February2017

ResponsebytheInfrastructureTransitionsResearchConsortiumtotheCallforEvidencebytheNationalInfrastructureCommissionontheNationalInfrastructureAssessmentJimHall,MattIves,NickEyre:UniversityofOxfordEdOughton:UniversityofCambridgeModassarChaudry:CardiffUniversitySimonBlainey,JohnPreston,GeoffWatson,AnneStringfellow,WilliamPowrie,KeironRoberts:UniversityofSouthamptonRalitsaHiteva,KatLovell,JimWatson:UniversityofSussex

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ResponsebytheInfrastructureTransitionsResearchConsortiumtotheCallforEvidencebytheNationalInfrastructureCommissionontheNationalInfrastructureAssessment,February2017

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-infrastructure-assessment-call-for-evidence

ContributorsJimHall,MattIves,NickEyre:UniversityofOxfordEdOughton:UniversityofCambridgeModassarChaudry:CardiffUniversitySimonBlainey,JohnPreston,GeoffWatson,AnneStringfellow,WilliamPowrie,KeironRoberts:UniversityofSouthamptonRalitsaHiteva,KatLovell,JimWatson:UniversityofSussex

Introduction

ThisresponsetotheNationalInfrastructureCommission’scallforevidencefortheNationalInfrastructureAssessment(NIA)hasbeenproducedbytheUKInfrastructureTransitionsResearchConsortium(ITRC).TheUKInfrastructureTransitionsResearchConsortium(ITRC)isaconsortiumofsevenUKuniversities(Oxford,Cambridge,Cardiff,Leeds,Newcastle,Southampton,Sussex)fundedbytheEngineeringandPhysicalSciencesResearchCouncil(EPSRC)to“developanddemonstrateanewgenerationofsimulationmodelsandtoolstoinformtheanalysis,planninganddesignofnationalinfrastructure”.Sincebeginningin2011theITRChasdevelopedtheNISMODnationalinfrastructuresystemmodel,alongwithaseriesofotherinnovationsininterdisciplinarysystemsresearch.InthisresponsetothecallforevidenceontheNIAwedrawtheCommission’sattentiontothemostrelevantaspectsofthatresearch.WeofferourcontinuedsupportastheNIAproceeds.

Inourresearchwehaveemphasisedtheimportanceoftakinga‘system-of-systems’perspectivethatintegratesacrossinfrastructuresectorsbasedongeneralframeworksandprinciples.TheconsultationontheNationalInfrastructureAssessmentthatwaspublishedin2016proposedaframeworkfortheNIAthatwascloselyalignedwiththeapproachthatwehavedeveloped,whilstadvancinguponitinsomeimportantways.TheconsultationquestionsinthisCallforEvidencearewide-rangingandalignlessrigorouslywithalogicalframework.WetrustthattheNICwilladoptacoherentlogicalstructurefortheanalysisandrecommendationsintheNIA.

Allofthecitedreferencescanbemadeavailableonrequest.ForfurtherinformationcontactProfJimHall:jim.hall@eci.ox.ac.ukorMiriamMendesmiriam.mendes@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Ourresponseisstructuredaroundthequestionsintheconsultationdocument.

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Cross-cuttingissues

1:Whatarethehighestvalueinfrastructureinvestmentsthatwouldsupportlong-termsustainablegrowthinyourcityorregion?

InITRCwehaveadoptedamulti-attributeperspectiveonvalue,basedaroundthedimensionsofthe‘trilemma’:

1. Securityofsupply,accessibilityandqualityofservice2. Affordabilityandeconomicefficiency3. Environmentalimpactandsustainability

Valueformoneyshouldbeconsideredinthesebroadterms,tohelpnavigateinevitabletrade-offsbetweenalternativeinvestments/policiesandinspaceandtime(Halletal.,2017b).Wehavesoughttoapplyaconsistentsetofmetricsacrossinfrastructuresectors(Halletal.,2016)baseduponthedimensionsofthetrilemma.

Wewelcomethefocusuponthelongtermanduponsustainability.Mostinfrastructureplanningandinvestmentdecisionshavelongtermimplications.Theyaredifficultdecisionsbecauseoftheuncertaintiesinfactorsthatwillinfluencethelongtermperformanceofinfrastructure(likeclimatechangeandpopulationgrowth)(Ottoetal.,2014,Halletal.,2012b).Inthefaceoftheseuncertainties,attentiontoflexibilityininfrastructureassetscanprovideopportunitiestoincreaseeconomic,environmentalandsocialreturns(YoungandHall,2015).Carefulconsiderationshouldbegiventoincorporatingdesignsandpractices(evenintheeventofhigherinstallationcosts)thatenablesystemadaptationtochangingpolicy,economicandsocialconditions(HinoandHall,2017).Whatisconsideredthehighestvalueinvestmentnowmightnotbesoin5or10years’timeduetochangesindemand,technologyorpolicygoals.Examplesincludemodularityindesignandopeningsforexperimentation(thiscouldbeinpolicy,operation,design,usage,governance,regulation…etc.).Usingtheexampleoflow-carboninfrastructureHitevaetal.(2017)identifyakeyopportunityforsuccessfullymatchinginfrastructureinvestmentstosocietalneeds.Thisadvocatesaddressingtheoftendescribedinvestmentgapininfrastructuresimultaneouslywithaninstitutionalgapininfrastructuredevelopmentanddecision-making.Wherepossible,decisionmakingshouldavoidtechnologicallock-inandpreventpathdependence,buildinginsystemflexibility.AnexampleofmissedopportunitiesforcreatingvaluefrominfrastructureinvestmentistheconstructionofunilateraltransmissionconnectionswithlimitedcapacitybetweenoffshorewindfarmsandtheonshoregridsundertheOFTOregime,thusprecludingtheirusageasconnectorsandpartofaSupergrid(Hiteva,2013).

2.HowshouldinfrastructuremosteffectivelycontributetotheUK’sinternationalcompetitiveness?Whatistheroleofinternationalgatewaysforpassengers,freightanddatainensuringthis?

InthefirstphaseoftheITRCprogrammewefocusseduponnationalinfrastructurenetworkswithrathersimplifiedtreatmentoftheinterfacebetweentheUK’sinfrastructurenetworksandtherestoftheworld.Exceptionsrelatedtoouranalysisoftheroleoftrans-nationalenergyinterconnectors(Baruahetal.,2014,Baruahetal.,2016),airports(BlaineyandPreston,2016)andexportofsolidwaste(Watsonetal.,2016).WithintheITRC’sMISTRALprogramme,which

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beganin2016,wearelookingmoreexplicitlyattheinterconnectivitybetweentheUK,itsgeographicalneighboursandtherestoftheworld,includingconnectivityforenergy,transport(passengerandfreight),digital(cableandsatellite)andsolidwastesystems.Theresultsfromthatanalysisarenotyetavailablebutwewillbegeneratingscenariosforinternationalconnectivityandtheroleofgatewaysinenablingthatconnectivity.

3:Howshouldinfrastructurebedesigned,plannedanddeliveredtocreatebetterplacestoliveandwork?Howshouldtheinteractionbetweeninfrastructureandhousingbeincorporatedintothis?

ITRChasadoptedaservice-basedviewofinfrastructure,focussingupontheservicesthatinfrastructuresystemsdeliver(Ottoetal.,2014).Reliable,affordableandenvironmentallysustainableinfrastructureservicesareoneaspectof“betterplacestoliveandwork”.

Demandforallsortsofinfrastructureservicecomesfromhouses,soitisimportanttotakeanintegratedviewofinfrastructureandhousing.TheITRC’sresearchhasthereforefocusseduponcharacterisingthenatureofdemand,forexampleforenergy(Baruahetal.,2016),digital(Oughtonetal.,2016,Oughtonetal.,2015,OughtonandFrias,2016),water(Simpsonetal.,2016),wastewater(Manningetal.,2016)andsolidwasteservices(Watsonetal.,2016)atahouseholdorcommunityscale.Thatanalysishasillustratedthesignificantrangeofpossibledemandsforinfrastructureservicesatahouseholdscaleandthepotentialforinnovationtoreducedemand.

Ourintra-zonaltrafficmodel(BlaineyandPreston,2016)providessomeinsightsintourbancongestion,butatahighlyaggregatelevel.ThenewtransportmodelbeingdevelopedintheMISTRALprogrammewillprovidemoredetailedinsightsintothisaspectofurbanliveability.ThemoregeographicallyrefinedresearchinMISTRALwillalsoexploretheroleofurbangreenspacesinurbandrainage

IntheMISTRALprogrammewewillbeusingindividualbuildingsasthelowestlevelofresolutioninourmodelling.WearedevelopingamethodologytocharacteriseallofBritain’sbuildingstockandhouseholdoccupants.Wehavedevelopedamicrosimulationmodelthatsimulatestheevolutionofhouseholdcompositionoverthecomingdecades.ThatsimulationhasbeenconductedforNewcastleandwearereadytoextendnationally.WeofferthisevidencebasetotheNIC.

OurresearchonbuildingcharacterisationcombinesGISdatawithevidencefromremotesensingtocharacterisebuildingsintermsoftheirageandtype(BarrandBarnsley,2004).ThisapproachhasbeenappliedinLondonandisbeingrolledoutnationally.Furtherresearchwilldevelopspatialoptimisationmethodologiessothatwecanallocatefutureinfrastructure(likeCHPplantsorphotovoltaicpanels)accordingtoasetofobjectivesandconstraints.AversionofthiswasdevelopedforallocatingnewhousinginLondon(Walshetal.,2011)accordingtoobjectives(e.g.prioritisingbrownfieldsites)andconstraints(e.g.avoidingfloodplains).ThismethodologymaybeofinteresttotheNICindevelopingspatialscenariosofdemandforinfrastructureservices.

AfurtherstrandwithintheMISTRALprogrammeisthedevelopmentofanagent-basedmodelofthehousingmarket,whichisbeingextendedtomakeitspatiallyexplicit.Thisisstillworkin

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progressandwedonotexpectrobustresultsonthetimescalerequirefortheNIA,butwehopeitwillprovideworthwhileevidenceforfutureroundsoftheNIA.

4.Whatisthemaximumpotentialfordemandmanagement,recognisingbehaviouralconstraintsandreboundeffects?

TheITRChasdevelopedmodulesforprojectingdemandfordifferentinfrastructureservices,includinghouseholdandindustrialenergydemand(Baruahetal.,2016),waterdemand(Simpsonetal.,2016,WaterUK,2016),transporttripgeneration(BlaineyandPreston,2016)andgenerationofsolidwaste(Watsonetal.,2016).Wearenowintheprocessofgeneratinganewgeographicallyresolvedmodelofdemandfordigitalconnectivity.Eachofthesemodelscanbeusedtoexplorethepotentialfordemandmanagementstrategies.

Thepotentialforimprovedenergyefficiencyisverylarge.Ithasbeenestimatedthattheglobalthermodynamicpotentialisareductionofapproximately85%(Cullenetal.,2011).Theeconomicandpracticalpotentialisclearlysmaller.Mostreliableestimates(Luconetal.,2014,NAS,2010)are20%-50%,whichistherangethatwemodelledintheITRCanalysisasachievableby2050.Thelowerendoftherangewouldprobablybeachievedbymarketforcesalone;theupperendrequiressignificantpolicyintervention.Thedifferenceisclearlyhugelyimportantforenergyinfrastructurepolicy.

Meta-analysisofenergyefficiencyevaluationstudiesshowsthatenergyefficiencyprogrammestendtodeliversignificantbenefitsandtobehighlycosteffective,buttoachievelessthansimpleengineeringestimates(WadeandEyre,2015).Thereasonsarediverse.Reboundeffectsarerelativelywellunderstood.Theycanbesignificantwherethereislargeunmetdemandforenergyservices,butinanadvancedeconomyliketheUK,directreboundeffectsaresmall,typically~10%.Under-performanceofmorecomplextechnicalsolutionsisalsoafactor,implyingthatskillsandtraininginsupplychainsandinstallationneedtobeanimportantpartsofenergyefficiencypolicy(Killip,2013).Behavioural,culturalandinstitutionalfactorsarealsoimportantinunderstandingthereasonforunder-investmentinenergyefficiencyandinpolicydesign.

Forroadandrailtransportwehavemodelledtheresponseofdemandtoeconomicandpopulationchange,aswellasthenegativefeedbackfromcongestion(BlaineyandPreston,2016).Infact,inoursimulationsself-limitingcongestionisonlyavoidedbydecouplingdemandfromtheeconomicandpopulationdrivers,whichmightbeachievedbydemandmanagement.However,thereisariskthatsuchdemandmanagementwillleadtosub-optimaloutcomesfortheeconomyandtheenvironmentwehavenotyetmodelledtheseeffects.Itshouldalsobenotedthatinmanycircumstancescapacityinvestmentandpricingarejointdecisions,andtheoptimalbalancebetweenthesewillvarybetweencontexts.Thepotentialfordemandmanagementbylimitingsupplyisnoteworthyformodeswhereabsolutelimitsoncapacityapply(inotherwordswhereadditionaluserscannotattempttouseinfrastructurewhichiseffectivelyfull),suchasairports.

5:Howshouldthemaintenanceandrepairofexistingassetsbemosteffectivelybalancedwiththeconstructionofnewassets?

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InouranalysisinITRCusingNISMODwehaveincorporatedoperationaswellascapitalcostsofinfrastructure.However,wehavenotyetquantifiedtheroleofmaintenance.Someworthwhileexamplesofthisdoexist,forexampleintheEnvironmentAgency’sLongTermInvestmentScenarios(LTIS)whichwearenowincorporatingwithinNISMOD(Halletal.,2017b).LTISmodelsthedeteriorationofflooddefencesandtriggersinvestmentdecisionswhendecisionswhenassetshavedeterioratedbadly(EnvironmentAgency,2014).

6:Whatopportunitiesaretheretoimprovetheroleofcompetitionorcollaborationindifferentareasofthesupplyofinfrastructureservices?

TheITRC’sanalysisofgovernancehasexploredtheroleofcompetitionininfrastructureprovision.Intherightcircumstances,competitionhasbeenshowntoyieldmoreefficientproduction,controlcostsand/ormotivateinnovation.Howevertherearemanyinstanceswithintheinfrastructuresectorswherecompetitionmaynotleadtothemostefficient/costeffective/highperformancesolutions(forexamplewherecapitalintensiveassetsandtechnologiesexhibitingstrongnetworkeffectsleadtocharacteristicsofanaturalmonopoly).Examplesofthelimitationsofcommercialcompetitioninpartsofinfrastructureprovisionincludetherolloutofsmartmetersinelectricityandtheapplicationofafranchisingmodeltopassengerrailservices(e.g.mismatchbetweenvehicleassetlivesandfranchiselengthsledtoadditionalorganisationsandmisalignedincentivesinvehicleprovision).Ifcompetitionisusefulinaninfrastructuresetting,careshouldbetakentoselectappropriatemechanismsforcompetitionforthesector,technologyandprocessesbeingdelivered.Mechanismstoco-ordinateandmotivatetheworkoforganisationswithoutusingcompetitioncanbemoreefficientinsomecircumstances.Giventheimportanceandlong-lifeofinfrastructuresystems,itisoftennotanefficientuseofresourcestohavemorethanoneorganisationdevelopingknowledgeorexpertisethatiseitherduplicatedelsewhereorisolatedfromothercomplimentaryknowledgebases(asmightbethecaseifknowledgeisbeingbuiltforcommercialexploitationinacompetitivesetting).Thereareopportunitiesforinvestmentinthedevelopmentandmaintenanceofcommonandcross-sectorknowledgebases/setsofexpertisethatcanbeappliedacrosssectors,supportinglearningbetweensectorsandofferingthebasisfortacklinginter-sectorinterdependencies.Thebuildingupofknowledge/expertisecanbelocatedinseveralplaces,forexampleinuniversities,businessesoperatingacrosssectors(suchasconstructionfirmsormanagement/engineeringconsultancyfirms)andpolicyandregulationarenas(suchasthroughtheNationalInfrastructureCommissionandUKRN)(Hitevaetal.,2016).

7.Whatchangesinfundingpolicycouldimprovetheefficiencywithwhichinfrastructureservicesaredelivered?

Itisgenerallyacknowledgedthattheintroductionofaroaduserchargingsystemwherethecostofdrivingonaroadvariesbytime,place,andvehicletypewouldimprovetheoperationalefficiencyoftheroadnetwork(Walker,2011,Eddington,2006).Iftheincomefromsuchasystemwasthenallocatedtooffsetthevariousexternalitiesonwhichchargeswerebased(such

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ascongestion,airpollution,andinfrastructuredamage)itwouldalsoimprovethefinancialefficiencyofthenetwork,providingthattheimplementationcostsoftheschemewerenotexcessive.Formsofuser-basedcongestionchargingalreadyexistforair,railandsea,meaningthatthelackofsuchchargesontheroadsystemleadstoseriousmarketdistortions.

8.Aretherecircumstanceswhereprojectsthatcanbefundedwillnotbefinanced?Whatgovernmentinterventionsmightimprovefinancingwithoutdistortingwell-functioningmarkets?

9:Howcanwemosteffectivelyensurethatourinfrastructuresystemisresilienttotherisksarisingfromincreasinginterdependenceacrosssectors?

TheITRChasworkedextensivelyonanalyzingrisksandresilienceofnationalinfrastructuresystems.Ourapproachincorporates:

1. spatialrepresentationofclimatehazards,forexampleflooding(Pantetal.,2017)andcoolingwatershortagesforpowerplants(Byersetal.,2016,Byersetal.,2015),

2. analysisofinfrastructurenetworkperformanceduringextremeevents,3. networkdisruption(Pantetal.,2016a),4. interdependencieswithotherinfrastructurenetworks(Thackeretal.,2017c)and5. theindirecteconomicconsequencesofinfrastructurefailure(Pantetal.,2016b).

Themethodologyhasbeenusedtoidentifygeographical‘hotspots’ofinfrastructurevulnerability,whereahotspotisdefinedasaconcentrationofinfrastructureassetswithalargenumberofusersdirectlyorindirectlydependentonthoseassets(Thackeretal.,2017a).Analyzingpotentialfailurescenariosandthedirectandindirecteconomicconsequencesprovidesthestartingpointformakingthebusinesscasetoinvestinresilience.Italsohelpstotargetinvestmentswheretheywillmostefficientlyreducetheconsequencesofinfrastructurenetworkfailure(Thackeretal.,2017b).OuranalysisofgovernanceindicatesthateconomicregulatorsmayneedtomovebeyondrecentinitiativesliketheU.K.RegulatorsNetworkandtowardsmorecomprehensiveandproactivecollaborativearrangements.Thesecouldnotonlybringtogethereconomicregulatorsandrelevantnationalgovernmentdepartments,butcouldalsoincludeotheractors,suchasenvironmentalregulators(e.g.theEnvironmentAgency),anddifferentlevelsofgovernmentincludingLocalAuthorities.Workingacrosslevelsofgovernanceinthiswaywillrequirerebalancingbetweenthebetterco-ordinationbycentralgovernmentandmorecontextspecificprocesses,resourcesandactionsatalocallevel.Multi-agencyorganisationssuchasResilienceForums(forexampletheLincolnshire’sCriticalInfrastructureandEssentialServicesGroup)atlocalandregionallevel,facilitatethedevelopmentofcloserrelationshipsandcooperationbetweeninfrastructureproviders(suchasAnglianWater,CEElectricandBritishTelecom)andLocalAuthoritybodies(suchaslocaldrainageboards)throughregularmeetingsontheresilienceofcriticalinfrastructurealongthecoast.Thesemeetingsarethoughttosignificantlyimprovetheknowledgeofinfrastructureassetsheldbynationalgovernmentagencies.Theycouldalsohelptobuildtrustandfacilitatetheflowofinformationbetweenlocalindustry,infrastructureowners

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andlocalauthorities,throughactivitiessuchasthedevelopmentofInformationSharingProtocols(HitevaandWatson,2016).

10:Whatchangescouldbemadetotheplanningsystemandinfrastructuregovernancearrangementstoensureinfrastructureisdeliveredasefficientlyaspossibleandontime?

TheITRChasdevelopedanapproachtoinfrastructureplanningthatexaminestheperformanceofexistinginfrastructurenetworks,thedriversoffutureneedforinfrastructureservicesandthealternativeinvestmentsandpoliciesthatmightbeimplementedtoaddressthoseneeds.ThatiscloselyalignedwiththeapproachtotheNIAthathasbeenproposedbytheNIC.Nonetheless,itrepresentsasignificantdeparturefromconventionalinfrastructureplanningpractice:

1. Ourfocusisupontheassessmentoftheperformanceofnationalinfrastructuresystemsasawhole,nottheappraisalofindividualprojects.

2. Weconsiderawiderangeofpossiblescenariosofchangingdriversofdemandforinfrastructureservices.Astraightforwardbutsignificantcontributionhasbeentheadoptionofasetofconsistentscenariosthatareusedacrossinfrastructuresectors.

3. Wehavetestedsetsofalternativestrategiesforinfrastructureprovision,includinginvestmentsandpolicyinstruments.

Thisprocessisnotintendedtoprovideadeterministicmasterplanforinfrastructuredelivery,butit provides a sense of direction,whilst being flexible enough to adapt to uncertainties. In ouranalysisofadaptingcitiestoclimatechange,wehavedemonstratedhowan‘adaptivepathways’approachcanproviderobustnesstoarangeoffutureuncertainties(Kingsboroughetal.,2017).

InouranalysisfortheNationalNeedsAssessmentstudy(ICE,2016),weemphasisedtheimportanceofaccompanyinginvestmentsinnewcapacitywithmorevigorousactiontomanagedemand.

Approachesthatemphasiseefficiency,innovationandusingexistingassetsmoreeffectivelyarelikelytohavelowercosts.

Ouranalysisofinfrastructuregovernancehasexposedhowarangeofpotentialeconomic,socialandenvironmentalgainscouldbemadebystrategicandpositiveinfrastructurecoordinationbetweeninfrastructuresectors.Potentialbenefitsincludemorecoordination,greaterinformationaboutinterdependencies;andfosteringgreatertrustbetweendifferentstakeholders(publicandprivateactors,andnational,regionalandlocalauthorities).Torealisethesebenefits,furtherco-ordinationmayberequiredbetweentheindividualsectorsatmultiplelevels(international,nationalandlocal);theremovalofregulatoryandinvestmentbarrierstocross-sectoralinfrastructureinvestment.Forexample,thiscouldincludefurtherregulatoryactionstoensurethatinnovationinsmarterelectricitynetworksandlearningissustainedbeyondthelifeofcurrentregulatoryincentivesprovidedbyOfgem(whichhaveincludedtheLowCarbonNetworkFund).Anotherexampleistheweakeningofincentivesforwatercompaniestoinvestinon-siterenewableenergyprojectsbecausethecostsofsuchprojects

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cannotberecoveredfromwaterconsumers,andtheydonotcounttowardssomeofthosecompanies’emissionsreductionobligations(WatsonandRai,2013).

Theevidencesuggeststhatincreasingtheamountofengagementandconsultation,andtakingaccountoftheviewsofstakeholderswithininfrastructureplans,canleadtomorelegitimateoutcomes.Examplesincluderesearchonlowcarboninfrastructure(Hitevaetal.,2017)andresearchonenergysystemchange(Parkhilletal.,2013).

11:Howshouldinfrastructuremosteffectivelycontributetoprotectingandenhancingthenaturalenvironment?

TheITRC’sanalysishasanalysedenvironmentalimpactsfromtwoperspectives:

1. Takingenvironmentalmetricsasanoutputvariable(thethirdpillarofthetrilemma),bywhichalternativeinfrastructurestrategiescanbecompared,alongsidemetricsofsecurityofsupplyandcost.

2. Takingtheenvironmentasaconstraintonthesetofpossibleoptions.WeunderstandthatthisistheapproachthattheNICwilltakewiththeUK’slegalcarbontargets.Wehavetakenthisapproachwithrespecttowaterabstractionlicencing,thoughthereissomeambiguityinhowlicencesmaychangeinfuture(WaterUK,2016).

WewelcometheNIC’sdevelopmentofindicatorsofinfrastructureperformance,whichwebelieveshouldbeconstructedaroundthedimensionsofthe‘trilemma’:(1)securityofsupply,reliability,accessibilityandqualityofservice(2)affordabilityandeconomicefficiencyand(3)environmentalimpactandsustainabilityofresourceuse.Wesuggestinparticularthatenvironmentalprotection,includingmeetingstatutoryclimatechangetargets(seeQ11)shouldbecentraltoanyfuturenationalinfrastructureassessmentsandplans.

Hitevaetal.(2017)arguethatenvironmentprotectionforlowcarboninfrastructureshouldadoptaholisticapproach,takingintoconsiderationtrade-offs,networkeffectsandintegratedthinkingininfrastructure.Sinceinfrastructureunderpinsthechoicesandbehavioursofdecision-makersandusers,theyalsoarguethatamoreprogressiveapproachcouldincludeafocusonoutcomes(e.g.lowcarbonliving)ratherthanbeingconfinedtothemeanstodeliversuchoutcomes.

12.Whatimprovementscouldbemadetocurrentcost-benefitanalysistechniquesthatarecredible,tractableandtransparent?

CurrentCBAtechniquescontainplentyofflexibilitytoincludemultipleversionsofvaluation(includingwideeconomic,socialandenvironmentalbenefits)andtoanalyseprogrammesaswellasprojectsandnetworkeffects.Inpractice,relativelyfewCBAstudiesmakeuseofthisflexibility.Inpartthismaybebecauseestimatesofwideeconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsarequiteuncertain,andbecauseofthecomplexityofappraisingadaptivesequencesofinvestmentsandpolicies(YoungandHall,2015,Borgomeoetal.,2016).OuraimintheMISTRAL

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programmeistoprovideaplatformanddatasetsthatwillmakesystem-scaleappraisalprocessmorestraightforward,whilstrecognisinginevitableuncertainties.

Transport

13.Howwilltravelpatternschangebetweennowand2050?Whatwillbetheimpactoftheadoptionofnewtechnologies?

Itisclearlyimpossibletopredictwithanycertaintyhowtravelpatternswillchangebetweennowand2050,asthisdependsonhowarangeofotherfactorschangeandplayoutoverthistimeperiod,rangingfromgrowthinpopulation,throughdevelopmentsintechnology,totheimpactsofpoliticaleventssuchas‘Brexit’.However,whiledefinitepredictionsmaybeimpossible,flexiblemodellingsystemscanbeusedtoexaminehowtravelpatternsmightchangeinfutureinresponsetoarangeofdifferentfuturestrategiesandscenarios.ThisisexemplifiedbytheongoingresearchworkbeingcarriedoutbytheITRCusingitsNISMODsystem,whichhassofarexaminedfuturetravelpatternsunder3externalscenarios(coveringdemographiceconomicchangeandfuelprices)and7transportstrategies(coveringtechnologicaldevelopment,infrastructureinvestment,andpolicy-relateddecisions)(Blaineyetal.,2013,Hickfordetal.,2015,BlaineyandPreston,2016).Furtherworkiscurrentlyongoingtodevelopatypologyoftransportstrategycomponents,topermitmoreflexibleinvestigationoftransportfuturesusingtheupdatedNISMODsystem.

14.Whatarethehighestvaluetransportinvestmentstoallowpeopleandfreighttogetinto,outofandaroundmajorurbanareas?

Withrespecttourbanandinter-urbantransporttherearenomagicformulae.Eachinfrastructureinvestmentiscontextspecific(asWebTAGstresses),andeachurbanareawillhavespecifictransportneeds.Furthermore,thequalityandeffectivenessofexistingtransportsystemsvariessignificantlyfromplacetoplace,meaningthatabespokeapproachwillbeneededineachcase.Itshouldalsobenotedthatafocusonenablingaccessibilitymightinsomecircumstancesdeliveragreaterincreaseinproductivityatlowercostthanamore‘traditional’focusonenablingmobilitythroughtheconstructionofadditionaltransportinfrastructure.InvestmentsinICTinfrastructureenablingvirtualmobilitytosubstituteforphysicalmobilitymayalsoprovetobeofhighvalue,particularlyifcombinedwitheconomicandfiscalpolicieswhichencourageflexible/homeworking.Agglomerationdiseconomiesshouldalsobeconsidered,includingexcessivespecialisation(andamono-culturaleconomy),adverseknowledgespill-overeffects,congestion(LondonasabarrierforlinkswithintheUKandbetweentheUKandEurope)andpollution.

15.Whatarethehighestvaluetransportinvestmentsthatcanbeusedtoconnectpeopleandplaces,aswellastransportgoods,outsideofasingleurbanarea?

SeeresponsetoQ14

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16.Whatopportunitiesdoes‘mobilityasaservice’createforroadusercharging?Howwouldthisaffectroadusage?

Theanswertothisquestiondependsonwhatexactlyismeanthereby‘mobilityasaservice’(MaaS).AstherecentTransportSystemCatapult(TransportSystemsCatapult,2016)reportmakesclearMaaSmightbeeitherbasedaroundprivatetransport(andtantamounttocarleasingwithaddedvalueservices)ormulti-modal(andbasedaroundnationalandlocalpublictransportnetworks).

Therearealsoimportantdistinctionsdependingonthebalancebetweenpublicandprivatesectorinvolvement.RoadchargingwouldhavemostrelevanceforaMaaSsystembasedaroundcarsharing,whereasapublictransportfocusedMaaSmightdelivergreaterefficiencyandenvironmentalbenefits.However,itisdifficulttoseehowevenaMaaSsystembasedoncar-sharingwouldcreatedirectopportunitiesforroaduserchargingunlessthechargingsystemthatwasappliedmeantthattravelusingMaaSvehicleswascheaperfortheusersthantravelbyprivatecarandhenceMaaSwasusedtoovercomeequityissues.Fortravelincongestedareas(wherethegreatestbenefitsfromroaduserchargingmightbeexpected)thiswouldonlybethecaseiftheroaduserchargingsystemappliedtoprivatecarsaswellastoMaaSvehicles,orifMaaSvehicleswerechargedafeewhichwasfarbelowthefulleconomiccosttheyimposedonsociety.Thisisbecauseunderthecurrentsystemofroadtaxationtheonlychargeperceivedatpointofuseisthecostoffuel,meaningthatdriversdonotfaceanypenaltyfordrivinginhighlycongestedareascomparedtodrivingonuncongestedroads,whereaswithanefficientroaduserchargingsystemvehicleswouldpaysignificantlymorefordrivingincongestedareasthaninuncongestedareas.ThiswouldmeanthatiftheroaduserchargingsystemappliedonlytoMaaSvehiclesitwouldbesignificantlycheapertodriveintoacongestedareausingaconventionalvehiclethantouseMaaS.ThismeansthatMaaSisonlylikelytohaveasignificantimpactonreducingtrafficcongestioniftimeandplace-variantroaduserchargingisintroducedforallvehiclesusingtheroadnetwork.However,itisnotobvioushowtheexistenceofMaaSwouldhelpovercomethepoliticalbarrierswhichhavepreviouslypreventedtheintroductionofcomprehensiveroadcharging.Evenifsuchaschemewasintroduced,thenthereisstillariskthataroad-basedMaaSsystemcouldinsomecircumstancesmakecongestionworsebydivertingpassengersawayfrommorespace-efficientpublictransportsystems.Thereisthereforeaneedforamulti-modalMaaSthatencouragesuseofthemostefficientmodesatdifferenttimesoftheday.

Digitalcommunications

17.Whatarethehighestvalueinfrastructureinvestmentstosecuredigitalconnectivityacrossthecountry?Whenwoulddecisionsneedtobemade?

Withconstrainedannualcapitalinvestment,thereisacapacity-coveragetrade-offinthedeliveryofdigitalinfrastructure.

Gruberetal.(2014)makeanassessmentoftheeconomicbenefitsofbroadbandinvestmentacrosstheEUandfindthattheoverallfuturebenefitsoutweightheinvestmentcosts,butthattheprivatesectorisreluctanttoinvestbecauseinvestorsonlypartiallyappropriatethebenefits.

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Theysuggestthepublicsectorhasarolethereforeinsubsidisingthebuild-outofhighspeedbroadbandinfrastructure.Webelievethisroleshouldbefocusedatthebottomendofthemarketwherethecostsofdeliveryareunviablethroughnormalmarketmethods.

Near-ubiquitouscoverageisimportantbecausepastevidenceoftelecomstechnologieshasshownthatthelargestnetworkexternalitiesonlyaccrueonceacriticalmassofinfrastructureispresent.

Thiscriticalmasshasbeenfoundtobenearuniversalservice(RollerandWaverman,2001).Hence,thetrueeconomicandsocialbenefitsofonlinecontent,applicationsandservicesonlytakeplacewhenpracticallyallofthepopulationcanmakeuseofthem.

Webelievelargeheadlinespeedsarenotnecessarilyrequiredcurrently(e.g.1Gbps),basedonexistingbandwidthdemandforecasting(KennyandBroughton,2013,KennyandKenny,2011).However,deploymentofhigh-capacityinfrastructure(e.g.Fibre/FTTP)doesprovideafutureproofsolution,andifwedoenduprequiringthissolutionindecadestocome,itwouldbecheaperinthelong-runtoinstallnow.

Thedecisionthereforeneedstobemadeastowhetherwe(i)usea‘bigbang’investmentapproachtodigitalinfrastructureinvestment(withheavystatesupport),or(ii)useanincrementalrolloutofdigitalinfrastructure,thatsweatsassets,usesminimalpublicfunding,butmaycostmoreoverthelongrunasitwillbealessefficientwaytouseavailablecapitalallocations.

18.Istheexistingdigitalcommunicationsregimegoingtodeliverwhatisneeded,whenitisneeded,intheareasthatrequireit,ifdigitalconnectivityisbecomingautility?Ifnot,howcanwefacilitatethis?

Thequestionof‘need’iscentral.Economictheoryimpliesthatifthereisa‘need’forspecificgoodsorservices,consumerswillbepreparedtopayforthem.However,broadbandservicesarewidelyregardedashavinga‘brokenvaluechain’.

Briglauer(2014)findsthattheDigitalAgendaforEuropetargetscanbebestachievedbyfocusingonsupply-sideratherthandemand-sidepolicies.Thisincludesderegulation,andencouragingfavourablecompetitivemarketconditions.

However,Nardottoetal.(2015)findsnoevidencethatunbundlingincreasedbroadbandadoption,exceptforinearlyyearsbeforethemarketreachedmaturity.Thedatainsteadfoundthatinter-platformcompetitionfromcablealwaysleadstomarketexpansion.

ThisiscomparablewiththeworkofOughtonetal.(2015)whoalsofoundthatinter-platformcompetitionhadthelargesteffectonnetworkinvestmentintheUK.Hence,encouraginggreaterinter-platformcompetitionviaexpansionoftheVirginMediacablenetwork(e.g.viaProjecteLightning)willdeliverbetterqualitydigitalinfrastructure.

Withregardstomobile,undercurrentbaselinescenarioconditions,OughtonandFrias(2016)findthatitwilltakesignificanttimeandresourcestorolloutultrafastmobilebroadbandtorural

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areasifonewishestodeliversuperfastbroadbandspeeds(50Mbps).Whilethismaybeaviableoptionusingsmallcellsinurbanandsuburbanareas(ifplanningrulescanberelaxedfordeployment),wideareacoverageinruralareaswillbechallengingtodeliverdataratesabove10Mbit/s.Inareaswherethereissparecapacityininfrastructureassets,infrastructuresharingisaviableoptionworthexploring(Ibid.).

Fundetal.(2016)undertookaneconomicanalysisofspectrumandinfrastructuresharinginmillimetrewavecellularnetworks,concludingthat‘open’deploymentsofneutralsmallcellsservingsubscribersofanyserviceproviderencouragemarketentrybymakingiteasierfornetworkstogetclosertocriticalmass.Infrastructuresharingisonewayinwhichthecostsofdeployingnetworkupgradescanbereduced.

However,analysisbyOvandoetal.(2015)ofLTErolloutinruralareasshowsthatpassiveinfrastructuresharingdoesnotnecessarilyconstituteasingle-costsolutionformeetingrequiredcoverageobligationsinlowpopulationdensityareas,butsharingasinglenetworkdoesbegintomakedeploymentmorefeasibleforoperators.Apackageofmeasuresshouldbeexploredincludingmarket-based,regulatoryandpolicystrategiestoincreasecoverageandcapacity.

Energy

19.Whatisthehighestvaluesolutionfordecarbonisingheat,forbothcommercialanddomesticconsumers?Whenwoulddecisionsneedtobemade?

FortheITRC’sanalysisweassumeddecarbonisationofheatforoneofourkeystrategies(Baruahetal.,2016).Weexclusivelylookedatelectrificationofheatdemand.OnthesupplysidewelookedattheoptionsforsupplyingtheincreasedelectricaldemandthroughNuclear/renewables/CCS.Supplyingthisdemandwascheapestthroughbuildingbignuclearplantsandreinforcinganumberoftransmissionlines(modellingoutput).Withregardstowhendecisionsneedtobemade,thiswasexogenoustotheITRCmodelling.

OurbroadconclusionfromtheITRCanalysisandsubsequentworkisthatdecarbonisationofheatusingelectrificationastheonlymechanismisveryunlikelytobeacosteffectiveoracceptablestrategy(EyreandBaruah,2015).Notallbuildingsaresuitableforelectricheatingsystems.Andevenusingefficientheatpumps,suchastrategywouldrequireatleastanadditional40GWofpowergeneration,allofwhichwouldoperateataloadfactoroflessthan25%,muchofitverymuchlowerasitwouldonlybeusedonthecoldestdays.Thisanalysisconcludesthatstrategiesusingmorediversefuelmixeswillbemoreresilientandlowercost.Mediumtermoptionsthatarerobustagainstuncertaintyincludegreateruseofbiogas(althoughtheresourceislimitedtoafractionofheatdemand)andmoreconcertedeffortstoimprovebuildingefficiencyandreducedemand(seeourresponsetoquestion4above).

However,thereiscurrentlynoconsensusontheoptimumstrategyforheatdecarbonisation.WeendorsethebroadconclusionsoftherecentreportoftheCommitteeonClimateChange(CommitteeonClimateChange,2016)towhichweprovidedexpertadvice.Weinterpretthekeyconclusionsasbeing:

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1. Thereisaneedtointegrateheatdecarbonisationandenergyefficiencypolicieswithincreasedurgencyforenergyefficiencyintheshortterm.

2. Therearesomenoregretsoptionsfordecarbonisingheat,includingthedeploymentofgroundsourceheatpumpsoffthegasgridandthedevelopmentofheatnetworksinurbancentres.

3. Thatchoicesbetweenhydrogenandelectricityfordecarbonisationofexistingongasgridhomesneedtobemadeintheearly2020s,withevidencecollectedtosupportthedecisionduringthisParliament,includingthroughtrials.

Itseemslikelythathydrogenwillformpartoftheoptimumsolution,butwithuncertaintyabouttherelativerolesofnaturalgas(withCCS)andelectrolysisinthatprocess.

WithintheMISTRALprogrammeweareextendingNISMODtoexplicitlyrepresentlocalelectrificationandthepotentialroleofheatandhydrogennetworks.ThiswillisbeingachievedthroughthedevelopmentofalocalEnergyHubmodel,whichisembeddedinournationalCGEN+electricityandgasmodel.

20.Whatdoesthemosteffectivezerocarbonpowersectorlooklikein2050?Howwouldthisbeachieved?

TheITRCanalysisdidnotexaminethisquestionspecifically,thoughtheCommitteeonClimateChangehasdoneextensiveanalysisofthisquestion(CommitteeonClimateChange,2015).Thequestionishowevercastrathernarrowlyinthatitexclusivelytalksaboutthe‘powersystem’…..ifweassumethatheatisnotelectrified,wethenhaveasystemthathassimilardemands(possiblylower

throughdemandsidemanagement/efficiency)thantoday.Thiswouldbeanidealsituationwhenattemptingtogettoanear‘zerocarbonpowersystem’,butwouldnotbesufficienttoachieveanearzero/lowcarbon‘Energy’system.

21.Whataretheimplicationsoflowcarbonvehiclesforenergyproduction,transmission,distribution,storageandnewinfrastructurerequirements?

Fromasupplyperspectivethis‘might’leadtoalargeincreaseinelectricaldemandonthesystem.Insomeofourscenarioselectricvehicleswereprojectedtorepresent10-12%ofelectricitydemandby2050(Halletal.,2017b,Baruahetal.,2014).Thisincreaseindemandwasincludedinouranalysisofproductionandtransmissioninfrastructurerequirements,butnotdistribution.

Theimplicationsofchargingelectricvehiclesdependonwhentheyarecharged.IntheITRCprojectwedidnotexplicitlyexplorethepossibilityofoptimisingchargingtimesduringtheday/night.ThiswillbeaddressedintheMISTRALproject,alongsideexplicitconsiderationofintermittencyinrenewablesupplies(wind,solar,tidal)andhencetheprobabilityofinsufficientsupply.

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Waterandwastewater(drainageandsewerage)

22.Whataremosteffectiveinterventionstoensurethedifferencebetweensupplyanddemandforwaterisaddressed,particularlyinthosepartsofthecountrywherethedifferencewillbecomemostacute?

Theinterventionsthatcanbeusedtoimprovesecurityofwatersupplyareallwell-known:

• technologiesandbehaviouraloptionsfordemandreduction;

• reductionofleakage,thecostofwhichwillbeassistedbytechnologicalinnovation;

• abstractionreformtoallocatewatermoreefficientlyandsafeguardtheaquaticenvironment

• newandenhancedsuppliesfromsurfaceandgroundwater,includinggroundwaterrecharge,surfacestorageandinter-basintransfers;wastewaterreuse;desalination

InouranalysisforITRC(Simpsonetal.,2016)andinotherresearchstudies(Borgomeoetal.,2016),wehaveexploredthefullrangeofoptions,ashaveWaterUK(WaterUK,2016).Themorechallengingissueishowto:

1. sequenceinterventionssothattheycost-effectivelyandadaptablyprovidesecurityofsupply;and

2. ensurethattheinteractionbetweenagrowingnumberofactorsinwatersupplyandusedoesnotleadtosystemicrisksattimesofstressacrossthewholesystem.

WeareproposingthereformofWaterResourceManagementPlanningsothatitmoreexplicitlydealswiththetrade-offbetweenaffordabilityandsecurityofsupply(Halletal.,2017a).Wearealsobeginningtodevelopnationalsyntheticdroughteventsetsthatcanbeusedtostresstestthenation’swaterresourcesystems,includinginterdependenciesandinteractions.

Inrelatedresearchwehaveanalysedthedemandforcoolingwaterbythepowersectorinordertoanalysetherisksofcoolingwatershortage(Byersetal.,2014,Byersetal.,2016,Byersetal.,2015).OngoingresearchfundedbyEDFisexploringthepossibilitiesforoptimisingtheinterplaybetweenintermittentenergysuppliesandenergyuseinthewatersector,includingpossibleenergystorageandload-shedding.

Overthecomingyearwewillincludeagriculturalabstractions(Reyetal.,2016)alongsidepublicwatersupplyandindustrial/energyabstractors,tounderstandbettertheinterplaybetweendifferentabstractorsduringtimesofdrought.

23.Whatarethemosteffectiveinterventionstoensurethatdrainageandseweragecapacityissufficienttomeetfuturedemand?

Demandforsewagetransferanddisposalisasimplefunctionofpopulationandpercapitawateruse.However,mostsewersarealsousedforstormwaterdrainagesoaresensitivetointense

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rainstorms.Becauseofthecomplexityofrainfallpatternsandrunoffinurbanareas,analysingsewercapacityandtheconditionsunderwhichthatcapacitywillbeexceededrequireshighresolutionmodelling.IntheMISTRALprogrammewearecombiningsyntheticrainfallgenerationwithhighresolutionmodellingofsewerandsurfaceflows(Glenisetal.,2013).WehavedevelopedbroadscalemethodsbasedontheDrainLondondatasetstosimulatethechangingriskofsurfacewaterfloodingforallofLondon(Jenkinsetal.,2017).ThisanalysisalsoexploredthepotentialforreducingfloodriskthroughretrofittingofSustainableDrainageSystems(SuDS).Inourassessmentofwastewatersystems(Manningetal.,2016)weestimatedthecostsofdifferentratesofsewerreplacement.

24.Howcanwemosteffectivelymanageourwatersupply,wastewaterandfloodriskmanagementsystemsusingawholecatchmentapproach?

Inaprevioussubmission(ITRC,2016)wehavearguedforamoreintegratedapproachtothenaturalenvironment.Manyoftheservicesthatinfrastructurenetworksdeliverrelyuponthenaturalenvironment:riversandgroundwaterforwatersupplies;uplandsandfloodplainsfortheregulationofflooding;waterbodiesfortheassimilationoftreatedsewageeffluent;thelandfortheprovisionofbiofuelsandspreadingofsewagesludgeetc.Thenaturalenvironmentcutsacrossinfrastructuresectors,notablywaterandfloodriskmanagement,butalsoenergyandsolidwaste.‘Blue-greeninfrastructure’canpotentiallysubstitutefor‘greyinfrastructure’inseveralrespects:recharginggroundwateravoidstheneedforstoragereservoirsordesalination;naturalfloodmanagementcanreducesomeoftheriskofflooding;sustainabledrainagesystems(SuDS)canreducetheneedforpipeddrainageinfrastructure;restoringuplandscanreducediscolourationofwatersuppliesandavoidingdiffusepollutionfromagriculturallandcanimprovethequalityofrivers,bothofwhichavoidcostlywatertreatmentcostsforpublicwatersupplies.

Floodriskmanagement

25.WhatleveloffloodresilienceshouldtheUKaimtoachieve,balancingcosts,developmentpressureandthelong-termrisksposedbyclimatechange?

Theconceptandterminologyof“resilience”ishelpfulinthatitemphasisestheimportanceofasystem’scapacitytocopewithandrecoverfromextremeeventslikefloods.However,theterm“leveloffloodresilience”isnotgenerallyunderstood.Theconceptsandquantificationofriskismuchmoreprevalentindecisionmakingregardingflooding.Ifproperlyconducted,riskanalysisevaluatesnotonlyasystemscapacitytoresistflooding,butalsotheeffectivenessofcopingstrategiesandthefullcostsofrecover(seeforexample(BevenandHall,2014,Hall,2011,Crawford-Brownetal.,2013).Theamountinvested(inthebroadestsense)infloodriskreductionshouldbedeterminedbythecost-effectivenessofriskreduction(Halletal.,2012a),takingintoaccountprojectedfuturechangesandassociateduncertainties.Agivendesignstandard(e.g.1:200yearsforurbanareas)providesaveryroughguidelinebutitwouldbeunwisetorigidlyadoptanysuchtargetbecause(i)thecostsandbenefitsoffloodriskreductioncanvarysignificantly,soaprescribeddesignstandardwillnotresultinefficientallocationofresourcesand(ii)focussinguponthestandardofprotectionneglectsalternativecost-effective

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stepsthatmightbetakentoreducefloodrisk,forexamplethoughlanduseplanning,propertylevelprotectionorfloodforecastingandwarning(Halletal.,2003).

26.Whatarethemeritsandlimitationsofnaturalfloodmanagementschemesandinnovativetechnologiesandpracticesinreducingfloodrisk?

Themeritsandlimitationsarereviewedinthefollowing,soontobepublishedpaper:Dadsonetal.(2017)

Solidwaste

27.Arefinancialandregulatoryincentivescorrectlyalignedtoprovidesufficientlong-termtreatmentcapacity,tofinanceinnovation,tomeetlandfillandrecyclingobjectivesandtoassignresponsibilityforwaste?

Longtermtreatmentcapacity:ItisnotclearwhetherornottheUKhassufficientlongtermtreatmentcapacity.Eunomiapredictthatthereissufficientcapacity(Goulding,2016b),thoughthisviewisnotuniversallyheldintheindustry.In2016,3milliontonnesofRDFwereexportedtoincineratorsinNorthernEuropean(primarily,Netherlands,Germany,SwedenandDenmark)wherethereisovercapacity(Goulding,2017).Itislikelythatthisovercapacitywillreduceovertimeasoldplantcomesoffline.Itisnotclearwhenthiswillhappenorifnewcapacitywillbebuiltorifthepost-BrexitUKwillhaveaccesstothismarkethenceleading,potentially,toamajorshortfallinthermaltreatmentcapacity.Howeverthismaybeoffsetbycontinuingreductionsinwastearisings(WatsonandPowrie,2014).

Regulatoryincentives:RemovalofROCsforADunder5MWin2013maywellhaveactedasabrakeonfurtherinvestmentinsmallADandtheplannedcaponFiTsforAD>500kWmaymakelargeADlessattractive(Moore,2017).Holder(2015)wastoldthatthegovernmentincentives-RHI,ROCS(forgasifier)andFiTs(forAD)-arethethirdmostimportantrevenuestream(foraplanttakingblackbagwasteandtreatingbysortingtoremoverecyclates,digestingtheorganicsusingADandgasifyingtheremainder),behindgatefeesandpowersales,butaheadofrecyclatesales.ThispositionmaybechangediftheplannedreductioninFiTsforlargeADisintroduced.

Financinginnovation:TherehasbeenagreatdealofinvestmentingasificationdespitethecontraryrecommendationsintheDefraNewTechnologiesDemonstratorProjects(NTDP)(Powrie,2011,Pughetal.,2011).Despitethis,therehavebeenmultiplefailuresofcompaniesanddifficultieswiththetechnology(e.g.(Goulding,2016c,Goulding,2016a,Date,2016).Eunomia(2016)suggestthatdespitethesedifficulties,thetakeupofgasificationislikelytoincrease.

Landfillobjectives:TheobjectivesforlandfillcomeprimarilyfromtheLandfillDirective,andaretoreducetheamountofbiodegradablewastegoingtolandfillinordertoreducemethaneemissions.ThemainmechanismforachievingthisintheUKhasbeenthelandfilltaxandthelandfilltaxescalator.TheobjectivehasbeenachievedwithamountsofwastebeinglandfilledhavingfallenfasterthanrequiredbytheDirective(e.g.(Date,2016)).Theunintendedconsequenceofthishasbeentoreducetherevenueobtainedfromlandfill(duetoreductionin

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bothamountofwastebeingreceivedandgasgenerationpertonneofwastedecreasing)andhencethelandfillbusinessisbecomingunsustainable.Thishasledtosomeofthemajorplayersleavingtheindustryandtoafundingshortfallforthelongtermmanagementoflandfill(Beavenetal.,2014).Itseemslikelythatthereisalong-termrequirementforlandfillintheUKandthatanalternativefundingmechanismwillneedtobedeveloped(Watsonetal.,2016,WatsonandPowrie,2014).Otherissuesarisingfromlandfillsincludetheredevelopmentofland(e.g.housing&HS2)andpollutionrisks.

Recyclingobjectives:TheincreaseinUKrecyclinghasslowedandinsomeareas,stopped.Walesistheonlynationontargettomeetthe50%2020recyclingtarget.Itseemslikelythatthisisduetoavarietyofreasons(e.g.(MortonandRead,2017)someofwhiche.g.LApricecuttingleadingtoreducedcommunicationbudgetcontributingtoconfusion/disinterestamongstconsumers).Itispossiblethiswillneedtobeincentivisedmoreeffectively,possiblybyincreasingproducerresponsibility.

28.Whatarethebarrierstoachievingamorecirculareconomy?Whatwouldthecostsandbenefits(privateandsocial)be?

Principalbarriers:

1. Designwhichfailstoincorporatetheprinciplesofthewastehierarchy(CurranandWilliams,2012)for:i) Reduction,ii) Reuse,iii) Repair,iv) Refurbishment,v) Remanufacturing,vi) Recycling,

2. Accessibilityandavailabilityoffacilitiestoundertakeandperformthe6“R’s”.

3. Recoverabilityandseparationofmaterials(recoveryrateandqualityofrecycledmaterials).

4. Amarketanddemandforproductsandmaterialsrecoveredusingthe6“R’s”.

5. Foreignmarketsforrecyclatesarebecomingincreasinglyselectivesoqualityneedstoincrease(MortonandRead,2017).Betterdesignandimprovededucation/communicationwouldhelp.Domesticindustriescouldcreatemoresustainablemarketsforrecyclates.

Thebenefitswouldbe:1. Lessrelianceonimportedrawmaterials2. Lesswaste(withassociateddisposalcosts)3. Significanteconomicsavings(e.g.(EllenMacArthurFoundation,2017))

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