research analyst equity resource engineer engineering … · 2016. 4. 11. · gold and other...
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BAILLIEU HOLST QUANT RESEARCH
11 April 2016 INTERNAL ONLY
Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 1
RESEARCH ANALYST Mathan Somasundaram
+612 9250 8947 [email protected]
Equity Resource Engineer
ENGINEERING GUIDE TO EQUITY STRATEGY
Gold remains precious
Macro outlook: Global growth remains weak and volatile with major economies maintaining easing bias. China, Europe and Japan are expected to deliver more QE and stimulus while the US remains in low interest rate outlook for longer than expected. The short term bounce in commodities on the back of a weak USD is unlikely to last in the medium to long term. Global downgrades and rising USD strength continues to weigh on non-precious commodities. Equities linked to non-precious commodities struggle to provide earnings clarity despite the recent bounce from the Chinese New Year. The lack of any supply side action despite falling demand will continue to deliver negative growth outlook. The risk of the US Fed move, the negative outlook for non-precious commodities and the stretched multiples after recent bounce supports the view to reduce exposure and come back when the outlook gets more clarity. The gold sector remains the only commodity with positive macro, growth, value and safety aspects.
Energy Sector: Remains in the high risk category due to falling global growth, oversupply and historically low ROE at stretched multiples after the recent bounce on OPEC and non-OPEC supply-side deal. We struggle to see a deal when Iran is at the early stages of production rebuild. Time to take profit and come back when there is change in the demand/supply dynamics.
Metals & Mining (Ex Gold): Remains in the high risk category due to volatile commodity prices, US Fed action, China risk and weaker global growth. The recent bounce on short covering rally has moved the multiples past the optimistic commodity price assumption levels. The sliding ROE and substantial premium to fair value supports the negative outlook. Time to take profit and come back when there is change in the demand/supply dynamics.
Gold: Gold equities (i.e. EVN, NCM, NST and SAR) outlook remains robust with rising growth and ROE from a long term fair value basis. The rising market risk and falling currency will favour Aussie gold miners. The Gold equities continue to improve their balance sheet and operations as the spot gold price remains strong.
BAILLIEU HOLST QUANT RESEARCH
11 April 2016
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Contents Major Sector Outlook – Resources 3 Sector Outlook – Energy 5 Sector Outlook – Metals & Mining (Ex Gold) 7 Sector Outlook – Gold 10
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Major sector outlook – Resources Summary – The Resources sector valuation shows that the market is well ahead of the
earnings in the short term. The rise in the USD and the potential flow on effects into emerging markets remains as one of the key negatives for commodities struggling with over supply. Gold and other precious metals are benefitting from the tight supply and demand elasticity with heightened market risk profile. The large miners have had a bounce on recent commodity strength while medium to long term dynamics still remains weak. The Energy sector is a bet on the oil price as the market lacks any clarity on the short to medium term outlook. The OPEC and non-OPEC producers getting together later this month is unlikely to deliver support for recent recovery as Iran is expected to maintain substantial supply growth mode.
Value – Resources trading at a substantial premium to long term average.
Growth – Sliding ROE to historical low level shows the risk in growth recovery assumption in 2017.
Yield – The gap between dividend yield and bond yield has disappeared as the main yield players start to downgrade yield outlook.
Risk – Earnings yield to bond yield gap shows risk is at medium level. Falling commodity prices, US Fed move and emerging market growth downgrades are adding to the risk in the sector.
Momentum – Price momentum shoots up to positive territory despite earnings revision down in substantial negative territory.
Long term sector charts – FIG. 4-2 to FIG. 4-9.
FIG.1-1: COST OF STYLE
500
1000
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3500
4000
4500
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0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
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14.00
Cost of Growth Cost of Yield
GARY (Growth At Reasonable Yield) S&P 300 Resources ‐ RHS
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
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11 April 2016
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Resources (S&P 300) FIG.1-2: INDEX WITH PE BANDS FIG.1-3: INDEX WITH PB BANDS
0
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FIG.1-4: EARNINGS YIELD TO BOND YIELD GAP AND INDEX FIG.1-5: DIV YIELD AND BOND YIELD
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4000
4500
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-4.00
-2.00
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16.00
Earnings Yield to Bond Yiled Gap (%) ‐ LHS Price Index ‐ RHS
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2.00
3.00
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7.00
Forward Dividend Yield 10Year Bond Yield Average DY Average BY
FIG.1-6: EARNINGS GROWTH FIG.1-7: ROE
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
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70.00
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10.00
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40.00
FIG.1-8: PE FIG.1-9: EARNINGS REVISION AND PRICE MOMENTUM
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
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-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
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3mth Avg Earnings Revision 3mth Price Momentum
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
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Sector outlook – Energy Summary – The Energy sector short covering bounce is likely to be short lived without
supply side action. The OPEC move to maintain oversupply with new entrants suggests that we are likely to remain in oversupply in the short to medium term. The recent optimism on supply side freeze or reduction between OPEC and non-OPEC producers are unlikely to eventuate as Iran is at the early stages of their supply growth. The longer term dynamics still remain negative with improving renewable energy options. Declining ROE outlook raises questions about the sustainability of the high growth outlook in 2017. Small cap energy stocks with solid balance sheets will come back in favour at the recent low levels.
Preferred Picks – None
Long term sector charts – FIG. 7-2 to FIG. 7-9
FIG.2-1: CONSENSUS STOCK OUTLOOK
Code Share Price ($)Equity
Capital ($m)
Price Target
($)Rating
NPAT ($m)
2016
NPAT ($m)
2017
EPS Growth
(%) 2016
EPS Growth
(%) 2017PE (x) 2016 PE (x) 2017
ROE (%)
2016
ROE (%)
2017
Div Yield (%)
2016
Div Yield (%)
2017
AWE 0.57 300 0.83 HOLD ‐68 ‐5 278.59 ‐93.70 ‐4.49 ‐71.25 ‐4.00 ‐0.69 0.00 0.00
BPT 0.62 1154 0.67 HOLD 33 106 ‐71.13 185.71 29.52 10.33 3.02 8.98 0.97 1.61
CTX 34.51 9318 36.93 BUY 594 602 ‐4.10 3.49 15.46 14.94 21.31 20.17 3.67 3.60
FAR 0.10 360 0.15 BUY ‐8 ‐8 ‐100.00 N/A N/A N/A ‐5.73 ‐7.02 0.00 0.00
KAR 1.23 302 2.42 BUY ‐24 ‐23 ‐40.50 4.04 ‐12.37 ‐11.89 ‐2.87 ‐2.79 0.00 0.00
LNG 0.48 242 8.00 BUY ‐81 ‐167 ‐187.25 ‐640.00 7.38 ‐1.37 N/A N/A 0.00 0.00
ORG 4.47 7837 5.32 BUY 381 624 ‐54.92 43.51 18.70 13.03 2.38 3.72 3.22 3.29
OSH 6.45 9821 7.89 HOLD 143 385 ‐74.06 201.56 76.21 25.27 3.28 6.32 0.94 1.87
PDN 0.24 411 0.28 HOLD ‐44 11 ‐65.51 ‐133.19 ‐10.05 30.28 ‐15.07 5.33 0.00 0.00
SEH 0.08 158 0.31 BUY 0 22 ‐150.45 700.00 38.00 4.75 1.80 12.87 0.00 0.00
STO 3.83 6794 4.36 HOLD 59 496 ‐69.15 1147.83 166.52 13.34 1.03 5.00 1.33 3.47
SXY 0.26 300 0.26 BUY 8 5 137.04 ‐25.00 32.50 43.33 2.19 1.47 0.00 0.00
WHC 0.60 610 0.74 HOLD 15 27 ‐142.76 33.33 49.58 37.19 0.44 1.09 0.00 0.00
WOR 5.30 1300 4.84 HOLD 156 137 ‐22.07 ‐12.97 8.39 9.64 7.59 7.02 5.32 8.53
WPL 24.94 20548 28.75 HOLD 838 1204 ‐36.35 52.25 23.93 15.72 3.72 5.46 3.22 4.86
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
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11 April 2016
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Energy (GIC 10) FIG.2-2: INDEX WITH PE BANDS FIG.2-3: INDEX WITH PB BANDS
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FIG.2-4: EARNINGS YIELD TO BOND YIELD GAP AND INDEX FIG.2-5: DIV YIELD AND BOND YIELD
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6500
7500
-3.00
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Earnings Yield to Bond Yiled Gap (%) ‐ LHS Price Index ‐ RHS
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2.00
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Forward Dividend Yield 10Year Bond Yield Average DY Average BY
FIG.2-6: EARNINGS GROWTH FIG.2-7: ROE
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
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35.00
FIG.2-8: PE FIG.2-9: EARNINGS REVISION AND PRICE MOMENTUM
7.00
12.00
17.00
22.00
27.00
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-50.00
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
3mth Avg Earnings Revision 3mth Price Momentum
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
BAILLIEU HOLST QUANT RESEARCH
11 April 2016
Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 7
Sector outlook – Metals & Mining (ex Gold) Summary – Trading at a substantial premium to long term average despite unsustainable
commodity price bounce. The declining ROE outlooks for big and small miners support the long term negative outlook. Analyst’s optimism in a commodity rebound in 2017 has started to wane as US Fed pulls back the interest rate cycle on growth worries. The majority of the analysts remain negative on the medium to long term dynamics on the base metal sector.
Preferred Picks – None
Long term sector charts – FIG. 9-2 to FIG. 9-17.
FIG.3-1: CONSENSUS STOCK OUTLOOK
Code Share Price ($)Equity
Capital ($m)
Price Target
($)Rating
NPAT ($m)
2016
NPAT ($m)
2017
EPS Growth
(%) 2016
EPS Growth
(%) 2017PE (x) 2016 PE (x) 2017
ROE (%)
2016
ROE (%)
2017
Div Yield (%)
2016
Div Yield (%)
2017
AWC 1.27 3672 1.45 HOLD 71 181 ‐72.35 165.00 50.80 19.17 2.98 5.26 3.11 5.10
BHP 16.18 51965 21.28 HOLD 1524 3672 ‐87.01 155.42 63.79 24.98 1.29 3.38 3.12 2.64
BSL 6.04 3451 6.19 BUY 221 300 86.38 28.46 15.21 11.84 5.29 6.41 1.23 1.49
FMG 2.66 8283 2.33 HOLD 622 262 14.83 ‐54.11 13.79 30.05 6.64 3.02 2.25 1.90
IGO 2.74 1401 3.20 BUY 23 67 ‐87.07 178.26 59.57 21.41 0.86 5.03 1.20 2.34
ILU 5.82 2437 6.40 HOLD 140 148 58.37 8.76 17.58 16.17 7.63 9.93 3.87 4.71
LYC 0.08 283 0.10 BUY ‐67 57 ‐52.00 ‐183.33 ‐4.50 5.40 ‐61.49 98.21 0.00 0.00
MLX 0.93 443 1.75 BUY 46 130 9.29 175.49 9.12 3.31 10.88 24.04 3.23 8.60
ORE 2.99 626 2.90 HOLD ‐35 0 168.82 ‐111.86 ‐15.41 130.00 ‐14.76 ‐7.67 0.00 0.00
OZL 4.98 1511 4.95 HOLD 58 71 ‐52.32 18.45 24.17 20.41 2.36 2.95 2.91 3.41
PLS 0.61 519 0.80 BUY ‐6 ‐5 N/A ‐14.29 ‐86.43 ‐100.83 ‐40.00 ‐26.00 N/A N/A
RIO 43.26 18351 49.77 HOLD 3505 4269 ‐46.21 25.39 23.29 18.58 6.40 7.12 3.53 2.77
S32 1.46 7773 1.62 BUY ‐74 315 ‐92.59 327.02 109.76 25.70 0.55 2.98 0.46 1.91
SFR 5.38 846 5.69 HOLD 63 84 ‐35.09 50.40 14.50 9.64 15.13 17.68 1.88 2.53
SGM 8.80 1772 8.04 HOLD 14 80 ‐81.27 358.89 97.78 21.31 1.05 4.49 1.93 2.67
SYR 3.69 854 5.71 BUY ‐12 ‐4 ‐1.20 ‐57.41 ‐68.33 ‐160.43 ‐6.90 ‐2.79 0.00 0.60
WSA 2.03 535 2.30 HOLD ‐5 36 ‐108.51 ‐810.53 ‐106.84 15.04 ‐1.36 8.88 1.23 2.41
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
BAILLIEU HOLST QUANT RESEARCH
11 April 2016
Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 8
Metals & Mining (ex Gold) FIG.3-2: INDEX WITH PE BANDS FIG.3-3: INDEX WITH PB BANDS
0
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7000
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FIG.3-4: EARNINGS YIELD TO BOND YIELD GAP AND INDEX FIG.3-5: DIV YIELD AND BOND YIELD
500
1000
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-5.00
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Earnings Yield to Bond Yiled Gap (%) ‐ LHS Price Index ‐ RHS
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Forward Dividend Yield 10Year Bond Yield Average DY Average BY
FIG.3-6: EARNINGS GROWTH FIG.3-7: ROE
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
FIG.3-8: PE FIG.3-9: EARNINGS REVISION AND PRICE MOMENTUM
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-60.00
-50.00
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-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
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50.00
3mth Avg Earnings Revision 3mth Price Momentum
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
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11 April 2016
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Metals & Mining (ex BHP, RIO and Gold) FIG.3-10: INDEX WITH PE BANDS FIG.3-11: INDEX WITH PB BANDS
0
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FIG.3-12: EARNINGS YIELD TO BOND YIELD GAP AND INDEX FIG.3-13: DIV YIELD AND BOND YIELD
500
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5500
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Earnings Yield to Bond Yiled Gap (%) ‐ LHS Price Index ‐ RHS
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4.00
5.00
6.00
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8.00
9.00
Forward Dividend Yield 10Year Bond Yield Average DY Average BY
FIG.3-14: EARNINGS GROWTH FIG.3-15: ROE
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
FIG.3-16: PE FIG.3-17: EARNINGS REVISION AND PRICE MOMENTUM
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
3mth Avg Earnings Revision 3mth Price Momentum
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
BAILLIEU HOLST QUANT RESEARCH
11 April 2016
Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 10
Sector outlook – Gold Summary – Gold remains the key precious metal commodity with recovering ROE, fair
value, solid growth and protection against rising global macro risk. The Australian gold miners have delivered solid market updates into the reporting season and are expected to enjoy the benefit of rising spot gold in USD as well as falling AUDUSD. We maintain our positive outlook for gold despite the substantial outperformance in the recent months. Despite the recent outperformance, we expect analyst to upgrade on better than expected production and commodity prices.
Preferred Picks – EVN, NCM, NST and SAR
Long term sector charts – FIG. 10-2 to FIG. 10-9.
FIG.4-1: CONSENSUS STOCK OUTLOOK
Code Share Price ($)Equity
Capital ($m)
Price Target
($)Rating
NPAT ($m)
2016
NPAT ($m)
2017
EPS Growth
(%) 2016
EPS Growth
(%) 2017PE (x) 2016 PE (x) 2017
ROE (%)
2016
ROE (%)
2017
Div Yield (%)
2016
Div Yield (%)
2017
AQG 2.57 750 3.78 BUY 25 34 ‐66.15 15.68 35.13 30.37 2.68 3.26 0.00 0.00
BDR 0.30 317 0.30 BUY 36 43 ‐375.62 5.13 7.69 7.32 18.34 16.34 2.00 2.67
EVN 1.66 2437 1.71 HOLD 253 266 62.88 0.56 9.22 9.17 15.66 15.06 1.45 1.99
GOR 0.46 325 0.64 BUY ‐7 ‐10 ‐21.05 20.00 ‐46.50 ‐38.75 ‐10.05 ‐10.53 0.00 0.00
NCM 17.53 13437 15.11 HOLD 310 565 ‐33.23 85.31 41.54 22.42 3.63 6.85 0.07 0.86
NST 3.69 2215 2.96 HOLD 167 266 25.63 46.21 12.72 8.70 40.65 48.13 2.03 2.87
OGC 3.91 2363 3.90 HOLD 117 211 ‐15.06 79.58 20.84 11.61 7.86 12.61 1.16 1.22
PRU 0.41 217 0.46 HOLD ‐12 ‐11 ‐111.56 53.85 ‐31.54 ‐20.50 0.51 ‐0.68 0.00 0.00
RRL 2.35 1174 2.11 HOLD 91 118 11.87 26.63 12.77 10.09 20.76 23.46 4.04 5.15
RSG 0.64 411 0.61 HOLD 69 70 6.14 0.00 6.53 6.53 16.77 18.88 0.00 3.13
SAR 1.05 832 0.82 HOLD 31 94 ‐1.54 192.50 26.25 8.97 13.64 27.19 0.00 0.38
SBM 2.28 1129 2.44 HOLD 129 182 232.50 36.47 8.57 6.28 59.13 48.07 0.00 0.00
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
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Gold FIG.4-2: INDEX WITH PE BANDS FIG.4-3: INDEX WITH PB BANDS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
FIG.4-4: EARNINGS YIELD TO BOND YIELD GAP AND INDEX FIG.4-5: DIV YIELD AND BOND YIELD
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Earnings Yield to Bond Yiled Gap (%) ‐ LHS Price Index ‐ RHS
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Forward Dividend Yield 10Year Bond Yield Average DY Average BY
FIG.4-6: EARNINGS GROWTH FIG.4-7: ROE
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
FIG.4-8: PE FIG.4-9: EARNINGS REVISION AND PRICE MOMENTUM
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
3mth Avg Earnings Revision 3mth Price Momentum
Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson Source: ASX, Baillieu Holst, Bloomberg, IRESS, Thomson
BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH
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Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393
Australian Financial Service Licence No. 245421 Participant of ASX Group Participant of NSX Ltd
Analysts’ stock ratings are defined as follows:
Buy: The stock’s total return is expected to increase by at least 10-15 percent from the current share price over the next 12 months.
Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to trade within a range of ±10-15 percent from the current share price over the next 12 months.
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Baillieu Holst Ltd
ABN 74 006 519 393
Australian Financial Service Licence No. 245421 Participant of ASX Group Participant of NSX Ltd www.baillieuholst.com.au Melbourne (Head Office) Address Level 26, 360 Collins Street Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia Postal PO Box 48, Collins Street West Melbourne, VIC 8007 Australia Phone +61 3 9602 9222 Facsimile +61 3 9602 2350 Email [email protected] Adelaide Office Address 1, 341 Payneham Road Marden, SA 5070 Australia Phone +61 8 7074 8400 Facsimile +61 8 8362 3942 Email [email protected] Bendigo Office Address Cnr Bridge & Baxter Streets Bendigo, VIC 3550 Australia Postal PO Box 40 North Bendigo VIC 3550 Australia Phone +61 3 4433 3400 Facsimile +61 3 4433 3430 Email [email protected] Brisbane Office Address Level 18, 333 Ann Street Brisbane, QLD 4000 Australia Phone +61 7 3232 1110 Email [email protected] Geelong Office Address 16 Aberdeen Street Geelong West Vic 3218 Postal PO Box 364 Geelong Vic 3220 Australia Phone +61 3 5229 4637 Facsimile +61 3 4229 4142 Email [email protected] Newcastle Office Address Level 1, 120 Darby Street Cooks Hill, NSW 2300 Australia Postal PO Box 111 The Junction, NSW 2291 Australia Phone +61 2 4037 3500 Facsimile +61 2 4037 3511 Email [email protected] Perth Office Address Level 10, 191 St Georges Terrace Perth WA 6000 Australia Postal PO Box 7662, Cloisters Square Perth, WA 6850 Australia Phone +61 8 6141 9450 Facsimile +61 8 6141 9499 Email [email protected] Sydney Office Address Level 18, 1 Alfred Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Postal PO Box R1797 Royal Exchange, NSW 1225 Australia Phone +61 2 9250 8900 Facsimile +61 2 9247 4092 Email [email protected]