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REPUBLIC OF PARAGUAY Investors Presentation
March 2016
2
Disclaimer
THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY OR ON BEHALF OF THE REPUBLIC OF PARAGUAY (THE "REPUBLIC"). THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES OR AN INDUCEMENT TO ENTER
INTO INVESTMENT ACTIVITY. THE TERMS “UNITED STATES” AND “U.S. PERSONS,” WHEN USED IN THIS PRESENTATION, HAVE THE MEANINGS SET FORTH IN REGULATION S UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED . SECURITIES MAY
NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD IN THE UNITED STATES OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OR THE BENEFIT OF U.S. PERSONS ABSENT REGISTRATION OR AN EXEMPTION FROM THE REGISTRATION UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED. THE
REPUBLIC DOES NOT INTEND TO REGISTER ANY POSITION OF THE OFFERING IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO CONDUCT ANY POSSIBLE OFFERING OF THE SECURITIES IN THE UNITED STATES.
THIS PRESENTATION IS SOLELY FOR USE AT THIS ROADSHOW, IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A PROSPECTUS OR OTHER OFFERING CIRCULAR IN WHOLE OR IN PART. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT
CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. NO PART OF THIS PRESENTATION, NOR THE FACT OF ITS DISTRIBUTION, SHOULD FORM THE BASIS OF, OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT
OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, TAX OR OTHER PRODUCT ADVICE. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERTAKE THEIR OWN ASSESSMENT WITH REGARD TO AN INVESTMENT IN THE SECURITIES
AND SHOULD OBTAIN INDEPENDENT ADVICE ON ANY SUCH INVESTMENT’S SUITABILITY, INHERENT RISKS AND MERITS AND ANY TAX, LEGAL AND ACCOUNTING IMPLICATIONS WHICH IT MAY HAVE FOR THEM. BY ATTENDING THE PRESENTATION OR BY
READING THE PRESENTATION SLIDES YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND AS FOLLOWS:
THIS PRESENTATION IS CONFIDENTIAL AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS, AN OFFER OR INVITATION, TO SUBSCRIBE FOR, UNDERWRITE OR OTHERWISE ACQUIRE, OR A RECOMMENDATION
REGARDING, ANY SECURITIES OF THE REPUBLIC NOR SHOULD IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH (I) ANY CONTRACT TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES OF THE REPUBLIC, OR (II) ANY OTHER
CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. ANY PERSON CONSIDERING THE PURCHASE OF ANY SUCH SECURITIES MUST INFORM HIMSELF INDEPENDENTLY BASED SOLELY ON A FINAL OFFERING CIRCULAR BEFORE TAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION.
THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN MADE SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND BACKGROUND FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND MAY BE AMENDED AND SUPPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME AND MAY NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR THE PURPOSE OF ENTERING
INTO ANY TRANSACTION. THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS CONTENTS ARE CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY TO THE REPUBLIC, AND NO PART OF IT OR ITS SUBJECT MATTER MAY BE REPRODUCED, REDISTRIBUTED, PASSED ON, OR THE CONTENTS
OTHERWISE DIVULGED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, TO ANY OTHER PERSON, OR PUBLISHED IN WHOLE OR IN PART FOR ANY PURPOSE WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF THE REPUBLIC. IF THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN ERROR, IT
MUST BE RETURNED IMMEDIATELY TO THE REPUBLIC. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT DIRECTED TO, OR INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION TO, OR USE BY ANY PERSON OR ENTITY THAT IS A CITIZEN OR RESIDENT OR LOCATED IN ANY LOCALITY, STATE, COUNTRY
OR JURISDICTION WHERE SUCH DISTRIBUTION, PUBLICATION, AVAILABILITY OR USE WOULD BE CONTRARY TO LAW OR REGULATION OR WHICH WOULD REQUIRE ANY REGISTRATION OR LICENSING WITHIN SUCH JURISDICTION. THIS PRESENTATION IS
ONLY BEING DIRECTLY PROVIDED TO PERSONS THAT ARE (I) "QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS" AS DEFINED IN RULE 144A UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED ("QIBS") OR (II) PERSONS THAT ARE NOT U.S. PERSONS IN OFFSHORE
TRANSACTIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH REGULATION S UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED. BY ACCEPTING DELIVERY OF THIS PRESENTATION THE RECIPIENT WARRANTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT IT FALLS WITHIN THE CATEGORY OF
PERSONS DESCRIBED UNDER (I) OR (II) ABOVE AND THAT IT WILL NOT COPY, REPRODUCE, PUBLISH, DISTRIBUTE, TRANSMIT OR DISCLOSE THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, INTO THE
UNITED STATES.
THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "EXPECT,” "ANTICIPATE,“ “INTEND," "PLAN,"" ESTIMATE," "EXPECT,“ "PROJECT,” “FORECAST,” “WILL,” “SHOULD,” AND “MAY” AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS AS
WELL AS STATEMENTS OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSE REGARDING FINANCIAL POSITION, STRATEGY, PLANS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC FOR FUTURE
OPERATIONS (INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND OBJECTIVES) IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS
WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REPUBLIC'S ABILITY TO IMPLEMENT AND ACHIEVE THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY POLICIES, BUDGETARY PLANS, FISCAL GUIDELINES AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT BENCHMARKS SET OUT IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS AND WHICH MAY CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE REPUBLIC'S PRESENT AND FUTURE POLICIES AND PLANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE REPUBLIC WILL OPERATE IN THE
FUTURE. FURTHERMORE, CERTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS OR FUTURE EVENTS WHICH MAY NOT PROVE TO BE ACCURATE. THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS PRESENTATION SPEAK ONLY AS OF THE
DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION AND THE REPUBLIC EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW ANY OBLIGATION OR UNDERTAKING TO DISSEMINATE ANY UPDATES OR REVISIONS TO ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
CONTAINED HEREIN TO REFLECT ANY CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANY CHANGE IN EVENTS, CONDITIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES ON WHICH ANY SUCH STATEMENT IS BASED. NOTHING IN THE FOREGOING IS INTENDED OR SHALL
EXCLUDE ANY LIABILITY FOR, OR REMEDY IN RESPECT OF, FRAUDULENT MISREPRESENTATION. THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED. NO REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR UNDERTAKING, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE PRESENTATION AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON IT. INFORMATION OTHER THAN INDICATIVE TERMS (INCLUDING
MARKET DATA AND STATISTICAL INFORMATION) HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES. ALL PROJECTIONS, VALUATIONS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES ARE PROVIDED TO ASSIST THE RECIPIENT IN THE EVALUATION OF MATTERS DESCRIBED
HEREIN. THEY MAY BE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND MAY USE ONE AMONG ALTERNATIVE METHODOLOGIES THAT PRODUCE DIFFERENT RESULTS AND, TO THE EXTENT THEY ARE BASED ON HISTORICAL INFORMATION,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS AN ACCURATE PREDICTION OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. NONE OF THE REPUBLIC, ITS ADVISERS, REPRESENTATIVES, CONNECTED PERSONS OR ANY OTHER PERSON ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER FOR ANY
LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, FROM THIS PRESENTATION OR ITS CONTENTS. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
...And One of the Lowest Leverages in the Region …Supported By The Highest Degree of Openness In The Region…
Solid Track Record and Decoupling from its Closest Neighbours…
A Bright Spot in the Region
3
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay and United States Department of Agriculture (1) As of December 31st, 2015, preliminary data for Paraguay provided by the BCP. EIU estimates as of March 2016 for other countries (2) Measured as (Exports + Imports) / GDP. As of December 31st, 2015, preliminary data for Paraguay provided by the BCP. EIU estimates for 2015 as of March 2016 for countries other than Paraguay (3) As of December 31st, 2015, preliminary data for Paraguay provided by the BCP. EIU estimates for 2015 as of March 2016 for countries other than Paraguay
Economic Openness (2015E; %)(2)
#1
#3 #6
Clean electricity net exporter in South America
Soy crushing capacity in LatAm Beef exporter
Relevant Global Presence Real GDP Growth (2015E; %)(1)
#4 Soy exporter
Public Debt (% of GDP)(3)
17,5% 19,7% 21,0%
31,0% 37,5%
46,2% 47,2%
65,9% 68,6% 75,6%
55,1% 47,4%
38,3% 36,8% 36,1% 32,2%
20,7% 20,3%
4,4%
3,0% 2,9% 2,7% 2,6% 2,1% 1,8%
0,2%
(3.7%)
5.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9% 2.9% 4.4% 1.1%
Real GDP Growth 5 Years Avg.
Median: 2.6%
Median: 37.5% Median: 36.8%
Paraguay
Asunción
Investment Highlights
4
Resilient Economy to Adverse Conditions Proved Through Sustained
Growth, a Strong Export Sector and Capacity to Buffer External Shocks
Positive Economic Performance has Resulted in
Improved International Perception and Favorable Foreign Investment
Prudent Fiscal Balance and Institutional Framework
Committed to Infrastructure Improvements
Across the Country and Key Sectors
Balanced Debt Profile and Low Rollover Risk
Sound Monetary Policy Supported by an Adequately Capitalized and
Expanding Financial Sector
Improving Social Indicators Backed by Social Policies
Firm Commitment to Enhance Governance Standards
2 1
3
6
4
5
7
8
Resilient Economy to Adverse Conditions Proved Through Sustained Growth, a Strong Export
Sector and Capacity to Buffer External Shocks
Resilient Economy to Adverse Conditions….
6
1
Despite Steadily Declining Commodity Prices… …Paraguay Maintains a Positive Trade Balance...
…A Relatively Stable Currency... ...And Lowest in the Region Inflationary Levels
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay and EIU
(1) Source: IMF commodity prices (2) Preliminary data for Paraguay and EIU estimates as of March 2016 for countries other than Paraguay (3) Source: Bloomberg
Median: (1.3%)
Trade Balance (2015E; % of GDP)(2)
Inflation (2015E; %)(2)
USD/Tn2 (1)
1,8% 1,8% 1,0% 0,6%
(1,3%) (1,9%) (2,1%) (2,2%)
(4,7%)
Median: (1.3%)
3,1% 3,5% 4,3% 4,4% 4,4% 6,8%
9,3% 10,7%
26,4%
90
31
76 76 62
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Meat Crude Oil - WTI Aluminum Soybean Soybean Oil
Median: 4.4% 21,6% 24,5% 50,3% 51,4%
65,3%
138,3%
225,9%
5 Year - Foreign Exchange Devaluation(3)
Average: 82.5%
Agriculture 19%
Manufacturing 11%
Livestock 5%
Construction 4%
Other Goods 1%
Commerce 15%
Government 9%
Household 5%
Communications 4%
Transportation 4%
Other Services 9%
Binationals 9%
Taxes 6%
…Proved Through Sustained Growth…
7
1
Significant Track Record of Economic Expansion…
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, and World Bank (1) Growth ranking excludes Government (9.5% average 5 year growth) (2) As of Jan-14. Source: Comisión de Integración Energética Regional
2,1 (11,5)
27,5
6,8 3,4 5,9 6,1
8,6
6,0 3,2
7,1 4,8
0,3
(9,0) (0,3)
3,0
(0,3)
6,9
6,0
3,8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Goods Sector Service Sector Binationals Taxes on Products
Real GDP growth breakdown by sector contribution (%)
...And Attractive Competitive Advantages...
Item
Energy Cost (US$/MWh)(2) 55 117 53 116
VAT Tax 10% 25% 21% 19%
Income Tax 10% 28% 35% 40%
Avg. Monthly Salary (US$)(3) 1,097 720 1,162 1,056
Population aged 20-34(4) 26% 25% 23% 23%
...Supported by a Gradually Diversified Economy... 2015 Real GDP Breakdown by Segment (%)
Goods Sector Service Sector
4.3
(1.2)
14.0
4.7 3.0
...Strong Growth Across Diverse Sectors of the Economy
12,5%
8,7% 8,0% 7,5% 7,0% 6,4% 6,3% 5,5%
4,5%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
Fina
nce
Agric
ultu
re
Com
mun
icat
ions
Elec
tric
ity &
Wat
er
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Cons
truc
tion
Rest
aura
nts
& H
otel
s
Hou
seho
ld S
ervi
ces
Man
ufac
turin
g
Average 5-year Growth (%)(1)
(3) Sources: Paraguay: EPH 2014, Brazil: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografie e Estatistica (Dec-14); Argentina: Ministerio de Trabajo, Empleo y Seguridad Social (Dec-14); Chile: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (Dec-14). All figures converted from local currency to US$ at Dec-14 official average exchange rate
(4) As of 2013 for Paraguay, and Oct-15 for other countries
…A Strong Export Sector…
8
1
...With Consistent Positive Surplus Over the Last 5 Years…
…And an Increasingly Diversified Export Matrix
One of the Strongest Trade Balances in the Region…
Soy beans 30%
Electricity 29%
Meat 10%
Cereal 8%
Flour 5%
Vegetable Oils 3%
Wood 1%
Other 14% Soy beans
19%
Electricity 25%
Meat 14%
Cereals 9%
Flour 11%
Vegetable Oils 5%
Wood 1%
Other 16%
Total Exports: US$7.8bn 30.9% of GDP
Total Exports: US$8.4bn 30.2% of GDP
2011(2) 2015(2)
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay and Central Bank of Paraguay (1) Preliminary data for Paraguay and EIU estimates as of March 2016 for countries other than Paraguay (2) Excludes re-exports of US$4.9bn and US$2.6bn in 2011 and 2015, respectively
12,6 11,6 13,6 13,1 10,9
(11,8) (11,1) (11,9) (12,1) (10,3)
(15,0)
(10,0)
(5,0)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exports Imports
US$bn
Trade Balance
0.8 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.6
Trade Balance (2015E; % of GDP)(1)
1,8% 1,8% 1,0% 0,6%
(1,3%) (1,9%) (2,1%) (2,2%)
(4,7%)
Median: (1.3%)
… And Capacity to Buffer External Shocks
9
1
...With Low Levels of Balance of Payment Deficit...
…Sustained Foreign Currency Inflows from Binationals …
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay and Central Bank of Paraguay, EIU (1) Regional Peers Average includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay. Source: EIU estimates as of March 2016 for countries other than Paraguay (2) Includes errors and omissions
387 553 604 572
611
229
233 183 125 108
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Itaipú Yacyretá
Income from Binational (US$ mm)
616
786 787 697
0,1 (0,5)
0,5
(0,1) (0,5)
0,5 0,9 0,1
1.7
0,2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Current Account Capital and Financial Account
US$bn Balance of Payments (2) 0.8 (0.0) 1.0 1.1 (0.5)
719
… And a Significant Cushion Provided by International Reserves
5,0 5,0 5,9
6,9 6,2
19,8% 20,2% 20,3%
22,5% 22,4%
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
International Reserves
Below Regional Average Current Account Deficit...
IR (US$bn) IR as % of GDP
(1)
Current Account (% of GDP)
0,4%
(2,0%)
1,7%
0,3%
(1,8%) (1,3%) (1,3%)
(2,2%) (2,6%)
(3,5%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Paraguay Regional Peers Average
Positive Economic Performance has Resulted in Improved International Perception and
Favorable Foreign Investment
Solid Upward Trend in Credit Ratings
Positive Economic Performance has Resulted in Improved International Perception…
11
2
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15
Moody's S&P Fitch
B3/B-
B2/B
B1/B+
Ba3/BB-
Ba2/BB
Ba1/BB+
Baa3/BBB-
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, Fitch Ratings, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (1) Based on LT Foreign Currency Debt; A securities rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to revision or withdrawal at any time
(1) (1) (1)
Favorable Credit Rating Agency Perceptions
Baa2/BBB Paraguay is one of the few Latin American countries with an overall
optimistic outlook for 2016, based on:
“There are ongoing positive developments in the realm of diversification, particularly as they relate to developing the maquila industry, raising the value-added of agriculture products, and upgrading infrastructure. Fiscal metrics are favorable compared to both Ba and Baa peer medians, and recent efforts to contain current spending will create room for capital and infrastructure spending to boost potential growth…”
-Moody’s, 25 Sep-15
“Paraguay has shown increasing resilience to negative economic trends in the region… expectation for prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, continuous support for greater economic institutionalization (for example, in the debt management office), and gradual improvements in economic diversification that could increasingly limit Paraguay's vulnerability to external shocks.”
-S&P, 16 Jun-15
“Paraguay has demonstrated improved capacity to manage external shocks without destabilizing effects for external accounts or macroeconomic stability. Adequate international reserves, increased exchange rate flexibility and improved credibility of monetary policy allow Paraguay to absorb multiple external pressures…”
-Fitch, 27 Jan-16
Top Regional Rating Improvement
Dec-10 Mar-16 Notches Upgraded
S&P Moody's Fitch S&P Moody's Fitch S&P Moody's Fitch
B B1 NR BB Ba1 BB 3 3 -
BB+ Ba1 BB+ BBB Baa2 BBB 2 2 2
BBB- Baa3 BBB- BB Ba2 BB+ (2) (2) (1)
BBB- Baa3 BBB- BBB+ A3 BBB+ 2 3 2
B- Caa3 B- B B3 B 1 3 1
12
…And Favorable Foreign Investment
Track Record of Foreign Direct Investment Flows…
557
738
72
346 368
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5 year total of US$2.1bn
Annual FDI Flows (US$mm)
(1)
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, Doing Business Organization of World Bank Group (1) Decrease is mainly explained by larger remittances of profits and amounts of loan payments (2) World Bank Doing Business Indicator as of June 2015
Ease of Doing Business Indicators(2)
48 50 54
92 100
116 117 121
157
…Supported by Positive Business Environment Indicators...
2
Committed to Infrastructure Improvements Across the Country and Key Sectors
…Partially Funded Through International Offerings … …And a Clear Framework for New Projects
Committed to Infrastructure Improvements…
14
3
PPP Law
Law designed to encourage public-private associations for infrastructure projects
₋ Private participants selection is held by a competitive procedure such as a public tender
The program requires a concession contract per project with specific terms and conditions
Each project will require a special purpose vehicle and shareholders will have to comply with equity contributions and structuring of financing, among other
585
652
679
738 720
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Acquisition of Non-Financial Assets (US$mm)
Source: Central Bank of Paraguay and Ministry of Finance (1) Source: Ministry of Finance as of February 29th, 2016
Successful Implementation of Public Investments…
Infrastructure 43%
Debt Repayment
30%
Energy 18%
Cement Industry
4% Social
Welfare 3%
Other 2%
94% of total net proceeds from international bond issuances have already been deployed ₋ 61% of deployed funds
have been used to improve Paraguay’s infrastructure and energy sectors
Use of Funds by Purpose(1) (%)
Total Net Proceeds: US$1.7bn
Historically, Paraguay’s infrastructure projects were funded with its own resources
However, recent regulatory initiatives, such as the PPP Law, have been implemented to increase private sector participation in public works projects
…Across the Country and Key Sectors
15
Size US$430 mm
Description
Double carriageway over a 143km segment from Road 2 (Ypacaraí) to Road 7 (Km 183)
Includes construction of 5 ring roads, 3 viaducts and a crossroad Awarded contract includes design, construction, financing and operation
for a 30 year period
3
Highway Roads 2 & 7
Size US$150 mm
Description
Silvio Petirossi is Paraguay’s largest airport in terms of activity and connections
Construction of a new 40,000km2 passenger terminal and a 78,000km2
platform Passenger traffic is expected to reach ~3mm passengers / year once
works are completed
Awarded contract includes design, construction, financing and operation for a 30 year period
Stage Master Plan soon to be started in association with US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Description
Currently, navigation between Asunción and Apa River is restricted from Oct – Feb due to poor dredging and maintenance
Size, financing and timing considerations to be confirmed, based on Master Plan’s output and recommendations
Project includes dredging, signage, beaconing and electronic navigation chart
Design will be environmentally-friendly Hydroway will also decrease risk of flooding
Road 7
Road 2 Asunción
Ciudad del Este
Segment 1 672 Km
Segment 2 603 Km
Segment 3 537 Km
Segment 4 1.940 Km
Segment 5 590 Km
Segment 6 420 Km
BOLIVIA BRASIL
URUGUAY
ARGENTINA
PARAGUAY ASUNCIÓN
São Paulo
Pto. Murtinho M.C. Peralta
Resistencia
Santa Fe
Rosario
Rio
Para
guay
Asunción
Waterway
Silvio Pettirossi Airport
Main Infrastructure Projects
Prudent Fiscal Balance and Institutional Framework
3,3%
1,0% 0,7% 1,3%
0,9% 1,0%
(1,7%) (1,7%) (1,1%)
(0,5%)
(3,0%)
(2,0%)
(1,0%)
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Balance (Excl. Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets) Balance
Prudent Fiscal Balance and Institutional Framework
17
4
…Have Resulted in a Flexible Central Government Balance in Compliance With Regulatory Limits(1)
Stable Tax Revenue Policies…
% of GDP
7,5% 9,4% 9,1% 8,8% 9,2%
4,3%
5,6% 5,1% 5,2% 5,8% 2,9%
3,0% 2,3% 2,6%
2,6% 14,7%
18,0% 16,5% 16,6%
17,6%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Wages & Salaries Grants / Social Benefits Other
Source: Central Bank of Paraguay and Ministry of Finance (1) For 2015 overall balance’s limit was set at (1.5%) of GDP, excluding infrastructure expenditures by international bond issuances
Expenditures Breakdown (% of GDP)
(1.3%)
Infrastructure Expenditures Financed by International Bond Issuances
12,6% 12,7% 11,8% 12,7% 12,6%
5,4% 6,3% 5,3% 5,2% 5,9%
18,0% 19,0%
17,1% 17,9% 18,5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tax Revenues Non-Tax Revenues
Revenues Breakdown (% of GDP)
…And Central Government Expenditure Levels…
(0.8%)
(1.8%)
Balanced Debt Profile and Low Rollover Risk
Balanced Debt Profile And Low Rollover Risk
19
5
… Comfortable Public External Debt Maturity Profile… …And Diversified Funding Sources
190 180 167 163 128
3.167
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+ Bilateral
6%
Bonds 47%
Banks 1%
IADB 27%
World Bank 11%
Other 8%
Multilateral 46%
Source: Central Bank of Paraguay and Ministry of Finance
Maturing Debt by Year (US$mm) Public sector external debt by creditor (as of Dec-15)
...And a One of the Lowest Leverages in the Region Public Debt (% of GDP)(2)
17,5% 19,7% 21,0%
31,0% 37,5%
46,2% 47,2%
65,9% 68,6%
Median: 37.5%
Conservative External Debt Composition...
Fixed 65%
Variable 35%
USD 93%
JPY 5%
Others 2%
External debt currency aligned with USD exports
By Currency By Interest Rate Type
Large percentage of debt with fixed interest rates
Sound Monetary Policy Supported by an Adequately Capitalized and
Expanding Financial Sector
8,1%
6,1% 6,0% 6,2% 6,2%
3,2% 2,1% 2,3% 2,0%
3,1%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 IRM Real Interest Rate
Sound Monetary Policy….
21
… With Low Domestic Interest Rates…
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, United States Department of Agriculture (1) Nominal Interest rate is the IRM; Real interest rate estimated as IRM less inflation
6
Controlled Inflationary Levels...
Current inflation target band: 4.5% +/- 2.0% Nominal and Real Interest Rates(1) (%)
21,6% 24,5% 50,3% 51,4%
65,3%
138,3%
225,9%
5 Year - Foreign Exchange Devaluation(3)
4.9%
End of Year :
4.0% 3.7% 4.2% 3.1%
Average: 82.5%
…And a Strong Foreign Exchange Policy
Target
Inflation
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5%
(3) Variation of local foreign currency vs. US dollar between December 31st, 2010 and 2015 (4) Basket of main US trading partners. Source: Bloomberg
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Feb-16
...Supported by an Adequately Capitalized and Expanding Financial Sector
22
6
Growth Potential from Further Credit Expansion
… On the Back of a Healthy and Efficient System… ...With Solid Capital Ratios
Source: Central Bank of Paraguay and Ministry of Finance (1) Efficiency ratio calculated as Operating Expenses/Total Assets (2) Capital adequacy ratio calculated as Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets
Consistent Growth and Profitability Over the Years… Loans Evolution (US$bn) and Return on Equity (%)
14,6% 15,2% 16,2%
15,2% 16,2%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,0% 1,8%
2,5%
1,8%
2,5%
30,9% 32,5%
43,1%
32,5%
43,1%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NPLs/Total Loans Efficiency ratio
9 10
13 15 16
0
5
10
15
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ROE (%) 29.4% 28.3% 27.8% 28.3% 27.8%
NPLs/Total Loans and Efficiency Ratio (%)(1) Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)(2)
Credit to Private Sector (% of GDP)
15,7%
20,1% 20,7% 23,0%
28,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$bn
Improving Social Indicators Backed by Social Policies
…And Poverty and Inequality Indices
Improving Social Indicators Backed by Social Policies
24 Source: Central Bank of Paraguay, Ministry of Finance, Social Progress Imperative Organization
7
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Poverty Headcount Ratio (% of total population) GINI Coefficient (%), RHS
… With Inflation Levels Below Minimum Wage Increases... Controlled Unemployment…
8,7%
4,4% 5,0%
6,9%
3,6% 4,9%
4,0% 3,7% 4,2%
3,1%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Wage Increase Inflation
5,6% 4,9% 5,0%
6,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Firm Commitment To Enhance Governance Standards
Firm Commitment To Enhance Governance Standards
26
8
...Leading to a Positive International Reputation
Paraguay adheres to Article IV of IMF Standards for Data Dissemination
IMF’s press release regarding its 2016 mission to Paraguay in Feb-16 stated:
“The authorities are moving forward with welcome reforms
to enhance financial supervision (…) With the introduction
and implementation of the Law of Free Access to Public
Information, the authorities have begun to establish much
greater transparency in public processes to increase public
accountability and strengthen governance. This is an
important step to improve the quality of institutions in
Paraguay on a lasting basis.”
Source: Transparency Organization, Ministry of Finance and IMF
Evidenced Commitment To Transparency…
By strengthening the rule of law and decreasing corruption levels, Paraguay aims to improve its business environment conditions
Freedom of Access Information Law
Anti-Money Laundering Policies
Regulated Licensing and Registration Requirements
…Reflected in Improving Anti-Corruption Indicators…
20
11
4 3
0 0
(2) (3)
(7)
Transparency International Corruption Ranking (Ranking improvement 2015 vs. 2014)