results for q4 2016 analyst teleconference...11 months 2016 - turkish consumption (million...
TRANSCRIPT
-
RESULTS FOR Q4 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE
-
02 Operation
03Financials
01Market
-
01Market
-
4
2016 Fourth Quarter Market Conditions
Postponed Maintenances
Started to take place
High Agricultural
Demand
Normalized Seasonal
Demand with El Nino fading
away
Industrially Driven Asian Growth and
Stronger European Demand
OPEC & Non OPEC Supply
Cut
• FED Rate Hikes
• Emerging Markets Slow
Down
• Brexit
Stock levels were still
higher
Global Terrorism
Fluctuation in currency &
prices
High Production of
OPEC & Russia before cut / Increase in rig counts
in USA
Product Market Crude Oil
-
Key Highlights in Q4
5
Diesel Sales
Capacity Utilization*
100% Capacity
Utilization Target has
been achieved
862
803
876
956913
951
700
800
900
1000
Oct Nov Dec
15 16Thousand
tons
Diesel sales
increased by 11%
6,4 6,2
2,9
10,1 10,2 9,9
0
4
8
12
Oct Nov Dec
15 16
Strong net refinery
margins
$/bbl
Net Refinery Margin
*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
109,7
108
113,9
114,7
108,1
112
104 106 108 110 112 114 116
Oct
Nov
Dec
15 16
-
11 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
18,74
20,38
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
2015
2016
Diesel
1,23
1,24
0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6
2015
2016
Domestic Jet Fuel
Decline in bunker sales -5,6%
1,92
2,06
0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2
2015
2016
Gasoline
0,52
0,51
0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60
2015
2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.
+8.7 %
-1.6 %+7.1%
+1.3 %
6
-
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)
7
-12
-8
-4
0
Price Differentials, $/bbl
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC
-1,41
-0,53
-1,17
-0,54 -0,73
-0,21
-0,61 -0,94
-0,66
-1,20
-2,04
-1,30
-1,59 -1,66 -1,64 -1,60 -1,78 -1,68
-1,30
-1,76
-2,20
-1,60
-1,40
-1,30
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011-2014 Min/Max 2015 2016
Ural Differentials, $/bbl
-
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)
8
15,214,5
10,913,0
19,418,9
13,8
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
7,3 7,77,9
9,4
11,210,7
14,4
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
12,8
10,20
15,7
15,214,6
10,18,99,2
7,9
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
11,20
-13,2
-15,0
-10,6
-13,1
-12,0-11,6
-5,7
2015 20162011-2014
13,5
10,8
-12,5
-
02 Operations
-
4,55 4,635,41
5,515,60
6,93
7,32 7,42
6,59
6,757,23
7,36
0
2
4
6
8
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 2016
Capacity Utilisation* (%)7
6,8
71
,3
98
,1
10
0,9
2,4
3,6
4,44,4
79,174,9
102,5105,3
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016
Crude Oil Other
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
Production
10
+2,8%
*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
-
3,6 3,95,1 4,1
5,46,4
4,96,8 6,9
4,36,2 6,4
1,11,7
1,8
0,9
1,91,3
1,5
1,2 1,2
1,8
1,7 1,34,7
5,66,9
5
7,3 7,7
6,4
7,9 8,1
6,1
7,9
0
4
8
12
14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Domestic
Export
(Thousand tons)
7,6
Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)
11
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Total Sales
Diesel sales increased by %10,8 to 2.87 million tons compared to Q415. In full year, diesel sales soared by 18%
0,76 0,86 1,00 0,98 1,26 1,23 1,181,50 1,27
0,91 1,131,010,23
0,27 0,43 0,420,63 0,91 0,79
1,08 1,16
0,510,90 0,870,39
0,43 0,45 0,46
0,52 0,55 0,540,60 0,64
0,44
0,50 0,521,481,73
2,271,66
2,232,75
1,83
2,62 2,94
1,73
2,59 2,87
0
4
8
14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Diesel Gasoline Asphalt Jet Fuel
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Domestic sales of selected products
-
Opet
798 830 885 915938 966 1.009
1.073
526 394 394410 418 427
435431
1.3241.224 1.279
1.325 1.3561.393 1.444
1.504
0
300
600
900
1.200
1.500
1.800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Station NumbersOpet Sunpet
12
Market positions as of 31th of
December:
•White Product: 17,7%
•Black Product: 19,4%
-
03Financials
-
Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl
2,453,21
6,476,03
1,67 1,95
4,833,97
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016
12 Month
Tüpraş Net Med Complex
14
2,03
4,565,17
10,06
0,30
3,84 3,54
5,05
0
3
6
9
12
2013 2014 2015 2016
4rd Quarter
Tüpraş Net Med Complex
* Hedge Operations not included
$ / bblGross
MarginInventory
Effect
CleanClean Gross
Margin
CleanClean NET Margin
Med Margin
2015 Q4 10,9 -0,8 11,7 5,9 3,5
2016 Q4 15,0 1,2 13,8 8,9 5,1
-
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q4 (FOB Italy Prices)
Q4
Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl
2016 2015Product Yield %
2016 2015
LPG 362,0 364,0 3,60% -17,2 -11,3
Gasoline 505,0 464,0 20,10% 12,8 13,5
Naptha 421,0 388,7 1,10% -1,9 0,2
Jet Fuel 468,8 417,7 17,50% 10,2 9,4
Diesel 451,2 405,5 32,50% 11,2 10,8
Diesel 1000 442,4 389,7 0,70% 10,0 8,7
Fuel Oil 1% 283,6 202,2 0,20% -5,7 -12,5
Fuel Oil 3,5% 259,7 182,9 18,80% -9,4 -15,5
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 5,6 4,6
Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 49,5 43,7 94,50%
Margin Differences, $/bbl 1,0
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 55,6
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 56,9
Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL 186,6
15
-
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 12M (FOB Italy Prices)
12M
Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl
2016 2015Product Yield %
2016 2015
LPG 308,3 360,7 3,60% -16,2 -20,3
Gasoline 462,3 557,5 20,10% 13,3 16,2
Naptha 366,6 432,9 1,10% -2,3 -3,6
Jet Fuel 408,9 501,9 17,50% 8,3 11,4
Diesel 394,6 494,7 32,50% 9,3 14,0
Diesel 1000 384,9 478,1 0,70% 8,0 11,8
Fuel Oil 1% 222,3 269,1 0,20% -9,4 -11,0
Fuel Oil 3,5% 205,2 255,4 18,80% -12,1 -13,1
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 4,3 6,6
Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 43,7 52,5 94,50%
Margin Differences, $/bbl -2,3
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 213,3
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -495,6
Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL -1.495,5
16
-
Income Statement (In TL)
17
Q4 Q4% Diff. Million TL
12 M
2015
12 M
2016% Diff.
2015 2016
8.898,5 10.759,4 21 Net Sales 36.893 34.855 -6
1.289,5 1.599,4 24 Gross Profit 4.126,4 3.649,2 -12
-282,5 -294,0 4 Operating Expenses -877,1 -995,4 13
177,2 -318,6 -280 Income/Loss from other operations -497,5 -296,5 -40
1.184,1 986,8 -17 Operating Profit 2.751,8 2.357,3 -14
30,6 28,9 -6Income/Loss from equity
investment 72,6 158,9 119
1.214,7 1.015,6 -16Operating Profit Before Fin.
Income/Loss2.824 2.516 -11
-139,5 845,2 -706 Financial Income 862,7 1.173,9 36
-28,2 -965,1 3.319 Finance Expenses -1.461,8 -1.746,1 19
1.047,0 895,7 -14 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 2.225,4 1.944,0 -13
814,9 803,0 -1 Net Profit 2.550,2 1.793,3 -30
1.353,0 1.121,5 -17 EBITDA (mn.TL)-CMB 3.237,8 2.898,3 -10,5
1.181,2 954,1 -19,2 EBITDA (mn.TL)-CMB- CCS 3.373,3 2.486,3 -26,3
1.207,6 1.505,4 24,7 EBITDA *(mn.TL) 3.798,9 3.396,3 -10,6
1.035,7 1.337,9 29,2 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 3.934,5 2.984,3 -24,1
-
Income Statement (In USD)
18
Q4 Q4% Diff. Million USD
12 M
2015
12 M
2016% Diff.
2015 2016
3.031 3.332 10 Net Sales 13.571 11.547 -15
450 510 13 Gross Profit 1.517,8 1.208,9 -20
-99 -91 -8 Operating Expenses -322,6 -329,8 2
71 -106 -249Income/Loss from other
operations -183,0 -98,2 -46
422 314 -26 Operating Profit 1.012,2 780,9 -23
11 8 -24Income/Loss from equity
investment 26,7 52,6 97
433 322 -26Operating Profit Before Fin.
Income/Loss1.039 834 -20
-60 277 -561 Financial Income 317,3 388,9 23
2 -312 -15.676 Finance Expenses -537,7 -578,4 8
375 287 -24 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 818,6 644,0 -21
285 256 -10 Net Profit 938,0 594,1 -37
421,8 480,4 13,9 EBITDA *(mn. $) 1.397,4 1.125,1 -19,5352,2 408,6 16,0 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.432,4 962,0 -32,8
481,4 354,4 -26 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 1.191,0 960,1 -19,4
411,8 282,6 -31,4 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 1.226,0 797,0 -35,0
-
Profit Bridge On Tüpraş 12M
19
2225,41.944,0
487,9
823,5
905,1
48,5
383,4
1.495,5
667,4
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
Profit BeforeTax in 2015
YieldDifference
Crude OilDifferentials
InventoryEffect
TotalExpenditures
Crack MarginDifferences
Pricing ,FOB_CIF Diff &
FX
Others Profit BeforeTax in 2016
Mil. TL
-
20
Financial Highlights (mn $)
95 79 150 150 114153 78
-27
415237
361315 226
410
294106
89
-11
422
480715560
338
1.397
1.125
-200
200
600
1000
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EBITDA
16172
231112
27
7575
171273
113
309 435
175 268
197
27147 91
285
256
817
629 667
938
594
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Income-1
.95
5
57
8
55
1
1.3
40 1.9
94
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63 2.4
52
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
2.2
58
2.3
91
1.7
51
1.7
29
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
Net Debt
0,1
9
0,3
0
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,2
6
0,3
5
0,0
4 0,1
1 0,1
6 0,2
2
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1
20161H
20169M
2016
Return on Average Equity
-
Balance Sheet Analysis
21
2,16
1,721,691,30
1,641,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,641,59
2,45
1,72
0
1
2
3
4Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
1,33
0,93
0,710,520,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,070,88
0,70
0,910,75
0,91
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,4 2,6 2,82,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,9
1,0 0,50,9 0,3 0,3 0,3
0,4 0,5 0,6 0,61,0 1,2
1,10,6
3,43,1
3,73,2 3,2 3,3
3,7 3,6 3,6 3,43,9 4,0
4,2
3,4
0
1
2
3
4
5
Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
3,4
6
3,2
2
3,1
0
3,2
8 3,0
4
2,4
6
1,7
4
1,7
0
1,5
9
1,3
6
1,2
3 1,6
9
1,9
8
2,0
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Payables (Billion $)
-
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
22
Million USD 31.12.2016 31.12.2015 Difference % Difference
Current Assets 3.884 3.007 877 29
Cash & C. Equivalents 1.719 1.041 678 65
Receivables 911 882 29 3
Derivatives 10 6 3 52
Inventories 1.025 723 302 42
Pre-paid expenses 28 37 -9 -25
Other Current Assets 190 317 -126 -40
Long Term Assets 4.987 5.753 -766 -13
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 264 264 0 0
Fixed Assets 3.338 3.950 -612 -15
Derivatives 105 86 19 22
Pre-paid expenses 68 62 6 10
Deferred Tax 917 1.101 -184 -17
Other Long Term Assets 296 291 6 2
Total Assets 8.871 8.760 111 1
Short Term Liabilities 3.597 3.036 561 18
Financial Loans 556 644 -87 -14
Payables 2.020 1.363 657 48
Derivatives 8 14 -6 -40
Deferred Incomes 4 8 -4 -45
Provisions 18 24 -6 -24
Other ST Liabilities 990 984 6 1
Long Term Liabilities 2.953 2.845 107 4
Financial Loans 2.892 2.768 124 4
Payables & Provisions 59 67 -8 -12
Derivatives 1 9 -9 -95
Other LT Liabilities 2 1 0 7
Equity 2.298 2.856 -558 -20
Minority Interests 22 22 1 3
Total Liabilities 8.871 8.760 111 1
-
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2016)
23*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,426 mn $
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,627
RUP Loans: 1,260
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 667
ST Financials 426
• RUP 296
Payables
1.092
Forward & CFH
1,830
Stock
988
Receivables & otherassets
117
Cash
1.161
Million $
-49 million $
-
Future Expectations
Brent PriceEstimation
• The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel on average.
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4.0 –4,5 dollars per barrel band in 2017.
TüpraşNet Margin
• Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 5.75 – 6.25 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
Expectations for 2017;
• Full Capacity Utilization
• Production: approximately 29,2 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
• Total sales: 30.6 million tons
Investment • Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million USD investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.
24
-
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is
believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may
be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could
cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person
shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
25
-
Extras
-
4rd Quarter Product Yields
White Product 77.49%
Production 7.33 mn ton
API:30.27
White Product 77.57%
Production 7.31 mn ton
API:30.10
Gasoline20,3%
Naphtha1,2%
Jet14,3%
Diesel38,5%
Other1,2%
LPG3,3%
Coke3,1%
Fuel Oil5,0%
Bitumen13,1%
Light Distil.21,5%
Mid. Distil.52,8%
Other4,5%
Black Prod.21,2%
2015 2016
27
Gasoline20,9%
Naphtha0,6%
Jet17,6%
Diesel34,6%
Other1,4%
LPG3,4%
Coke2,9%
Fuel Oil7,0%
Bitumen11,5%
Light Distil.21,5%
Mid. Distil.52,3%
Other4,8%
Black Prod.21,4%
-
Product Yields
White Product 75,43%
Production 27,27 mn ton
API:31,35
White Product 76,57%
Production 27,93 mn ton
API:30,62
Gasoline20,9%
Naphtha1,1%
Jet16,5%
Diesel33,9%
Other5,3%
Coke2,5%
Fuel Oil7,2%
ASRFO+Vac0,3%
Bitumen12,4%
Light Distil.22,0%
Mid. Distil.50,4%
Other5,3%
Black Prod.22,3%
2015 2016
28
Gasoline20,6%
Naphtha1,0%
Jet19,0%
Diesel30,5%
Other5,2%
Coke1,8%
Fuel Oil10,8%
ASRFO+Vac0,4%
Bitumen10,7%
Light Distil.21,6%
Mid. Distil.49,6%
Other5,2%
Black Prod.23,6%
-
52,0%
41,7%
42,4%
41,0%
Crude Oil (12M)
29
2015 2016
We are dealing with 65 trading crude oil in Med
37,7%
41,7%
2014
APIAPI>30
API>34 20,6%
16,6% 6,3%
Increased heavy crude
supply by 14,2 % after RUP
-
Production (million tons)
0,7 0,9 1,0 0,9 1,01,3 1,6 1,3 1,0 1,3 1,3 1,0
1,2 1,31,4 1,4 1,6
1,82,3 2,5
2,02,1 2,4 2,81,9
2,22,5 2,3 2,5
3,1
3,8 3,8
3,03,4
3,7 3,9
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16
Middle Distillate
Jet Diesel
0,9 1,01,2 1,3 1,2 1,3
1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,5
1,0 1,01,2 1,3 1,3
1,41,6 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,6
1,6
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16
Light Distillate
Gasoline Naphtha
0,8 0,8 0,81,1 1,0 1,1
0,3 0,5
1,0
0,4 0,3 0,4
0,4 0,40,6
0,50,4
0,7
0,90,8
0,6
0,8 1,0 1,0
1,3 1,21,4
1,61,4
1,9
1,5 1,61,7
1,41,5
1,6
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16
Black Product
Fuel Oil Bitumen Coke
32,532,9
31,8 31,9
33,1
32,2
30,3 30,3
31,130,8
30,530,1
27,5
28,5
29,5
30,5
31,5
32,5
33,5
34,5
Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4
Crude Oil API
2014 2015 2016
30
-
Product Yields
17% 20% 19% 17% 18% 19%21%
18% 16%19% 18% 14%
27%27% 27%
26%28% 27%
31%35%
30%
32% 34% 39%
43%47% 46%
43%46% 46%
53% 52%
45%
51% 52% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16
Middle Distillate
Jet Diesel
21% 21%22% 23% 22%
20% 20%21% 22% 21% 21% 20%
22% 21%22%
23% 23%
21% 21% 22%22% 23% 22% 22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16
Light Distillate
Gasoline Naphtha
19% 17%14%
20% 18% 17%
5%7%
15%
5% 5% 5%
9%9%
12%
8%7% 10%
13%11%
9%
13% 14% 13%
1%
3% 3%
1%
3% 3% 3%
28%26% 26%
29%
26%27%
21% 21%
26%
21% 22% 21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16
Black Product
Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke
32,532,9
31,8 31,9
33,1
32,2
30,3 30,3
31,130,8
30,530,1
27,5
28,5
29,5
30,5
31,5
32,5
33,5
34,5
Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4
Crude Oil API
2014 2015 2016
31
-
Domestic Sales1
.03
1
246
2.0
43
4.9
88
10
8
9.1
50
1.1
91
2.8
71
420
19
7
1.1
26
21
9
2.1
55
5.0
07
78
10
.81
2
1.3
43
3.3
67
47
7
18
0
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
2015 2016
Export Volumes
3.137
349
2.551
456
2.888
262
1.493
848
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
Gasoline MiddleDist.
Fuel Oil Other
2015 2016
Sales (Thousand Tons)
32
2015 : 22.2 mn tons
2016 : 24.8 mn tons
2015 : 6.4 mn tons
2016 : 5.5 mn tons
-
Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for 2016
26,0
39,9
36,2
50,6
40,3
49,8
51,6
41,9
55,4
3,06
2,80
3,08
3,07
3,54 3,54
2,77
2,82
2,87
2,92
2,97
3,02
3,07
3,12
3,17
3,22
3,27
3,32
3,37
3,42
3,47
3,52
3,57
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60 Brent Crude Price
TL/Dollar
33
-
Trading Activities
93
637
804
49
588
61 30112
465
1.097
0
1.240
203
00
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
Product Imports, Ton*000
2015
2016
671
67
628
50
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
HVGO LCGO+CO
Intermediate Imports, Ton*000
2015 2016
Finished Products
Because of low desulfurisation
margin in High Sulfur Diesel imports,
ULSD imports were increased in
paralel to the sales volume rise.
Intermediates
We have purchased HVGO + LCGO
for the conversion units after RUP.
34
-
Quarterly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/Crude $/bbl)
1,071,12
1,15 1,13
1,24
1,31
1,38
1,32
1,45
1,32
1,24 1,26
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gasoline
2013 2014 2015 2016
1,141,12
1,16
1,21
1,29
1,25
1,29
1,251,231,20 1,20
1,23
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel
2013 2014 2015 2016
1,121,10
1,15
1,21
1,27
1,18
1,21 1,221,22
1,17 1,17
1,21
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jet Fuel
2013 2014 2015 2016
0,81 0,810,85 0,800,78 0,80
0,740,640,61
0,67 0,770,80
0,00
0,30
0,60
0,90
1,20
1,50
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Fuel Oil
2013 2014 2015 2016
35
-
Inventory Effect* Analysis
*FX effect Included, hedging excluded1
2015 2016
$ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total
1st Quarter -35,1 -35,1 -70,2 -9,0 -13,4 -22,4
2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 70,1 117,0
3rd Quarter -45,9 -55,7 -101,6 2,3 12,8 15,2
4rth Quarter -42,8 -40,7 -83,5 64,8 58,5 123,4
Sep -5,2 0,9 -4,3 20,4 11,7 32,1
Nov -10,6 -17,4 -28,1 8,3 4,9 13,2
Dec -27,0 -24,2 -51,1 36,2 41,9 78,1
12 Months -95,6 -92,5 -188,1 105,1 128,0 233,1