8/7/2019 República del Perú - Rev 01 - Aug 30th 2010

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República del Perú

8/7/2019 República del Perú - Rev 01 - Aug 30th 2010

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Agenda

Ø Micro Vs Macro

Ø

Ø Why Peru

Ø

Ø Peru – Over viewØBrief summary 

ØEconomy 

ØSalient features

Ø

Ø GDP data analysis

Ø Components of expenditure and analysis

Ø

Ø

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Micro Vs MACRO

& Tactical operationaldecision m aking   belong to  - m icroeconom ic analysis   that  part of econom ics that deals w ith   individualdecision making   in a given 

,   & environm ent of taste technology overalleconom ic structure 

 Strategic decision m aking   require a more   aggregative analysis , at the level of ,        ,    entire industry a broadly defined sector of the econom y the entire econom y 

- even the w orld econom y this belong to   m acroeconom ic analysis - deals with the ,    & behavior of econom ic aggregates their prediction control

& M anagers need good understanding both m icro m acro 

q  Know ledge of m icro enables a m anager to take the firm leveldecisions w hich are  his im m ediate concern 

q

q  Know ledge of m acro enables the m anager to understand the deve lopm ents w ithin & the industry the econom y w hich significa ntly affect the individualfirm s 

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Why PERU

ü

ü ,         %,     In2007thePeruvianeconomyexperiencedagrowthrateof9thelargestin

 ,        .% ;    ,  LatinAmericaandthisrepeatedin2008witha98ratein2006and2007ü

ü,     ,          Howeverwiththecurrentglobalcrisisgrowthfor2009isestimatedtocloseat

.%    08fortheyear

ü  %        Services accountfor53ofPeruvian grossdomesticproductfollowedby

 . % manufacturing223ü

ü        ,   Recenteconomicgrowthhasbeenfuelledbymacroeconomicstabilityimproved

  ,            termsoftradeandrisinginvestmentandconsumption

ü    ,,  In1990the neoliberal governmentended pricecontrols protectionism

   ,      . restrictionson foreigndirectinvestmentandmoststateownershipofcompanies

ü      .%   ;    Theunemploymentratehadincreasedto88byJanuary2009thecurrent      ,  . averagewageinthecountryis1047nuevossoles

ü     .%   %   . Whiletheunemploymentrateis65butonly54areemployedformallyü

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brief summary Ø A country in western

South America. It is borderedon the north by Ecuador  andColombia, on the east by Brazil, on the southeast by Bolivia, on the south by Chile,and on the west by thePacific Ocean.

Ø

Ø A presidential representative democratic republic with amulti-party system.

Ø Is thefourth most populous country in South America. its population is expected toreach approximately 42million in 2050.

I n d e p e n d e n c e :

( 

) 28 July 1821 from Spain 

P o p u l a t i o n :

, ,  (     .) (  29 546 963 July 2010 est  40 ) 

L a n g u a g e s :

( ),   ( )  ,Spanish official Quechua official,Aymara and a large number of minor 

 Amazonian languages 

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SALIENT FEATURESØ  Peru has a  - m arke t oriented econom y   which is 

.the 42nd largest in the w orld C urrency is ( ) ( N uevo Sol PE N internation alstandard 100 

= pen 36 U S$ Ø

Ø  Trade and industries are centralized in Lim a but 

 agriculturalexports have created deve lopm ent 

.    ,in allthe regions A s of2010  G D P   per capita   in  ppp values  ,isalmost US$10 000 

Ø

Ø ,N ot untilthe 19 90s w hen the liberalizing   governm ent ende d   price controls ,

protectionism , restrictionson  foreign direct investm ent ,  and most state 

.ow nership of com panies Ø

Ø  R ecent econom ic grow th has been fuelled by ,m acroeco nom ic stability im proved 

 term s of trade , and risinginvestment and .consum ption Trade is expected to increase 

 due to im plem entation ofa free trade 

.agreem ent w ith the U S signed in 2006 

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 R U A N D G LO B A L C O N N EC TIO N 

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 PER U FA C T SH EET 

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 Years   GDP  deflator 

2000  .153 763 

2001 .155 965 

2002  .156 713 

2003 .

161 021

2004  .170 979 

2005  .176 032 

2006  .188 738 

2007  .192 177 

2008  .194 578 

2009  .197 598 

2010  .202 295 

GDP deflator vs. inflation

.  %O ve r the last 10 years the G D P D eflator has gone up by 4 9 annua 

 Inflation curve  Inflation curve 

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Components of GDP Expenditure

Method Nuevo Sol

Years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP .261 7 .302 3 .335 2 .372 6 .381 7 .417 6

 Privateconsumption

.173 1 .186 6 .206 3 .237 3 250 266

 Government consumption

.26 3 .28 8 .30 1 .33 3 .39 5 .43 3

 Gross fixedinvestment

.47 4 .58 1 .71 3 .95 8 .78 7 .100 3

 Net exports .15 4 .26 2 .21 7 .2 5 .13 6 7

 Domesticdemand

.246 2 276 .313 5 .370 2 .365 8 .410 6

------Private consumption

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rivate and Public investment growth

 

   

  

A

ll

indicatedf

ig 

in

Billi on

Nue vo

Sol

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components of GDP

 All indicated fig in Billion Nuevo Sol

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Components of GDPOrigin of GDP (Ns bn at constant 1994 prices)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP at factor cost 148.6 160.1 174.3 191.5 193.1 206

Agriculture 12.3 13.3 13.7 14.6 15 15.6

Industry 40.8 43.7 48.1 52.8 50.5 55.2

Services 92.5 99.8 108.9 120.1 123.7 131

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Sectoral Contribution to GDP2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Agriculture .6 6 .6 4 .6 1 .5 9 6 .5 8

Industry .31 3 .33 8 .33 8 .33 9 .32 1 33

Services .53 3 .51 2 .51 6 .51 7 .53 2 .52 6

----- Agriculture

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Parameter 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

 Private consumption in constant prices in

 bn NS

.102 9 .109 5 .118 6 129 132 .138 4

 Population in Million .27 9 .28 3 .28 8 .29 2 .29 6 30

 Per capita private consumption in Nuevo

sol

.3688 172 .3869 258 .4118 056 .4417 808 .4459 .4613 333

 Personal disposable income in Billion NS

.157 3 .164 9 .177 2 .198 7 .190 9 .193 7

 Per capita Personal Disposable income in

NS

.5637 993 .5826 855 .6152 778 .6804 795 6449 .6456 667

 MPC .0 868421 .0 739837 .0 483721 - .0 384615385 .2 285714

MPC calculation from PDI

=     /MPC Change in consumption Change in personal disposable Income

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MPC calculation

.Regression analysis was done But the autonomous consumption was found to be negative which might imply that the relationship between consumption and

 income is not linear

 Income in Million Nuevo Sol

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Path ahead

v Analysis of the critical components of the GDP and theindustry and sectoral interplay therein

v Peruvian Central Bank and related policy and regulatory

decisions

v Key Government policies and impact on economicdevelopment

v The Peruvian banking industry and its money market

v Employment in Peru (and related labour policy and impact)

v Organized and unorganized sector  and the shadoweconom

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