Research in the CIRES-NOAA Western Water Assessment

Mission:Improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge.

Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin

2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research

3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment

Vulnerability Assessment

SPRAT Team

Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment

Stresses:

Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)

Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use

Vulnerability Assessment

SPRAT Team

Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment

Stresses:

Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)

Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use

Responses:

New storage

Conjunctive Use

Increased Reuse

Agricultural Efficiency

Conservation

Vulnerability Assessment

SPRAT Team

Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment

Stresses:

Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)

Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use

Responses:

New storage

Conjunctive Use

Increased Reuse

Agricultural Efficiency

Conservation

Vulnerability Assessment

Goal: Improve regional capabilities toadapt to climate-related impacts.

SPRAT Team

Drought and climate change

• “The single biggest impact of the drought is how it’s changing the political environment”

– Doug Kenney, 2003

• Resource managers who were surprised by the drought are skeptical that the historical record provides an adequate proxy for future climate.

• The drought has stimulated renewed interest about potential impacts of climate change

Diversity as a problem

• Increased complexity in climate models has actually led to increased diversity in projections of climate change impacts– Third IPCC Assessment vs. Second IPCC Assessment

• The diversity in projections of future climate may not encompass the range of future climates we may encounter

• Probabilistic estimates of future climate intrinsically downplay the element of surprise

The lose-lose situation

• Most studies on the regional impacts of climate change focus on one or two climate change scenarios.

• If stakeholders use information on climate change impacts, then they may underestimate the range of future climates they may encounter.

• If stakeholders ignore information on climate change impacts, and instead rely on the historical record, then they may also underestimate the range of future climates they may encounter.

• Climate impact studies help to identify the existence of a problem, but different methods are required to identify the appropriate mix of adaptive strategies.

Shift in research priorities

• “What actions should we take, given that we cannot predict the future?”

– Lempert and Schlesinger, 2000

• Research Need: Integrated assessment of the relative merits of different management strategies that may be used to adapt to stresses that arise as a consequence of climate extremes and societal change.

• Research efforts can be facilitated through cooperative partnerships between scientists and decision-makers, where new problems are identified and addressed as they arise.

• Provides a regional representation of water issues

• Present water allocation system• Background of climate variation• Overlay scenarios of population and

land use• Explore sensitivities from perspectives

of MI, agriculture, aquatic environment• Assess effectiveness of management

options for reducing sensitivity

SPRAT…

• Baseline (2000)• Future (2040)

– Increase population (~50%)– Decrease irrigated acreage

(~10%)– Shift water rights consistent with

changes in population and land use

• Run SPRAT with 80-year hydroclimate trace

Modeling Scenarios

SPRAT Results: Central Region

SPRAT Team

Sensitivity metric—shortage index

(Supply – Demand)Demand

Risk of shortage =

Supplies = reservoir contents in October= water year inflows= water year return flows

Demands = potential water use

(<0 = water shortage)(=1 = one-year surplus)

SPRAT Results: Central Region

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992

(Su

pp

ly-D

em

an

d)

/ De

ma

nd

2000

2040

SPRAT Team

• No Action (2040 scenario)• New Storage• Conjunctive Use• Water Reuse• Increased Agricultural

Efficiency• Municipal Conservation

Response to climate-related stresses

New storage

New storage

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992

(Su

pp

ly-D

em

an

d)

/ D

em

an

d

2040

New StorageCentral Region

SPRAT Team

Decision-relevant questions

• Which sectors and regions are most sensitive to the combined impacts of climate variability and regional growth? How sensitive?

• What is the relative importance of climate-induced vulnerability when compared to other stresses?

• Which adaptations (or mix of adaptations) provide the greatest protection (i.e., reduce vulnerability).

• What is the basis for evaluating trade-offs when a coping strategy benefits one region, but has detrimental effects on another region?

Emerging and Potential Partnerships

• The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG)

• EPA• City of Westminster• Denver Metro Wastewater Reclamation District• Plum Creek Wastewater Authority• Others

• Development of a core office to build partnerships that are based, among other things, SPRAT output.

Summary: SPRAT• Integration

– Integration occurred early—the research question of regional sustainability required input from multiple disciplines

• Linkages with decision-makers– Initial contact with decision-makers to identify regional issues– Did not engage decision-makers to identify decision-relevant

research questions• Decision-makers have diverse and sometimes competing interests, and

we could not incorporate all of their concerns in a cost effective way• By restricting attention to a subset of decision-makers we may bias our

analysis and be overly constrained by their political agenda

– We relied on our collective knowledge of regional issues to develop the integrated methodology.

Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin

2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research

3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

The endangered species problem…

0

50

100

150

200

250

March April May J une J uly August September

1917-49

1950-present

c) Yampa River at Maybell

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

March April May J une J uly August September

1900-49

1950-present

c) Colorado River at Glenwood Springs

augment the natural peak with releases from reservoirs to benefit endangered fishJohn Pitlick

Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders

Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

Andrea Ray

Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders

Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

Prospecting for researchthat meets user needs

Andrea Ray

Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff

Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders

Continue developingexperimental methods

and publish results

Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

Animas River Basin (Southwest Colorado) DOWNSCALED MRF OUTPUT

ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION

Martyn Clark and Lauren Hay

Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff

Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders

Continue developingexperimental methods

and publish results

Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer

to operational products

Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado

River basin in spring 2003

Applied project: Real time experimental streamflow forecast

• Funding from CWCB• Entrained non-WWA work at CDC and USGS• Confluence of user study and several research

projects:– CDC’s MRF “reforecast,” downscaled to basin scale by WWA– Downscaled forecasts used in CBRFC hydrologic models, provided to

CBRFC since January 2003– CBRFC implementing experimental forecasts, will provide both

operational and experimental forecasts on their webpage this spring

• Reservoir manager partners agree to consider and evaluate the product; briefing conducted in March 2003

• Document and assess the process of how this information is used in their decision process

Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff

Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders

Continue developingexperimental methods

and present results

Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer

to operational products

Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado

River basin in spring 2003

Document and assess how knowledge is usedis used in reservoir operators’ decision process

as well as assess improvement of forecast

Photo: Brad Udall

Summary: User Studies and Applied Research

• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant throughout the

project• Link to operational partners occurred fairly early to

improve potential to transfer to operational products– Includes NWS Office of Hydrologic Development to

develop tools that may ultimately be used in the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

• Integration– Approach anticipated that other research projects would be

integrated as user needs were identified and refined• Next steps: Continue prospecting for other potentially useful

products and research

Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin

2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research

3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

Regional climate monitoring and prediction

• Based on critical needs from decision-makers, develop a suite of hydroclimate monitoring and prediction products that specifically address user needs.

Photo: Brad Udall

Partnership with theColorado Water Availability

(Drought) Task Force

• Regional climate monitoring

Klaus Wolter

How dry was 2002?

• Regional climate monitoring

Klaus WolterYEAR

Per

cent

of

norm

al [

71-0

0]

Arkansas Valley (CD6),1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)

CD 6.1yr%CD 6.3yr%

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

How dry was 2002?

• Regional climate monitoring

Klaus Wolter

YEAR

Per

cent

of

norm

al [

71-0

0]

San Juans, 1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)

CD 3.12CD 3.3660

80

100

120

140

160

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

• Paleo-hydro reconstructions of streamflow

• Several years in the paleo record are as dry as 2002

Connie Woodhouse

Partnership with theColorado Water Availability

(Drought) Task Force

• Experimental climate prediction

• Experimental forecast for April-June 2003

Klaus Wolter

Tailored Operational MRF for the Yampa River region

Exceedance probability

P(T>5oC)

Bias and skill for the past 30-days

Ensemble spread

http

://w

ww

.cd

c.n

oaa

.go

v/e

nse

mbl

e/

Shaleen Jain

Summary: Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant

throughout the project

• Integration– Integration with experts in other

disciplines in the Colorado Water Availability (Drought) task Force.

Research Process…

Initial Interaction

Integration andDevelopment

AdvancedInteraction

ProductDevelopment

Evaluation andTechnology Transfer

(1)

2

4

1

3

4

2

1

3

4

2

SPRATReservoir

ManagementExperimental

Monitoring

3

5

Effectiveness = use and influenceSPRAT Peak Flow Monitoring and

Prediction

Outside interest by stakeholders

DRCOG

Westminster

EPA

Reservoir operators

CWCB

Many regional stakeholders, in the CWATF

Coordination of outside research endeavors

Hydrosphere CDC

USGS

CLIMAS

NIFC

Partnerships with federal R&D agencies

EPA NWS/OHD

CBRFC

NOAA--

Climate Services

Use in operational setting

Hydrosphere CBRFC State Climatologist

Outside funding CWCB NOAA

Questions?