research on climate change and its impacts in the ... on climate change and its impacts in the...
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Research on climate changeand its impactsin the Institute
of Atmospheric PhysicsRadan HUTH,
Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Jan KYSELÝ(with contributions from R.BERANOVÁ, L.POKORNÁ, M.TRNKA)
Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Prague, Czech Republic
email: [email protected]
Dept. of Climatology
• small– 5 scientists– 5 doctorands / postdocs
• research in– statistical climatology– climate variability– climate change
Our national cooperations• within projects funded by national grant agencies
– Mendel University for Agriculture and Forestry, Brno –clim. change impacts on agriculture, drought stress
– Hydrobiological Institute, České Budějovice – clim.change impacts on water reservoirs
– Institute of Hydrodynamics, Prague – clim. changeimpacts on hydrology
– Technical University, Liberec – statistical analyses– National Health Institute, Prague – climate effects on
human health, morbidity, mortality– Dept. of Meteorology, Charles University, Prague – climate
variability, scenarios– Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague – climate
variability, drought
Our international cooperations• EU-funded (FP6)
– ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based predictions ofclimate change and its impacts) – integratedproject – only a minor participation in statisticaldownscaling
– CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe ClimateChange Impact and Vulnerability Assessment) –STREP – validation of climate models, climatechange scenarios, analysis of extremes, …
• NATO– Drought as the Limiting Factor of Cereal
Production - together with National DroughtMitigation Center, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA
DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE
4.0
4.9
5.15.5
5.34.8
4.5
2.6
4.6
5.0
4.4
5.55.0 5.8
5.05.5 4.8
5.0
5.5 5.36.5
3.5
3.3
4.22.4
3.51.7
2.4
1.9
3.2
2.6
3.0
2.23.0 3.0
1.5
2.61.7
2.7
2.5 2.11.4
2.8
2.7
3.11.5
3.00.5
2.2
2.8
1.6
1.7
3.1
1.92.8
3.3
2.02.9
3.13.7
2.4 2.13.0
-1.8
-2.0
-1.0-2.9
-1.8-2.8
-2.1
-1.8
-1.6
-2.0
-2.1
-1.8-0.9
-2.4
-2.4-2.0
-2.2-1.6
-3.1 -2.5-2.7
ZIMA JARO
LÉTO PODZIM
WINTER
AUTUMNSUMMER
SPRING
SUNSHINE DURATION
1.0
0.6
1.21.4
1.6
0.7
-0.6
2.0
0.7
2.6
2.0
1.11.4
1.01.6
2.11.42.3
1.5
1.8
2.61.8
1.4
0.8
0.5
2.5
1.7
2.6
1.7
1.70.5
0.92.4
1.1 0.50.9
0.4
0.6
1.20.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
1.8
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.40.1
2.52.8
1.0 1.52.1
-1.6
-2.6
-0.9-1.5
-1.7
-2.0
-2.0
-1.3
-2.0
-1.1
-2.3
-1.9
-1.8 -0.7-1.4
-2.1-1.2-2.1
ZIMA JARO
LÉTO PODZIM
WINTER
AUTUMNSUMMER
SPRING
OVERVIEW OF ALL TRENDS
• trends normalized by the half-width ofthe 95% confidence interval zero trend = 0 statistically significant trend > 1 / < -1
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
T TX TN DTR ZW MW RH CL SUN PR PRO-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
T TX TN DTR ZW MW RH CL SUN PR PRO
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
T TX TN DTR ZW MW RH CL SUN PR PRO-2
-1
0
1
2
3
T TX TN DTR ZW MW RH CL SUN PR PRO
ZIMA JARO
LÉTO
PODZIM
WINTER SPRING
SUMMER
AUTUMN
2. CLIMATIC EFFECTS ONHUMAN MORTALITY
• heat-related mortality summer is analyzed• population of Czech Rep.• mortality
– total– cardio-vascular diseases (CVD)
• effects described by 2 approaches– classical (mortality vs. temperature)– synoptic-climatological (days classified by weather
conditions – described by temperature, humidity,cloudiness, wind,…)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
June
1
June
5
June
9
June
13
June
17
June
21
June
25
June
29
July
3
July
7
July
11
July
15
July
19
July
23
July
27
July
31
Aug
4
Aug
8
Aug
12
Aug
16
Aug
20
Aug
24
Aug
28
Dai
ly e
xces
s to
tal m
orta
lity
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
TAVG
/ H
IAVG
[°C
]
heat index (HIAVG) temperature (TAVG)
1994
Air temperature, heat index and excessmortality in summer 1994
+456 excess deaths (+10.3%) June 17-30,+598 excess deaths (+12.3%) July 24-August 8
MOTIVATION
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37
TMAX [°C]
exce
ssm
orta
lity
total mortality
CVD mortality
TRADITIONAL APPROACH
SYNOPTIC APPROACH
• all examined classifications: at least 1 offensive airmass (AM)associated with significantly enhanced mortality
+20-30 deaths daily on average (7-10% relative increase)
• offensive airmass characterized byelevated temperature – mean TMAX (TAVG) exceeds30°C (23°C) – hottest among all AMs,small cloud cover – 2-4 tenths – usually least cloudyamong all AMsrelatively strong wind, with southerly component – 2.6-3.7 m/s on average
• high humidity (dew-point temperature) not typical
k-means, 10 AMs
average-linkage, 14 AMs
-20-15-10-505
1015202530
. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 .
air mass
exce
ss m
orta
lity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
TMAX
/ Td
[°C
]
total mortality CVD mortality TMAX [°C] Td14 [°C]
-15-10-505
1015202530
. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 .
air mass
exce
ss m
orta
lity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
TMAX
/ Td
[°C
]
total mortality CVD mortality TMAX [°C] Td14 [°C]
3. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ONEXTREME PRECIPITATION
• 24 future climate runs of 10 RCMs (PRUDENCE project):horizontal resolution ~ 50 km; the only exceptions are the
high-resolution runs of HIRHAM with a 25 km gridmost RCMs driven by Hadley Centre HadAM3 GCM
• emission scenarios: SRES-A2 (B2) scenario leads to amore rapid (slower) increase in GHG concentrationscompared to the A1B scenario
• ‘peaks-over-threshold’ (POT) analysis with increasingthreshold censoring
RESULTS: SCENARIOS OF CHANGESIN 50-yr DAILY PRECIPITATION, JJA
Summer (JJA)
spatial patternsstrongly influenced byrandom samplingvariability (heavydaily amounts areoften related toconvective clouds thatmay affect relativelysmall areas)
very little coherentmixture of positiveand negativechanges appears insome RCMs
RESULTS: SCENARIOS OF CHANGESIN 50-yr DAILY PRECIPITATION, JJA
Summer (JJA)
projected changesmostly insignificant
BUT not true for thehigh-resolutionHIRHAM output:coherent areas withlarge and significantincreases in thewestern part of thearea, the meanrelative increase overthe whole area +40%
RESULTS: SCENARIOS OF CHANGESIN 50-yr DAILY PRECIPITATION, JJA
Summer (JJA)
regions of significantincreases appear in thewestern part of the area(the Elbe river basin) inseveral other model runs
they are absent in anyRCM in the eastern part(the Odra and Danuberiver basins)→ positive changes inJJA more likely in theElbe than Odra/Danuberiver basins→ may have implicationsinto decisions on floodprevention measures
RESULTS: SCENARIOS OF CHANGESIN 50-yr DAILY PRECIPITATION, DJF
Winter (DJF)
projected increasesmore uniform andgeneral compared toJJA
mean relativeincreases exceed +40%in RCAO and they areabove +20% in 14 outof the 24 future runs
BUT there are stillmodel runs in whichdecreases prevail(HadRM and ARPEGEunder B2 scenario)
RESULTS: SCENARIOS OF CHANGESIN 50-yr DAILY PRECIPITATION, DJF
Winter (DJF)
significant declinesdo not appear in anyRCM output
opposite to JJA, thecoherent areas ofsignificant positivechanges occur largelyin the eastern part(the Odra and Danuberiver basins)
the regions ofsignificant positivechanges tend to bemuch larger and morecoherent in DJFcompared to JJA
4. DROUGHT IN FUTURE CLIMATE• analysis of 7 global climate models (GCMs)• SRES-A2 emission scenario• 2 future periods
– 2031-2060– 2071-2100
• relative to “present” = 1991-2020• for variables
– temperature– precipitation– drought: Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), Z-
index
5. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THEDISTRIBUTION OF CORN BORER
(Ostrinia nubilalis)
• moth harmful to maize• simulation of its potential distribution over the
Czech territory• of its 1st and 2nd generation• based on GCM outputs; 3 reasonable
emission scenarios (low, moderate, high)