research article herdsmen s adaptation to climate changes and...

Hindawi Publishing CorporationAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2013 Article ID 748715 8 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552013748715

Research ArticleHerdsmenrsquos Adaptation to Climate Changes and SubsequentImpacts in the Ecologically Fragile Zone China

Yingcheng Liu1 Tao Zhang23 Xiaoli Geng1 Liansheng He4 and Zhiguo Pang56

1 Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science Hubei University Wuhan Hubei 430062 China2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China3 Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China4 State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria andRiskAssessment Chinese ResearchAcademy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES)Beijing 100012 China

5 State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin Beijing 100048 China6China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100048 China

Correspondence should be addressed to Tao Zhang zhangtsimlabgmailcom

Received 18 July 2013 Revised 10 September 2013 Accepted 17 September 2013

Academic Editor Xiangzheng Deng

Copyright copy 2013 Yingcheng Liu et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

The change of land surface can exert significant influence on the future climate changeThis study analyzed the effects of herdsmenrsquosadaptation to climate changes on the livestock breeding income and land surface dynamics with a land surface parameterizationschemeThe empirical analysis was first carried out on the impacts of the adaptation measures of herdsmen on their income in thecontext of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming (PMP)model on the basis of the household survey datain theThree-River Source Region an ecologically fragile area in Qinghai Province ChinaThen the land surface parameterizationprocess is analyzed based on the agent-basedmodel (ABM) which involves the herdsmenrsquos adaptationmeasures on climate changeand it also provides reference for the land surface change projectionThe result shows that the climate change adaptation measureswill have a positive effect on the increasing of the amount of herdsmanrsquos livestock and income aswell as future land surface dynamicsSome suggestions on the land use management were finally proposed which can provide significant reference information for theland use planning

1 Introduction

The climate change poses great threats to the human societyand natural environment [1] In order to adapt to the climatechange social agents would take some adaptation measuresthat have some synergistic effects on the dynamics of landsurface However land surface dynamics would also reacton the regional climate condition Anthropogenic adaptationmeasures on climate change and variability may directly orindirectly influence the dynamic land surface change [2]which will have feedback effects on climatic conditions [3ndash6]One of the effects of climate change on land surface dynamicsreflects on the land surface dynamics response to climatechange in the Alpine region Some human decisions cansomehow mitigate the climate change by influencing CO

2

concentration according to previous studies that were con-ducted with the empirical or numerical methods [3 4 6ndash9] while some adaptation measures will indirectly changethe climatic conditions through the intermediate impactsmainly derived from the change of land surface properties[6 10ndash12] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Third Assessment Report has updated a frameworkof interrelationship between human adaptationrsquo design andimplementation and climate change [13 14] However pre-vious studies have rarely analyzed the potential impacts ofhumanrsquos adaptation measures on land surface change whichwill result in destabilizing the climatic conditions in return[2]

There are still various difficulties in parameterizing theeffects of human adaptation measures on the climate change

2 Advances in Meteorology

for climate modelsrsquo performance through the land surfacedynamics First the current researches on the adaptationmeasures are mostly focused on the cost-benefit analysiswhile there is less concern about effects of land surface changeon climate which take adaptation measures into considera-tion [15 16] Second various views and preferences shouldbe taken into consideration when implementing the system-atic simulation for land surface during the implementationprocess of adaptation which involves the policies economysocial agents and many stakeholders [17]Third the researchobject of adaptation measures is the ecosystem that is opencomplex and full of uncertainties the knowledge about it isstill limited and therefore there are still some uncertaintiesin the implementation of adaptation measures [18] To sumup there are still a lot of difficulties in the land surfaceparameterization scheme in the climate models for examplethe parameters are complex data are difficult to capture andquantify and so forth while those are the indispensablecontents for the study of climate models

The case study in typical ecofragile regions is helpful tocomprehensively understand the importance of adaptationmeasures in land surface dynamics In this study the ThreeRiver Source Region in Qinghai Province which has a fragileecoenvironment and relatively simple industry structurewas selected as the study area The future land surface wasprojected on the basis of the herdsmenrsquos adaptation measuresto climate change An agent-based model (ABM) was devel-oped in which the adaptation measures would be consideredin land surface projection for further climate modelsrsquo perfor-mance in the ecologically fragile areas

2 Study Area

21 Basic Information TheThree River Source Region whichis the headstream of Yangtze River YellowRiver and LancangRiver is between 31 391015840ndash36 121015840N and 89 451015840ndash102 231015840E andin the southern part of Qinghai Province China It playsan important role as the ecological barrier for the ecologicalenvironment security and sustainable development of regionsin the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and YellowRiver in China as well as Southeast Asian countries In therecent 30 years the mean annual temperature is 396∘Cwith an interannual increment of 004∘C while the averageannual precipitation is 500mm with a small interannualgrowth rate of 017mm The annual average precipitationgradually decreases from east to west on a whole In additionthe frequency and intensity of climatic disasters also tendedto increase in the past decades The frequency of droughtsshowed a decreasing trend after 1961 but the duration timeof droughts has extended which exert great adverse impactson husbandry production The temperature has increasedsignificantly since 1998 and the winter snowfall and fre-quency of snow disaster have also increased Meanwhilethere is an obvious periodical change in the storm that is thestorm frequency in Qinghai Province has increased notablysince the 1990s especially in the eastern husbandry area Thegrasslands occupy the largest area in the study area reaching2665 times 10

5 km2 and accounting for about 7150 of the totalland area of the study area While the unused lands account

for 1650 the forest lands and waters account for 920 and210 respectively In the past 20 years the cultivated landsandunused lands expanded by 462and064 respectivelywhile the forest lands and grasslands have decreased by 030and 028 respectively In 2009 the population was 75 times104 with the urbanization rate reaching 1573 Among the

16 counties in the study area more than half of them arekey counties for poverty alleviation and development workwhere the poor accounted for 63 of the total populationThe animal husbandry is themain economic base for survivaland development of pastoral minorities the output value ofwhich accounts for 5728 of the total agricultural output

22 Herdsmenrsquos Adaptation to Climate Change The adapta-tion of the farming and animal husbandry to climate changehas been regarded as one of the key research spots and adap-tation measures are of great importance for mitigating theadverse effects of climate change [19]TheThree River SourceRegion is an important base for the development of animalhusbandry in China and it is very sensitive to climate changeThe local social agents have various measures to adapt to theclimate change which were preliminarily classified mainlyfrom the perspective of technology engineering manage-ment and policy on the basis of achievements of previousresearches on the adaptation measures on climate change[20] The herdsmenrsquos adaptation measures will have differenteffects the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of which is mainlyreflected by the resources endowment population climaticconditions different social agents cost-benefit and otherhidden effects that are not easy to be captured [17 21 22]

Herdsmenrsquos decision on the adaptation measures cangreatly affect the land surface dynamics [23] There may betwofold impacts of these adaptation measures on the landuse dynamics Herdsmenrsquos choice of the adaptation measureson climate change can affect their income and the changeof income will in turn affect the herdsmenrsquos choices to adaptto the different cost then it will further affect the decision-making behavior of the social agents It has been discussedhow economic benefits affect decision-making behavior ofagents in previous works with economic benefits representedwith the cost of adaptationmeasures and its potential benefitsin the ABM model [24 25] We captured the economicbenefits of climate change adaptation measures with the pos-itive mathematical programming (PMP) model In additionthis study also involved some adaptation measures that mayhave impact on land surface dynamics directly for examplethe effective artificial maintenance on grassland which canprevent the degradation from grassland to desert or evenwilderness

The adaptation measures which are the most typical andmost concerned by the herdsmen were selected from eachcategory based on the household survey (Table 1) It showsthat themajor adaptationmeasures in theThree River SourceRegionmainly include the pest control artificialmaintenanceof grassland early warningmechanism of snow disasters andfiscal subsidies which represent the impacts of adaptationmeasures from the perspective of technology engineeringextreme weather prevention and management and fiscalsubsidies respectively During the survey interview the

Advances in Meteorology 3

Table 1 Descriptions of various adaptation to climate change

Categories Adaptation Descriptions Effects

Engineeringmeasure

Artificialmaintenanceof grassland

Combining captive breeding withstocking

The captive breeding is conductive to the protection ofnatural vegetation while rescuing physicalconsumption of livestock contributes to the growth oflivestock and directly increases the benefit Meanwhilea large-scale captive breeding has the potential tochange the original pattern of land use [27]

Technicalmeasure Pest control Combining biological control and

chemical control

It is helpful to control the desertification anddegradation of grassland protect grassland resourcesmaintain the ecological balance of grassland andincrease the income of herdsmen [28]

Managementmeasure

The earlywarning

mechanismof snowdisasters

Early warning of monitoring of snowdisaster and layout of snow equipmentManagement and emergency plan ofsnow disaster

Early warning work of disaster can help farmerseffectively and make them take measures in time toreduce the loss of disasters But the setting ofmonitoring facilities and monitoring point will increasethe area of built-up land [29]

Policymeasure

Fiscalsubsidies

Subsidy policy of livestock breedingsubsidy of good seeds of artificialplanting forage seed policy of productionsubsidies subsidy policy of animalhusbandry machinery purchase andsubsidy policy of grazing prohibition fornurture

Policy measures can avoid the herdsmanrsquos blind pursuitof profit maximization which may destroy theecological balance On the premise of guaranteeing theherdsmanrsquos income the government subsidy can helpthe implication of policy and guide the farmer andherdsman to maintain the reasonable pattern of landuse [30]

herdsmen were asked about their preferences for adaptationmeasures on climate change choice probabilities and think-ingways based onwhich the behavior rules were defined [26]and lay the foundation for the land surface parameterizationscheme in the climate simulation Additionally the ABMmodel is used to simulate the effects of interaction betweendifferent social agents under particular conditions

23 Data Collection and Processing The household surveydata used in this study were obtained from the questionnairesurvey which was implemented during August and October2012 in three counties of theThreeRiver SourceRegion Firstthree counties were selected from Tibetan Autonomous Pre-fecture of Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Huang-nan and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Hainan Theselection of the sample counties was mainly based on threefactors that is per capita grassland area population densityand per capital GDP Second nine towns were selected inthe three-sample counties with stratified random samplingThen two towns with the most and least grassland area wereselected from the 9 towns and thereafter two villages wereselected in each sample town according to the employmentsituation in sectors except the animal husbandry Finally10 herdsmen families were selected as the sample familiesfrom the herdsmen families with the large medium andsmall grassland area in each sample villageThe questionnairesurvey was carried out on 200 herdsman families and theresponse rate of the questionnaires was 100 with 193 validquestionnaires and a ratio of valid questionnaire of 9650The contents of the questionnaire are as follows populationland area (mainly including the grassland area) livestockproduction sale of animal products investment into theprevention and control of the damage from rats subsidies

granted for policy considerations employment situationof sectors except animal husbandry income from animalhusbandry and so forth

In addition the supplementary data consist of the basicgeographic information data which are supported by DataCenter for Resources and Environmental Sciences ChineseAcademy of Sciences (RESDC) the data mainly include landuse data DEM data and topographic location data Thesocioeconomic data are obtained from the Qinghai StatisticalYearbook China Agriculture Yearbook and China AnimalIndustry Yearbook The natural environmental data andclimate data are collected from the meteorological stations

3 Land Surface Parameterization Scheme

31 EstimationMeasures of the Impacts of Herdsmenrsquos Adapta-tion It is necessary to quantitatively analyze the economicbenefits of the herdsmenrsquos decision-making behavior aboutadaptation measures in order to better provide referencefor the land surface parameterization scheme in the ABMmodel There are many methods for quantitative assessmentof adaptation measures and this study used the PMP modelproposed by Howitt in 1995 [31] This model is somehowa popular approach to analyze the policy oriented environ-mental and economic problems using even scarcely availableinformation The method has great flexibility and conformsto the basic hypothesis of economics of diminishingmarginalreturns and these advantages support wide application ofPMP model in policy effect analysis [32 33]

There are mainly three steps to analyze the cost andbenefit of the adaptation measures for climate change [25]First the constraint conditions were set in the linear pro-gramming model according to the observed values of the


baseline period and the dual prices (shadow prices) of theconstraint conditions were further calculated with the linearprogramming model Second the slope of the average costfunction in the objective function of the PMP model wascalculated according to the dual price of the constraint condi-tionsThird the corresponding parameters in themodel wereadjusted according to the need of the assessment of specificadaptation measures and the parameters were obtained andthen put in the objective function to obtain the optimalsolution of the nonlinear programming for the investmentinto adaptation measures

Finally in order to analyze the impacts of the adaptationmeasures on the income of herdsmen the PMP model wasestablished on the basis of the household survey data of theherdsmen families as follows The objective function is asfollows

TMG = maxsum(119901119894119910119894+ sub minus (120572

119894+120574119894

2119909119894

) )119909119894 (1)

Constraint conditions are as follows

sum119909119894times 119897119894le 119871 (2)

sum119909119894le Area (3)

sum119909119894times 119902119894le 119868 (4)

119910119894= 1205730+ 1205731dtpro + 120573

2Gld + 120573

3POP + 120573

4NPP

+ 1205735dtwater + 120573

6dtroad + 120573

7rain cv

+ 1205738temp cv + 120573

91199050+ 1205731011990510+ 12057311conrodent

+ 12057312aprotect + 120573

13supint + 120583

(5)

where TMG is the herdsmenrsquos family income from livestockbreeding 119910

119894is the number of livestock per unit area of

grassland 119909119894is the area of grasslands for the livestock 119901

119894is

the selling price of the livestock 120572119894is the cost per unit area of

grassland 120574119894is the shadow price 119897

119894is the labor input into each

livestock 119902119894is the capital income per unit area of grassland

dtpro is the distance to capital of province Gld is the areaof grassland POP is population NPP is the net primaryproduction dtwater is the distance to water area dtroad isthe distance to road rain cv is the coefficient of variance ofrain temp cv is the coefficient of variance of temperature 119905

0

is the cumulative temperature above 0∘C 11990510is the cumulative

temperature above 10∘C conrodent is the rodent controlaprotect is the manual maintenance of grasslands supint isthe grazing intensity supervision 120583 is the residual error

In the PMP model mentioned previously the objectivefunction is defined as the maximization of the income of theherdsmenrsquos family from livestock breeding for the followingreasons First these adaptation measures implemented in theecologically fragile areas aim to reduce the livestock loss ofthe herdsmen and they consequently have positive signifi-cant impacts on the income of the herdsmenrsquos family fromlivestock breeding Second there is a very low proportionof the income from crop production and other agriculturalindustries except animal husbandry in the total income of

the herdsmenrsquos family since the animal husbandry is thedominant industry in all the three counties where we dohousehold survey in the Three River Source Region Thirdthis study mainly focused on the impacts of these adaptationmeasures on the income of the herdsmenrsquos family

The income per unit area of grassland equals the productof capital income per unit area of grassland 119902

119894 and the area

of grasslands for grazing the livestock 119909119894 (2) expresses the

constraint conditions of the labor (3) expresses the constraintconditions of the grassland area that is the sum of the areaof grasslands for grazing the livestock cannot exceed the totalland area of the herdsmenrsquos family (4) is the constraint con-ditions of the capital (5) provides the number of livestock perunit area of grassland under specific condition Consideringthat in the system are mainly the herdsmen who graze thecattle and sheep and will not invest the income from othersources into animal husbandry so the upper limit of totalamount of investment into the livestock production shouldbe set as the total income from livestock

32 Parameterize the Adaptation in Land Surface Projec-tion According to different agents the parameters of maindecision-making behavior in the ABMmodel are different tosimplify and simulate the adaptive behavior choice and theinfluence of each agent on climate change Different agent hasdifferent preference for various adaptation measures result-ing in the different land surface dynamics effect Thereforethis paper classified and extracted the agents in the studyarea and then determined their preference for adaptationmeasures according to the investigation and parameterizedthem

Firstly classify the counties and cities in Three RiverSource Region into three categories according to the analysisof their social and economic development natural environ-ment characteristics and resource endowment characteris-tics then the herdsmenrsquos agents that are extracted from eachcategory mainly includes herdsmenrsquos agent half-herdsmenrsquosagent and restrictive herdsmenrsquos agent Secondly design anddetermine the rules of agentsrsquo behavior through on-the-spotinvestigation about herdsmenrsquos willingness to take climatechange adaptation measures and other social economic andecological environment consciousness combined with thecost-benefit analysis of the adaptive measurements

In addition through the survey it is found that in theThree River Source Region the output of grasslands wasrelatively higher compared with that of other land use typesThe grassland is also the main ecosystem in the study areaits ecosystem services function such as livestock pasturingwater conservation water purification climate regulation areindispensable to local individuals and communities There-fore the relative social agents aremorewilling to preserve andrestore the grassland

4 Land Surface Dynamics Response toAdaptation for Climate Change

41 Economic Analysis of Adaptation Measures This studyanalyzed the economic benefits of adaptation measures forclimate change with PMP model and explored the impacts


of different adaptation measures on the livestock productionand herdsmenrsquos income based on the different context ofclimate changeThe results show that the livestock productionand the economic benefits have a spatial heterogeneity andscale effects (Figure 1)

Livestock number and animal industry income in thesame county are correlated positively which means that ani-mal industry income would increase with the increase oflivestock number Adaptive technical measures make thelivestock number and animal income of industry relatedpositively under the high effect of temperature change ratecondition With the decrease of farm size the income incre-ment of livestock number and animal industry incomewouldbe declined gradually Thus we may deduce that the effectof the measure and the size of farm have a good positivecorrelation and adaptive measure could increase herdsmenrsquosincome but a more obvious impact on economic benefitsof large-scale pastures The implementation of nonengineer-ing adaptation measures plays 08ndash1 of the effect on theanimal husbandry income of the herdsman after estimatingbased on survey data It is also found that the impact ofnonengineering adaptation measures on income of animalhusbandry is different due to the pasture size Under thehigh effect of precipitation change condition increment oflivestock number would increase gradually with the decreaseof grassland scale in the same county However the variationof animal industry income would decrease firstly and thenincrease with the decline of grassland scale and the incomeincrement of small-scale grassland is the biggest Henceengineeringmeasuremay develop the livestock production ofthe herdsman and the income of animal industry The utilityof engineeringmeasure is related positively to grassland scalebut utility effect of water resource in small-scale grasslandwould be bigger thus engineering measure has a biggerimpact on livestock number and animal industry incomein small-scale grassland Abnormal climate may lead to thelarge-scale reduction on livestock number and animal indus-try income however herdsmanrsquos income may reduce one-third of loss under the condition of earlywarningmechanismAt the same time the riskmanagement is divided into 3 levelsand we evaluated whether they develop the management ofearly warning at the government level to adapt to climatechange using PMPmodel Simulation analysis shows that theestablishment of early warning mechanism can avoid about12 of economic loss in the large-scale grassland The lossof small-scale grassland would be the minimum comparedwith the other two kinds of grassland when analyzed fromthe scale of grassland that means that small-scale grasslandhas a good flexibility and it can adjust the scale of productiontimely to minimize the losses Government subsidy has astrong positive relationship with different scale of grasslandand income of animal industry in the same county

In conclusion the four types of adaptation measureswhich start from the character of climate impact factor in dif-ferent typical ecologically fragile areas and can analyze filedsample data as well as getting the results all can develop thelivestock number and income of industry in different degreesfrom empirical analysis of PMP model Therefore positive

adaptive measure has a positive effect on the herdsman toadapt to climate change

42 Land Surface Dynamics According to the simulationresults based on ABM model the land surface in the ThreeRiver Source Region shows some temporal and spatial char-acteristics during the next 50 years Generally the grasslandarea is increasing to a certain extent with an increment of604 and the unused land gets moderate development andutilization so the unused lands area experiences a reductionwith a rate of 1464 Besides the forest land area has somedecrease and other lands use type almost maintain the same(Figure 2)

In the next 50 years the area of changed land accountedfor 665 of the total land area which is dominated by theconversion from unused lands and forest lands to grasslandsaccounting for 299 and 181 of the total land area respec-tively Specifically as to the transformed lands 7492 offorestlands and 806 of unused lands are converted to grass-lands in contrast the increasing of grassland area mainlycomes from the forestland and unused land with 3439 and5667 respectively The dramatic changes in grassland areaare mainly because farms mainly pursue profit maximizationand focus on considering the economic benefits of landuse onthe decision-making process Grassland area would increasegradually and other land typeswould show a decreasing trendaccording to the simulation of the next 50 years It means thatthe utilization way of land by farmers and herdsmen becomessimplex gradually and dominant land use type is moreand more obvious Since single type of land will inevitablylead to the instability of ecological system farmers andherdsmen should change the traditional way for adapting thenature utilize adaptationmeasures rationally not just pursuethe revenue maximization of livestock yield and income ofanimal husbandry but fully consider the rationality of landuse pattern

The distribution of land surface change simulated byABM is showed in Figure 3 The land use change mainlyoccurred in the central and east part of the study area the eastpart was mainly dominated by the conversions from forestlands to grasslands and from grasslands to unused landswhile the central part was manifested by the developmentand utilization of unused land thus showing the conversionfrom unused lands to grasslands That is because of therestively low altitude and flat terrain in the eastern area whichare relatively easy for reclaiming of unused land and thereis restively high precipitation which is advantageous to thepasture production and livestock farming These favorablefactors make the herdsman develop animal husbandry byreclaiming forest land andunused land to increase the incomeof animal husbandry

5 Conclusions and Discussions

This study analyzed the economic benefits of the adaptationmeasures on climate change with the PMP model based onthe survey data in the Three River Source Region and thenprojected the land use change with the ABM model Thismethod may provide some reference for the research on the


00

06

12

Proportion of livestock number changeProportion of husbandry income change

Big Medium MediumSmall Big Small Big Small

Maqin Tongde ZekuMedium

(a)

00

15

30

Big Small Big Small Big Small

Maqin Tongde Zeku


Medium Medium Medium

(b)

0

8

16

Proportion of income change


Maqin Tongde ZekuMedium Medium Medium

(c)

Precautionary measures No precautionary measures


Big Small Big Small

0

minus20

minus40

MediumMedium

(d)

Figure 1 Mathematical analysis of herdsmenrsquos adaptation to climate change including the technical measures (a) engineering measures (b)government subsidies (c) and extreme weather adaptation (d) from three-level pasture scales such as large (067 km2ndash433 km2) medium(013 km2ndash067 km2) and small (001 km2ndash013 km2)

climate simulation with different underlying land surfaceThe simulation result shows that the four kinds of adaptationmeasures will have different impacts on the developmentof the animal husbandry and economic benefits Within acertain range the larger the scale of grassland is the morethe income is Therefore the scale of pastures should bemaintained at a certain appropriate range and the govern-ment should continue to promote the return of the farmlandto grassland and ecological migration projects Besides it isurgent to carry outmore research onmonitoring of ecologicalenvironment and ecosystem restoration promote the com-prehensive management of the ecological environment andcontrol the destruction of the ecological environment causedby herdsmen According to the analysis with the ABMmodelon the basis of the herdsmenrsquos adaptationmeasures to climatechange we could know that the adaptationmeasureswill havesynthetic impacts on the evolution of the underlying surfaceand promote the development and utilization of unused landand conversion to the forest lands and grasslands The grass-land increased by approximately 604 while the unused

land decreased by 1464 According to the simulation resultof the land use inThree River Source Region during the next50 years we can find that all the land use types exceptgrassland show a decreasing trend under the condition ofadaptation measures It means that the land utilization wayof farmers and herdsmen gradually becomes simplex and thepredominance of grassland is more and more obvious Thissuggests that herdsmen will ignore the rationality of land usewhen they excessively pursue the maximization of benefit

The herdsmen are the main agent of economic activitiesand the basic unit of decision-making on the adaptation toclimate change in the grazing districts the decision-makingbehaviors of which have profound impacts on the land sur-face dynamics The animal husbandry is the main economicsource in the study area and the adaptation measures onclimate change will affect the economic income of herdsmenand of the land surface dynamics since the herdsmenrsquos incomewill have effects on their decision-making on the adaptationmeasures and consequently lead to different land use changeThis study analyzed the impacts of adaptation measures on


10000

8000

2000

00 10 20 30 40 50

Cultivated

ForestGrassWaterBuilt

Unused

Num

bers

of l

and

use c

ells

Figure 2The underlying land surface structure in the next 50 yearsThe grid cell size is 2 km times 2 km

climate change but the land use classification is relativelyrough and the resolution is low and there are many otherfactors influencing the land surface dynamics therefore it isnecessary to implement some further researches in the future

Although there are some uncertainties in the result itcan still provide value reference information for the landuse management Based on the result mentioned previouslysome measures and suggestions of land use were put forwardfrom all aspects It is necessary to implement a numberof measures in the overgrazing zones for example thereasonable land use planning intensive development of landcontrol of excessive reclamation of grassland and policy ofreturning grazing land to grassland and grazing prohibi-tion Meanwhile the government should provide food andeconomic compensation to the farmers and herdsmen so asto avoid the conversion from grassland to desert and otherunfavorable land use types due to excessive degradationMeanwhile it is urgent to strengthen the prevention andcontrol of pests reduce the loss of grassland and promotethe utilization of existing grassland so as to further controlthe reclamation of grassland Moreover it is also urgent toestablish the early warning mechanism of natural disastersin view of the increased frequency and intensity of nat-ural disasters and their direct impacts on the herdsmenrsquoseconomic benefit The forest accounts for a relatively smallproportion of the total area of theThree River Source Regionhowever it provides abundant ecosystem services thereforeit is necessary to make effort to manage and protect the forestin order to guarantee the sustainable development

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Key Pro-gram for Developing Basic Science in China (Grant no2012CB955700) the National Natural Science Funds forDistinguished Young Scholar (Grant no 71225005) and

Maduo

Maqin

Xinghai

0 10050(km)

No changeCultivated land to grasslandForestry area to grassland

Grassland to forestry areaGrassland to built-up area

Grassland to cultivated land Unused area to forestry areaUnused area to cultivated land

Grassland to water area

Unused land to grassland

Grassland to unused land

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E97∘E

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E

Figure 3 The spatial pattern of land surface change in the next 50years Only large proportion of land surface change is showed in thispicture

Exploratory Forefront Project for the Strategic Science Planin IGSNRRCAS (Grant no 2012QY009)

References

[1] H O Portner and A P Farrell ldquoEcology physiology and cli-mate changerdquo Science vol 322 no 5902 pp 690ndash692 2008

[2] J Smithers and B Smit ldquoHuman adaptation to climatic variabil-ity and changerdquo Global Environmental Change vol 7 no 2 pp129ndash146 1997

[3] M Wang X Zhang and X Yan ldquoModeling the climaticeffects of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropoli-tan areardquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 113 no 3-4pp 377ndash385 2013

[4] R A Pielke Sr ldquoLand use and climate changerdquo Science vol 310no 5754 pp 1625ndash1626 2005

[5] Y Malhi J T Roberts R A Betts T J Killeen W Li and CA Nobre ldquoClimate change deforestation and the fate of theAmazonrdquo Science vol 319 no 5860 pp 169ndash172 2008

[6] J J Feddema KW Oleson G B Bonan et al ldquoThe importanceof land-cover change in simulating future climatesrdquo Science vol310 no 5754 pp 1674ndash1678 2005

[7] S M Sterling A Ducharne and J Polcher ldquoThe impact ofglobal land-cover change on the terrestrial water cyclerdquo NatureClimate Change vol 3 no 4 pp 385ndash390 2013

[8] R M Bright R Astrup and A H Stroslashmman ldquoEmpiricalmodels ofmonthly and annual albedo inmanaged boreal forestsof interior Norwayrdquo Climatic Change pp 1ndash14 2013


[9] J D Wickham T G Wade and K H Riitters ldquoEmpiricalanalysis of the influence of forest extent on annual and seasonalsurface temperatures for the continental United Statesrdquo GlobalEcology and Biogeography vol 22 no 5 pp 620ndash629 2012

[10] J Jin S Lu S Li and N L Miller ldquoImpact of land use changeon the local climate over the tibetan plateaurdquoAdvances in Mete-orology vol 2010 Article ID 837480 6 pages 2010

[11] G B Bonan ldquoEffects of land use on the climate of the UnitedStatesrdquo Climatic Change vol 37 no 3 pp 449ndash486 1997

[12] L Bounoua R Defries G J Collatz P Sellers and H KhanldquoEffects of land cover conversion on surface climaterdquo ClimaticChange vol 52 no 1-2 pp 29ndash64 2002

[13] R J T Klein R J Nicholls and N Mimura ldquoCoastal adap-tation to climate change can the IPCC Technical Guidelinesbe appliedrdquo Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for GlobalChange vol 4 no 3-4 pp 239ndash252 1999

[14] B Smit andO Pilivosova ldquoThe IPCCThirdAssessment ReportClimate Change 2001 Working Group II Impacts adaptationand vulnerabilityrdquo Adaptation to climate change in the contextof sustainable development and equity pp 877ndash912 2001 httpwwwipccchipccreportstarwg2pdfwg2TARchap18pdf

[15] R S J Tol S Fankhauser and J B Smith ldquoThe scope for adap-tation to climate change what can we learn from the impactliteraturerdquoGlobal Environmental Change vol 8 no 2 pp 109ndash123 1998

[16] K de Bruin R B Dellink A Ruijs et al ldquoAdapting to climatechange in the Netherlands an inventory of climate adaptationoptions and ranking of alternativesrdquo Climatic Change vol 95no 1-2 pp 23ndash45 2009

[17] B Smit I Burton R J T Klein and J Wandel ldquoAn anatomy ofadaptation to climate change and variabilityrdquo Climatic Changevol 45 no 1 pp 223ndash251 2000

[18] WN Adger S DessaiMGoulden et al ldquoAre there social limitsto adaptation to climate changerdquo Climatic Change vol 93 no3-4 pp 335ndash354 2009

[19] X Z Deng C H Zhao andHM Yan ldquoSystematicmodeling ofimpact of land use and land cover changes on regional climatea reviewrdquo Advance in Meteorology vol 2013 Article ID 31767811 pages 2013

[20] B Smit and M W Skinner ldquoAdaptation options in agricultureto climate change a typologyrdquo Mitigation and AdaptationStrategies for Global Change vol 7 no 1 pp 85ndash114 2002

[21] J D Scheraga and A E Grambsch ldquoRisks opportunities andadaptation to climate changerdquo Climate Research vol 10 no 1pp 85ndash95 1998

[22] D B Lobell M B Burke C Tebaldi M D Mastrandrea W PFalcon and R L Naylor ldquoPrioritizing climate change adapta-tion needs for food security in 2030rdquo Science vol 319 no 5863pp 607ndash610 2008

[23] W N Adger S Huq K Brown D Conway and M HulmeldquoAdaptation to climate change in the developingworldrdquoProgressin Development Studies vol 3 no 3 pp 179ndash195 2003

[24] J G Polhill L A Sutherland and N M Gotts ldquoUsing qual-itative evidence to enhance an agent-based modelling systemfor studying land use changerdquo Journal of Artificial Societies andSocial Simulation vol 13 no 2 10 pages 2010

[25] L R Izquierdo N M Gotts and J G Polhill ldquoCase-basedreasoning social dilemmas and a new equilibrium conceptrdquoJournal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol 7 no3 2004

[26] P M Kelly and W N Adger ldquoTheory and practice in assessingvulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptationrdquoClimatic Change vol 47 no 4 pp 325ndash352 2000

[27] S C Dong C J Chang and H Y Wang ldquoEcological crisis andcountermeasures of theThree Riversrsquo headstream regionrdquo Jour-nal of Natural Resources vol 17 no 6 pp 713ndash720 2002

[28] C A Gillies and R J Pierce ldquoSecondary poisoning of mam-malian predators during possum and rodent control opera-tions at Trounson Kauri Park Northland New Zealandrdquo NewZealand Journal of Ecology vol 23 no 2 pp 183ndash192 1999

[29] H H Einstein and R Sousa ldquoWarning systems for naturalthreatsrdquo Assessment and Management of Risk For EngineeredSystems and Geohazards vol 1 no 1 pp 3ndash20 2007

[30] S H Eriksen and K OrsquoBrien ldquoVulnerability poverty and theneed for sustainable adaptation measuresrdquo Climate Policy vol7 no 4 pp 337ndash352 2007

[31] R Howitt ldquoPositive mathematical programmingrdquo AmericanJournal of Agricultural Economics vol 77 no 2 pp 329ndash3421995

[32] R E Howitt ldquoPMP based production models-developmentand integrationrdquo in Proceedings of the European Association ofAgricultural Economists International Congress CopenhagenDenmark 2005

[33] T Heckelei W Britz and Y Zhang ldquoPositive mathematicalprogramming approachesmdashrecent developments in literatureand applied modellingrdquo Bio-Based and Applied Economics vol1 no 1 pp 109ndash124 2012

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

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OceanographyInternational Journal of


Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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Geological ResearchJournal of


Geology Advances in


for climate modelsrsquo performance through the land surfacedynamics First the current researches on the adaptationmeasures are mostly focused on the cost-benefit analysiswhile there is less concern about effects of land surface changeon climate which take adaptation measures into considera-tion [15 16] Second various views and preferences shouldbe taken into consideration when implementing the system-atic simulation for land surface during the implementationprocess of adaptation which involves the policies economysocial agents and many stakeholders [17]Third the researchobject of adaptation measures is the ecosystem that is opencomplex and full of uncertainties the knowledge about it isstill limited and therefore there are still some uncertaintiesin the implementation of adaptation measures [18] To sumup there are still a lot of difficulties in the land surfaceparameterization scheme in the climate models for examplethe parameters are complex data are difficult to capture andquantify and so forth while those are the indispensablecontents for the study of climate models

The case study in typical ecofragile regions is helpful tocomprehensively understand the importance of adaptationmeasures in land surface dynamics In this study the ThreeRiver Source Region in Qinghai Province which has a fragileecoenvironment and relatively simple industry structurewas selected as the study area The future land surface wasprojected on the basis of the herdsmenrsquos adaptation measuresto climate change An agent-based model (ABM) was devel-oped in which the adaptation measures would be consideredin land surface projection for further climate modelsrsquo perfor-mance in the ecologically fragile areas

2 Study Area

21 Basic Information TheThree River Source Region whichis the headstream of Yangtze River YellowRiver and LancangRiver is between 31 391015840ndash36 121015840N and 89 451015840ndash102 231015840E andin the southern part of Qinghai Province China It playsan important role as the ecological barrier for the ecologicalenvironment security and sustainable development of regionsin the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and YellowRiver in China as well as Southeast Asian countries In therecent 30 years the mean annual temperature is 396∘Cwith an interannual increment of 004∘C while the averageannual precipitation is 500mm with a small interannualgrowth rate of 017mm The annual average precipitationgradually decreases from east to west on a whole In additionthe frequency and intensity of climatic disasters also tendedto increase in the past decades The frequency of droughtsshowed a decreasing trend after 1961 but the duration timeof droughts has extended which exert great adverse impactson husbandry production The temperature has increasedsignificantly since 1998 and the winter snowfall and fre-quency of snow disaster have also increased Meanwhilethere is an obvious periodical change in the storm that is thestorm frequency in Qinghai Province has increased notablysince the 1990s especially in the eastern husbandry area Thegrasslands occupy the largest area in the study area reaching2665 times 10

5 km2 and accounting for about 7150 of the totalland area of the study area While the unused lands account

for 1650 the forest lands and waters account for 920 and210 respectively In the past 20 years the cultivated landsandunused lands expanded by 462and064 respectivelywhile the forest lands and grasslands have decreased by 030and 028 respectively In 2009 the population was 75 times104 with the urbanization rate reaching 1573 Among the

16 counties in the study area more than half of them arekey counties for poverty alleviation and development workwhere the poor accounted for 63 of the total populationThe animal husbandry is themain economic base for survivaland development of pastoral minorities the output value ofwhich accounts for 5728 of the total agricultural output

22 Herdsmenrsquos Adaptation to Climate Change The adapta-tion of the farming and animal husbandry to climate changehas been regarded as one of the key research spots and adap-tation measures are of great importance for mitigating theadverse effects of climate change [19]TheThree River SourceRegion is an important base for the development of animalhusbandry in China and it is very sensitive to climate changeThe local social agents have various measures to adapt to theclimate change which were preliminarily classified mainlyfrom the perspective of technology engineering manage-ment and policy on the basis of achievements of previousresearches on the adaptation measures on climate change[20] The herdsmenrsquos adaptation measures will have differenteffects the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of which is mainlyreflected by the resources endowment population climaticconditions different social agents cost-benefit and otherhidden effects that are not easy to be captured [17 21 22]

Herdsmenrsquos decision on the adaptation measures cangreatly affect the land surface dynamics [23] There may betwofold impacts of these adaptation measures on the landuse dynamics Herdsmenrsquos choice of the adaptation measureson climate change can affect their income and the changeof income will in turn affect the herdsmenrsquos choices to adaptto the different cost then it will further affect the decision-making behavior of the social agents It has been discussedhow economic benefits affect decision-making behavior ofagents in previous works with economic benefits representedwith the cost of adaptationmeasures and its potential benefitsin the ABM model [24 25] We captured the economicbenefits of climate change adaptation measures with the pos-itive mathematical programming (PMP) model In additionthis study also involved some adaptation measures that mayhave impact on land surface dynamics directly for examplethe effective artificial maintenance on grassland which canprevent the degradation from grassland to desert or evenwilderness

The adaptation measures which are the most typical andmost concerned by the herdsmen were selected from eachcategory based on the household survey (Table 1) It showsthat themajor adaptationmeasures in theThree River SourceRegionmainly include the pest control artificialmaintenanceof grassland early warningmechanism of snow disasters andfiscal subsidies which represent the impacts of adaptationmeasures from the perspective of technology engineeringextreme weather prevention and management and fiscalsubsidies respectively During the survey interview the




Engineeringmeasure





chemical control


Managementmeasure

The earlywarning




Policymeasure

Fiscalsubsidies














119894+120574119894

2119909119894

) )119909119894 (1)


sum119909119894times 119897119894le 119871 (2)

sum119909119894le Area (3)

sum119909119894times 119902119894le 119868 (4)

119910119894= 1205730+ 1205731dtpro + 120573

2Gld + 120573

3POP + 120573

4NPP

+ 1205735dtwater + 120573

6dtroad + 120573

7rain cv

+ 1205738temp cv + 120573

91199050+ 1205731011990510+ 12057311conrodent

+ 12057312aprotect + 120573

13supint + 120583

(5)




119894is






0






119894 and the area



















00

06

12




(a)

00

15

30


Maqin Tongde Zeku



(b)

0

8

16




(c)



Big Small Big Small

0

minus20

minus40

MediumMedium

(d)






10000

8000

2000

00 10 20 30 40 50

Cultivated


Unused

Num

bers

of l

and

use c

ells




Acknowledgments


Maduo

Maqin

Xinghai

0 10050(km)







101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E97∘E

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E



References












































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in




Engineeringmeasure





chemical control


Managementmeasure

The earlywarning




Policymeasure

Fiscalsubsidies














119894+120574119894

2119909119894

) )119909119894 (1)


sum119909119894times 119897119894le 119871 (2)

sum119909119894le Area (3)

sum119909119894times 119902119894le 119868 (4)

119910119894= 1205730+ 1205731dtpro + 120573

2Gld + 120573

3POP + 120573

4NPP

+ 1205735dtwater + 120573

6dtroad + 120573

7rain cv

+ 1205738temp cv + 120573

91199050+ 1205731011990510+ 12057311conrodent

+ 12057312aprotect + 120573

13supint + 120583

(5)




119894is






0






119894 and the area



















00

06

12




(a)

00

15

30


Maqin Tongde Zeku



(b)

0

8

16




(c)



Big Small Big Small

0

minus20

minus40

MediumMedium

(d)






10000

8000

2000

00 10 20 30 40 50

Cultivated


Unused

Num

bers

of l

and

use c

ells




Acknowledgments


Maduo

Maqin

Xinghai

0 10050(km)







101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E97∘E

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E



References












































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in





119894+120574119894

2119909119894

) )119909119894 (1)


sum119909119894times 119897119894le 119871 (2)

sum119909119894le Area (3)

sum119909119894times 119902119894le 119868 (4)

119910119894= 1205730+ 1205731dtpro + 120573

2Gld + 120573

3POP + 120573

4NPP

+ 1205735dtwater + 120573

6dtroad + 120573

7rain cv

+ 1205738temp cv + 120573

91199050+ 1205731011990510+ 12057311conrodent

+ 12057312aprotect + 120573

13supint + 120583

(5)




119894is






0






119894 and the area



















00

06

12




(a)

00

15

30


Maqin Tongde Zeku



(b)

0

8

16




(c)



Big Small Big Small

0

minus20

minus40

MediumMedium

(d)






10000

8000

2000

00 10 20 30 40 50

Cultivated


Unused

Num

bers

of l

and

use c

ells




Acknowledgments


Maduo

Maqin

Xinghai

0 10050(km)







101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E97∘E

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E



References












































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in












00

06

12




(a)

00

15

30


Maqin Tongde Zeku



(b)

0

8

16




(c)



Big Small Big Small

0

minus20

minus40

MediumMedium

(d)






10000

8000

2000

00 10 20 30 40 50

Cultivated


Unused

Num

bers

of l

and

use c

ells




Acknowledgments


Maduo

Maqin

Xinghai

0 10050(km)







101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E97∘E

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E



References












































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


10000

8000

2000

00 10 20 30 40 50

Cultivated


Unused

Num

bers

of l

and

use c

ells




Acknowledgments


Maduo

Maqin

Xinghai

0 10050(km)







101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E97∘E

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

36∘N

35∘N

34∘N

101∘E100

∘E99∘E98

∘E



References












































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in




































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

research article herdsmen s adaptation to climate changes and...

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