1. 13 June 2013Predicting and Explaining OrganisationalIntention to Adopt Complex Socio-TechnicalInnovations: A Complexity Science ApproachBrian Pinnock : PhD Research Proposal 2. 213 June 2013AGENDABackgroundLiteratureQuestionsMethodologyScheduleContribution 3. 313 June 2013Introduction and Background 4. 413 June 2013My IS Journey (So Far)Ontology: RealistEpistemology: AgnosticPost Positivist, Maybe Critical Realist, Pragmatist - PractionerPrediction: Not complete determination but surely distinct outcomes are predictable?PhilosophyMixed methods: Both quant and qual have a role to playStatistics: linearly additive causal models reached limit of what they can offerAssumptions about distributions dont match real worldAssumptions about linearity and order dont match the real worldIS ApproachReal world is complex but theories aim at parsimonyInteraction terms a grudging recognition to the actual complexity of the worldHow do we take complexity seriously and say how it might be investigated?Real worldcomplexity 5. 513 June 2013Why My Interest in Innovation Diffusion andAssimilation?DesirabilityFeasibilityViability 6. 613 June 2013SummaryDiffusion of innovationsOrganisational adoptionAdoption of complex ICT: Socio-technical systems: e.g. Unified CommunicationsArea of InterestPost-positivist: PragmatismMixed MethodsLongitudinalApproachOrganisation-Technology-Environment (OTE)Social Contagion: Institutional Theory + Fashion Theory + OI TheoryComplexity Science: CAS TheoryTheorySimulation: Agent-based modelingQualitative: InterviewsQuantitative: SurveyMethodologyFrambach and Schillewaert (2002), Fichman (2004) 7. 713 June 2013Literature Review 8. 813 June 2013TerminologyDecision to adopt or process of adoption. Sometimes primary (formal organisational)and secondary (individual) adoption are differentiatedAdoptionThe way in which an innovation or a process spreads across a population. Sometimesreferred to as learning or communication or contagion effects.DiffusionRefers to a process within organizations starting from initial awareness of theinnovation, to potentially, formal adoption and subsequent user acceptance andcontinued useAssimilationGenerally used in the context of user adoption and continued use.AcceptanceFrambach and Schillewaert (2002) 9. 913 June 2013Early Diffusion Studies: S-CurvesDiffusion of Iowa hybrid cornRyan and Gross(1943)Institutional diffusion(postage stamps, school ethicscodes)Pemberton (1936)Anthropology:Kroeber, Ratzel, Frobenius(Intercultural diffusion) Chineseporcelain, alphabetsEarly StudiesAnthropologyLate 1800sDiffusion rate of antibioticprescriptionsColeman, Katz, &Menzel(1958) 10. 1013 June 2013Rates and patterns of adoption are affected bycharacteristics of innovations and the adoptersAn idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoptionInnovationThe means by which messages get from one individual to anotherCommunication channelsThe length of time required to pass through the innovation-decision processDecision PeriodA set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem solving to accomplish a common goalSocial SystemRogers (1962)Elements of the Innovation Process 11. 1113 June 2013Wide Application across ManagementSciences (Marketing, IS etc.)Market to one group at timeMoore (1991)Thepragmatists 12. 1213 June 2013Adoption and Diffusion Studies inOrganisations is Persisting in IS ResearchBasole (2008), (Williams et al 2009)Full text search of 390 articles in highly ranked journals focused solely on adoption ofICT with firm/organisation as the unit of analysis. 66% in IS and Comp Sci Journals.Basole (2008)Search of 345 articles in 19 IS/IT Journals focused on adoption and diffusion of ICT ingeneral. 69% in IS and Comp Sci journals. 35% organisational level & 9% on SMMEWilliams et al (2009)0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%SurveyFrameworks &Mathematical ModelCase StudyInterviewSecondary DataQualitative ResearchField StudySpeculation/commentaryLibrary researchContent analysisField experimentLaboratory experiment010203040506019741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006Basole (2008)Williams et al (2009) 13. 1313 June 2013Explaining & Predicting Adoption inOrganisations is Persisting in IS PracticeVisibilityTimeLess than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsMore than 10 yearsYears to mainstream adoption:Obsolete before plateauPeak of InflatedExpectationsPlateau of ProductivitySlope ofEnlightenmentTrough ofDisillusionmentTechnologyTriggerFenn and Raskino (2008) 14. 1413 June 2013One way to measure hype:Google TrendsGoogle Trends (2013)Cloud ComputingUnified Communications 15. 1513 June 2013Technology ComplexitySocio-Technical System vs. TechnologyFichman (1992), Swanson (1994)TYPE 2:High knowledgeburden or highuser/technology inter-dependenciesTYPE 1:Low knowledgeburden or lowuser/technology inter-dependenciesIndividual OrganizationalLocus of adoptionInterdependence ofTechnology-UserSocio-TechnicalArtifactsSocio-TechnicalArtifactsTechnicalArtifactTechnicalArtifactTAM++ IDT++HighLow 16. 1613 June 2013Other Classifications of InnovationComplexityInnovationTypes IS Process Business ProcessBusinessProductBusinessIntegrationAdmin Technology Admin TechnologyIaIbII*IIIa*IIIbIIIcPrimary FocusStrong Order Effects Weak Order EffectsSwanson (1994) 17. 1713 June 20133 Stages of Organizational Diffusion &Adoption Theory in ISFichman (2004) 7 promising opportunities (many fromoutside of IS)Social contagion (specificlly institutional theory), fashiontheory, mindfulness/context, extent and impact ofadoptionEmergentBandwagons and ContextExtended by Tornatzky and Fleischer (1990) TOE modelto include environmental drivers such as competition,market uncertainty and regulationExtension of IDTTechnology-organization-environmentRates and patterns of adoption are affected bycharacteristics of both the innovation and the adopter.Characterised by multistage adoption process, S shapedcurves. (Rogers, 1983). Narrow focus on technology andorganisational factorsDominant ParadigmInnovation Diffusion TheoryPro-innovationbias andassumesrational choiceAssumeschoice issocially andpossiblyfashion driven(Jeyaraj, Rottman, and Lacity (2006) 18. 1813 June 2013The Dominant ParadigmSize & StructureInnovatorprofileKnowledge & ResourcesManagement SupportCompatibilityCompetitive EnvironmentQuantity ofAdoptionEarlinessFrequencyIntentExtentIndependent Variables Dependent VariablesFichman (2004) 19. 1913 June 2013(Some Key) Authors involved in publishing ISadoption & diffusion research (1984-2006)(Williams et al 2009) 20. 2013 June 2013Some Other Theories of Adoption used in ISLiterature Theory of Reasoned Action (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975) Innovation Diffusion Theory (E. M. Rogers, 1983) Innovation Diffusion Theory for organizations (E. Rogers, 1995) Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, 1986) Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) (Davis, 1989) Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991) Perceived Characteristics of Innovating (Moore & Benbasat, 1991), TAM2 (Venkatesh & Davis, 2000) Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology(Venkatesh, Morris, Davis, & Davis, 2003) Diffusion/Implementation Model (Kwon & Zmud, 1987) Tri-Core Model of IS Innovations (Swanson, 1994). 21. 2113 June 2013Going Beyond the Dominant ParadigmAn innovation configuration is a specific combination of factors that arecollectively sufficient to produce a particular innovation-related outcome.InnovationConfigurationsExists when organizations feel social pressure to adopt an innovation thatincreases in proportion to the extent of prior adoptions.Social ContagionManagement fashion waves are relatively transitory collectivebeliefs, disseminated by the discourse of management-knowledgeentrepreneursManagement FashionAn organization innovates mindfully to the extent that it attends to theinnovation with reasoning grounded in its own facts and specificsMindfulnessThe quality of innovation is the extent to which an organization has adoptedthe right innovation, at the right time and in the right way.Quality of InnovationPerformance impacts capture the effect an innovation has on businessprocess measures, firm level measures, and market-based measures.Performance ImpactsIntentExtentFichman (2004) 22. 2213 June 2013Organisational Primary Adoption TheoryFrameworksFrambach andSchillewaerts(2002)perspectiveTornatzky andFleischers(1990)perspectiveInstitutionalPerspective(DiMaggio &Powel, 1983)ManagementFashionPerspective(Abrahamson,1991, 1999)OrganisationalInnovativenessPerspective (OI)(Wolfe, 1994)Efficient ChoicePerspective (EC)(Tan & Fichman2002)External Factors Suppliermarketingefforts Social Network EnvironmentalInfluencesExternalenvironmentalContextMimeticpressures,Normativepressures,CoercivepressuresFashion settersPerceivedprogressivenessAdopterCharacteristicsOrganisationalcontext Organisationaldispositionalinnovativeness Leading edgestatusEconomic benefitsand adoption byend usersPerceivedInnovationCharacteristicsTechnologicalcontextPerceived internalbenefits 23. 2313 June 2013Innovating mindfully with informationtechnologyThe role of institutional pressures andorganizational culture in the firmsintention to adopt ..Best Theories Are Hybrids!(DiMaggio, 1995)Predicting intention to adoptinterorganizational linkages: aninstitutional perspectiveTeo, Wei, Benbasat (2004)Environmental and organizationaldrivers influencing the adoption ofVoIPBasaglia, Caporarello,Magni, Pennarola (2009)InstitutionalPerspectiveFashionPerspectiveOrganisationInnovativenessEfficientChoiceTechnologicalContextLocalContext(Swanson and Ramiller,2004)Liu, Wei, Kwok, Chen (2010)External Organizational Technological 24. 2413 June 20131. Adaptable Innovation2. Administrative Intensity 3. Age4. Anxiety 5. Attitudes6. BehavioralIntention7. Business Computerization 8. Buying Center Participation 9. Career Ladder13.Communication Amount 14. Communication18. Competitor Scanning 19. Complexity20.Computer Avoidance 21. Computer Experience 22. Computer Self-Efficacy 23.Consequences 24. Cost25. Culture26. Customer Interaction 27. Customer Power 28.Customer Support29. Delegation Of IT Tasks 30. Developer Involvement 31. Ease Of Use32. Education33. Elapsed Time34. End-User Characteristics 35. Environmental Complexity36. Environmental Dynamism 37. Environmental Instability 38. Evolution Level Of IS 39.Experience40. External Pressure 41. Extrinsic Motivation 42. Facilitating Conditions43.Formalization of Systems Development 44. Gender45. Government46. Hierarchical Level47. Image48. Impact On Jobs 49. Industry Type50. Influence (Coercive) 51. Influence(Peer)52. Information Intensity53. Information Sources (External) 54. Information Sources(Internal)10. Centralized Planning And Control 55. Information Sources 11. Championship12. Communicability56. Infusion57. Internal Experimentation 58. Internal Pressure 59.Intrinsic Motivation15. Communications Media Quality 60. IS Department Size 16.Compatibility 17. Competition61. IS Maturity 62. IS Planning 63. IS Slack64. IS Structure65.Job Task Difficulty 66. Job Task Variation 67. Job/Role Definition 68. Job/Role Rotation69.Learning Responsibility70. Management Risk Perception 71. Managerial Training72. MiddleManagement Support 73. Maturity74. Net Dependence75. Network Externality 76. NetworkSize 77. Observability78. Opinion Leadership 79. Org Culture 80. Org Size81. Org Structure(Centralization) 82. Org Structure (Formalization) 83. Org Structure (Integration) 84. OrgStructure (Routinization) 85. Org Structure (Specialization)90. Perceived Behavioral Control91. Perceived Benefits 92. Perceived Usefulness 93. Performance Gap94. PersonalInnovativeness 95. Playfulness96. Problem Difficulty 97. Problem Importance 98. ProcessIntegration 99. Production Scale 100. Productivity Index 101. Professionalism 102.Professionalism103. Quality Orientation 104. Quality Orientation 105. Relative Advantage106. Resources107. Response To Risk108. Result Demonstrability 109. Risk (Operational)110. Risk (Strategic) 111. Satisfaction 112. Scope 113. Sector114. Slack Resources115.Strategic Role Of IS 116. Strategy117. Subjective Norms 118. System Quality 119.Teamwork120. Technological Diversity 121. Technology Policy 122. Tenure123. TopManagement Characteristics 124. Top Management Support 125. Trialability 126. Trust127.Uncertainty128. User Involvement 129. User Participation86. Outcome Expectations(Performance) 130. User Satisfaction 87. Outcome Expectations (Personal) 88. Outsourcingpropensity131. User Support 132. User Training89. Perceived barriers 133. VerticalCoordination134. Visibility 135. VoluntarinessA review of the predictors, linkages, andbiases in IT innovation adoption researchJeyaraj, Rottman, Lacity (2006)135IndependentVariables 25. 2513 June 2013Parsimony, Co-variance, Feedback Loopsand Interaction Effects there is value insacrificingparsimony to includea richer set ofantecedents topredict adoptionPlouffe, Hulland &Vandenbosch (2001)Plouffe, Hulland & Vandenbosch (2001), Pinnock (2011) 26. 2613 June 2013Science and Complexity (Weaver, 1948)A few variables: e.g: Current, Resistance, Voltage, Population vs Time19th Century ScienceProblems ofSimplicityBillions or Trillions of variables: e.g: Laws of temperature and pressure.Science of averages.Few or weak interactions among variablesProblems ofDisorganizedComplexityModerate number of variables:Social and biological sciencesStrong non-linear interactions among variablesProblems ofOrganizedComplexityEncompasses more than one theoretical framework and is highlyinterdisciplinary, seeking the answers to some fundamental questions aboutliving, adaptable, changeable systems.Complexity Science 27. 2713 June 2013Rich History of Complexity ScienceWikipedia (2013) 28. 2813 June 2013Complexity Theory & CASDissipative structureschemistry-physics (Prigogine)Complex Adaptive Systemsevolutionary biology (Kauffman)Autopoiesis (self generation)biology/cognition (Maturana)Chaos Theory (Lorenz,Feigenbaum)Natural SciencesIncreasing ReturnsEconomics (Arthur)Social SciencesGenericcharacteristicsof complexadaptivesystemsSelf-organisationEmergenceConnectivityInterdependenceFeedbackFar from equilibriumSpace of possibilitiesCo-evolutionPath dependenceCreation of new orderTheoriesMitleton-kelly (2003), Merali & McKelvey (2006), Byrne (2001)SystemsTheory 29. 2913 June 2013Complex Adaptive BehaviourWikipedia (2013) 30. 3013 June 2013Complexity Science and ISJournal/Book Authors ThemeCommunications of theACM(Cline & Girou, 2000) Adaptable software frameworksCommunications of theACM(Augustine, Payne, Sencindiver, & Woodcock, 2005; Coutaz,Crowley, Dobson, & Garlan, 2005; Desai, 2005; Jones &Deshmukh, 2005; Nerur, Mahapatra, & Mangalaraj, 2005;Ramnath & Landsbergen, 2005; Tan, Wen, & Awad, 2005)Special issue on complexity scienceInformation Technologyand People(Benbya & McKelvey, 2006; Canessa & Riolo, 2006; Jacucci etal., 2006; Merali & McKelvey, 2006; Merali, 2006)Special issue on complexity scienceEuropean Journal ofInformation Systems(Lyytinen & Newman, 2008) Socio-technical changeIFIP InternationalFederation forInformation Processing(Vuokko & Karsten, 2007) Complexity Theory and ResearchInformation SystemsResearch(Vidgen & Wang, 2009) Co-evolving systems, complexadaptive systems and agiledevelopment21st AustralasianConference onInformation Systems(Knight & Halkett, 2010) Information Systems, systemstheory, complex systemsMIS Quarterly (Nan, 2011) Complex Adaptive Systems modelfor capturing bottom-up IT use33rd InternationalConference onInformation Systems(Kautz, 2012) ISD projects as complex adaptivesystemsComputational andMathematical(Nan, Zmud, & Yetgin, 2013) Use of CAS for modelling diffusion 31. 3113 June 2013Research Questions 32. 3213 June 2013Pragmatism and Research QuestionsKey action questions could be related to: What action isbeing performed? Who is actor? What are the results ofthe actions? What is the time-context of the action? Whatis the place-context of the actions? Who is the receiver ofthe actions? What are the intended (and unintended)effects or purposes arising from the actions?Pragmatism doesnt stop at these kinds of questions butalso requires that the fundamental action questions areaccompanied by questions specific to the researchcontext(Goldkuhl, 2004; Feilzer, 2009) 33. 3313 June 2013Research Questions: Action Questions How can ABMs improve explanation using multiple perspectives? What is the most appropriate method of arriving at agent behavioral rules (actions-actors-results-time-context-receiver) related to organizational adoption ofinnovations in a CAS model? Can a relatively simple set of agent behavioral rules generate the observations indiffusion of complex socio-technical innovations?How can CASexplain causalmechanisms inthe chosenframework? Will combining theoretical perspectives from social contagion theory usingcomplexity science approaches provide better predictive power of causalconnections to that already achieved using equilibrium-based aggregateapproaches? Can a relatively simple set of agent behavioral rules generate socially usefulpredictions for diffusion of complex socio-technical innovations?Will combiningperspectives +CAS approachimproveprediction? 34. 3413 June 2013Research Questions: Context Questions Can diffusion/adoption systems be described as CAS for complex socio-technicalinnovations (such as UC)? Is CAS-theory appropriate for going beyond the dominant paradigm for the study ofdiffusion of complex socio-technical innovations? Does a CAS approach sufficiently address (i.e. address them to the point that theybecome socially useful) the limitations of the dominant and emergent paradigms forthe study of diffusion of complex socio-technical innovations?Is CASappropriate foradoption studiesof UC? Will combining theoretical perspectives from institutional and social contagiontheory using complexity science approaches provide better or different explanatoryinsights of causal connections to that already achieved using variance-based,equilibrium-based aggregate approaches in prior studies? Who could use such insights?Is combiningperspectives +CAS appropriatefor adoptionstudies of UC? 35. 3513 June 2013Methodology 36. 3613 June 2013ResponsesExisting Data Set from 2011Dependent VariablesIndependent VariablesInstitutionalTheoryFashion TheoryEfficientChoiceAdoptionIntentionsAdoptionCharacteristics.Response 1Response 2Response 3Response 331............................Inductive QualitativeStudyDeductiveQuantitative Study 37. 3713 June 2013Existing Data Set from 2011DecisionMakers80%Influencers20%Respondents (N=331)2029667204383019148 10Respondents: Decision Makers (N=265)CEOCIOCFOIT/IS ManagerNetwork ManagerFacilities/InfrastructureManagerOther Management RoleBusiness OwnerManaging DirectorCTO0102030405060708090Industry SectorGeographic Locations 38. 3813 June 2013Research StrategyIntegratedframeworkSimulationQuantitative Survey& AnalysisQualitativeInterviews &AnalysisAgent Based ModelAnalysis ofLiterature & PriorResearchInformsEnablesInformsInformsInformsFurther validates andpossibly informsRevised Integratedframeworkis validated byNetlogo3DSmart-PLS segmentation & non-linear effectsSmart-PLS segmentation & non-linear effectsEmergent behaviour 39. 3913 June 2013Agent Based ModelingEpstein (2006) 40. 4013 June 2013Agent Behavioral RulesFrambach and Schillewaert (2002)PrimaryAdoptionSecondaryAdoption /AcceptanceOrganisationalFacilitatorsTrainingSocial PersuasionOrganisationalSupportPersonalCharacteristicsDemographicsTenureProduct ExperiencePersonal ValuesSocial UsageNetwork ExternalitiesPeer UsageAttitudeBeliefsAffectsPersonalInnovativenessBeliefsIndividualAcceptance 41. 4113 June 2013Agent Based ModelingSet up model parametervaluesCreate agentsSet up social network tiesamong agentsAllow agents to interact viabehavioral rulesRepeat n timesConduct aseries ofexperimentsAgent attributesInnovation attributesSocial network attributesEnvironment attributes 42. 4213 June 2013Potential Contribution 43. 4313 June 2013Contribution(s) A CAS-based multistage model of adoption/acceptance/diffusion for complex socio-technical innovations Reveal how ABM approaches can improve both the explanatory (and possibly) thepredictive power of a theoretical framework in diffusion research A wider more substantive definition of type II technology than Fichman (1992) orSwanson (1994) ABM offers a generative approach to explanation (Epstein 2006)Theoretical Can show how other researchers can follow a similar MM + ABM process to studyother complex socio-technical innovation adoption Quantitative analysis of non-linear phenomena could inform agent behavioral rules Can (possibly use the approach) to study non-adoption decisionsMethodological 44. 4413 June 2013Planned Research Schedule 45. 4513 June 2013Schedule 46. 4613 June 2013Conclusion 47. 13 June 2013Questions