RESTR -CTE D

RETU'Ut ) FILE t Report No. TO-631a

REPORTS DE SKc yWITHIN

ONE W

This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations.They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report maynot be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

APPRAISAL OF A

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

KENYA

May 28, 1968

Projects Department

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K E N Y A

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Table of Contents

Page

SUMMARY i - ii

1. INTRODUCTION 1

2. BACKGROUND 2

A. General 2B. Transportation 2C. Road Transport 3D. Transport Coordination 4

3. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR 5

A. The Highway System 5B. The Roads Branch of the Ministry of Works 5C. Highway Planning and Financing 6De Road Development Program, 1966/70 7E. Highway Engineering 7F. Highway Construction 8G. Highway Maintenance 8

4. THE PROJECT 9

A. General Description 9B. The Trunk Roads 9C. The Replacement of Ten Single-Lane Bridges 11D. The Engineering of Trunk Roads 12E. The Engineering of Secondary/Feeder Roads 12F. The YLOW Staff Training Scheme 12G. Cost Estimate and Foreign Exchange Component 13H. Project Execution and Financing 15

5. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION 17

A. Road Works to be Financed Under the Project 17B. The Replacement of Ten Single-Lane Bridges 21C. Road Works to be Engineered under the Project 21

6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 21

(Continued)

This report is based on the findings of an Appraisal Mission comprisingMessrs. Young (engineer), Bickers (economist), and Malone (engineer) whichvisited Kenya in June 1967.

TABLES

1. Length of Roads, 1957 to 19662. Estimated Number of Motor Vehicles, 1955 to 19653. Central Government Highway Expenditures and Receipts from

Road User Taxation, 1959 to 19664. Highway Design Standards5. Trunk Roads to be reconstructed under the Project6. Single-lane bridges to be replaced7. Schedule of Secondary/Feeder Roads to be Engineered under

the Project8. Cost Estimate9e Savings in Vehicle Operating Costs Resulting from Road

Improvements

CHART: Organization of the Ministry of Works

MAP: KENYA: Highway System

K E N Y-A

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHRAY PROJECT

SUMMARY

i. The Government of Kenya has asked the Association to assist inthe financing of a highway project comprising: (i) part of the 1967/70trunk road reconstruction program; (ii) the engineering of some secondary/feeder roads; and (iii) a Staff Training Scheme.

ii. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$16.2 millionequivalent. The Government has requested the Association to finance theforeign exchange element of the project, estimated at US$10.7 millionequivalent; the balance of the financing would be met from the nationalbudget.

iii. This would be the fifth loan/credit associated with roads inKenya, and the second for the primary and secondary road network. In1960 a loan of US$5.6 million (256-KE) was made which included US$2.6million for the construction of highways and roads in areas of high agri-cultural potential. In 1964, a credit of US$4.5 million (70-KE) was madefor the reconstruction of highways and bridges. Tne construction underthe loan is complete and that under the credit is substantially completed.In addition, two credits have been made for roads directly related toagricultural programs. In 1965, a credit (77-KE) was made for roads intea growing areas, and in 1967 a credit (104-KE) was made for roads insugar growing areas. The quality of the work carried out under theseprojects and the performace of the Ministry of Works (MOW) as theexecuting agency has, in general, been satisfactory.

iv. The roads to be reconstructed under the proposed project areall part of the trunk road system and the reconstruction comprises theimprovement of 285 miles of roads and the replacement of 10 single-lanebridges by two-lane structures. The design of all the construction workhas been completed; about 80 percent was carried out by consultants andthe remainder by the MOW. The supervision of reconstruction of the roadsis to be carried out by consultants, and that of the bridges by the MOW.Most of the work is scheduled to be carried out by contracts awarded onthe basis of international competitive bidding.

v. The remainder of the project covers the detailed engineering ofsome 266 miles of secondary/feeder roads, scheduled for construction ina later program, and the support of a Staff Training Scheme within theMinistry of Works designed to train Kenyans who, for the first time, arefilling senior executive positions in the Ministry.

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vi. The project has been well prepared and is technically sound. Theinvestment in the reconstruction of the trunk roads is amply justifiedin terms of the benefits accruing to road users; the rate of return on theinvestment for individual roads ranges from 15 percent to 25 percent, withan average for all trunk roads considered under the project of 18 percent.The detailed engineering of the secondary/feeder roads included in theproject is justified on the grounds of present and projected traffic andthe level of agriculture in the areas which they penetrate. The StaffTraining Scheme is an investment in sound management and institution-building within the MOW, which is essential if the maximum benefits ofBank/IDA support for road schemes in Kenya are to be obtained.

vii. The project provides a suitable basis for a credit of US$10.7million equivalent to the Government of Kenya.

K E N Y A

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

1. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Government of Kenya has requested a credit from the Inter-national Development Association (IDA) for the financing of a projectcomprising about two-fifths of the country's 1967/70 trunk road program,the detailed engineering of secondary/feeder roads scheduled for con-struction in a later program, and a Staff Training Scheme for the Ministryof Works (MOW). The cost of the project is estimated at US$16.2 millionequivalent, and the Government is requesting a credit from the Associationto meet the foreign exchange component, estimated at US$10.7 millionequivalent.

1.02 This would be the fifth loan/credit associated with roads inKenya, and the second for the primary and secondary road network. In1960, the Bank made a loan of US$5.6 million equivalent (256-KE) for thedevelopment of agriculture in areas of high potential; the reconstructionof some of the roads in these areas was included in that project. In1964L, the Association made a credit (70-KE) of US$4.5 million equivalentfor the engineering, construction and improvement of about 200 miles ofhighways. In 1965, a credit (77-KE) of US$3.0 million equivalent wasmade for the improvement of about 900 miles of roads in tea growing areas,and in May 1967, a further credit (104-KE) was made for the design,engineering, and construction of about 270 miles of main,feeder, and fieldaccess roads in the sugar growing areas of western Kenya and for theengineering of a further 250 miles of these roads, In transportationother than roads, Kenya has benefited with Tanzania and Uganda from loansmade to the East African Common Services Authority, in 1955 (llO-EA) andin 1965 (428-EA), for the development of equipment and facilities operatedby East African Railways and Harbors Administration.

1.03 Road construction under Loan 256-KE was completed in 1964.Work under Credit 70-KE has progressed well, despite some difficultieswith contractors, and is substantially completo. Constructionof the tea roads (Credit 77-KE) is about 75 percent complete and of thesugar roads (Credit 104-KE) about 25 percent complete. Some of the earth-works and culvert works under Loan 256-KE were unsatisfactory and at theinsistence of the Bank the MOW initiated corrective measures. Theexecution of the later projects and the performance of the MOW as executingagency have been, on the whole, satisfactory.

1.04 This proposed project places emphasis again on the highways ofthe country, and the greater part of the project is concerned with im-provements to the trunk road network. Included in the project is the furtherimprovement, from gravel to a paved standard, of two roads which wereimproved initially under Loan 256-KE, and of a further two roads improvedunder Credit 70-KE. The traffic growth on these four roads has beenparticularly rapid and paving is now warranted.

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1.05 The project was initiated by the Government of Kenya in cooperation1with the Bank's Pemanent Mission in Easterm Africa. It is consonant with

the economic development of the country, and the timing and composition aredesigned to maintain an even flow of highway work in all stages fromengineering to construction.

1.06 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal missioncomprising Messrs. Young (engineer), Bickers (economist), and Malone(engineer) which visited Kenya in June 1967. Completion of the appraisalreport required further discussions with the Govermment on the specificcontent of the project.

2. BACKGROUMD

A. General

2.01 The Republic of Kenya has a total area of 225,000 square miles,about the same size as France. Although it lies on the equator, variationsin altitude provide a wide range of climatic conditions. More than halfthe country, in the north and east, is arid and sparsely populated. Themost attractive areas for settlement are along the coast and on the high-lands in the south-west between Mount Kenya and Lake Victoria, where morethan half the total population of 10 million lives in 20 percent of thecountry's total area.

2.02 The economy is based on agriculture, much of which remains on asubsistence basis, Agriculture accounted for about 40 percent of totalGDP in 1966, and subsistence activities alone for more than half of thiscontribution. Manufacturing industry accounted for 11 percent of GDP;although local industry has expanded considerably in the past few years,a large proportion of manufactured goods is still imported. Agriculturalproducts provide roughly three-quarters of the country's visible exports.Another major source of foreign exchange is the tourist industry whichhas been growing rapidly. The number of foreign visitors increased by18 percent p.a. between 1960 and 1965, and by over 30 percent in 1966.

2.03 Kenya's GDP showed an average annual growth rate of about 4.5percent (at constant prices) between 1961 and 1966; but the popultionhas been increasing by 3 percent p.a. and per capita income is still only

about US$100. The economic situation in Kenya has been reviewed exten-sively in recent Bank reports, particularly in Volume II of "Prospectsfor Economic Development in East Africa" dated August 1967.

B. Transportation

2.04 The heaviest concentration of inland transport facilities andtraffic is on the 600-mile route from the port of Mombasa to Kenya'swestern border with Uganda, passing through Nairobi and the populoussouth-western area of the country (see Map). This route is served by road,rail and air services; but for imports and exports through Mombasa, andindeed for all other long-distance bulk movements, the railway is by far

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the most important carrier. It provides the principal outlet to the seafor Kenya and Uganda and, to some extent, for Northern Tanzania and evenRwanda and the north-eastern part of the Congo. This rail route, withthe subsidiary lines feeding into it, comprises 1,000 miles in Kenya,which are part of the 3,600-mile system of the East African Railways andHarbours Administration. The joint ownership and operation of this under-taking as a common service by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda will not beaffected by the creation of separate corporations for railways and harbors,as institutions of the Epst African Community,

2.05 The East African Airways Corporation, also owmed jointly by thethree countries, operates international services to Western Europe, WestAfrica, the Middle and Far East, and to neighboring countries, as wqell asinternal services. A number of international airlines call at NairobiAirport, which serves as the major long-distance air terminal for EastAfrica. Passenger traffic has been increasing by more than 10 percentannually.

2.06 Kenya's road system consists of about 3,900 miles of trunkroads, 6,600 miles of secondary roads, and some 15,500 miles of minorroads, many of which are no more than tracks. Of the total network,amountingto 26,000 miles, about 1,300 miles are already paved. The expansion of thehighway system over the past ten years is shown in Table 1.

C. Road Transport

2.07 Preliminary results of a study by the UeK. Road Research Labora-tory (RRL) suggest that 50 percent of total vehicle-miles take place onthe trunk roads, which represent only about 15 percent of the total roadmileage; a further 40 percent is on secondary roads, which include 25 per-cent of the total road mileage, and 10 percent is on minor roads, whichcomprise 60 percent of the total road system.

2.O8 Official statistics of licensed motor vehicles are consideredby the RRL to have consistently understated the true total since 1960.This is due partly to mistakes in compilation but mainly to the failureto include the numerous "pirate" taxis and goods vehicles operatingillegally. According to the RRL, the total number of vehicles operated in1965 amounted to some 105,000, of which 54,000 were automobiles (Table 2).This total implies an average increase of about 6 percent p.a. since 1960compared with an average of 8 percent p.a. during the previous five years.The slower growth is, to a large extent, attributed to the departure ofmany non-Africans following the announcement of independence in 1961.As a result of an increasing momentum in Kenya's economic development,the RRL believes that the rate of growth has already shown signs ofaccelerating and may reach 10 percent p.a. by 1970. This seems to beoptimistic, but much depends on the extent to which the present stringentregulations on commercial vehicle operations will be relaxed (seeparas. 2.12 and 2.13).

2.09 Although reliable data are not available, it appears that theaverage size of trucks has been increasing and that, in the future, ahigher proportion of trucks will be of more than 5 tons capacity. Thiscould lead to substantial reduction in the competitive cost of shippinggoods by road. It is also an important factor in considering futuredesign standards for the principal roads; in particular, the 18-ft pavingcurrently provided on some of the main trunk roads may well prove to beinadequate in the near future. (The adequacy of highway design standardsis further discussed in para. 3.13).

2.10 Until 1963, specific taxes paid by road vehicle operators wereearmarked for road expenditure but since then this has been financed bythe Government from general funds. In 1966, about t 6.7 million wascollected from fuel taxes and license fees. In addition there was afurther E 2.8 million from import tariffs on vehicles, spares, etc., thoughpart of this might be considered as general revenue rather than asproceeds specifically from road user taxation.

2.11 Even if all import duties on vehicles, parts, tires, etc., areexcluded, receipts fran fuel taxes and license fees alone have, onaverage, exceeded total highway expenditures in each year over the pasteight years, and by about 40 percent in total over this period (Table 3).The 1967/68 Budget included a 7 percent increase in the tax on gasoline.Taking this into account, as well as the effect of continued expansionin highway traffic, it is expected that receipts will1 continue to exceedhighway expenditures in spite of the heavy program of road constructionenvisaged over the next few years (see para. 3.11)

De Transport Co-ordination

2.12 Commercial road transport in Kenya is subject to considerableregulation and restriction, the prime object of which has been to protectthe "differential tariff" of the railway. The railway is still requiredto maintain tariffs traditionally based on the value of the cargo, charginglow rates on commodities such as agricultural exports, and high rates onimported goods etc. without regard to differences in the costs of carryingthe particular commodity. The regulation of road transport is designed toprotect the railway's ability to cross-subsidize traffic in this fashionwhich it would be difficult to do if road transport were free to competefor the profitable traffic. The situation has been discussed in detailin previous Bank reports (most recently in the Annex on Transport to"Prospects for Economic Development in East Africa", Volume II). It iscomplicated by the fact that profitable traffic on the main railway lineto Mombasa is undoubtedly subsidizing operations on other sections of therailway, including lines in Tanzania and Uganda.

2.13 Restrictions on road transport take the form of stringentlicensing regulations, which determine the number of vehicles to beoperated, the traffic to be carried, the routes to be served, etc. TheTransport Licensing Ordinance also specifically provides that where an

adequate railway service is provided, licenses for the carriage of goodsby road shall normally be granted for distances of not more than 30 miles.However, there appears to be widespread violation of these regulations.

2.14 The UNDP, with the Bank as executing agent, is financing acomprehensive study by The Economist Intelligence Unit of transportpolicies and pricing in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The object is torecommend measures to coordinate the use and development of the variousmodes of surface transport in,aidbetween the three countries. Among thequestions to be considered are the effects of the licensing regulationsapplying to road vehicles, the appropriate type and level of road usercharges in relation to public expenditure on the roads, and the consequencesof the present pricing structure of the railways. The study began inOctober 1967, and is to be completed by the end of 1968.

3. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR

A. The Highway System

3.01 The MOW groups highways under three headings: trunk, secondary,and unclassified. Trunk roads are the main national highways, secondaryroads are the main district roads and unclassified roads comprise allother roads and tracks. This grouping is used primarily to define thefinancial and executive procedures involved in the construction and main-tenance of the system.

3.02 In addition to the above classification, the MOW considershighways from other viewpoints, one of which is the "type" of the highway.Highway type is an indication of geometric characteristics, such asgradient and carriageway width, and varies from a Type I highway, which isnormally reserved for major trunk routes and which requires a carriagewaywidth of 20 - 22 ft through to a Type IV highway, reserved for minor roads,and which requires a carriageway of 12 - 16 ft. Types II and III form agradation of geometric characteristics between these extremes.

3.03 The bulk of the roads comprising the national network as wellas those considered in this project lie to the south and west of MountKenya; this is the area of heaviest rainfall and highest altitude in thecountry.

B. The Roads Branch of the Ministry of Works

3.04 The Roads Branch is responsible for the design, constructionand maintenance of the main roads in the country's highway system. It isone of several branches of the MOW, the more important of the others beingthe Mechanical Engineering Branch, the Electrical Branch, the MaterialsBranch, the Structures Branch, the Quantity Surveying Branch, and theprovincial engineering organization* All branches, and the provincialengineering organization, report directly to the Engineer-in-Chief who isthe chief executive of the 1D'LIV; (see Chart). The chief executive of theRoads Branch is the Chief Engineer (Roads).

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3.05 As a result of this organization of the MOW, certain functionsrelated to road design are not under the direct control of the ChiefEngineer (Roads). For example, bridge design is carried out in theStructures Branch (which has other responsibilities apart from roads);the design and quality control of departmental work are carried out bythe Materials Branch (which also has other commitments unrelated to roads).Although such a "horizontal" organization may not be ideal from theviewpoint of the Roads Branch, it appears to be suited to the size of theoperations and works effectively.

3.06 The most urgent problem in the Roads Branch, and in otherbranches of the MCJ, is the staffing situation at management level due tothe departure of expatriates with long service. It is possible that thesedepartures will cause a substantial reduction in the quality of managementin the Ministry over the next few years if action is not taken to strengthenthis important function. A Staff Training Scheme is, therefore, proposedas one of the items in the project; (see para. 4.16).

3.07 The technical standards of the Roads Branch during the trans-ition period from a department staffed largely with expatriates to onestaffed wholly with experienced Kenyans seem assured by the continuationin service of some competent engineers, both Kenyan and expatriate, in themiddle levels of the Branch. In particular the latter is currently wellserved by engineers provided under Norwegian Technical Aid. Furthermore,continuity of good technical standards is provided by consulting engineersused by the MOW for work which is beyond departmental capacity.

C. Highway Planning and Financing

3.08 The Ministry of Economic Development and Planning is responsiblefor deciding the overall size of the highway program; in the exercise ofthis responsibility the Ministry works closely with the Treasury and MOW.The MOW (in effect the Roads Branch) is responsible for decisions onindividual projects taking into account the views of other Ministries,of the Central Road Authority and of the provincial and local councils.The Central Road Authority is an advisory, non-technical body whosemembers are nominated by Government to represent various elements ofpublic opinion. The projects finally decided upon by the Ministry ofWorks are eventually incorporated into the National Development Plan. Asomewhat different procedure is adopted in the case of "captive" roadsassociated primarily with specific development programs of other Ministries,such as the sugar and tea roads of the Ministry of Agriculture, the touristroads of the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife, etc. Such roads aresponsored directly by the Ministries concerned, and the Roads Branch isinvolved only with the technical aspects of design and construction.

3.09 The executive and financial responsibility for the constructionof trunk roads is vested in the Government. The responsibility for second-ary roads is vested in local authorities (County Councils) although inpractice the authorities receive some financial assistance for secondary

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road construction from Government. The responsibility for all other roadsis vested in the local authorities, and the whole cost of constructionand improvement is met by them from local revenues.

3.10 During the past few years the Government has looked to externalsources for the financing of new construction. External finance for thispurpose during the period 1959-66 totalled about US$35 million equivalent;of this about US$10 million (30 percent) was made available by the Bank/IDA,about US$7 million (20 percent) by the British Government, about US$3.5million (10 percent) by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germanyand the remainder by contractor finance. Funds for the Government'scontribution to the capital costs and for road maintenance costs areprovided from budgetary sources.

D. Road Development Program 1966/70

3.11 The targets for road development established in the 1966/70Development Plan envisage an increase of about 600 miles, or 50 percent,in non-urban paved road, and proportionate increases in the mileagesof gravel and earth roads. Trunk road reconstruction in the proposedproject together with that being financed under Credit 70-KE account forrather more than half of the total trunk road element of the 1966/70Development Plan. Trunk road development within the Plan but notfinanced by IDA includes: (i) reconstruction of lengths of the maintrunk road from the Tanzanian border, at Namanga, to the Ugandan border,at Tororo, (ii) reconstruction of the Nairobi-Mombasa road, and (iii) re-construction of the road from Northern Kenya to the EthLiopian border. Inaddition to this trunk road program, there is a program of about the sameestimated cost embracing secondary roads and roads related to tea andsugar development, and roads in tourist areas.

E. Highway Engineering

3.12 The philosophy of highway design in Kenya has been to useminimum acceptable standards so that as large a mileage of roads aspossible may be obtained from the available funds. The result has beenthe construction of modest roads devoid of any element of over design.

3.13 Highway design standards used by the MOW (Table 4) aregenerally acceptable, with the possible exception of that for pavementwidth. The trend in Kenya is to the use of larger vehicles and of vehicleswith trailers, and for such traffic an 18-foot-wide pavement, frequentlyadopted in the past, makes for dangerous driving and costly shouldermaintenance.

3.14 About 60 percent of the trunk road ileage to be reconstructedunder the project will be suitable for a carriageway width of 20 ft.(Type IIA Tables 4 & 5). Of the remaining mileage half has already been

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engineered to accept an 18-foot pavement and built to a gravel standard;this is now to be paved under the project and in these circumstances itis not practicable to pave wider than 18 feet. The remainder, 55 miles,has been engineered and will be constructed to Type II standard (18-footwide pavement); this standard is acceptable on the sections concerned inview of nature of the projected traffic. 'The MOW is now inclining to theview that major roads should have a carriageway width of at least 20 ft,and has given an assurance that this will be the rule in all futuredesign.

3.15 Some highway design is carried out in the Roads Branch; moderntechniques are used and the standard of technical expertise is, generally,good. However, the Branch has not the capacity to design the wholehighway program and design work which it cannot conveniently undertakeis placed with 3 or 4 finms of consulting engineers with offices in Nairobi.

F. Highway Construction

3.16 Highway construction is carried out by small and medium-sizedKenyan firms which are mainly owned and directed by Asians, by the largeEuropean contracting firms with branches or subsidiaries in East Africa,and by departmental forces. Some work is also being carried out by theNational Youth Service - notably part of the road from Northern Kenya toEthiopia - while very minor capital works are carried out by local councils.Contract work is on a unit price basis, contracts being awarded afterinternational competitive bidding. The qualification and bidding pro-cedures of the MOW, its handling of contracts and its dealings with con-tractors are considered satisfactory.

3.17 The MOW has built up its own construction force partly to beless dependent on the contracting industry, if the latter's rates becomeexcessive, and partly to do work which cannot economically be put tocontract. Currently, the MOW has two road construction units, the largerof which is working well on the Nairobi-Mombasa road.

G. Highway Maintenance

3.18 The Government finances maintenance of trunk and secondaryroads from its recurrent budget; in general allocations have been adequateand have kept pace with the expansion of the highway system. Localcouncils finance the maintenance of all other roads from local revenues.Normally, maintenance of the trunk road 0ystem is carried out by the MOWand that of all other roads by local councils.

3.19 The Government is obligated, under previous Bank/IDA projects,to maintain the public road system adequately. In general, maintenance isreasonably satisfactory although on the basis of spot checks, the rainyseason appears to strain the maintenance forces, particularly in copingwith unpaved roads. Furthermore, in the past year or so, the upkeep ofsome secondary and minor roads has suffered because of ineffective localcouncils.

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3.20 To improve the standard of maintenance on all roads, a separatemaintenance section has recently been established within the Roads Branch.

This section is under the direction of an expatriate Senior SuperintendingEngineer and is organized to oversee both the maintenance carried out bythe M4inistry's own forces and that of the councils. This is obviously astep in the right direction. During negotiations, the Goverrment reiteratedits intention adequately to maintain the road system in accordance withthe earlier obdigaticns to the Bank/IDA.

4. THE PROJECT

A. General Description

4.01 The project comprises:

(i) the reconstruction of 11 sections of trunk roads totalingabout 285 miles in length, of which 265 miles are to bepaved and the remainder gravelled;

(ii) the replacement of 10 single-lane bridges by 2-lanestructures;

(iii) tho detailed engineering and supervision of constructionunder (i), and (ii);

(iv) the detailed engineering of approximately 266 miJes ofsecondary/feeder roads;

(v) a training scheme designed to maintain the efficiency ofmanagement in the MOW.

4.02 The purpose of the project is three-fold:

(i) to improve parts of the trunk road system by reconstruction,generally to a paved standard, and by replacement ofsingle-lane bridges which are either dangerously sited orstructurally deficient, or both;

(ii) to prepare the detailed design of secondary/feeder roadsscheduled for construction in a later program;

(iii) to strengthen the management and planning functions of theMOW weakened by the departure of experienced expatriates.

4.03 The project works include paving of some roads reconstructedunder Loan 256-KE and Credit 70-KE. Although traffic growth ratessuggest that some of this paving may have been justified earlier, theGovernment had deferred consideration of paving until this time tospread the available capital as widely as possible in the transportationand other sectors of the economy.

B. The Trunk Roads (Table 5 and Map)

(i) Malindi-Kilifi (No. 1 - 38 miles) and Kibaoni-Mtwapa (No. 2 -17 miles)

4.04 The coast of Kenya has considerable tourist attractions;Malindi

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70 miles north of the main port of Mombasa is a flourishing resort, and inbetween there are numerous other smaller resorts. In addition, sisal isgrown on a large scale in the coastal area north of Mombasa. The existingroad is located within a mile or so of the coast on low lying land whichis interspersed with occasional outcrops of coral.

4.05 The project envisages the improvement of the existing coastroad by the paving of 38 miles of gravel road (constructed under Credit 70-KE)and the widening of 17 miles of single-lane bitumen road to double-lane.The road between Mombasa and Malindi would then be paved to full widthfor its entire length.

4.o6 After completion of the project works the only major obstacleto rapid movement along this north coast road would be the ferry acrossKilifi Creek, roughly midway between Mombasa and Malindi. This ferry isoperated by the MOW; at present the service is inadequate but it is beingimproved by the provision of more suitable engines for the ferries. Afurther improvement in the ferry service is possible in the short term bythe addition of extra craft. Recognizing that there may well be seriouscongestion at the ferry in years to come, the MOW has already made pre-liminary studies for a bridge crossing. Further investigations are inprogress and the MOW is awaiting the outcome before formulating plansfor a long-term solution.

(ii) Timau-Meru (No. 3 - 41 miles); Embu-Ena (No. 4 - 8 miles);and Kutus-Kerugoya No.5 - 6 miles)

4.07 These three roads are located in the vicinity of Mount Kenya.Timau and Meru are on the north side of the mountain where the land isused for large scale ranching and for land settlement. In addition, thearea is becoming increasingly popular because of its game parks. Travelbetween these towns is difficult at best, and the existi.ng tack becomesimpassable at times in the wet season. The project envisages an all-weather road linking the two towns on a new alignment which would crossthe northern slopes of the mountain entailing moderately heavy earthworks,and rise in places to an altitude of more than 8,000 ft. A spur road, partof which would be to a gravel standard, will be constructed from the pro-posed Timau-Meru road to replace an existing connection which leads offthe present track and provides the main road access to northern Kenya.

h.o8 Of the two roads on the south side of the mountain, one (Embu-Ena) is part of the ring road around Mount Kenya and it would be con-structed to bituminous standard to accord with plans for the furtheranceof the development of the eastern slopes. The other (Kutus-Kerugoya)was reconstructed to gravel standard under Loan 256-KE, is now heavilytrafficked and leads to tea growing areas, the roads of which are beingdeveloped under Credit 77-KE.

(iii) Ahero-Nyakoe (No. 6 - 50 miles). Wanjare-Kamagambo (No. 7 -10 miles); Kamagambo-Suna (No. - 26 miles)

4.09 The Ahero-Nyakoe road forms part of the main road linking Kisumu

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with the important agricultural center of Kisii. The two other roadsare continuations of this road southwards from Kisii towards the borderof Tanzania. The roads traverse hilly country in an area in which naturalroad building materials can be obtained without great difficulty. Thework envisaged on the Ahero-Nyakoe road is the paving of an existingfully-engineered road, constructed to gravel standards under Credit 70-KE;this would complete an all-weather link between Kisumu and Kisii. Cn thetwro lengths south of Kisii, the project provides for the raising of theexisting gravel track to a fully engineered paved road0

(iv) Eldoret-Kapsabet (No. 9 - 26 miles); Kakamega-Broderick Falls(No. 10-26 miles)

4.10 The Eldoret-Kapsabet road is a gravel road, part of which wasconstructed under Loan 256-KE. It passes through rolling country in thehighly developed and densely populated Nandi Hills, and forms part of thetrunk road between Kisumu and Eldoret, two of the most important centersin western Kenya. The project envisages the paving of this road on theexisting alignment. The Kakamega-Broderick Falls road is part of the trunkroad from Kisumu northwards towards Kitale and northern Kenya. This roadis currently no more than an improved track; current and projected trafficmerit the reconstruction of this road immediately to a fully engineeredpaved standard.

(v) Msambweni-Lunga Lunga (No. 11 - 35 miles)

4.11 This is part of the coastal road leading from a point 40 milessouth of Mombasa to the border with Tanzania. The 35-mile length selectedfor improvement falls into 3 sections: a) N4sambweni-Ramisi - 10 miles;b) Ramisi-Mrima - 10 miles; and c) Mrima - Lunga Lunga - 15 miles.Section (a) is a single-lane paved road the coral base of which has failed.Under the project, this length would be reconstructed to a two-lane pave-ment with a new base. Section (b) is no more than a track across a low-lying area of heavy black soil, in which sugar cane is grown on a largescale for processing in the factory at Ramisi. The project envisages anembanlanent across this area and the provision of a two-lane paved road.The pavement is required because of the poor nature of the soil and alsobecause of the heavy local traffic generated by the sugar estates.Section (c) lies in low hills and the road is no more than a primitivetrack; the project provides for this section to be raised to a fullyengineered gravel standard,

C. The Replacement of Ten Single-Lane Bridges (Table 6 and Map)

4.12 The Government has been encouraged in previous projects toreplace short single-lane bridges on trunk routes by two-lane structures,since single-lane bridges on otherwise two-lane carriageways are dangerous.The replacement of ten such bridges is included in the project and wouldensure that the trunk routes concerned would then be free of such hazards.The replacement of some of these ten existing bridges is additionally

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desirable because the structures are deficient and the sites are subjectto flooding. In nine of the ten locations, the project provides for thereplacement of the existing bridge by a two-lane structure on a new andsatisfactory alignment with new approaches to tie in with the existingroad. In the remaining case, (Sagana), as the present alignment issatisfactory and the foundations are adequate, the project provides onlyfor the widening of the existing bridge to accommodate a two-lanecarriageway.

D. The Engineering of Trunk Roads

4.13 The design standards adopted for each of the trunk roads areset out in Tables 4 & 5 . These standards are, in general, satisfactory,the exception being that for pavement width, which for some of the roadsis considered the minimum acceptable standard, (see para. 3.13). The workproposed on all of the 11 trunk roads has been fully engineered. In thosecases where the proposed construction involves the surfacing of a roadwhich has an acceptable alignment, the engineering has been limited to adetailed pavement design, including a survey of local road-buildingmaterial. In all other cases the engineering has involved detailedtopographic survey, supported by aerial photograplhy and photogrammetry,as well as a complete pavement design and material evaluation. On two ofthe roads, engineering has been done by the MOW; on the remainder byconsultants. The cost of engineering is included in the project.

E. The Engineering of Secondary/Feeder Roads (Table 7 and Map)

4.14 The roles of trunk roads, secondary roads and feeder roads arecomplementary, and in the development of a national highway system it isimportant to maintain a balanced development between all classes of road.The MOW is now planning the next road program, and proposes to includesecondary/feeder road construction in it. To that end the detailedengineering of 14 such roads is included in the project.

4.15 The Roads Branch has investigated the economic justification ofthe reconstruction envisaged for each of the selected secondary/feederroads and although the investigation was necessarily based on somewhatapproximate values of costs and benefits, these together with the magnitudeof current traffic on the roads provide a suitable basis for proceedingwith their detailed engineering at this time. (See para. 5.15).

F. The MOW Staff Training Scheme

4.16 The Training Scheme was developed by the MOW with the cooperationof the Baik's Permanent Mission in Eastern Africa. The need for such ascheme was foreseen a year or so ago when the MOW was confronted with thelikelihood that the majority of its senior expatriate staff would soonterminate their services. The Bank/IDA, in view of the sizeable contri-bution which they are making to highway construction in Kenya, clearlyhave a direct interest in the efficient working of the MOW. The proposed

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IDA participation (approximately US$0.3 million) may be considered as aninvestment in management and the strengthening of development institutions,and should be viewed in relation to future disbursements, under theexisting and proposed credits, of about US$17 million equivalent over thenext 3 or 4 years.

4.17 The Scheme would provide supernumerary appointments for sevenkey positions to be filled for four years with experienced expatriates,acceptable to the Association, on a contract basis. The expatriates wouldadvise the Kenyan officials filling the key positions who would thus havethe bonefit of expatriate experience while running their own departments -a form of "on-the-job" training. Four of the positions in the Scheme arein the Roads Branch - two connected with planning, one with survey, onewith maintenance; two are in support of key positions in the MaterialsBranch and the remaining one is in the Mechanical Engineering Branch. Allthe positions are concerned, directly or indirectly, with the design,construction or maintenance of the country's road system. The organiza-tion of the MOW in outline, and as it relates to these supernumerarypositions, is given in the Chart. Arrangements are already in hand tofill five of the positions in the Scheme.

G. Cost Estimate and Foreign Exchange Component

4.18 The cost of the project including allowance for contingenciesis estimated at US$16.2 million equivalent with a foreign exchangecomponent estimated at US$10.7 million. The major items are shown below,(details are given in Table 8):

(Please see the following page)

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(US$ million Equrivalent)

Local Foreign Total CostCurrency Exchange Estimate

(i) Reconstruction of 11 lengthsof trunk road 3.96 7.70 11.66

(ii) Replacement of 10 single-lane bridges 0.18 0.34 0.52

(iii) Design and supervision of(i) and (ii)- Design 0.19 0.36 0.55- Supervision 0.26 0.50 0.76

(iv) Detailed Engineering ofSecondary/Feeder Roads 0.17 0.33 0.50

(v) Training Scheme 0.14 0.28 0.42

4.90 9.51 14.41Contingencies

- Physical (7%) 0.34 o.66 1.00- Price Escalation (5%) 0.25 0.48 0.73

5.49 10.65 16.14

Say, 10.7 Say, 16.2

4.19 Bids have been received and awards made for about 85 percent ofthe trunk road and bridge reconstruction, and for this work the acceptedbids have been used in the cost estimates. For the remainder of thereconstruction, costs have been estimated by applying unit rates, derivedfrom contracts for road construction carried out in 1965, to the schedulesof quantities obtained fraa detailed engineering, allowance being made forthe price escalation since that date. Detailed engineering for TrunkRoads Nos. 9 and 10 and for the bridge replacement was carried out by theMOW, that for the remainder of the trunk roads by consulting engineers,Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners (Great Britain), and Edwards and Burrow(Kenya), (ee Table 5).

4.20 The costs of design and supervision carried out by consultantshave each been assessed at about 6 percent of construction cost, based oncurrent experience in Kenya. The costs of design and supervision carriedout departmentally have each been notionally assessed at 4.5 percentof construction cost.

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4.21 The cost of the detailed engineering of the secondary/feederroads has been taken as a percentage of the estimated construction cost,this latter being based on average costs per mile in various types ofterrain. This method of estimating the cost of detailed engineering ofthe secondary/feeder roads is considered adequate at this stage of theproject.

4.22 The cost of the Training Scheme has been taken as the cost toGovermment of the salaries and allowances for the 7 supernumerary appoint-ments envisaged under the Scheme, after deduction of taxation.

4.23 A contingency allowance of 7 percent has been included forpossible quantity increases. In view of the detailed engineering carriedout for the reconstruction of the trunk roads and the replacement of thebridges, this is considered sufficient. A further contingency allowanceof 5 percent has been included for possible price increases during theconstruction period; current experience in Kenya indicates that thisallowance is adequate.

4.24 The foreign exchange component of the construction work has beenassessed at 65 percent, of design and supervision at 70 percent, and ofthe Training Scheme at 65 percent (based on the assessed foreign exchangeelement of the expatriates' salaries and allowances); this results in aforeign exchange component for the project as a whole of about 66 percent.This figure may be compared with the corresponding figures for the lasttwo road projects in Kenya, 70 percent (for Credit 77-KE) and 68 percent(for Credit 10h-KE). Fuel, equipment depreciation, bitumen, cement,management overheads and profit are the principal foreign exchange items.

H. Project Execution and Financing

4e25 The proposed replacement of bridges and reconstruction oftrunk roads (with the exception of that on Trunk Roads Nos. 1 and 2 andof earthworks in the approaches to the ten bridges) will be executed bycontracts let under international competitive bidding in accordance withstandard Bank/IDA procedures. The reconstruction of Trunk Roads Nos. 1and 2 has been negotiated as an extension to an existing contract asexplained in the next paragraph. The volume of earthworks in the approachesto the bridges is considered too small to warrant execution by contractand these earthworks will be carried out departmentally. The reconstructionon the trunk roads will be supervised by consultants (see Table 5) andthe replacement of the bridges by the MOW.

4.26 The Malindi-Kilifi road (Trunk Road No. 1) was completed to agravel standard under Credit 70-KE. In 1966 the MOW reported to theAssociation that traffic on this road was increasing more quickly than hadbeen anticipated and that paving would be justified. The MOW suggestedthat this paving and also the widening of the length Kibaoni-Mtwapa(Trunk Road No. 2) could economically be carried out as an extension to thecontract, awarded under Credit 70-KE, for the Malindi-Kilifi section, and

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requested the Association's assistance in financing the work under thisproposed project. The Association indicated that favorable considerationwould be given and the MOW immediately negotiated with the contractor an

extension of the contract, to cover the proposed works on Trunk RoadsNos. 1 & 2. -Construction commenced on these works in 1967 and is expectedto be completed by mid-1968. The NOW achieves substantial savings byarranging for these project works to be carried out as an extension to anexisting contract, and was justified in doing so,

4.27 The work on the other trunk roads has been grouped, as far aspossible, to provide contracts large enough to attract internationalcompetitive bidding. The work on Trunk Roads Nos. 3, 4, and 5 was

tendered with the option of bidding for the roads either individually oras a group; it was awarded as a single contract for the three roads to acontractor acceptable to the Association. The reconstruction of TrunkRoads Nos. 6, 7, and 8 and Trunk Road Nos. 9 and 10, has been dealt withand awarded on the same basis. Trunk Road No. 11, because of its geo-graphical isolation, will be treated as a separate contract. The bridgereplacements are also being bid in convenient groups, but because ofthe relatively small size this work is expected to be taken by localcontractors.

4.28 The detailed engineering of 6 of the 14 secondary/feeder roadsis being carried out by consultants, Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners(Great Britain), Edwards and Burrow (Kenya), and East African EngineeringConsultants (Kenya), the remainder by MOW (see Table 7). Highwlay designcarried out departmentally is generally good (para 3.15), and there havebeen no major problems on this aspect in previous Bank/IDA projects.

4.29 The Government has requested the Association to finance theforeign exchange element of the project, estimated at US$10.7 millionequivalent. It is the Government's intention to finance local currencycosts from the national budget.

4.30 Retroactive financing by the Association of approximatelyUS$1,105,000 equivalent (about 10 percent of the proposed credit) isrecommended; this amount represents the estimated foreign exchangecomponent of payments for project works since December 1, 1966. Approxi-mately 15 percent of that amount relates to engineering of the proposedtrunk road reconstruction, 70 percent to the construction and supervisionof work on Trunlk Roads Nos. 1 and 2 (see para. ).26) and the remainderto the engineering of the secondary/feeder roads, for the constructionof which the Government proposes to submit a project this year.

4.31 Annual requirements of foreign currency, based on the MOW'sschedule of engineering and construction, would be as follows:

1968 1969 1970 1971 TOTAL

Amount (US$ million) 3.5 3.8 2.9 05 10.7

The disbursement shown against 1971 is to meet the requirements of theTraining Scheme and of residual payments against construction and supervision.

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4.32 The foreign exchange component for the project as a whole is abolut66 percent (para.. 4.24). Credit funds should therefore be disbursed on thebasis of 66 percent of (i) actual paymenits to contractors for civil works(ii) actual payments to consultants for engineering and supervision; (iii)assessed cost of departmental engineering and supervision; and (iv) thecost to Government net of taxes of the proposed Staff Training Scheme. Anysavings in funds provided under the proposed credit should be cancelled.

5. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION

A. Road Works to be Financed Under the Project

5eOl The econormic benefits of the project arise principally in theform of reduced operating costs for vehicles, due to improvements in roadsurfaces and design standards generally (See Table 9). On some of the roadsthere will be additional savings because of shorter travel distances re-sulting from improved alignments and, in some cases, a reduction in futureoutlays on road maintenance. The economic rates of return calculated foreach road section are based on savings arising from these sources. Theytake into account the normal increases in traffic expected without the roadimprovements, as well as new traffic expected to be induced as a consequenceof the improvementse The benefits yield returns-ranging from 15 percent to25 percent for individual sections over a twenty-year life, with a weightedaverage of 18 percent overall. It is concluded that the proposed works, bothindividually and as a whole, are amply justified.

Traffic Forecasts

5.02 Regular traffic counts were made annually in Kenya between 1952and 1961, but were subsequently suspended as an economy measure and replacedby limited lad hoct studies. Recently, however, regular counts have beenreintroduced, and supplemented by a traffic census designed by the RRL withcounts taken at 60 points. For the country as a whole, the RRL expects thenumber of road vehicles to increase in future by some 9 percent or 10 percentp.as Although this may be a little optimistic, it appears that the normalgrowth of traffic on the trunk road system, of which the project roads are apart, is likely to be faster than this. In general, the evidence availablefrom traffic counts on the project roads also suggests faster than averagegrowth rates, but it is insufficient to give a clear picture of specifictrends on each of the roads.

5.03 As a conservative estimate, therefore, normal traffic growth ratesof no more than 9 percent p,a. have been assumed for each of the projectroads in the first five years after completion. In subsequent years thesehave been reduced to 5 percent p.a. or less to reflect the greater uncertain-ties of forecasting in the more distant future. In addition, induced increasesin traffic varying between 10 percent and 25 percent of the normal traffichave been assumed, as a direct result of the Toad improvements, in each of thefirst two years after completion of the project works, with increases restrict-thereafter to the normal rate of traffic growth. In the light of evidencepresented by the Roads Branch on the effect of earlier highway improvements:these assumpticas are considered reasonable.

Calculation of Economic Benefits

504h Malindi-Kilifi (No. 1 - 3 i ad Kibaonit taa (No. 2 - 17miles): The rapid expansion of Kenya's tourist industry in recent yearshas been particularly evident in the coastal area between Mombasa and

Jalindi. In addition to tourists arriving via scheduled liners and cruiseships calling at Mombasa, both resorts are served by frequent air servicesfrom Nairobi* The two road sections, Yalindi-Kilifi and Kibaoni-Ntwapa,are part of the important coastal link between Mblindi and Mombasa. The-connecting section, between Kibaoni and-Kilifi wras paved under Credit 70-KE.The project includes paving the Malindi-Kilifi-section, which was re-constructed to gravel standard under Credit 70-KE, and widening the Kibaoni--Mtwapa section from single to two-lane bitumen standard. A return of 22 per.cent is calculated for paving the Nalindi-Kilifi section, due to therelatively low cost of providing the pavement as an extension to the presentwork of reconstruction (para. 4.26). For the reconstruction as a wholeon this section, including the works under Credit 70-KE, the return isestimated to be 18 percent. A return of 16 percent is expected from wideningthe Kibaoni-Mtwapa Section, and the average return is 20 percent from thecombined works on this road included in the project0

5.05 Timau-Iyeru (No. 3 - 41 miles): To the north-east of Mount Kenya,the town of Meru is the center of an already prosperous area rich inagricultural potential. Meru is also a focal point for movements betweenthe extensive but arid north and north-east of Kenya and the more populousand wealthy areas to the south. In this part of the country, the highwaysprovide virtually the only means of transport, and development dependsessentially on the trunk roads leading southwards from Meru. Among thealternative highway routes available, the road passing to the west ofMount Kenya has substantial advantages over the two routes on the easternside of the mountain (see para. 5.06). The western route is already bitumen-paved for nearly 120 of the 160 miles between Yeru and Nairobi; it passesthrough more densely populated areas and towns en route, and it rovides accessto a much closer rail-head, less than 60 miles from Mern at Nanyuki. However,the unpaved 41-mile section from the outskirts of Meru to Timau is still inbad condition, poorly aligned and at times imnassable. The case far a newalignment for this section further up the slopes of Mount Kenya is verystrong. It will provide a shorter, all-weather connection to Meru and thesurrounding areas, and the bitumen-surfacing will mean completion of a pavedroad for the full distance from Moru to Nairobi, wJhich is likely to provideconsiderable impetus to development of the regions north of Mount Kenya0Taking into account the savings in vehicle operating costs resulting fromthe shorter route as well as from the improved road standards, a return of15 percent is estimated for the proposed works, in spite of the relativelyhigh costs that the works unavoidably involve.

5.o6 Embu-Ena:(No. 4 - 8 miles): The trunk route from Nairobi to Meruthat passes around the eastern side of the mountain is already paved as far

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as Embu; it is now proposed to extend the paving a further eight milesfim Embu to Eha. On this section, the traffic is already more than 300 vpd,but north of Eha it divides into two roads, the "old" and "new" routesto Meru, neither of which carries sufficient traffic to justify paving beyondEna at the present time. Some of the present through-traffic on this roadis likely to be diverted to the trunk road passing to the west of Mount Kenya,when paving of this alternative route is completed throughout its length(see para. 5.5). On the other hand, it is also proposed eventually toreconstruct part of the old Ena-Meru road, the engineering for which isincluded for -financing in this project (see para. 5.15 below). This shouldhave a significant effect on traffic passing on to the Embu-Ena section,while in addition, the new route from Ena to Meru is already encouragingappreciable flows of intermediate traffic from the country opened up alongits alignment. On balance, therefore, the general development of theseareas to the east of Mount Kenya is likely to mean quite satisfactorygrowth rates over the Embu-Ena section in the future. A return of 18 percentis calculated from its proposed paving.

5.07 Kutus-Kerugoya (No. 5 - 6 miles) This short stretch of road wasreconstructed to gravel standards in 1960, under a previous Bank Loan (256_;CE).Since then its traffic has increased by an average of 15 percent p.a. and nowamounts to about 400 vpd. It servres a prosperous agricultural area in thefoothills of Mount Kenya, connecting with a paved trunk road that provideseasy access to Nairobi some 65 miles away. There is good reason to expectfurther substantial increases in traffic on the road in future. The proposedsurfacing is estimated to offer a 19 percent rate of return.

5.08 Ahero-Nyakoe (No. 6 - 50 miles): This is one of the three roadsections in the project forming parts of the route from Kisumu, via Kisiiand Kamagambo, to the south-western border with Tanzania. This section,linking the prosperous Kisii farming area writh the railhead and administrativecenter at Kisumu, has shown a steady traffic growth of 12 percent p.a.throughout the past decade. Present traffic amounts to 370 vpd, half ofwhich are heavy commercial vehicles. Adjacent road sections to the northfrom Ahero, and southwards from Nyakoe, are already paved. The proposedimprovement of this section from gravel to bitumen standards is essentialto accommodate traffic increases in the next five years, and is calculatedto yield a return of 22 percent. This high estimate is due in part to therelatively low cost of providing paving on the existing engineered gravelroad constructed under Credit 70-KE.

5.09 Wanjare-Kamagambo (No. 7 - 10 miles): The road running southwardsfrom Nyakoe is at present bitumen-surfaced only as far as Wanjare, but it isnow intended to reconstruct and pave the next 10 miles to Kamagambo, a townat the intersection of several minor roads serving an area with considerableagricultural potential. Traffic over this section already amounts to some320 vpd, and is likely to be stimulated in future by the proposed improve-ments to other lengthy sections of the route northwards and southwardsfrom Kamagambo, as well as by the reconstruction of the section itself. Areturn of 15 percent is expected from this investment.

5.10 Kamagambo,-Suna (No. 8 - 28 miles): The road south of Kamagambocontinues to the southen border of Kenya and provides access to north-western Tanzania, though at present the international traffic amounts only

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to some 30 vpd. Between Kamagambo and Suna the road serves principally tolink the local agricultural communities with the markets further north.The Government proposed that this section be reconstructed to gravel standardsand that paving be delayed for a few years. Traffic in excess of 300 vpdis expected by 1970 when the works would be ccmnpleted which, in view of thesavings in vehicle operating costs to be expected, would be sufficient towarrant paving by that time. There would also be a saving in the totalcost of reconstruction by paving at this stage compared with pavingseparately in say five years' tirne. The estimated overall return on theinvestment if paving were included in the reconstruction is 17 percentcompared with 14 percent if the road were to be reconstructed to gravelstandards and paved after five years. The return on the additional invest-ment in paving at this time is estimated at 25 percent. It is concludedthat the extra initial outlay on paving would be amply justified and theproject, therefore, includes for reconstruction of this section to a pavedstandard.

5fl1 Eldoret-Kapsabet (No. 9 - 26 miles): Traffic on this road variesfrom over 1,200 vpd in the vicinity of Eldoret to no more than 300 vpd in thecenter section, rising again to about 400 vpd on the approaches to Kapsabet.Local movements along the road clearly account for much of the traffic,particularly to and from the railhead and markets at Eldoret. However, muchof the road that continues westwards from Kapsabet to Kisumu has recently beenreconstructed, and improvement of the only poor section remaining, which isbeing financed by a previous IDA credit (70oKE), is now virtually completed.As a result substantial increases are already likely in through trafficbetween Eldoret and Kisumu, the two largest towns in this area of Kenya. Inthe proposed project, the provision of bituminous paving between Eldoret andKapsabet will provide a further stimulus to such traffic as well as to localmovements. A return of 25 percent is expected from this proposal, reflectingthe relatively low costs of paving on the existing wcll-engineered alignment,as well as the substantial traffic passing on the road.

5el2 KakaneaB-Eroderick Falls_5O 10-26 mi3es) The trunk road fromKisumu to Broderick Falls is already paved as far as Kakamega, but the last26 miles of this route are still in pocr ccnditions and inadeq-uate for thepresent traffic of 350 vpd. As in the case of the Kamagambo-SSma road(para. 5.10) the Government proposed to reconstruct this section to gravelbtandards, but here again reconstruction to a paved standard would be eco-nomically justified becanse of the le-val of traffic expected loy the timethe work would be completed in J.970. Reconstruction to a paved standard isexpected to yield a retlain of 20 percent on the investment cop,ared w-ith 17percent on the overall investment in reconstructing to gravel standard3 at thistime and paving after, say 5 years. The return on the additio:aaJ. investmentin paving at this tine is esthmiated at 27 percent. It is con D-Puded that theextra initial outlay on paving wosuld be amply justified and the project,there.fcre, includes for reconstruction of this section to a pDtved standard.

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5.13 Msambweni-Lunga Lunga (No. 11 - 35 miles): The main object ofthe works proposed in the project is to p improved road, some12 miles shorter than the existing route, for thrcugh-traffic crossing theborder with Tanzania. This amounts to less than 100 vpd at present, butit is expected that the Treaty for East African Cooperation, which cameinto force in December 1967, will help to expand Kenya's trade withTanzania, and traffic on this road should increase accordingly. Theadvantages offered by the much shorter alignment should also encourage morevehicles to use the route, and the much easier access to the border islikely to offer an attraction to the rapidly expanding tourist trafficalong the coast. Although part of the construction will follow a newalignment, the section between 'sambweni and Ramisi represents improve-ment to an existing road which is already carrying 300 vpd due largelyto the extensive and expanding cultivation of sugar in this area. Takinginto account the benefits to this traffic as well as to throagh-trafficto the border, a return of 15 percent is calculated from the proposal asa whole.

B. The Replacement of Ten Single-Lane Bridges

5.14 The replacement of single-lane bridges, situated on otherwisegood two-lane roads, has been included in the project primarily as asafety measure (see para. 4.12). No attempt has been made to quantifythe potential benefits resulting from any reduction in traffic accidentsand delays, It is considered that these reductions and the advantagesof avoiding disruptions to traffic where existing bridges are subject toflooding will be adequate to justify the proposals.

C. Road Works to be Engineered under the Project

5.15 The justification for including the engineering of certainsecondary/feeder roads in the project is based on the benefits expectedfrom their eventual cor truction. In the absence of detailed cost estimateswhich the engineering will provide, assessments of economic returns canonly be considered in broad terms at this stage, but all 14 rcads to beincluded are considered to show good prospects of offering satisfactoryreturns ranging from not less than 10 percent to more than 20 percent.Details relating to each of them are given in Tables 7 and 9.

6. CONCLJSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.01 The project is well conceived and is timed to maintain the paceof road development in Kenya; it is estimated to cost US$16.2 millionequivalent. The overall rate of return on the investment in the trunkroad element, which represents about 90 percent of the project, isestimated at 18 percent.

6.02 Final engineering for the proposed work on the trunk roads andbridges is complete. The cost estimates for about 85 percent of thisproposed work are based on accepted bids, and for the remainder on prices

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which are current and appear realistic. The cost estimates for detailedengineering of secondary/feeder roads are based on the estimated cost ofconstructiono The cost of the proposed Staff Training Scheme is based onthe net cost to Government of the seven expatriate appointments designedto strengthen management and planning functions of the MOW.

6.03 The project is technically sound and no major problems areanticipated during execution. The following principal points were agreedwith the Government during negotiations:

(i) the acceptability of design standards, particularly forpavement width (para 3.14);

(ii) the continued improvement of road maintenance, parti-cularly by local councils (para. 3.20); and

(iii) the arrangements for the Staff Training Scheme(para. h.17)

6.00 The project provides a suitable basis for an IDA Credit ofUS$10.7 million equivalent to the Governiment of Kenya.

May 28, 1968

Table 1

KENYA:SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Length of Roads, 1957 to 1966(Miles)

(Including municipal roads)

Improved Gravel UnimprovedYear Paved Roads and Earth Roads Roads Total

1957 453 8,371 15,642 24,466

1958 500 8,456 15,738 24,694

1959 531 8,739 15,657 24,927

1960 634 9,276 15,905 25,815

1961 746 9,391 15,844 25,981

1962 925 9,353 15,606 25,884

1963 1,112 9,416 15,523 26,051

1964 1,125 9,406 15,523 26,054

1965 1,281 9,250 15,523 26,o54

1966 1,336 9,336 15,523 26,195

Source: Statistical Abstract, 1966.

KENYA - SECOIZ HIGHWA!S PhOJIbCT

Estimated Number of Motor Vehicles. 1955 to 1965

TotalPick-ups & Other Other Motor (excluding motorcycles

Year Automobiles Light Trucks Trucks Buses Vehicles and trailers)

1955 25,900 15,300 9,500 600 2,000 53,3001956 28,700 17,200 10,100 700 2,500 59,2001957 31,200 18,400 10,100 800 2,900 63,40o1958 33,700 20,100 10,100 900 3,200 68,0001959. 36,000 21,200 10,100 1,000 3,600 71,9001960 40,000 23,600 10,200 1,100 4,000 78,9001961 42,400 24,600 10,300 1,300 4,300 82,9001962 45,200 26,200 10,300 1,400 4,600 87,7001963 48,o0o 27,800 10,300 1,600 5,100 92,8001964 50,500 30,000 10,200 1,800 5,700 98,2001965 53,700 32,900 10,200 2,000 6,200 105,000

Average annual growthrate in years:

1955 to 1960 9.0% 9.0% 1.5% 13.0% 15.0% 8.3%1960 to 1965 6.2% 7.0% 0.O% 12.9% 9.2% 5.9%

uR

source: U.K. Road Research Laboratory

KE2YA - SEfOND HIGHW!AY F7DJUCT

Central Government Highway Expenditures & Receipts from Road User Taxation, 1959 to 1966(E 0oo's)

Highway Exenditures Receipts from Taxation, etc.4V(Year ends in June) (Year ends in December)

Receipts as1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~% of Expen-

Year Construction Maintenance Administration Total Licenses Fuel Taxes Total diture

1959 551 854 629 2,034 870 1,741 2,611 128

1960 1,513 941 683 3,137 863 2,367 3,230 103

1961 2,127 987 707 3,821 854 3,039 3,893 102

1962 2,211 1,175 652 4,038 902 4,020 4,922 122

1963 2,399 1,3412" 723 4,463 738 4,491 5,229 117

1964 799 1,131 649 2,579 668 4,755 5,423 210

1965 720 979 674 2,373 922 5,o66 5,988 252

1966 2,448g/ 1,600 674 4,722 1,057 5,661 6,718 142

Average, 1959/1966 1i0

J/ Value of work exOcuted2/ Heavy expenditur; due largely to IDA project and improvement of Nairobi-Mombasa roadi/ Extra-ordinary ma+ntenance due to flood damageL/ Excludes import dities on vehicles and spares - some f 2.8 million in 1965/66

Sources: Ministry of Finance, and Roads branch of the Ikinistry of Works

Table h

KENYA: SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

HIGHWAY DESIGN STANDARDS

The highway standards, below, are those adopted by MOW in Kenya forType II and Type IIA roads (see para 3.2). Type IIA is a sub-division ofType II and differs only from the latter in pavement width; a Type IIAroad has a pavement width of 20 ft, a Type II road 18 ft. All othergeometrical characteristics are the same. All the roads included in theproject are designated either Type II or Type IIA roads.

"Normal" Terrain "Hilly" Terrain

Desirable Design Speed (mph) 60 40

Minimum acceptable design speed (mph) 50 30

Gradient - desirable maximum 1 in 20 (5%) 1 in 15 (6.7%)

- absolute maximum 1 in 15 (6.7%) 1 in 12 (8.3%)

Radius of horizontal curvature:

Desirable minimum 2000 ft 500 ft

Absolute minimum 1000 ft h00 ft

Design Speed (mph)60 50 4O 30

Minimum Stopping Sight Distance (ft) 475 350 275 200

Minimum Overtaking Sight Distance (ft) 2000 1700 1300 800

Pavement and Shoulder Width

Type IIA: 20 ft bituminous paving with 4 ft shouldersor 18 ft gravel paving with 6 ft shoulders

Type II: 18 ft bituminous paving with 4 ft shouldersor 18 ft gravel paving with 5 ft shoulders

Structures

(i) Loading CriterionTrunk roads: B.S. 153, HA loadingOther roads: 2/3 of B.S. 153, HA loading

(ii) Width

For 2-lane carriageways, 24 ft carriageway

KENYA: SECOND HIGHWlAY PROJECT

TRUNK ROADS TO BE REOONSTRUCTED UNDER THE PROJECT

Length StandardItem Road (miles) Terrain Existina Pronosed Consultants Remarks

1 Malindi-Kilifi 38 coastal plain/rolling Type IIA gravel Type IIA bitumen Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners Being constricted to gravel standard underCredit 70-KE

2 Kibaoni-Mtwapa 17 coastal plain/rolling single width bitumen Type IIA bitumen Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners

3 Timau-Meru 11 hilly/mountainous improved track 36 miles Type IIA Edwards & Burrow Across the northern slopes ofdifficult at times bitumen; 5 miles Mount Kenya

Type IIA gravel

I Embu-Ena 8 rolling Type II gravel Type II bitumen Edwards and Burrow

5 Kutus-Kerugoya 6 rolling Type II gravel Type IIA bitumen Edwards and Burrow Although Type IIA bitumen proposed,a relaxation in shoulder width isto be accepted because road wasconstructed initially to Type IIIstandard.

6 Ahero-Nyakoe 50 hilly Type II gravel Type II bitumen Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners Main Kisii-Kisujmi road; part of thislength was improved to gravel standardunder. Credit 70-KR.

7 Wanjare-Kamagambo 10 hilly improved track Type II bitumen Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners Main road south frn.Kisii towardsTanzania

8 Kamagambo-Suna 28 hilly improved track Type II bitumen Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners Extension of item (7) southwards

9 Eldoret-Kapsabet 26 rolling Type II gravel Type IIA bitumen Design by MOW; supervision by Improved to gravel standard underHoward Humphreys, Keeble & Loan 256-KEPartners

10 Kakamega-BroderickFalls 26 rolling improved track Type IIA bitumen Design by MOW; supervision by

Howard Humphreys, Keeble &Partners

11 Hsambweni-Lunga Lunga 35 coastal plain/rolling poor quality 20 miles Type IIA Edwards and Burrow The south coast road, leading to thepavemnt/track bitumen; 15 miles border with Tanzania

Type II gravel

CDrmC,,

KaVY - SLCOID I1IG!U_'LY i2OJECT

Single-lane bridges to be replaced

(all replacement to provide a 24-ft-wide carriageway across the structure)Item Bridge Location Existing Remarks

span (ft)

1 Sagana main Nanyuki-Nairobi alignment satisfactory and existing foundations consideredRoad near Nyeri 68 adequate. Existing bridge to be widened

2 Amboni eastern approach 35 on very sharp curve at the bottom of a hill; new structureto Nyeri to be on an acceptable alignment

3 Chania as (2) 50 on very "blind" horizontal curve; new structure to be onacceptable alignment

4 Hoey's bridge Eldoret-Kitale road 111 aliRnment adequate but existing bridge in poor condition(threeapan) and subject to flooding; 3-span replacement structure to

be built adjacent to existing bidge

5 Sergoit Eldoret-Kitale road 30 alignment adequate; existing bridge in poor condition;single- span replacement structure to be constructedadjacent to existing bridge

6 Wangozes Sotik-Narok road 84 existing timber bridge in poor condition; proposedreplacement is a three-span concrete structure

7 Kagawet as (6) 60 existing timber bridge in poor condition; to be replacedby a 60 ft concrete span on adjacent satisfactory alignment

8 Itare Kericho-Sotik road 104 existing bridge on very sharp horizontal curve; to bereplaced by a three-span structure on acceptable alignment

9 Kitho as (8) 40 existing bridge very close to sharp horizontal curve;proposed construction is single-span cor.crete structure ONon acceptable alignment

10 Lagana Suna-Isebania road 40 existing structure in poor condition and on bad alignment;proposed replacement to be constiucted on ncw alignment

KIBNYA: SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Schedule of Secondary/Feeder Roads to be Engineered Under the Project

Approximate Estimated EconomicItem Road Length - Milaes Rate of Return - b Engineering by Remarks

A Sections of the Embu-Meru Road 17 More than 20 Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners Part of the "old"route between Dmbu and Meru passing through the higher slopeson the east side of Mount Kenya, an intensively cultivated and heavilypopulated area. The existing track is winding and narrow, but is alreadycarrying more than 200 vpd in places. The proposed road will be to improvedgravel standard, and will be eight miles shorter than the existing route.

B Njoro-Elburgon-Molo-Mau Summit 25 15 to 20 Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners A road feeding into the main Nakuru-Eldoret road and serving the ilolo areaon the north-east slopes of the Hau escarpment. 200,000 acres are scheduledfor development in this area within the next decade. Much of the road alreadycarries hO4 vpd; it is intended to provide bitumen paving.

C Fort Hall-Kairini 22 15 to 20 Edwards & Burrow An existing low-grade but important track from Fort Hall up the easternslopes of the Aberdare mountains. The road serves a rich farming area pro-ducing a variety of cash crops. With only 130 vpd at present, the improvementwill be to gravel standards.

D Fiwingi Bridge Road 7 10 to 15 East African Engineering Part of the road from Nairobi to Garissa, providing a main access from NairobiConsultants to eastern Kenya. This 7-mile length near Mwingi, 90 miles east of Nairobi,

negotiates a difficult escarpment and is freqently impassable in the rainyseason.

Uplands-Kinare l4 More than 20 HOW Serves an important area close to Nairobi and currently carrying 400 vpd. Thearea provides much of the vegetables and dairy produce sold in the Nairobimaxtets. The proposal is to improve the road to bitumen standards.

F Gilgil-Ol Joro Orok 26 Over 20 MOW A road east of Nakuru and west of the Aberdare mountains, serving one of thelarger settlement schemes. Current traffic is nearly 400 vpd; the road will bebitumen paved.

Kakamega-Bungoma 43 10 to 15 MOW A road north of Kisumu and joining the main Uganda/Kerya trunk road west ofaaldoret. The road passes throalgh an area where the soils have been classifiedas amDngst the best agricultural soi-ls in the country. This is a major maizeproducing region; other products include coffees sugar cane, cotton. Theimprovement will be to gravel standards.

H Luanda-Mumias 13 15 to 20 MOW This is a lov grade track carrying more than 100 vpd. It passes through theonly area in western Kenya scheduled for the production of white sugar. Sugartrials are in progress and a sugar factory is proposed in Mumias. The roadwill be improved to gravel standards.

J Ngombeni-Kwale 15 10 to 15 MOW This road, carrying 150 vpd, leaves the south coast road south of Mombasa andserves the town of Kwale and the Shimba Hills settlement scheme, one o_ the majorsettlements in the coastal province. The area produces high quality vegetables,maize, cassava, and cashew nuts. The road will be improved to gravel standards.

K Homa Bay-Kendu Bay 19 15 to 20 HoW This road serving the eastern shore of Lake Victoria is currently a slightlyimproved track carrying nearly 150 vpd. The improvement will be to gravelstardards.

L Kisii-Manga 9 15 to 20 MOW This is a low standard track in the heavily cultivated area of Kisii Highlands,carrying 130 vpd. Produce of the area includes coffee, tea, maize, potatoes.The proposal is for improvement to gravel standards.

M Sotik-Litein-Kericho 15 More than 20 MOW This is an existing single-width bituminous road which it is proposed to upgradeto deuble width. It presently carries traffic of over 1,000 vpd at the Kerichoend. The improvements envisaged include minor betterments of alignment as wellas the widening of the pavement.

N Kerugoya-Kangaita 8 15 to 20 Edwards & Burrow This road is an extension of Trunk Road No. 5 (Kutus-Kerugoya) and leads to thetea factory and to the largest tea nursery in the country on Kangaita. It alsoprovides access to heavily cultivated areas and carries more than 200 vPdin places. The road will be improved to a paved standard.

F Njoro-Ehangipiri 33 About 20 Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners This road adjoins the Njoro-Mau Summit road, (item B above). It passes Cthrough areas of mixed farming and then through the wheat-growing areas of r

266 the Masai settlement near Mau Narok. The 8-mile length adjacent to Njoro mncarries traffic in excess of 250 vpd and is to be paved. The remaining 25miles carries traffic of about 100 vpd are to be improved to gravel standards.

TABLE 8

KENYA

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Cost Estimate

Ref. on Kenya U$,MhP_. Trunk Road Reconstruction Pounds Equivalent

000's) OOOJs)

1 14alindi-Kilifi )2 Kibaoni-Mtwapa )450 1s2603 Timau-Meru )4 Embu-Ena ) 1,047 2,9335 Kutus-Kerugoya )6 Ahero-Nyakoe )7 Wanjare- Kamagambo ) 1,320 3,6968 Kamagambo-Suna )9 Eldoret-Kapsabet )

10 Kakamega-Broderick Falls ) 758 2,12221 Nsambweni-Lunga Lunga 590 162

Bridge ReplacementKenya Us$Pounds E entThooos) 000:8)

1 Sagana 5 152 Amboni 25 703 Chania 29 804 Hoeyts Bridge 21 605 Sergoit 11 306 Nyangores 11 307 Kagawet 20 558 Itare 23 659 Kitho 20 5510 Lagana 21 60 186 2

14, 3511218

Design 196 550Supervision 271 760Engineering of Secondary/Feeder Roads 179 500Training Scheme 150 420

5j,147 3

Contingencies

Physical (7%) 361 1,000Price Escalation (5%) 1 730

Say US$16.2 miJJL' e

Note: Individual amounts have been "rounded" in each currency;conversions between the currencies are, therefore, onlyapproximate.

TABLE 9

KENYA

SECOND HIGHVIAY PROJECT

Savings in Vehicle Cperating CostsResulting from Road Improvements

CImprovement to two-lane Estimated Savings: U.S. cents per vehicle-miletitumen standards from: Code Light vehicles Heavy vehicles*

(cars, pick-ups, (trucks and buses)light vans)

Jmproved track 1 3.8 8.4slightly improved gravel 2 3.1 6.7Fproved gravel 3 2.4 5.03ingle-lane bitumen 4 1.2- 2.5

geconstruction to improvedgkravel standards from:

$lightly improved track 5 2.9 6.7Improved track 6 1.4 3.4

* Savings for "heavy vehicles" are equivalent to savings for a 6/7-ton truck.

4! Improvements Proposed for Project Roads

oads to be Reconstructed Improvement as coded above

. Malindi-Kilifi 3?. Kibaoni-Mtwapa 43. Timau-Meru 1. Embu-Eha 2

~. > Kutus-Kerugoya 36. Ahero--Nyakoe 3'. Wanjare-Kamagambo 1

8. Kamagambo-Suna 12. Eldoret-Kapsabet 310. Kakamega-Broderick Falls 111. Msambweni-Lunga Lunga 1 and 6

Roads to be Engineered

A. Embu-Meru 6B. Njoro-Elburgon-Molo-Mau Summit 2C. Fort Hall-Kairini 5D. Mwingi Bridge Road 5E. Uplands-Kinare 2F. Gilgil-Ol Joro Orok 1G. Kakamega-Bungoma 6H. Luanda-Mumias 5J. Kwale-Ngombeni 6K. Homa Bay-Kendu Bay 5L. Manga-Kisii 5M. Sotik-Litein-Kericho 4N. Kerugoya-Kangaita 1 and 3P. Njoro-Enangipiri 1 and 6

NOTE: Tho savings expected in vehicle operating costs are based on results ofRoad Research Laboratory investigations in East Africa, adapted by theRoads Branch and the Bank mission to reflect the road improvements in theproject.

KENYA: SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

ORGANIZATION OF THE MINISTRY OF WORKS (1967)

in relation to

THE PROPOSED STAFF TRAINING SCHEME

MINISTER FOR WORKS

IPERMANENT SECRETARY FOR

WORKS

ENGINEER-IN-CHIEF

(Electrical (Structures (Buildings Branch) (Quantity Surveying - ProvincialBranch) ! Branch) I Branch) _ -- _ Engineers (Mechanical Engineering Branch)

(Materials Branch) I Chief Architect I(Material Branch Chief Structural Chie A c (Roads Branch) Chief Mechanical Engineer

Engineer Chief Quantity Surveyoc _ - IChief Materials Engineer I I | \ Deputy Chief S upernumarary

Supernumerary I Chief Engieer (Roads) Mechanical SuperintendingSuperintending Deputy Chief Materials Engineer MechanicalMaterials Engineer E n E r gineer

lEngineer I ("Design &Materials Engineers "Maintenance") Constmxction")

Chief ateral. Senior Superintending S apernumerary Senior Superintending Egineersistant Materi al. Assistants Engineer (Maintenance) Senior Super- (Planning)

intending EngineerJ(Planning)

("Departmental ("Local Council ("Design & Construction) ("Forward Plannine") \Maintenance") M t ce") I

Superintending Engineer Superintending SupernumerarySupernumerary Superintending Engineer Superintendihg Engineer (Design & Construction) Engineer SuperintendingSuperintending (Maintenance) (Inspection) (Forward Planning) EngineerEngineer l _n e(ForwardPlaning(Maintenance) Supernumerary = Surveyor I

Engineers, Chief TechnicalRoad Superintendents, AssistantInspectors (Survey)Foremen surveyor assistantsMOW road construction units stereo plotting assistants

LEGEND: drawing officerepresents positions in theproposed Staff Training Scheme

NOTE: For simplification, junior positions have been omitted from the chart.

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