research article drought occurrence in central european mountainous … · 2019. 7. 31. ·...

Research ArticleDrought Occurrence in Central European Mountainous Region(Tatra National Park Slovakia) within the Period 1961ndash2010

Jaroslav Vido1 Tsegaye Tadesse2 Zbyšek Šustek3 Radoslav Kandriacutek1 Miriam Hanzelovaacute1

Jaroslav Škvarenina1 Jana Škvareninovaacute4 and Michael Hayes2

1Department of Natural Environment Faculty of Forestry Technical University in Zvolen TG Masaryka 24 960 53 Zvolen Slovakia2The National Drought Mitigation Centre University of Lincoln 816 Hardin Hall 3310 Holdrege Street Lincoln NE 68583-0988 USA3Institute of Zoology Slovak Academy of Sciences Dubravska cesta 9 845 06 Bratislava Slovakia4Department of Applied Ecology Faculty of Environmental Sciences Technical University in Zvolen T G Masaryka 24960 53 Zvolen Slovakia

Correspondence should be addressed to Jaroslav Vido vidotuzvosk

Received 29 May 2015 Revised 7 October 2015 Accepted 18 October 2015

Academic Editor Mohsin Hafeez

Copyright copy 2015 Jaroslav Vido et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

Drought has recently become a significant topic in the Central European region It has been observed that the drought phenomenonhas severe impacts on the agriculture hydrology social and economic sectors of lowland areasThis study focuses on how droughtdefined as a precipitation shortage occurs in higher altitudes of the Tatra National Park (TatraMts Slovakia) which is a significantbiological reserve of the Central European fauna and flora The main goals of this research include identifying drought variabilityand its characteristics over the Tatra National Park in the West Carpathians (Slovakia) especially to characterizing droughtvariability and its spatial pattern across the Tatra National Park from 1961 to 2010 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)and standard Geographic Information System (GIS) methods The results showed that frequency of drought occurrence has cyclicpattern with approximately 30-year period The spatial analyses showed that precipitation shadow of the mountains influences therisk of drought occurrence The drought-prone areas over the mountains are also identified

1 Introduction

Drought as a natural hazard resulting from precipitationdeficits causes various impacts in almost all types of ecosys-tem around the globe [1 2] The Central European regionis no exception [3ndash5] Crop yield failure in agriculturalproduction [3 6] hydrological droughts [7 8] wildfires[9 10] and bark beetle outbreaks [11 12] are only fewexamples of drought-related impacts in Central Europeanecosystems These impacts were observed during severedrought episodes that were previously relatively infrequentin the Central European region [13 14] However observedchanges in precipitation patterns in the last few decades aswell as projected changes in future imply an increase innumber of drought episodes in the area [15 16] Despite thisobserved fact there are local variabilities in the precipitationpatterns and its severity For example Skvarenina et al [17]and Fasko et al [18] have found that an increase in drought

frequency appliesmore across southern Slovakia as comparedto the northern Slovakia (includes the Tatra National Park amountainous area) where significantly increasing trends ofprecipitation amounts were observed over the past 20 years

However Niedzwiedz et al [19] argued that this trendhas a cyclic character with a period of about 30 years Inaddition the author indicated that this wet climate feature hasalready begun to subside The argument of the precipitationcyclic pattern has also been confirmed by Pekarova et al [20]based on the long-term observations of water levels on theCentral European rivers Thus this potentially anticipatedchange in precipitation patterns toward drier conditions insynergy with increasing temperature in the lower andmiddlealtitudes over the TatraNational Park [21] could consequentlyexacerbate drought severity and its impacts

Because of the controversial facts presented in the lit-erature dealing with precipitation patterns in the area ofnorthern Slovakia where the Tatra National Park is located

Hindawi Publishing CorporationAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2015 Article ID 248728 8 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552015248728

2 Advances in Meteorology

there is a more urgent need in understanding drought as apotential natural hazard and its spatial distribution featuresThis is very important because the Tatra National Park isunique by its high species diversity high number of endemicanimals (alpine marmot [Marmota marmota latirostris]Tatra chamois [Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica] Carabids [Del-tomerus tatricus Nebria tatrica]) and plants (Cerinthe glabrasubsp tatrica Primula halleri subsp platyphylla) [22ndash24] andspecific cultural landscape structures That is acknowledgedby the membership of this park in the UNESCO worldnetwork of biosphere reserves since 1993

However in assessing the drought across the TatraNational Park better understanding and consideration of thetopographic impact on precipitation are needed includingthe strong effect created over the lee ward side of the Tatramountain ridge ridges of surrounding mountains and localprecipitation shadows in particular mountain valleys Theseorographic features significantly influence spatial precipita-tion distribution that may exacerbate the drought impactsin the area [25] In addition it is necessary to consider therelatively higher precipitation amount compared to potentialevapotranspiration in the mountain areas of the NationalPark [17] For example edificator tree species in the forestecosystem such as spruce have normally more water (enoughsoil moisture) during the growing period as characterized bythe water balance method (ie precipitation minus evapo-transpiration) calculated by Skvarenina et al [17] Thereforea certain resistance level of ecosystems at higher altitudes dueto short-lasting precipitation fluctuations is expected [26]However long-lasting subnormal precipitation periods havesignificant impacts on ecosystems in the Tatra National Parksuch as weakening of tree condition [12] increase of wild firerisk [27] changes in population dynamics of climate sensitivepests [28] and depletion of groundwater in the creekswatersheds [29] that causes significant impacts on quali-tative and quantitative composition of benthic macrofauna[30] Thus better understanding of drought characteristicsover the mountainous region is helpful for managing theTatra National Park and preservation of its biodiversity Forinstance spatial information of drought prone areas couldbe used for improvement of the fire prevention plan Otherexamples of usage are detection of biotopes with lowerecological stability under drought influence because suchlocalities could be source for future outbreaks of biotic pests[11]

The main goal of this study is to characterize droughtvariability and its characteristics across the Tatra NationalPark as an integral part of Tatra Mts (Slovakia) in the period1961ndash2010

In this study the time series trend analysis of The Stan-dardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [31] for 12 months at thestations in the area of the Tatra Mts and the spatial patternsof drought episode occurrences across the Tatra NationalPark have been investigated SPI has been used because ofseveral advantages compared to other drought indices forexample the requirement of fewer input variables simplicityof calculation and comparability of droughts considering thetime and place (because the SPI is a dimensionless index) [3233] The reason to use 12-month SPI for long-term drought

Vysokeacute Tatry Mts

Niacutezke Tatry Mts

Liptovskaacute kotlina valley

Oravskaacute Magura Mts

Oravskeacute Beskydy Mts

Spišskaacute Magura Mts

Poland

Slovakia

Popradskaacute kotlina valley

0 10 15 20 25(km)

0 1000(km)

High 2654Low 182

UKRPOLDEUFRA

ESP

Elevation (m) 5

NLevo csk e Vrchy Mts

Figure 1 Geographical and geomorphological situation aroundthe Tatra Mts and Tatra National Park Solid line represents stateboundary between Slovakia and Poland Dashed line representsborder of the Tatra National Park Area with left-hatching representswindstorm calamity in 2004 Black point in the index figureindicates location of the study area in European context

assessment is based on results of Holko et al [29] who foundthat one year of precipitation deficits leads to depletion ofwater basins in the Tatra Mountains which had significantimpact on ecosystems of the National Park

2 Materials and Methods

21 The Area Specification Tatra National Park is located inthe TatraMountains (north Slovakia) the highest range in theCarpathian Mountains (the highest peak is Gerlachovsky stıtMt 2655masl) Two-thirds of the range belongs to Slovakiaand one-third to Poland Surrounding areas of mountainsconsist of the Oravske BeskydyMts (northwest) with highestpeak Babia Hora 1725m asl Oravska Magura Mts (west)reaching the height of 1394m asl at Mincol peak NızkeTatry Mts (south) with the maximum altitude at DumbierPeak (2043m asl) and Spissska MaguraMts with LevocskeVrchy Mts (east) reaching up to 1289m asl at the CiernaHora Peak The massive of the Tatra Mts is open only fromnorth to northnorthwest where a depression area is locatedmdashSubcarpathia (Poland) South of the TatraMts the LiptovskaKotlina valley is located which forms the southern borderof the Tatra National Park and foothills of the Tatra Mts(Figure 1)

The relief of the Tatra Mts was created by glacial activityin the last ice age [35] Subspecies endemic to the TatraMts (eg Alpine marmot [Marmota marmota latirostris]and Tatra chamois [Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica] Carabids[Deltomerus tatricus Nebria tatrica]) also date back to thisera Area of this unique species is located mostly over 1500masl

Geomorphologically the mountains are divided into theWest (Zapadne Tatry) and East Tatra Mts (Vychodne Tatry)West Tatra Mountains are lower (highest peak is Bystra

Advances in Meteorology 3

Table 1 Meteorological stations used in this study with their selected parameters

Station ID number North 120593 East 120582 Altitude()

Precipitation(mmyear)lowastlowast

Potential ET(mmyear)lowastlowastlowast Time period

Cerveny Klastor 1 49∘ 231015840 20∘ 251015840 463 792 500 1961ndash2010Lipt Mikulaslowast 2 49∘ 051015840 19∘ 361015840 569 657 550 1961ndash2007Podolınec 3 49∘ 151015840 20∘ 321015840 573 720 525 1961ndash2010Liptovsky Hradok 4 49∘ 21015840 19∘ 431015840 640 696 525 1961ndash2010Lieseklowast 5 49∘ 211015840 19∘ 401015840 692 811 425 1961ndash2007Poprad 6 49∘ 41015840 20∘ 141015840 694 599 575 1961ndash2010Habovkalowast 7 49∘ 161015840 19∘ 361015840 745 936 425 1980ndash2002Huty 8 49∘ 81015840 19∘ 331015840 808 918 375 1961ndash2010Tatranska Lomnica 9 49∘ 91015840 20∘ 171015840 827 797 475 1961ndash2010Podspady 10 49∘ 161015840 20∘ 101015840 913 1166 375 1961ndash2010Podbanske 11 49∘ 81015840 19∘ 541015840 972 959 475 1961ndash2010Tatranska Javorina 12 49∘ 151015840 20∘ 81015840 1007 1305 375 1961ndash2010Stary Smokoveclowast 13 49∘ 81015840 20∘ 131015840 1010 857 475 1961ndash1990Hrebienoklowast 14 49∘ 91015840 20∘ 131015840 1270 1024 425 1961ndash1990Strbske Pleso 15 49∘ 71015840 20∘ 41015840 1354 1026 425 1961ndash2010Skalnate Pleso 16 49∘ 111015840 20∘ 141015840 1778 1351 375 1961ndash2010Lomnicky Stıt 17 49∘ 111015840 20∘ 121015840 2635 1498 325 1961ndash2010lowastStation without calculated trend analysis lowastlowastAverage precipitation amount calculated within the time period lowastlowastlowastPotential evapotranspiration totals calculatedby Tomlain (2002) [34]

2248m asl) than East Tatra Mts with the highest peakGerlachovsky stıt (2655masl)TheEast TatraMts consist ofthe Vysoke TatryMts and Belianske TatryMtsThe southeastregion of the study area was impacted by windstormsespecially in 2004 (Figure 1)

211 Climate of the Tatra Mountains Geomorphology of theMountains and surrounding areas influences the prevailingwinds in the area [36] Prevailing winds on the peak station(Lomnicky Stıt Peak 2655m asl the second highest peakin the Tatra Mountains) blow from the north and northwestsector as well as on the lowland station Cerveny Klastor(463m asl) located northeast of the mountains beyondthe lee effect of the Tatra Mountains massive (Figure 2) Incontrast a predominantly west wind direction is measured atstations located south of the mountains (Poprad 694m aslor Liptovsky Hradok 640m asl)

Precipitation amounts in the area vary from the599mmyear at the station Poprad in the Popradska kotlinavalley to the maximum at the Lomnicky stıt peak (2635masl) with 1498mmyear (Table 1) However the effect ofthe mountain lee is visible in the precipitation amountsWhile the precipitation amount at the lowest station CervenyKlastor (463m asl) situated northeasterly of the mountainridge is 792mmyear the stations Liptovsky Mikulas (569masl) and Liptovsky Hradok (640m asl) situated in theLiptovska kotlina valley southerly of the mountain ridge varyfrom 657 to 696mmyear Localization of the mentionedstations is depicted in the Figure 2 The same effect isvisible also at the station Poprad (694m asl) located in thePopradska kotlina valley southeast of the mountain ridge

7

5

3

2

8

4

1

9

6

171413

10

11

16

15

Poland

Slovakia

Habovka

Liptovskyacute Mikulaacuteš

Vysokeacute Tatry

0 9 12 15(km)63

N

Figure 2 Localization of the used meteorological stations isdepicted by triangles with number Number near triangle corre-sponds to ID number of the station from Table 1 Circles representgrid points used in the GIS spatial analyses Dashed line representsborder of the Tatra National Park Solid line depicts nationalboundary

Potential evapotranspiration at all the stations around theTatra Mountains ranges from 325mm at the Lomnicky stıtpeak (2635m asl) to 550mm per year at the Poprad stationin the Popradska kotlina valley (694m asl) [34] As shownin the Table 1 at all the stations the potential evapotranspi-ration is lower than precipitation totals However we seethat at the stations situated southerly of the mountain ridge


(leeward) in the Popradska kotlina and Liptovska kotlinavalleys (eg LiptovskyMikulas and Poprad) the precipitationsurplus is relatively low (eg at the station Poprad 24mmandat the station Liptovsky Mikulas 107mm)

22 Methods of Drought Analyses

221 The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) The Stan-dardized Precipitation Index [31] is drought index calculatedon the basis of the probability of the occurrence of certainamount of precipitation in given time periodThe calculationrequires a long-term monthly precipitation database with 30years or more of data The probability distribution functionis derived from the long-term record by fitting a gammafunction to the data The cumulative distribution is thentransformed using equal probability to a normal distributionwith a mean of zero and standard deviation of one so thevalues of the SPI are really in standard deviations [37] Entiremathematical descriptions of the principles and calculation ofthe SPI are given in [37] Positive SPI values indicate greaterthan median precipitation while negative SPI values indicateless than median precipitation The magnitude of departurefrom zero represents probability of occurrence so decisionscan be made based on this SPI value Thus SPI values of lessthan minus10 occur 16 times in 100 years an SPI of less than minus20occurs two to three times in 100 years and an SPI of less thanminus30 occurs once in approximately 200 years The SPI can becalculated for a variety of timescales This allows the SPI tomonitor short-termwater supplies (such as soilmoisture) andlonger-term water resources such as groundwater supplies orlake levels [38]

222 Data Inputs for indices are monthly precipitationtotals from 17 meteorological stations (Table 1) of the SlovakHydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) in the period 1961ndash2010 situated in the area of the Tatra National Park Precipita-tion data for stations with the shorter period (ie Habovka1980ndash2002 Stary Smokovec Hrebienok 1961ndash1990 Liesek1961ndash2007 and Liptovsky Mikulas 1961ndash2007) were used assupplementary stations for spatial model improvement Forthese stations long-term trend analyses were not preparedbecause of a shorter time period which could have an impacton the SPI parameters

223 Data Processing in SPI Analyses Since all the data setsof the calculated SPI were normally distributed (normalitywas tested using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) linear functionand Studentrsquos t-test for trend analyses have been appliedaccording to Yue and Pilon [39] Trend analyses using lineartrend were made for each station separately except thosestations with shorter observation periods as mentioned inTable 1 Trends were tested on significance by Studentrsquos t-test on the significance level 120572 = 005 This process hasbeen carried out in order to get information of altitudinalvariability of drought trends in the period 1961ndash2010

To characterize the general overview of drought occur-rence over the study region an average SPI based on thestations SPI values (from Table 1) was constructed In allthe analyses in this paper the 12-month SPI was used to

evaluate a severe drought episodes in the area The reasonto use 12-month SPI for long-term drought assessment (asmentioned in introduction) is based on results of Holko et al[29] who found that one year of precipitation deficits leadsto depletion of water basins in the Tatra Mountains whichhad significant impact on ecosystems of the National Park Inorder to obtain information about alternation between wetand dry long-term episodes curvilinear regression (fourth-order polynomial) has been constructed The reason is thatthe curvilinear regression depicts periods or specific cycles(alternation between dry and wet episodes) more illustra-tively compared to another regression function (eg linearmoving average) as mentioned by Gulrado and Bermudez[40]

224 Data Processing in Spatial Evaluations To identify thegeospatial pattern and distribution of drought within theseasons 12-month SPI values were used and interpolatedusing the following GIS techniques based on the spatialaverage of two (modeled and observed) layers

The first layer contains the spatial information of droughtconditions provided by nodes (grid points) with appropriateSPI values Here the SPI was calculated with precipitationdata obtained by approximation between precipitation andaltitudeThe challenge was to find the best fit function able toidentify the trend and effectively approximate the relationshipbetween precipitation and altitude However we used thesimple linear function to estimate the precipitation valuesThe results showed a strong correlation (ie R2 = 06977with 120572 = 001) Finally the estimated values were plotted andinterpolated using SPLINE function in GIS Figure 2 showsthe net of 220 nodes (grid points) used in GIS processing

The second layer was obtained by spatial interpolationof the SPI station based data obtained by the meteorologicalstations around the Tatra Mountains (Figure 2 and Table 1)The spatial interpolation of the second layer was carried outusing the SPLINE interpolation function

Finally the spatial average of the first and the second layerwas processed (using raster calculator) and used as a droughtspatial distribution model for the Tatra Mountains

The spatial model was evaluated by comparing theobserved and modeled precipitation totals for three differentprecipitation scenarios above average below average andaverage precipitation To represent these three scenarios2010 2003 and 1997 were selected Correlation of precipita-tion totals obtained using selected modeled grid points withthe nearest totalizer rain gauge showed statistical significanceevaluated by Pearson correlation ranging from 09583 to09859 The spatial model and all trend analysis have beentested and approved using t-test at the significance level 120572 =005

3 Results and Discussion

31 General Overview of a Drought Occurrence in the TatraMountains Region Niedzwiedz et al [41] Labudova et al[42] Buntgen et al [4] and Koncek et al [25] indicatedthat the long-term variations in precipitation regime aroundthe Tatra Mountains mostly depends on the atmospheric


1961

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2006

2008

2010

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

SPI

Figure 3 Average 12-month SPI for the TatraMountains regionThetrend line is constructed by the curvilinear regression (fourth-orderpolynomial)

circulation especially bywesterly zonal circulation because ofthe mountainsrsquo orientation along a zonal air flow Thereforeto understand the general conditions and occurrence ofsevere droughts over the region we have used the aver-age precipitation time-series pattern based on all stationdata (Table 1) except stations with shorter observations (ieHabovka Stary Smokovec Hrebienok Liesek and LiptovskyMikulas) Figure 3 shows this temporal distribution of pre-cipitation variations from 1961 to 2010 using the SPI for 12months The figure shows the occurrences of all droughtepisodes (negative values) during the 1961ndash2010 periodThussix severe drought episodes (SPI le minus15) using the 12-monthSPI are identified The 12-month SPI values indicated thatan extreme drought episode was observed in the periodfrom 1963 to 1965 which was the most intense droughtduring the record Exceptional dry periods with frequentoccurrences of drought situations persisted in 1962ndash19641967ndash1969 1971ndash1974 1977ndash1980 1982ndash1985 1986ndash1989 and2003 over the Tatra Mountains A particularly long-lastingdry period also occurred from 1990 to 1995 These detectedepisodes correlate with results of Demeterova and Skoda[8] The authors describe that hydrological drought over thestudy area persisted in 1963 1972ndash1974 1976 1978 1982ndash1985 1987ndash1994 and 2003 An increase in wet episodes after1995 (except pan-European drought of 2003) corresponds toresults explained by Buntgen et al [4] and Lapin and Fasko[43] that the precipitation totals in the study area are mostlydriven by westernnorthwestern zonal air flow Niedzwiedz etal [19] and Lapin and Tomlain [44] imply that the significantincrease of the west cyclonal situation was recorded in thisarea after the first half of the 1990s This correlates withan increase in wet situations shown by the SPI after 1993However Niedzwiedz et al [19] and Lapin and Fasko [43]indicated that these changes in circulation patterns are cyclicwith an approximately 30-year period

Our findings (based on approximate estimation of inflec-tion points in the polynomial trend of the SPI) also showedthat periodicity Actually inflection points of the polynomialtrend were detected in 1968 and 1998 (ie 29-year period)This result corresponds also with Pekarova et al [20] whichimply the same frequency based on analyzed long-termwaterlevels of the central European rivers Based on this we arguethat the current ldquowet periodrdquo started fromearly nineties could

Table 2 Correlation coefficients of the SPI trends at the stationsaround the TatraMountains in context of altitude in the period 1961ndash2010

Station Altitude(m asl)

Coefficient of correlation1198772

Cerveny Klastor 463 02099Podolınec 573 00136Liptovsky Hradok 640 00319Poprad 694 00292Huty 808 00314Tatranska Lomnica 827 00108Podspady 913 01744Podbanske 972 00604Tatranska Javorina 1007 01991Strbske pleso 1354 01356Skalnate pleso 1778 01234Lomnicky stıt 2635 04720Marked in bold indicates a statistically significant trend at the level ofsignificance 120572 = 005

be interrupted by a dry period in the future decade Thisargument should be taken in the account in the NationalPark management plan for future decades In addition withthe observed and anticipated regional temperature increase[15 21] the drought severity could be worse in the future

32 Time Series Trend Analysis of SPI for 12 Months at theStations in the Area of the Tatra Mountains Analysis ofthe time series showed an increase in the number of wetepisodes of SPI at all stations analyzed after 1995 Howeverthis increasing trend is not significant (at the significancelevel 120572 = 005) for the stations located at lower altitudesthat is Podolınec Liptovsky Hradok Poprad Huty andTatranska Lomnica except for one station Cerveny Klastor(Table 2) This station is situated over the northeastern TatraMountains where it is beyond the influence of rain shadowStatistically trends towardwet conditions over the higher alti-tudes over 900m asl (ie Podspady Podbanske TatranskaJavorina Strbske Pleso Skalnate Pleso and Lomnicky stıt)were found significant at the significance level 120572 = 005(Table 2)Thus it seems that the habitats of the Tatra NationalPark including habitats of periglacial relict species are inldquorelatively drought-safer altitudinal zonerdquo because the corearea of the biosphere reserve where habitats of this uniquespecies are located starts at 1500m asl [22ndash24] Howeverdue to a relatively low precipitation surplus on stations inlower altitudes what was shown in Table 1 and due to sug-gested cyclicity of the ldquowetrdquo and ldquodryrdquo periods in combinationwith observed temperature increase in Tatra Mountains [21]drought risk could increase in the future especially duringthe prolonged drought episodes This potential risk (basedon ecological analyses) was outlined in results of Bitusık andKoppova [30] Konopka and Konopka [12] and Hlasny andTurcani [28] We have to consider that this could cause apotential ecological pressure for example by spreading of


0 9 12 15(km)


Habovka Poland

Vysokeacute Tatry

Number of drought episodes valueHigh 16Low 10

63

N

Figure 4 Number of all drought situations according to the 12-month SPI Red color represents higher frequency of drought sit-uations Dashed line represents border of the National Park Squarerepresents city or settlement Area with left-hatching representscalamity in 2004

lowland xerophilous species to habitats of middle altitudes(buffer zones and transition areas of the park) because of theirbetter adaptation to dry climatic conditions in contrast tomountain or even alpine stenobionts as shown in Sustek andVido [45]

33 Spatial Patterns of Drought Episode Occurrences acrossthe Tatra National Park In general precipitation totals relateproportionally to altitude [46] However Koncek et al [25]argued that the orographic diversity of the Tatra Mountainsmodifies this dependence by local precipitation shadowsThis fact could have a significant impact on precipitationtotals and therefore number of drought situations in the leeward areas Spatial projection of areas with similar numberof drought episodes (using the 12-month SPI) identifies apotential drought prone areas These locations could beaffected more often in contrast to other areas especially dur-ing the prolonged episodes with precipitation deficit Spatialprojection of the 12-month SPI depicts the prevalence ofpotentially severe drought episodes because of the previouslymentioned impact of long-lasting precipitation deficits onwater depletion in this area [29]

Figure 4 illustrates that the area with higher frequency ofdrought episodes can be divided into three main drought-prone subareas The first is situated in west and northwest ofthe Tatra National Park This area is influenced by precipi-tation shadow of the Oravska Magura and Oravske BeskydyMountains located northwest of the Tatra National Park

The second main drought-prone area is located on thelee side of the main mountain ridge of High Tatra eastof the Tatranska Kotlina village to Vysne Hagy settlementSecondary maximums of drought episode prevalence arerecorded in the area of the valleys Jamnicka dolina Bystradolina and Rackova dolina in the West Tatra Mountainsaround the mouth of the valleys Ticha dolina and Koprovadolina near the Podbanske village and in the valleys Zadne

Medrsquoodoly Predne Medrsquoodoly Cierna javorova dolina andKolova dolina in the High Tatra In contrast locations withthe lowest number of drought episodes are located outsideof the influence of the rain shadow of the Tatra Mountainscomplex around the northeast headland of the mountainsnear meteorological station Cerveny Klastor

Finally the third area is the Popradska kotlina valleysoutheast of the Tatra National Park This area correspondswith the rain shadow in the Popradska kotlina and Spisskakotlina valleys which is also noted by Koncek et al [25]

The most endangered (drought-prone) areas defined bynumber of drought episodes correspond in particular withthe area of the massive windstorm of 2004 (spatial overlapreached 46) This huge wind damage caused devastation ofthe spruce forests in the area [47] Thus the ecosystems arein the process of secondary succession Ecosystems in earlysuccession stages in the area could be therefore more affectedby drought because of their lower resistance level to naturaldisturbances [48]

These facts imply a potential of drought risk for theforest ecosystem during its succession process Moreover insynergy with the predicted temperature (evapotranspiration)increase at the middle altitudes [15 21] and possible declineof ldquowet situationsrdquo in the following decades (because ofthe mentioned multidecadal cycle) [19 20 39] could bedrought impact on this ecosystem worse in the future Sothe restoration of the forests could be unpredictable andincalculable Signals of such an ecological behavior wereindicated by Sustek and Vido [45] (2013) in the structure ofthe sensitive ground beetle communities after the relativelyhot and dry summer 2007 in the Tatra National Park

4 Conclusions

This study showed that occurrence of drought has cyclicpattern with approximately 30-year period Almost all yearsin the last two decades were relatively ldquowetrdquo except the 2003which was short but severe drought Because of this cyclicpattern of precipitation regime over the Tatra Mountainswe expect ldquodryrdquo period with numerous drought episodes insubsequent decades However in this study it was found thatcore areas of the biosphere reserve of the Tatra National Parkinhabited by the unique species (altitudes over 1500m asl)are in relatively ldquodrought-safer altitudinal zonerdquo based onSPI station based trend analyses Unfortunately ecosystemsof lower altitudes (up to 900m asl) could be impactedby drought in anticipated dry period due to presented lowprecipitation surplus and low significance of the SPI trendrespectively

The SPI spatial analyses result in the fact that the occur-rence of drought episodes is influenced by the precipitationshadow of the Tatra Mts range and surrounding mountainssituated north and to northwest of the Tatra Mts Thus theoccurrence of drought is more likely at the south and south-east regions of the mountains than at the northnortheastwindward part of the Tatra Mountains In addition anotherdrought prone area was also indicated in the West Tatra MtsThis area is influenced by the Oravske Beskydy and OravskaMagura Mts located to the northwest


On the other hand the south and southeast part of theNational Park was influenced by a severe windstorm in 2004From the ecological point of view it is interesting that the areaof the windstorm spatially correlates with identified drought-prone areas (spatial overlap is 46) Therefore ecosystemrestoration in this area could be affected by potential droughtepisodes in the future We recommend that above presentedinformation should be taken into account by decisionmakersresponsible for forest restoration management within thataffected area

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interestsregarding the publication of this paper

Acknowledgments

This contribution was supported by research grants of TheMinistry of Education Science Research and Sport of theSlovak Republic VEGA nos 2010114 1046314 1058915and by grant of the SlovakResearch andDevelopmentAgencyno APVV-0480-12 and no APVV-0303-11

References

[1] S M Vicente-Serrano C Gouveia J J Camarero et alldquoResponse of vegetation to drought time-scales across globalland biomesrdquo Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the United States of America vol 110 no 1 pp 52ndash57 2013

[2] C D Allen A K Macalady H Chenchouni et al ldquoA globaloverview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality revealsemerging climate change risks for forestsrdquo Forest Ecology andManagement vol 259 no 4 pp 660ndash684 2010

[3] M Trnka R P Rotter M Ruiz-Ramos et al ldquoAdverse weatherconditions for European wheat production will become morefrequent with climate changerdquo Nature Climate Change vol 4no 7 pp 637ndash643 2014

[4] U Buntgen R Brazdil D Frank and J Esper ldquoThree centuriesof Slovakian drought dynamicsrdquo Climate Dynamics vol 35 no2 pp 315ndash329 2010

[5] P Ciais M Reichstein N Viovy et al ldquoEurope-wide reductionin primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in2003rdquo Nature vol 437 no 7058 pp 529ndash533 2005

[6] P HlavinkaM Trnka D SemeradovaMDubrovsky Z Zaludand M Mozny ldquoEffect of drought on yield variability of keycrops in Czech Republicrdquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorologyvol 149 no 3-4 pp 431ndash442 2009

[7] J Poorova L Blaskovicova P Skoda and V Simor ldquoTrends ofminimum annual and monthly flows in Slovakiardquo in ZbornıkAbstraktov Odborny Seminar Sucho a Jak mu Celit pp 20ndash23Praha Slovakia 2013

[8] B Demeterova and P Skoda ldquoLow flow in selected streams ofSlovakiardquo Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics vol 57 no1 pp 55ndash69 2009

[9] A H Fink T Brucher A Kruger G C Leckebusch J G Pintoand U Ulbrich ldquoThe 2003 European summer heatwaves anddrought-synoptic diagnosis and impactsrdquo Weather vol 59 no8 pp 209ndash216 2003

[10] J Skvarenina J Mindrsquoas J Holecy and J Tucek ldquoAnalysis of thenatural and meteorological conditions during two largest forestfire events in the Slovak Paradise National Parkrdquo in Proceedingsof the International Bioclimatological Workshop p 11 BratislavaSlovakia September 2003

[11] M J Klapwijk M P Ayres A Battisti and S Larsson ldquoAssess-ing the impact of climate change on outbreak potentialrdquo inInsect Outbreaks Revisited pp 429ndash450 Blackwell PublishingOxford UK 2012

[12] J Konopka and B Konopka ldquoInfluence of main kinds of abioticharmful agents on forest ecosystems research and practicerdquoReports of Forestry Research vol 47 no 1 p 40 2002

[13] M Trnka J Kylsely M Mozny and M Dubrovsky ldquoChangesin Central European soil moisture availability and circulationpatterns in 1881ndash2005rdquo International Journal of Climatology vol29 no 5 pp 655ndash672 2009

[14] B Lloyd-Hughes and M A Saunders ldquoA drought climatologyfor Europerdquo International Journal of Climatology vol 22 no 13pp 1571ndash1592 2002

[15] M LapinM Gera J HrvoLrsquo MMelo and J Tomlain ldquoPossibleimpacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle in Slovakia andresults of observations in 1951ndash2007rdquo Biologia vol 64 no 3 pp454ndash459 2009

[16] M Lapin and M Melo ldquoMethods of climate change scenariosprojection in Slovakia and selected resultsrdquo Journal of Hydrologyand Hydromechanics vol 52 no 4 pp 224ndash238 2004

[17] J Skvarenina J Tomlain J Hrvol J Skvareninova and PNejedlık ldquoProgress in dryness and wetness parameters inaltitudinal vegetation stages of West Carpathians time-seriesanalysis 1951ndash2007rdquo Idojaras vol 113 no 1-2 pp 47ndash54 2009

[18] P FaskoM Lapin and J Pecho ldquo20-Year extraordinary climaticperiod in Slovakiardquo Meteorologicky Casopis vol 11 pp 99ndash1052008

[19] T Niedzwiedz R Twardosz and A Walanus ldquoLong-term vari-ability of precipitation series in east central Europe in relation tocirculation patternsrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatology vol98 no 3-4 pp 337ndash350 2009

[20] P Pekarova P Miklanek and J Pekar ldquoLong-term trends andrunoff fluctuations of European riversrdquo in Climate Variabilityand Change Hydrological Impacts Proceedings of the FifthFRIEND World Conference held at Havana Cuba vol 308 pp520ndash525 IAHS Publication 2006

[21] A Pribullova M Chmelık and J Pecho ldquoAir temperaturevariability in the high tatra mountainsrdquo in The CarpathiansIntegrating Nature and Society Towards Sustainability Environ-mental Science and Engineering pp 111ndash130 Springer BerlinGermany 2013

[22] L Vlcek ldquoGeographical distribution of chamois (Rupicaprarupicapra L) in the Western Carpathians territory during thelast Glacial and theHolocenerdquoActa Carsologica Slovaca vol 48no 1 pp 83ndash98 2010

[23] P Backor ldquoCurrent distribution of the Alpine Marmot (Mar-mota marmota) in the Nızke Tatry Mts Slovakia (RodentiaSciuridae)rdquo Lynx Series Nova vol 40 no 1 pp 5ndash13 2009

[24] J Kliment ldquoThoughts on recent phytogeographical regionali-sation of Slovakia (notes to selected phytochorions)rdquo BulletinSlovenskej Botanickej Spolocnosti vol 25 pp 199ndash224 2003

[25] M Koncek I Bohus V Briedon et al Climate of the TatraMountains Veda Bratislava Veda Bratislava Slovakia 1974

[26] M Dubrovsky M D Svoboda M Trnka et al ldquoApplicationof relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts


on drought conditions in Czechiardquo Theoretical and AppliedClimatology vol 96 no 1-2 pp 155ndash171 2009

[27] SLS Climate of the High Tatra Mountains Scientia TatranskaLomnica Slovakia 2009

[28] T Hlasny and M Turcani ldquoInsect pests as climate changedriven disturbances in forest ecosystemsrdquo in Bioclimatologyand Natural Hazards pp 165ndash177 Springer Dordrecht TheNetherlands 2009

[29] L Holko M Dosa and P Skoda ldquoDepletion curves andhydrological reaction of mountain river basinsrdquo in HydrologieMaleho Povodı K Brych and M Tesar Eds pp 125ndash131 Ustavpro Hydrodynamiku AVCR amp CHMI Praha Slovakia 2014

[30] P Bitusık and K Koppova ldquoMacrozoobenthos of the glaciallakes in the Low Tatras (West Carpathians)rdquo Biologia vol 52no 2 pp 227ndash232 1997

[31] T B McKee J N Doeksen and J Kleist ldquoThe relationship ofdrought frequency and duration to time scalesrdquo in Proceedingsof the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology pp 179ndash184American Meteorological Society Anaheim Calif USA 1993

[32] Y He J Ye and X Yang ldquoAnalysis of the spatio-temporalpatterns of dry andwet conditions in theHuai River Basin usingthe standardized precipitation indexrdquo Atmospheric Researchvol 166 pp 120ndash128 2015

[33] J Bazrafshan S Hejabi and J Rahimi ldquoDrought monitor-ing using the multivariate standardized precipitation index(MSPI)rdquoWater Resources Management vol 28 no 4 pp 1045ndash1060 2014

[34] J Tomlain ldquoMean annual actual and potential evapotranspi-ration totalsrdquo in Landscape Atlas of the Slovak Republic p96 Ministerstvo Zivotneho Prostredia Slovenskej RepublikySlovenska Agentura Zivotneho Prostredia Bratislava Slovakia2002

[35] MMisıkGeological Excursions Around Slovakia vol 276 SPNBratislava Slovakia 1979

[36] M Lapin and M Tekusova ldquoWind speed and directionexposure of territory to inversionrdquo in Landscape Atlas of theSlovak Republic p 100 Ministerstvo Zivotneho ProstrediaSlovenskej Republiky Slovenska Agentura Zivotneho Prostre-dia Bratislava Slovakia 2002

[37] D C Edwards and T B McKee ldquoCharacteristics of 20thcentury drought in the United States at multiple time scalesrdquoin Climatology Report vol 97 Colorado State University FortCollins Colo USA 1997

[38] M J Hayes M D Svoboda D AWilhite andO V VanyarkholdquoMonitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipita-tion indexrdquo Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol80 no 3 pp 429ndash438 1999

[39] S Yue and P Pilon ldquoA comparison of the power of the ttest Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detectionrdquoHydrological Sciences Journal vol 49 no 1 pp 21ndash37 2004

[40] S G Gulrado and F L Bermudez ldquoTrend of the rainfalls andtemperatures in a small fluvial basin of peninsular semiaridsouth-eastrdquo Boletın de la Asociacion de Geografos Espanoles vol56 pp 473ndash478 2011

[41] T Niedzwiedz E Łupikasza I Pinskwar Z W KundzewiczM Stoffel and Ł Małarzewski ldquoVariability of high rainfallsand related synoptic situations causing heavy floods at thenorthern foothills of the Tatra Mountainsrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 119 pp 273ndash284 2014

[42] L Labudova P Strsquoastny and M Trizna ldquoThe north atlanticoscillation and winter precipitation totals in Slovakiardquo Mora-vian Geographical Reports vol 21 no 4 pp 38ndash49 2013

[43] M Lapin and P Fasko ldquoPrecipitation and changes of theatmospheric circulation in the period 1874ndash1993 in SlovakiardquoMeteorologicke Zpravy vol 49 pp 1ndash11 1996

[44] M Lapin and J Tomlain General and Regional ClimatologyVydavatelrsquostvo UK Bratislava Slovakia 2001

[45] Z Sustek and J Vido ldquoVegetation state and extreme drought asfactors determining differentiation and succession of Carabidaecommunities in forests damaged by a windstorm in the HighTatra Mtsrdquo Biologia vol 68 no 6 pp 1198ndash1210 2013

[46] M D Eyre S P Rushton M L Luff and M G TelferldquoInvestigating the relationships between the distribution ofBritish ground beetle species (Coleoptera Carabidae) and tem-perature precipitation and altituderdquo Journal of Biogeographyvol 32 no 6 pp 973ndash983 2005

[47] P Fleischer ldquoWindfall research and monitoring in the HighTatra Mts objectives principles methods and current statusrdquoContributions to Geophysics and Geodesy vol 38 no 3 pp 233ndash248 2008

[48] R Soltes J Skolek Z Homolova and Z Kyselova ldquoEarlysuccessional pathways in the Tatra Mountains (Slovakia) forestecosystems following natural disturbancesrdquoBiologia vol 65 no6 pp 958ndash964 2010

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of


EarthquakesJournal of


Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of


Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering


GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of


OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in


MineralogyInternational Journal of


MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014


Geological ResearchJournal of


Geology Advances in


there is a more urgent need in understanding drought as apotential natural hazard and its spatial distribution featuresThis is very important because the Tatra National Park isunique by its high species diversity high number of endemicanimals (alpine marmot [Marmota marmota latirostris]Tatra chamois [Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica] Carabids [Del-tomerus tatricus Nebria tatrica]) and plants (Cerinthe glabrasubsp tatrica Primula halleri subsp platyphylla) [22ndash24] andspecific cultural landscape structures That is acknowledgedby the membership of this park in the UNESCO worldnetwork of biosphere reserves since 1993

However in assessing the drought across the TatraNational Park better understanding and consideration of thetopographic impact on precipitation are needed includingthe strong effect created over the lee ward side of the Tatramountain ridge ridges of surrounding mountains and localprecipitation shadows in particular mountain valleys Theseorographic features significantly influence spatial precipita-tion distribution that may exacerbate the drought impactsin the area [25] In addition it is necessary to consider therelatively higher precipitation amount compared to potentialevapotranspiration in the mountain areas of the NationalPark [17] For example edificator tree species in the forestecosystem such as spruce have normally more water (enoughsoil moisture) during the growing period as characterized bythe water balance method (ie precipitation minus evapo-transpiration) calculated by Skvarenina et al [17] Thereforea certain resistance level of ecosystems at higher altitudes dueto short-lasting precipitation fluctuations is expected [26]However long-lasting subnormal precipitation periods havesignificant impacts on ecosystems in the Tatra National Parksuch as weakening of tree condition [12] increase of wild firerisk [27] changes in population dynamics of climate sensitivepests [28] and depletion of groundwater in the creekswatersheds [29] that causes significant impacts on quali-tative and quantitative composition of benthic macrofauna[30] Thus better understanding of drought characteristicsover the mountainous region is helpful for managing theTatra National Park and preservation of its biodiversity Forinstance spatial information of drought prone areas couldbe used for improvement of the fire prevention plan Otherexamples of usage are detection of biotopes with lowerecological stability under drought influence because suchlocalities could be source for future outbreaks of biotic pests[11]

The main goal of this study is to characterize droughtvariability and its characteristics across the Tatra NationalPark as an integral part of Tatra Mts (Slovakia) in the period1961ndash2010

In this study the time series trend analysis of The Stan-dardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [31] for 12 months at thestations in the area of the Tatra Mts and the spatial patternsof drought episode occurrences across the Tatra NationalPark have been investigated SPI has been used because ofseveral advantages compared to other drought indices forexample the requirement of fewer input variables simplicityof calculation and comparability of droughts considering thetime and place (because the SPI is a dimensionless index) [3233] The reason to use 12-month SPI for long-term drought

Vysokeacute Tatry Mts

Niacutezke Tatry Mts

Liptovskaacute kotlina valley

Oravskaacute Magura Mts

Oravskeacute Beskydy Mts

Spišskaacute Magura Mts

Poland

Slovakia

Popradskaacute kotlina valley

0 10 15 20 25(km)

0 1000(km)

High 2654Low 182

UKRPOLDEUFRA

ESP

Elevation (m) 5

NLevo csk e Vrchy Mts

Figure 1 Geographical and geomorphological situation aroundthe Tatra Mts and Tatra National Park Solid line represents stateboundary between Slovakia and Poland Dashed line representsborder of the Tatra National Park Area with left-hatching representswindstorm calamity in 2004 Black point in the index figureindicates location of the study area in European context

assessment is based on results of Holko et al [29] who foundthat one year of precipitation deficits leads to depletion ofwater basins in the Tatra Mountains which had significantimpact on ecosystems of the National Park

2 Materials and Methods

21 The Area Specification Tatra National Park is located inthe TatraMountains (north Slovakia) the highest range in theCarpathian Mountains (the highest peak is Gerlachovsky stıtMt 2655masl) Two-thirds of the range belongs to Slovakiaand one-third to Poland Surrounding areas of mountainsconsist of the Oravske BeskydyMts (northwest) with highestpeak Babia Hora 1725m asl Oravska Magura Mts (west)reaching the height of 1394m asl at Mincol peak NızkeTatry Mts (south) with the maximum altitude at DumbierPeak (2043m asl) and Spissska MaguraMts with LevocskeVrchy Mts (east) reaching up to 1289m asl at the CiernaHora Peak The massive of the Tatra Mts is open only fromnorth to northnorthwest where a depression area is locatedmdashSubcarpathia (Poland) South of the TatraMts the LiptovskaKotlina valley is located which forms the southern borderof the Tatra National Park and foothills of the Tatra Mts(Figure 1)

The relief of the Tatra Mts was created by glacial activityin the last ice age [35] Subspecies endemic to the TatraMts (eg Alpine marmot [Marmota marmota latirostris]and Tatra chamois [Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica] Carabids[Deltomerus tatricus Nebria tatrica]) also date back to thisera Area of this unique species is located mostly over 1500masl

Geomorphologically the mountains are divided into theWest (Zapadne Tatry) and East Tatra Mts (Vychodne Tatry)West Tatra Mountains are lower (highest peak is Bystra










7

5

3

2

8

4

1

9

6

171413

10

11

16

15

Poland

Slovakia

Habovka


Vysokeacute Tatry

0 9 12 15(km)63

N



















1961

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2006

2008

2010

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

SPI











0 9 12 15(km)


Habovka Poland

Vysokeacute Tatry


63

N










4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References




























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in










7

5

3

2

8

4

1

9

6

171413

10

11

16

15

Poland

Slovakia

Habovka


Vysokeacute Tatry

0 9 12 15(km)63

N



















1961

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2006

2008

2010

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

SPI











0 9 12 15(km)


Habovka Poland

Vysokeacute Tatry


63

N










4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References




























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

















1961

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2006

2008

2010

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

SPI











0 9 12 15(km)


Habovka Poland

Vysokeacute Tatry


63

N










4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References




























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


0 9 12 15(km)


Habovka Poland

Vysokeacute Tatry


63

N










4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References




























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in





Acknowledgments


References




























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

research article drought occurrence in central european mountainous … · 2019. 7. 31. ·...

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