research report power

8/10/2019 Research Report Power

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CRISIL CRB Customised Research BulletinJanuary 201 3

Energy


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CRISIL Customised Research BulletinCRB


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CRISIL Customised Research BulletinCRB


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Foreword

In this edition of Customised Research Bulletin, we present our viewson the power sector.

India has planned huge power capacity additions in 11 th and 12 th five

year plans to curb the growing deficit. However, issues like non-

availability of coal and gas and their pricing as also obtaining

clearances remain key challenges in achieving the targeted capacity

addition. Further, the deteriorating financial health of state distribution

utilities (DISCOMs), acts as a major hindrance in the progress of the

power sector. With several new capacities being added and rising input

prices, costs are expected to increase. Consequently, this will exertgreater pressure on state DISCOMs to increase tariffs regularly or see a

further deterioration in their financial health.

The accumulated losses of DISCOMs have reached alarming levels- a

staggering Rs 1.06 trillion in 2009-10. Annual losses rose by 20 per cent

y-o-y to Rs 275 billion in 2009-10, as average cost of supply exceeded

average revenue realised (subsidy booked basis) by Rs 0.38/unit due to

lack of tariff hikes, high aggregate, technical and commercial (AT&C)

losses and inadequate subsidies. Losses have led to an erosion of net

worth and higher dependence on borrowings.

In order to solve the problem and improve the financial health of state

DISCOMs, the government recently announced a debt restructuring

scheme. Under the scheme, outstanding short-term liabilities up to

March 31, 2012, will be transferred to the respective state governments.

State governments will also offer support in terms of interest and

principal repayment until the entire loan is serviced for these bonds.

Incentives will also be offered by the central government, subject to

improvement in operational performance in terms of loss reduction andregular tariff revisions.

Against this backdrop, we have assessed the impact of the scheme on

the power sector and its various industry participants viz, state

distribution entities, state government, generation companies and

banks.

Prasad KoparkarSenior Director

Industry & Customised Research


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Opinion SEB restructuring to benefit the power sector value chain 01

Interview Mr Sudhir Nair , Director - Customised Research 05

Economic Overview January 2013 08

Industry Overview Power 09Coal 11Renewable Energy 13

Independent Equity Research ReportNTPC Ltd. 15

Customised Research ServicesEnergy 16

Media Coverage 17

Contents

CRISIL CRB Customised Research Bulletin


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1

The Cabinet Committee has cleared the financialrestructuring scheme for state-owned distribution

companies on September 24, 2012. CRISIL Research

expects financial health of distribution companies to

gradually improve though timely implementation holds

the key. Regular tariff revisions and reduction in AT&C

losses is critical in order to recieve aid from the central

government.

Key features of the Financial RestructuringPlan

The Cabinet Committee has cleared the financial

restructuring scheme for state-owned distribution

companies on September 24, 2012. Under this

arrangement, outstanding short-term liabilities up to

March 31, 2012 will be transferred to respective state

governments. The Central government would also lend

support to the restructuring plan by way of incentives

subject to compliance of conditions laid out in thescheme. The scheme is optional and can be availed by

all States.

The broad highlights of the scheme are as follows:

50 per cent of total short-term liabilities of all

distribution companies (which stood at Rs. 1.9

trillion as on March 31, 2011) would be converted

into bonds, backed by state government

guarantees. The liabilities would be transferred to

the state government in a phased manner

State Governments to lend complete support in

terms of interest and principal repayment until the

entire loan is serviced for these bonds

Balance 50 per cent of short-term liabilities would

be rescheduled with banks and a three year

moratorium will be provided to the distribution

companies towards repayment of the principal

amount. These loans will be guaranteed by stategovernments

Central Government will offer incentives in terms of

grants on reduction of aggregate, technical and

commercial losses (AT&C) beyond that specified in

the Restructured Accelerated Power Development

& Reforms Program (R-APDRP). It will also

provide capital reimbursement of 25 per cent of

principal repayment by the State Governments on

liabilities taken over subject to reduction in revenuegap.

Incentives from the Central Government are

subject to improvement in operational performance

in terms of loss reduction and regular tariff

revisions.

Implications for State distribution companiesFinancial health of discoms to gradually improve;yet, implementation is key

The scheme envisages that participating distribution

companies operate on a more viable economic model,

backed by frequent tariff revisions, regular subsidy

disbursements from States and accrual of interest

savings. However, we believe that successful execution

of this scheme would be largely determined by timely

and adequate support from the State Governments and

operational discipline followed by distribution

companies in terms of AT&C loss reduction and

increased metering

Our view on the gradual improvement in financial health

of distribution companies is based on following factors:

Action in terms of tariff revisions has already been

initiated with 25 states announcing a healthy

revision in tariffs over the past 18 months. For

instance, Tamil Nadu hiked tariffs by 37 per cent

effective from April 2012, Rajasthan, by around 12

per cent and Maharashtra, by 16.5 per cent in

Opinion SEB restructuring to benefit the powersector value chain


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2


August 2012 (State-wise tariff hikes are tabulated

in the Annexure). As per our analysis, tariff hikes of

10-12 per cent are required to bridge the revenue

gap at an all India level. Based on the tariff orders

implemented till August 2013, we expect average

revenue realised (ARR) to increase by 8-9 per cent

in 2012-13. Given the increased debt burden on

state government due to transfer of short term

liabilities, subsidy disbursement could witness

some pressure. In this event, sharper tariffs hikes

would be required.

50 per cent of loans would be taken over and

serviced by state governments, thereby loweringthe interest burden and improving the liquidity

position of distribution companies. We foresee

overall interest savings of around Rs 75 to 80

billion per annum, which will lower per unit costs by

8 to 10 paise.

States participating in the scheme are expected to

clear all subsidies due to distribution companies.

For instance, the Haryana State distribution

company had receivables of Rs 43 billion, whilethat of Rajasthan stood at Rs. 372 billion.

Clearances of past dues, coupled with timely

subsidy payments, would improve the liquidity of

distribution companies.

We believe that each of the above factors are critical

given that no further funding from banks for working

capital requirements would be made available.

Implications for State GovernmentsTransfer of short term liabilities to StateGovernments to put pressure on finances

As stated earlier, 50% of short term liabilities of State

distribution companies as on March 31, 2012, would be

converted into bonds. These bonds are to be issued by

the SEBs and will be backed by respective state

government guarantees. Interest and principal

payments on these bonds will be serviced by the

respective State Governments until the entire liability is

taken over. Despite the phased purchase of these

bonds, state budgets could be stretched thereby

requiring some degree of flexibility in Fiscal

Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) limits.

Also, 50% of restructured debt would also be

guaranteed by the respective state governments

Before filing for the financial restructuring plan, state

governments need to comply with the following

conditions.

Make payments of all outstanding subsidies to

state distribution utilities Convert loans from the state government into

equity

Notify the tariff order for 2012-13, before availing

the scheme

Seek approval on financial restructuring plans from

state regulators

Installation of pre-paid meters to be installed for all

large consumers

Usher private sector participation in distribution

Further, State Electricity Regulatory Commissions

(SERCs) are mandated to approve regular tariff

revisions to ensure that the revenue gap is minimized.

Implications for Central GovernmentCentral government support to encourage AT&Closs reduction and regular tariff revisions

The central government will provide grants to State

Governments to the extent of 12.5 per cent (25 per cent

of the 50 per cent loans taken over by State

Governments), however, subject to 25 per cent

reduction in revenue gap as compared to that in 2011-

12. Assuming that all states avail of this scheme and

comply with the set conditions, the central government

is estimated to make reimbursements to the tune of Rs.

220-240 billion over the tenure of the bond.


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3

An additional grant, equivalent to the value of energy

saved, would be provided towards reduction of AT&C

losses beyond what is stipulated in the R-APDRP

(detailed in Annexure), . Assuming an averagerealization per unit of Rs. 3.5, a reduction of 1% T&D

loss across the country would lead to an outflow of

around Rs. 20 billion from the Centre. However, we

believe that achievement of 1 per cent reduction in a

year will remain a challenge, particularly over the

medium term.

Implications for Generation companies

Generation companies to be key beneficiaries;working capital pressure to ease

We expect generation companies, whose working

capital position has strained due to delayed power

purchase payments from discoms, to be the major

beneficiaries. As of March 2012, the aggregate pending

power purchase payments stood at Rs. 198 bn for

seven major states led by Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh,

Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The restructuring will

gradually ease pressure on working capital

requirements of the generation companies, particularly

private sector companies. Moreover, it could limit

instances of backing off by distribution entities, provide

some support to merchant power prices as well as

encourage compliance of renewable purchase

obligations (RPOs).

Implications for banksBanks to face higher provisioning requirements;NPV reduction in loans of around Rs 40 billion The conversion of 50 per cent of the short-term

debt into bonds, backed by State Government

guarantees, provides certainty over recovery of the

loan. However, the coupon rates offered on these

bonds are expected to be lower than yields offered

on the State distribution company bonds; also the

bond tenure is expected to be longer. In such a

case, banks would have to make significant

provisions on account of reduction in net present

value (around Rs 40 billion) of loans. Also,

amortising the losses would require special

dispension from RBI to evenly spread out the

same. These bonds will not be eligible to be classified

under SLR investments of banks but, will be

tradable in nature.

The restructuring of the balance 50 per cent of the

loans would entail higher provisioning (could be in

the range of Rs 10 to 15 billion). Also, State

Government guarantee on the restructured portion

of the loan will ensure higher safety of loan as

today not all loans are guaranteed by stategovernments. Further, regular tariff hikes and

increased investment, will ensure improved

viability of the operations of the State distribution

companies resulting in better chances of recovery

This scheme is not applicable on those short term

loans, which have been converted into long term

liabilities prior to March 31, 2012. Hence, those

banks which have already restructured loans

earlier will not benefit from this scheme.

Potential issues in terms of implementation ofthe scheme

Funding cash flows in the intermediate period over

the next three years, for distribution companies

and obtaining adequate support from states,

remains a challenge.

Banks, distribution companies and the State

Government may find it difficult to arrive at a

consensus on the terms of restructuring.

Weak financial health of some of the state

governments could limit the ability to take on debt

liability

Resistance from consumers in case a substantial

increase in tariffs is necessary


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4


AnnexuresGuidelines for AT&C loss reduction trajectoryunder the R-APDRP

Guidelines for AT&C loss reduction trajectory under the

R-APDRP

" Achieve the following target of AT&C loss reduction at

the entire utility level every year following the year in

which

"Part-A projects (establishing baseline data and IT

applications for energy auditing) are implemented:

Utilities having AT&C loss above 30%: Reduction

by 3% per year

Utilities having AT&C loss below 30%: Reductionby 1.5% per year

Short term liabilities for 7 discoms - March 31, 2011

(Rs crore)

State Short term Pending pow er Total short

term

loanpurchasepayment

liabilities(STL)

AP 1,425 4,876 6,301

Haryana 12,623 3,094 15,718MP 1,020 150 1,170

Punjab* 10,867 778 11,645

Rajasthan 35,941 3,769 39,710

Tamil Nadu ** ** 19146

UP 18,735 7,199 25,934

Total 7 stat 80,611 19,866 119,624

Note: * Punjab Budget has not been presented** Breakup for Tamil Nadu is not available

Source: Working Group report, Planning Commission

State-wise tariff revisions in FY 2012 and FY 2013

(till August 2012)

State Hike (%) Date

Meghalaya 16% Jan-12

Manipur 15% Feb-12

Chhattisgarh 14% Mar-12

Orissa 20% Mar-12

Arunachal Pradesh 5% Mar-12

Haryana 19% Mar-12

Tamil Nadu 37% Mar-12

Tripura 17% Mar-12

Andhra Pradesh 15% Apr-12

Uttarakhand 7% Apr-12

Bihar 12% May-12

Himachal Pradesh 9% Jun-12

Nagaland 34% Jun-12

Goa 11% Jun-12

Jharkhand 18% Jul-12

Madhya Pradesh 6% Jul-12

Delhi 21% Jul-12

Kerala 30% Jul-12

Mizoram 10% Jul-12

Punjab 12% Jul-12

Maharashtra 16% Aug-12

Rajasthan 12% Aug-12

Gujarat 4% Sep-12

J&K 17% Oct-12

Karnataka 7% Oct-12

Source: SERCs, CRISIL Research

Gap (subsidy booked basis) between ACS and ARR

(Rs /Kw h) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

ARR 2.7 3.06 3.16 3.35 3.58

ACS 2.93 3.41 3.54 3.84 4.05

Gap 0.23 0.35 0.38 0.49 0.47

ACS: Average cost of supply, ARR: Average revenue realised

Source: PFC, CRISIL Research


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5

Sudhir Nair, Director, CRISIL Research has over 18years of experience in shaping thoughts and providing

leadership to a team of analysts. Mr

in the Energy, Real Estate, Aviation, Shipping, Hotels,

Retailing, Construction and Healthcare industries. He

headed the

Cons -Hill

Construction in 2010. He has in the past overseen

such as

the SME Cluster studies & IPO Grading. He has also

successfully headed teams which initiated research

coverage on the Real Estate, Aviation, Shipping, Ports

and Airport sectors. Untill recently, he was heading a

Independent Equity Reports on Textiles,

Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Energy and

Petrochemical verticals. In his current role he heads the

customized research practice and his team provides

research solutions to various clients across the Energy,

Infrastructure, Education and Real Estate verticals. He

holds a graduate degree in commerce, post-graduate

diploma in systems management and a masters degree

in financial management.

What is the current financial health of statediscoms and does it continue to be a cause forconcern?

The financial health of state distribution utilities

(Discoms) has been deteriorating with accumulatedlosses rising to Rs. 1.23 trillion in 2010-11 from Rs. 1.06

trillion in 2009-10. These entities incurred annual book

losses of Rs. 269 billion and cash losses from

operations of Rs. 461 billion in 2010-11 (on aggregate

basis). This can be primarily attributed to under-

recovery of average cost of supply by 70 paise per unit.

Despite the rise in power purchase costs, Discoms

continue to incur losses owing to lack of adequate tariff

revisions over extended time periods due to political

compulsions. States such as Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu

had not revised tariffs for nearly 7 years, which were

revised only this fiscal. Meanwhile, power purchase

costs have continuously risen as power generation

companies have passed on the higher coal and gas

prices to distribution entities. The situation is further

aggravated by inadequate state government subsidy

and delays in its release especially in the states of

Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

What is the way forward for improving thehealth of discoms? Are we seeing any increasein power tariffs?

Being a critical utility for the development of any nation,

the distribution leg of the power sector needs to be

overhauled and allowed to function as an economically

viable entity. Various policy measures that can ensurelong-term viability of the sector need to be promoted

such as regular and timely tariff revisions, timely

provision of subsidy by state governments, control over

creation and carry forward of regulatory assets, and

encouraging private participation in order to reduce

AT&C losses.

The recent financial restructuring plan of state electricity

board (SEB) aims at doing the same with action in

Interview Mr Sudhir NairDirector - Customised Research


12/26

6


terms of tariff revisions being already initiated with 25

states announcing a healthy revision in tariffs over the

past 18 months. For instance, Tamil Nadu hiked tariffs

by 37.0 per cent effective from April 2012; Rajasthan

and Maharashtra by around 12.0 per cent and 16.5 per

cent in August 2012. The financial health of Discoms is

expected to gradually improve yet implementation of the

plan is a key monitorable.

Privatization of distribution circles or adopting a

franchise model can further aid in improving operational

efficiencies in the distribution sector. So far, instances

of privatization of power distribution are present only infew states of Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Orissa, West

Bengal and Uttar Pradesh with barring the exception of

Orissa none of the states are completely privatized.

Moreover, political unwillingness can impact potential

privatization and in the given scenario, it is imperative

that state distribution utilities function as separate and

economically viable entities.

How will be power demand-supply situation inIndia pan out and what will be the role ofrenewable energy in the same?

The power deficit gap in the country has improved over

the years to 8.5 per cent in 2011-12 from 13.8 per cent

in 2006-07 with capacity additions keeping pace with

demand growth. According to XII plan approach paper,

a GDP growth of 9 per cent annually over the plan

period will necessitate energy supply to grow at 6.5 per

cent annually. The ability to meet this energy demand

depends on the country's ability to expand domestic

production especially in critical clean energy sub-

segments of wind, solar, etc.

At present, India has an installed power generation

capacity of around 200 GW of which renewable

accounts for 25 GW with wind constituting a majority of

this capacity. Although development of renewable

power began in 1990s, the focus on the sector

especially wind and solar has increased considerably

only in the last few years with the sector no longer

Currently, India ranks fifth globally in terms of wind

capacity and added over 3,000 MW of capacity last

year, which is a substantial portion of the overall net

capacity additions in the country. Activity on the solar

front has also picked up only recently with Installed

solar capacity rising manifold to 940 MW in 2011-12

from a meagre 20 MW in 2010-11, primarily driven by

Gujarat government's solar power policy.

What are the challenges that you foresee forgrowth in the wind and solar energy sectors inthe near term?

Global economic slowdown and uncertainties over the

policy framework has in general reduced expectations

from the sector in the current fiscal year. Besides, other

factors such as lack of appropriate regulatory

framework to aid purchase of renewable energy, high

wheeling and open access charges in a few states,

inadequate grid connectivity, etc., act as potentialbarriers to achieving higher growth rates in short- to-

medium term.

Over the last decade the government has offered three

key incentives to facilitate growth in the wind sector

namely Accelerated Depreciation (AD), Generation

Based Incentive Scheme since 2009, and Renewable

Energy Certificates (REC) mechanism since 2010. The

AD benefit has been a fundamental reason for growth in

the sector in the last few years with nearly 70 per cent

of wind installations in 2011-12 being driven by the

benefit. However, the quantum of benefit has been

reduced considerably from April 2012, which can

potentially result in slower pace of capacity additions

especially by SMEs and individuals.

In the solar sector, the government introduced

Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) that


13/26

7

aims at adding 20 GW of solar capacity by 2022 apart

from introducing REC and solar-specific renewable

purchase obligations (RPOs) to provide thrust to the

sector. However, aggressively priced bids, poorfinancials of Discoms and enforcement of RPOs will

continue to be key concerns for the sector.

India has about 17.5 GW of installed capacity in wind

sector and 0.9 GW in solar sector while the total

potential in wind is about 49 GW (as per C-WET

estimates). The full exploitation of this potential will

entail focus on key thrust areas of developing

comprehensive, stable, and long term support policiesfor energy and wind sectors, increasing investments in

grid, and establishing clear long-term targets for clean

energy.


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8


Indian Economy Economic Overview January 2013

Inflation Industrial production growth Currency

Sectoral inflation Trade Grow th

Interes t rates

Foreign inflow (US$ bn) Credit grow th

High Threat Medium Threat

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12

Mfg

40

45

50

55

60

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

Avg Rs per US$

-20

0

20

40

Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12

Exports Imports

7

8

9

10

D e c - 1

1

F e b - 1

2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1

2

A u g - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1

2

1 Yr 10 Yr

-2

2

6

10

N o v - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

M a r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

S e p - 1

2

N o v - 1

2

FDI+(ECBs/FCCBs)Net FII flows

0

10

20

30

D e c - 1

0

A p r - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

A p r - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

D e c - 1

2

Non-food credit growth

0

10

20

D e c - 1

0

A p r - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

A p r - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

D e c - 1

2

PrimayFuelManufacturing

4

6

8

10

12

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

WPI CPI-IW

Macroeconomic Indicators - Forecasts

2013-14 Rationale

Grow th Agriculture 3.5

Industry 5.4

Services 8.0

Total 6.7

Inflation WPI - Average 7.0

The moderation in inflation is based on the expectation of 1) higher agricultural output assuming anormal monsoon 2) a stronger rupee 3) low er global crude oil prices due to increased globalsupply and 4) continued w eakness in demand-side pressures in the economy due to the laggedimpact of slow er GDP grow th in 2012-13.

Fiscal def icit as a % of GDP 5.5

continued pass-through of these prices to domestic consumers w ill keep the subsidy burdenunder 2.0 per cent of GDP. Overall high government expenditure, how ever w ill limit the dow nsideto fiscal deficit.

Interest rate10- year G-Sec(year end) 7.7-7.9

We expect a 75-100 bps reduction in repo rate until March-end 2014, w ith rate cuts being frontloaded f rom January 2013. High government borrow ings and higher expected credit grow th in2013-14 however, w ill limit downside to 10-year G-sec yield. In contrast, higher deposit grow thand low er inflation w ill help cap the upw ard pressure on G-sec yields.

Exchangerate

Re/US $(year end)

51-52Robust capital inflow s driven by an improved global outlook and recent policy reforms, shouldcover India's current account deficit in 2013-14 and lead to an appreciation in the rupee by March-end 2014.

Source: CRISIL Research

GDP grow th is f orecasted to pick up due to a revival in private consumption growth. A lift inagriculture (premised on a normal monsoon), low er interest rates and higher pre-election w elfarespending by the government will revive private consumption. Aided by higher consumptiongrow th and a mild recovery in exports, industrial and service grow th are projected to pick-up in2013-14.


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9

Industry Overview Power

55 GW of power generation capacities wereadded in the past 5 years

In the XIth five year plan (2007-08 to 2011-12), 55 GW

capacities were added led by the private sector, which

accounted for 41 per cent of the total additions. While

the pace of additions was slow in the initial years,

capacity additions picked up in 2010-11 with 12 GW

additions and a record 20 GW added in 2011-2012.

Despite large capacities announced during the XIth five

year plan, capacity additions fell short of Planning

Commission target of 78 GW. However, in the XIIth five

year plan, we expect structural issues such as fuel

availability, clearances and financial health of State

Electricity Boards (SEBs) to be resolved to a great

extent with proactive steps from the government. For

instance, in order to address coal availability issues, the

government has mandated CIL to sign FSAs with power

project developers, assuring coal supply to the tune of

80 per cent of the annual contracted quantity (ACQ)

through a mix of domestic and imported coal.

Moreover, SEBs, whose huge accumulated losses

impacted power offtake, would see an improvement in

their financial position with the debt restructuring plan

coupled with tariff hikes undertaken over the past 18

months.

Year-wise sector -w ise capaci ty addi tion

(conventional energy)

9,263

3,454

9,58512,381

20,502

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Central Private State

(MW)

Source: CEA, Crisil Research

Over the next five years (2012-13 to 2016-17), weexpect around 80.5 GW of capacities to be added of

which 83 per cent will be based on coal. Private sector

will account for around 58 per cent of the capacity

additions.

Power demand has grown at 6.6 per cent overthe past 5 years

Base load power demand grew at a CAGR of 6.6 per

cent in the XIth Five Year Plan. Growth in demand wasrestricted due to slow pace of capacity additions, lack of

adequate transmission infrastructure and lower offtake

by state discoms. Demand growth slowed down,

particularly in 2010-11, due to backing out by state

discoms on account of their poor financial health.

Over the last five years, the share of residential

segment in overall demand has increased from 24 per

cent in 2006-07 to 26 per cent in 2011-12, while the

share of industrial segment declined from 47 per cent to

46 per cent during the same period. At a regional level,

demand growth was led by the Southern and Eastern

regions registering over 7.5 per cent demand

expansion.

Base demand growth in XIth Five Year Plan (2007-

08 to 2011-12)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(bn units)

Source: CEA, CRISIL Research


16/26

10


On the back of strong capacity additions over the next 5

years power coupled with improvement in financial

health of state discoms demand for power is expected

to grow at a compounded rate of around 8 per as

compared to the previous 5-year CAGR of 6.6 per cent .

Base deficit remained constant in 2011-12 dueto pick up in demandBase load demand grew at a CAGR of 6.3 per cent in

the XIth Five Year Plan (2007-08 to 2011-12) while

supply increased at a CAGR of 6.6 per cent on the back

of strong capacity additions. As a result, deficit declined

to 8.5 per cent in 2010-11. Deficit remained constant in2011-12 as demand grew at a relatively faster pace of 9

per cent.

Deficit in the Southern region has increased from 2.7

per cent in 2006-07 to 8.8 per cent 2011-12 as poor

financial health of utilities in southern states, particularly

Tamil Nadu lowered capacity additions. On the other

hand deficit in the Western region declined from 15 per

cent in 2006-07 to 11 per cent in 2011-12 due to highercapacity additions and significant reductions in

Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses

mainly in Maharashtra and Gujarat. AT&C losses in

Gujarat declined from 26.3 per cent to 22 per cent in the

past five years while in Maharashtra the reduction was

much higher from 30.7 per cent in 2006-07 to 23.1 per

cent in 2011-12.

Power - Aggregate demand supply (base energy) -

Past Trend

9.6% 9.9%11.1%

10.1%

8.5% 8.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

400

800

1200

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Demand Supply Base Deficit

(bn KWh) (per cent)

Source: CEA, CRISIL Research

Private sector investments recorded sharpgrowth in past 5 yearsInvestments in the power sector (including renewable

energy) rose at an estimated CAGR of 16 per cent in

the XIth Five Year Plan (2007-08 to 2011-12)

aggregating to Rs. 6.1 trillion. CRISIL Research expects

the large capacity additions to translate to an

investment opportunity of Rs 8.9 trillion over the next 5years (including renewable energy) and concomitant

transmission and distribution (T&D). Of this, the

generation segment would constitute a majority share at

Rs 6.1 trillion. While the share of transmission is

expected to increase due to expansion plans in inter-

state transmission lines, that of distribution investments

is expected to decline on account of poor financial

health of state distribution utilities.


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11

Industry Overview Coal

Non-coking coal imports grew as consumptionoutpaced domestic production

Consumption of non-coking coal has grown at a CAGR

of 8 per cent over the last five years, rising from 424

million tonnes in 2006-07 to 557 million tonnes in 2011-

12. The increase in consumption was largely driven by

the power sector, which accounted for 67 per cent of

incremental demand with coal based capacity additions

of 40 GW over the last five years. This was followed by

captive power and sponge iron sectors which

accounted for 8 per cent and 6 per cent of the

incremental demand respectively.

Production of non-coking coal lagged demand, growing

at a CAGR of only 4.1 per cent, from 399 million tonnes

in 2006-07 to 488 million tonnes in 2011-12. Domestic

production has remained flat over the past three years

mainly due to delays in obtaining environment and

forest clearances. In particular, introduction of

Comprehensive Environmental Pollution Index (CEPI)

and imposition of the 'go-no-go' regime in 2010-11

restricted production growth. Consequently, imports of

non-coking coal increased from 25 million tonnes in

2006-07 to 69 million tonnes in 2011-12 at a CAGR of

22.5 per cent. Indonesia was the largest exporter of non

coking coal to India, accounting for 70-75 per cent of

the total imports.

Snapshot of demand - supply scenario of non-

coking coal over the last five years

399 423 458 488 483 48825 28 38

46 49 696% 6%

7%8% 8%

11%

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2 0 0 6 - 0

7

2 0 0 7 - 0

8

2 0 0 8 - 0

9

2 0 0 9 - 1

0

2 0 1 0 - 1

1

2 0 1 1 - 1

2 E

i n m

i l l i o n

t o n n e s

Domestic SupplyImportsImports/Demand Ratio(RHS)

Source: Ministry of Coal, CRISIL Research

Imports of metallurgical coking coal surge asdomestic production stagnates

Domestic demand for metallurgical coking coal, which is

used in the production of steel through the pig iron / hot

metal route, increased from 35 million tonnes in 2006-07 to 48 million tonnes in 2011-12, growing at a CAGR

of 6.3 per cent. This was led by a 6 per cent growth in

production of pig iron / hot metal over 2006-07 to 2011-

12.

Domestic production of metallurgical coking coal, on the

other hand, remained flat at around 17 million tonnes

given limited availability of quality coal. As a result,

imports of metallurgical coking coal have increased at a

CAGR of 12.3 per cent from 18 million tonnes in 2006-

07 to 32 million tonnes in 2011-12.


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12


Demand - supply scenario of coking coal in India

51% 55% 55% 58% 52%67%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

0102030405060

2 0 0 6 - 0

7

2 0 0 7 - 0

8

2 0 0 8 - 0

9

2 0 0 9 - 1

0

2 0 1 0 - 1

1

2 0 1 1 - 1

2

Domestic SupplyImportsImports to Demand Ratio(RHS)

(in million tonnes)

Source: Ministry of Coal, CRISIL Research

Coal pricing shifts to GCV based pricingmechanism

Domestic coal prices are determined by Coal India

Limited (CIL) in consultation with the Government on an

ad-hoc basis. The last price revision took place in

February 2011. For the first time, CIL adopted a

differential pricing approach by increasing the prices of

coal for end-users (non-priority sectors) such as steel,

cement, paper, and aluminum, while effecting only a

marginal increase in prices for deemed essential

services such as power utilities, fertilizers, and defense

sectors. This differential pricing is intended to bring coal

prices consumed by non-priority sectors in line with the

international coal prices.

From January 2012, a new pricing system was adopted

for supply of non-coking coal under the Fuel Supply

Agreement (FSA) mechanism. Under the new pricing

mechanism, non-coking coal prices are linked to the

Gross Calorific value (GCV) of the coal. Under the UHV

route, the ash and moisture content in coal were

considered for pricing purpose. This change in pricing

mechanism has not had any major impact on the price

of coal.

In addition to coal supplied under the FSA mechanism,

CIL sells about 10-13 per cent of its total production via

e-auctions, where the pricing is market determined.

Given the constraints in domestic availability of coal, the

price of coal sold under e-auctions is at a premium, with

the realisation being twice that of coal sold under the

FSA mechanism. Moreover, the price of e-auction coal

moves in line with international coal prices. E-auction

prices for the first half of 2012-13 (y-o-y) fell due to

declining international prices, which decreased by about

25 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Price trend of E-auction coal

22462435

2852 28512561

2282

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

(Rs/tonne)

Source: Coal India, CRISIL Research


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13

Industry Overview Renewable Energy

3.2 GW capacity added in 2011-12

Wind power constituted 9 per cent of all India

generation capacity in 2011-12. However, its share in

renewable energy capacity is the highest at 70 per cent

(24 GW) as of March 2012. Wind power is estimated to

have accounted for around 3 per cent of the country's

total power generated in 2011-12.

The installed capacity of wind power has grown at a 5-

year compounded annual growth rate of 20 per cent to

17.4 GW as of March 2012, primarily driven by the

accelerated depreciation benefit. Of this, wind power

capacities of 3.2 GW were added in 2011-12,

substantially higher than that witnessed in the past (as

seen in the graph below). These capacity additions

were led by -

Small and medium enterprises (SME) and

individuals who rushed to avail the accelerated

depreciation benefit, which was set to expire inMarch 2012.

Apart from this scheme, high tariffs for commercial

and industrial users encouraged capacity additions

from captive consumers.

The above rationale is driven by the fact that

around 70 per cent of the total capacities availed

the accelerated depreciation benefit scheme and

most of them were very small in size (less than 5

MW).

Installed capacity and capacity additions (2007-08

to 2011-12)

8.810.2

11.814.2

17.4

1.7 1.5 1.6 2.33.2

02

468

101214161820

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12In stal led capaci ty Cap aci ty ad di tions

(GW)

Source: MNRE

Tamil Nadu continued to be the largest windpower market in 2011-12Wind power capacity of 3.2 GW added in 2011-12 was

led by Tamil Nadu and Gujarat as investors rushed to

add capacities before the expiry of the accelerateddepreciation benefit in March 2012. The two states

together accounted for 60 per cent of the total capacity

additions for the year.

Tamil Nadu remained the largest wind power market in

terms of installed capacity in 2011-12 with a share of 40

per cent. However, growth in capacity additions was

relatively muted as compared to the past trend due to:

Payment issues owing to the weak financial health

of discoms. The revenue gap of the discoms stood

at Rs 134 billion for 2011-12, while accumulated

losses stood at Rs 195 billion at the end of 2011-

12.

Tamil Nadu has installed wind capacity of 7,000

MW, whereas the current transmission

infrastructure capacity is adequate to evacuate

only around 3,000 MW.


20/26

14


Lack of connectivity of the southern grid to the

national grid.

In 2011-12, Gujarat added almost 2.5 times the

capacities added in 2010-11 due to ease in project

execution (aided by government support) and relatively

better financials of the discom.

In spite of having high wind power potential, Karnataka

and Andhra Pradesh have been unable to capitalise on

it. Much of the land available for installation of wind

projects in Karnataka is forest land. Forest clearance

issues and difficult terrain have restricted developmentin the state. On the other hand, Andhra Pradesh has

one of the highest evacuation and transmission charges

(5 per cent of the energy transmitted), which are to be

borne by the project developer. Moreover, preferential

tariffs are unattractive in both the states.

States flexible with RPO targets due to lack ofpenalty enforcement for non-compliance

Non-solar RPO obligations state-wise (2011-12)

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

K a r n a t a

k a ( 1 )

K a r n a t a

k a ( 2 )

T a m

i l N a d u

R a j a s t

h a n

M a h a r a s

h t r a

G u j a r a t A

P U P

K e r a l a

W e s

t B e n g a l

P u n

j a b

D e l

h i

All Ind ia Wt. Avg 4%


The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

that was announced in 2008 stipulated that renewable

sources must account for 7 per cent share of the

country's overall power mix by 2011-12, which would

increase by 1 per cent every year to reach 15 per cent

by 2019-20.

However, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission

(SERC) specifies targets for its respective states based

on their renewable energy potential. As observed from

the chart above, RPO targets vary widely across states.

In a few states such as Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh,

Kerala and West Bengal, the respective SERCs has

revised the non-solar RPO targets significantly

downwards in 2010-11 and 2011-12, given difficulty in

meeting their earlier target levels. We believe that

states have been flexible with their targets as therehave been no instances of imposing penalty on the

obligated entities for not meeting their RPO targets.

8.0 to 8.2 GW capacity additions expected overnext 3 yearsThe wind power industry's growth has so far been

primarily driven by small and medium enterprises

(SMEs) and individual investors availing the tax benefit

associated with accelerated depreciation. However,going ahead, the industry is likely to witness a structural

shift towards independent power producers (IPPs).

Capacity additions of total 8.0-8.2 GW are expected

over the next 3 years. The expiry of accelerated

depreciation benefit will slow down capacity additions

by SMEs in 2012-13 but is expected to pick up

thereafter. We expect IPPs to drive incremental

capacity additions. In the long term, we expect capacity

additions to rise with regulatory clarity, Renewable

Purchase Obligation (RPO) enforcement and improving

financial health of discoms.


21/26

15

expectations as coal shortage and maintenance-related shutdowns impactedthe plant availability factor (PAF). The plant load factor (PLF) too declined y-o-y due to lower plant availability and lower offtake by state power distributionutilities (state utilities). As a result, generation increased at a slower pacecompared to the increase in installed capacity. We maintain our earningsestimates though supply of coal over the next few quarters will be a keymonitorable. We maintain our fundamental grade of 5/5, indicating that itsfundamentals are excellent relative to other listed securities in India.

Coal shortage and grid restriction continue to impact PAF and PLFPAF of coal stations declined from 83.4% in Q2FY12 to 80.1% in Q2FY13.While coal receipts under fuel supply agreements (FSAs) remained stable, webelieve receipt of coal under letters of assurance (LoAs) could have beenimpacted. PLF of coal stations too declined from 78.4% in Q2FY12 to 74.9% inQ2FY13 due to lower offtake by the state utili ties. NTPC lost 4.9 BU (5.4 BU inQ2FY13) and 5.0 BU (1.9 BU in Q2FY13) of generation on account of lowerofftake and coal shortage, respectively.

Generation increased y-o-y though at a lower rate than installedcapacityCoal-based generation increased by 4.6% y-o-y (down 10.5% q-o-q) to 47.6BU on account of 11% increase in coal-based capacity. Decline in PLFresulted in generation increasing at a slower pace than installed capacity.Gas-based generation, however, declined 5.3% y-o-y (10.0% q-o-q) becauseof lower offtake of expensive power by state utilities. Overall generationincreased by 3.6% y-o-y (down 10.4% y-o-y) to 52.7 BU. The q-o-q decline ingeneration is due to seasonality.

Prior-period items resulted in a sharp y-o-y increase in reportedprofits

Operating income grew 4.4% y-o-y (1.1% q-o-q) primarily on account of highergeneration. Interest expense declined 24.4% y-o-y (39.2% q-o-q) as thecompany changed its accounting policy and will now adjust exchangedifference on foreign currency loans in the cost of related assets as against ininterest expenses. Interest income increased 11.9% y-o-y (20.3% q-o-q)primarily due to higher dividend from joint ventures. Reported PAT increased29.6% y-o-y (25.8% q-o-q) on account of prior-period items of Rs 10.9 bn (Rs5.7 in Q2FY12). Prior-period items consisted of income of Rs 10.2 bnpertaining to previous years, recognised in this quarter upon finalisation oftariff orders. Adjusted PAT increased 10.4% y-o-y (down 3.2% q-o-q) to Rs20.5 bn.Fair value maintained at Rs 214, current market price has strongupsideWe maintain our discounted cash flow-based fair value of Rs 214. At thecurrent market price of Rs 168, our valuation grade is 5/5.

KEY FORECAT - CONSOLIDATED

(Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Operating income 485,234 575,995 654,912 748,649 913,933

EBITDA 127,064 144,736 149,866 184,043 230,110

Adj Net income 82,908 93,250 95,799 105,579 126,581

Adj EPS-Rs 10.1 11.3 11.6 12.8 15.4

EPS grow th (%) 22.1 12.5 2.7 10.2 19.9

Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.1

RoCE (%) 9.6 10.4 9.2 10.5 11.9

RoE (%) 13.8 14.3 13.5 13.7 15.1

PE (x) 16.8 14.9 14.5 13.2 11.0

P/BV (x) 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 11.9 12.1 10.1 8.1

Source: Company, CRISIL Research e stim ates

CFV matrix

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

F u n

d a m e n

t a l G r a

d e

PoorFundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

S t r o n g

D o w n s

i d e

S t r o n g

U p s

i d e

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

Nifty/Sensex 5666/186364

BSE/NSE ticker NTPC

Face Value (Rs per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 8,245

Market cap (Rs bn)/(USD bn) 1393/25

Enterprise value (Rs bn)/(USD bn) 1811/33

52-w eek range (Rs) (H/L) 191/137

Beta 0.80

Free float (%) 15.5

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 3,616,064

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 609

Shareholding pattern

84.5% 84.5% 84.5% 84.5%

3.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

8.4% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7%

3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12

Promoter FII DII Others

Performance vis--vis market1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

NTPC 2% 12% 5% -3%

NIFTY 0% 12% 9% 9%

Independent Equity Research Report NTPC LtdOctober 29, 2012


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16


Customised Research Services Energy

Coverage

EnergySector

Oil and

Power Coal


Oil and Gas

Assessment opportunity for LNG, CNG, PNG, LPG, etc. Project feasibilities for bottling and distribution projects for LPG

Assessment of current pipeline infrastructure and future development Domestic demand forecasting (end user segment-wise) (Power, Fertiliser, City Gas Distribution,Petrochemicals, Refinery, Steel, etc.) and scenario analysis

Assessments of Regulatory scenario and impact analysis

Coal

Domestic demand, supply and imports forecasting (region wise) International demand & supply (covering over 60 countries), trade flow analysis and price forecasts Import

Potential demand for coal mining equipments (open cast, underground and coal washeries)

Power (Conventional and Renewable) & Allied equipments

Assessments of Regulatory scenario and impact analysis Demand forecasting and capacity addition outlook of electricity across regions/states Project feasibility across type of power project (Coal, Gas, Hydel, Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Biomass,

Cogeneration, Small Hydel projects, etc) Opportunities in power distribution via franchisee route Potential demand for power equipments in generation (Boiler turbine generator and Balance of plant) and

opportunities in T&D equipments (Cables, transformers, towers etc) Projecting financials and capacity for states through a state-wise model Business potential assessment for renewable sources as against conventional fuels


23/26

17

Media Coverage


24/26

20


NOTES


25/26

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