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TRANSCRIPT
Rethinking Bond Investing
Steve ShawFounder & President, BondSavvy
October 5, 2019
BondSavvy DisclaimerInvestorG2 LLC d/b/a BondSavvy is not registered as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (“Advisers Act”), or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction, nor is such registration contemplated.
Any screenshots, charts, or company trading symbols mentioned are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for the security.
As BondSavvy operates under the publishers’ exemption of the Advisers Act, the investments and strategies discussed in this presentation do not take into account an investor’s particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs. In making an investment decision, each investor must rely on its own examination of the investment, including the merits and risks involved, and should consult with its investment, legal, tax, accounting and other advisors and consultants.
The information in this presentation is based on data currently available to Shaw, as well as various expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs with respect to future developments, and is subject to change. Neither Shaw nor any other person or entityundertakes or otherwise assumes any obligation to update this information.
There are risks inherent in investing in bonds, which may adversely affect the bonds’ investment returns. These risks include, for example, market decline, interest rate fluctuations, inflation, default, liquidity, and asset class risks. There is no guarantee that investors will be able to meet their investment objectives. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors could lose all or part of their investment in a bond, particularly when investing in a high yield bond. Investing in bonds could also produce lower returns than investing in other securities. Investing in bonds does not constitute a complete investment program.
3
Let’s Challenge Long-Held Bond-Investing Beliefs
• Best to ‘leave it to the fund experts’ – bond investing is too hard
• Investors can’t beat the index
• Always hold bonds to maturity
• Build a laddered bond portfolio
• Focus on a bond’s yield not the price at which you buy
• Bonds only return 2-4%
• If ‘interest rates’ rise, bond prices ALWAYS fall
• A credit rating and a yield is all you need to evaluate a bond
4
Three Things You Need To Know Before Making an Investment
• The price
• How investment’s ‘value’ compares to similar investments
• The ongoing costs of the investment
5
With Bond Funds, You Know “None of the Above”
• Impossible to compare value of fund vs. fund
— Thousands of securities owned and always changing
— Funds priced to NAV not par value
— Few ‘pure-play’ bond funds make it difficult to compare relative performance
• High fund turnover drives high, undisclosed fees
6
Bond Funds: Impossible-to-assess prices and high turnover
Bond Fund Net Assets $BB* Sep 18 Price Turnover*
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund(VBTLX)
$229.3 11.03 54%
iShares AGG $58.0 112.20 146%
PIMCO Total Return $65.4 10.43 723%
MetWest Total Return $75.6 10.99 268%
*As of, or for the trailing twelve months ending, 12/31/18 for Vanguard, 2/28/19 for iShares AGG, 3/31/19 for PIMCO and 6/30/19 for MetWest
7
Advantage #1: Bonds vs. Bond Funds
Individual corporate bonds are all quoted as a percentage of their face value, enabling investors to begin assessing a bond’s relative value
“Par”“Discount” “Premium”
How quoted
Value per bond
100.00
$1,000
110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00
$1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400
90.0080.0070.00
$900$800$700
8
Other Advantages of Bonds vs. Bond Funds
• Increase returns by owning ‘All-Star’ bonds and not bond-fund benchwarmers
• Know exactly what you are investing in and invest based on your risk-return objectives
• Limited trading costs since you control turnover
• Greater opportunity for capital appreciation and improved tax efficiency
Bond funds also take the “fixed” out of “fixed income” with no set interest payments and maturity dates
The Benefits of Being Selective
9
‘Buy low and sell high’ can apply to bonds and generate returns higher than a bond’s YTM
Investment Date YTM
Annualized Return Through Sale
4.8%
10.1% 17.6%
6.4%Apple 3.850% ’43
Cablevision 5.875% ’22
Bond Bond Price: Investment Date vs. Sell Date
95.32
104.42
99.69
99.12
102.59
85.07
103.50
92.17
79.25
83.08
Apple 3.850% '43 (10/28/13)
Jefferies 6.500% '43 (1/19/17)
Microsoft 4.000% '55 (2/12/16)
Cablevision 5.875% '22 (12/8/15)
Toys R Us 10.375% '17 (2/12/16)
Price Appreciation of Selected Investments95.32
104.42
99.69
99.12
102.59
85.07
103.50
92.17
79.25
83.08
Apple 3.850% '43 (10/28/13)
Jefferies 6.500% '43 (1/19/17)
Microsoft 4.000% '55 (2/12/16)
Cablevision 5.875% '22 (12/8/15)
Toys R Us 10.375% '17 (2/12/16)
Price Appreciation of Selected Investments
For Illustrative purposes only
Toys R Us 10.375% ’17
95.32
104.42
98.91
99.12
102.59
85.07
103.50
92.17
79.25
83.08
Apple 3.850% '43 (10/28/13)
Jefferies 6.500% '43 (1/19/17)
Microsoft 4.000% '55 (2/12/16)
Cablevision 5.875% '22 (12/8/15)
Toys R Us 10.375% '17 (2/12/16)
Price Appreciation of Selected Investments
54.2%24.6%
Please note: Selling bonds prior to maturity will not always result in returns in excess of the bond’s Yield To Maturity.Selling prior to maturity may result in lower returns than if the bond was held through to maturity.
CreditInterest
Rate
Risk
Highest
Low
Low
Higher
Highest None
10/28/13 5/9/18
12/8/15 1/9/18
2/12/16 9/29/16
10
Attributes of Individual Corporate Bonds
Corporate bonds are issued by the same companies as stocks, but make up <1% of US investor portfolios in spite of their attributes:
• Contractual interest payments and return of principal
• Financial covenants that protect investors
• Senior to common and preferred stock
• Wide variety of risk/reward opportunities
• Many areas of corporate bond market performed well when stocks collapsed in Q4 2018
11
Individual corporate bonds can help to balance stock market volatility
JANUARY 3, 2019 PRICE PERFORMANCE
Falls 10% from $158.34 to
$142.09
Apple Stock Apple 3.45% ’45 Bonds
Unchanged at 88.50*
* Source: FINRA TRACE market data Images licensed from Getty Images.
12
How Not To Invest in Bonds
13
Advisors placing clients into bond funds…
Financial Advisor
1% Fee 0.1-1% Fee
Bond Funds & ETFsInvestor
…works well for everyone BUT the investor
14
Investing in large index funds – especially through an advisor – is a bad investment
-0.60%
1.60%
2.56%
-1.03%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
2015 2016 2017 2018
VBTLX Return Financial Advisor Fee All-in 'Return'
% Returns for Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares and Advisor Fee Impact
0.63% Average Annual Return
15
After investing $100k over four years in VBTLX, the investor made $1,531 less than his advisor
$1,000 $994 $1,010 $1,036
($600)
$1,590
$2,585
($1,067)
($2,000)
($1,000)
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Ret
urn
s &
Fee
s
Vanguard Fees Advisor Fees Investor Return
* Reflects returns of Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX)
Annual Investor Returns vs. Fees Paid to Advisor and Vanguard* ‘15-’18 Returns
$4,040
$2,509
$202
16
The status quo rewards service providers at the expense of the investor
17
It’s the “Advisor to Vanguard Road to Nowhere”
18
Corporate Bonds 101
Corporate Bonds 101 – Coupon and Maturity
19
Verizon 3.85% 11/1/42Coupon:
• Paid semi-annually until maturity date
• $38.50 in interest received annually for each bond owned‒ $385 per year if owned 10
bonds
Maturity Date:• Date at which company returns face value
(“par”) to investor ($1,000 per bond)
• Price you pay for a bond could be higher (‘premium’) or lower (‘discount’) than par value
How Bonds Are Quoted & What You Pay
20
How bonds are quoted:• Percentage of face
value• Face value of one
bond is $1,000• Online quotes before
0.1 pts markup/down
87.50 / 88.00
Bid / Offer Quote Buy 1 Bond for:
$880.00
Sell 1 Bond for:
$875.00
Plus Interest Accrued Since Last Coupon
Current Yield vs. Yield to Maturity
21
Verizon 3.85% 11/1/42
Bid-Offer Quote
87.50 / 88.00
Current Yield Yield to Maturity
If Bought at Par 3.85% 3.85%
If Bought at 88.00 4.38% 4.70%$880.00 to buy one bond
Current Yield at 88.00 = $38.50 ÷ $880.00
22
Technology Has Put Individual Investors on a More Level Playing Field with Institutional Investors
25 Years Ago Today
Investing online enables investors to see broad inventory at competitive prices
Liquid Market That Enables Active Investing
23
Corporate bonds trade in a competitive, two-sided market with generally reasonable bid-offer spreads
* Depth of book shown on Fidelity at the end of the trading day on October 4, 2019.
HP Inc. 6.00% 9/15/41 – Depth of Book*
Bids Offers
Bid-Offer Spread
0.64 points
0.043% or 4.3 bps
How Treasury Yields & Credit Spreads Impact Bond Prices
24
2.96% 2.49% 2.56% 2.68%
1.76%
0.64% 0.74%
7.97%
4.72%
3.13% 3.30%
10.65%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Verizon 3.85% '42 Verizon 4.6% '21 Alphabet 1.998% '26Albertsons 7.45% '29
Benchmark Treasury YTM Credit Spread
Benchmark Treasury YTM
+
Credit Spread
=
Corporate Bond’s YTM
YTM Building Blocks
25
Deciding When To Sell a Bond
Benchmark Treasury YTM
+
Credit Spread
=
Corporate Bond YTM
Ask Price:
2.80%
1.78%
4.58%
December 12, 2018 Investment Date
Benchmark Treasury YTM
+
Credit Spread
=
Corporate Bond YTM
Ask Price:
2.31%
1.09%
3.40%
May 15, 2019 Update
90.83 98.29
• Since December 12, Treasurys rallied AND the bond’s credit spread fell to a level below that of comparable bonds
• No credit rating change during the five-month period
• We saw little upside remaining in the bond on May 15
Source: YTM, pricing, and credit spread data from Fidelity.com. Example is for illustrative purposes only.
Marriott Int’l 3.125% 6/15/26 Bond
The Par Value Scale Informs Buying and Selling Decisions
26* Investment-grade corporate bond search conducted June 13, 2019 on Fidelity.com for bonds with yields to worst of at least 4.00%. Bonds are quoted as a percentage of their face value.
Investment-Grade Bond Offer Prices – 1,587 Bonds – June 13, 2019• The par-value scale is a
big advantage individual bonds have over funds
• Bonds trading at a discount generally have greater upside and less downside than premium bonds
• In a taxable account, $1 of capital gain is worth more than $1 of interest income
• Bond prices have ceilings, which often requires selling prior to maturity to maximize returns
0.3%
0.5%
1.5%
6.6%
19.9%
33.3%
26.3%
10.3%
1.2%
<80
>=80<85
>=85<90
>=90<95
>=95<100
>=100<110
>=110<125
>=125<150
>=150
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Off
er P
rice
# Bonds
27
How We Make Initial
Investment Decisions
28
Before that….
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Overlaying Credit Spreads with Financial Metrics
29
EBITDA
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO LEVERAGE RATIO
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization
EBITDA÷
Interest Expense
Long-Term Debt÷
EBITDA
Higher = lower default risk Lower = lower default risk
“Purer” of the two ratios
Corporate Bond ‘Sweat Meter’
30
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO
LEVERAGE RATIO
>=10x <=2.5x
<=3.0x >=5.5x
Lower credit risk
Higher credit risk
INVESTOR STATE OF MIND
Credits: Beach chair image licensed from Canva. Sweating man image licensed from Shutterstock.
Credit Ratings Can Be Helpful But Have Shortcomings
31
Investment Grade
Moody's S&P
Aaa AAA
Aa1 AA+
Aa2 AA
Aa3 AA-
A1 A+
A2 A
A3 A-
Baa1 BBB+
Baa2 BBB
Baa3 BBB-
Ba1 BB+
Ba2 BB
Ba3 BB-
B1 B+
B2 B
B3 B-
Caa1 CCC+
Caa2 CCC
Caa3 CCC-
Non-Investment Grade or
“High Yield”
Bond rating shortcomings
• Can often go years without changing
• Don’t speak to the value of a bond
• “Fuzzy metrics” often weighted more heavily than traditional credit ratios
BUT…Understanding ratings is still important:
• Rating impacts bond’s Treasury-yield sensitivity
• Upgrades and downgrades can impact corporate bond prices
32
32
2.4x
Cash (1)
Debt (1)
$2.3
$113.7
1.4x
$225.4
$112.6
Rating Baa1 / BBB+
Leverage Ratio (1)
Aa1 / AA+ Ba1 / BBB
2.72% 2.23%2.73%
2.23% 2.28% 2.32%
1.45%
0.97%1.17%
0.78%1.68%
5.78%
4.16%
3.20%
3.90%
3.01%
3.96%
8.11%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Verizon 3.85% '42 Verizon 2.625% '26 Apple 3.85% '43 Apple 2.45% '26 Expedia 3.80% '28 Albertsons 7.45% '29
Benchmark Treasury YTM Credit Spread
1.8x
$4.6
$3.7
WD** / CCC+
3.6x
$0.9
$9.8
Finding Value by Comparing Credit Spreads* and Financials
*Bond quotes taken on Fidelity.com between 10:38am and 11:00am EDT on May 23, 2019. **Moody’s withdrew its rating 3/28/13 due to ‘insufficient’ information to support rating.(1) $ in billions. Figures calculated based on financial information as of, or for the 12 months ending March 31, 2019, except Albertsons, which is as of Feb 23, 2019.
33
Understanding ‘credit value’ is key; however, investors must
also understand how different bonds can react to changes in
Treasury yields
34
2.72% 2.23%2.73%
2.23% 2.28% 2.32%
1.45%
0.97%1.17%
0.78%1.68%
5.78%
4.16%
3.20%
3.90%
3.01%
3.96%
8.11%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Verizon 3.85% '42 Verizon 2.625% '26 Apple 3.85% '43 Apple 2.45% '26 Expedia 3.80% '28 Albertsons 7.45% '29
Benchmark Treasury YTM Credit Spread
How Credit Quality Impacts Interest Rate Risk
Interest Rate RiskRanked 1-6 (1=highest)
2 1 5 634
Source: Bond quotes taken on Fidelity.com between 10:38am and 11:00am EDT on May 23, 2019. Expedia, on this date, was ‘split rated,’ as it was rated below investment grade by Moody’s (Ba1) and investment grade by S&P (BBB).
Corporate bonds of higher credit quality tend to have greater interest rate risk due to their:
• Longer initial maturities
• Lower coupons
• Institutional trading being indexed to the benchmark US Treasury
Corporate Bonds Don’t Move in Lockstep with Treasurys
35
Investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds react differently to changes in Treasury yields
Verizon 3.85% 11/1/42 vs. Benchmark Treasury – Sep 25, 2017-Apr 30, 2019
Verizon 3.85% 11/1/42 US Treasury 2.75% 11/15/42
Total Return*
-2.4 pts
+6 pts
+13.3%
Source: Historical Verizon ‘42 and US Treasury prices are from FINRA market data. Treasury CUSIP is 912810QY7.* Verizon return based on market price on September 25, 2017 on Fidelity.com and Fidelity statement price on April 30, 2019. Total returns include interest income and capital gains or losses.
Total Return* +1.9%
Not All Bonds Go Down When Treasurys Fall
36
Even as the comparable Treasury fell 7 points, this Albertsons ’29 bond returned 33.6%* due to strong performance and reduced concern around the Amazon / Whole Foods merger
Albertsons 7.45% 8/1/29 vs. Benchmark Treasury Price Performance – Sep 25, 2017-Apr 30, 2019
Albertsons 7.45% 8/1/29 US Treasury 6.125% 8/15/29
June ’17: Amazon buys Whole FoodsJuly ‘17: Albertsons cancels IPO
-7.4 pts
9/25/17+15 pts
Total Return*
+33.6%
* Albertsons return based on 9/25/17 offer price from Fidelity.com and 4/30/19 price from Fidelity brokerage statement. Treasury CUSIP: 912810FJ2. All other historical prices are from FINRA market data. Total returns include interest income and capital gains or losses.
1/22/19: S&P downgrades to CCC+
Total Return*
+1.7%Albertsons Leverage
Ratio:
6/17/17: 4.3x
2/23/19: 3.6x
37
How To Invest Actively in Corporate Bonds
Active Corporate Bond Investing vs. Bond Laddering
38
Active bond investing has a number of advantages vs. traditional bond ladders
$100k
Initial Investment
Illustrative $100k Bond Ladder
2023$30k matures
& re-invest
$30k
2026$40k matures
& re-invest
$40k
2028$30k matures
& re-invest
Illustrative Active Corporate Bond Investing
$30k $40k $30k $30k
Year 1
$40k
• ‘Big bang’ initial investment with high timing risk
• Return capped at YTM• Unable to exploit market opportunities• Maturity-based investment criteria
Legend:
Additional Buys
Sells
• Reduce timing risk by investing over time• Potentially increase returns by selling pre-
maturity to enhance capital appreciation• Modify approach as environment changes• Bond selection based on value and not just a
maturity date
Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
For illustrative and educational purposes only.
Initial Investment
Bond Maturities
What Active Corporate Bond Investing Is and Is Not
39
• Day trading • Generally 1- to 4-year holding period
• Selling as soon as a bond goes down 10 points
• Selling as soon as a bond goes up 10 points
Active Corporate Bond Investing IS NOT Active Corporate Bond Investing IS
• Maximize returns over 1- to 4-year periods
• Add to positions over time, including when prices fall
Sell!
Sell!
40
My Bond Investing “Commandments”
• Own bonds directly to improve transparency, lower fees, and increase returns
• Own a select portfolio of bonds with compelling relative values
• Make buy / sell decisions based entirely on investment criteria and NOT to create a bond ladder
• Vigorously protect every dollar of capital appreciation by selling prior to maturity when upside wanes
• Invest over time to capitalize on opportunities
• ‘High-yield’ bonds often have less overall risk than higher-rated bonds
41
Investors in individual bonds keep learning and can improve
performance over time
42
• Founded company to empower investors and increase returns
• 30 current bond recommendations
— Both investment grade and high yield
• Updating all prior picks on Monday, Oct 7
43
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