respective roles of nuclear and non- nuclear forces as instruments of policy december 14, 2005 keith...
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Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy
December 14, 2005
Keith B. Payne
President, National Institute for Public Policy
Chair, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University
2National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
3National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
4National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
5National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
6National Institute for Public Policy
Policy Priorities and Effects ShapeAppropriate Weapon Choice
• Audiences?
• Prioritization of Policy Goals?
• Trade-offs?
Policy Objectives, Trade-offs and Effects May be Decisive, Not Targeting Efficiency