

NAR 12/2014

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/15

Distressed Property sales include foreclosures and short

sales. These have gone from 35% of all sales in January

2012 to only 9% of all sales today.



2323

Single Family Housing Starts

Housing Starts

200

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

1600

Ho

usi

ng

Sta

rts

in T

ho

usa

nd

s


New Construction is still significantly down. The

Construction industry creates many jobs. This is an

area that is expected to improve in 2015.



2424

Multi Family Housing

Multi-Family Housing Starts

Ho

usi

ng

Sta

rts

in T

ho

usa

nd

s Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14

There has been improvement in multi-family construction.



Vacation Home Sales

2525


The second home market has also been improving.



5.4

5.35.33

5.92

5.65.66

NAR Freddie Mac MBA

2014 2015

2014 Home Sales & 2015 Projections

(Existing & New Construction in millions)


The National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Associations are all projecting

an increase in the number of sales in 2015.



Inventory of Homes

2727



The Impact of Monthly Housing

Inventory on Home Prices

LESS THAN

6 MONTHS

BETWEEN

6 MONTHS

GREATER THAN

7 MONTHS

SELLERS

MARKETHomes prices

will appreciate

NEUTRAL

MARKETHomes prices

will only

appreciate with

inflation

BUYERS

MARKETHomes prices

will depreciate


Inventory is the average mount of time it takes to sell a house. A balanced market is an inventory of about 6 months. If inventory is

less than 6 months, A Sellers market occurs with appreciating prices. If inventory is above 7 months, A Buyers market occurs with

depreciating prices. .



Inventory By Week and Year


The inventory of houses has been dropping for four straight years with a slight uptick in 2014.



4.6

4.95.0

5.2

5.7

5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

5.3

5.1 5.1

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 12/2014


Nationwide inventory is at 5.1 months which is better than a normal market. Inventory dropped in the later half of 2014.



Prices

3131



3232

Median Home Price

realtor.org 5/2014

*projected


Nationwide, prices have risen for three straight years.



-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

App/Dep 4.2% 4.5% 3.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.9% -1.6% -8.9% -7.0% 0.4% -1.8% 1.9% 6.8% 3.0%

Annual Home Price Gains

Wall Street Journal

Source: Keeping Current Matters 8 /14

This graph shows the yearly change in prices. There was increased activity and prices in 2010 due to a

Homeowners tax credit. We did not see this increase in the Richmond Market.



12-Month Home Price Change

CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014




Prices Back to 2005 1Q Prices

Case Shiller 8/2014

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nationwide, prices are at 1Q 2005 prices..




Prices & Time Since The Peak

CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014


In some states, prices are still significantly down from

peak prices.



3737 Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q

PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation


A panel of 100 leading housing experts has projected normal price rises for the next five years.



Greater Richmond

Housing Market

3838

Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of

Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,

Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central

Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)



Market Indicator #1:

Sales are Up!!!

3939



12737

15262 15533

16450

15074

12644

94829069

85749051

1017710545

11400

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

No

of

Clo

sed

Sale

s

Year

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Year

Number of Single Family House Sales by Year

4040

The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half

of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than

2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2013, sales increased 23%. And Sales in

2014 were 8% higher than 2013!!

Source: CVRMLS data 1/15/15



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Mo

nth

ly S

ale

s

Month

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales

2014 sales have been slightly more than 2013 sales with monthly variations. Note: the sharp drop in sales in July 2010 was

when the Federal Homebuyers tax credit expired. The tax credit was in effect in the first half of 2010.

Source: CVRMLS data



4242

The first quarter of 2014 was

virtually even with the number

of sales than the first quarter of

2013 in spite of unusually cold

and snowy weather.

Greater Richmond First and Second

Quarter Single Family Sales

2014 second quarter sales were higher than

2010 second quarter sales when there was a

Federal Homebuyers tax credit.

Source: CVRMLS data

31612892

2088

1487 16121801 1924

2057 2047

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales in First Quarter

4567

3919

29102533

30132657

31353390 3407

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales



Greater Richmond Single Family Third

and Fourth Quarter Sales

4343

Sales in the third quarter of 2014

were slightly lower than 2013

sales but are 60% higher than

2010 third quarter sales.

Sales in the fourth quarter of

2014 were higher than the past

seven years and 8% higher than

2012 fourth quarter sales.

Source: CVRMLS data

3222

2362

1707

2357

18472134

23472547 2672

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth Quarter Sales

4111

3421

25262692

1999

25082793

3304 3274

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Clo

sed

Sale

s

Year

Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales



Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond

4444

In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, sales have increased

for three years and 2014 sales were just under 2013 sales.


914

1147

1383

1761

2035

1757

1382

11541093

1201

1420

1623 1587

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales by Year



Condominium Sales:

First and Second Quarters

4545

Condominium sales in the first quarter

of 2014 were down from the first

quarter of 2013 but still higher than

2009, 2010 and 2011. The first quarter

of 2014 had very cold and snowy

weather that affected the real estate

market.

Condominium sales in the second

quarter of 2014 were higher than the

past 6 years including 2010 when there

was a Federal homebuyers tax credit.

Source: CVRMLS data

428

376

310

190 189

242275

298280

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales

601

529

420

324

431

344

402

464 478

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium Sales for Second Quarter



4646

Source: CVRMLS data

Third quarter sales in 2014 were slightly

lower than 2013 third quarter sales.. Third

quarter sales in 2013 were 103% higher

than third quarter sales in 2010.

Sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were

23 less than the fourth quarter of 2013

and 65% more sales than the fourth

quarter of 2010. Note that there was a

Homebuyers tax credit in the later part of

2009

Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters

578499

355 345

219

325393

466 457

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condominium/Townhouse Sales

424

339

233288

225

287338

395 372

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

No

of

Clo

sed

Sale

s

Year

Fourth Quarter Greater Richmond Condominium Sales



Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales

4747

Source: CVRMLS 1/15/15

Greater Richmond Year Over Year Sales By

Price Range

1/13-

12/13

1/14-

12-14 Change

0-$249,000 7048 6710 -4.80%

$250,000-$499,000 3508 3801 8.35%

$500,000-$749,000 623 617 -0.96%

$750,000-$999,999 125 164 31.20%

$1,000,000+ 49 73 48.98%

Single Family and Condominium/Townhouse

sales by price range show that there was a

decline in the number of sales at the lower

price points. This is thought to be due to the

decline of Distressed Sales. Note that in both

Single Family and Townhouse.Condo sales,

there is a dramatic increase in sales at the

highest price points.

Greater Richmond Year Over Year

Condo/Townhouse Sales By Price Range

1/13-

12/13

1/14-

12/14 Change

0-249,000 1102 1049 -4.81%

$250,000-$499,000 447 451 0.89%

$500,000+ 68 83 22.06%



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2095 22532018

14671116

678 730 598 668870 882

342402

550

587

600

263360

256295

324 287

No

of

Clo

sin

gs

(Jan

-Ju

n)

Year

New Home Closings in Richmond Area Market (January-June by Year)

Condo/Townhouse

Single Family

25682437

2655

2054

1716

941854

963

1194 11891090

No of Closings: 2% No of permits: 8% New Home Price: 7%

New Home Sales

4848

Source: HBAR




Inventory is Low!!!

4949



Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond

5050

The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the

past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and

has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago. 2014 inventory

was very similar to 2013 inventory. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory.

Source: CVRMLS data0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0


Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



4.0 3.9

4.8

5.7

7.58.1

4.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Richmond Henrico Chesterfield Hanover Goochland Powhatan AllRichmond

Mo

nth

s o

f In

ven

tory

Area

Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory By Area 10/23/14

Single Family Inventory by Area

5151


The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a Seller’s

market. Hanover is a normal market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and fewer

sales and are still Buyer’s markets.. The red line represents a normal market.



5252

Townhouse/Condominium Inventory by Month

The inventory of townhouses and condominiums started dropping in the second half of 2011 and continued to drop

through 2013. 2014 inventory was very close to 2013 inventory.

Source: CVRMLS data

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0


Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015



Single Family Inventory by Price Range

Condominium Inventory By Price

Range

Price RangeInventory

(Months)

0-249,000 4.1

$250,000-$499,000 3.5

$500,000+ 5.2

Single Family Inventory by Price

Range

Price Range

Inventory

(Months)

0-$249,000 3.8

$250,000-$499,000 4.6

$500,000-$749,000 6.9

$750,000-$999,999 9.2

$1,000,000+ 10.8

5353


The inventory of houses and condominiums is lowest at the lower price points. There are clearly still challenges

for Sellers at the higher price points. Houses in the higher price points must be competitively priced to sell.




Prices are rising!!!

5454



$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

$290,000

$310,000

$330,000

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price

5555

The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. The average price can be influenced by a few very

large sales. But there is clearly an upward trend since 2012.

Single Family Average Sales Price




Single Family Price Per Square Foot

5656

Price per square foot is a better indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward since 2012.

There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.


$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

$130.00

$140.00

$150.00

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Greater Richmond Single Family Average Price Per Square Foot



$92.37

$99.65

$107.60

$123.38

$135.82$139.64

$132.43

$117.82

$112.24

$104.98 $106.16

$113.02$117.19

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

$130.00

$140.00

$150.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Single Family Price by Year

Single Family Price by Year

5757

Greater Richmond 2014 prices are 11.6% higher than 2011 prices and 3.6% higher than 2013 prices. With a 25%

decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on

this graph. 2014 prices are 16%% below 2007 prices.

Source: CVRMLS data



Single Family Year over Year Price Change

5858

Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to

increase in 2013 and 2014.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.

In 2014, prices were up 3.7%.


7.9% 8.0%

14.7%

10.1%

2.8%

-5.2%

-11.0%

-4.7%-6.5%

1.1%

6.5%

3.7%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Richmond Single Family Percent Change in Price Per Sq Ft Year to Year


www.RichmondHousingToday.comPrices for Condominiums

5959

Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past

three years.


$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

$130.00

$140.00

$150.00

$160.00

$170.00

$180.00

Jan

-06

May-0

6

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May-0

7

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May-0

8

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May-0

9

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May-1

0

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4

Sep

-14

Pri

ce P

er

Sq

Ft

for

Clo

sed

Sale

s

Month

Price Per Square Foot for Condominium/Townhouse Sales



$90.84

$100.03

$113.32

$133.49

$149.49$154.00$152.70

$135.62$131.55

$119.16$121.13

$130.41

$138.55

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

$130.00

$140.00

$150.00

$160.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pri

ce P

er

Sq

uare

Fo

ot

Year

Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Prices

Condominium/Townhouse Prices

6060

Condominium prices in 2014 were 6.2% higher than 2013 and 15.8% higher than 2011 prices. There was a 23%

decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Current prices are above 2005 prices as shown in the red line..

Source: CVRMLS data 11/414


www.RichmondHousingToday.comRichmond Real Estate Areas

6161

The Richmond Association of

Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas

as shown in the graph. The following

analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,

30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,

62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.



179

53

252

156134 145

286305

204

149

271

157

410

571

200

476

180

231

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

No

of

Acti

ve L

isti

ng

s

Area

Single Family Active Listings By Area (10/23/14)

Active Single Family Listings By Area

6262

The number of active listings by area as shown. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of

homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.




$252,8

52

$421,

089

$344,8

51

$423,8

78

$15

8,5

74

$15

1,989

$333,7

90

$301,

858

$15

2,0

09

$11

4,8

78

$236,5

42

$65,7

12

$18

4,2

40

$225,9

14

$205,9

08

$269,6

43

$344,6

10

$277,5

49

$254,2

23

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

10 20

22

24

30

32

34

36

40

42

44

50

52

54

60

62

64

66

All

Ric

hm

on

d

Ave

rag

eS

ale

s P

rice

Area

Average Sales Price By Area (10/13-9/14)

Single Family Greater Richmond

Sales Price by Area

6363

Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the

lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond for 2014 through June 10th is $248,641

shown by the red line.

Source: CVRMLS data 10/2314



Greater Richmond Single Family Price per

Square Foot 10/13-9/14)

6464Source: CVRMLS data 10/23/14

$13

6.5

4

$18

8.7

8

$14

0.0

6

$13

4.0

3

$87.9

0

$96.3

3

$13

1.89

$12

2.4

3

$87.4

4

$72.9

6

$11

2.2

9

$48.3

9

$90.9

0

$10

1.91

$10

7.1

8

$11

0.3

5

$11

8.2

6

$12

1.11

$11

6.1

6

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

Pri

ce p

er S

quar

e F

oo

t

Area

Price per Square Foot By Area (10/13-9/14)



3.2

2.02.8

7.5

4.5 4.43.9

6.0 5.7

4.2

5.3

8.3

5.0 5.34.3 4.3 4.3

8.1

4.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Mo

nth

s o

f In

ven

tory

Area

Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory by Area

Inventory of Single Family Houses

6565

As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of

houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher

supplies of houses. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it still has a higher inventory. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 4.4

months which is better than an normal market.




Top 10 Greater Richmond 2014 Single

Family Sales

Address Area Sales Price Sq Ft

Price/

Square/

Foot

1 5901 River Rd 22 $3,622,506 9023 $401.47

2 12671 River Rd 22 $3,450,000 10113 $341.15

3 1000 Huguenot Trail 66 $3,045,000 6242 $487.82

4 12001 N Enon Church Rd 52 $2,000,000 9971 $200.58

5 210 Virginia Ave 20 $1,950,000 5946 $327.95

6 745 River Rd West 24 $1,900,000 6225 $305.22

7 455 Rivergate Dr 24 $1,895,000 6900 $274.64

8 12830 River Rd 54 $1,870,000 6000 $311.67

9 745 River Rd 24 $1,845,000 6300 $292.86

10 1180 Yellow Gate Ln 24 $1,765,975 7898 $223.60

6666




Top Condominium/Townhouse Sales in 2014

Address Area Subdivision Sale Price

Square

Ft

Price/Sq/

ft

1 1 Bankside Mews 40 Rocketts Landing $1,324,173 4260 $310.84

2 5225 Monument Ave 22 Monument Square $1,226,548 3378 $363.10

3 5217 Monument Ave 22 Monument Square $1,216,190 3378 $360.03



6 9505 Tatton Park 22 Grayson Hill $816,914 3200 $255.29

7 707 Southwark Ln 22 Grayson Hill $722,142 3700 $195.17

8 1119 Marney Ct 22 Grayson Hill $715,424 3500 $204.41

9 1121 Marney Ct 22 Grayson Hill $689,096 3500 $196.88

10 701 Southwark Ln 22 Grayson Hill $685,754 3700 $185.34

6767

Top 10 Greater Richmond 2014

Condominium/Townhouse Sales




Summary

6868



NAR Economic Forecast

6969Source: National Association of Realtors11/14

2013 2014

Likely

2015

Forecast

2016

Forecast

GDP Growth 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9%

Job Growth +2.3 M +2.5 M +2.5 M +2.6 M

CPI Inflation 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.3%

Consumer

Confidence

73 87 95 98

10-year

Treasury

2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 4.3%



NAR Housing Forecast

7070




2000 vs 2014

7171


+12%



Summary

• Sales are up

• Inventory is low

• Prices are rising

• The interest rate is rising

7272



[email protected]

Lacy Williams

Joyner Fine Properties

804-864-0316

7373