1. AsiaPacificInitiative(API) Climate,EnergyandFoodSecurityRespondingtotheChallengeof ClimateChange Fromaninternationalperspective 24December,2010 HironoriHamanaka Professor,KeioUniversity GraduateSchoolofMediaandGovernance Chair,BoardofDirectorsInstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies(IGES)

2. OutlineCompellingscientificevidenceFromBalitoCopenhagentoCancunBeyondCancunAwayforward:takingactionstowardatransitiontolowcarbonsocieties 2 Source WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitution

3. Increasinglyfrequentextremeweatherevents HeatwaveandforestfireinRussia,source NationalGeographicNews,12August2010 FloodinginsouthernPakistan(picturetakenin5 August2010),source AFP

4. RetreatingHimalayanGlaciersSource: Nagoya University

5. Climategate:theresultsofindependentreviews TheIndependentClimateChangeEmailsReview(July2010) Wedidnotfindanyevidenceofbehaviourthatmight underminetheconclusionsoftheIPCCassessments. IPCCpressreleaseinviewofthefindingsfromthereview conductedbytheNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessment Agency(July2010) ThekeyconclusionsoftheIPCC4th AssessmentReportare accurate,correctandsupportedentirelybytheleading science inthefield. FindingsoftheInterAcademyCouncil(August2010) IPCCassessmentprocesshasbeensuccessfuloverall. However,theIPCCmustcontinuetoadaptto changing conditionsinordertocontinueservingwellinthefuture.

6. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.Source: Martin Manning, Climate Change 2007: Observations and Drivers of Climate Change

7. GlobalandcontinentaltemperaturechangeMost of the observed increase in global Source: IPCCaverage temperatures since the mid-20 th Fourthcentury is very likely due to the observed Assessmentincrease in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007 Models using only natural forcings Observations Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings

8. GlobalanthropogenicGHGemissionsSource: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: SynthesisReport, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

9. Emissionallowancesin2020/2050forvariousGHGconcentrationlevels (relativeto1990emissions)Source:IPCCAR4WGIIIReport,Chapter13,p776.

10. ClimateChangePolitics Dividedworld:developedvs.developingcountries Historicalresponsibility andequity Universalparticipationneededforeffectiveresponse Commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities Challengeofalteringcarbonintensive practices intensive Policiesadvocatedbyscientistsandenvironmentalists oftenconflictwithbusinessinterests. businessinterests Impactofgreenpolitics inEurope,particularlyin Germany Noregretpolicy vs.costeffectivemarketmechanisms regretpolicy vs.environmentalintegrity

11. KyotoProtocol(1997) Legallybindingtargets fordevelopedcountry Parties:Japan6%,U.S.7%,EU8%,etc. 8% GHGs:CO2,CH4,N2O,HFCs,PFCs,SF6. Baseyear:1990 (AnydevelopedcountryPartymay use1995forHFCs,PFCsandSF6) Commitmentperiod:2008 2012. UseofGHGremovalsbyLULUCF (landuse,landuse changeandforestry)activities. Introductionofflexiblemechanisms: Emissionstrading,jointimplementation(JI)and Emissionstrading theCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM). theCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM

12. ChronologyofclimatepoliticsaftertheKyotoProtocolenteredintoforce KyotoProtocolenteredintoforce(2005) MOP1(Montreal,2005) FormallyadoptedtheMarrakechAccords,setting Protocolimplementationinmotion. Protocolimplementationinmotion IPCC4th AssessmentReport(2007) BaliActionPlan (COP13,2007) Decidedtolaunchacomprehensiveprocess inordertoreachanagreedoutcomeand adoptadecisionatCOP15 inCopenhagen. CopenhagenAccord(COP15,2009) CancunAgreement (COP16,2010)

13. BaliActionPlan (2007) Partieslaunchedacomprehensiveprocesstoaddress: Partieslaunched Asharedvision for alongtermglobalgoalfor emissionreductions, Enhanced actiononmitigationofclimatechange: Measurable,reportableandverifiable(MRV) commitments oractions, byalldevelopedcountry Parties,whileensuringthecomparability ofefforts amongthem, Nationallyappropriatemitigationactions bydeveloping countryPartiesinthecontextofsustainable development,supportedandenabledbytechnology, development, financingandcapacitybuilding,inaMRVmanner.

14. BaliActionPlan(continued) Partieslaunchedacomprehensiveprocess: Partieslaunched Enhancedactiononmitigation (continued):REDD,etc. (continued): Enhancedactiononadaptation toclimatechange Enhancedactionontechnologydevelopmentand transfer Enhancedactionontheprovisionof financialresources andinvestment Partieshavebeenconductingnegotiationsmainly throughtwonegotiatingtracks: AWGLCA AWGKP

15. NegotiationprocessundertheBaliActionPlanHowitdiffersfromthatontheKyotoProtocol? NegotiationprocessontheKyotoProtocol FocusedonthestrengtheningoftheAnnexIParties commitments ImpactoftheProtocolontheoverallemissionreduction islimited,sinceitcoverslessthan30%ofglobal emissions NegotiationprocessundertheBaliActionPlan Aimsatenhancingactionsbydevelopingcountries and bytheUS,inadditiontoenhancedactionsbydeveloped countryPartiestotheProtocol Enhancingactionsbydevelopingcountriesisclosely linkedtosupportbydevelopedcountries 16

16. Politicallyagreedgoalfor climateprotection G8leadersatLAquilaSummit(2009): Recognizedthebroadscientificviewthatglobalaverage temperatureoughtnottoexceed2 , Reiteratedtheirwillingnesstosharewithallcountries thegoalofachievingatleasta50%reductionofglobal emissionsby2050, emissionsby2050 Supportedagoalofdevelopedcountries reducingGHG emissionsinaggregateby80%ormoreby2050. 80%ormoreby2050 TheCopenhagenAccord(COP15,Copenhagen,2009): Recognizedthattheincreaseinglobaltemperature shouldbebelow2 .

17. Staying under the 2 threshold will require a verystringent goal, and the longer the delay inimplementation, the steeper the trajectory required And yet, there are large differences in per capita emissions among regions and countries Source: Global Environment Outlook GEO4 environment for development,UNEP, 2007

18. HalvingglobalGHGemissionsandensuringcarbonspacefordevelopment

19. Isitpossiblefordevelopingcountriestotakepathwaystowardslowcarbonleapfrogdevelopment? It is important to avoid the risk of locking in more CO2-intensive energy technologies, and to capture an opportunity to leapfrog towards a low-carbon economy Source: Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Dr. Mikiko Kainuma, NIES, 2008

20. Concernsoverpledgingtargetsandtakingmitigationactions Developedcountries Howbigtheeconomicburden theywouldhaveto bear? Aretheireffortscomparable tothoseof othermajor economies?Wouldtheyhurttheirinternational competitiveness? competitiveness Developingcountries Howmuchimpactpledgedactionswouldhaveontheir policiestoeradicatepoverty andachievesustainable development? development Whetherandhowthesupport pledgedbydeveloped countrieswouldactuallybedelivered?

21. Copenhagen Accord(2009) AtCOP15,mostPartiessupportedthe CopenhagenAccord,inthatthey: Recognizedthattheincreasein globaltemperatureshouldbebelow2 . AnnexIParties committoimplementemissions targets for2020,tobesubmittedby31January 2010. NonAnnexIParties willimplementmitigation actions,includingthosetobesubmittedby31 January2010,thatwillbesubjecttotheirdomestic measurement,reportingandverification(MRV)

22. CopenhagenAccord(Continued) NonAnnexIParties theresultof(domesticMRV) willbereportedthroughtheirnational communicationseverytwoyears,withprovisionsfor internationalconsultationsandanalysis(ICA) under clearlydefinedguidelines.Mitigationactionsseeking internationalsupport willbesubjecttointernational MRV. Thecollectivecommitmentbydevelopedcountries istoprovidenewandadditionalresources, approachingUSD30billionfortheperiod20102012. Developedcountriescommittoagoalofmobilizing jointlyUSD100billiondollarsayearby2020 to addresstheneedsofdevelopingcountries.

23. CopenhagenAccordandItsImplementation CopenhagenAccord,whilenotbeingformallyadopted bytheCOP,andonlytakennoteof,isastepforward toenabledevelopingcountriestotakemitigation actions,andtoensuretransparency oftheseactions, inadditiontoenhancingmitigationcommitmentsby developedcountries. TheAccordhas beensignedupbynearly140 countries and morethan80countrieshavesubmitted theirmitigationtargets/actions.

24. Mitigationtargets/actionssubmittedbyParties Country Mitigationtargets/actions Japan 25%reductionfrom1990level EU 20%reductionfrom1990level US 17%reductionfrom2005level China 4045%reductionofCO2/GDPfrom2005level Korea 30%reductionfromBAUlevel Indonesia 26%reductionfromBAUlevel India 2025%reductionofCO2/GDPfrom2005level Brazil 36.138.9%reductionfromBAUlevel

25. MajorChallengesremainedafterCopenhagen Buildingtrustandconfidence isessential: Torestorefaithinmultilateralprocess Toachieveanagreementonanewinternational climateregimethatisinclusive,effectiveand equitable,and Toensurestrongermitigationactionsthatwillbe necessarytofillthegapstillremaining between targetsandactionspledgedbyPartiesandGHG emissionspathwaysthatcanlimittheglobal temperatureincreasebelow2 .

26. CancunAgreement(2010) COP16adoptedtheCancunAgreement andrestoredfaith inmultilateralprocess: Transparencyandinclusive process ThemainCopenhagenoutcomeshavebeenformally broughtundertheUNFCCC Onmitigation,COP16: Createdaprocessforanchoringmitigationpledgesby developedanddevelopingcountries, EstablishedaregistryforNAMAs bydeveloping countriesandenhancedproceduresonMRV/ICA OtherimportantoutcomesincludeonREDD+, adaptation,finance,andtechnology.

27. BeyondCancun Bigchallengestobetackledinclude: Raisingdevelopedcountries levelofambition oftheir targets,withaviewtoreducingtheiraggregate emissionsinaccordancewiththerangeindicatedby theIPCCFourthAssessmentReport. Thelegalform oftheoutcometobeadoptedby COP17in2011stillremainsopen.Majoroptionsare theKyotoProtocol(2nd commitmentperiod)plusCOP decision orplusnewprotocol. TheissueofthecontinuationoftheKyotoProtocol remainsunresolved.

28. Awayforward Scientificevidenceindicatesseriousimpactof climatechange: Weneedtoavoiddisastrousconsequence. Transitiontolowcarbonsocietiesrequiresa fundamentalchange addressingtheveryroot cause oftheproblem. Weneedtotakedecisiveactions andtoseekto gaintheadvantageofearlymovers. Recognizingourcarbonandotherecological footprint isoneoftheimportantfirststepsto takeaction

29. Globalecologicalovershoot depletingtheveryresourcesonwhichhumanlifeand biodiversitydependToday humanity uses the equivalent of 1.3 planets toprovide the resources we use and absorb our wasteSource: World Footprint Do we fit on the planet?, Global Footprint Network,http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/

30. EcologicalFootprintQuizSource: http://myfootprint.org/en/

31. EcoHomeDiagnosis Aninterestingexperimentalprogrammebeing promotedbytheHyogoPrefecturalGovernmentin collaborationwithIGES. 4 steps: 1. Recognize your position 2. Choose/ set your target 3. Know sources and quantities of CO2 emissions from your daily life at home 4. Develop customized actions at home to achieve your targetSource: http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/view.php?docid=2482

32. Where is your familys carbon emissions ranked? Carbon emissionsPower rates Gas rates Your family is ranked at Among 100 families.Your Average Your Averagefamily family Source: http://www.uchi-eco.com/index.php?mode=uchieco

33. Carbonemissionsathome:fromwhatsourcesandhowmuchamount? Use of hot water Use of motor vehicle If you choose modest eco-action, you need to reduce your CO2 emissions by 17%. Other sources

34. ActionsforreducingCO2emissions CO2 Energy costChoose your actions for CO2 reduction reduction reduction Target Target Purchase efficient hot water supply system achieved! Reduce the use of motor vehicle by half

35. Thankyouverymuch HironoriHamanaka Professor,KeioUniversity GraduateSchoolofMediaandGovernance ChairoftheBoardofDirectorsInstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies hamanaka@iges.or.jp