response - aspen global change instituteand global warming potential (gwp) will also change. non-co...
TRANSCRIPT
Role of Other Greenhouse Gases -Role of Other Greenhouse Gases -ResponseResponse
Atul K. JainAtul K. JainDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Illinois, Urbana, IL University of Illinois, Urbana, ILemail: [email protected]: [email protected]
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Main ConclusionMain Conclusion
CO2 will be the maincontributor to the future totalradiative forcing andtemperature change.
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Increase in Radiative Forcing from pre-Increase in Radiative Forcing from pre-industrial timesindustrial times
Based on Jain et al.2000
CO2
59%CH4
21%
N2O6%
CFCs and HCFCs
13%
SF6, PFCsHFCs
1%
CO2
69%
CH4
18%
N2O7%
CFCs,HCFCs
1%SF6, PFCs
1%
HFCs4%
(1765-2000) = 2.45 Wm-2 (1765-2100) = 5.05-8.31 Wm-2
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What Other Greenhouse Agents are Forcing Climate?
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Non-CONon-CO22 Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases(GHGs) & Climate Change(GHGs) & Climate Change
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases include the gases listedunder the Kyoto Protocol (CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,and SF6), as well as other fluorinated compoundsalready listed under Montreal Protocol and itsAmendments.
Why is it so important to study thecontribution of non-CO2 GHGs to climatechange and mitigation?
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Why are Non-COWhy are Non-CO22 Gases Important ? Gases Important ?Non-CO2 GHGs are major Contributors to increase in
radiative forcings on climate since 1750.
Non-CO2 GHGs effect the lifetimes of many greenhousegases. As a GHG’s lifetime changes, its climate forcingand Global Warming Potential (GWP) will also change.
Non-CO2 GHGs, since they arise from a variety ofsources, offer the potential to increase flexibility andlower the cost of meeting emission targets relative toCO2 abatement alone
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Anthropogenic Control of the Major GHGases
CH4 emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr)fossil fuels 17%biomass burning 5%landfills 7%ruminants 14%rice 9%pollution (lifetime) ??%
N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr)industrial processes 7%biomass burning 3%agriculture 24%cattle/feedlots 12%
CFC & HCFC emissions (<< 1 Tg/yr)refrigeration, foam, propellant, cleaningphased out under Montreal Protocol
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Anthropogenic Control of the Other GHGases
PFCs = CF4 + ... (13 Gg/yr ++)anthropogenic*** 100%aluminum, industrial
SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ++)anthropogenic 100%insulation, electrical switches
HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ++)anthropogenic 100%CFC partial replacements
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Anthropogenic Control of the Pollution gases
CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr)fossil & domestic fuel 32%biomass burning 25%
NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr)fossil fuels 65%biomass burning 14%agriculture/soils 12%
VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr)fossil fuel 28%biomass burning 6%
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CH4
CO is an indirect greenhouse gas
CO emissions are effectivelyequivalent to CH4 emissions:
100 Tg-CO = 5 Tg-CH4(IPCC, TAR)
OHCO O3
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Anthropogenic Impact through Reactive Pollutants1750 - 2000
18002000 O3 OH
CH4 +4.6 DU - 30 %NOX +4.1 + 14CO +1.2 - 11VOC +0.5 - 5sum +10 DU - 32 %
“observed” +9 (±4) ??
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Effective Reactive Pollutant Contribution to CH4
CH4 320 Tg(CH4)/y = direct emission
NOx 40 Tg(N)/y - 80 Tg(CH4)/y
CO 1000 Tg/y + 50 Tg(CH4)/y
VOC 250 Tg/y + 30 Tg(CH4)/y
(IPCC TAR)
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What is the impact of including non-CO2What is the impact of including non-CO2 GHGs GHGs??Example: CH4 mitigation in the U.S.Example: CH4 mitigation in the U.S.
Science ArticleScience Article((29 October 1999, Vol 286, pp. 905-906)29 October 1999, Vol 286, pp. 905-906)
HayhoeHayhoe et al. et al.
A significant amount of CH4 emissions for the UnitedStates can be reduced with economically justified optionswith no reduction costs. Based on the latest abatementcosts, we estimate that for short-term targets, CH4 canoffset CO2 reductions and reduce U.S. costs by more than25% relative to strategies involving CO2 alone.
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COCO22 and CH and CH44 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Emission Reduction (MtC eq)
Mar
gina
l Aba
tem
ent C
ost (
1992
$/tC
eq)
CO2 abatement 2000CH4 abatement 2000CO2 abatement 2010CH4 abatement 2010
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
30 40 50 60 70 80
Abatement costs for CH4 increase gradually up to 75 MtCeq, or 40%of projected CH4 emissions
In contrast to CH4 costs, the carbon permit fees needed to providean economic incentive for CO2 reduction increase gradually
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Comparison of Emission Reduction CostsComparison of Emission Reduction Costs(Year 2010)(Year 2010)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Emission Reduction (MtCeq)
Ratio
of C
O2+
CH4
Cost
s to
CO
2-on
ly
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Tota
l Cos
t (%
of p
roje
cted
GDP
)
CH4+CO2 CO2-only
ratio = cost of in 2010
Case 1 - CO2 reduction onlyCase 2 - CH4 + CO2 reduction
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Illustrative emission pathwayIllustrative emission pathway
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Tota
l Cos
t (%
of p
roje
cted
GD
P)
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Cost of Illustrative Emission ScenarioCost of Illustrative Emission Scenariowith CHwith CH4 4 (green) vs. without CH(green) vs. without CH4 4 (red)(red)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Tota
l Cos
t (%
of p
roje
cted
GD
P)
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Contribution of CHContribution of CH44 to Total CO to Total CO22-Equivalent-EquivalentReductionsReductions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
CO2-equivalent emission reductions (GtCeq)
Cont
ribut
ion
of C
H4 (%
)
GWP = 5GWP = 24GWP = 65
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ConclusionsConclusions Including non-CO2 GHGs in emission reduction
schemes has the potential to greatly reduceCO2 controls and total costs, particularly in theshort term
CH4 alone can reduce costs by over 25%relative to CO2-only
The contribution of CH4 and other non-CO2GHGs to multi-gas reduction targets dependsstrongly on how the gases are weightedrelative to CO2.
Due to the strong impact of atmosphericchemistry on CH4 concentrations, emissionsof CO, NOx and NMHCs are likely to affect thecontribution of CH4 to a multi-gas reductionscheme.