results review 4qfy19 03 may 2019 britannia … industries...results review 4qfy19 hdfc 03 may 2019...

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RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters Transformation underway BRIT reported a modest performance (in-line) led by a momentary softness in the sector. Although the stock is down 12% since our downgrade (Jul-18), we don’t see any immediate trigger to upgrade the stock. We remain constructive on BRIT’s transformation to a total foods company and see it as a multi-year growth story. We believe the success rate of BRIT’s new launches will be the key catalyst for the stock. Our TP at Rs 3,101 is based on 45x FY21E EPS. Maintain NEUTRAL. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Revenue/volume grew in-line with our exp. of 10/7% (12/10% in FY19) driven by new launches (4.5% of revenues in FY19) and distribution expansion in weak states. These initiatives have resulted in market share gains for BRIT vs. Parle (~150bps expansion in FY19, gap widened to ~5%). In pursuit of becoming a total foods company, momentum in new launches gathers pace with (a) More variants in biscuits, (b) Fixing product gaps in Cake portfolio and (c) Entry in newer categories (Dairy beverages, Cream Wafers, Salty snacks). Premiumisation journey for BRIT is here to stay driven by gross margin accretive new launches. Mgt. maintains aggressive guidance on NPD pipeline and expects NPD contribution to double in FY20E (9% of sales). EBITDAM was flat at 15.6% (vs. exp of +42bps) owing to (a) Aggressive A&P spend (new launches), (b) Write off on goodwill of ‘Daily bread’ and (c) Commissioned new manufacturing lines at Ranjangaon. We maintain our EBITDAM expansion of 60bps annually over FY19E- 21E (80bps annually over FY17-19) driven by cost savings program (Incremental saving of Rs 400mn in FY20E), premiumisation and favorable operating leverage. STANCE BRIT has consistently reported industry leading volume growth and margin expansion. The co. has made some inroads in the Hindi belt (growing 1.5x vs. BRIT) and rural market which has resulted in market share gains. At the same time, BRIT has focused on its cost savings program (4.5x in FY19 vs. FY14) which has further supported in re- investing in its brands. In the last 12 months, the co. has demonstrated its hunger for growth via new launches despite a challenging environment. We continue to like BRIT but rich valuations keep us at bay, as everything needs to go right for the co. Key risk on BRIT remains the return of food inflation. Financial Summary YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 27,990 25,375 10.3 28,424 (1.5) 90,541 99,140 110,547 126,995 146,228 EBITDA 4,366 3,971 9.9 4,518 (3.4) 12,782 15,017 17,334 20,665 24,767 APAT 2,943 2,632 11.8 3,001 (1.9) 8,846 10,040 11,555 13,589 16,562 Diluted EPS (Rs) 12.2 11.0 11.7 12.5 (1.9) 36.9 41.8 48.1 56.6 68.9 P/E (x) 75.5 66.6 57.9 49.2 40.4 EV / EBITDA (x) 51.9 43.8 37.8 31.4 25.8 Core RoCE (%) 44.1 39.1 39.2 41.4 46.1 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 02 May 2019) Rs 2,783 Target Price Rs 3,101 Nifty 11,725 Sensex 38,981 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRIT IN No. of Shares (mn) 240 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 669/9,633 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,075 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 3,472/2,610 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (14.4) (0.6) 2.6 Relative (%) (21.3) (13.8) (8.3) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-18 Mar-18 Promoters 50.66 50.66 FIs & Local MFs 12.93 12.37 FPIs 16.28 15.75 Public & Others 20.13 21.22 Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00 Source : BSE Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324 Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171-7336

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Page 1: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia … Industries...RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 HDFC 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL securities Institutional Research is also available

RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019

Britannia Industries NEUTRAL

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Transformation underwayBRIT reported a modest performance (in-line) led by a momentary softness in the sector. Although the stock is down 12% since our downgrade (Jul-18), we don’t see any immediate trigger to upgrade the stock. We remain constructive on BRIT’s transformation to a total foods company and see it as a multi-year growth story. We believe the success rate of BRIT’s new launches will be the key catalyst for the stock. Our TP at Rs 3,101 is based on 45x FY21E EPS. Maintain NEUTRAL. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Revenue/volume grew in-line with our exp. of 10/7%

(12/10% in FY19) driven by new launches (4.5% of revenues in FY19) and distribution expansion in weak states. These initiatives have resulted in market share gains for BRIT vs. Parle (~150bps expansion in FY19, gap widened to ~5%).

In pursuit of becoming a total foods company, momentum in new launches gathers pace with (a) More variants in biscuits, (b) Fixing product gaps in Cake portfolio and (c) Entry in newer categories (Dairy beverages, Cream Wafers, Salty snacks). Premiumisation journey for BRIT is here to stay driven by gross margin accretive new launches. Mgt. maintains aggressive guidance on NPD pipeline and

expects NPD contribution to double in FY20E (9% of sales).

EBITDAM was flat at 15.6% (vs. exp of +42bps) owing to (a) Aggressive A&P spend (new launches), (b) Write off on goodwill of ‘Daily bread’ and (c) Commissioned new manufacturing lines at Ranjangaon. We maintain our EBITDAM expansion of 60bps annually over FY19E-21E (80bps annually over FY17-19) driven by cost savings program (Incremental saving of Rs 400mn in FY20E), premiumisation and favorable operating leverage.

STANCE BRIT has consistently reported industry leading volume growth and margin expansion. The co. has made some inroads in the Hindi belt (growing 1.5x vs. BRIT) and rural market which has resulted in market share gains. At the same time, BRIT has focused on its cost savings program (4.5x in FY19 vs. FY14) which has further supported in re-investing in its brands. In the last 12 months, the co. has demonstrated its hunger for growth via new launches despite a challenging environment. We continue to like BRIT but rich valuations keep us at bay, as everything needs to go right for the co. Key risk on BRIT remains the return of food inflation.

Financial Summary YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 27,990 25,375 10.3 28,424 (1.5) 90,541 99,140 110,547 126,995 146,228 EBITDA 4,366 3,971 9.9 4,518 (3.4) 12,782 15,017 17,334 20,665 24,767 APAT 2,943 2,632 11.8 3,001 (1.9) 8,846 10,040 11,555 13,589 16,562 Diluted EPS (Rs) 12.2 11.0 11.7 12.5 (1.9) 36.9 41.8 48.1 56.6 68.9 P/E (x) 75.5 66.6 57.9 49.2 40.4 EV / EBITDA (x) 51.9 43.8 37.8 31.4 25.8 Core RoCE (%) 44.1 39.1 39.2 41.4 46.1

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 02 May 2019) Rs 2,783 Target Price Rs 3,101 Nifty 11,725 Sensex 38,981 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRIT IN No. of Shares (mn) 240 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 669/9,633 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,075 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 3,472/2,610 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (14.4) (0.6) 2.6 Relative (%) (21.3) (13.8) (8.3) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-18 Mar-18 Promoters 50.66 50.66 FIs & Local MFs 12.93 12.37 FPIs 16.28 15.75 Public & Others 20.13 21.22 Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00 Source : BSE

Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324

Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171-7336

Page 2: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia … Industries...RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 HDFC 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL securities Institutional Research is also available

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 2

Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%) Net Revenue 27,990 25,375 10.3 28,424 (1.5) 110,547 99,140 11.5 Material Expenses 16,459 15,613 5.4 16,688 (1.4) 65,615 61,071 7.4 Employee Expenses 1,082 1,084 (0.2) 1,170 (7.5) 4,418 4,016 10.0 Other Operating Expenses 6,083 4,707 29.2 6,049 0.6 23,180 19,036 21.8 EBITDA 4,366 3,971 9.9 4,518 (3.4) 17,334 15,017 15.4 Depreciation 469 424 10.7 424 10.6 1,619 1,421 13.9 EBIT 3,897 3,548 9.8 4,094 (4.8) 15,715 13,596 15.6 Other Income 618 444 39.1 600 3.0 2,065 1,664 24.1 Interest Cost 13 24 (47.3) 30 (58.1) 91 76 19.8 Share of (loss) I profit in associates (3) (6) na (6) na (10) (2) na PBT 4,499 3,962 13.6 4,658 (3.4) 17,679 15,182 16.5 Tax 1,557 1,330 17.0 1,658 (6.1) 6,125 5,142 19.1 RPAT 2,943 2,632 11.8 3,001 (1.9) 11,555 10,040 15.1 EPS 12.2 11.0 11.7 12 (1.9) 48.2 41.8 15.3 Margin Analysis

Particulars (%) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (bps) 3QFY19 QoQ (bps) FY19 FY18 YoY (%) Material Expenses 58.8 61.5 (273) 58.7 9 59.4 61.6 (225) Employee Expenses 3.9 4.3 (41) 4.1 (25) 4.0 4.1 (5) Other Operating Expenses 21.7 18.6 318 21.3 45 21.0 19.2 177 EBITDA Margin 15.6 15.6 (5) 15.9 (30) 15.7 15.1 53 Tax Rate 34.6 33.6 102 35.6 (99) 34.6 33.9 77 PAT Margin 10.5 10.4 14 10.6 (4) 10.5 10.1 33 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Domestic revenue growth was driven by 7% volume growth Commodity inflation at 3% has been stable The co. will now supply packaging material to 3rd party contract manufacturer of bread, hence expenses have moved from raw materials to other expenses Employee expense was flat owing to Rs 130mn bonus payout in 4QFY18 (centenary year) EBITDAM was flat (expectation of 42bps) owing to (a) Aggressive A&P spend (new launches), (b) Write off on goodwill of ‘Daily bread’ and (c) Commissioned new manufacturing lines at Ranjangaon

Page 3: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia … Industries...RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 HDFC 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL securities Institutional Research is also available

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 3

Quarterly Net Revenue Quarterly Domestic Volume Growth

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Quarterly EBITDA Quarterly Gross and EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Momentary softness in rural resulted in modest volume growth BRIT continues to be aggressive with its new launches which should accelerate growth in FY20 EBITDAM expansion has moderated in the recent past owing to higher marketing spend

6%

9%

11%

14%

16%

37%

39%

40%

42%

43%

Q2F

Y16

Q3F

Y16

Q4F

Y16

Q1F

Y17

Q2F

Y17

Q3F

Y17

Q4F

Y17

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Gross Margin (%) - LHS EBITDA Margin (%) - RHS

12%11%

10%

8% 8%

2% 2%3%

6%

12%11%

13%12%

7% 7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Q2F

Y16

Q3F

Y16

Q4F

Y16

Q1F

Y17

Q2F

Y17

Q3F

Y17

Q4F

Y17

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Q2F

Y16

Q3F

Y16

Q4F

Y16

Q1F

Y17

Q2F

Y17

Q3F

Y17

Q4F

Y17

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Net Revenue YoY Chg (%) - RHSRs mn

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

4,800

Q2F

Y16

Q3F

Y16

Q4F

Y16

Q1F

Y17

Q2F

Y17

Q3F

Y17

Q4F

Y17

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

EBITDA YoY Chg (%) - RHSRs mn

Page 4: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia … Industries...RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 HDFC 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL securities Institutional Research is also available

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 4

Revenue Performance Gross Margin

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

EBITDA Margin NPM

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

We expect revival in consumer demand, continued market share gains and new launches to support healthy growth in FY20E & FY21E We expect ~60bps EBITDAM expansion annually, driven by premiumisation, op-lev and cost savings

46 55 62

69 79 84 91

99 111

127

146

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

40

80

120

160

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

Net Sales YoY Gr. CAGR (%) - RHS

Rs bn

34.3

% 35.6

% 37.6

% 39.7

%

40.3

%

40.3

%

38.3

%

38.4

% 40.6

%

41.2

%

41.6

%

28.0%

31.5%

35.0%

38.5%

42.0%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

5.1% 5.7% 6.

8%

9.1% 11

.0%

14.5

%

14.1

%15

.1%

15.7

%

16.3

%

16.9

%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

18.0%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

2.9% 3.

6% 4.2%

5.7%

8.3%

9.8%

9.8% 10

.1%

10.5

%

10.7

%

11.3

%

0.0%

3.5%

7.0%

10.5%

14.0%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

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BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 5

Revenue Growth In Weak States

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Direct Reach Rural distribution (Rural Preferred Dealers)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Weak states now contribute ~20% of revenue mix vs. 40% for the industry. A few years back this share was <10% for BRIT BRIT is successfully gaining share from Parle in North India BRIT’s market share is in the low teens in the weak states

17%

10% 10%

19%

26%

15%

9%

19%

23%

13%

9%

20%

16%15% 15%

27%

15%

19%17%

22%

0%

8%

16%

24%

32%

Gujarat MP UP Rajasthan

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

0.73

1.00

1.26

1.55

1.84

2.10

0.50

0.90

1.30

1.70

2.10

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

mnmn

5.506.60

8.0010.00

14.40

18.10

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

000'S

Page 6: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia … Industries...RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 HDFC 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL securities Institutional Research is also available

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 6

BRIT Vs. Parle Market Share

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Premiumisation, innovation and distribution expansion were the key drivers for BRIT to gain market share over the years BRIT’s market share in Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP and MP is just 1/5th that of Parle (market leader)

Page 7: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 03 MAY 2019 Britannia … Industries...RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 HDFC 03 MAY 2019 Britannia Industries NEUTRAL securities Institutional Research is also available

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 7

Key Assumptions Assumptions FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue Growth (%)

Biscuits and high protein food 8.0 8.0 11.5 10.5 11.0 Bread, bread toast and rusk 7.0 7.0 15.0 17.0 17.0 Cake 8.0 8.0 15.0 16.0 16.0 Dairy Business 2.5 (5.2) 8.0 25.0 30.0 International Business (13.8) (3.1) 13.0 16.0 16.0

Gross Margin (%) 38.3 38.4 40.6 41.2 41.6 ASP (% of sales) 4.3 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.4 Distribution (% of sales) 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 Tax Rate (%) 32.2 33.9 34.6 34.6 34.6 NPM (%) 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.7 11.3 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Change in estimates

FY19E FY20E FY21E OLD NEW Chg (%) OLD NEW Chg (%) OLD NEW Chg (%)

Sales 111,233 110,547 -0.6% 128,932 126,995 -1.5% 149,462 146,228 -2.2% EBITDA 17,622 17,334 -1.6% 21,309 20,665 -3.0% 25,522 24,767 -3.0% APAT 11,600 11,555 -0.4% 14,089 13,589 -3.5% 17,110 16,562 -3.2% EPS 48.3 48.1 -0.5% 58.7 56.6 -3.6% 71.3 68.9 -3.3% Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

We cut our estimates by 3% to factor in (a) delay in new launches, (b) momentary softness in demand, (c) return of input inflation and (d) higher marketing spend

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BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 8

Peer Set Comparison

Company MCap

(Rs bn)

CMP (Rs) Reco. TP

(Rs)

EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE (%)

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E

HUL 3,659 1,724 NEU 1,844 28.4 33.8 41.6 60.7 51.0 41.4 40.7 37.0 28.6 69.6 28.8 22.4 ITC 3,728 306 BUY 394 10.2 11.3 12.4 29.9 27.1 24.6 18.8 16.9 15.1 38.1 38.6 40.1 Nestle 1,022 10,604 NR 11,225 176.3 210.5 249.4 60.1 50.4 42.5 35.0 30.0 25.7 78.0 100.1 136.7 Dabur 669 380 BUY 464 8.2 10.2 12.2 46.4 37.1 31.1 37.0 30.4 25.6 47.5 55.4 61.6 Britannia 669 2,783 NEU 3,101 48.1 56.5 68.5 57.9 49.2 40.6 37.8 31.3 25.9 39.2 41.7 46.3 Marico 459 355 BUY 402 7.2 9.7 11.5 49.0 36.6 30.9 35.3 26.8 23.0 41.4 53.3 60.0 Colgate 325 1,192 NEU 1,260 27.8 32.2 37.3 42.8 37.0 32.0 25.4 22.0 19.1 68.7 77.9 89.1 Emami 178 383 BUY 534 11.7 14.4 16.9 32.8 26.6 22.7 22.6 18.7 16.1 23.6 30.9 37.8 Jub. Food 178 1,346 BUY 1,758 25.1 31.5 38.2 53.6 42.7 35.2 28.0 22.3 18.3 48.9 64.5 85.2 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Income Statement Year End March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 90,541 99,140 110,547 126,995 146,228 Growth (%) 7.8 9.5 11.5 14.9 15.1 Material Expenses 55,887 61,071 65,615 74,673 85,397 Employee Expense 3,526 4,016 4,418 4,920 5,569 ASP Expense 3,850 4,113 5,118 5,715 6,434 Distribution Expense 4,459 4,864 5,748 6,604 7,458 Other Expense 10,037 10,059 12,313 14,419 16,603 EBITDA 12,782 15,017 17,334 20,665 24,767 EBITDA Growth (%) 5.3 17.5 15.4 19.2 19.9 EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 Depreciation & Amortisation 1,193 1,421 1,619 1,737 2,000 EBIT 11,589 13,596 15,715 18,927 22,768 Other Income (Including EO Items) 1,505 1,664 2,065 2,477 3,184

Interest 55 76 91 618 618 PBT 13,040 15,184 17,689 20,786 25,333 Tax 4,197 5,142 6,125 7,197 8,772 RPAT 8,846 10,040 11,555 13,589 16,562 Adjustment - - - - - APAT 8,846 10,040 11,555 13,589 16,562 APAT Growth (%) 7.3 13.5 15.1 17.6 21.9 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 36.9 41.8 48.1 56.6 68.9 EPS Growth (%) 7.3 13.4 15.0 17.6 21.9

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Note: Factored bonus debentures as debt

Balance Sheet Year End March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 240 240 240 240 240 Reserves 26,767 33,855 34,583 43,834 55,479 Total Shareholders Funds 27,007 34,095 34,823 44,074 55,719 Bonus Debentures 7,210 7,210 7,210 Minority interest 26 131 327 327 327 Long Term Debt 314 846 619 619 619 Short Term Debt 930 1,159 761 761 761 Total Debt 1,244 2,005 1,380 1,380 1,380 Net Deferred Taxes (231) (226) (138) (138) (138) Non Current Liabilities 307 341 387 440 505 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 28,353 36,347 43,989 53,293 65,002 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 10,322 12,174 15,579 17,842 18,842 CWIP 1,478 2,423 1,012 1,012 1,012 Goodwill 1,278 1,282 1,304 1,304 1,304 LT Loans & Advances 1,002 1,744 847 - - Other Non Current Assets 264 292 1,011 1,161 1,337 Total Non-current Assets 14,345 17,916 19,753 21,319 22,495 Inventories 6,615 6,528 7,814 8,890 10,090 Debtors 1,792 3,046 3,942 4,445 4,972 Other Current Assets 12,030 11,507 14,910 16,890 19,448 Cash & Equivalents 6,076 12,657 15,323 22,163 31,561 Total Current Assets 26,513 33,738 41,989 52,388 66,071 Creditors 9,822 12,293 15,061 17,321 20,002 Other Current Liabilities 2,683 3,014 2,692 3,093 3,561 Total Current Liabilities 12,505 15,307 17,753 20,414 23,563 Net Current Assets 14,008 18,431 24,236 31,974 42,507 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 28,353 36,347 43,989 53,293 65,002

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Cash Flow Statement Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Reported PBT 13,040 15,184 17,689 20,786 25,333 Non-operating & EO Items (1,395) (1,511) - - - Interest Expenses 55 76 91 618 618 Depreciation 1,193 1,421 1,619 1,737 2,000 Working Capital Change (4,514) 2,283 (3,362) (898) (1,136) Tax Paid (3,966) (4,965) (6,125) (7,197) (8,772) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 4,413 12,488 9,912 15,047 18,044 Capex (3,518) (4,212) (4,033) (4,000) (3,000) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 895 8,276 5,879 11,047 15,044 Investments 1,271 (6,442) (3,959) (1,500) (1,500) Non-operating Income 749 1,091 904 750 (112) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (1,499) (9,563) (7,088) (4,750) (4,612) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (70) 673 (402) - - Interest Expenses (55) (75) (91) (618) (618) FCFE 2,789 3,523 2,330 9,679 12,814 Share Capital Issuance 58 151 - - - Dividend (2,884) (3,174) (3,618) (4,338) (4,917) Others - 108 - - - FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (2,951) (2,317) (4,110) (4,956) (5,535) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (36) 608 (1,287) 5,340 7,898 EO Items, Others 355 49 - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 1,208 1,864 570 5,911 13,808

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 38.3 38.4 40.6 41.2 41.6 ASP 4.3 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.4 EBITDA Margin 14.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 EBIT Margin 12.8 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 APAT Margin 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.7 11.3 RoE 36.9 32.9 33.5 34.4 33.2 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 44.1 39.1 39.2 41.4 46.1 RoCE 35.2 31.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 32.2 33.9 34.6 34.6 34.6 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 Inventory (days) 26.7 24.0 25.8 25.6 25.2 Debtors (days) 7.22 11.21 13.02 12.78 12.41 Other Current Assets (days) 48.5 42.4 49.2 48.5 48.5 Payables (days) 39.6 45.3 49.7 49.8 49.9 Other Current Liab. (days) 10.8 11.1 8.9 8.9 8.9 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 32.0 21.3 29.4 28.2 27.3 Net D/E (x) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) Interest Coverage (x) 212.6 179.1 172.9 30.6 36.8 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 36.9 41.8 48.1 56.6 68.9 CEPS 41.8 47.7 54.8 63.8 77.2 Dividend 11.0 12.5 15.0 17.0 20.0 Book Value 112.5 142.0 144.9 183.4 231.9 VALUATION P/E (x) 75.5 66.6 57.9 49.2 40.4 P/BV (x) 24.7 19.6 19.2 15.2 12.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 51.9 43.8 37.8 31.4 25.8 EV/Revenues (x) 7.3 6.6 5.9 5.1 4.4 OCF/EV (%) 0.7 1.9 1.5 2.3 2.8 FCF/EV (%) 0.1 1.3 0.9 1.7 2.4 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.4 1.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 18-May-18 2,739 BUY 3,010

9-Jul-18 3,150 NEU 3,154 10-Oct-18 2,757 NEU 3,083 13-Nov-18 2,908 NEU 3,044 9-Jan-19 3,090 NEU 3,149

11-Feb-19 3,108 NEU 3,115 10-Apr-19 2,963 NEU 3,207 3-May-19 2,783 NEU 3,101

2,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0003,1003,2003,3003,4003,500

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov-

18

Dec-

18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-

19

May

-19

Britannia Inds TP

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Disclosure: We, Naveen Trivedi, MBA & Siddhant Chhabria, PGDBM, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. 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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com