results presentation 31 december 2019 andi case and jeff ...€¦ · at 31 december balance sheet...

Results Presentation31 December 2019

Andi Case and Jeff Woyda

9 March 2020

Andi Case and Jeff Woyda | 9 March 2020Results Presentation | 31 December 20192

Agenda

1Financial results

2Markets

3Outlook


Financial results

Jeff WoydaChief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

to 31 DecemberResults summary


2019

£m

2018

£m

Revenue 363.0 337.6 +7.5%

Underlying profit before taxation(Before exceptional item and acquisition related costs)

49.3 45.3 +8.8%

Underlying earnings per share(Before exceptional item and acquisition related costs)

118.8p 105.2p +12.9%

to 31 DecemberResults summary


2019

£m

2018

£m

Revenue 363.0 337.6 +7.5%

Underlying profit before taxation(Before exceptional item and acquisition related costs)

49.3 45.3 +8.8%

Exceptional item

Acquisition related costs

(47.5)

(1.6)

-

(2.4)

Profit before taxation(After exceptional item and acquisition related costs)

0.2 42.9

Underlying earnings per share(Before exceptional item and acquisition related costs)

118.8p 105.2p +12.9%

Revenue, profit and marginSegmental performance


Revenue

2019

£m

Revenue

2018

£m

Profit

2019

£m

Profit

2018

£m

Margin

2019

Margin

2018

Broking 283.0 251.7 55.5 44.0 19.6% 17.5%

Financial 35.5 46.1 3.3 8.0 9.3% 17.4%

Support 27.7 23.9 3.1 2.3 11.2% 9.6%

Research 16.8 15.9 5.4 5.0 32.1% 31.4%

at 31 DecemberBalance sheet


2016

£m

2017

£m

2018

£m

2019

£m

Tangible fixed assets 33.0 33.3 29.3 28.9

Intangible fixed assets (Software only) - 1.5 5.4 9.9

Investments (relating to convertible bonds) - - 6.7 6.7

Investments (other) 4.1 4.9 4.8 4.8

37.1 39.7 46.2 50.3

Working capital (7.4) 8.8 18.9 14.0

Net available funds 98.4 79.1 73.4 84.7

91.0 87.9 92.3 98.7

Pensions 2.3 12.3 14.0 11.0

Deferred tax 7.1 4.6 2.2 3.1

Loan notes (23.6) – – -

Leases (7.7) (9.2) (8.1) (10.8)

Net assets before intangibles 106.2 135.3 146.6 152.3

Intangibles (excl Software above) 300.5 288.1 288.0 228.3

Net assets 406.7 423.4 434.6 380.6

to 31 DecemberSea/ related IT costs


2019

£m

2018

£m

Items taken to Income Statement

Non capitalised items (Sea/ only) (4.3) (2.4)

Amortisation (0.3) -

2019

£m

2018

£m

Software related Intangible Asset b/d 1 January 5.4 1.5

Additions 4.7 3.9

Amortisation (0.3) -

Software related Intangible Asset c/d 31 December 9.8 5.4

Goodwill – Offshore & Securities CGU’s


Goodwill on

Acquisition

£m

FX

Gain

£m

Impairment

£m

Goodwill at

31 Dec 2019

£m

Other

Assets

£m

Recoverable

amount

(value in use)

£m

Offshore 73.8 4.5 (13.0) 65.3 5.8 71.1

Securities 105.1 - (34.5) 70.6 7.9 78.5

178.9 4.5 (47.5) 135.9 13.7 149.6

Balance SheetIFRS 16


Under

IFRS 16

£m

Right of Use Assets

Cost recognised as at 1 January 2019 53.7

Additions 9.5

Depreciation charged during the year (8.3)

Foreign exchange differences (1.5)

Net book value at 31 December 2019 53.4

Lease Commitments

Current Liabilities (8.7)

Non-Current Liabilities (53.7)

Income StatementIFRS 16


Under

IFRS 16

£m

Depreciation (8.3)

Interest on lease liabilities (2.1)

Impact on Profit before taxation (10.4)

Previously

Rent paid under operating lease (10.7)

No net impact on Cash Flow. Rent paid is outgoing and depreciation is added back as non cash item – £10.7m Cash outflow now

shown as financing rather than operating outflow

at 31 DecemberTrade Debtors


2019

£m

2018

£mIncrease/

(Decrease)

0-3 months 52.9 53.5 (0.6)

3-12 months 9.4 8.2 1.2

Over 12 months - - -

62.3 61.7 0.6

Net available funds and free cash resources


31 December

2019

£m

31 December

2018

£m

Cash and cash equivalents 175.7 156.5

Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (1.2) –

Current investment deposits 2.4 1.7

Net cash equivalents 176.9 158.2

Reserved for bonus (full cost) (92.2) (84.8)

Net available funds 84.7 73.4

Held by regulatory businesses (16.0) (16.4)

Free cash resources 68.7 57.0

Movement in free cash resources


(15.4)

(9.2)

(10.7)

(7.6)

(2.7)(4.7)

(3.9)(2.3)

57.0

41.6

50.5

13.3

4.9

(0.9) 0.4 68.7

Free cashresources

Dec 18

Final Dividend Free cashresources after

dividend

Operating profit Depreciation Other Workingcapital

Taxation Leasepayments

Interimdividend

Dividends paidto non-

controllinginterests

Capitaliseddevelopment

costs

Capex Other Net purchaseof investments

Movement innet funds ofregulatedentities

Free cashresources Dec 19

for invoicing in the following yearForward Order Book (FOB)


2019

for 2020

US$m

2018

for 2019

US$m

Directors’ best estimate of deliverable FOB 113 107

17 years of progressive dividendDividend history


6 79 10

1214

16 16 17 18 18 1921 22 22 23 24 25

911

16

2224

2626 27

3032 33

3739

4043

5051

53

1518

25

3236

4042 43

4750 51

5660

6265

7375

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Interim Final

78


Markets

Andi CaseChief Executive Officer

The Board

Andi Case and Jeff Woyda | 9 March 2020

Results Presentation | 31 December 2019

18

Chair

Sir Bill ThomasChair (Independent Non-Executive)

Executive Directors

Andi CaseChief Executive Officer

Jeff WoydaChief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Non-Executive Directors

Peter BackhouseSenior Independent Non-Executive Director

Marie-Louise ClaytonIndependent Non-Executive Director

Heike TruolIndependent Non-Executive Director

Tim MillerIndependent Non-Executive Director

Birger NergaardIndependent Non-Executive Director

Company Secretary

Rachel SpencerCompany Secretary


China is 23% of shipping imports, 33% of newbuilds; China’s manufacturing PMI fell sharply in Feb…deeper than SARS, further downgrades now likely with virus spread

Source: Industry Sources. GDP forecasts shown against date reported.

Impact on Chinese and Global Economy….

19

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

30

-Jan

-20

06

-Fe

b-2

0

13

-Fe

b-2

0

20

-Fe

b-2

0

27

-Fe

b-2

0

05

-Mar-

20

International Forecasters

Chinese Forecasters

China 2020 GDP Forecasts Global 2020 GDP Forecasts

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

30

-Jan

-20

06

-Fe

b-2

0

13

-Fe

b-2

0

20

-Fe

b-2

0

27

-Fe

b-2

0

05

-Mar-

20

Pre-coronavirus averagePre-coronavirus average

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Jan-1

0

Jan-1

1

Jan-1

2

Jan-1

3

Jan-1

4

Jan-1

5

Jan-1

6

Jan-1

7

Jan-1

8

Jan-1

9

Jan-2

0

China Manufacturing PMI

?

?

OECD Low Case

OECD Base Case


….long term trend; increasing complexities; short-term disruption

Seaborne Trade Trends…

Source: Provisional data from Clarksons Research Sea/net. Port calls basis all instances of vessels entering and leaving a

defined port location, excluding instances where vessel not recorded as travelling at less than 1 knot, and combining

multiple consecutive instances at the same port where the vessel has not left a buffered shape around the port.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-15

-10 -5 0 5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2019

2020

Day 0: Chinese New Year

2019: 5th February

2020: 25th January

NB. Further data needed to confirm

trend, however, other sources are also

suggesting some recovery in port

activity more recently.

Latest date:

1st March 2020

Days before/after Chinese New Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19e

ThousandsDry Bulk

OilContainersGasOthersTrade per Capita (LHS)

Global seaborne trade, bn tonnes Daily Chinese port callings

Source: Clarksons Research.

Source: Clarksons Research. Data up to 27th Feb 2020.

…Cross sector ClarkSea Index…


… Improvements 2016-19; Covid-19 disruption early 2020; down 32% but still up y-o-y and on trend

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-1

6

Jan-1

7

Jan-1

8

Jan-1

9

Jan-2

0

$000/day

Improvements 2016-19…… SARS in 2003……Major Covid-19 disruption……

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-0

3

Feb

-03

Ma

r-0

3

Apr-

03

Ma

y-0

3

Jun-0

3

Jul-0

3

Aug-0

3

Sep-0

3

Oct-

03

No

v-0

3

De

c-0

3

First Sars cases

reported in late 2002.

First Sars cases

in Hong Kong.

WHO issues

global alert

Quarantine

measures

introduced in

Beijing

WHO declares

outbreak

‘contained’

$000/day

Extent of Covid-19 disruption expected to be longer and

deeper than SARS0

5

10

15

20

25

30

29

-Nov-1

9

06

-Dec-1

9

13

-Dec-1

9

20

-Dec-1

9

27

-Dec-1

9

03

-Jan

-20

10

-Jan

-20

17

-Jan

-20

24

-Jan

-20

31

-Jan

-20

07

-Fe

b-2

0

14

-Fe

b-2

0

21

-Fe

b-2

0

28

-Fe

b-2

0

$000/day

IMO 2020 introduced,

first Covid-19 cases

reported

WHO declares global

health emergency

Stocks & commodities

markets fall sharply as

virus cases outside

China jump

Chinese stock market falls 8% on first

day of trading post-Chinese New Year

Pre-existing seasonal trends; Covid-19 “amplifying”;

Multi-sector ClarkSea Index down 32% but still up y-o-y

Year Avg. Index % change

2017 10,767 +14%

2018 12,144 +13%

2019 15,082 +24%

Improving markets since 2016.

Seasonal drop typically

seen in Q1.


…rest of world impact, investor sentiment, stimulus measures……Risk profile and focus for shipping changing...

22

No. New Coronavirus Cases

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

22

-Jan

-20

24

-Jan

-20

26

-Jan

-20

28

-Jan

-20

30

-Jan

-20

01

-Fe

b-2

0

03

-Fe

b-2

0

05

-Fe

b-2

0

07

-Fe

b-2

0

09

-Fe

b-2

0

11

-Fe

b-2

0

13

-Fe

b-2

0

15

-Fe

b-2

0

17

-Fe

b-2

0

19

-Fe

b-2

0

21

-Fe

b-2

0

23

-Fe

b-2

0

25

-Fe

b-2

0

27

-Fe

b-2

0

29

-Fe

b-2

0

02

-Mar-

20

China

Other Countries

17th Feb: 19,461

Spike due to change in

Chinese reporting

methodology

26th Feb: Number of

new cases outside of

China starts to

outstrip new Chinese

cases

Date

4 Mar

Country/

RegionStimulus Details

3 Feb China $21bn Injection of liquidity into financial markets

5 Feb China US tariff cuts Tariff reductions on imports of US crude oil, grain

18 Feb Singapore $4.6bnJob support scheme, tax rebates, support for

tourism, retail and aviation sectors

18 Feb China US tariff waivers Tariff waivers on imports of US crude, grain, gas

19 Feb China Interest rate cut Lowering of benchmark interest rates

19 Feb China Virus-linked bonds (>$3.4bn)Issuance of bonds with low coupon rates where

10% of proceeds spent on controlling epidemic

25 Feb Indonesia $0.7bn Support to consumer spending and tourism

25 Feb Taiwan $2bn Loans for small businesses, tourism sector support

27 Feb Malaysia $4.7bnTax breaks in tourism sector. Loans to

small/medium companies.

28 Feb Italy $1bnSuspension of mortgages, tax payments. Funds

for worker incomes. Business guarantee funds.

28 Feb South Korea $0.4bnEmergency loans to struggling airlines, shipping

companies, travel agencies, retailers

28 Feb South Korea $16.7bn Support to local economies, tax cuts, loans.

1 Mar Italy $4bnSupport to tourism, logistics and transport sectors.

Tax cuts. Tax credits for affected companies.

3 Mar Australia Interest rate cut Reduction in official interest rates to a record low.

3 Mar US Interest rate cut Cut by 50 basis points

4 Mar China Infrastructure / Stimulus Announcements by 13 provinces

Announced Economic Stimulus Measures

Source: World Health Organisation, various, Clarksons Research.

23

…fleet growth “manageable”: orderbook at just 10% of fleet

Source: Clarksons Research, February 2020

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

201

5

201

7

201

9

202

1f

Fleet, end year

Fleet Growth %

Fleet growth peaked

at c. 9% in 2010

Development of World Fleet, million GT

• world fleet 65% larger than 2008

• 35% more cargo being moved than 2008

2020 (f): 2.7%

2021 (f): 1.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

Global Fleet, GT Dry Bulk (Dwt)

Containerships (TEU) Deep Sea Tankers (Dwt)

Specialised Products (Dwt) LNG Carriers (No. of Vessels)

LPG Carriers (Cu. M.)

Orderbook as % of fleet – lowest for 20 years



Fleet Development…

Source: Clarksons Research. Data as of 1st February 2020. Retrospective changes to number of orders may

occur due to late reporting and other factors. Vessels of 20,000+ dwt.

Shipyards & Contracting….

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Rest of World

China - Japan - Korea

2009: 323 yards

Feb 2020:

122 yards

No. Of Global Newbuilding OrdersNo. Of Yards To Take at Least One Order

….newbuild contracting historically low; shipyard capacity consolidating

Source: Clarksons Research. Data as of 1st February 2020. Retrospective changes to number of orders may occur due to late

reporting and other factors. Vessels of 20,000+ dwt.



2,927

256

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

…regulatory timeline accelerating; potential market disruptionEnvironmental Pressures building…


Timeline Key

ECAs

SOx

NOx

GHG / EEDI

Green Recycling

Ballast Water

Current Position

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 - - - - - - 2030 - - - - - - 2050

Ratification of Ballast

Water Management

Convention (BWMC)

1.0% ECA

Sulphur LimitBaltic Sea

ECA in effect

Global NOx

Tier II Limit

3.5% Global

Sulphur Limit

Lower EEDI

reference line

(Phase 1)

EU MRV

certification

in effect

Lower EEDI

ref. line

(Phase 3)*

US

Caribbean

ECA in effect

Lower EEDI

ref. line

(Phase 2)

Global NOx

Tier I Limit

EEDI for

newbuildings

formally adopted

North Sea

ECA in effect

North

American

ECA in effect

EEDI & SEEMP

Mandatory

(Phase 0)

0.1% ECA

Sulphur limit

ECA NOx Tier III

emission limit

takes effect*

BWMC

enters into

force

North Sea &

Baltic Sea NOx

ECAs in effect

EU MRV reporting

period begins in

EU ports

0.5% Global Sulphur

Limit, carriage ban

from March

50% GHG

Reduction

Target

IMO DCS

reporting

period begins

EU SRR

enters into

force

40% CO2

Intensity

Reduction Target

BWMC

implementation for

majority of fleet

Source: Clarksons Research, February 2020. *EEDI phase 3 requirements brought forward to 2022 for gas carriers, general cargo ships and containerships.

Shipping’s Carbon Footprint

26

shipping 2.4% of global CO2 but still carbon efficient

Average CO2 intensity for different modes of freight transport (tonnes CO2 per million tonne-miles)

Source: Clarksons Research, IMO, IATA, Global Carbon Project. CO2 Intensity refers to tonnes of CO2 emitted per million tonne miles of trade. Shipping CO2 intensity calculated basis average global merchant fleet (100+ GT) as per Clarksons Research models.CO2 intensities for

Rail, Road and Air freight basis averages of a range of estimates provided in the IMO 2nd GHG study, 2009. Red bars extend from the lowest estimate provided to highest estimate provided in the IMO 2nd GHG study, 2009. Note: total CO2 emissions for airline industry includes

passenger as well as freight industry. All CO2 output statistics are based on annual figures. CO2 output for VLCC and tanker fleets are calculated basis a ‘modern’ c. 2010 built vessel. Total shipping CO2 output and global CO2 output volumes basis estimates for 2017.

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Shipping

Rail

Road

Air (Freight)

Average CO2 Intensity

Red bars represent range of CO2

intensities for different types of

carrier within a transport

category.

Carbon footprint per annum of VLCCs, Tankers and Shipping as a share

of global CO2 emissions

1 VLCC

VLCC Fleet:

783 vessels

Oil Tanker Fleet

(10k+ dwt):

5,170 vessels

World Fleet:

97,520 vessels

World

%Global

CO2:

0.0%

%Global

CO2:

0.1%

%Global

CO2:

0.5%

CO2

Output:

~880 mt

%Global

CO2:

2.4%

CO2

Output:

36.2 bn t

2.4%

Shipping’s share

of global CO2

emissions, 2019




Reductions in CO2…

Average Vessel Speed Indices 2008-2019: down ~17%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Bulkers Containerships Crude Tankers

Product Tankers LNG Carriers

2019 Speed Trends:

Bulkers -0.9%

Containerships -2.1%

Crude Tankers +0.5%

Product Tankers -0.5%

LNG Carriers +0.3%

Estimated 2019 vs 2008 Speeds:

Bulkers down c.13 to c.11 knots

Oil Tankers down c.14 to c.11.5 knots

Containerships down c.23 to c.16 knots

LNG Carriers down c.18 to c.15 knots

Source: Clarksons Research, Various.

…despite moving 35% more cargo and driven by speed reductions

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CO2 Output down 14% 2008-2019

while moving ~35% more cargo;

Est. World Shipping Fleet CO2 Output, m. tonnes

Fleet Renewal & Fuel Transition……demolition ages reducing and retro-fit potential…

Source: Clarksons Research, February 2020. “Eco” – defined as vessel with electronic main engine contracted after Jan 2012.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

% fle

et

mil

lio

n G

T

Eco Other % of Fleet (RHS)

World Fleet by Year of Delivery

1. 13% of fleet tonnage built between 1999 and 2004,

i.e. 15-20 years old.

2. 32% of fleet tonnage built 2009-13. Retrofit potential

– Energy Saving Technologies / Fuel Conversions?

3. 22% of fleet tonnage now “eco” and increasing, 13%

is scrubber fitted and increasing.


…LNG Fuel gaining traction……but no clear winner as the “solution” fuel…

Source: Clarksons Research, Data As Of February 2020


Existing Vessels (2,000+ GT) already burning Alternative Fuels Orderbook (2,000+ GT) to be burning Alternative Fuels

3% of fleet tonnage

alternative fuel

22% of orderbook tonnage

alternative fuel

…but significant changes in financial landscape…

Source: Clarksons Research / Marine Money / Petrofin / Industry Sources, Sep. 2019

Financing requirements...

Value of The World Fleet & OrderbookPortfolio Size Estimates as of 1H 2019 (US$ billion)

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Bank of China

BNP Paribas

China Exim

KfW IPEX-Bank

ABN AMRO

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank

Credit Agricole CIB

K-Sure

DNB

ICBC Leasing

Citigroup

BOCOMM Financial Leasing

Nordea

ING Bank

SMBC

DVB

KEXIM

SEB

NORD/LB

Danske Bank

Portfolio Size (estimate)



Tankers$220bn

Bulkers$214bn

Boxships$138bn

Gas$122bn

Other Vessels$308bn

Offshore$273bn

World Fleet

& Orderbook

Value

$1.3tn

Source: Clarksons Research. January 2020.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150 200 250

Ma

x W

ate

r D

ep

th (

m)

Distance to Shore (km)

Long Term Potential

Probable

Construction

Active

Offshore Wind Industry Growth Accelerating……10 year growth in MW capacity averages 23%...

Internationalisation Of The Offshore Wind Industry Deeper And Further From Shore

Source: Clarksons Research, 2020.

Data Source: Clarksons Research Data Source: Clarksons Research

No. Farms

The area of the circles is proportional to total power

output in MW



0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

China P.R.United Kingdom

United StatesVietnam

GermanySouth Korea

TaiwanDenmark

JapanNetherlands

GreeceFrancePoland

BelgiumCanadaSweden

IrelandIndia

EstoniaFinland

BrazilNorway

Canary IslandsOthers

ActiveConstructionPotential

Technology


Key advances

Launched Sea/ platform with 8 initial modules

Established Maritech as independent & ring fenced

Offices in London, Singapore, Houston, Birmingham

Clients include Charterers, Owners, Traders, Brokers

Tankers, Dry Cargo, Containers, Gases, Specialised Products,

Offshore, Sale & Purchase

4,500 users

Client benefits include risk mitigation, improved efficiency, workflow

digitisation, cost reduction, better control, focussed communication,

smarter decisions

Full end to end offering will be launched in H2 2020

Capital Markets Day provisionally on Wednesday 29th April, 2020

Financial Outlook


Tailwinds vs Headwinds

Forward

order book

$ 113m

+$6m

Demand

growth

2019

12bn tonnes

2009

8.2bn tonnes

Supply side

challenged

• Lack of

finance

• Shipyard

sustainability

• Design

evolution

Progressive

dividend

policy in

17th year

Cash

generative

and debt

free

Exchange

rate

volatility

Brexit & US

Election

Black Swan

Covid - 19

Headwinds…?

Tailwinds

Sentiment

Uncertainty

Regulation

• IMO 2020

• 2030

• 2050

Markets Company

Thank You

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