Returns to Public Investments in ECEC Oslo, Norway Implementing Policies for High Quality Early

Childhood Education and Care (ECEC)

January 24, 2012

Steve Barnett, PhD

Why invest in ECEC?

First 5 years lay foundations for language, academic abilities, habits & socio-emotional development

The window for change does not close after age 5, but “catch up” is costly

Worldwide more than 200 million children under 5 are failing to reach their developmental potential

Preschool interventions can enhance development and yield high economic returns

ECEC programs 0-5 in the US produce

long-term gains: 123 studies since 1960

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Treatment End Ages 5-10 Age >10

Eff

ects

(sd

)

Age at Follow-Up

All Designs HQ Designs HQ Programs

What determines cognitive gains?

Time of Follow-Up Negative

Research Design Quality Positive

Intentional Teaching Positive

Individualization Positive (small groups and 1 on 1)

Comprehensive Services Negative

n= 123 Studies

Nores and Barnett, 2009.

Effects of ECD Programs for 4 Outcomes by

Type of Program: Global Research

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Cognitive Social Schooling Health

Nutrition Cash Education

Key Lessons

Immediate impact should be twice the

size of the desired long-term impact

Multiple approaches effective

Education is a key component

Comprehensive services negative in

the US, positive elsewhere—results

depend on context/need

Potential Gains from ECEC Investments

Educational Success and Economic Productivity

Achievement test scores

Special education and grade repetition

High school graduation

Behavior problems, delinquency, and crime

Employment, earnings, and welfare dependency

Smoking, drug use, depression

Decreased Costs to Government

Schooling costs

Social services costs

Crime costs

Health care costs (teen pregnancy and smoking)

Economic Returns to Pre-K

for Disadvantaged Children

(In 2006 dollars, 3% discount rate) Cost Benefits B/C

Perry Pre-K $17,599 $284,086 16

Abecedarian $70,697 $176,284 2.5

Chicago $ 8,224 $ 83,511 10

Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and

policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Belfield, C., Nores, M., Barnett, W.S., & Schweinhart, L.J. (2006). The High/Scope Perry

Preschool Program. Journal of Human Resources, 41(1), 162-190; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool

education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144.

Perry Preschool Economic Effects

50%

60%

13%

62%

40%

7%

76%

82%

36%

76%

60%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Had savings Account at 40

Own Car at 40

Own Home at 27

Employeed at 40

Earned >$20K at 40

Earned >$20K at 27

Program No Program

Perry Preschool Crime Effects

34%

48%

55%

29%

27%

14%

33%

36%

7%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Drug Crime by 40

Violent Crime by 40

Arrested >5X by 40

Arrested >5X by 27

Discipline Problems ages 6-12

Program No Program

Key Lessons

Economic returns can be extremely high

Returns generalize across different kinds of programs but vary with effectiveness

Soft skills matter as much as hard skills

Enhanced Pre-K in Mauritius:

Results of a Randomized Trial

Intervention: Nutrition, Education, &Exercise

Ages 3-5, teacher-child ratio 1:5.5 v. 1:30

Outcomes: Decreased behavior problems,

conduct disorder, crime and mental illness at

ages 17-23

Malnourished children gained more

ECEC Investments Around the Globe

Argentina: Preschool increased achievement & self-control

(e.g., attention and behavior) in 3rd grade

Colombia: Nutrition, preschool education & health care

increased school age cognitive ability.

Germany: Preschool increased school success of migrants.

UK: High-quality preschool increased achievement.

Uruguay: Preschool increased educational attainment and

decreased dropout.

Economic Returns Globally

Estimated returns for middle- and low-income

countries are 6:1 to 18:1 from increased earnings alone.

A 25% increase in preschool education would yield an estimated return of US $10.6 billion globally.

The Lancet, Volume 378 (9799), p. 1276, 8 October 2011

Why Universal Public ECEC?

All children gain from better ECEC

Disadvantaged gain more

Peer effects for disadvantaged substantial

Best coverage of disadvantaged

Higher cost, but a larger net benefit

Effects of Universal ECEC

OECD test scores higher and more equal as

access approaches 100%

France: Ecole Maternelle increased income

Norway: universal child care increased earnings

and employment

Arg. Uru. and UK: universal preschool raised

long-term achievement

US states: universal Pre-K improved test scores

and executive function for all children

Denmark, Quebec: universal child care null or

negative effects on children--quality matters

Universal ECEC Returns Depend on

Policy and Practice

Returns to public ECEC investments depend on intensity and quality

Quality depends on teachers, class size, and classroom composition (peers)

Quality depends on leadership and a continuous improvement cycle with reflection & planning

Proven designs, high standards, adequate funding, and evaluation all help

3.9

19.9

34.6

27.7

12.1

1.70.0 0.24.2

32.2

47.4

16.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1.00-1.99 2.00-2.99 3.00-3.99 4.00-4.99 5.00-5.99 6.00-7.00

ECERS-R Score (1=minimal, 3=poor 5= good 7=excellent)

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Cla

ssro

om

s

00 Total (N = 232) 08 Total (N = 407)

NJ Raised Quality in Public and Private

Conclusions

ECEC can be a strong public investment

Increased achievement

Job and GDP growth

Decreased economic and educational inequality and fewer social problems

Universal ECEC can yield a higher return and greater equality than targeted ECEC

Intensity and quality are the keys to high returns

Continuous improvement cycles can assure quality

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