results for q4 2016 analyst teleconference...11 months 2016 - turkish consumption (million...

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RESULTS FOR Q4 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE

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  • RESULTS FOR Q4 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE

  • 02 Operation

    03Financials

    01Market

  • 01Market

  • 4

    2016 Fourth Quarter Market Conditions

    Postponed Maintenances

    Started to take place

    High Agricultural

    Demand

    Normalized Seasonal

    Demand with El Nino fading

    away

    Industrially Driven Asian Growth and

    Stronger European Demand

    OPEC & Non OPEC Supply

    Cut

    • FED Rate Hikes

    • Emerging Markets Slow

    Down

    • Brexit

    Stock levels were still

    higher

    Global Terrorism

    Fluctuation in currency &

    prices

    High Production of

    OPEC & Russia before cut / Increase in rig counts

    in USA

    Product Market Crude Oil

  • Key Highlights in Q4

    5

    Diesel Sales

    Capacity Utilization*

    100% Capacity

    Utilization Target has

    been achieved

    862

    803

    876

    956913

    951

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    Oct Nov Dec

    15 16Thousand

    tons

    Diesel sales

    increased by 11%

    6,4 6,2

    2,9

    10,1 10,2 9,9

    0

    4

    8

    12

    Oct Nov Dec

    15 16

    Strong net refinery

    margins

    $/bbl

    Net Refinery Margin

    *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.

    109,7

    108

    113,9

    114,7

    108,1

    112

    104 106 108 110 112 114 116

    Oct

    Nov

    Dec

    15 16

  • 11 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)

    18,74

    20,38

    10 12 14 16 18 20 22

    2015

    2016

    Diesel

    1,23

    1,24

    0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6

    2015

    2016

    Domestic Jet Fuel

    Decline in bunker sales -5,6%

    1,92

    2,06

    0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2

    2015

    2016

    Gasoline

    0,52

    0,51

    0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60

    2015

    2016

    Fuel Oil*

    Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.

    +8.7 %

    -1.6 %+7.1%

    +1.3 %

    6

  • Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)

    7

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    Price Differentials, $/bbl

    Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC

    -1,41

    -0,53

    -1,17

    -0,54 -0,73

    -0,21

    -0,61 -0,94

    -0,66

    -1,20

    -2,04

    -1,30

    -1,59 -1,66 -1,64 -1,60 -1,78 -1,68

    -1,30

    -1,76

    -2,20

    -1,60

    -1,40

    -1,30

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    2011-2014 Min/Max 2015 2016

    Ural Differentials, $/bbl

  • Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)

    8

    15,214,5

    10,913,0

    19,418,9

    13,8

    Q1 Q4Q3Q2

    Q1 Q4Q3Q2

    7,3 7,77,9

    9,4

    11,210,7

    14,4

    Q1 Q4Q3Q2

    12,8

    10,20

    15,7

    15,214,6

    10,18,99,2

    7,9

    Q1 Q4Q3Q2

    11,20

    -13,2

    -15,0

    -10,6

    -13,1

    -12,0-11,6

    -5,7

    2015 20162011-2014

    13,5

    10,8

    -12,5

  • 02 Operations

  • 4,55 4,635,41

    5,515,60

    6,93

    7,32 7,42

    6,59

    6,757,23

    7,36

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

    Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 2016

    Capacity Utilisation* (%)7

    6,8

    71

    ,3

    98

    ,1

    10

    0,9

    2,4

    3,6

    4,44,4

    79,174,9

    102,5105,3

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    Crude Oil Other

    Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)

    Production

    10

    +2,8%

    *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.

  • 3,6 3,95,1 4,1

    5,46,4

    4,96,8 6,9

    4,36,2 6,4

    1,11,7

    1,8

    0,9

    1,91,3

    1,5

    1,2 1,2

    1,8

    1,7 1,34,7

    5,66,9

    5

    7,3 7,7

    6,4

    7,9 8,1

    6,1

    7,9

    0

    4

    8

    12

    14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16

    Domestic

    Export

    (Thousand tons)

    7,6

    Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)

    11

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Total Sales

    Diesel sales increased by %10,8 to 2.87 million tons compared to Q415. In full year, diesel sales soared by 18%

    0,76 0,86 1,00 0,98 1,26 1,23 1,181,50 1,27

    0,91 1,131,010,23

    0,27 0,43 0,420,63 0,91 0,79

    1,08 1,16

    0,510,90 0,870,39

    0,43 0,45 0,46

    0,52 0,55 0,540,60 0,64

    0,44

    0,50 0,521,481,73

    2,271,66

    2,232,75

    1,83

    2,62 2,94

    1,73

    2,59 2,87

    0

    4

    8

    14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16

    Diesel Gasoline Asphalt Jet Fuel

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Domestic sales of selected products

  • Opet

    798 830 885 915938 966 1.009

    1.073

    526 394 394410 418 427

    435431

    1.3241.224 1.279

    1.325 1.3561.393 1.444

    1.504

    0

    300

    600

    900

    1.200

    1.500

    1.800

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Station NumbersOpet Sunpet

    12

    Market positions as of 31th of

    December:

    •White Product: 17,7%

    •Black Product: 19,4%

  • 03Financials

  • Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl

    2,453,21

    6,476,03

    1,67 1,95

    4,833,97

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    12 Month

    Tüpraş Net Med Complex

    14

    2,03

    4,565,17

    10,06

    0,30

    3,84 3,54

    5,05

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    4rd Quarter

    Tüpraş Net Med Complex

    * Hedge Operations not included

    $ / bblGross

    MarginInventory

    Effect

    CleanClean Gross

    Margin

    CleanClean NET Margin

    Med Margin

    2015 Q4 10,9 -0,8 11,7 5,9 3,5

    2016 Q4 15,0 1,2 13,8 8,9 5,1

  • Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q4 (FOB Italy Prices)

    Q4

    Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl

    2016 2015Product Yield %

    2016 2015

    LPG 362,0 364,0 3,60% -17,2 -11,3

    Gasoline 505,0 464,0 20,10% 12,8 13,5

    Naptha 421,0 388,7 1,10% -1,9 0,2

    Jet Fuel 468,8 417,7 17,50% 10,2 9,4

    Diesel 451,2 405,5 32,50% 11,2 10,8

    Diesel 1000 442,4 389,7 0,70% 10,0 8,7

    Fuel Oil 1% 283,6 202,2 0,20% -5,7 -12,5

    Fuel Oil 3,5% 259,7 182,9 18,80% -9,4 -15,5

    Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 5,6 4,6

    Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 49,5 43,7 94,50%

    Margin Differences, $/bbl 1,0

    Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 55,6

    Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 56,9

    Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL 186,6

    15

  • Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 12M (FOB Italy Prices)

    12M

    Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl

    2016 2015Product Yield %

    2016 2015

    LPG 308,3 360,7 3,60% -16,2 -20,3

    Gasoline 462,3 557,5 20,10% 13,3 16,2

    Naptha 366,6 432,9 1,10% -2,3 -3,6

    Jet Fuel 408,9 501,9 17,50% 8,3 11,4

    Diesel 394,6 494,7 32,50% 9,3 14,0

    Diesel 1000 384,9 478,1 0,70% 8,0 11,8

    Fuel Oil 1% 222,3 269,1 0,20% -9,4 -11,0

    Fuel Oil 3,5% 205,2 255,4 18,80% -12,1 -13,1

    Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 4,3 6,6

    Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 43,7 52,5 94,50%

    Margin Differences, $/bbl -2,3

    Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 213,3

    Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -495,6

    Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL -1.495,5

    16

  • Income Statement (In TL)

    17

    Q4 Q4% Diff. Million TL

    12 M

    2015

    12 M

    2016% Diff.

    2015 2016

    8.898,5 10.759,4 21 Net Sales 36.893 34.855 -6

    1.289,5 1.599,4 24 Gross Profit 4.126,4 3.649,2 -12

    -282,5 -294,0 4 Operating Expenses -877,1 -995,4 13

    177,2 -318,6 -280 Income/Loss from other operations -497,5 -296,5 -40

    1.184,1 986,8 -17 Operating Profit 2.751,8 2.357,3 -14

    30,6 28,9 -6Income/Loss from equity

    investment 72,6 158,9 119

    1.214,7 1.015,6 -16Operating Profit Before Fin.

    Income/Loss2.824 2.516 -11

    -139,5 845,2 -706 Financial Income 862,7 1.173,9 36

    -28,2 -965,1 3.319 Finance Expenses -1.461,8 -1.746,1 19

    1.047,0 895,7 -14 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 2.225,4 1.944,0 -13

    814,9 803,0 -1 Net Profit 2.550,2 1.793,3 -30

    1.353,0 1.121,5 -17 EBITDA (mn.TL)-CMB 3.237,8 2.898,3 -10,5

    1.181,2 954,1 -19,2 EBITDA (mn.TL)-CMB- CCS 3.373,3 2.486,3 -26,3

    1.207,6 1.505,4 24,7 EBITDA *(mn.TL) 3.798,9 3.396,3 -10,6

    1.035,7 1.337,9 29,2 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 3.934,5 2.984,3 -24,1

  • Income Statement (In USD)

    18

    Q4 Q4% Diff. Million USD

    12 M

    2015

    12 M

    2016% Diff.

    2015 2016

    3.031 3.332 10 Net Sales 13.571 11.547 -15

    450 510 13 Gross Profit 1.517,8 1.208,9 -20

    -99 -91 -8 Operating Expenses -322,6 -329,8 2

    71 -106 -249Income/Loss from other

    operations -183,0 -98,2 -46

    422 314 -26 Operating Profit 1.012,2 780,9 -23

    11 8 -24Income/Loss from equity

    investment 26,7 52,6 97

    433 322 -26Operating Profit Before Fin.

    Income/Loss1.039 834 -20

    -60 277 -561 Financial Income 317,3 388,9 23

    2 -312 -15.676 Finance Expenses -537,7 -578,4 8

    375 287 -24 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 818,6 644,0 -21

    285 256 -10 Net Profit 938,0 594,1 -37

    421,8 480,4 13,9 EBITDA *(mn. $) 1.397,4 1.125,1 -19,5352,2 408,6 16,0 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.432,4 962,0 -32,8

    481,4 354,4 -26 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 1.191,0 960,1 -19,4

    411,8 282,6 -31,4 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 1.226,0 797,0 -35,0

  • Profit Bridge On Tüpraş 12M

    19

    2225,41.944,0

    487,9

    823,5

    905,1

    48,5

    383,4

    1.495,5

    667,4

    0

    500

    1.000

    1.500

    2.000

    2.500

    3.000

    3.500

    4.000

    4.500

    5.000

    Profit BeforeTax in 2015

    YieldDifference

    Crude OilDifferentials

    InventoryEffect

    TotalExpenditures

    Crack MarginDifferences

    Pricing ,FOB_CIF Diff &

    FX

    Others Profit BeforeTax in 2016

    Mil. TL

  • 20

    Financial Highlights (mn $)

    95 79 150 150 114153 78

    -27

    415237

    361315 226

    410

    294106

    89

    -11

    422

    480715560

    338

    1.397

    1.125

    -200

    200

    600

    1000

    1400

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    EBITDA

    16172

    231112

    27

    7575

    171273

    113

    309 435

    175 268

    197

    27147 91

    285

    256

    817

    629 667

    938

    594

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Net Income-1

    .95

    5

    57

    8

    55

    1

    1.3

    40 1.9

    94

    1.8

    69

    1.5

    98

    1.6

    63 2.4

    52

    2.5

    77

    2.7

    48

    2.3

    70

    2.2

    58

    2.3

    91

    1.7

    51

    1.7

    29

    -3.000

    -2.000

    -1.000

    0

    1.000

    2.000

    3.000

    Net Debt

    0,1

    9

    0,3

    0

    0,3

    2

    0,2

    4

    0,2

    6

    0,3

    5

    0,0

    4 0,1

    1 0,1

    6 0,2

    2

    0,00

    0,05

    0,10

    0,15

    0,20

    0,25

    0,30

    0,35

    0,40

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1

    20161H

    20169M

    2016

    Return on Average Equity

  • Balance Sheet Analysis

    21

    2,16

    1,721,691,30

    1,641,68

    1,211,04

    0,821,04

    1,641,59

    2,45

    1,72

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)

    1,33

    0,93

    0,710,520,51

    0,090,20

    0,66

    1,070,88

    0,70

    0,910,75

    0,91

    0,0

    0,4

    0,8

    1,2

    1,6

    2,0

    Receivables (Billion $)

    2,4 2,6 2,82,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,9

    1,0 0,50,9 0,3 0,3 0,3

    0,4 0,5 0,6 0,61,0 1,2

    1,10,6

    3,43,1

    3,73,2 3,2 3,3

    3,7 3,6 3,6 3,43,9 4,0

    4,2

    3,4

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Financial Loans (Billion $)

    LT Loans ST Loans

    3,4

    6

    3,2

    2

    3,1

    0

    3,2

    8 3,0

    4

    2,4

    6

    1,7

    4

    1,7

    0

    1,5

    9

    1,3

    6

    1,2

    3 1,6

    9

    1,9

    8

    2,0

    2

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Payables (Billion $)

  • Tüpraş Balance Sheet

    22

    Million USD 31.12.2016 31.12.2015 Difference % Difference

    Current Assets 3.884 3.007 877 29

    Cash & C. Equivalents 1.719 1.041 678 65

    Receivables 911 882 29 3

    Derivatives 10 6 3 52

    Inventories 1.025 723 302 42

    Pre-paid expenses 28 37 -9 -25

    Other Current Assets 190 317 -126 -40

    Long Term Assets 4.987 5.753 -766 -13

    Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 264 264 0 0

    Fixed Assets 3.338 3.950 -612 -15

    Derivatives 105 86 19 22

    Pre-paid expenses 68 62 6 10

    Deferred Tax 917 1.101 -184 -17

    Other Long Term Assets 296 291 6 2

    Total Assets 8.871 8.760 111 1

    Short Term Liabilities 3.597 3.036 561 18

    Financial Loans 556 644 -87 -14

    Payables 2.020 1.363 657 48

    Derivatives 8 14 -6 -40

    Deferred Incomes 4 8 -4 -45

    Provisions 18 24 -6 -24

    Other ST Liabilities 990 984 6 1

    Long Term Liabilities 2.953 2.845 107 4

    Financial Loans 2.892 2.768 124 4

    Payables & Provisions 59 67 -8 -12

    Derivatives 1 9 -9 -95

    Other LT Liabilities 2 1 0 7

    Equity 2.298 2.856 -558 -20

    Minority Interests 22 22 1 3

    Total Liabilities 8.871 8.760 111 1

  • FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2016)

    23*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,426 mn $

    ConsolidatedAssets

    ConsolidatedLiabilities

    LT Financials: 2,627

    RUP Loans: 1,260

    Eurobond: 700

    Other credits 667

    ST Financials 426

    • RUP 296

    Payables

    1.092

    Forward & CFH

    1,830

    Stock

    988

    Receivables & otherassets

    117

    Cash

    1.161

    Million $

    -49 million $

  • Future Expectations

    Brent PriceEstimation

    • The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel on average.

    Med Complex Margin

    • We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4.0 –4,5 dollars per barrel band in 2017.

    TüpraşNet Margin

    • Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 5.75 – 6.25 dollars per barrel

    Capacity Utilisation

    Expectations for 2017;

    • Full Capacity Utilization

    • Production: approximately 29,2 million tons

    • Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production

    • Total sales: 30.6 million tons

    Investment • Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million USD investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.

    24

  • Disclaimer

    This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company

    management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is

    believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may

    be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could

    cause actual results to differ materially.

    Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person

    shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

    25

  • Extras

  • 4rd Quarter Product Yields

    White Product 77.49%

    Production 7.33 mn ton

    API:30.27

    White Product 77.57%

    Production 7.31 mn ton

    API:30.10

    Gasoline20,3%

    Naphtha1,2%

    Jet14,3%

    Diesel38,5%

    Other1,2%

    LPG3,3%

    Coke3,1%

    Fuel Oil5,0%

    Bitumen13,1%

    Light Distil.21,5%

    Mid. Distil.52,8%

    Other4,5%

    Black Prod.21,2%

    2015 2016

    27

    Gasoline20,9%

    Naphtha0,6%

    Jet17,6%

    Diesel34,6%

    Other1,4%

    LPG3,4%

    Coke2,9%

    Fuel Oil7,0%

    Bitumen11,5%

    Light Distil.21,5%

    Mid. Distil.52,3%

    Other4,8%

    Black Prod.21,4%

  • Product Yields

    White Product 75,43%

    Production 27,27 mn ton

    API:31,35

    White Product 76,57%

    Production 27,93 mn ton

    API:30,62

    Gasoline20,9%

    Naphtha1,1%

    Jet16,5%

    Diesel33,9%

    Other5,3%

    Coke2,5%

    Fuel Oil7,2%

    ASRFO+Vac0,3%

    Bitumen12,4%

    Light Distil.22,0%

    Mid. Distil.50,4%

    Other5,3%

    Black Prod.22,3%

    2015 2016

    28

    Gasoline20,6%

    Naphtha1,0%

    Jet19,0%

    Diesel30,5%

    Other5,2%

    Coke1,8%

    Fuel Oil10,8%

    ASRFO+Vac0,4%

    Bitumen10,7%

    Light Distil.21,6%

    Mid. Distil.49,6%

    Other5,2%

    Black Prod.23,6%

  • 52,0%

    41,7%

    42,4%

    41,0%

    Crude Oil (12M)

    29

    2015 2016

    We are dealing with 65 trading crude oil in Med

    37,7%

    41,7%

    2014

    APIAPI>30

    API>34 20,6%

    16,6% 6,3%

    Increased heavy crude

    supply by 14,2 % after RUP

  • Production (million tons)

    0,7 0,9 1,0 0,9 1,01,3 1,6 1,3 1,0 1,3 1,3 1,0

    1,2 1,31,4 1,4 1,6

    1,82,3 2,5

    2,02,1 2,4 2,81,9

    2,22,5 2,3 2,5

    3,1

    3,8 3,8

    3,03,4

    3,7 3,9

    0,0

    1,0

    2,0

    3,0

    4,0

    5,0

    Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16

    Middle Distillate

    Jet Diesel

    0,9 1,01,2 1,3 1,2 1,3

    1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,5

    1,0 1,01,2 1,3 1,3

    1,41,6 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,6

    1,6

    0,0

    0,5

    1,0

    1,5

    2,0

    Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16

    Light Distillate

    Gasoline Naphtha

    0,8 0,8 0,81,1 1,0 1,1

    0,3 0,5

    1,0

    0,4 0,3 0,4

    0,4 0,40,6

    0,50,4

    0,7

    0,90,8

    0,6

    0,8 1,0 1,0

    1,3 1,21,4

    1,61,4

    1,9

    1,5 1,61,7

    1,41,5

    1,6

    0,0

    0,5

    1,0

    1,5

    2,0

    Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16

    Black Product

    Fuel Oil Bitumen Coke

    32,532,9

    31,8 31,9

    33,1

    32,2

    30,3 30,3

    31,130,8

    30,530,1

    27,5

    28,5

    29,5

    30,5

    31,5

    32,5

    33,5

    34,5

    Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

    Crude Oil API

    2014 2015 2016

    30

  • Product Yields

    17% 20% 19% 17% 18% 19%21%

    18% 16%19% 18% 14%

    27%27% 27%

    26%28% 27%

    31%35%

    30%

    32% 34% 39%

    43%47% 46%

    43%46% 46%

    53% 52%

    45%

    51% 52% 53%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16

    Middle Distillate

    Jet Diesel

    21% 21%22% 23% 22%

    20% 20%21% 22% 21% 21% 20%

    22% 21%22%

    23% 23%

    21% 21% 22%22% 23% 22% 22%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16

    Light Distillate

    Gasoline Naphtha

    19% 17%14%

    20% 18% 17%

    5%7%

    15%

    5% 5% 5%

    9%9%

    12%

    8%7% 10%

    13%11%

    9%

    13% 14% 13%

    1%

    3% 3%

    1%

    3% 3% 3%

    28%26% 26%

    29%

    26%27%

    21% 21%

    26%

    21% 22% 21%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16

    Black Product

    Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke

    32,532,9

    31,8 31,9

    33,1

    32,2

    30,3 30,3

    31,130,8

    30,530,1

    27,5

    28,5

    29,5

    30,5

    31,5

    32,5

    33,5

    34,5

    Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

    Crude Oil API

    2014 2015 2016

    31

  • Domestic Sales1

    .03

    1

    246

    2.0

    43

    4.9

    88

    10

    8

    9.1

    50

    1.1

    91

    2.8

    71

    420

    19

    7

    1.1

    26

    21

    9

    2.1

    55

    5.0

    07

    78

    10

    .81

    2

    1.3

    43

    3.3

    67

    47

    7

    18

    0

    0

    2.000

    4.000

    6.000

    8.000

    10.000

    12.000

    2015 2016

    Export Volumes

    3.137

    349

    2.551

    456

    2.888

    262

    1.493

    848

    0

    500

    1.000

    1.500

    2.000

    2.500

    3.000

    3.500

    Gasoline MiddleDist.

    Fuel Oil Other

    2015 2016

    Sales (Thousand Tons)

    32

    2015 : 22.2 mn tons

    2016 : 24.8 mn tons

    2015 : 6.4 mn tons

    2016 : 5.5 mn tons

  • Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for 2016

    26,0

    39,9

    36,2

    50,6

    40,3

    49,8

    51,6

    41,9

    55,4

    3,06

    2,80

    3,08

    3,07

    3,54 3,54

    2,77

    2,82

    2,87

    2,92

    2,97

    3,02

    3,07

    3,12

    3,17

    3,22

    3,27

    3,32

    3,37

    3,42

    3,47

    3,52

    3,57

    24

    28

    32

    36

    40

    44

    48

    52

    56

    60 Brent Crude Price

    TL/Dollar

    33

  • Trading Activities

    93

    637

    804

    49

    588

    61 30112

    465

    1.097

    0

    1.240

    203

    00

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1.000

    1.200

    1.400

    Product Imports, Ton*000

    2015

    2016

    671

    67

    628

    50

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    HVGO LCGO+CO

    Intermediate Imports, Ton*000

    2015 2016

    Finished Products

    Because of low desulfurisation

    margin in High Sulfur Diesel imports,

    ULSD imports were increased in

    paralel to the sales volume rise.

    Intermediates

    We have purchased HVGO + LCGO

    for the conversion units after RUP.

    34

  • Quarterly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/Crude $/bbl)

    1,071,12

    1,15 1,13

    1,24

    1,31

    1,38

    1,32

    1,45

    1,32

    1,24 1,26

    1,00

    1,10

    1,20

    1,30

    1,40

    1,50

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Gasoline

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    1,141,12

    1,16

    1,21

    1,29

    1,25

    1,29

    1,251,231,20 1,20

    1,23

    1,00

    1,05

    1,10

    1,15

    1,20

    1,25

    1,30

    1,35

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Diesel

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    1,121,10

    1,15

    1,21

    1,27

    1,18

    1,21 1,221,22

    1,17 1,17

    1,21

    1,00

    1,05

    1,10

    1,15

    1,20

    1,25

    1,30

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Jet Fuel

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    0,81 0,810,85 0,800,78 0,80

    0,740,640,61

    0,67 0,770,80

    0,00

    0,30

    0,60

    0,90

    1,20

    1,50

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Fuel Oil

    2013 2014 2015 2016

    35

  • Inventory Effect* Analysis

    *FX effect Included, hedging excluded1

    2015 2016

    $ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total

    1st Quarter -35,1 -35,1 -70,2 -9,0 -13,4 -22,4

    2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 70,1 117,0

    3rd Quarter -45,9 -55,7 -101,6 2,3 12,8 15,2

    4rth Quarter -42,8 -40,7 -83,5 64,8 58,5 123,4

    Sep -5,2 0,9 -4,3 20,4 11,7 32,1

    Nov -10,6 -17,4 -28,1 8,3 4,9 13,2

    Dec -27,0 -24,2 -51,1 36,2 41,9 78,1

    12 Months -95,6 -92,5 -188,1 105,1 128,0 233,1