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Draft GRANT FUNDING OPPORTUNITYFor Public Comment

Wildfire: Assessing and Preparing for Risks under Climate Change

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Table of ContentsI. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................... 1

A. PURPOSE OF SOLICITATION....................................................................................................................................1B. KEY WORDS/TERMS.............................................................................................................................................2C. APPLICANTS’ ADMONISHMENT...............................................................................................................................4D. BACKGROUND.....................................................................................................................................................4E. FUNDING...........................................................................................................................................................7F. KEY ACTIVITIES SCHEDULE.....................................................................................................................................9G. NOTICE OF PRE-APPLICATION WORKSHOP..............................................................................................................10H. QUESTIONS......................................................................................................................................................10

II. ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS...................................................................................................................... 12

A. APPLICANT REQUIREMENTS.................................................................................................................................12B. PROJECT REQUIREMENTS....................................................................................................................................13

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I. Introduction

A. PURPOSE OF SOLICITATION The purpose of this solicitation is to develop tools and analysis to inform energy policy and planning decisions. The funded applied research and development project must fill gaps in knowledge of fire science and apply that new knowledge to improve models to assess wildfire risk for grid operations and planning. The project will develop next-generation wildfire risk models at both local and statewide scales. Such models are needed to help ensure resiliency of the electric grid in the near- and long-terms in the face of the growing wildfire risk under climate change. This solicitation is seeking specific advances in wildfire modeling regarding extreme weather and wind events, the effects of widespread tree mortality, the dynamics of vegetation/fuel with climate change, and fire behavior in the wildland-urban interface (WUI).

Climate change is expected to exacerbate wildfire risk through hotter temperatures, greater moisture deficits even in wetter years, and greater likelihood of prolonged drought and possibly associated beetle-caused tree mortality (Westerling 2018). This increased risk is expected to increase outages and damage on both the transmission and distribution grids unless adaptation measures are implemented (Dale et al. 2018). Preparing the IOUs for climate change and wildfire risk needs to be supported by new tools at two scales. The electric utilities need to increase their wildfire situational awareness and near-term (up to 7 days in advance) risk forecasting at a local scale to ensure resiliency in their operations. San Diego Gas and Electric has pioneered this space, but it remains a “big data” challenge and needs to be extended to other service territories. On the other hand, utilities and others need long-term (to mid- and late-century) models of wildfire risk to plan for future infrastructure investment that anticipates the effects of climate change. Modeling at both scales would greatly benefit from advances in fire science, particularly in the areas of wind regimes, the effects of unprecedented tree mortality, and fire spread in the wildland-urban interface where the most destructive fires occur.

Extreme wind events (e.g., Santa Ana and Diablo winds) are a critical factor driving many of the most devastating wildfires in California. Historical wind data are poor, and model reconstructions of historical wind speeds do not agree with each other (Pierce et al. 2018). Some projections estimate increases in Santa Ana Winds (SAW) with a changing climate (Jin et al. 2015); some see no trend in the historical record (Guzman-Morales et al. 2016) and no change in the projections; and still others project a gradual decrease in SAW activity (Pierce et al. 2018; Guzman-Morales, 2018). The Energy Commission has funded Scripps Institution of Oceanography to refine “downscaling” models (EPC-16-063) to be ready when the global climate scenarios are available for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment. This new downscaling effort will combine statistical models and dynamic “weather” models. The new downscaling technique should improve wind information for wildfire simulations in the future. Utilities have been installing networks of automated weather and environmental monitoring stations designed to observe mesoscale meteorological phenomena, or mesonets, in fire hazard areas within their own service territories to get better real-time situational awareness of conditions including local winds on short time scales. This new wind data can also be used to help validate Scripps’ wind model. Given the cost to install and maintain these mesonets and the computing infrastructure to analyze massive data volumes, it is essential that these weather stations be located to generate maximum information content about wildfire risk.

The recent drought caused unprecedented tree mortality in California’s conifer forests. This massive increase in dead fuels led to fears of further worsening of fire risk, particularly in the

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southern Sierra Nevada where the die-off was most pronounced. Because tree mortality was at an unprecedented scale, there was insufficient empirical data to parameterize this factor in Westerling’s (2018) fire severity model for the Fourth Assessment. Instead, he employed a heuristic model proposed by a group of fire experts convened by the U.S. Forest Service to explore the sensitivity of severity to a range of plausible probabilities. The effects of the tree die-off on fuels and fire severity need to be investigated, because the situation is so novel. It has been hypothesized that as dead trees fall, the build-up of heavy ground fuels could create very hot, slow moving “mass fires” that California has not experienced before (Stephens et al. 2018). Large, multidisciplinary studies have been initiated by teams led by UCLA and by UC Berkeley to examine the interaction of climate, fire, and tree dieback and the implications of massive tree mortality on forest ecosystems. It may take a decade or more for this pulse of dead fuel to fall and accumulate on the ground so that the effects on wildfire could be observed. Experimental studies could be undertaken now, however, to parameterize wildfire models in the near term. Wildfire models also appear to be sensitive to whether dynamic changes in fuels are accounted for from the effects of wildfire and climate change on vegetation rather than ignored or assumed to be static (Syphard et al. 2018).

The most destructive fires tend to occur in the low-density WUI and the urban fringe where structures and wildland fuels comingle. This is where the distribution grid is particularly vulnerable to wildfire because of its proximity to heavy fuel loads. Westerling’s model did not fully simulate fire ignition and spread in the WUI. This was partly because the land use change modeling was done independently from the fire modeling and partly because this is a nascent, but complex, area of research in wildfire modeling (Mahmoud and Chulahwat 2018). Dynamic modeling in the WUI and rural areas is also important for real-time monitoring and near-term fire weather forecasting at a local scale. For example, SDG&E owns and operates an extensive weather station network that provides real-time data for its fire program. These data are used by the utility to calculate a daily Fire Potential Index (FPI) at a district level to guide operational decisions. The IOUs have discussed extending the FPI statewide as they deploy similar weather networks.

See Part II of this solicitation for project eligibility requirements. Applications will be evaluated as follows: Stage One proposal screening and Stage Two proposal scoring. Applicants may submit multiple applications, though each application must address only one of the project groups identified above. If an applicant submits multiple applications that address the same project group, each application must be for a distinct project (i.e., no overlap with respect to the tasks described in the Scope of Work, Attachment 6).

B. KEY WORDS/TERMS

Word/Term DefinitionApplicant The entity that submits an application to this solicitation

Application An applicant’s written response to this solicitation

CAM Commission Agreement Manager, the person designated by the Energy Commission to oversee the performance of an agreement resulting from this solicitation and to serve as the main point of contact for the Recipient

CAO Commission Agreement Officer

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Word/Term DefinitionCEQA California Environmental Quality Act, California Public Resources

Code Section 21000 et seq.

Days Days refers to calendar days

Disadvantaged Community

These are communities defined as areas representing census tracts scoring in the top 25 percent in CalEnviroScreen 3.0. (https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30)

EPIC Electric Program Investment Charge, the source of funding for the projects awarded under this solicitation

Energy Commission or just Commission

State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission or as commonly called, the California Energy Commission

IOU Investor-owned utility, an electrical corporation as defined in in California Public Utilities Code section 218. For purposes of this EPIC solicitation, it includes Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Diego Gas and Electric Co., and Southern California Edison Co.

NOPA Notice of Proposed Award, a public notice by the Energy Commission that identifies award recipients

Pre-Commercial Pre-commercial Technology means a technology that has not reached commercial maturity or been deployed at scales sufficiently large and in conditions sufficiently reflective of anticipated actual operating environments to enable the appraisal of operational and performance characteristics, or of financial risks.

Pilot Test Pilot test means small scale testing in the laboratory or testing on a small portion of the production line of the affected industry. Pilot tests help to verify the design and validity of an approach, and adjustments can be made at this stage before full-scale demonstrations

Principal Investigator The technical lead for the applicant’s project, who is responsible for overseeing the project; in some instances, the Principal Investigator and Project Manager may be the same person

Project Manager The person designated by the applicant to oversee the project and to serve as the main point of contact for the Energy Commission

Project Partner An entity or individual that contributes financially or otherwise to the project (e.g., match funding, provision of a test, demonstration or deployment site), and does not receive Energy Commission funds

Recipient An entity receiving an award under this solicitation

Solicitation This entire document, including all attachments, exhibits, any addendum and written notices, and questions and answers (“solicitation” may be used interchangeably with “Grant Funding Opportunity”)

State State of California

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C. APPLICANTS’ ADMONISHMENT

This solicitation contains application requirements and instructions. Applicants are responsible for carefully reading the solicitation, asking appropriate questions in a timely manner, ensuring that all solicitation requirements are met, submitting all required responses in a complete manner by the required date and time, and carefully rereading the solicitation before submitting an application. In particular, please carefully read the Screening/Scoring Criteria and Grounds for Rejection in Part IV, and the terms and conditions located at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/research/contractors.html.

Applicants are solely responsible for the cost of developing applications. This cost cannot be charged to the State. All submitted documents will become publicly available records upon the posting of the Notice of Proposed Award.

D. BACKGROUND

1. Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC) ProgramThis solicitation will award projects funded by the EPIC, an electricity ratepayer surcharge established by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in December 2011.1 The purpose of the EPIC program is to benefit the ratepayers of three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), including Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Diego Gas and Electric Co., and Southern California Edison Co. The EPIC funds clean energy technology projects that promote greater electricity reliability, lower costs, and increased safety.2 In addition to providing IOU ratepayer benefits, funded projects must lead to technological advancement and breakthroughs to overcome the barriers that prevent the achievement of the state’s statutory energy goals.3 The EPIC program is administered by the California Energy Commission and the IOUs.

2. Program Areas, Strategic Objectives, and Funding InitiativesEPIC projects must fall within the following program areas identified by the CPUC:

Applied research and development;

Technology demonstration and deployment; and

Market facilitation

In addition, projects must fall within one of the general focus areas (“strategic objectives”) identified in the Energy Commission’s EPIC Investment Plans4 5 and within one or more specific focus areas (“funding initiatives”) identified in the plan. This solicitation targets the following

1 See CPUC “Phase 1” Decision 11-12-035, December 15, 2011, http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/WORD_PDF/FINAL_DECISION/156050.PDF.2 See CPUC “Phase 2” Decision 12-05-037, May 24, 2012, http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/WORD_PDF/FINAL_DECISION/167664.PDF.3 California Public Resources Code, Section 25711.5(a), http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/displaycode?section=prc&group=25001-26000&file=25710-25712.4 2012-14 EPIC Triennial Investment Plan, http://www.energy.ca.gov/research/epic/documents/final_documents_submitted_to_CPUC/2012-11-01_EPIC_Application_to_CPUC.pdf (Attachment 1), as modified and approved by CPUC Decision 13-11-025, http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M081/K773/81773445.PDF. 5 2015-17 EPIC Triennial Investment Plan, http://www.energy.ca.gov/2014publications/CEC-500-2014-038/CEC-500-2014-038-CMF.pdf, as modified and approved by CPUC Decision 15-04-020, http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M151/K183/151183650.PDF.

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program area, strategic objective, and funding initiative:

EPIC 2018-2020 Triennial Investment Plan: Program Area: Applied Research and Development

Strategic Objective S7: Develop Tools and Analysis to Inform Energy Policy and Planning Decisions

o Funding Initiative S7.2: Increase the Resiliency of the Electricity System to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

3. Applicable Laws, Policies, and Background Documents This solicitation addresses the energy goals described in the following laws, policies, and background documents.

Laws/Regulations

Assembly Bill (AB) 28006 - Climate change: infrastructure planningTo ensure that existing infrastructure is readied for the coming impacts of climate change and associated extreme weather events and investment in new infrastructure accounts for climate change from the outset, AB 2800 (Quirk, 2016) established the Climate-Safe Infrastructure Working Group (CSIWG) to bring together scientific experts, engineers and architects from multiple scientific and infrastructure disciplines to examine how climate change impacts can be included in infrastructure planning, design, and implementation processes.

Additional information: http://resources.ca.gov/climate/climate-safe-infrastructure-working-group/

Applicable Law: Section 71155 of the Public Resources Code

Policies/Plans

Integrated Energy Policy Report (Biennial)California Public Resources Code Section 25302 requires the Energy Commission to release a biennial report that provides an overview of major energy trends and issues facing the state. The IEPR assesses and forecasts all aspects of energy industry supply, production, transportation, delivery, distribution, demand, and pricing. The Energy Commission uses these assessments and forecasts to develop energy policies. The 2015 IEPR included a multi-agency hearing on drought response and provided recommendations for future research and analysis areas.

Additional information: http://www.energy.ca.gov/energypolicy

Applicable Law: California Public Resources Code § 25300 et seq.

CPUC – Fire Safety RulemakingThe general scope of Rulemaking 15-05-006 was to address the following matters carried over from the scope of R.08-11-005: (1) develop and adopt a statewide fire-threat map that delineates the boundaries of a new High Fire-Threat District (HFTD)

6 AB 2800 (Statutes of 2016, chapter 580)

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where the previously adopted regulations will apply, (2) determine the need for additional fire-safety regulations in the HFTD, and (3) revise GO 95 to include a definition and maps of the HFTD, as well as any new fire-safety regulations. The scope and schedule for R.15-05-006 was divided into two parallel tracks. One track focused on the development and adoption of a statewide fire-threat map. The second track focused on the identification, evaluation, and adoption of fire-safety regulations in the HFTD.

Additional Information:

http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/firethreatmaps/

Executive Order B-30-15

Governor Brown’s Executive Order B-30-15 established a new interim statewide greenhouse gas emission reduction target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, to ensure California meets its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Executive Order B-52-18California Governor Brown issued Executive Order B-52-18 to support the state’s resilience to wildfire and other climate impacts, address extensive tree mortality, increase forests' capacity for carbon capture, and improve forest and forest fire management. Wildfires of magnitude exacerbated by drought and other climate factors are impeding the state’s efforts to mitigate GHGs - while bringing catastrophic effects onto communities, wildlife, and watershed health.

Additional Information:

https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/5.10.18-Forest-EO.pdf

The Governor's State of Emergency Proclamation on Tree MortalityThe declaration released on October 30, 2015, declared a state of emergency and sought federal action to help mobilize additional resources for the safe removal of dead and dying trees. It also states, “The California Energy Commission shall prioritize grant funding from the Electric Program Investment Charge for woody biomass-to-energy technology development and deployment, consistent with direction from the California Public Utilities Commission.”

Additional Information:

https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/10.30.15_Tree_Mortality_State_of_Emergency.pdf

Climate Change Research Plan for CaliforniaSuccessfully negotiating climate change challenges will require integrating a sound scientific basis for climate preparedness into local planning, resource management, infrastructure, and public health, as well as introducing new strategies to reduce GHG emissions or increase carbon sequestration into nearly every sector of California’s economy. This Climate Change Research Plan presents a strategy for developing the requisite knowledge through a targeted body of policy-relevant, California-specific research. The plan calls for research to better estimate the impacts of climate change on the existing energy infrastructure (e.g., wildfires on electricity distribution networks).

Additional Information:

http://climatechange.ca.gov/climate_action_team/reports/CAT_research_plan_2015.pdf

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Safeguarding California Plan: 2018 UpdateAs mandated by AB 1482, the state must prepare an update of its climate adaptation strategy. The Safeguarding California Plan: 2018 Update – California’s Climate Adaptation Strategy builds on nearly a decade of adaptation strategies to communicate current and needed actions state government should take to build climate change resiliency. It identifies hundreds of ongoing actions and next steps state agencies are taking to safeguard Californians from climate impacts within a framework of 81 policy principles and recommendations. Among these recommendations are: Continue to support climate research for the energy sector to better inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies; continue incorporating implications of climate change into all E-3 energy sector planning and decision-making; and coordinate cross-sector planning to maintain energy system resilience, including wildfire risk and biomass utilization, hydropower, and low carbon vehicles.

Additional Information:

http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/

Reference Documents

Refer to the documents below for information about activities associated with wildfire risk modeling, climate change, and grid vulnerability to wildfire:

Westerling 2018 - http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/techreports/docs/20180827-Projections_CCCA4-CEC-2018-014.pdf

Dale et al. 2018 - http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/techreports/docs/20180827-Energy_CCCA4-CEC-2018-002.pdf

E. FUNDING

1. Amount Available and Minimum/ Maximum Funding AmountsThere is up to $5,000,000 available for a grant awarded under this solicitation. The minimum funding amount for the project is $4,000,000. The maximum funding amount is $5,000,000.

2. Match Funding RequirementMatch funding is not required for this solicitation. However, applications that include match funding will receive additional points during the scoring phase.

“Match funds” include the following if used for project expenses: (1) “cash in hand” funds; (2) equipment; (3) materials; (4) information technology services; (5) travel; (6) subcontractor costs; (7) contractor/project partner in-kind labor costs; and (8) “advanced practice” costs. Match funding sources include the prime contractor, subcontractors, and pilot testing/demonstration/deployment sites (e.g., test site staff services).

“Match funds” do not include: Energy Commission awards, EPIC funds received from other sources, future/contingent awards from other entities (public or private), the cost or value of the project work site, or the cost or value of structures or other

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improvements affixed to the project work site permanently or for an indefinite period of time (e.g., photovoltaic systems).

Definitions of “match funding” categories are listed below.

o “Cash in hand” Funds means funds that are in the recipient’s possession and are reserved for the proposed project, meaning that they have not been committed for use or pledged as match for any other project. “Cash in hand” funds include funding awards earned or received from other agencies for the proposed technologies or study (but not for the identical work). Proof that the funds exist as cash is required. Cash in hand funds will be considered more favorably than other types of match funding during the scoring phase.

o “Equipment” means an item with a unit cost of at least $5,000 and a useful life of at least one year. Purchasing equipment with match funding is encouraged because there are no disposition requirements at the end of the agreement for such equipment. Typically, grant recipients may continue to use equipment purchased with Energy Commission funds if the use is consistent with the intent of the original agreement.

o “Materials” means tangible project items that cost less than $5,000 and have a useful life of less than one year.

o “Information Technology Services” means the design, development, application, implementation, support, and management of computer-based information systems directly related to the tasks in the Scope of Work. All information technology services in this area must comply with the electronic file format requirements in Subtask 1.1 (Products) of the Scope of Work (Attachment 6).

o “Travel” means all travel required to complete the tasks identified in the Scope of Work. Travel includes in-state and out-of-state travel, and travel to conferences. Use of match funds for out-of-state travel and travel to conferences is encouraged because the Energy Commission might not approve the use of its funds for such travel. Applicants should be aware of all state and shall adhere to travel restrictions of using state funds to travel to certain other states pursuant to AB 1887 (2016) and codified at California Government Code Section 11139.8. Applicants should be aware of all state and shall adhere to travel restrictions of using state funds to travel to certain other states pursuant to AB 1887 (2016) and codified at California Government Code Section 11139.8. All applicants are encouraged to go to the Attorney General’s website https://oag.ca.gov/ab1887 for a current list of states subject to travel restrictions. Grants awarded under this solicitation shall not contain travel paid for with Commission funds (applicants can instead use match funds) to the listed states unless the Commission approves in writing that the trip falls within one of the exceptions under the law.

o “Subcontractor Costs” means all costs incurred by subcontractors for the project, including labor and non-labor costs.

o “Contractor/Project Partner In-Kind Labor Costs” means contractor or project partner labor costs that are not charged to the Energy Commission.

o “’Advanced Practice’ Costs” means costs not charged to the Energy Commission that represent the incremental cost difference between standard and advanced practices, measures, and products used to implement the

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proposed project. For example, if the cost of purchasing and/or installing insulation that meets the applicable building energy efficiency standard is $1/square foot and the cost of more advanced, energy efficient insulation is $3/square foot, the Recipient may count up to $2/square foot as match funds.

Match funds may be spent only during the agreement term, either before or concurrently with EPIC funds. Match funds also must be reported in invoices submitted to the Energy Commission.

All applicants providing match funds must submit commitment letters that: (1) identify the source(s) of the funds; (2) justify the dollar value claimed; (3) provide an unqualified (i.e., without reservation or limitation) commitment that guarantees the availability of the funds for the project; and (4) provide a strategy for replacing the funds if they are significantly reduced or lost. Please see Attachment 11, Commitment and Support Letter Form. Commitment and support letters must be submitted with the application to be considered.

3. Change in Funding AmountAlong with any other rights and remedies available to it, the Energy Commission reserves the right to: Increase or decrease the available funding and the group minimum/maximum award

amounts described in this section. Allocate any additional or unawarded funds to passing applications, in rank order. Reduce funding to an amount deemed appropriate if the budgeted funds do not

provide full funding for agreements. In this event, the Recipient and Commission Agreement Manager will reach agreement on a reduced Scope of Work commensurate with available funding.

F. KEY ACTIVITIES SCHEDULE

Key activities, dates, and times for this solicitation and for agreements resulting from this solicitation are presented below. An addendum will be released if the dates change for activities that appear in bold.

ACTIVITY DATE TIME7 Solicitation Release November 2018Pre-Application Workshop December 2018 TBDDeadline for Written Questions8 TBD 5:00 p.m.Anticipated Distribution of Questions and Answers TBD

Deadline to Submit Applications February 2019 3:00 p.m.Anticipated Notice of Proposed Award Posting Date March 2019Anticipated Energy Commission Business Meeting Date TBDAnticipated Agreement Start Date TBDAnticipated Agreement End Date TBD7 Pacific Standard Time or Pacific Daylight Time, whichever is being observed.

8 This deadline does not apply to non-technical questions (e.g., questions concerning application format requirements or attachment instructions) or to questions that address an ambiguity, conflict, discrepancy, omission, or other error in the solicitation. Such questions may be submitted to the Commission Agreement Officer listed in Section H at any time prior to the application deadline. Please see Section H for additional information.

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G. NOTICE OF PRE-APPLICATION WORKSHOP

Energy Commission staff will hold one Pre-Application Workshop to discuss the solicitation with potential applicants. Participation is optional but encouraged. Applicants may attend the workshop in-person, via the internet (WebEx, see instructions below), or via conference call on the date and at the time and location listed below. Please call (916) 654-4381 or refer to the Energy Commission's website at www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/index.html to confirm the date and time.

Date and time: TBDLocation: California Energy Commission

1516 9th StreetSacramento, CA 95814

H. QUESTIONS

During the solicitation process, direct questions to the Commission Agreement Officer listed below:

TBD, Commission Agreement OfficerCalifornia Energy Commission

1516 Ninth Street, MS-18Sacramento, California 95814

Telephone: (916)FAX: (916) 654-4423

E-mail: TBD

Applicants may ask questions at the Pre-Application Workshop, and may submit written questions via mail, electronic mail, and by FAX. However, all technical questions must be received by the deadline listed in the “Key Activities Schedule” above. Questions received after the deadline may be answered at the Energy Commission's discretion. Non-technical questions (e.g., questions concerning application format requirements or attachment instructions) may be submitted to the Commission Agreement Officer (CAO) at any time prior the application deadline.

A question and answer document will be e-mailed to all parties who attended the Pre-Application Workshop and provided their contact information on the sign-in sheet. The questions and answers will also be posted on the Commission’s website at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/ contracts/index.html.

If an applicant discovers a conflict, discrepancy, omission, or other error in the solicitation at any time prior to the application deadline, the applicant may notify the Energy Commission in writing and request modification or clarification of the solicitation. The Energy Commission, at its discretion will provide modifications or clarifications by either an addendum to the solicitation or by written notice to all entities that requested the solicitation. At its discretion, the Energy Commission may, in addition to any other actions it may choose, re-open the question/answer period to provide all applicants the opportunity to seek any further clarification required.

Any verbal communication with a Commission employee concerning this solicitation is not binding on the State and will in no way alter a specification, term, or condition of the solicitation. Therefore, all communication should be directed in writing to the assigned CAO.

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II. Eligibility RequirementsA. APPLICANT REQUIREMENTS

1. EligibilityThis solicitation is open to all public and private entities and individuals with the exception of local publicly owned electric utilities.9 In accordance with CPUC Decision 12-05-037, funds administered by the Energy Commission may not be used for any purposes associated with local publicly owned electric utility activities.

2. Terms and ConditionsEach grant agreement resulting from this solicitation will include terms and conditions that set forth the recipient’s rights and responsibilities. By signing the Application Form (Attachment 1), each applicant agrees to enter into an agreement with the Energy Commission to conduct the proposed project according to the terms and conditions that correspond to its organization, without negotiation: (1) University of California and California State University terms and conditions; (2) U.S. Department of Energy terms and conditions; or (3) standard terms and conditions. All terms and conditions are located at http://www.energy.ca.gov/research/contractors.html. Failure to agree to the terms and conditions by taking actions such as failing to sign the Application Form or indicating that acceptance is based on modification of the terms will result in rejection of the application. Applicants must read the terms and conditions carefully. The Energy Commission reserves the right to modify the terms and conditions prior to executing grant agreements.

3. California Secretary of State RegistrationAll corporations, limited liability companies (LLCs), limited partnerships (LPs) and limited liability partnerships (LLPs) that conduct intrastate business in California are required to be registered and in good standing with the California Secretary of State prior to its project being recommended for approval at an Energy Commission Business Meeting. If not currently registered with the California Secretary of State, applicants are encouraged to contact the Secretary of State’s Office as soon as possible to avoid potential delays in beginning the proposed project(s) (should the application be successful). For more information, contact the Secretary of State’s Office via its website at www.sos.ca.gov.  Sole proprietors using a fictitious business name must be registered with the appropriate county and provide evidence of registration to the Energy Commission prior to their project being recommended for approval at an Energy Commission Business Meeting.

4. Disadvantaged CommunitiesIn 2012, the Legislature passed Senate Bill 535 (De León) directing that, in addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a quarter of the proceeds from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund must also go to projects that provide a benefit to disadvantaged communities. The legislation gives the California Environmental Protection Agency responsibility for identifying those communities.

For more information on disadvantaged communities and to determine if your project is in a disadvantaged community, use the California Communities Environmental Health Screening tool (CalEnviroScreen 3.0):

9 A local publicly owned electric utility is an entity as defined in California Public Utilities Code section 224.3.

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https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30

While it is not required to complete the project within a disadvantaged community, projects in disadvantaged communities are encouraged and will be considered under the scoring criteria for this GFO.

B. PROJECT REQUIREMENTS

1. Applied Research and Development StageProjects must fall within the “applied research and development” stage, which includes activities that support pre-commercial technologies and approaches that are designed to solve specific problems in the electricity sector. By contrast, the “technology demonstration and deployment” stage involves the installation and operation of pre-commercial technologies or strategies at a scale sufficiently large and in conditions sufficiently reflective of anticipated actual operating environments to enable appraisal of the operational and performance characteristics and the financial risks.10 Applied research and development activities include early, pilot-scale testing activities that are necessary to demonstrate the feasibility of pre-commercial technologies.

2. Project Focusa. Group 1. Building the Next Generation of Wildfire Risk Models for Grid

ResilienceThe Energy Commission expects that the awardee of this solicitation will be an interdisciplinary team with ample collective expertise in the scientific areas identified in this solicitation. It is the intent of the Energy Commission that the research team will have an active Technical Advisory Committee to assist in incorporating the rapidly evolving wildfire science and policy. The core of the project is to develop the next generation of wildfire models at two or more spatial and temporal scales. One of these would be suitable to generate wildfire scenarios for California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment. Contingent upon launch of the Fifth Assessment, the Commission Agreement Manager would hold a critical project review to determine if the agreement should continue for a second phase to run the model(s) to generate the wildfire scenarios and to transfer the technology and knowledge to IOUs. Ideally, the recipient will closely coordinate development of the models at the different scales. The research team must address all of the following topics in the indicated timeframes.

Phase I ($4,000,000)

1) Develop new information and knowledge about fire behavior in extreme weather conditions to inform the next generation of wildfire models to:

a. Develop a process for selecting an optimal configuration of sites for a robust network of meteorological stations across the state that could provide the maximum information about fire risk (especially wind). The network would be designed for wildfire situations with the potential to affect electrical assets including transmission and distribution lines, substations, and power plants. To minimize capital and maintenance costs and bandwidth of data flow, this task should develop a spatial optimization

10 See CPUC “Phase 2” Decision 12-05-037 at pp. 36 and 90, http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/WORD_PDF/FINAL_DECISION/167664.PDF.

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method that would maximally reduce uncertainty about fire risk by designing an optimal configuration of a network of weather stations. This network would complement the stations already installed or planned by the IOUs. Factors to be considered include wind patterns, wildland fuels, access, and proximity of utility assets and other critical assets at risk. Approximate execution time after a grant is in place: 12 months

b. Develop realistic physical renditions of fuel loads and conditions that would exist in the future with the availability of surface load due to tree mortality. This could be done by conducting physical experiments that simulate how these dead surface fuels would burn. This could provide rapid information for parameterizing wildfire models. The Wind Tunnel and Combustion Lab11

at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, for example, might be able to conduct such experiments in collaboration with the grant recipient. 2 years

c. Improve understanding of the relationship of extreme weather conditions and wildfire to improve the forecasting accuracy about future wildfire risk. Analyze historical weather data of every major weather/fire event in the historical record. This should be done in the various fuel types found in the three IOUs—e.g., chaparral, coastal forest, and Sierran conifer forest—since each type represents different fuel and weather patterns. The emphasis would be on wildfires that have damaged the electricity system to find out if patterns may be different in different regions. 2 years

2) Develop computationally efficient fire spread models in relation to electricity assets. Integrate the latest fire science knowledge into near-term (up to 7 days in advance) wildfire analytics (e.g., Fire Potential Index) and risk forecast models (e.g., WRRM or FireMap). Expand existing versions or create new models to incorporate the variation in vegetation and weather conditions across the state. It is critical that fire in the wildland-urban interface area be reasonably represented in these models, because that is where the distribution grid tends to be most vulnerable. Applicants should address the “big data” challenge inherent in the problem, given the terabytes of weather data and the millions of simulations that could be required, especially for scaling up to statewide analysis. Alternative approaches, such as graph theory, may help reduce the computational burdens (Mahmoud and Chulahwat, 2018). The models and analytics should be tested with observational data on past fires. The models and analytics should allow assessment of proposed fuel treatments and identify critical facilities at risk. In addition to near- and long-term forecasts, seasonal forecasts (3-9 months ahead) of wildfire risks could benefit IOUs by allowing them to plan for fire readiness resources. This task will explore the value of such forecasts, compared to near-term (up to 7 days in advance). The forecast model should be computationally efficient so that it could potentially become an operational tool in Cal-Adapt under a potential Phase II of the grant. The researchers should calibrate the model(s) to the types of wildfires that tend to result in damage to the infrastructure owned by IOUs. 3 years

3) Develop long-term (to mid- and late-century) wildfire scenario models for California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment that incorporate new science on tree mortality, wind speed and direction, and fire spread in the WUI. Adapt or develop models using two or more approaches to project wildfire risk to mid- and end-of-century under climate change, including at a minimum area burned and fire

11 https://www.firelab.org/resource/wind-tunnel-and-combustion-lab

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severity. Incorporate new insights from tree mortality studies, and new forecasts of changes in wind regimes (e.g., from Scripps) and vegetation/fuel cover. It is critical that fire in the wildland-urban interface area be reasonably represented in these models, because that is where the distribution grid tends to be most vulnerable. Therefore, the fire modeling should be coupled with a land use/cover change model that includes a low-density residential class for the WUI and a method for applying land use constraints, such as excluding new development in fire hazard severity zones, to investigate adaptation strategies. The various modeling approaches would be compared against historical data as well as satisfying the modeling specifications. The research team will be expected to collaborate with Scripps, which is developing a new hybrid downscaling technique (EPC-16-063), to ensure that future climate projections generate the parameters needed for wildfire modeling for the rest of this century to the degree practical. For example, the IOUs need models that are able to estimate bursts of wind of ~ a few minutes duration. 3 years

Phase II ($1,000,000)

Phase II of this grant would only take place if a Critical Project Review determines that Phase I was successful and if this work is needed to support California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment. The selected team may then be asked to apply their models with the latest downscaled climate data for the assessment.

1) Run long-term wildfire scenario models for California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment that incorporate new science based on the results of Phase I and other related efforts. The project would be guided by the Fifth Assessment planning team to ensure that models meet the requirements of the assessment, including supporting an assessment of the vulnerability of the energy system to wildfire. The project may also be asked to transfer the local fire risk technology to the IOUs and support them in integrating it into their operations. 2 years execution after Phase II is approved.

III. ReferencesDale, Larry, Michael Carnall, Gary Fitts, Sarah Lewis McDonald, Max Wei. (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2018. Assessing the Impact of Wildfires on the California Electricity Grid. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, California Energy Commission. Publication number: CCCA4-CEC-2018-002.

Guzman-Morales, J, A. Gershunov, J. Theiss, H. Li, D. Cayan.2016. Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades. Geophysical Research Letters.

Guzman-Morales, J. 2018. Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Historical Variability and Future Climate Projections. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). University of California San Diego, La Jolla, US.

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Jin, Y., M. L. Goulden, N. Faivre, S. Veraverbeke, F. Sun, A. Hall, M. S. Hand, S. Hook, J. T. Randerson. 2015. Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change. Environmental. Research Letters.

Mahmoud, H. and Chulahwat, A., 2018. Unraveling the complexity of wildland urban interface fires. Scientific Reports, 8(1), p.9315.

Pierce, D. W., J. F. Kalansky, and D. R. Cayan, (Scripps Institution of Oceanography). 2018. Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CCCA4-CEC-2018-006.

Stephens, S.L., Collins, B.M., Fettig, C.J., Finney, M.A., Hoffman, C.M., Knapp, E.E., North, M.P., Safford, H. and Wayman, R.B., 2018. Drought, Tree Mortality, and Wildfire in Forests Adapted to Frequent Fire. BioScience.

Syphard A. D., Sheehan T., Rustigian-Romsos H., Ferschweiler K. 2018. Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter? PLoS ONE 13(8): e0201680.

Westerling, Anthony Leroy. (University of California, Merced). 2018. Wildfire Simulations for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment: Projecting Changes in Extreme Wildfire Events with a Warming Climate. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CCCA4-CEC-2018-014.

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