resilience.ioWebinar

28th October 2014@resilienceIO

Agenda

1.Introduction – 5 minsStephen PassmoreHead of Platform Development - TEST

2.Model Processes and Functions – 30 minsRembrandt KoppelaarModelling research lead - IIER

3.Questions – 25 mins

Enquiries: Alexander.Schmidt@ecosequestrust.org

Some Fundamentals• We are facing the combined challenges of climate change,

population increase and urbanisation, increasing resource scarcity and its impact on our economies, society and environment.

• This is a systemic challenge – we need to meet it with systems thinking and a coordinated response that stimulates closer collaboration between the public, private, knowledge and community sectors.

• City-regions are on the front line and where systemic change has the potential to deliver the most rapid benefits.

The Ecological Sequestration Trust• TEST is a UK Charity formed in 2011 to speed up and scale

up transformative urban/rural development towards a resilient, low carbon, resource efficient way of living.

• We operate in the space between private, pubic, knowledge and community sectors to facilitate systems integration and to support collaborative decision making on policies and investment.

• TEST has brought together world-leading modellers and sector experts to design and create the world’s first open-source, fully integrated resource and economics systems model for city-regions.

Resilience.io Platform

Technical Brief on Model Architecture & Decision Support

28 October 2014

Rembrandt Koppelaar – Modelling Research Lead Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER)

A new approach to sustainability and resilience

NowWhere we could be with systems

thinking and an urban-rural approach

• Sequential approach in project evaluation• Conventional economic assessment dominates • Short term political and finance cycle perspective• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy,

urban and rural viewed separately)• Social benefit at the end of the line (not transparent)

• INTEGRATED DESIGN

• INTEGRATED PLANNING

• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN

DESIGN

PLANNING

DEVELOPMENT

Approach to Sustainable Regions

• A Regional Approach Is Fundamental• Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build

regional capacity and shared confidence to act• Must unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a

common/credible economic analyses

Overview

• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics

• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights

• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model

• Cross-Sector Collaboration

Components Overview

Model core is a link between:

• Resource conversions (material & energy balance + labour).

• Agent based socio-economics (human activities & decisions).

Both components are calibrated for each location and run with a set of selected “rules” for institutions and policies

Biophysical resource conversions

• All activities across sectors can be described as resource conversions with labour inputs in space and time.

• Systematic Resource Conversion Process Library across all sectors (14).

• Hard-coded boundary description for allocation to spatial landscapes.

• Modular setup to enable creation of local configurations.

Source of top figure: Brandt et al. (2013) Calculating systems-scale energy efficiency and net energy returns : A bottom-up matrix-based approach. Energy 62. p.235-247Source of bottom figure:: Kuosmanen, N., Kuosmanen,T., (2013). Modeling Cumulative Effects of Nutrient Surpluses in Agriculture: A Dynamic Approach to Material Balance Accounting. Ecological Economics. 90. p. 159-167.

Spatial resource conversion allocation

Identification of Infrastructure:

•Company or Household

•Spatial location

•Outputs produced (company)

•Production typology (company)

•Infrastructure typology

Facilitates automated spatial allocation of resource conversions, labour & employee requirements, infrastructure material stocks, embodied flows.

Distribution centre

Meat process factory

Football stadium

Hospital

Residences

Activity Based Consumption

• Simulated people carry out activities in time and space.

• Core activities include leisure, work, food consumption, travel, ‘maintenance’, and sleep.

• Activities linked to Resource Consumption Baskets of Materials and Energy.

• Simulated activity profile translated to resource consumption profile in space and time.

Source of figures: Keirstead, J., Sivakumar, A., 2012. Using Activity-Based Modeling to Simulate Urban Resource Demands at High Spatial and Temporal Resolutions.Journal of Industrial Ecology. 16(6). pp. 889 – 900.

Agent Decision Socio-Economics

PeoplePeopleInstitutions

(Regulatory, Planning, Soft Policies, Culture)

Institutions (Regulatory, Planning, Soft Policies, Culture)

GovernmentGovernment

DecisionsDecisions

MarketsMarkets

Outcomes(Production, Investment, Activities, Well-being as happiness and health,

etc.)

Outcomes(Production, Investment, Activities, Well-being as happiness and health,

etc.)

DemographicsDemographics

FirmographicsFirmographics

CompaniesCompanies

HouseholdsHouseholds

Labour

Supply &Demand

Supply &Demand

Shape

Sha

pe

Shape

Make

MakeM

akeInfluence

Influence

External World

External World

Regulate

Supply & Demand

Agent interactions organised by markets

• Exchange of Goods and Services from Transactions Markets.

• Change in occupations and jobs from Labour Markets.

• Change in Physical Capital from investment & property markets (Biosphere + Technosphere).

• Change in Human Capital from Educational and Labour Markets (Degrees + Experience) as well as Health Markets.

Transactions of Goods &

Services Markets

Investment & Property Markets

Agents as1) Consumers 2) Processors

3) OwnersHealthMarkets

LabourMarkets

EducationalMarkets

Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being

Creating Visibility on Ecosystems, Environment & Health relationships

• Simulated resource conversions result in flows of waste and pollution to air, soil, surface, water bodies in space and time.

• Flows can be combined with existing databases of human and eco-toxicity indicators for environmental impact assessment.

• Simulation framework facilitates connection to existing regional ecosystem models with feedbacks (flows, ecosystem services).

• Impacts on Human Health in space and time become visible by environmental exposure, activity decision change, feedbacks of ecosystem degradation or improvements.

Overview

• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics

• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights

• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model

• Cross-Sector Collaboration

Decision Support for Regional Design

• Resilience.io is not a predictive modelling platform which describes the future.

• Resilience.io is normative as it creates insights in how to shape the future.

• Its value is the ability to simulate investment, planning, and policy decisions.

• And giving users visibility on decision impact at economic, social, and environmental dimensions.

Model

RegionalDesign

SimulationResults

Investment

Planning

Policies

Visibility

Resilience

Performance

States

Investment, Policy, Planning, Impacts visible at multiple levels

Level 2 : Indicator relational details

& graphical output

Level 3: Quantitative & Qualitative

Variable and Parameter mapping

Level 4: Technical report Identification of relational

and data gaps and potential for improvement

Comprehensiveness of process and agent relations and data

input

Level 1 – Key Performance Indicators

Indicators include Stability and Resilience

• Value at Risk due to Natural & Societal Events are measured by impact on Capital (Social, Economic, Natural, Physical)

• Stability continuity in supply of goods and services + pursuit of activities

• Resilience ability to mitigate shocks and prevent irreversible capital loss

Economic Response-Capital Re-allocation-Capital Re-configuration

Economic Impact-Capital Mitigation-Capital Loss

Natural-Climate Change-Pathogens-Ecosystem change

Societal-Social Disruptions-Supply Chains-Market Shocks

Economic Instruments

Legislative & Public Instruments

Taxes and tax concessions Purchasing Tradable

Permits

Educational programmes

Standards and Penalties Covenants

Accreditation systems

Licensing

Subsidies and grants

Public service provision

Simulating Policy Decisions

• The model is delivered with a library of policy options.

• Policy effects are simulated based on changes in market operation and decisions.

• Impacts become visible through changes in outcomes (production, consumption, activities) and indicators (social, economic, environmental) in space and time.

• Users can put policies into effect and vary their degree.

Simulating Investments and Procurement

• Companies start investment decision evaluation based on threshold conditions (e.g. capital, market conditions, credit).

• Simulated investments decisions are based on a three-step procedure, first: technology choice, second: selection of plausible options, third: cost-benefit analysis.

• Users can analyse investment condition impacts by adjusting parameters requirements (NPV, ROI, BCR, Diversification, Time Horizon), value inclusion (Economic, Social, Environmental), and degree of cross-sector information in simulation.

• Users can as “central planner” choose their own investment decisions at both company and government levels, overriding internal simulation decisions.

Simulating Planning Decisions

• At baseline for each demonstrator the local spatial planning map is reconstructed in the model.

• The platform user can adjust planning rules as a “planning permission authority” about land use, construction, and demolition, based on parameter settings.

• Any investment or policy decision generated in the simulation will be evaluated and accepted or rejected based on the user set planning rules.

Built environment

change

Built environment

change

Planning Investment

Planning Investment

Simulated Planning consideration (company /

government)

Simulated Planning consideration (company /

government)

Simulated Planning Application

Simulated Planning Application

Acceptance/Rejection based on user rules

Acceptance/Rejection based on user rules

Overview

• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics

• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights

• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model

• Cross-Sector Collaboration

Inclusive Regional Model Roll-out

Data sources for simulating people, companies andecology in time and space

Population Status• Population census data • Birth-death, marriage registers• Labour, employment records• Education & Health records• Happiness surveys

Market & Societal structures• Business and tax records• Company Location Data• Activity & Consumption data• Sector and Utility Networks• Crowd-sourced Surveys

Transport & Exchange• Public transport records• GPS, traffic & signal sensors• Cross boundary Imp./Exp. data• Market purchasing data• Property investment data

Ecological Information• Land registries • Soil and Water Quality • Biomass Productivity• Climatic ecosystem records • Local Ecosystem Models

Resilience.ioSimulation

Satellite Remote Sensing – Urban Environment Information - Edinburgh

Social Data - Multiple Deprivation Score at Ward/ Street Level – London

Crown copyright and database rights 2011 Ordnance Survey. London Borough of Tower Hamlets 100019288Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

Overview

• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics

• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights

• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model

• Cross-Sector Collaboration

Creating visibility for cross-sector collaboration

Ecosystems (Terrestrial, Aquatic)

x

Construction

Energy Generation

Transportation

Human and animal Services

Food processing Forestry

MineralExtraction

Physical manufacturing

Chemical manufacturing

Recycling, disposal, remanufacturing

Water Supply

Agriculture & Seafood

Biological processing

Human consumption

Demonstrate Approach through Parallel Action

in a Network of 3-5 Strategically Important

Locations(1-5m people)

Demonstrate Approach through Parallel Action

in a Network of 3-5 Strategically Important

Locations(1-5m people)

Getting People Working Together

Getting People Working Together

Regional Collaboratory

Open-sourceModel ‘living master plan’

Open-sourceModel ‘living master plan’

Cross sector capacity building

programmes – integrated

systems thinking & design

Tangible linking of social/wellbeing

benefit to physical interventions

Integrated technology and infrastructure project plans

Mobilised finance and inward investment

Live regional data cloud and

performance KPIs & metrics

Public, Private & Community

Sector Partner Access/

collaboration

Public, Private & Community

Sector Partner Access/

collaboration

Integrated regional development plan

Collaboratories ‘on the ground’

Stanford, Clark Center Stanford D. school

Warwick Research Exchange

Cambridge, Sainsbury Laboratory Arizona, Decision Theatre

Koppelaar@iier.ch

Resilience.io

Technical Brief on Model Architecture & Decision Support

Questions..

OASIS

Global ICES ESAGlobal Climate and Insurance Catastrophic Risk Modelling

User Cockpits

Integrated urban systems design/planning and procurement for sustainability and resilience

Now Where we could be with systems thinking and performance based

procurement

• Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, technology interventions etc)

• Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic plane

• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately)

• Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship to earlier planes .

• INTEGRATED DESIGN• INTEGRATED PLANNING• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN

DESIGN

PLANNING

DEVELOPMENT

OutputSuccessful

improvement in energy-water-food

security and quality of lifess

“Project portfolio”

Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model

Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’

Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds

Return Investment

Assurance

“High quality inclusive resilient growth”

Appendix

-Process Library Example-Technological Progress-3D Visualisation-Full (Eco)nomic Value

Process Library Sector ExampleData improvement

•Full supply chain accounting•Data accounting robustness•Identification of data gaps•Crosscheck validation potential

Technology appraisal•R&D technology effects•Process substitution options•Cost accounting of suppliers•Eco-efficiency priorities•Supply chain environmental impact calculation

Energy Generation

Solar Energy Wind Energy

Thin Film Solar Photovoltaic Solar

PolycrystallineMonocrystalline Amorphous

Ingot based Ribbon drawn

Sets of processes

A B C D E F G

Technology progress forecasts

3D visualisation provides a communication tool for stakeholders & investors data menu enables interactive overlay of relevant information

Labour hours •to retrieve & process materials (incl. energy) across supply chains•to transport and distribute materials•“Embodied” in infrastructure

Temporal storage cost requirements for supply chain functioning

Full (Eco)nomic Value

Price markups•Market organization•Ownership•Skill and knowledge demand/supply

Societal valuation•present vs. the future (discount rates )•Scarcity of goods in relation to demand and preferences

Ecosystem services•Provisioning•Regulating•Cultural

Human well-being•Security•Wealth for a good life•Health•Good social relations•Freedom of choice

Market Prices (Eco)nomic value

Technology Base Labour / Energy needs

Market Structure Markups & Distribution

Societal Valuation Price as a marker for value

Physical costs