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Appendix G

Socio-Economics Impact Assessment Report

Socio-economic assessment of the proposed civic plaza and ancillary traffic management measures at College Green

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College Green Plaza ProjectAn Bord Pleanala Ref. 29S.JA0039

Further Information Request, Item 9.

Socio-economic assessment of the impact of the proposed civic plaza and ancillary traffic management measures at College Green

Socio-economic assessment of the proposed civic plaza and ancillary traffic management measures at College

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1. Introduction 3

1.2.4 Section 4 of the report provides a review of international research on the public realm interventions and restrictions to central urban cores. 4

1.2.5 Section 5 of this report presents an analysis of impact of change of traffic flows and modal change. This section of the report will examine the impact of projected journey growth and modal shift as well as general economic and demographic growth within the canal cordon as applied to economic multipliers such as turnover and consumer spend and the potential impact on retail environment, business and tourism. This section has regard to analysis of the traffic model from Item 2 of the FI response. 4

5.0 Analysis of impact of change of traffic flows and modal change. 37


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1. Introduction

1.1 An Bord Pleanala – Further Information Request, Item 9

1.1.1 This Socio-economic assessment report has been prepared in response to An Bord Pleanala’s Request for Further information in respect of the proposed Civic Plaza and ancillary traffic management measures at College Green, Dublin.

1.1.2 Specifically, it addresses Item 9 of the Board’s request to Dublin City Council which states the following.

Concerns have been raised in the submissions received regarding the impacts of the proposal in combination with other transport measures on accessibility to the city centre and the consequences for the economic performance and competitiveness of the city centre. To address this matter it is requested that a comprehensive socio-economic assessment of the impact of the proposed development be undertaken (in conjunction with other proposed traffic management measures) on the city centre retail environment, business and tourism interests arising from potential reduced access to the city centre by private vehicles, taxis etc. and the diversion of bus routes, relocation of bus stops, displacement of bus customers during both the construction/operational stages, severance of routes, increased journey times and costs.

Any response to 7 to 9 above should, where relevant, be incorporated into the EIAR. In preparing its response Dublin City Council is also requested to have due regard to the other issues raised in the submissions made to the Board.

1.2 Structure of this report

1.2.1 This Further Information Response is submitted as a stand-alone report to An Bord Pleanala and not incorporated into the EIAR as noted above. This is on the basis of the EPA’s EIAR Draft Guidelines 2017 note in respect of the assessment of population and human health:

The legislation does not generally require assessment of land-use planning, demographic issues or detailed socio-economic analysis. Coverage of these can be provided in a separate Planning Application Report to accompany an application for planning permission. This should be avoided in an EIAR, unless issues such as economic or settlement patterns give rise directly to specific new developments and associated effects (see also section 3.5.7). These need to be readily identifiable at specific locations in the immediate vicinity of the proposed development.

1.2.2 This report seeks to address the issues raised in the Board’s request in a structured manner. Section 2 of this report seeks to clarify what the “other proposed traffic management measures” constitute in addition to the College Green Plaza itself. Set within the framework of the Dublin City Centre Transport Study this is a very fluid context with different projects already implemented, pending opening or marked for future implementation.

1.2.3 Section 3 provides a profile of city centre socio-economic context. This has regard to the:- City centre retail environment and concentration of location;- City centre business districts, activities values; and- City centre tourism industry profile, primary attractions and supporting infrastructure (hotels,

airport, etc.).

1.2.4 This provides an overview of Macro-Economic Trends in Dublin City Centre having regard to established indicators. This provides an picture of the health of the Dublin economy, its resilience to cope with disturbance as a result of major infrastructural projects in recent years which have impacted on access to the city core for private vehicles.


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1.2.4 Section 4 of the report provides a review of international research on the public realm interventions and restrictions to central urban cores.

1.2.5 Section 5 of this report presents an analysis of impact of change of traffic flows and modal change. This section of the report will examine the impact of projected journey growth and modal shift as well as general economic and demographic growth within the canal cordon as applied to economic multipliers such as turnover and consumer spend and the potential impact on retail environment, business and tourism. This section has regard to analysis of the traffic model from Item 2 of the FI response.

1.3 Dublin City Development Plan 2016-2022

1.3.1 The Dublin City Development Plan 2016-2022 set out the policy framework for the City centre and the city’s transport strategy which is encapsulated in Dublin City Transport Study 2016. The Policy context of the City Development Plan is examined at length in the EIAR submitted, but Policy MT2 is noted here for establishing the transport strategy and strategic co-operation which is key to its implementation:

MT2: Whilst having regard to the necessity for private car usage and the economic benefit to the city centre retail core as well as the city and national economy to continue to promote modal shift from private car use towards increased use of more sustainable forms of transport such as cycling, walking and public transport, and to co-operate with the NTA, Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) and other transport agencies in progressing an integrated set of transport objectives. Initiatives contained in the Government’s ‘Smarter Travel’ document and in the NTA’s Draft Transport Strategy are key elements of this approach.

The Heart of Dublin City Centre Public Realm Masterplan (June 2016)

1.3.2 The City Development plan proposes to improve linkages between the north and south retail cores by improving facilities for pedestrians through implementation of the city’s Public Realm Strategy (s.2.3.5) The vision for the Public Realm Masterplan is for a pedestrian-friendly Core, where there is greater balance between pedestrians and vehicles, an expanded pedestrian space and more opportunities for pedestrians to move through the city core. Relevant goals include:

Removal of Vehicular Traffic from College Green

To develop a transport strategy that facilitates the longer-term ambition to create a pedestrian friendly core by reorganising bus routes to minimise traversing of the city centre.

To undertake a pedestrian audit for the city core.

1.3.3 The Masterplan specifically refers to the redesign of College Green as a civic space of national and city importance that has long been an objective of Dublin City Council. College Green is identified as a Phase 1 Public Realm Project (2016-22). This builds upon the identification of College Green as potentially the city’s most important civic space in ‘Your City, Your Space Dublin City Public Realm Strategy’ (2012).

1.4 Dublin City Centre Transport Study (2016)

1.4.1 The accessibility of the city centre and consequences for the economic performance and competitiveness of the city centre have been at the forefront of public policy for over two decades since the Dublin Transportation Initiative report in 1995. The Dublin City Transport Study (2016) represents the next step this evolution of transport policy for the city as a comprehensive over-arching transport strategy.

1.4.2 The Dublin City Transport Study (2016) sets out the vision for Dublin City Centre with guiding principles to facilitate increased access to the city centre, to protect the investment in public transport, and to develop a safer city centre for all transport modes and users.

1.4.3 Jointly prepared by Dublin City Council and the National Transport Authority, the study seeks to ensure


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that Dublin City can continue to grow and be economically vibrant. The proposed traffic management


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and public transport initiatives for the city, reflect its estimates that by 2023, the transport network of Dublin City will be required to cater for approximately 40,000 additional journeys each morning across the canal cordon, an increase of almost 20% from 200,000 to 240,000.

1.4.4 The study sets down a framework for how Dublin City’s transport network can cater for this increased demand, by better utilising the existing infrastructure available, and by moving towards a more sustainable and efficient use of the public realm within the city centre. The stated aim of the Dublin Transport Study is to:

“ set down a framework for how Dublin City’s transport network can be redefined to cater for this increased usage, by better utilising the existing infrastructure available, and by moving towards a more sustainable and efficient use of the public realm within the city centre. The Study will facilitate Dublin with an opportunity to grow as a city both physically and economically, whilst also creating a better public realm which can be enjoyed by residents and visitors alike”

1.4.5 In 2016 Dublin City Council commissioned EY and DKM Economic Consultants to prepare the report “City Centre Transport Proposals, Assessment of Impact on retail market”. This also had regard to the Millward Report “Dublin Transport Study What people think of the proposed plans in the Dublin City Centre Transport Study Final report July 2016”.

1.4.6 This report concluded that the overall impact of the proposed NTA changes to the City Centre will be positive and should lead to increased numbers of consumers in the City Centre and subsequently increased retail opportunities. The Executive Summary of the report states:

• Our assessment of the retail environment in the City Centre suggests a positive outlook, with increased retail sales and more consumers in the City Centre. This growth will be held back if the transport network cannot support convenient access.

• Similar schemes to improve public transport in city centres have been undertaken in a large number of cities globally and assessments made of these suggest that they have had a positive impact on the retail environment

• A survey, undertaken by Millward Brown, shows strong public support for the proposals and suggests that is likely to lead to increased consumer visits to the City Centre and increased shopping and socialising

1.4.7 The Dublin City Transport Study (2015), City Centre Transport Proposals, Assessment of Impact on Retail Market (August 2016) are included as appendices to this report for the Board’s convenience.

1.5 Comprehensive policy context

1.5.1 Cities are complex ecosystems. The economic performance and competitiveness of the city centre may be equally framed in issues of culture, attractiveness, safety, public realm, air quality, attractions and activities as one of access to private motor vehicles. There are multiple externalities that can profoundly affect all 3 sectors (retail environment, business and tourism) irrespective of the alterations to allocation of road space.

1.5.2 These factors may include internet shopping competition, national economic performance, capacity and cost of hotels, affordability of residential accommodation, cost of parking, currency exchange, aviation costs, natural and manmade disasters and implementation of capital projects (BRT, Metro, etc.). There is a great risk of over-simplification by abstracting a particular issue (traffic management measures), from a comprehensive suite of policies incorporated in the statutory development plan for the area.

1.5.3 Dublin is competition with cities around Europe and the World. Global indices such as A.T. Kearney Global Index 2016 ranked Dublin at 22 up from 28th position. They examine a city‘s performance across five dimensions: business activity, human capital, information exchange, cultural experience, and political engagement. “A truly global city, by our definition, is measured by its ability to attract and retain global


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capital, people, and ideas, as well as sustain that performance in the long-term.” The Arcadis Sustainable Cities Index 2016 leads with the tag line of “Putting people at the heart of city sustainability”. Dublin places 35th on this index. John Batten, Global Director of Water and Cities highlights in the Foreword:

A city revolves around its people, and sustainability ultimately improves their quality of life. The range of people’s needs in a city is broad, encompassing livelihood requirements of nourishment, housing and safety, education and vocational opportunities, recreational outlets and access to culture and arts. A city’s built assets, such as buildings, transportation networks and pedestrian thoroughfares, perform optimally when planned and installed to accentuate the living experience of its people. Getting a city to invest, develop, evolve and, ultimately, be a better host for its permanent residents, will propel it to become more sustainable and competitive

1.4.5 The College Green Plaza project is envisaged to enhance Dublin’s competitiveness and its working, living and visiting experience as part of a broader strategy to improve and support access to its economic drivers.


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2. Definition of proposed development be undertaken (in conjunction with other proposed traffic management measures

2.1 Traffic and Transport Projects

2.1.1 The Traffic management projects and proposals that are affect the city centre were summarised in section 6.4.1 of the Environmental Impact Assessment submitted to an Bord Pleanála in May 2017. These measures are included in the NTA traffic model which forms the basis of for projecting traffic impact on the network in target years. As noted in section 1, the Dublin City Transport Study (2016) provides the framework for measures as part of a comprehensive transport strategy which goes beyond traffic management measures. It is notable that some of the measures in this strategy have been implemented already. The relevant transport and traffic measures arising from the Dublin City Transport Study are summarised below.

2.2 Public Transport Projects

Scheduled to be completed in 20182.2.1 A number of public transport changes are scheduled to be completed by 2018 including Luas Cross City

and increased DART frequencies. The planned changes and assumptions made in this assessment are detailed in the following sections.

Luas Cross City2.2.1 The Luas Cross City is an extension of the existing Luas Green Line beginning at the current Green Line

Terminus at St. Stephen’s Green, connecting with the Luas Red Line at O’Connell’s Street / Abbey Street and continuing northbound to the DIT Grangegorman Campus, Phibsborough and terminating at the Broombridge Rail Station. This scheme passes immediately adjacent to the Proposed Project. Luas Cross City is currently under construction and is scheduled to be open in December 2017.

DART Frequency Increase2.2.3 The DART frequency increase will provide for increased rail throughput, in particular an increase of up

to 17 trains per hour (tph) running across the Loop Line Bridge across the River Liffey.

Scheduled to be Completed in 20352.2.4 A large number of public transport proposals are included in the Transport Strategy for the Greater

Dublin Area 2016 – 2035. For the purposes of this assessment, it has been assumed that all proposals made in that document have been delivered by 2035. The main proposals contained in the Transport Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2016 – 2035 are summarised below:

GDA Cycle Network Plan;

Core Bus Network;

Swords/Airport-City Centre, Blanchardstown-UCD and Clongriffin-Tallaght Swiftway BRT lines;

DART Expansion Programme;

New Metro North from Fingal / North Dublin Transport Study;

Dublin Corridor Study proposals;

Dublin City Centre Transport Study; and

Integration and ITS Measures.

2.3 Road Network Projects

Scheduled to be Completed by 20182.3.1 A number of changes to the road network that could affect the traffic flow in the vicinity of the site are

assumed to be in place by 2018 prior to the opening of College Green Plaza. Those local to the Proposed Project are listed below:


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One bus lane and one traffic lane on Bachelors Walk; Two bus lanes and one lane of traffic on Eden Quay. Traffic travelling eastward on Bachelors

Walk is able to either turn left on to O’Connell Street or continue straight on to Eden Quay. Two bus lanes (one for stopping) and one traffic lane along Aston Quay, Wellington Quay and

Essex Quay. Left turn provided public transport only for traffic turning from Wellington Quay to Parliament Street.

One bus lane (with indented bus stops) and one traffic lane on Burgh Quay. Dedicated lanes for left, right and straight movements at junction with O’Connell Bridge.

Two-way tram along Dawson Street between Street Stephens Green and Duke Street, public transport only north of Duke Street.

Note: The initial modelling work had assumed that southbound movement on Kildare Street between Naasau Street and Setanta Place would be restricted to public transport only. Instead, it is intended that general traffic will also be able to travel southbound on this link, allowing general car traffic entering Naasau Street via Frederick Street South, to use this route.

Suffolk Street closed to traffic with bus routes previously using this street rerouted to Grafton Street Lower.

The flow around Church Lane, Andrew’s Street, and Trinity Street to remain as it currently operates.

Scheduled to be Completed by 20352.3.2 In addition to the street network changes to be implemented in the short term, there are a number of

long term proposals that are envisaged to be completed by 2035. The following lists some of the relevant road network proposals that will become operational between 2018 and 2035:

Road / traffic management infrastructure upgrades; M50 and radial national road demand management proposals; Integration and ITS Measures; Dublin Corridor Study proposals; and Dublin City Centre Transport Study Proposals.

2.4 Proposed Project

2.4.1 The following key components of the Proposed Project relevant to this chapter are noted below:

Provide a civic plaza space at College Green which would be reserved for pedestrians and cyclists, preventing all traffic travelling from Dame Street through College Green to Westmoreland Street, and travelling in the opposite direction, from D’Olier Street to Dame Street.

Buses currently using Dame Street to cross the city will be diverted onto other routes, while buses which continue to use Dame Street will turn around at College Green, in a new turning circle at the junction of Foster Place and Church Lane.

Parliament Street will be restricted to public transport only from 7am to 7pm Monday to Friday. The proposals include a dedicated two-way cycle track on the eastern and southern sides of the

plaza. Bicycle parking spaces are proposed within the plaza. The plaza allows for emergency access. The existing permanent taxi rank on College Green will be relocated to Dame Street with

capacity increased from 5 taxis to 8. The existing night-time rank with capacity for 3 taxis on the northern side of Dame Street will be converted to a permanent taxi rank. Additional night time capacity equating to 21 spaces will also be provided through the use of proposed loading bays on Trinity Street, Church Lane and Dame Street.


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3. Profile of city centre socio-economic context.

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 This section presents an overview of Macro-Economic Trends in Dublin City Centre having regard to established indicators. This provides an picture of the health of the Dublin economy, its resilience to cope with disturbance as a result of major infrastructural projects in recent years which have impacted on access to the city core for private vehicles (i.e. Luas works, Bus Gate and established QBCs).

Retail – current trend in consumer sentiment, Dublin City Centre shopper survey, CSO Employments

Office – current trend in employment, vacancy rates, Dublin as a driver of economic activity in the state, and the current and future demands for additional commercial floorspace to locate new/existing companies

Tourism – The majority of visitors from abroad enter Ireland through Dublin Airport. Growth in visitors and expenditure in the country , projections of potential growth in 2023

Residential – Dublin city population changes, current housing supply, assessing the impacts to theresident population within the city centre area

3.2 Macro Trends

3.2.1 The tables and graphs below sources from the ESRI, CSO and Dublin Economic Monitor are included to provide an overall economic context for economic change in the city. Overall, it is clear that the macro economic indicators for the city place Dublin as a resilient and robust economy that is emerging strongly from the recession and forecast to grow in the short to medium term, with growth in office space, residential population, journeys being made into the city, all contribution to significant additional expenditure and support of retail and service industries.

Table 3.1 Irish Macroeconomic growth forecasts.

Consumer sentiment

3.2.2 The Consumer sentiment index1 is up year on year. The overall Dublin Consumer Sentiment Index increased in Q2 driven by improving perceptions of current conditions and rising expectations regarding

11 http://www.dublineconomy.ie/latest-edition/

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the future. This is mirrored by Dublin Economic Monitor reporting on Dublin Current Conditions and expectations. All retail sales are up 3.5% for 2017 over 2016 and June 2017 was up 4% on June 20162.

Consumer sentiment Dublin National Excl Dublin

Q2 2017 151 157Year on Year change -2.2 1.1

Quarter on quarter change 7.5 -1.4Table 3.2 Dublin Consumer sentiment

Fig. 3.1 Dublin Consumer Sentiment

Fig. 3.2 Dublin Current Conditions

2 Retail Excellence, Q2 Retail Ireland Monitor

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Fig. 3.3 Dublin Expectations

Employment

3.2.3 More than 232,000 new jobs created in Dublin in the last four years (since 2013)– 65,100 in 2016 and almost 20,000 additional jobs created in Q1 2017 (CBRE Ireland Why Dublin Report June 2017). Unemployment rate now at 9-year low of 6.2% and continuing to decline as the economy approaches full employment (CBRE Ireland Why Dublin Report June 2017)

3.2.4 Live register figures from social welfare offices located inside the study areas were also reviewed for a more up to date overview of employment trends. As is evident for Dublin County as a whole, unemployment has been declining in Dublin city centre over the past number of years.

Fig. 3.4 Dublin and National Unemployment Rate and PMI Employment Growth


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Fig. 3.5 Dublin and National PMI Employment Growth

3.2.5 The Number of people at work who are residents in Electoral Divisions inside the College Green Study area 2006-2016 – CSO has changed from 23,246 in 2006 to 22,800 in 2011 up to 28,009 in 2016. The Commuter POWSCAR information for 2016 shows that some 159,061 travel to the area to work.

Table 3.3 Live register figures for the month of December from 2010 to 2016

YEAR Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

Thomas Street 4435 4496 4555 4366 3960 Discontinued Discontinued

Bishop Square 8534 8614 8532 7981 7200 6495 5590

Apollo House (Tara Street) 2804 2766 2616 2520 2260 Discontinued Discontinued

Kings Inn Street 7614 7579 7421 6871 6278 5359 4493

Cork Street N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5789 5373

Table 3.4 Live register figures for the month of December from 2011 to 2016 (percentage change year on year)

YEAR Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

Thomas Street 1% 1% -4% -9% Discontinued Discontinued

Bishop Square 1% -1% -6% -10% -10% -14%

Apollo House (Tara Street) -1% -5% -4% -10% Discontinued Discontinued

Kings Inn Street 0% -2% -7% -9% -15% -16%

Cork Street N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (no record from previous year) -8%


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Fig. 3.6 Electoral Divisions within core city area identified as 10-minute catchment area of College Green

Public Transport Trips

3.2.6 Public Transport Trips in Dublin have grown strongly from 46.5m in Q4 to 50.9m in Q1 2017, with year on year change ranging from +1.6m to +2.4m.

Fig. 3.7 Public Transport Trips


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3.2.7 Modal split in the city for private cars has fallen from 50% in 2006 to 32% in 2016. This has been achieved through proactive planning and traffic management policies coupled with improvements in public transport and cycling infrastructure. In 2016 of the 202,001 people crossing the canal in the morning, 48.6% came by public transport, 32.1% came by car, 10.6% walked and 6% cycled. The way in which people access the city centre has transformed over time and Dublin City Council continues to support this transition to a more sustainable city. The opening of Luas Cross City will further encourage more access by public transport.

Shopping Trips

3.2.8 In a survey carried out by Millward Brown in 2014 it was estimated that 47% of persons coming to the city centre were doing so to shop. This figure increased to 61% when secondary reasons for coming to the city centre for retail purposes. Only 16% of people were coming to the city centre by car.

Main purpose of visiting city centre %

Shopping 47%Social/Recreation 21%

Working 19%School/College 10%

Other 3%Table 3.5 Millward Brown analysis of Modal share

Fig. 3.8 Concentration of retail activity in core city area

3.2.9 The main mode of transport used for getting to and from the city centre on the day of the survey was bus with four in ten (42%) travelling by this mode. The next most used mode is car at 17%, particularly among those on social recreational visits, followed closely by 16% walking and a similar proportion travelling by Luas, also most frequently used among social and recreational visitors. Transport modes used by Shoppers are similar to overall visitors with 42% travelling by bus and 19% travelling by car, with shoppers travelling by Luas and Walking at 15% and 17% respectively.


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3.2.10 The Dublin Transport Study estimates by 2023, the transport network of Dublin City will be required to cater for approximately 40,000 additional journeys each morning across the canal cordon, an increase of almost 20% from 200,000 to 240,000.

3.2.11 Taking that under consideration potential additional expenditures based on those 40,000 additional journeys would be as per table 3.6:

Main mode of transport Base: Car (192)

Rail/ DART (36)

Walking (175)

Luas (156) Bus (433)

Bicycle (31)

Average spend per mode of transport (current) - 95 euro3 141 120 69 97 84 66Times visited city for shopping in past 4 weeks (average) 2.79 3.64 6.81 4.05 3.82 5.03Estimated Total spend Past 4 weeks (estimate) in Euro 393 437 470 393 321 332

Total Spend x total People Euro 75,456 15,732 82,250 61,308 138,993 10,292Percentage of expenditure per category of mode (based on 2014 Shopping Survey) 20% 4% 21% 16% 36% 3%Projection of additional travels by 2023 (additional 40000 journeys total) 8,000 1,600 8,400 6,400 14,400 1,200Projection of additional weekly expenditure by 2023 in City centre based on additional 40000 journeys and different modes of travel 3,144,000 699,200 3,948,000 2,515,200 4,622,400 398,400

Table 3.6 Potential additional consumer expenditure under alternative modal scenarios

3.3.12 These expenditure figures are very simply calculation applied to the additional 40,000 projected journeys each day across the canals. Using percentages from the Millward Brown Dublin City Centre Shopper report applied those numbers to 40,000 additional travels broken down by different type of transport, would yield additional expenditure of €15.3m per week or some €797m per annum.

3.3 Office

3.3.1 The Dublin office market extends to more than 3.7 million square metres (40 million sq. ft.) of which more than 60% is located in the city centre specifically. More than 70% of the office leasing activity that occurs in Dublin each year occurs in the city centre region (CBRE Report - Dublin Office MarketView, Q2 2017)

3.3.2 According to CBRE more than 150,000m2 of office leasing transactions were signed in the Dublin market in the first half of 2017, with two thirds of this leasing activity having been signed in the second quarter. The volume of leasing activity recorded in the first half of 2017 is exceptional and is 68% higher than the volume of leasing activity recorded in the same period in 2016.

3.3.3 Annual average take-up in the Dublin office market over the last ten years was approximately 182,000sq m (2 million sq. ft.) per annum (CBRE Report 2017 /Dublin Office Supply Update).

3 Source: Millward Brown for National Transport Agency, Dublin City Centre Shopping Survey Report, 2014, p.15


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Figure. 3.9 Irish Office take up (Sq.m.). Source : Irish Office Market, Q2 2017 Cushman & Wakefield Research

3.3.4 At the end of Q2 2017, the vacancy rate in Dublin city centre was 4.6% vs 5.4% the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate in the Dublin 2/4 postcode at the end of Q2 2017 was 5.0% compared to 5.77% three months previously. Vacancy rates in Dublin fell in Q2 2017 with the Grade A vacancy rate in Dublin 2/4 at just over 2.0% at the mid-year point versus 3.0% at the end of Q1 2017. In terms of the prime Dublin office market, the report points to rents rising by 4.6 per cent in 2017 (similar to 2016) to reach €646/sq.m. by year’s end. This is up from €619/sq.m. at the end of 20164.

3.3.5 In addition to the vacant stock in the market presently, there is actually more than 360,000m 2 (3.87 million sq. ft.) currently under construction in the city centre in 27 individual schemes of which 20% is currently reserved Source (CBRE – 2017 Dublin Office Supply Update). It is also notable that new office development in the city centre have very limited car parking spaces and are required to have end of trip staff facilities to encourage cyclist journeys and have mobility plans which support public transport use.

3.3.6 Based on employment density guidelines5 with an average office space is 11 sq.m. – per person, potentially there will be 33,000 jobs created in Dublin City centre in the short to medium term as a result of growth in office space.

4 http://www.sherryfitz.ie/files/p_20170822101753OVERVIEW%20Irish%20Office%20Market%20Q2%202017%20HR.pdf 5https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/484133/employment_density_guide_3rd_edition.pdfp. 29 – Density Matrix


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3.4 Tourism

3.4.1 Tourism is one of Ireland's most important economic sectors and has significant potential to play a further role in Ireland's economic renewal. In 2015, tourism was responsible for overseas earnings of €4.208 billion (excluding carrier receipts – airfares and ferry costs). Combining the data from the domestic market and international visitors, total tourism revenue for the economy in 2015 was around €7.0609 billion. The tourism sector supports 143,500 jobs in the accommodation and food sector alone, and overall employment in tourism is estimated to be in the region of 205,000. Tourism also shapes Ireland’s image and attractiveness as a place to live, work and invest (www.dttas.ie/tourism).

3.4.2 Data from the Central Statistics Office for 2015 shows that overall visits to Ireland in 2015 rose by 13.7% (8.645 million trips). Core tourism visits grew strongly with holiday trips up 20.4% and business trips up 12.3%. Visits to friends and relatives in Ireland rose by 4%. Spending by visitors to Ireland also increased in 2015, with total tourism and travel earnings from overseas visitors (incl. fares) growing by 17.3% to€5.530 billion.

3.4.3 Dublin is Ireland’s most important tourist entry point and destination, and that eight of the 10 most frequently visited tourist attractions in the state are located in Dublin. Some 77% of Dublin’s Tourist come from overseas (5.7m and 1.7m domestic) generating revenue of €2.3bn for the economy.

Fig. 3.10 Dublin Airport arrivals

3.4.4 The Dublin Economic Monitor (www.dublineconomy.ie) reflects that tourism is a vital economic pillar of every major city. It provides jobs and revenue, incentivises the preservation of cultural heritage, and allows the exchange of ideas and inspiration.

3.4.5 According to the Irish Tourist Industry Confederation, in 2015 in Dublin there was +14% year-on-year increase in visitors to 6.68 million with €1.95 billion spend. This included 4.7 million international visitors


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and 1.98 million domestic visitors to Dublin (Eoghan O’Mara Walsh Chief Executive Irish Tourist IndustryConfederation Economic Impact to Dublin of Tourism March 2016)6. By 2016 this had grown to some 5.7m overseas and 1.7m domestic visitors generating revenue of €2.3bn for the economy7.

3.4.6 The ITIC has highlighted a 2020 target of 6.2 million visitors for the city by 2020. An additional 1.5m visitors8. The ITIC estimates 8,000 additional net bedrooms are required to accommodate this demand.

3.4.7 College Green is located at pivotal location in the city at a central hub linking retail, leisure/recreation and visitor attractions (Dublin and Trinity College). The Book of Kells is in the Top 5 tourist attractions at 890,781 2016 (+6%). The Guinness Storehouse (which many visitors walk to along Dame Street/Thomas Street) was Ireland’s top tourist attraction in 2016 with 1,647,408 visitors (+10%).

3.4.8 Latest official figures for overseas arrivals to Ireland in the first six months of 2017 show there was +4.2% growth overall. 2017 had the best ever month of June for Irish tourism, with almost 1 million arrivals, an increase of +8%. During this first six-month period, there has been growth of +21.6% from North America, with Australia and Developing markets also performing very strongly with an increase of +20.6%. Arrivals from Mainland Europe also grew, by a more modest +6%. However, Great Britain continued to decline, with a decrease of -6.4% in the Jan-June period. Established economic multipliers for Tourism outline the following implications:

• Every 55 international tourist visits helps support one tourism job• 1,000 additional tourists support 18 jobs in the tourism industry• Every €1 million of tourist expenditure helps to support 34 tourism jobs Since 2013 on average growth in no. of visits is 600,000 (Ireland) Since 2013 on average yearly growth in expenditure was 400 million Euro

3.4.9 Based on projected growth of tourist numbers could potentially be in the region of 27,000 up to 48,000 additional Tourist jobs in the city by 2020 (based on most recent projections), and based on expenditure growth (multiplier) up to 95,200 additional jobs created by 2023. Some of the multipliers suggest jobs growth could be stronger than this.

3.4.9 Fáilte Ireland multipliers show that 1,000 additional tourists support 18 jobs in the tourism industry. Dublin Tourism targets are shown in Table 3.3.12 below forecast highlighting the potential for significant spending, employment and tax revenue.

Tourism targets for Dublin by 2020

Growth in number of visitors 6.2 millionGrowth in overseas spending (% pa) 8.6

Growth in employment (000s,cumulative) 7.6Growth in employment 19,600

Additional Tax Revenue 775 millionAdditional Overseas Revenue 1.19 billion

Table 3.3.12 Irish Tourist Industry projections for growth in visitors and revenue.

6 https://www.dublincity.ie/councilmeetings/documents/s3542/Economic%20Impact%20Tourism%2022%20March2016.pdf7 Failte Ireland, Tourism Facts 2016, Preliminary8 Fáilte Ireland recently released the Dublin Visitor Accommodation 2015-2020 Report which suggests visitor numbers will increase to 7.4m people by 2020.


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Fig. 3.11 Geocode locations of tourist attracts and services in Dublin City Centre.

3.4.10 Figures 3.13 and Fig.3.14 below highlight the strong growth in Dublin Average hotel rates and occupancy rates (up to 83.2%) associated with these strong tourist trends.

Fig. 3.13 Dublin Hotel Average Daily Rates 2011-17 (Source: Dublin Economic Monitor)

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Fig. 3.14 Dublin Hotel Occupancy Rates 2011-17 (Source: Dublin Economic Monitor)

3.5 Residential

3.5.1 There are 50,573 people living in EDs within study area according to Census 2016 with projected growth in population by 22% before 2026 to 64,000. This growth in population will have a positive impact on retail and services in the area. For Dublin City Council area overall the population grew from 527,612 in 2011 to 548,519 in 2016. The 2017 population is estimated at 587,881. Projections for 2021 and 2026 anticipate potential growth up to 627,023 and 654,528 respectively; an increase of the order of 78,504 persons over 10 years.

3.5.2 There is also growing demand for student accommodation and there are already 3 planning applications inside study area (2 granted and 1 commenced) for 84 units – see figure below. There are 357 residential, 184 residential and commercial and 463 commercial buildings in Geodirectory Q2 2016 dataset inside study area.

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EDNAMEPopulation 2006

Population 2011

Population 2016

T2016 (CSO 2016) T2017 T2021 T2026 T2030

Inns Quay C 2672 2709 2757 2757 2944 3167 3418 3573Mansion House A 4462 4347 4665 4665 4872 5348 5846 6118Mansion House B 869 1069 1311 1311 1152 1235 1316 1354Merchants Quay A 2062 2275 2513 2513 2577 2843 3142 3322Merchants Quay B 3901 3822 3966 3966 4377 4819 5256 5490Mountjoy A 3760 5326 5389 5389 5979 6571 7241 7649North City 3867 5345 5654 5654 6251 6948 7609 7941North Dock C 4179 4345 4214 4214 4947 5460 6016 6345Rotunda A 4672 4698 5965 5965 5286 5777 6288 6594Royal Exchange A 3602 4481 4329 4329 5115 5683 6279 6583Royal Exchange B 2020 1914 2082 2082 2049 2189 2354 2450St. Kevin's 5206 4910 5122 5122 5534 6064 6605 6897Wood Quay A 2743 2669 2606 2606 2781 2915 3062 3144

Dublin City overall

44015

506,211

47910

527612

50573

548,519

50573

555,636

53863

587,881

59020

627,023

64432

654,528

67460

527612Table 3.3.15 Population changes within study area based on ED population (CSO 2006,2011,2016) and population projections

3.6 Conclusions

3.6.1 This economic review highlights that all macro-economic indicators show that following on from recession, and having regard to a series of ongoing street works and interventions including Luas cross- city, the city centre has proved to be very resilient. Projections for significant growth in office floor space, residential population, additional journeys into the canal cordon and increases in Tourism and consumer demand all highlight the importance of managing that growth, and creating sufficient space on the road network through modal change to support the economic growth of the city centre.


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4.0 Review of international research on the public realm interventions and restrictions to central urban cores.

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 The College Green Plaza project is a key objective of the Dublin City Development Plan and public realm strategy to support Dublin’s economic competitiveness, attractiveness and livability as a modern European city. In consideration of the socio-economic impact of the pedestrian plaza with traffic and transport measures in the city centre it is important not to abstract the analysis as a balance between traffic management and economy. Planning is real-world activity and Dublin is far from the first or last European city to propose and experience changes in city centre environment. The global effect on the city centre is a vital consideration and there is significant body of evidence to review and learn from in framing the discussion on College Green

4.1.2 The success of city centre retail, business and tourism economies relate are dependent on range of factors that extend beyond reduced access to the city centre by private vehicles.

4.1.3 The DKM/EY 2016 Report ‘City Centre Transport Proposals Assessment on Retail market’ highlighted this very issue at Section 4, The Value of good public environment (p.29):

Attractive city centres are characterised by vibrant footpaths and public spaces, ease of movement, and efficient access arrangements, no matter what mode of transport is chosen. Copenhagen, Stockholm, Brussels, Budapest, Istanbul, London, Madrid, Rome, Florence, Milan and Amsterdam are only some of the cities where it is not possible to drive freely through defined areas. In fact, it is difficult to find a European city comparable to Dublin that has not moved to increasing restrictions on through traffic. People no longer expect to be able drive through or within centres unimpeded, but they do like to spend time on foot in city centres, enjoying the experience and the retail and cultural opportunities that they offer. City and transport authorities have found that the available road space is of more value when diverted to users other than cars, with the exception of those cars travelling to essential destinations in the City Centre itself, which include car parks which support retail activities.

4.1.4 In compiling this Further Information response, over 30 reports, books and articles on the impacts and success of pedestrianisation, public realm expansions and traffic restrictions were reviewed.

4.1.5 The 2010 European Commission Report on Urban Access Restrictions Areas reviewed projects in 58 cities, covering 18 countries and 16 Member States, dealing with (ARS) Area Restricted schemes, and LEZ (Low Emission Zones). The European Union funded FLOW project uses 20 case studies on the effects of mobility measures on congestion.

4.1.6 Dublin itself has experienced and incorporated significant changes in traffic management, public transport and public realm initiatives. These include Luas lines A and B, Luas Docklands expansion, Luas Cross-City, O’Connell Street public realm enhancements and traffic restrictions, Grafton street re- paving, Dublinbikes, Quality Bus Corridors, city centre speed reductions, 5-axel HGV ban and College Green ‘bus-gate’

4.1.7 This section refers to this significant body of research and the evidence to draw upon for central Dublin.


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4.2 Research Summary

4.2.1 The following table summarises the key findings of a broad range of research on the impact of public realm and area restriction schemes on cities around the world, with additional detail provided in the following sections. The most pertinent examples for the College Green project are cited first including Copenhagen, Seville, Ljubljana and Oxford. Nottingham is an interesting example where the new space played an important role in linked separate shopping districts in the city.

Literature Location Project Type ResultKastrup, M., 2013. Are cyclists good customers?

Copenhagen, Denmark.

Shopper Survey on total spend per modal use. 3000 Respondents all of whom had been shopping in Copenhagen city centre the week previous.

Car users spend approximately€2 billion per year, compared to a €4.5 billion spend by cyclists, public transport users and walkers. Non-car users account for 68% of the total revenue share.

Castillo-Manzano, J., et al., 2014. Extending pedestrianisation processes outside of the old city centre; conflict and benefits in the case of the city of Seville.

Seville, Spain. In 2009 the city of Seville extended its scheme of pedestrianisation of the historic centre out to streets on the periphery. This study attempted to understand if attitudes to the measures had changed. It did this through extensive surveys of both business owners and shoppers, over a two-year period.

In year one 25% of those surveyed claimed to have significantly increased their frequency of visits to the pedestrian streets, 47% stated they had increased the number of purchases made. In year two these figures increased further, with 33.5% claiming they visited more often, with 51% spending more.

FLOW, 2016. The role of walking and cycling in reducing congestion: A portfolio of measures.

Ljubljana, Slovenia.

FLOW is an EU funded project that seeks to place non- motorised transport on a par with motorised modes. In 2007 Ljubljana closed large swaths of the city centre to motorised traffic, creating a pedestrian area. This removed a main traffic artery from the city, one that regularly saw heavy congestion.

Rather than congestion increasing in areas surrounding the newly pedestrianised centre it was found that a modal shift occurred. The percentage of pedestrians rose from 19% in 2003, to 25% in 2013. Car use decreased over the same period from 58% to 51%.

Parkhurst, G., 2003. Regulating Cars and Buses in the City: The Case of Pedestrianisation in Oxford.

Oxford, England. A study on the impacts of the Oxford Transport Strategy (altered traffic routes and pedestrianisation of key areas) and public realm improvements in Oxford City centre on footfall, public transport and traffic.

Subsequent to the transport strategy, there was a 17% reduction in traffic entering the city centre. Car-park usage decreased, while numbers of bus users and those walking increased. Bus users enjoyed more reliable journey times due to a decrease in private cars, while footfall increased by 9% on the pedestrianised street.

Cheshmehzangi, A., 2015. The Reinvention of Liveability in Public Places: Interaction Mapping Analysis of Central Nottingham’s Improved Walkability.

Nottingham, England.

Old Market Square, in the centre of Nottingham, was pedestrianised by the local authority. Research sought to evaluate the impacts of this project through an analysis of pedestrian flows.

Outcome was deemed to be extremely successful as it strengthened the connections between two main shopping districts, creating a robust pedestrian flow in the city.Nottingham’s improved walkability has been considered wholly positive.

Banister, D., 1992. Traffic Calming in the United Kingdom: the implications for the local economy.

York, England Traffic restrictions were put in place in the centre of York, with minor pedestrianisation measures included. A survey of local business owners was

Prior to implementation the vast majority of businesses were opposed to the scheme. Only 25% remained opposed one year on, while the York Chamber of


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conducted one year after the restrictions were put in place.

Commerce accepted the benefits of the scheme. It was considered such a success that some streets were repaved with stone and full pedestrian measures introduced.

Transport for London, London, A shopper survey on the 4,746 surveys were conducted.2011. Town Centre Study. England. frequency of visits and modal Walkers were found to be the

share across several borough most frequent visitors to towntown centres in London. Main centres, with 51% visiting 5 oraim was to establish the more days. Cyclists were the nextcontribution made by bus users most frequent (38%), and busto retail. users followed with 26%. Car

users visited the least (16%). Interms of modal split of shoppers,36% used the bus, 28% walked,17% used train or tube, and 14%used the car.

Sandahl, j., & Lindh, C., Helsingborg, A comparison study of three In each of the five ‘effect1995. Impact of improving Jonkoping and Swedish towns where different dimension’ categories, the townthe attractiveness of town Orebro, Sweden. levels of town centre that implemented fullcentres. improvements were undertaken. pedestrianisation measures,

One area saw full Jonkoping, ranked number 1.pedestrianisation, one saw minor Retail turnover increased by 15%.pedestrianisation measures put Rent potential increased by 135in pace, while the final area was SEK per metre squared. Scoresused as a control having for location attractiveness andundergone no change to the visitor attitudes to place werepublic realm. Five ‘effect also highest in Jonkoping, whiledimensions’ were measured to the control town of Orebrorank the towns. finished last in each category.

Demir, H., et al., 2016. Istanbul, Turkey. A retailer survey conducted in the 54% of shopkeepers found thereEvaluation of post-implementation of was an increase in clientenvironmental and social pedestrianisation measures numbers. 40% reported animpacts of introduced in an historic quarter increase in turnover afterpedestrianisation in urban of Istanbul. pedestrianisation. In terms ofhistorical areas. real estate values, 70% of

shopkeepers claimed they saw anincrease. A vast majority of thosesurveyed, 82%, felt they werebenefitting frompedestrianisation.

Moule & Polyzoides. Lancaster, A report on the outcome of The report states that in theArchitect’s report, Main California, USA. public realm improvements, and three years since the project wasBoulevard revitalisation main street redesign in the city of completed there were 52 newproject. Lancaster, California. A ‘rambla’ businesses attracted to the area.

style district was created, de- Revenues rose 119% in 2012prioritising a major arterial route from the pre-project figures infor traffic. 2007. Property values increased

by 9.5%, against a widerbackdrop of a 1.25% fall in thesame period. Private investmentin the area was estimated at$130 million.

European Commission, Cambridge, A summary report that featured All four locations showcased2004. Reclaiming City England. several European cities in which ranges of traffic ‘evaporation’Streets for People. Kajaani, Finland. various traffic calming/reduction, whereby car use decreases as

Strasbourg, and/or pedestrianisation alternative modes are preferred.France. measures were introduced. In terms of commercial activity,Wolverhampton, there were no significant lossesEngland. in trade, instead some areas

reported increases while othersfound majority support forschemes from retailers.


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Yim Yiu, C., 2009. Impact of pedestrianisation scheme on retail rent – an empirical study in Hong Kong

Hong Kong, China.

A controlled empirical study was performed to understand the effects of pedestrianisation on retail rents. The study focussed on two retail streets in close proximity, one of which underwent pedestrianisation measures, while the other saw no change. A cross sectional study over two time periods was then performed.

Rateable retail values were obtained from the Hong Kong government and it was found that the pedestrianisation scheme had significantly increased the retail rental values of properties on the pedestrian street by approximately 17%.83% of retailers in the pedestrian area reported increases in turnover, compared with 20% of retailers outside the area.

NYC Department of Transport, 2010. Green Light for Midtown Evaluation Report.

New York, USA. An evaluation report that studied the effects of the changes implemented on Broadway in Manhattan. Sections of the diagonal route were closed to vehicular traffic, with pedestrian plazas put in their place, particularly around Times Square and Herald Square.

Using GPS data obtained from the 13,000 NY taxis, it was found that journey times decreased North/South, while East/West showed slight increases. Bus speeds were found to increase by 13%, and on the routes the most affected by changes it was found that passenger wait times decreased by 50%. Pedestrian volumes increased on both squares where measures were implemented, with pedestrian injuries dropping by 40% and 53% in the two locations.

British Parking Association, 2013. Re- Think! Parking on the High Street: Guidance on Parking Provision in Town and City Centres.

United Kingdom Comprehensive collaborative research by the British Parking Association, the Association of Town& City Management and others into the relationship between town centre prosperity and car parking.

It was found that those towns which had higher levels of footfall also generated higher spends and had better quality retail offerings. Towns which had an average footfall of over 300,000 per week saw annual spends of over £500 million per year. Towns with footfall of between 150,000 and 200,000 saw annual spend drop significantly to £150 million.

Living Streets, 2014. The Pedestrian Pound.

United Kingdom A report that studies the implications of pedestrian measures across the UK, using case studies and an in-depth literature review. Four performance indicators were identified which included; impact of existing business performance, urban regeneration, changing perceptions, and business diversity.

The study found that well- planned improvements can boost footfall and trading by up to 40%. Investments in schemes that improve walkability and cycling access provide a ‘competitive return’ when compared to other transport projects, increasing retail sales by 30% in some cases. Two of the towns studied showed increased footfall of 25% on Saturdays, which equated to£1.4 million in increased expenditure.

Table 4.1 Key findings of research on the impact of public realm and area restriction schemes on cities


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4.3 Research overview

The Adaptable Consumer

4.31 While traffic restrictions and pedestrianisation measures reduce the numbers of cars in an area, this does not lead to a reduction in consumer numbers. Instead it appears that consumers are far more adaptable than business owners may perceive and are willing to switch modes of transport.

4.3.2 The concept of ‘traffic evaporation’ is used to explain the disappearance in traffic volumes that occurs subsequent to traffic calming measures, or pedestrianisation schemes (Cairns et al., 1998). Where traffic models would anticipate increases in congestion in both the areas undergoing traffic restrictions, and the surrounding streets, what is instead found is that after an initial, immediate rise in congestion, traffic volumes actually decrease over time. The cause of this is not due to car users refusing to travel into the city anymore, instead traffic ‘evaporation’ is attributed to changing modes of transport.

4.3.3 A study by Parkhurst (2003) focused on pedestrianisation measures introduced in the city of Oxford, England. Although smaller in terms of population, Oxford boasts many similarities to Dublin, with its city- center university, large tourist numbers, and pre-existing reliance on buses as a form of transport for the local population. The study examines the Oxford Transport Strategy (OTS) which saw the introduction of altered traffic routes, the pedestrianisation of one of the main shopping streets, and an enhancement of the city center environment. The study found that due to the OTS, there was a 17% reduction in traffic entering Oxford city center. Car park usage declined, while bus-use and walking increased. On Cornmarket street, which was the one street fully pedestrianized, footfall increased by 9%. It was also found that those using the bus enjoyed more reliable journey times to the city thanks to a decrease in private car use. The phasing in stage of the OTS coincided with major service infrastructure works, with the replacement of the city’s water mains, and this did lead to a slight decrease in trade. However, once the OTS was fully implemented and the construction works had finished, trading increased. In fact, Cornmarket Street (the only fully pedestrianized street) saw sales in 2001 exceed those from any of the previous five years.

4.3.4 A 2004 European Commission report entitled ‘Reclaiming City Streets for People’ sought to identify issues related to quality of life in European cities and find solutions for them. It specifically related to ideas that involve traffic reduction measures and pedestrianisation of streets, and used several examples of cities that have benefitted from such schemes. Kajaani, a town in the north of Finland, is on such example. A decision was made to close the main square and a section of the high street, and pedestrianize both in 1996. The square allowed 13,000 vehicles drive through it per day, prior to closure. Since then the streets adjacent to the square have seen traffic rise from 1,000 to 6,500 per day, but there has also been an ‘evaporation’ of traffic, whereby some former car-users adopt new modes of travel. In terms of commercial activity, 52% of retailers felt that the scheme had improved their business.

4.3.5 Between the years 1987 and 1991 the city of Wolverhampton, England, undertook a staged removal of private car traffic from the city centre. Once the strategy was fully implemented, only buses, cyclists, and emergency vehicles were allowed enter the area. This has been considered a huge improvement to the city with Wolverhampton receiving several public space awards since the completion of the project. Instead of traffic and congestion increasing elsewhere across the city there have been further indications of traffic ‘evaporation’ occurring. Public transport usage has seen a rise which indicates that former car users continue to access the city, but by other means instead.

4.3.6 The city of Strasbourg provides further similar examples to the proposed changes in Dublin. In the early 90s it was decided to build two new tramways and reduce the dominance of private car use within the city. Opposition to the project was severe, particularly from local retailers who feared that they would lose customers who could no longer travel via car. The results of the changes saw a significant shift in modal use, from car to public transport and cycling. For retailers, fears were allayed as a number of businesses have actually seen an increase in their trading figures. In fact, several retailers are claimed to be calling for further pedestrianisation measures to be implemented.


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4.3.7 The city has continued to introduce measures that regulate/control motorised traffic, such as the ‘Plan Pieton’ scheme which saw traffic calming measures introduced around one of the busiest parts of the city. Road reallocation measures were introduced that prioritised pedestrians. Despite fears that traffic flow would collapse, the area is thriving. Bus waiting times have reduced by 40%, while pedestrian flow through the area has improved dramatically.

4.3.8 The European Union funded FLOW project is a project that ‘’aims to put walking and cycling on an equal footing with motorised modes as a solution to tackle urban congestion’’ (FLOW, 2017). Often walking and cycling are seen as ‘nice additional extras’ in policy, with vehicular modes prioritised. Flow aims to highlight the ability of these non-motorized modes to combat congestion, among other things, in cities. Using 20 case studies, a report issued by FLOW analysed the effects of mobility measures on congestion. One of the case studies focussed on the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia. The capital city is home to 281,000 inhabitants and has seen increasing numbers of daily commuters into its centre. In 2007 the city centre was closed to all motor vehicles, with this newly pedestrianised area being gradually enlarged each year. Measures were implemented to promote non-motorised travel, tackle congestion, improve environmental conditions, and improve the modal share. In 2013, a key part of one of the city’s main streets was closed to traffic. It is now only accessible to cyclists, pedestrians, and public transport. In terms of modal share, the percentage of pedestrians rose from 19% in 2003 to 25% in 2013, while car users decreased from 58% to 51%. Inhabitants in the city centre saw even greater changes, with walkers increasing from 33% to 53%, and car users decreasing from 47% to 19%.

Changing Perceptions

4.3.9 The previous section highlights various studies that have concluded that impeding access for private vehicles in cities does not necessarily mean there will be less people entering the city.

4.3.10 Instead research indicates that consumers are adaptable, and if car access is hindered, they will instead resort to other modes of transport to access the city. However, while there exists a plethora of research that provides examples of the positive effects of measures such as pedestrianisation, resistance is still felt from business owners and retailers.

4.3.11 There are several cases where retailers who were initially opposed to such schemes have radically altered their opinions once these schemes have been implemented. Banister (1992) undertook a study on the implications of traffic calming on the local economy. Using York as a case study, Banister elaborated on the measures that were introduced in the city, where one of the largest pedestrianised zones in Europe (at the time) was developed. In this case pedestrianisation was not total, rather it was enforced through restrictions on when vehicles had access to the area (at least initially). These restrictions were introduced in 1987, one year later a survey was conducted to find out if objections still existed, as the local business owners had been vehemently opposed. It was found that now only 25% of businesses continued to object, while the Chamber of Commerce had come to accept the benefits of the restrictions. Due to the success of the scheme it was decided to completely repave the city centre streets in stone. In terms of retail, Banister cites Caton (1990) who found that rents in pedestrian streets were 45% higher than in streets that serviced cars in 1987, in 1989 they were 80% higher.

4.3.12 In their research on the effects of pedestrianisation on commercial and retail areas, Kumar and Ross (2006) selected Khao San Road in Bangkok as their area of study, and interviewed stakeholders before and after the street was pedestrianised in 2001. Respondents were asked about their sales volumes before and after the pedestrianisation. 47% stated sales had increased, 35% considered there was no change, while 18% saw a decrease. With respect to rents, 52% of respondents saw no change in rent, while 26% believed there had been an increase. A before and after comparison of business-owner’s opinions on the scheme provide a useful insight into how perceptions can dramatically change. 20% of respondents agreed with the idea of pedestrianizing the street before the scheme was implemented, after implementation this rose to 80%. Before the scheme 30% disagreed with it, but afterwards this decreased to only 10%.

4.3.13 Pedestrianisation measures were introduced in parts of Istanbul’s historic peninsula, Demir at al. (2016) undertook to evaluate the impacts of this through focussing on shopkeepers and workers in the locality.


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While pedestrianisation was not welcomed prior to its implementation, the researchers’ surveys found that 54% of shopkeepers found an increase in client numbers. 40% indicated there was an increase in turnover after pedestrianisation. 70% found that there was an increase in real estate values. The researchers felt that these findings were indicative of the recreational nature of pedestrianisation. It creates a more welcoming environment for people to visit, and while this certainly increases footfall, it does not necessarily increase turnover for the surrounding retailers. However, there appears to be no indication of a reduction and over time it is considered that regular levels of heightened visitor numbers are likely to have a positive effect on retailers in the area. This is supported by the fact that 82% of those shopkeepers surveyed felt that they were benefitting from pedestrianisation.

The Benefits of Pedestrianisation

4.3.14 Union Street is a street in the centre of Aberdeen, Scotland. DTZ Pieda Consulting performed an assessment on the pedestrianisation of Union Street (USP), and its likely impacts. This was undertaken through stakeholder interviews and economic projections. For the retail sector the outlook was positive. 50% of survey respondents felt that USP would encourage them to make more visits and spend more time in the city centre, while 30% felt that it would increase the number of visits they made to shop for clothing and shoes. Turnover for retailers in the areas was estimated at £482 million per annum. An average increase in turnover of 4%, because of USP, was anticipated, which would result in an additional£18 million in turnover per annum. This would have further positive implications; ‘’such an increase in turnover would imply an increase of some 270 employee jobs in the sector across the city centre as a whole. The increase in retained incomes associated with these additional jobs is estimated at £2.2m’’ (2003: 41). For the hospitality sector, there were also expected benefits, the results of the study indicate that there would be a ‘’modest increase in turnover of 2% for businesses in the hospitality sector as a result of USP…This would indicate a potential increase in employment of some 90 jobs and an increase in local incomes of £0.6m’’ (ibid:43).

4.3.15 Similarly, an evaluation of the likely impacts of pedestrianisation was carried out in the city of Valdemoro, which is a suburb of Madrid, Spain. Again, this was performed through stakeholder consultation and surveys, with emphasis placed on consulting with the business sector and other commercial representatives. To address the concerns of business owners a study was carried out which sought to establish a value for the changes to various aspects that would be impacted. It looked at the two areas that would be pedestrianized, as well as the overall road network. It was found that there would be an overall increase in property value of €55,957,525 million. Income generated for the public administration would amount to €4,959,360 million. ‘Market wealth’ was estimated to be €12,512,455 million. In terms of job creation due to the pedestrian scheme, it was felt that there would be 146 self-employed positions created, while there would be a further 73 contract roles created.

4.3.16 Sandahl and Lindh (1995) conducted research on three Swedish towns using five dimensions that could be effected by pedestrianisation and town center improvement schemes. Each town had two centers were changes occurred, while one center was selected as a control, as it had no alterations made at all. Each town was ranked based on the number and degree of improvements made, under the five dimensions of; retail turnover, rent potential, capitalized profit, attraction of location, and visitor attitudes. Jonkoping (East) introduced extensive pedestrianisation measures and it ranked first in every category. For retail turnover, it experienced between 10% and 15% increases. Rent potential was increased by 135 SEK per square metre, which far surpassed the second placed town which saw an increase of 85 SEK. Location attractiveness is based on an additive model that sums up various factors such as; good neighbours, accessibility to public transport, and even parking spaces. Jonkoping (East) has again topped this table for location attractiveness with a score of +33, while the only other area that initiated pedestrian schemes, Orebro (South), coming in second with +20. The control district of Orebro (North) saw its attractiveness score fall by -10.

4.3.17 The city of Seville extended pedestrianisation schemes outside the historic centre. Castillo-Manzano et al. (2014) studied the effects of pedestrianisation when the scheme is being implemented outside of the traditional city-centre areas that it is usually reserved for vehicular traffic. The two streets pedestrianised


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are Asuncion Street and San Jacinto Street, which in total saw 23,922 vehicles use them daily prior to pedestrianisation. The areas had a strong tradition of retail use, but were also considered the noisiest areas within the city. There was a strong anti-pedestrianisation movement, led by local business owners in the area who felt that the loss of surface level parking would impact their revenue.

4.3.18 Surveys were undertaken over the course of two years to discover any changes in opinions on the scheme. In the first year 25% of those surveyed had significantly increased the frequency of their visits to the area, while 47% say they have increased the number of purchases they make in the area. In year 2 there were further increases with 33.5% claiming the visit more often, 51% say they spend more in the area. Over 90% of respondents’ state that the ambience of the area is now livelier, while none of the points raised by detractors (inconvenience of roadworks, difficulties in accessibility, and harm done to smaller traditional retailers) are stated by those surveyed.

4.3.19 Architecture firm Moule & Polyzoides were involved in the redesign of the main street in the city of Lancaster, California. Lancaster Boulevard once suffered from high-speed traffic, poor pedestrian facilities, excessive on-street parking and reduced retail activity. The city itself was a typical Californian style city that developed in a sprawl. In 2009 the boulevard was redesigned and developed into a ‘rambla’ style district, with the adjacent streets also redesigned to improve the overall public realm. The project saw paths widened, awning created, fewer traffic lanes, and traffic restrictions put in place.

4.3.20 Since the project materialised the boulevard has attracted 52 new businesses. Revenue in 2012 rose 119% from the 2007 figures. Property values in the downtown area also rose by 9.5%, against a wider backdrop of a 1.25% fall. Private investment was estimated at $130 million, while over 800 permanent jobs were created. The project itself has generated an estimated $280 million, while over 145,000 square feet of commercial space has been constructed or rehabilitated.

Study on Urban Access Restrictions

4.3.21 The EC Study on Urban Access Restrictions (2010) examined a broad range of schemes that employed various techniques in traffic and environmental control restricting access to particular cordons of city centres. AR schemes can broadly be classified into four types:

1) Point based (e.g. restriction to cross a bridge or to enter a small section of city)2) Cordon based: a restriction is applied for crossing a cordon, and may vary with time of day, direction of travel, vehicle type and location on the cordon. There could be a number of cordons with different rules/prices.3) Area licence based pricing: a restriction is applied for driving within an area during a period of time. The rules may vary with time and vehicle type.4) Distance or time based: it is essentially a pricing restriction based upon the distance or time a vehicle travels along a congested route or in a specified area, and may vary with time, vehicle type and location.

4.3.22 For example, the report notes that Limited Traffic Zones are in force in almost every major Italian city, put in place in order to reduce congestion and pollution, thus making city centres more pleasant for residents and visitors alike. Each zone has its own regulations: some are restricted to certain hours, some to residents only, some to cars with certain permits.

4.3.23 The primary objective of the study is to provide a comprehensive overview of all existing and planned urban traffic access restriction zones, addressing the main environmental, economic, social and legal aspects and targeting the facilitation of the exchange of best practices. During the investigation of 417 cities identified, 58 responded to a detailed questionnaire.

4.3.24 The basis for the report is the Action Plan on urban mobility adopted by the EU on September 30th, 2009. While it implicitly recognizes that the decision on whether or not to adopt an ARS should be left to cities themselves, it stresses the importance of promoting the exchange of best practices in all areas of urban sustainable mobility. In line with such strategic objective, this document investigates the state-of-the-art of Access Restriction Schemes (ARS) in Europe and identify actions in which the European Union could

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engage to promote better awareness of the ARS concept, of the implementation options and of their effects, and to foster the dissemination and exchange of best practice in this field. To gather, organize and interpret information on the effects of ARS implementation , each scheme was analysed in terms of impacts on Network, Economy, Environment, Acceptability, Equity and Livability. It is noted there are considerable information gaps for the most part regarding environmental aspects, economic issues and liveability.

4.3.25 Within the general theme of economic impact the local economy and its primary function i.e. the commercial operation of businesses in towns and cities is considered. Much of this, in fact, relies – in transport-related terms – on good access to services for employers, employees and customers alike. The report notes that for most businesses, concerns over a scheme’s ability to maintain and improve their business operation would appear to be the major barrier to endorsing any access restriction scheme.

City ARS impacts on urban economyBurgos Indicator: Value of buildings

Data: 600 €/m2 of increaseDurham The majority of businesses (83%) have not altered their servicing arrangements

following the introduction of the charge.Edinburgh A very marginal impact on the Lothian economy – in terms of value added and jobs this

is marginally negative.A redistribution effect within the area of both jobs and population: population would be slightly higher in the city centre and outside the city; there would have been some movement of jobs out of the city into the surrounding areas.

London Congestion Charging

Indicator: Sales growth in the Central Congestion Charging ZoneData: 2.1% per annum pre-charge (2000-2002), 4.4% per annum post-charge (2003-2007)Indicator: Surveyed sales performance of retail businesses located within WEZ Data: 24% reported increase, 7% reported decrease

Rome The better livability inside the zones has increased the value of all the buildings and commercial activities.

Stockholm Indicator: turnover before and after the implementation of the congestion tax for three statistical sectors: retail, wholesale and sales of motor vehicles and fuel.

Data: The results show that the congestion tax has not had any negative impact on the overall turnover in the inner city when compared to the rest of Stockholm county. Both the retail and wholesale sectors show a more positive development of turnover in the inner city than in the rest of the county

Trondheim In spite of the toll ring, the city centre has had a modest growth in trade.The annulment of road user charging did not lead to an upswing in city centre trade during 2006.

Table 4.2 Summary of ARS impacts on urban economy

4.3.26 For Trondheim, Tretvik (1999) reports an analysis of the impacts on turnover within and outside the Trondheim toll ring. Before implementation, a shopping survey concluded that 25% of shoppers were likely to change the location or timing of their shopping activity in response to the toll ring. A second survey in 1992, a year after implementation, recorded that 10% had in fact changed the destination or timing of their shopping trips. However, the impact on retail turnover did not reflect this downturn in activity. In 1992 the Chamber of Commerce concluded that there had been hardly any effect on trade as a result of the toll ring. Longer-term time series data from 1987 to 1997 on Trondheim’s share of county retail sales and on annual turnover in different parts of Trondheim showed that Trondheim as a whole, and the Central Business District in particular, had been losing market share between 1987 and 1990, but that the city’s market share within the county grew in most years from 1991 to 1997, and that the toll ring’s share was maintained throughout that period. While turnover will be affected by a wide range of factors, there is no evidence to suggest that the toll ring adversely affected trade within the ring.

4.3.27 In London, monitoring the impacts of congestion charging has been completed by Transport for London, which made the following conclusions:

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• The introduction of charging in February 2003 coincided with a temporary economic slowdown, as well as a wider set of local, national and international conditions that were not favourable to general economic performance.

• Analysis of several indicators of economic performance, including measures of business population and turnover, did not reveal evidence of a significant congestion charging impact.

• Shops within the inner core of the charging zone found that their rental values increased.• TfL’s business surveys conducted in 2004 showed a continued recognition of the transport

benefits associated with congestion charging.

4.3.28 Other work conducted during 2005 found that trends in business registrations for VAT remained strong and that within the charging zone, the retail sector has increased its share of enterprises and employment since 2003. A more recent evaluation by TfL in 2008, using key indicators such as sales, profitability and business start-up figures, has shown that there has been no discernible impact – positive or negative – on overall business performance as a result of congestion charging in central London. This does not rule out the possibility that some businesses in certain sectors may have been affected. However, any cumulative impacts from the introduction of charging have not been evident in terms of business and economic output. (TfL, 2008).

4.3.30 Quddus, Carmel and Bell (2007) also undertook research to assess the impact of the London congestion charge on retail sales. The modelling work showed the association of sales from John Lewis on Oxford Street with the congestion charge, the (then) closure of the London Underground Central Line, the state of the economy, the consumer price index, the number of overseas visitors to London, trend and seasonality. When examining the impact on sales in the central London retail sector as a whole, the results suggest that there was no impact. Whilst there is a degree of support amongst the business community for congestion charging (London First, 2006), it is also believed that many smaller businesses may have experienced a drop in custom which could have a likely impact on reducing future investment decisions.

4.3.31 Stockholmsförsöket (2006a) reported that the effects and impact on the local economy are dependent in both the short and long term on how the surplus revenue is returned to the region. What is apparent from the trial is that the business community is dependent on a well-functioning road transport system. The ‘major winners’ from the trial were professional and service road users, who made substantial time savings that were worth more than congestion tax paid. The short term impact of introducing a scheme on commerce and other business sectors studied showed only minor impacts.

4.3.32 The turnover surveys that were done indicated that the Stockholm trial had little effect on retail trade in the region. Furthermore, the report concluded that the trial did not have a negative influence on small businesses as a whole in the charging zone. This conclusion was also reached in Daunfeldt et al (2009). This is not to say that individual companies were not adversely affected. Congestion taxes do have both positive and negative effects on costs for businesses. It is the balance of these costs against the net gains that will influence whether or not urban road user charging is acceptable to the business community.

4.3.33 Concerning the urban economy impacts, the value of building has increased both in Burgos and Rome, while the Trondheim city centre has noticed a modest growth in trade.

Walkability4.3.34 The idea that improving walkability is addressed in research by the SGS Economics and Planning

Consultancy (2014). SGS performed an analysis of Melbourne’s CBD and the existing conditions for walking, undertaken in conjunction with the City of Melbourne municipality. Various types of pedestrian networks in the city were defined; standard footpaths, arcades, road crossings. Average walk speed differed between category, with busy intersections showing the slowest average speeds. Travel times across the city centre were then developed, with optimum routes pinpointed, while bottlenecks and problem areas were also discovered. A measure was then created called Effective Job Density (EJD) which is determined by creating an index for property based on two variables; travel time from point a to point b, and the number of jobs at point b. The findings of the research discovered that more people walk on Melbourne’s Collins Street than drive over the Westgate Bridge, which is one of the key traffic arteries of


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the city. It was also discovered that some pedestrian routes allow for average speeds of 4km, while others are reduced to 1km because of obstacles related to vehicular traffic. The slow pedestrian routes are claimed to have a significant impact on productivity. Estimates of economic benefit if the pedestrian flow was optimised amount to $1.3 billion per year.

4.3.35 Cheshmehzangi (2015) analysed the walkability of a new public realm in Nottingham, England. The local authority pedestrianised a historic market square in the centre of the city and the researcher’s aim was to establish some of the impacts of these changes on liveability. The pedestrianisation of the Old Market Square allowed for benefits to the retail sector as well as improving liveability; ‘’The Old Market Square, as a successful example, has not only improved the liveability and spatial use of the central part of the city, but has also strengthened connections between the two shopping centres, creating a robust pedestrian flow in the city’’ (ibid:437).

4.3.36 This concept of a ‘robust pedestrian flow’ has relevance to the College Green proposal where the development of a pedestrian plaza would dramatically improve the flow of pedestrians between Dublin’s two primary shopping streets, Henry Street and Grafton Street. Currently pedestrian attempts to cross College Green experience severance from vehicular traffic that flows from Dame Street onto Westmoreland Street. Both the traffic impediments and the sheer numbers of pedestrians mean that pedestrian flow is far from fully optimised.

4.3.37 The Danish urban designer and architect, Jan Gehl reflects on the importance of walkability in his 2010 book ‘Cities for People’. For Gehl, it is vital that cities develop in a manner that encourages walking and creates an environment conducive to it. He discusses the concept of an ‘acceptable walking distance’, which he accepts is a fluid concept that requires the consideration of several variables. Some people are quite happy to walk several kilometres, while very short walks can be difficult for other people. Generally, it is considered that 500 metres is an acceptable distance to walk for most people, with that taking about five minutes on average. Gehl points out, however, that the acceptable distance can depend on how interesting and/or pleasant the walk is.

4.3.38 The comparison is then made between the cities of London and Sydney, where pedestrians are faced with regular waits at crossings, and the city of Copenhagen, where pedestrianisation of large swaths of the city centre has occurred. In London, or Sydney, the ability to walk 500 metres in five minutes is often unrealistic due to the myriad obstacles in place. Gehl claims that waits of between 15% to 50% of total ‘walking time’ are common. In Copenhagen’s main street of Stroget, the average waiting time is only 3% of the total walk time. The argument is that because of its various public realm improvements that favour pedestrians, a walk through the city of Copenhagen, via Stroget, can take only 12 minutes. As the previously mentioned research indicates, improving the time taken to walk a city’s streets can actually provide benefits to the local economy. Similarly, creating a more walkable environment, one that is enjoyable for pedestrians to traverse, will mean that those pedestrians are willing to travel slightly further by foot, if the conditions allow for it. Under Gehl’s definition of an ‘acceptable walking distance’, combined with his idea of creating an interesting and safe environment to walk in, then it is realistic/ preferable to walk from Henry Street to Grafton Street, via a pedestrianised College Green. Figure 4.1 shows the 10 minute walk catchment included in section 16 of the EIS. This area which is includes Trinity, Grafton Street district, Temple Bar and the main core district north of the river including O’Connell Street and Henry Street. The map highlights the position of the College Green within the city centre as a central hub and highly connected area.

Henry Street O’Connell Street

Temple Bar

College Green Trinity College Dublin

Grafton Street District


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Figure 4.1 Study Area – 10 minute walk catchment

Figure 4.2. 69 people in cars, on one bus, and on bikes (Source: Cycling Promotion Fund, Canberra, Australia)

Modal Share4.3.39 A common theme that occurs in almost every case study covered during the literature review is that of

business opposition to proposals to restrict vehicular access to urban centres, while the general public are keen to see pedestrian schemes, or traffic calming measures, implemented. This is based on the perception that car users account for the majority of consumers, and therefore reducing access for private vehicles will result in fewer car users shopping, which in turn will result in a lower turnover.

400 373

350

300 282

250 226 239

200 188

150

100

50

0 Bicycle Bus Car Rail Walking


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4.3.40 A 2011 report commissioned by Transport for London sought to establish the contribution made by bus users and other modes to viability of town centres across London. The researchers undertook an extensive survey of consumers across several London Boroughs, amounting to 4,746 respondents. Bus users accounted for 38% of the total number of respondents, while 28% of those surveyed walked. Only 14% of the total number of respondents used the car. In terms of frequency of visits it was found that walkers visited the most frequently, with 52% visiting the town centre 5 days per week or more. Cyclists were next, with 38% visiting 5 days or more, while 26% of bus users travelled that regularly. Car users were found to be the least frequent visitors with only 16% of them making the journey 5 days or more. Car users came out on top in the average daily spend category. Car users would spend £41, train/tube users £38, bus £32, walkers £26, and cyclists £21. However, when this was extended to weekly and monthly expenditure, the car users again lagged behind other modes. On average per week walkers spent the most at £93, while car users spent £56, while on a monthly basis walkers’ average spend was £373, while car users would spend £226. Effectively the findings of the report were that car users were the least frequent visitors to town centres and overall would spend less that every other modal user, with the exception of cyclists. Those who chose to walk were both the highest average spenders in the longer term, and visited the most often.

Figure 4.2. Average Monthly Spend per Mode

4.3.41 New Zealand’s Transport Agency sought to ’investigate the economic impact of transport choice and road space allocation on retail activity’ in a 2013 study on road space reallocation. In order to determine the economic value of the different transport modes the average spend and frequency of modal users was quantified through 1744 shopper surveys carried out across three cities. 144 retailer surveys were also conducted, which accounted for 26% of the total number of retailers in the selected locations. The results of these surveys concluded that; ‘’sustainable transport users account for 40% of the total spend in the shopping areas. [They also show] that pedestrians and cyclists contribute a higher economic spend proportionately to the modal share and are important to the economic viability of local shopping areas’’ (2013: 8).

4.3.42 The Oregon Transportation Research and Education Consortium commissioned a study into consumer behaviour and travel mode choices in the city of Portland. Surveys were conducted based on the type of establishment the consumer visited and the results were analysed on this basis. Restaurants, bars, and convenience stores formed one group, while supermarkets formed another. Again, it was found that car users tended to spend more per visit than other modes, however, in terms of frequency of visit they came last in this study. In terms of monthly expenditure it was found that cyclists were the highest spenders in almost all categories, the only exception being in the supermarket category. It was found that car users would spend more than any other mode in supermarkets per month. The results of the survey were summarised as follows; ‘’Bicyclists, pedestrians, and transit riders are competitive consumers: when


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demographics and socioeconomics are controlled for, mode choice does not have statistically significant impact on consumer spending at convenience stores, drinking establishments, and restaurants. When trip frequency is accounted for, the average monthly expenditures by customer modes of travel reveal that bicyclists, transit users and pedestrians are competitive consumers, and for all businesses except supermarkets, spend more on average than those who drive’’ (Clifton, K. et al., 2012).

4.3.43 The focus of research by Kastrup (2013) was on the impact cyclists had on the local retail economy in Copenhagen (however the study included observations on other modes too). Conducted in 2012, the study surveyed 3,000 people who had been shopping in Copenhagen city centre the previous week. It was found that between them, cyclists and walkers accounted for 58% of all shopping trips, with 35% cycling and 23% walking. Car users accounted for 20% of the total number of trips. Cyclists, users of public transport, and people walking, between them, spend 4.5 billion Euro per year in ‘street level’ shops in Copenhagen, compared to approximately 2 billion Euro by car users. In terms of total revenue share (excluding shopping malls), non-car users account for 68% of the total. Again, it was found that although car users spend the most per trip, their visits are less frequent and over the longer term this means that they contribute less towards revenue than the other modes combined.

H2020 Flow – Dublin Partner City

4.3.44 FLOW is a European project funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme which aims to tackle urban road congestion. The FLOW Project was set up to meet the challenge of “significantly reducing urban road congestion and improving the financial and environmental sustainability of urban transport” by improving the understanding of how walking and cycling measures have the potential to reduce urban congestion in European Cities. Its aim was to ensure that overall assessment of transport benefits of infrastructure projects would place walking and cycling on an equal footing with motorised transport modes when developing solutions to tackle urban congestion. This has been achieved by developing a methodology and tools to assess the ability of walking and cycling measures to reduce congestion in European cities. Dublin City is a Partner City in the Consortium that includes five other European Cities, Universities, Mobility Experts, European Cyclists Federation, Walk 21 and PTV a leading traffic modelling software development organisation.

4.3.45 FLOW has developed assessment tools that are intended to become the standard for European cities to evaluate effects of walking and cycling measures on improving overall mobility capacity. The tools include congestion impact assessment (including: socio-economic impact; an assessment of soft measures e.g. campaigns; congestion evaluation based on key performance indicators; and cost benefit analysis) and multi-modal traffic modelling. Traffic modelling software has been calibrated for Dublin City’s two sites, College Green and the Grand Canal Cycle Route to analyse the relationship of cyclist and pedestrian movements as part of overall capacity and the development of robust multi-modal traffic models.

4.3.46 The multi-modal modelling and impact assessment carried out has established that the proposed pedestrianisation of College Green will improve overall mobility and accommodate or the order of 700 additional people travelling through the corridor during the peak hour as well as reductions in total direct PM emission and reduction in total travel time for all users

4.5 Conclusion

4.5.1 The literature referenced during the course of this review provides robust evidence, that the effects of pedestrianisation are generally beneficial to the local economy of the area undergoing such public realm improvements. The range of cities, states, and countries covered in this review (Aberdeen, Bangkok, California, Copenhagen, Istanbul, Ljubljana, London, Kajaani, Madrid, Melbourne, New Zealand, Nottingham, Oxford, Portland, Strasbourg, Sweden, and Wolverhampton) is a clear indication that Dublin’s plans are part of a global trend for improvement of traditional core city areas.

4.5.2 College Green already possesses all of the required attributes for a successful pedestrian plaza. It is already a focal point of the city and sees some of the highest levels of pedestrian footfall. Pedestrians currently must compete with vehicular traffic in an environment that is unsupportive of walkability.


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Already there are traffic calming measures in place that restrict private car access, developing on this and creating a totally pedestrianised area would enhance the pedestrian experience of the area and increase both footfall and flow, both of which have been proven to benefit the surrounding local economy. As with other cities in this review, business groups are naturally concerned regarding the potential impact on city economy. While it anticipated that there will be period of adaption during and post construction of works as the city adapts to new movement patterns, as it has been shown that consumers are adaptable when it comes to their mode of transport, and a reduction in private cars usually means an increase in public transport figures. Dublin City Council are committed to ensuring access remains to all business and carparks and together with the National Transport Authority are in the process of preparing a signage strategy to improve and strengthen the Orbital routes and access to the car parks.


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5.0 Analysis of impact of change of traffic flows and modal change.

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 An Bord Pleanala has requested that Dublin City Council address Third Party concerns regarding the impacts of the proposed College Green Plaza development in combination with other transport measures on accessibility to the city centre and the consequences for the economic performance and competitiveness of the city centre.

5.1.2 This section of the report examines the impact of projected journey growth and modal shift as well as general economic and demographic growth within the canal cordon as applied to economic multipliers such as turnover and consumer spend and the potential impact on retail environment, business and tourism This section has regard to analysis of the traffic model from Item 2 of the Further Information response.

5.1.3 The Board has outlined 3 components of the city centre’s performance and competitiveness; Retail, Business and Tourism and identified two measures of access; private vehicles and bus services. Section 3 of this report has already set out a comprehensive review of the city’s performance and growth trends. Therefore, this section considers the impacts of the proposal at a more micro level.

5.1.4 It is noted that the Board’s request associates taxi and private vehicle access in the same sentence where the Further Information item raises the issue of “potential reduced access to the city centre by private vehicles, taxis etc.” This may be taken to infer they have similar properties, whereas the access characteristics of the two modes are clearly entirely different with taxis continuing to benefit from use of bus lanes. This response shall clarify these two are separate elements and discusses the impact on taxis in association with bus services.

5.1.5 An Bord Pleanála’s request also infers that the re-routing of bus routes and relocation of bus stops will automatically entail a displacement of bus customers during both the construction/operational stages, severance of routes, increased journey times and costs. While bus customers will experience changes to their routes and normal bus stops in the short term, this should be placed in the overall context of the Dublin Transport Study’s objective to reduce journey times, improve services and increase the bus modal share.

5.1.6 This response is structured to present the components of change (road space reallocation for private vehicles bus routes, bus stops and taxi ranks) and address the potential socio-economic impact on Retail, Business and Tourism.

5.2 Road Space reallocation from private vehicles to other modes

5.2.1 The traffic management measures related to the proposed plaza development, and other separate schemes are outlined in section 2 of this report. This is placed in the context of the Dublin Transport Study’s objective to accommodate significant additional trips into the city centre, which can only be catered for through the reallocation of road space from low intensity users (private vehicles) to high capacity public bus services. This is reflected in a projected change in modal split for public transport from 16% in 2018 to 30% in 2035.

5.2.2 The traffic analysis of the EIAR has reviewed the projected change in traffic flows in the local area in terms of changes in traffic volume. Figure 5.1 is incorporated from the Traffic section of the EIAR prepared by Arup. The transport analysis finds that as general traffic movement through College Green will be restricted in any event once Luas Cross City becomes operational (the do-minimum scenario). The primary differences in traffic patterns associated with the proposed project relate to changes from the diversion of buses and taxis to other routes, and the impact of supporting traffic management measures, such as the proposed removal of through traffic from Parliament Street during the daytime.

5.2.3 At an individual street level, it is clear that there are links where traffic increases and others where traffic reduces as a result of the proposed scheme (i.e. comparing the do-minimum with the do-


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something scenarios). The proposed scheme effects the re-routing of buses from College Green and Dame Street towards the Liffey Quays, which increases in traffic flows on those links. The most significant increases in traffic are estimated to happen on local links. With regards to reductions in volumes, some are very significant, especially on College Green and on its immediate vicinity (Dame Street, Trinity Street, College Street, Fleet Street East).

5.2.4 Overall, for the 2018 scenario, the model shows a reduction of approx. 7.2% from 206,964 to 192,047 vehicles. However, this needs to be understood in terms of the reallocation of journey numbers as opposed to vehicular movements. The quays under the Do-Something Scenario are carrying much higher public transport volumes. It is also notable that Luas provides significant growth in customer access to the area at Westmoreland Street/College Street and Dawson Street which correlates with areas of traffic reduction. So analysis of traffic flow only provides part of the answer.

Fig. 5.1 Do-Minimum vs. Do-Something – Changes in Traffic Volumes 2018 (prepared by Arup)

5.2.5 It is important to note that the implementation of the traffic management changes on the north and south Quays in association with the College Green Bus Gate (operational since 2009) have in effect implemented these changes irrespective of the College Green Plaza project proceeding.

5.2.6 Access to hotels, car parks and loading in the vicinity of College Green have also been reviewed. The response to Item 2 of the Further Information request as incorporated in the EIAR provides considerable detail on access and egress arrangements for private vehicles. It is important to note that access to the Fleet Street and Trinity Street car parks is being maintained and detailed measures have provided to ensure that businesses in the area are properly serviced with loading bays.

5.3 Re-routing of bus services and re-location of bus stops

5.3.1 The Board’s Further information item refers to the potential socio-economic arising from the ‘diversion of bus routes, relocation of bus stops, displacement of bus customers during both the construction/operational stages, severance of routes, increased journey times and costs’.


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5.3.2 The Traffic and Transportation Chapter of the Environmental Impact Assessment Report provides a series of helpful diagrams on alterations to the bus routes.

Fig. 5.1 General Route of existing buses through College Green (EIAR Fig. 6.3)

5.3.3 As detailed in the EIAR Transport section prepared by Arup, the rerouting of buses assumed in this assessment is summarised below:

The rerouting of buses assumed in this assessment is summarised below:

Routes which currently originate/terminate in the vicinity of College Green (e.g. 65, 68, 150) would continue to use Dame Street terminating at the new turning around facility proposed at the junction of Foster Place and Church Lane;

Routes which currently use South Great George’s Street before passing through College Green and vice versa (e.g. 122, 16), would be rerouted to Patrick Street, Nicholas, Winetavern Street, North Quays in the inbound direction. Some routes may also be maintained along South Great Georges Street turning left onto Dame Street and onwards to Winetavern Street. Outbound, at O’Connell Bridge, buses will either use D’Olier Street and Westmoreland Street as per the existing situation or may be permitted in future to turn right directly from O’Connell Bridge onto Aston Quay. These routes would be rerouted to the South Quays, Parliament Street and Patrick Street (outbound, route 16 would use Parliament Street and South Great Georges Street). This is illustrated in Figure 5.2, (Figure 6.29 of the EIAR);

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Figure 5.2, Future Rerouting of Buses Currently Running Through College Green and South Great Georges Street, (Figure 6.29 of the EIAR)

Routes which currently pass through College Green other than those using South Great Georges Street which do not terminate originate in the vicinity (e.g. 27, 123), would be rerouted onto the South Quays and Parliament Street in the outbound direction. At O’Connell Bridge, buses will either use D’Olier Street and Westmoreland Street as per the existing situation or may be permitted in future to turn right directly from O’Connell Bridge onto Aston Quay. In the inbound direction, buses would be rerouted along Winetavern Street and the North Quays. This is illustrated in Figure 5.3, Figure 6.30 of the EIAR.

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Figure 5.3 - Future Rerouting of Buses Currently Running Through College Green and High Street (Figure 6.30 of the EIAR)

Growth of the city core

5.3.4 In effect, the above diagrams reflect that the bus network of the city core is being shifted northwards (c. 250m) from its current congested and constrained location at College Green to the quays which becomes the new focal point of the network for north and south sides of the city. The route diversion is reflective of the expansion of the southern retail and services core of the city and strong pedestrian desire-lines to Temple Bar and across the river to the O’Connell Street/Henry Street area.

5.3.5 There is now a continuation of commercial activity from the Grafton Street retail core northwards towards Temple Bar and on towards O’Connell Street and westwards to Wexford Street, Aungier Street and Georges Street. The current route alignment is reflective of a former smaller retail core focused on Grafton Street, whereas the new route is a manifestation of the strength of this commercial core and its expansion outwards into surrounding streets. The new routes skirt along the edge of the southern retail core of the city, where the reality is that this is a much expanded area of influence.

5.3.5 It is also important to note that while Dublin City Council is the Roads Authority it does not manage the bus fleet, or the licensing of the bus route network in Dublin. These are functions of the National Transport Authority.


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Implementation of bus priority measures on North and South Quays

5.3.9 Dublin City Council introduced the improved bus priority measures on Dublin’s North and South Quays in August 2017. Analysis of bus journey times, using Dublin Bus automatic vehicle location technology, shows that the measures have been successful in reducing bus journey times and improving journey time reliability for thousands of bus passengers in the City Centre9.

5.3.10 The NTA’s Statement of 26th September, 2017 states that “Bus journey times along the quays have improved by up to 45% in some instances, since the new bus prioritisation measures were introduced at the beginning of September this year…For buses travelling along the north quays, journey times between Ormond Quay and D’Olier Street decreased by 37% between 8am and 9am and 45% between 9am and 10am when compared with the previous year. Equally significant reductions of between 20% and 25% were achieved during most other hours. On the south quays, buses journey times between Aston Quay and Essex Quay decreased by 38% between 5pm and 6pm and by 30% between 6pm and 7pm.”

Public Transport Modelling

5.3.11 The NTA has carried-out modelling to assess the proposed changes to the Dublin City Centre public transport (PT) networks, as part of the College Green Plaza project. Within the canal cordon, some changes to public transport networks are apparent. 2018 PT passenger flows increase along the quays in the city centre, which reflects the rerouting that was carried out to account for the closure of College Green.

5.3.12 Figure 5.4 below shows bus passenger flow difference between the 2018 Do Minimum and 2018 Do Something scenarios within the Canal Cordon (Source: College Green Traffic Management Measures Draft Modelling Report). The NTA model indicates that public transport Boarding and Transfers are projected at 96,981 (Do-Something) compared to 96,387 (Do-minimum). Therefore, there is likely to be growth in passenger numbers in the short term, without significant delays in service time. The long-range projection to 2035 projects public transport numbers grow to c.198,177 (Do-Something Do Minimum 199,297).

9 https://www.nationaltransport.ie/news/dublin-quays-bus-priority-measures-lead-substantial-reduction-bus-journey-times/


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Figure 5.4: PT passenger flow difference, 2018 AM Peak, Canal Cordon (Source: College Green Traffic Management Measures Draft Modelling Report, Figure 3-16)

Bus Stops

5.3.13 In parallel with the alteration of the bus routes, the location of the majority of bus stops will be aligned along the new routes. This is detailed in the Traffic and Transportation Assessment of the EIAR. In general, the principal point of bus access to the southern city centre will shift northwards to Bachelor’s Walk and Winetavern Street (Inbound) and D’Olier Street, Aston Quay and Lord Edward Street for outbound roots. These bus stop locations are generally within 5 minutes walk of their current locations and all within comfortable walking distance of the existing routes. For these reasons, on balance, the local impact of the bus route changes on bus users is considered to be neutral.

5.3.14 As part of a separate project, DCC propose to increase the length of bus bays, on the North and South Quays in order to provide additional kerbside capacity. The additional bus lanes on the north and south quays will also assist in maximising the existing kerb side space. Additional bus lanes on the North and South quays will allow buses to access and egress more easily to their stops without impeding following buses and causing the buses to bunch. This better use of the road space and kerb space will enable buses to adhere more closely to their schedules, thereby loading and unloading passengers in a more timely fashion. The more efficient turnover of passengers will in turn assist in reducing congestion on the footpaths. Bus Connects also seeks to address the issues of overlapping lines, a complex network, too many buses in the city centre and poor orbital services.

Taxi Ranks

5.3.15 To facilitate the Proposed Project, it is necessary to remove a total of 5 taxi ranks spaces from College Green, approximately 9 permanent taxi bays on Foster Place and a further 11 night time bays.

5.3.16 It is proposed to provide a new taxi rank accommodating approximately 8 taxis on the southern side of Dame Street between South Great George’s Street and Trinity Street. In addition, the existing night-time rank on the northern side of Dame Street just east of South Great George’s Street which accommodates


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3 taxis will be converted to a permanent rank. In addition to this, the following three loading bays which are proposed will also act as a night-time rank:

Southern side of Dame Street between South Great George’s Street and Trinity Street with space for approximately 7 taxis;

Eastern side of Trinity Street just north of the junction with St Andrew’s St with space for approximately 6 taxis; and

Western side of Church Lane with space for approximately 4 taxis.

5.3.17 In summary, it is proposed to remove 14 permanent taxi rank spaces and replace it with capacity for 11 permanent spaces. Existing night-time bays (14) will be replaced with 17 night-time bays.

5.4 City centre retail environment

Guidelines for Planning Authorities Retail Planning 2012

5.4.1 The purpose of the Retail planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities is 1) provide a framework for the development of retail policy in local authority development plans (including Retail hierarchies and Retail Strategies) and 2) provide guidance on floorspace caps and methodologies for the assessment of planning applications for retail development. Dublin City is identified as a Level 1 retail centre within the national retail hierarchy.

5.4.2 The guidelines identify five key policy objectives at section 2.5 in planning for and addressing the development requirements of the retail sector. These objectives relate to the needs for plan-led development, a focus on city and town centres for the majority of future development, a pro-active approach by local authorities in enabling city and town centre renewal and development to come about and a high quality approach to urban design.

5.4.3 The first national policy objective is to secure plan-led development utilising Retail Strategies. The second national policy objective is to promote greater vitality in city and town centres by promoting a sequential approach to retail development. The third national policy objective is to ensure that the planning system encourages competitiveness in the Retail Sector.

Encouraging Sustainable Travel

5.4.4 The fourth national policy objective (para. 2.5.4) relates to securing a general shift towards sustainable travel modes through careful location and design of new retail development relative to the catchment area being served. It states:

While the private car tends to be attractive for activities such as more substantial convenience goods shopping or bringing home bulky goods, careful location of retail developments and attention to detail in terms of how they are connected by footpaths and cycle facilities to surrounding areas can substantially boost trips on foot or bicycle for smaller purchases and make a substantial difference in encouraging smarter travel in line with the Smarter Travel strategy. Moreover, by encouraging appropriate retail development in locations with good public transport facilities such as the centres of cities and larger towns, increased usage of public transport can be encouraged.

Retail Development and Urban Design

5.4.5 The fifth national policy objective is to ensure that retail development plays its part in realising quality outcomes in relation to urban design. It states at para. 2.5.5:


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Quality design aims to create attractive, inclusive, durable, adaptable places for people to work in, to live in, to shop in, or pass through. Planning authorities should promote quality design in retailing in their development plan and/or retail strategies and then implement this through the development management process. This is of particular importance for retail development because of the dominant visual and use role it plays in a city, town or village streetscape.

Retail Impact Assessment

5.4.6 The requirement to prepare a retail impact assessment is set out at section 4.9 of the guidelines. It states that where a planning authority considers an application for planning permission to develop a new retail development to be particularly large in scale compared to the existing city/town/district centre, or where a retail strategy or development plan has allocated a specific type and quantum of retail floorspace to a particular settlement and a proposed development absorbs on one site the bulk of that potential retail floorspace, the planning authority may request the applicant, by way of a Retail Impact Assessment (RIA) as set out in Annex 5.

5.4.7 The requirement to prepare a Retail Impact Assessment only relates to proposals for new retail development (generally large scale). There is no basis for preparing a retail impact assessment under the Ministerial Guidelines for development that does not propose any retail floorspace and would therefore be inappropriate to assess the College Green Plaza project or traffic management measures in the city centre within this framework.

Retail Environment

5.4.8 The Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016 adopted in July 2008, provides guidance and policies for retail development at a strategic level in the Greater Dublin Area. Dublin city centre is identified as a Level 1 Centre (Section 6.15). As the centre at the highest grade in the hierarchy, Dublin city centre is considered unique in the range and mix of retail and associated linked services provided, the levels of connectivity it offers and the wide hinterland and tourist trade it serves. As the primary centre for retail, located at the terminus of almost all public transport connections in the GDA.

5.4.9 The Guidelines Strategy states that it is essential that the City continues to re-invent itself to provide a modern attractive retail environment that can compete both with the modern level 2 centres but also with other international cities in both attracting trade and new retail formats.

5.4.10 For Dublin City Council centre the ‘Council Specific’ Policy Recommendation at section 6.33 is: Maintaining the role of the city centre as the main retail centre for comparison goods in the Country through continuing to develop the retail environment, urban design of centres, range of retail uses and quality of the public realm to the highest quality to ensure that the City retail core competes on a national and international scale. As part of this, to continue to facilitate complementary uses to retail, where relevant and suitable, to form mixed use development in highly accessible locations.

Market Trends and Developments

5.4.11 Informed market analysis of the Dublin City centre retail environment reflects that the retail market in prime city centre locations is robust and experiencing a sustained period of growth. Analysis of the market point to demand outstripping supply and a pent-up need for more commercial floor space. There is significant capacity in the city centre at the former Carlton Cinema site10 and Clery’s Department11 store to deliver on this demand.

5.4.12 The immediate area of College Green has been dominated by surrounding institutional uses over time; a low-grade road-environment and poor public realm all of which have been conducive to supporting a

10 Mixed use development has a total gross floor area (GFA) of c.5,928sqm Granted Permission to Chartered Land11 A mixed-use scheme Granted Permission in March 2017, comprising retail, offices, a hotel with net floor area of over 23,700m² of refurbished and newly constructed space, with direct access to O’Connell Street, Marlborough Street and Earl Street North


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positive retailing environment. The redevelopment of the formal central bank site by Hines Ireland12

will complement investments on the south side of College Green and support the synergy of commercial activity from the Grafton Street quarter to Temple Bar and on to Henry Street/O’Connell Street.

5.4.13 The Savills - Retail Market in Minutes August 2017 provides current expertise on the retail market in Dublin. It states:

Most indicators on Ireland’s retail economy dashboard are pointing in a strongly positive direction. The population is growing rapidly, we are approaching full employment, earnings are picking-up and the heavy lifting of fiscal adjustment has been done, providing a more stable economic outlook and the promise of an easing tax burden. Additionally light rail works which have disrupted trade in some of Dublin’s prime retail streets will conclude shortly, greatly enhancing these locations as retail destinations. Ultimately, all of this will translate into increased demand for retail space . Given continued international uncertainty and the globalised nature of modern retail, this might not feed through in a smooth process. However, despite some external headwinds, we are continuing to see international brands enter Ireland with more waiting in the wings such as Uniqlo, Dyson and Rituals. Although there is now a pipeline of retail development the scale of this is relatively limited and delivery remains some way off. Therefore the rental outlook remains positive, particularly for units in prime city centre high streets and the major suburban malls.

Fig. 5.4 Grafton Street Rents Trends and Forecast. Source: Savills - Retail Market in Minutes August 2017

5.4.14 With regard to Rents Savills state the following:

“econometric modelling shows that jobs growth is ultimately the strongest driver of growth in retail rents. With Ireland’s economy now creating nearly 70,000 additional jobs per annum, and with the labour market performing better than at any time in the last decade, we should continue to see retail rents rise over the medium term. In the short term this relationship may be complicated by recent global uncertainties. But, as the reality of events like Brexit becomes internalised and

12 Dame Plaza Property Trading Company Designated Activity Company (DAC) granted permission for mixed use redevelopment – August


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2017.


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accepted as an ongoing part of the economic landscape, commerce will have to continue as normal and retail rents should trend higher.

… as rental increases have compounded since the low-water-mark in late 2013 it is also natural that the percentage growth rate should slow due to a base effect. The MSCI overall ERV index is currently rising at a rate of 5.1% per annum. High street rents in prime city centre locations continue to grow more quickly, with Grafton St. ERVs rising by 9% in the year to June. As a result, Zone A rents in this location currently stand at approximately €6,000 per sq m. Our econometric forecasting model predicts that Grafton St. rents will rise by a further 20.5% compound over the period Q3 2017 - Q3 2019 inclusive. This equates to average rental growth of 7.7% per annum with growth of 7.5% predicted at the furthest horizon of the forecast window”.

5.4.15 Savill’s analysis of the Dublin Retail Market is reflected in Cushman and Wakefield’s - Ireland Retail Snapshot, Q1 2017. It stated

2016 was another positive year for the Irish economy with GDP reaching 5.2%. The improvement in the economic environment can be seen in various elements; growth in domestic demand continues, and consumer sentiment stood at 101.9 in March, remaining above EU averages. The volume of retail sales increased by 1.1% in February in annual terms. Occupier focus Retailer sentiment in Ireland remain positive and new entrants continue to appear. In Dublin city centre, Urban Decay have signed to open their Irish first stand-alone store on Grafton Street. Victoria’s Secret are fitting out their flagship store on Grafton Street, which is due to open in Q4 2017. In Q1, retailers such as Hotel Chocolat, Dr Martens and Smiggle all had outstanding requirements. The strong Food & Beverage trend continues, however, demand far outweighs supply.

5.4.16 Under the heading of Investment focus the Cushman & Wakefield research report states the following:

During Q1 2017, there was a slight slow-down in transactions volumes when comparing to Q1 2016, due to lack of stock. The retail investment market also saw some off-market deals taking place, which looks set to continue. That said, the appetite for prime Dublin retail investment opportunities remains strong. For example, 42-43 Henry Street is reported to be under offer to a European fund (AEW) for in excess of €20 million (NIY: 4.14% at a value of €20 million). We understand that there was a number of bids on this property from domestic and international funds.

Outlook: There continues to be prospects of short and medium-term retail development. In Dublin city centre, proposed site amalgamations around Grafton Street see its retail zone set to expand. The redevelopment of the iconic Clery’s department store on O’Connell Street has now received full planning permission to redevelop the building to include a hotel, office and retail space.


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5.4.17 This positive sentiment is supported by reference to the Retail Sales Index illustrated in Fig. 5.5 below that Volume of sales has experienced sustained growth in recent years (source: CSO13).

Fig. 5.5. Retail Sales Index (Value and volume, January 2017)

5.4.7 This market analysis reflects a strong sentiment in Dublin’s retail market where the prospect of the College Green Plaza project and traffic management measures in the city centre are viewed with confidence. This analysis and the key city trends outlined in Section 4 reflect international growth trends of rejuvenating city centre cores supporting investment, positive consumer sentiment, growth in expenditure and subsequently releasing demand for additional floor space. The city centre retail economy does face considerable challenges from the Regional Shopping Centres and particularly e- commerce and multi-channel retailing. The public realm improvements to the city centre are part of a strategy to improve the city centre experience which is critical to retail. It is particularly important to note that the city centre retail economy has experienced a challenging trading environment; particularly with Luas Cross-city construction. Dublin City centre has proven to be highly resilient and adaptable.

Conclusions - Traffic management measures, civic plaza and city centre retail environment

5.4.8 The transportation measures considered under section 3 and 4 of this report will yield an increase in journeys into the city core through redistribution of road space for more efficient public transport use and a significant improvement in the quality of public realm. Access to city centre car parks will be maintained to support car-based shopping. The re-routing of bus routes and bus stops from College Green entails bus passengers will not be able to use their normal bus stops in the short-term construction phase and long term operational phase when the plaza it complete. This is likely to be an inconvenience for passengers as they adjust to new bus stop locations and bus route changes. For some this may lead to increased walking times to their destinations (up to 5 minutes). The socio-economic impact of this change is not considered significant for the city centre retail economy. The realigned bus routes and bus stops will continue to deliver customers into the heart of the city with ready access to the retail quarters

13 http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rsi/retailsalesindexjanuary2017/


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north and south of the river. The completion of the College Green Plaza will diminish severance and time delays across College Green. It is notable that pedestrian public realm improvements on Westmoreland Street will support this important link from the Liffey Quays to College Green and the Grafton Street area. The implementation of the College Green project will improve the city centre environment providing a world class public square to support increased pedestrian footfall and an operational Luas cross-city. The overall effect is considered to be positive for the city centre retail environment.

5.4.9 Taxi ranks in College Green shall be re-positioned, but taxi access will remain crucial with ranks relocated close by and taxis maintaining access to all bus lanes.

5.4.10 Details of existing pedestrian daily maximum flows within the area and projections for 2018 highlight that pedestrian footfall is projected to increase significantly in the short to medium, supported by improved circulation space and attractive environment. Daily flows at College Green (Bank of Ireland) are expected to grow from 41,010 in 2017 to 43,864, and outside Trinity from 49,178 in 2017 to 52,601 in 2018.

5.4.11 The conclusions of the international best practice review strongly indicate that expanded pedestrianisation in the city centre will have a positive impact on retail footfall, turnover and rents. The impact of the College Green Plaza and traffic management changes in the city centre are considered to be positive.

5.5 City centre business environment

5.5.1 Section 3 of this report provided detailed information on macro-trends in the Irish and Dublin economy. It also reported on a pipeline of 360,000m2 sq.m. of office space with a likely yield of 33,000 jobs. Between 27,000 and 48,600 jobs are likely to be created in the tourism sector. The retail sector will be boosted by the development of the Carton and Clery’s sites on O’Connell Street. Recent planning permissions in the locality of College Green include a commercial office building circa 18,861 sq.m (June 2017, Planning Ref. 3037/16), and at the neighbouring site Apollo House, Tara Street for commercial office space of circa 16,205 sq.m. (Planning Ref. 3036/16) Therefore, overall a picture of a robust city centre and healthy business sets the context for the College Green Plaza project.

5.5.2 Analysis of commercial use within the 10 minute isochrone presents a more general picture of on the nature of businesses within the study are was provided on analysis of the GeoDirectory database which lists commercial activity and sectoral base/provisions of services in any given location at a specific point in time (Q2 2016) (see Fig. 5.5).

5.5.3 The business environment is also a reflection of access jobs and opportunities. Section 3 of this report highlighted positive trends in employment growth and business sentiment for the city. Clearly a scenario where employees are delayed in reaching their workplace would not be conducive to supporting progress made elsewhere.

5.5.4 Analysis of the Traffic Model prepared by the NTA highlights that a delay in public transport journey times is not anticipated to arise from Traffic management changes in the city centre or those arising from the civic plaza proposal.

5.5.5 Loading and serving access to businesses in the vicinity of College Green has been considered in great detail by Dublin City Council. It is particularly important that locations such as Parliament Street and Trinity Street maintain a good level of service. Following review of submissions to the Board, the Council will now allow access for loading vehicles up until 11am on Parliament Street via Essex Street.

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Figure 5.5 Retail Hospitality and Services uses.

Conclusions - Traffic management measures, civic plaza and city centre business environment

5.5.6 Having regard to evidence presented, it is important to highlight the Dublin Transport Study provides a strategy for increasing the number of journeys into the city core significantly. All indicators support the position that traffic management measures are not currently having a constraining effect on the business environment and that business sentiment, investment and development remain buoyant.

5.5.7 Dublin city centre has proven resilient in recent years, sustaining growth and renewal post-recession while absorbing capital projects (Luas) and traffic management changes (i.e. bus gate). It is concluded that the College Green Plaza will have a positive effect on the city centre business environment and traffic management measure (particularly on the Liffey Quays) and bus route diversions will not have a negative socio-economic impact.

5.5.8 At a street level access to city centre car parks will be maintained. Access to all hotels in the city centre shall be maintained. Taxis will be able to utilise bus lanes to service hotels and businesses as presently occurs. It is likely that there will be no negative economic impact on business arising moving taxi ranks or their circulation routes due to the Proposed Project.

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5.6 City Centre tourism interests

5.6.1 Section 3 of this report highlighted key trends in Tourism for the city and expenditure / employment multipliers associated with this growth. In essence, it was demonstrated that the Dublin Tourist economy has grown significantly in recent years is projected to continue to do so.

5.6.2 The Hotel Market is a useful indicator of this sector and it is pertinent to refer to the Cusman & Wakefield analysis of the Irish Hotel Market for Q2 2017. They state:

• The Irish economy continues to benefit from the tourism sector, with employment in the sector increasing by 6.8% annually, and overseas visitors growing by 4.2%. However, it is noteworthy that visitors from the UK have declined by 6% year on year.

• A notable feature of the market is the growing number of hotels sold off market, with 7 out of the 19 hotels sold in the first half of the year transacting off market, compared to just 2 in the same period in 2016.

• Three significant new hotels commenced construction in Dublin during the first six months of the year, bringing the total number of new rooms under construction in Ireland to over 1,250.

5.6.3 Fáilte Ireland released the Dublin Visitor Accommodation 2015-2020 Report by Fitzpatrick Associates in July 2017. This report portrays a more dynamic growth trajectory in tourism than previously noted (see section 3). For this latest update, the Fáilte Ireland projection suggests visitor numbers will increase to 7.4m people by 2020, or by 13.2% cumulatively over the period 2015-2020.

5.6.4 Fitzpatrick Associates’ up-to-date projections (as of late-May 2017) of additional hotel capacity anticipated to come on-stream in Dublin up to 2020 amounts to some 5,382 rooms, of which 3,444 (64%) is accounted for in new hotels, and 1,938 (36%) in existing hotel extensions. In terms of location of the additional hotel capacity is predominantly in Dublin 2 and 4 but with sizeable volumes likely to materialise in other city locations. The report also notes that a total of 802 additional serviced accommodation suites are currently anticipated to come into operation in the city between 2017 and 2020.

5.6.5 The macro-trends for tourism in the Irish economy are strong and have proven resilient. Projections for short and medium term categorically point towards significant growth in the sector, reflected in multi- million investment in some 1,250 new hotel rooms. The market does not cite or reflect concern regarding Dublin City Council’s proposed development of the College Green Plaza or traffic management measures in the city centre.

Conclusions - Traffic management measures, civic plaza and tourism interests

5.6.6 Tourist visitor numbers to Dublin city are projected to grow strongly in the short to medium term. College Green is a pivotal location in the city centre for the tourist visitor who’s primary experience of the city is as a pedestrian. The proposed Plaza will complement investment and growth in a range of tourist attractions, services and facilities in the city core.

5.6.7 The transportation measures considered under section 3 and 4 of this report provide for the redistribution of road space for more efficient public transport use and a significant improvement in the quality of public realm. Access to city centre car parks will be maintained. Access to all hotels in the city centre shall be maintained. Taxis will be able to utilise bus lanes to service hotels and tourist attractions as presently able. It is likely that will be no negative economic impact on tourism arising moving taxi ranks or their circulation routes.

5.6.6 While the re-routing of bus routes and bus stops from College Green will entail some adjustment in the short-term, access to bus services shall remain accessible to the tourist market. The implementation of the College Green project will raise the city centre trading environment and an operational Luas cross- city. The conclusions of the international best practice review strongly indicate that expanded pedestrianisation in the city centre will have a positive impact on tourism in the city.


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