report no. 1720a-se l e c p the economic trends and ... · iaented with findings of the bank's...
TRANSCRIPT
Report No. 1720a-SE l U E C PThe Economic Trends and Prospectsof' Senegal(In f:our Volumes)
Volume IV. Human ResourcesDecember 1979
Western Africa Regional Office
FORt OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Docu rnent of the World Bank
This dchcurnent has a restricted distribution and rnay be used byrecipients only in the performance of t ieir official duties. Its contentsmay not otherwise be disclosecl withoUit World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
US $1.00 = CFAF 220.37
CFAF 100 = US$0.454
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
1 kilogram (kg) 2.20 lbs1 millimeter (mm) 0.04 inch1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet
1 kilometer (km) 0.62 miles1 hectare (ha) 2.47 acres
GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS
BCEAO Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'OuestCEAO Communaute Economique de l'Afrique de l'OuestCPSP Caisse de Perequation et de Stabilisation des PrixECOWAS Economic Community of West African StatesEEC European Economic CommunityICS Industries Chimiques du SenegalONCAD Office National de Cooperation et d'Assistance
pour le DeveloppementSIES Societe Industrielle des Engrais du SenegalSMIG Salaire Minimum Interprofessionnel GarantiSOFISEDIT Societe Financiare S&negalaise pour le Developpement
Industriel et TouristiqueSONACOS Societe Nationale de Commercialisation des Oleagineux
du SenegalSONEPI Societe Nationale d'Etudes et de la Promotion IndustrielleUDAO Union Douaniare de l'Afrique OccidentaleUDEAO Union Douaniere des Etats de l'Afrique de l'OuestUMOA Union Monetaire Ouest AfricaineVAT Value Added Tax
GOVERNMENT OF SENEGALFISCAL YEAR
July 1 - June 30
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
THE ECON'OMIC TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF SENEGAL
Volume I Summary and ConclusionsThe Main ReportStatistical Annex
Volume II The Agricultural Sector
Volume III The Industrial Sector
Volume IV Human Resources
This report is based on an economic mission which visited Senegalin November 1976 composged of Messrs. J. de Leede (Chief), J.C. Brown (para-public enterprises), B.. Horton (industry), Ms. K.M. Larrecq (balance ofpayments), H. Lubell (human resources), J.D. Shilling (economic modeling),D.R. Steeds (agriculture), and M.P. van Dijk (informal sector), and comple-iaented with findings of the Bank's regular sector work and more recent eco-nomic missions.
This volume was written by Mr. Harold Lubell (ILO) on the basisof his participation in the basic economic mission in November 1976 andt:he following unpublished Bank reports:
1Migration and Employment in Senegal 1976 (de Leede, Elkan Bharier)Migration in West Africa 1976 (Zadiaziah, Nair)The Informal Sector in Senegal 1977 (van Dijk)]Education Sector Memorandum 1977 (Verspoor).
'rhis volume was finali:zed in January 1977; it was updated in 1979 to includenew developments.
Working Papers on the balance of payments, public finance, and theinformal sector are available in West Africa Programs Department II, DivisionC. The Para-Public Sector Report No. 1619a-SE can be obtained from the]Reports Desk.
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contenst may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
W
THE ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF SENEGAL
Volume IV. Human Resources
Table of Contents
Page No.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................. e.... . . .... .. i
Population ..................... .. ........................ I...... i
Income Distribution ..... iNfigration .. . . . . . . . . .%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . i
Informal Sector Development ...... ii
Capital Constraints. . ........... iiiManpower Productivity ........... ......... . ... o, .... ... ... iii
Chapter I. INCOME DISPARITIES AND LIVING STANDARDS . .1
A. Income Levels per Earner -o- . ... . 2
Disparities between Sectors... 3Disparities within Sectors 5
B. Poverty Levels and Living Standards .. 13
C. Incidence of the Government Budget. 16
D; Nutrition .l...*. . ... .*.....- ... 19
E. Health ............ 24
Fo Education oo.-.-...... 30
The Demand for Education .............. 31Basic Education ..................... 32Technical and Science Education at the Middle
and Secondary Level - ..... ......... . . . 33
Vocational Training ..o.............. . . ..... 34Training of Agricultural Technicians and
Professionals ....... o ..... ... ........... .......... 34
Management Training Needs .. 35Long-tern Planning ....... .... . ...... .36
G. Housing ..... ... . .................. 37
Chapter II. MIGRATION ..... .. . .... .o o ......... 41
A. Regional Population Distribution and Densities .41
Table of Contents (cont.)
Page No.
B. Ethnic Groups .............................................. 44
C. International Migration .................................... . 46
D. Internal Migration Flows ....... 48
E. The Senegalese Migrant ...... .............................. 53
Chapter III. EMPLOYMENT. ... .......................... 56
A. Employment Trends since 1960 ........................... 56
Modern Sector Employment ............................. 56Agricultural Employment ..... ......................... 59
B. Employment Projections ...... .................... ............. 61
Population and Labor Force ..... ...................... 61Urban Employment ................................................... 66
C. Employment Implications of Senegal'sTwo Growth Axes .... . ............ .................................... 73
Investment Costs per Job ............................. 73Absorptive Capacity of Dakar ......................... 75
Chapter IV. THE URBAN INFORMAL SECTOR ............ .. .............. 79
A. Employment and Incomes in the UrbanInformal Sector ......................................... 79
B. Inputs and Outputs of Informal Sector Producers .... ....... 81
C. Government Attitudes and the Institutional Frameworkfor Policy toward the Informal Sector ............. ...... 83
D. Education and Training for the Informal Sector ............ 85
E. Assisting the Development of the Urban InformalSector .............. ................................................. 86
Appendix A. SENEGAL'S MIGRATION FLOWS AGAINST THEIR HISTORICALAND GEOGRAPHICAL BACKGROUND ........................ 89
A. The Regions .......................... 89
Groundnut Basin .. .................................... 89The Senegal River Valley ..... ........................ 92Historical Perspective ............................... 93Modern Migration Flows .. ............................. 94Casamance and Senegal-Oriental ..... .................. 97
Table of Contents (cont.)
Page No.
B. The Cities ....................... 98
Urbanization ............................ 98Dakar ......... . . *. . .0............ 0.........I .. . 99Saint Louis ............................ , . . . .. . . 103Ziguinchor ............................ .104
Kaolack ............... , .**.... *...... I.105
S,tatistical Annex .... ......... ...... ...... 106
List of Tables
No. Page
1. Selected rural and urban incomes, 1974-1976 4
2. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita andper worker, by province, 1975 6
3. Gross domestic pro,luct originating in agricultureand related activities per capita of rural popu-lation and per rural worker, by province, 1975 7
4. Workers and annual wages and salaries in modernsector by nationality, 1974 9
5. Average annual wages and salaries in the modern sectorby skill level: Senegalese and other Africans comparedwith non-Africans, 1974 10
6. Average annual earnings in the modern sectorby "macrosector" and by nationality, 1.974 11
,. Distribution of employees and wage bill in government bysalary bracket, COctober 1976 12
El. Distribution of households by monthly household incomebracket, greater Dakar, February-March 1975 14
9. Distribution of households by monthly household expenditurebracket, greater Dakar, February-March 1975 15
10. Distribution of households by the level of monthly house-hold expenditure per consumption unit, greater Dakar,February-March 1975 17
11. Net transfers to producers and consumers out of the CPSP,fiscal years 1970/71-1976/77.
12. Nutritional value oE the diet per consumption unit per dayof urban families in Dakar by level of total expenditureper consumption ullit, 1975 20
13. Price of selected food products per 1,000 calories and per10 grams of prote:Ln 22
14. Average daily calor:Le consumption per capita by season intwo selected villages in Thies and Sine-Saloum 23
List of Tables (cont.)
Page
15. Medical personnel and inhabitants per unit: Senegal, CapVert and other provinces, 1966 and 1975 25
16. Health infrastructure: Senegal, Cap Vert and otherprovinces, 1974 26
17. Health infrastructure: hospitalization capacity, 1974 27
18. Projected distribution by level of educationand type of public expenditure 36
19. Total population of Senegal by province and density,April 1976 43
20. Ethnic groups 44
21. Number of transients by place of residenceand place of origin 50
22. Rates of migration by province for the 1960-1971 period 52
23. Estimated employment in the modern sector,1960 and 1975 56
24. Establishments, workers and average earnings in modernsector enterprises (private and semi-private), 1975 59
25. Population and labor force (active population aged 6years and over), selected years, 1976-1989 62
26. Population by sex and by zone (urban and rural), selectedyears, 1976-1989 64
27. Labor force aged 6 years and over by sex and by zone(urban and rural), selected years 1976-1989 65
28. Urban employment, Senegal and Cap Vert, 1976 67
29. Population, labor force and urban population,Senegal and Cap Vert, 1976 and 1981. 68
30. Employment in the modern private sector by branch ofactivity and nationality, 1975 71
31. Modern sector employment by skill level andby nationality (private sector), 1976 and 1981 72
32. Estimated employment in agriculture, animal husbandryand fishing in the Senegal River Delta, 1975 and 1985 74
List of Tables (cont.)
Page
3:3. Investment costs per job in proposed projects and someinternational comparisons 76
34. Incomes per month .in selected activities, a comparisonbetween Grand Dalcar, Medina and Pikine 82
List of Appendix Tables
A-I. Sources of income in the Fleuve Region 93
A-2. Comparison of proportion of urban population, 1975 99
A--3. Urban centers of more than 10,000 inhabitants in 1976 100
List of FiguresFollowing
Page
1. Lorenz curve of the distribution of workers in themodern economic sector of Senegal by level of wagesand salaries, 1974 (WB 21281) 9
2. Lorenz curve of thes distribution of governmentemployees by salary brackets, October 1976 (WB 21282) 12
3. Lorenz curve of the distribution of households bymonthly income bracket, Dakar, 1975 (WB 21283) 14
4. Lorenz curve of the distribution of householdsby monthly househoLd expenditure bracket, Dakar, 1975 15(WB 21284)
HUMAN RESOURCES IN SENEGAL
In a poor cotntry like Senegal, economic development is inevitablylinked to the development of human resources. Economic development is achiev-able only if the potential of the country's human resources can be realized,i.f the labor force is enabled to work effectively, if living standards andeconomic productivity are raised, if the positive energies released by socialchange are harnessed - in short, if the goals of social development arereached. Those who wish to influence the process of human resource develop-ment must deal with three factors which are discussed in this volume: incomeclisparities and living standards; the migration movements of the rural popula-t:ion which these income disparities help to generate; and some employment andt:raining aspects of the manpower situation in the modern and in the informalsectors that these population movements influence and are influenced by.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Population
i. The official estimate of the population growth rate based on theApril 1976 population census is 2.6 percent per year; it is projected to riseover the coming decades to a peak of 3.1 percent after the year 2000. Overthe 1977-1981 period, the urban population will grow at 4.0 percent per yearand the urban labor force at 3.8 percent per year. Of the 458,000 workers inthe urban labor force in 1976, 30 percent (140,000) were employed in themodern sector, perhaps 20 percent were unemployed, and the remaining 50percent were engaged in informal sector activities. The bulk of modernsector employment is located in Cap Vert. Of the urban labor force in CapIrert, 43 percent (101,000) were employed in the modern sector, 37 percent werein the informal sector and 20 percent were unemployed. Rather optimisticprojections covering tbe 1977-1981 Plan period estimated an annual increaseof 4.5 percent in modern sector employment. If, as seems likely, the numbercf persons engaged in informal sector activities increases at the same rate asthe total urban population (4.0 percent per year), the rate of open unemploy-ment in urban areas will show a marginal decline.
Income Distribution
ii. Disparities of income and living standards are wide both betweenthe rural and urban populations and within the urban population. Within theurban working population, incomes are particularly high for the expatriatenon-Africans in the modern sector; but the relative position of the Senegaleseand other African employees in the modern sector is also very favorable andwas maintained by the Government's active minimum wage and price subsidypolicy. Since 1975, however, minimum wages were not increased, and havediminished substantially in real terms. Yet the efforts to protect acquiredbenefits of employees In the modern sector have placed the work force in theinformal sector (together with the unemployed) in the least favorable positionin the urban economy.
iii. Although the basic needs strategy should be directed principallytowards the rural population, the residents of Dakar's inner and peri-urbanslums should not be excluded from the target groups. A pilot urban projectshould be tried out, with slum upgrading, health, mother and child care, andeducation as main components, to test the feasibility of delivery systems tosatisfy urban basic needs in Senegal's circumstances. With the Government'srecognition of the desirability of a population policy for Senegal, a familyplanning element could be made explicit in the health component.
Nkigration
iv. Rural poverty and income disparities between rural and urbanareas have led to an overlapping pattern of seasonal and longer-term migrationfrom rural to urban areas that mark the Senegalese as among the more mobileof Africa's settled populations. Population pressure in the grotndnut basinis pushing people into the cities (particularly Dakar), while the Government
- ii -
is attempting to attract some of the displaced peasants to colonizationareas in Senegal-Oriental and to the Senegal River Delta. Proposed develop-ment of water storage and irrigation facilities in the middle valley of theSenegal River is intended to absorb the population already settled there andto discourage their out-migration.
v. Major efforts to stimulate migration towards the southeasternpart of the country will need to be preceded by a campaign to eradicateonchocerciasis (riverblindness) which will require World Health Organizationintervention to negotiate, organize and finance part of an internationalprogram covering Senegal, Guinea, and Guinea Bissau. Priority should be givento the economic development of the region through promotion of cash cropsinstead of to migration of selected individuals from overcrowded parts of thecountry. Provision of infrastructure by the Government should be conditionedon the population growth of the villages, although in some less inhabitedareas it may be necessary to start off migration by creating new villages forwhich a core group of families including a blacksmith and some artisans couldbe officially recruited. Farmers in such new villages should be encouraged touse hired labor and expand their farms. Rights to land and possible subsis-tence subsidies during the first year should be strictly related to manualland clearing and de-stumping in order to avoid speculative occupancy anddestructive use of land. Consideration might also be given to larger-scalecooperative or Western plantation style farming, possibly organized by thereligious brotherhoods.
vi. Those who work in the urban informal sector and the urban poorhave the closest links with rural areas. The reality of employment andincomes in the urban informal sector probably has had a greater influence onthe rate of rural to urban migration than the mirage of high paying, securejobs in the modern sector. Improving incomes and living standards of theurban poor is thus likely to increase the attraction of the city for ruralmigrants. Since first priority belongs to the rural poor in a basic needsoriented strategy in Senegal, an important objective of a coherent developmentprogram to promote rural development and rural resettlement is the preventionof accelerated urban drift.
Informal Sector Development
vii. The informal sector includes a variety of categories of smallproducers of goods and services including artisans, small traders, small-scaletransporters, sellers of petty services and domestic servants. The artisansare the category about which most is known; they are also the group whoseactivities are most amenable to improvement through financial and technicalassistance. The Societe Nationale d'Etudes et de Promotion Industrielle(SONEPI) has recently been charged by the Senegalese Government with the taskof assisting artisans de production and artisans de service (as opposed to theartisans d'art).
viii. A strategy for developing the informal sector should have severalelements: a more positive attitude on the part of the Government towardinformal sector activities; the flexible use of technical assistance, finan-cial assistance and additional training administered through a new sort ofurban extension service which could be established using SONEPI as a base;
- iii -
measures to increase demand by modern sector enterprises, the Government,and consumers for the outputs of the informal sector; and an increase inour knowledge of the sector.
Capital Constraints
ix. With underemployment of the rural population during half of theyear and 20 percent unemployment among the urban active population, jobcreation is an important criterion against which new projects should betested. This is particularly significant since capital is a scarce factor(although in the mediumn term the availability of good projects may be an evenmore important constraLnt). Investment costs per job in proposed projectsshow some striking differences between agriculture and industry, and withinLndustry. The recently cancelled Cayar phosphate/petroleum complex wouldhave cost US$175,000 per job created, Dakar Marine US$73,000. The Kaolacklntegrated textile project would cost US$13,000 per job. Investment cost perjob that would be created by a fairly labor-intensive approach to developmentof irrigated farming in the middle valley of the Senegal River is estimatedat about US$2,000.
:B For the development of the upper and middle valley of the SenegalRiver, a slow-phased scheme with an emphasis on labor-intensive agriculturaltechniques is recommended to prepare the farming population for effective useof the irrigation waters that will be made available by construction ofthe Manantali Dam.
xi. There is a recognized need for good Senegalese managers in modernsector industry and admainistration, and to replace expatriate personnel.Good facilities are now in existence to meet demands from the modern sectori-or technical personneL already on the job. However, the general system oftechnical and vocational education is not at present turning out graduatesconsidered by potential employees to be adequately trained.
Manpower Productivity
xii. Among the difificulties that face modern sector manufacturers inSenegal is a combination of relatively high wages and low productivity. Solong as they operate ornly in a heavily protected domestic market, the lessefficient firms can get by with protection from imports and with eventualsubsidies from the GovEtrnment in the form of loans or equity participation,at the expense of public savings and Senegalese consumers. Relative ineffi-ciency has become a more serious problem since the Government can no longerafford these subsidies and it has become increasingly necessary for Senegaleseindustry to compete in export markets.
xiii. Industrial wages are relatively high in two senses: (a) in compari-son with incomes earned elsewhere in the Senegalese economy; and (b) incomparison with real labor costs abroad, particularly in Senegal's major WestAfrican competitor, the Ivory Coast. The advantaged position of modernsector employees is, however, a fact of considerable political significance.Since it would be politically difficult to attempt to reduce wages, it makesmpore sense not to pass on the benefits of economic growth (modest as it is)
- iv -
to urban consumers and to be concerned about increasing productivity forwhich ways can perhaps be more easily found.
xiv. One factor in the low productivity in modern sector industry issociological: the attitudes of the members of the modern sector work forcetoward industrial discipline. Absenteeism is said to be a major problem andsome plant managers are now suggesting that it may be easier to adjust workprocedures and personnel policy to local work attitudes than to struggle withchanging local attitudes. They can take this position because of strongeconomic protection of their firms.
xv. A way to increase industrial productivity would be to diffuse laborunion insistence on maintaining redundant labor when it is demonstrated thata task can be done with fewer people. At the same time, as much flexibilityas possible should be maintained for enterprises in the hiring of temporary(or even daily) workers. To convince labor unions to modify their stance, itwould have to be pretty clearly demonstrated that the resulting increasein efficiency would attract enough additional entrepreneurs to increase thetotal number of jobs available.
xvi. The positive aspect of having a growing modern sector in the urbaneconomy is that the incomes of the wage earners serve to maintain a certainlevel of effective demand for consumer goods that are or can be produced byless advantaged workers in the informal sector. The share of these modernsector incomes that will be spent on goods and services produced by theinformal sector can be influenced by widening the range and improving thequality of informal sector production, and by influencing middle incomeconsumer tastes by propaganda and by example.
xvii. The employment problem per se is serious but the major humanresource constraint on development in Senegal is the shortage of managersthroughout the economy, in industry, agriculture, as well as in the Government.A major constraint on industrial growth is the shortage of foremen andtechnicians, while the informal sector is hampered by the prevalence ofprimitive (rather than appropriately labor-intensive) techniques. Thedevelopment of effective facilities and techniques for transmitting packagesof skills through both formal and informal education is one of the country'spriority needs.
Chapter I. INCOME DISPARITIES AND LIVING STANDARDS
1.01 Economic development in Senegal has meant a secular drift of part ofthe work force out of low-income, low-productivity rural-based agricultureLnto higher-income, higher-productivity and largely urban-based industry,commerce and services. It was in the coastal cities of Dakar and Saint Louisthat the European traders, soldiers and officials settled; it was to thesecities that income flowed from abroad in the form of salaries and otherFrench government outlays and from the interior in the form of the traders'margins on groundnuts for export. It was the relatively high incomes of thecities that provided the effective demand for the outputs of Senegal's incipientindustries, and it was the cities themselves that soon provided the pool ofrelatively skilled and disciplined manpower needed by industry. At the end oflforld War II, Dakar was the primary location for French investments intendedto enhance and exploit the city's role as economic capital of French WestAfrica. Although independence in 1960 meant a shrinking of Dakar's hinterlandt:o within the borders of Senegal and a slowing of the pace of growth of urbanincomes, the basic disparity in income levels between the coastal cities andthe rest of the country continued to grow, with the increasing concentrationof Government and import-substitution industry in Dakar.
1.02 Dakar not only generated the relatively high incomes of the modernsector, it also attracl:ed masses of the poor, most of whom ended up makingtheir living outside oi the modern sector. Thus another basic intra-urbandisparity was created between the limited-sized advantaged group with secureemployment in the moderin sector and the relatively disadvantaged majorityworking outside it, in the informal sector.
1.03 Overlaying these disparities is the marked inequality of incomesinherent in the fact of contact between the expatriates working out of theEuropean economy and the Senegalese working entirely within the nationaleconomy. These inequalities between non-Africans and Africans show up sharplyin the modern sector where the bulk of the non-Africans are established. 1/
1.04 Because of Senegal's relatively slow economic growth and probable
overall decline in national product per capita of a rapidly growing popula-tion since 1960, income disparities have not significantly changed andincreases in living statndards even for the bulk of those in the advantagedgroup employed in the mLodern sector have not significantly improved. In 1976,Government salaries hac!, for example, probably done no more than maintaintheir absolute standar6is of 1958 with a steady decline in more recent years.IBut disparities grow to the extent that other groups, especially some of thepeasants, are worse off. There has been an increase in the absoLute number ofpeople in the expanding; and relatively prosperous modern sector but sincealmost 70 percent of the total population still live in rural areas engaged inagriculture and related. activities, the relative disparities remain.
1/ It should be remenmbered that not all non-Africans have the specificjuridical status of "expatriate" even though the terms are interchangedin everyday usage.
1.05 There is in Senegal, as in other African societies, an importantcultural factor which partly offsets the statistical inequalities in thedistribution of income: a keen sense of family and ethnic solidarity whichperforms the function of an informal system of income redistribution andsocial security. Before making too much of income inequalities within theSenegalese society on moral or on practical grounds, it should be rememberedthat the number of dependents upon each income earner, particularly in urbanareas, increases markedly with the level of income, to such an extent thataccumulation of individual or family savings is extremely difficult to achieve.Personal incomes are spread pretty thin in Dakar for example, where theaverage household size is 8 persons, a figure that probably does not includecasual visitors who stay for dinner and the night.
1.06 It can be argued that the inequalities that exist today are aninevitable result of economic development from a low level: progress is mademore rapidly in some sectors than in others and the beneficiaries of develop-ment are those who participate in the activity of the more dynamic sectors.There is, nevertheless, a growing consensus in the development community thatthe benefits of development should be more equitably shared than they aretoday, and that the satisfaction of the basic needs of all sections of thepopulation should be made a central objective of development policy. Basicneeds, as defined for the World Employment Conference of June 1976, 1/ includesuch material elements as minimum family requirements for private consumptionof food, shelter, clothing, household equipment and furniture, and essentialpublic services such as safe drinking water, sanitation, public transport, andhealth and educational facilities. Basic needs as defined by the ILO alsoinclude such non-material elements as the fulfilment of basic human rights,increased access to employment opportunities and improvements in workingconditions. Building the satisfaction of basic needs into Senegal's develop-ment plan would, among other things, mean increased emphasis on rural develop-ment and on the extension of Government services to rural areas to reach thedisadvantaged rural poor and to the peripheral slums of the capital to reachthe urban poor.
A. Income Levels per Earner
1.07 Although a complete picture of the distribution of income in Senegalcannot be drawn, enough information is available to sketch in the outlines andsome of the details of such a picture. Estimates can be made of rural-urbanincome differences, of income differences between the modern sector and theinformal sector in the urban economy, and of regional income differences.Hard data are available on earnings by skill level in the modern sector and onthe distribution of wages and salaries of Government employees. The resultsof a recent household expenditure survey for Dakar are also available.
1/ International Labor Office: Employment, growth and basic needs: Aone-world problem (Geneva, 1976), pp. 32-33.
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1.08 An estimate of the distribution of personal income in Senegal for1960 which keeps reappearing in the literatures 1/ has a Gini coefficient 2/of 0.56. The degree of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficientwill normally be greater for the society as a whole than for any of its parts;the Gini coefficients calculated for the separate sectors within Senegal quotedin the discussion below range between 0.21 and 0.43.
Disparities between Sectors
1.09 The broad orders of magnitude of significant group income differ-ences per worker may be lerived from Table 1 which summarizes more detaileddata presented further o01. The most striking difference is, of course,between the earnings of non-Africans ("expatriates") and those of Senegaleseand other Africans in the modern sector of Senegal's economy: in 1974, foralL skill levels combined, the ratio of earnings of non-Africans to Africansin the modern sector was 7.6:1. A similar comparison for the Ivory Coast onthe basis of 1970 estimal:es 3/ yields a ratio of 6.4:1.
1.10 A major factor affecting rural to urban migration should be thediiference between the levels of income that can be obtained in the city andthat can be obtained in the countryside. For the average unskilled andprobably illiterate ruralL migrant, obtaining one of the higher paying jobs inthe modern sector which require some skills would not appear to be a rea-sonable objective. A rural migrant to the city is more likely to have as anincome target the wage level of an unskilled worker in the modern sector orthe earnings level of a self-employed craftsman or a casual worker in theinformal sector. For 1975, an average income per worker in agricu:Lturecalculated on the basis of a rural labor force participation rate of 35.5percent comes to CFAF 88,000 (the corresponding figure for income per capitaof rural population bein; CFAF 31,000).
1/ Felix Paukert: "Income distribution at different levels of development:A survey of evidence", in International Labor Review, August-September1973, p. 114; Irma Edelman and Cynthia Taft Morris: An anatomy ofpatterns of income distribution in developing nations, Part III of Finalreport (Grant AID/csd-2236, Northwestern University), February 1971.
2/ The higher the Gini coefficient, the more unequal the income distribu-tion. The Gini coefficient (or Gini concentration ratio) is the ratioof the area between a Lorenz curve and its 450 line (the diagonal) tothe entire area below the 450 line. The Lorenz curve plots cumulatedpercentages of income recipients (x-axis) against cumulated percentagesof total income (y-axis).
3/ SETEF for Republique de Cote d'Ivoire, Ministare du Plan: L'imagebase 1970: Emploi, education, formation, vol. 1: L'emploi (Paris,April 1973), tableau 065, p.115.
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Table 1: SELECTED RURAL AND URBAN INCOMES, 1974-1976
(CFAF '000/year)
Item and Sector 1974 1975 1976
Average wages and salaries per worker:
Private Sector:Non-Africans 3,392Senegalese and other Africans:
All levels (average) 446Unskilled workers and apprentices 237 355 /1
Government 487 /2 645 /2 680 /3
Estimated average iacome per worker:
Urban informal sector (Dakar):Masters 300 /4Casual laborers and journeymen 160 /5Apprentices 54 /5
Agriculture and related activities /6 60 88
/1 Fifty percent above 1974 figure, which corresponds to the rate of increase inthe statutory minimum wage (SMIG) in November 1974.
/2 Fiscal years ending June 30 (i.e., 1974 = 1973/74). Projected back fromOctober 1976 figure by an index derived from wages and salaries per workerincluding social charges as recorded in the Government budget and accounts.
/3 October 1976. Gains bruts et indemnites. Excludes social charges./4 Derived from a sample of mostly unmarried room-renters with incomes between
CFAF 15,000 and CFAF 55,000 per month (CFAF 180,000 and CFAF 660,000 per year)carried out in 1975 and 1976.
/5 Derived from the pre-test for an ILO survey of the informal sector in Dakarcarried out in early 1976. Laborers and journeymen assumed to work 200 daysper year.
/6 The corresponding figures for average income per head of population (based ontwo active members of a family of six) are:
CFAF per capita per year1974 1975
Agriculture and related activities 22,000 31,000
Sources:
Private Sector: SONED: Les activites du secteur economigue moderne du Senegalen 1974 d'apres les resultats du recensement general desentreprises, Tome I; Methodologie. Analyse macrosectorielle(Dakar, June 1976) p. 86.
Government: Oct. 1976: Minist're des Finances et des Affaires Economiques,Service de la Solde, computer print-out SMI 505.1, 3 Nov. 1976.Fiscal year figures for 1973/74-1975/76 from Willem Bier:Public Sector Development and Policies in Senegal: 1965-1975(Washington, D.C.: IMF, July 1976, draft) Appendix A,Tables 2 and 21; and IMF: Senegal: Recent Economic Developments(Washington, D.C., November 9, 1976), Appendix II, Table VII,p. 38.
Urban InformalSector: See footnotes /4 and /5
Agriculture: Mission estimates based on Direction de la Statistique and SONED:Essai d'evaluation de la production de I'agriculture (campagnes1973/74, 1974/75) (Dakar, 1976); figures provided by Direction del'Elevage, Direction du Plan, and others; and J. Carol:Rapport de mission sur la planification regionale (Dakar, Directionde la Planification, 1976). For the corresponding figures per headof population, see footnote /6.
- 5 -
The ratios of earnings of relevant groups in the urban sectors to this averageincome per rural worker were as follows:
Ratio
Unskilled workers and apprentices inthe modern sector 4.0:1
Self employed in the informal sector 3.4:1
Laborers and journeymen in theinformal sector 1.8:1
Apprentices in the informal sector 0.6:1
Since differences in living costs between the city and the countryside areprobably of the order of 5:1, 1/ the income differentials indicated abovewould not by themselves be large enough to induce much migration. Themigrants, however, are also likely to come from rural groups with incomesbelow the average we have calculated.
1.11 Within the modern sector, the average salary per employee in theGovernment in 1974 was 9 percent above the average of wages and salariesreceived by Senegalese and other Africans in the private sector. 2/
Disparities within Sectors
1.12 An indication of regional differences in income levels in 1975 isgiven by the rough estimates of gross domestic product per capita of popula-tion and per member of the labor force by province (region) presented inTable 2. Gross domestic product per capita in Cap Vert is 5 times that in thepoorest province, Senegal-Oriental; gross domestic product per member of thelabor force in Cap Vert Is 7 times that in Senegal-Oriental. Thies is justabout at the national average.
1.[3 With respect to rural areas, not much is known about patterns ofland holding and income distribution within the village. Since there is noland shortage in Senegal,, except perhaps in some of the older and more heavilypopulated parts of the groundnut basin, it is generally assumed that access toland is fairly equitable. There are, however, a variety of special localsituations which result :in major inequalities of rural income. For example,the Mouride brotherhoods and colonization movements concentrate effectiveland rights and income in the hands of the marabout; the marabout, however,eventually attributes specific land holdings to the young men of the group asthey marry. 3/ In the villages of the Senegal River Valley, access to land in
1/ This estimate is, compared to other African countries, relatively highand will be reassessed during the next mission.
2/ There are strong indications that in 1979 the public sector was payinglower salaries than the private sector due to the freeze on publicsalaries since 1974.
3/ See Appendix A.
- 6 -
Table 2: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) PER CAPITAAND PER WORKER, BY PROVINCE, 1975
GDP GDPGDP Popula- Labor per capita per worker
Province (billion tion force ('000 CFAF) ('000 CFAF)(region) CFAF) ('000) ('000) (1) + (2) (1) + (3)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Cap Vert 229.7 951 266 242 864
Casamance 37.3 727 312 51 120
Diourbel-Louga 33.8 825 209 41 161
Fleuve 25.6 520 116 49 221
Senegal Oriental 12.8 278 106 46 121
Sine Saloum 52.2 997 412 52 127
Thias 57.3 684 205 84 280
Senegal 448.7 4,982 1,626 90 276
Sources: Col (1): Aggregate GDP: World Bank mission estimate. Regionalbreakdown based on J. Carol: Rapport de mission sur laplanification (Dakar, Direction de la Planification,1976), p. 38.
Col (2): Projected back from April 1976 provisional census resultsat provincial average growth rates shown in Table 19below.
Col (3): Derived from col (2) using provincial labor force partici-pation rates implicit in Division des Ressources Humaines:Prolections dfmographigues sur la base de l'enguete1970-71 (Dakar, August 1975), tableau IV and Projectionsde la Population active (1971-2000) (Dakar, October 1975),tableau IV.
- 7 -
the cuvettes is a matter of caste, with the higher caste peasants holding thebetter lands and the lower caste peasants (especially the former slave castes)relegated to outlaying and less productive plots whose low yields guaranteethe availability of low caste individuals as hired laborers for the moreprosperous higher caste peasants. It is also not clear what is the incomestatus of the nomadic and semi-nomadic Peul herdsmen relative to that of thesettled agriculturalists. If we nevertheless accept the assumption thatlandholdings are fairly equally distributed except among the Mourides, theaverage agricultural income per capita probably gives a good indication of thedistribution of the total rural population by level of income. Provincialaverage value added originating in agriculture and related activities in 1975ranged from CFAF 25,200 for the year in Fleuve province to CFAF 48,100 inCap Vert; Thias province shows a figure of CFAF 31,900, just above theaverage of CFAF 31,400 for Senegal (see Table 3).
Table 3: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ORIGINATING IN AGRICULTUREAND RELATED ACTIVITIES PER CAPITA OF RURAL
POPULATION AND PER RURAL WORKER, BY PROVINCE, 1975
GDP GDP in Distributionoriginating agriculture (percent)
:Ln Rural per capita GDPagriculture Popula- of rural originating
Province (bil:Lion tion population in Rural(region) CFAF) ('000) ('000 CFAF) agriculture Population
(1;' (2) (3) (4) (5)
Cap Vert 13.8 183 48.1 8.0 5.2
Casamance 20.2 600 33.7 18.4 17.2
DiLourbel-Louga 17.9 697 25.7 16.3 20.0
Fleuve 10.2 405 25.2 9.3 11.6
Senegal-Oriental ,'.0 244 28.7 6.4 7.0
Si.ne-Saloum 29O.0 846 34.3 26.5 24.2
Thias 16.5 518 31.9 15.1 14.8
Senegal 109.6 3,493 31.4 100.0 100.0
Scurces: Col (1): J. Carol: Rapport de mission sur la planificationrfRionale (Dakar, Direction de la Planification,1976),p. 38, adjusted by D. Steeds (IBRD mission).
Col (2): Mission estimates projected back from April 1976provisional census results.
Col (3): Col (1) divided by col (2).
- 8 -
1.14 The modern sector of the economy excluding Government administrationis located primarily in the urban areas. For this sector, good estimates areavailable on the distribution of workers and of earnings by skill level from asurvey covering 1974 carried out by the Societ& Nationale des Etudes deDeveloppement (SONED) for the Direction de la Statistique. A summary ofthese data .s presented in Table 4, separately for Senegalese and otherAfricans and for non-Africans as well as for both groups combined. ("Macro-sectoral" summaries are also presented for manufacturing, constructionbuilding and public works, commerce and services in Statistical Annex Tables1 to 4). For all modern sector workers combined, the skewness of the dis-tribution of wages and salaries is marked: the 3 percent of the work forcein the managerial group received 20 percent of the total wage bill; the 24percent in the unskilled group received 10 percent of the total wage bill.A Lorenz curve drawn for this distribution from the macro-sectoral dataunderlying Table 4 (see Figure 1) yields a Gini coefficient of 0.43; a Lorenzcurve derived from similar data for the Ivory Coast for 1971 yields a Ginicoefficient of 0.46. 1/ This particular distributional pattern combines threeelements: (a) the usual spread in compensation between one skill level andthe next; (b) the differences in the payments made to "expatriate" non-Africansand to Africans; and (c) the concentration of expatriates in the higher skillgroups. At any given skill level, non-Africans obtain from twice to over twoand a half times the rate of pay of Senegalese and other Africans as calculatedin Table 5. Overall, however, the average payment to non-Africans is 7.6times the average payment to Senegalese and other Africans, since of thenon-Africans, 65 percent are in the top two skill groups (managers and tech-nicians); and the non-Africans constitute 54 percent of the personnel in thesegroups. Gradual replacement of expatriates by Senegalese in these and in themiddle-skilled jobs will raise the average level of pay received by Senegaleseas a group, and will also reduce the aggregate wage bill of the enterprisesconcerned. The disparity between non-African and African employees variesfrom one macrosector to another (Table 6): of the four macrosectors, it ishighest in construction (a ratio of 11.9:1) and lowest in commerce (a ratio of6.0:1).
1.15 For Government employees, a detailed breakdown of the number ofemployees and the wage bill ("masse salariale") is available month by monthfrom the computer services of the MinistAre des Finances et des AffairesEconomiques. The distribution of employees and of salaries by narrow salarybrackets for the month of October 1976 is shown in Table 7. The correspondingLorenz curve (which yields a Gini coefficient of 0.306) is shown in Figure 2.The average salary received in that month was CFAF 56,700 (CFAF 680,400 at anannual rate). According to the table, 68 percent of Government employeesreceived approximately this amount or less; the aggregate received by themconstituted 47 percent of the wage bill. The top 10 percent of Governmentemployees received 25 percent of the total Government wage bill.
1/ See World Bank: Employment and salaries, income distribution, draftannex (by W. Stolper) to Ivory Coast basic economic report (1976,typescript), p. 17.
Table L: WORKERS AND ANNUAL WAGES AND SALARIES IN THEMODERN SECTOR BY NATIONALITY, 1974
Annual Wages and SalariesCategory and Workers (Dec. 1974) (1974)Ski.ll Level /1 No. % Aggregate Per Worker
CFAF (CFAF '000)million %
1. Senegalese and other Africans:
Employers, managers 639 1.08 1,492 5.65 2.334Technicians 1,049 1.77 1,581 5.99 1,507Foremen 3,219 5.44 3,202 12.13 995Skilled workers 18,286 30.89 8,951 33.91 490Semi-skilled workers 21,341 36.05 7,695 29.16 360Unskilled workers, 14,660 24.77 3,473 13.16 237
apprentices
Total 59,194 100.00 26,394 100.00 446
2. Non-Africans:
Employers, managers 1,240 41.20 5,727 56.08 4.618Technicians 718 23.85 2,381 23.32 3,316Foremen 626 20.80 1,634 16.00 2,610Skilled workers 305 10.13 363 3.55 1,190Semi-skilled workers 109 3.62 101 0.99 927Unskilled workers, 12 0.40 6 0.06 500apprentices
Total 3,010 100.00 10,212 100.00 3.392
3. All workers:
Employers, managers 1,879 3.02 7,219 19.72 3.842Technicians 1,767 2.84 3,962 10.82 2,242Foremen 3,845 6.18 4,836 13.21 1,258Skilled workers 18,591 29.89 9,314 25.44 501Semi-skilled workers 21,450 34.48 7,796 21.30 363Unskilled workers, 14,672 23.59 3,479 9.51 237
apprentices
Total 62,204 100.00 36,606 100.00 588
/1 Skill levels: English translation of French categories.
English French
Employers, managers Employeurs, cadres superieursTechnicians Techniciens superieursForemen Techniciens, agents de maitriseSkilled workers Ouvriers et employes qualifiesSemi-skilled workers Ouvriers et employes specialisesUnskilled workers, Manoeuvres, apprentis
apprentices
Source: SONED: Les activites du secteur economigue moderne au Senegal en 1974 d'apres lesresultats du recensE!ment general des entreprises, Tome I: Methodologie. Anaylsemacrosectorielle (Ds&kar, June 1976), p. 86.
12/76
FIGURE 1. LORENZ CURVE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS IN
THE MODERN ECONOMIC SECTOR OF SENEGAL BYLEVEL OF WAGES AND SALARIES, 1974
100%Percentage of
Wages andSalaries
50%
50% 1 00%
Percentage of Workers
Gini coefficient: = 0.42888Source: Statistical Annex Tables 1 to 4.
World Bank - 21 281
- 10 -
Table 5: AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES AND SALARIES IN THE MODERNSECTOR BY SKILL LEVEL: SENEGALESE AND OTHERAFRICANS COMPARED WITH NON-AFRICANS, 1974
Average annual wages Ratio of non-and salaries (CFAP '000) Africans to
Senegalese Senegalese andand other Non- Differences other Africans
Skill Level Africans Africans (2) - (1) (2) + (1)
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Employers, managers 2,334 4,618 2,284 1.98
Technicians 1,507 3,316 1,809 2.20
Foremen 995 2,610 1,615 2.62
Skilled workers 490 1,190 700 2.43
Semi-skilled workers 360 927 567 2.57
Unskilled workers,apprentices 237 500 263 2.11
Total 446 3,392 2,946 7.60
Source: SONED: Op. cit., p. 86.
- 11 -
Table 6: AVERAGE ANNUAL EARNINGS IN THE MODERNSECTOR BY "MACROSECTOR" AND BY
NATIONALITY, 1974
Ratio ofnon-Africans
to SenegaleseSeneBgalese All and otherand other Non- Workers Africans
Macrosector Afr:Lcans Africans (averages) (2) t (1)
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Manufacturing 408 3,557 552 8.7
Construction 3:10 3,685 413 11.9
Commerce 545 3,248 762 6.0
Services 500 3,182 606 6.4
Total 446 3,392 588 7.6
Source: Statistical Annex Tables 1 to 4, quoting SONED: Les activitesdu secteur ec.onomigue moderne au Senegal en 1974 d'aprasles resultats du recensement 0en6ral des entreprises, Tome I:M&thodoloRie4 Analyse macrosectorielle (Dakar, June 1.976), pp. 86,88-91.
- 12 -
Table 7: DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES AND WAGE BILL /1 IN
GOVERNMENT BY SALARY BRACKET, OCTOBER 1976
Cumulative
Average Employ- Aggregate Distribution Distribution
Salary Bracket Salary ees Wage Bill (percent) (percent)
(Cl?AF/month) (CFAF/ (No.) (million Employ- Aggregate Employ- Aggregate
month' CFAF/month) ees Wage Bill ees Wage Bill
I - 10,000 674 325 1.1 0.72 0.04 0.72 0.04
10,001 - 15,000 14,211 834 11.1 1.86 0.47 2.58 0.51
15,001 - 17,500 16,525 383 6.3 0.85 0.25 3.43 0.76
17,501 - 20,000 18,873 253 4.8 0.56 0.19 3.99 0.95
20,001 - 22,500 21,590 895 19.3 1.99 0.76 5.98 1.71
22,fO1 - 25,000 23,982 1,483 35.6 3.30 1.40 9.28 3.11
25,001 - 27,500 26,333 1,303 34.3 2.90 1.34 12.18 4.45
27,501 - 30,000 29,220 938 27.4 2.09 1.07 14.27 5.52
30,001 - 32,500 31,366 2,521 79.1 5.61 3.10 19.88 8.62
32,501 - 35,000 34,130 2,177 74.3 4.84 2.92 24.72 11.54
35,C01 - 37,500 36,464 2,438 88.9 5.42 3.49 30.14 15.03
37,501 - 40,000 38,697 2,256 87.3 5.02 3.42 35.16 18.45
40,001 - 42,500 41,246 2,439 100.6 5.43 3.95 40.59 22.40
42,501 - 45,000 43,843 2.217 97.2 4.93 3.81 45.52 26.21
45,001 - 47,500 21,591 1,723 79.8 3.83 3.13 49.35 29.34
47,501 - 50,000 48,856 2,753 134.5 6.12 5.28 55.47 34.62
50,001 - 52,500 51,340 1,977 101.5 4.40 3.98 59.87 38.60
52,501 - 55,000 53,458 1,706 91.2 3.80 3.58 63.67 42.18
55,001 - 57,500 55,939 2,113 118.2 4.70 4.64 68.37 46.82
57,501 - 60,000 58,564 1,156 67.7 2.57 2.66 70.94 48.48
60,001 - 70,000 64,904 3,764 244.3 8.37 9.58 79.31 59.06
70,001 - 80,000 75,298 2,348 176.8 5.22 6.94 84.53 66.00
80,001 - 90,000 85,811 1,924 165.1 4.28 6.48 88.81 72.48
90,001 - 100,000 95,356 926 88.3 2.06 3.46 90.87 75.94
100,001 - 110,000 104,462 1,031 107.7 2.29 4.22 93.16 80.16
110,001 - 120,000 115,130 694 79.9 1.54 3.13 94.70 83.29
120,0.31 - 130,000 125,205 488 61.1 1.09 2.40 95.79 85.69
130,001 - 140,000 134,783 437 58.9 0.97 2.31 96.76 88.00
140,001 - 150,000 145,192 312 45.3 0.69 1.78 97-45 89.78
150,0(31 - 175,000 161,772 395 63.9 0.88 2.51 98.33 92.29
175.001 - 200,000 183,824 272 50.9 0.61 2.00 98.94 94.29
200,001 - 250,000 219,048 231 50.6 0.51 1.99 99.45 96.28
250,001 - 300,000 274,700 83 22.8 0.19 0.89 99.64 97.17
300.001 + 448,450 161 72.2 0.36 2.83 100.00 100.00
Total 56,695 44,956 2,548.8 100.00 100.00
/L Gains bruts et indemnites. Excludes charges sociales, which add about 40 percent to the basic wage bill.
Source: Ministere des Finances et des Affaires Economiques, Service de la Solde, computer print-out
SMI 505.1, November 3, 1976.
FIGURE 2. LORENZ CURVE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OFGOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES BY SALARY
BRACKETS, OCTOBER 1976
Percentage of 100%Wages and
Salaries
50%
50% 100%
Percentage ofEmployees
Gini coefficient = 0.30602Source Table 7.
World Bank - 21282
- 13 -
B. Poverty Levels and Living Standards
1.16 As indicated above (Table 2), gross domestic product per head ofpopulation came to CFAF 90,000 for all of Senegal, ranging by province fromCFAF 41,000 in Diourbel to CFAF 242,000 in Cap Vert. Income originating inagriculture per head of rural population for all of Senegal came to CFAF31,400, ranging by province from CFAF 24,200 for Fleuve province to CFAF48,100 for Cap Vert. In 1976, the World Bank has estimated an absolutepoverty level for rural Senegal at CFAF 14,900 (US$69) and a relative povertylevel of CFAF 25,170 (US$117). 1/ The average figure for income per head ofrural population is above the absolute rural poverty level in all the provinces.We have no estimate of the range of per capita rural incomes within eachprovince. However, the averages for two provinces, Fleuve and Diourbel-Louga,which together have 31.6 percent of the country's rural population, are at orbelow the relative poverty level.
1.17 Some indications of living standards in greater Dakar are given bythe results of a household survey carried out in February-March 1975 by theInstitut Universitaire de Technologie (IUT) of the University of Dakar. 2/For the sample of 544 households covered in the IUT survey, the average numberof persons per household came to 8.6, the average number of children perhousehold being 3.2 and the average number of adults, 5.4. Counting a childas the equivalent of one half an adult with respect to consumption, the numberof "consumption units" per household came to 6.0. Average monthly income perhousehold was recorded at CFAF 87,143, of which CFAF 69,200 consisted ofearned incomes and CFAF 7,059 of transfers. Average monthly expenditure perhousehold came to CFAF 89,215 of which CFAF 80,445 consisted of consumptionexpenditure and CFAF 8,769 of transfers. The distribution of households bymonthly income bracket is shown in Table 8 and its Lorenz curve (with a Ginicoefficient of 0.391) is shown in Figure 3. The number of consumption unitsincreased steadily with size of income, from 4.6 for the lowest income bracketto 7.8 for the highest income bracket; in other words, the higher the householdincome level, the greater the number of dependents (as well as earners) perhousehold. A corresponding distribution of households by monthly expenditurebracket (with a Gini coefficient of 0.310) is shown in Table 9 and in Figure4. In this case, the number of consumption units per household peaks at 6.8(the equivalent of 10.1 persons) in the CFAF 125,000-149,999 month:Ly expendi-ture bracket.
1/ In the World Bank estimate, the absolute poverty level is taken asthe cost of a diet of 2,300 calories and 100 grams of protein perperson per day, plus an additional 42.8 percent for non-foodexpenditure. The relative poverty level is taken as one-third ofnational aggregate personal income per capita.
2/ Institut Universitaire de Technologie, Division Tertiaire, Universitede Dakar: Etude Budget - Consommation, II. Enquete: Budgets familiaux(Dakar, June 1976), p. II-6.
- 14 -
Table 8: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY MONTHLY HOUSEHOLDINCOME BRACKET, GREATER DAKAR, FEBRUARY - MARCH 1975
Average Cumulative Ll Consump-Income per Percent percent tion
Household Income Household Aggregate Aggregate UnitsBracket (CFAF per Income per House- Income per House- House-
(CFAF per month) month) Bracket holds bracket holds holds
0 - 24,999 17,161 1.9 9.6 1.9 9.6 4.625,000 - 49,999 37,292 10.1 23.7 12.0 33.3 5.450,000 - 74,999 60,840 16.3 23.3 28.3 56.6 6.075,000 - 99,999 87,215 13.6 13.6 41.9 70.2 6.0
100,000 - 124,999 111,737 14.6 11.4 56.5 81.6 6.3125,000 - 149,999 137,914 9.6 6.1 66.1 87.7 6.6150,000 - 249,999 189,128 18.8 8.6 84.9 96.3 7.2250,000 and over 357,728 15.1 3.7 100.0 100.0 7.8
All levels 87,143 100.0 100.0 6.0
/1 Gini coefficient estimated at 0.391.
Source: Institut Universitaire de Technologie, Division Tertiaire, Universit&de Dakar: Etude budget-consommation, II. Enguete: Budgets familiaux(Dakar, June 1976), p. III-12.
FIGURE '. LORENZ CURVE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OFHOUSEHOLDS BY MONTHLY INCOME
BRACKET, DAKAR 1975
Percentageof 100%
Income
50%
50% 1 00%/,
Percentage of Households
Gini coefficient = 0.39063
Source: Table 8.
World Bank - 21283
- 15 -
Table 9: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY MONTHLY HOUSEHOLDEXPENDITURE BRACKET, GREATER DAKAR,
FEBRUARY - MARCH 1975
Percent Distribution LjHousehold AggregateExpenditure Expenditure Consumption PersonsBracket per House- Units per per
(CFAF per month) Bracket holds Household Household
0 - 24,999 0.4 2.2 3.5 5.125,000 - 49,999 7.2 17.8 4.6 6.850,000 - 74,999 14.0 22.3 5.7 8.475,000 - 99,999 16.5 18.6 6.4 9.1
100,000 - 124,999 15.5 13.6 6.7 9.5125,000 - 149,999 14.4 10.5 6.8 10.1150,000 - 249,999 22.7 12.1 6.6 9.2250,000 and over 9.3 2.9 6.6 9.3
Total 100.0 100.0 6.0 8.6
L1 Gini coefficient estimated at 0.310.
Source: Institut Universitaire de Technologie, op. cit., pp. II-10 and III-5.
FIGURE 4. LORENZ CURVE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDSBY MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE BRACKET,
DAKAR, 1975
Percentage ofExpenditure 100%
50% 100%
Percentage of Households
Gini coefficient = 0.30979Source: Table 9. World Bank - 21284
- 16 -
1.18 The distributions of households and consumption units and of aggre-gate expenditure by level of monthly expenditure per consumption unit accord-ing to the IUT survey are shown in Table 10. The table illustrates theinverse relationship between household size and expenditure per consumptionunit in the households. The table may also be used to estimate the proportionof households in greater Dakar below a poverty line defined (as for the ruralpopulation) in terms of consumption expenditures per person. We calculate thelevel of absolute urban poverty to be at least 5 times the rural level, inview of the differences between rural and urban prices. The resulting figureof CFAF 6,210 per month implies that only some 5 percent of greater Dakarhouseholds (or 7 percent of greater Dakar's consumption units) are, accordingto Table 10, below such an absolute poverty level.
C. Incidence of the Government Budget
1.19 Of the various distributive effects of Government expenditure andreceipts, the operations of the Caisse de Perequation et de Stabilisationdes Prix (CPSP) have a particular significance for the distribution of incomebetween rural producers of agricultural commodities for export and the mostly-urban consumers of imported and locally grown agricultural produce and pro-cessed foodstuffs. CPSP profits on operations involving export commodities(particularly cotton and groundnuts) imply a tax on rural producers, andconversely losses imply a subsidy. CPSP profits on imported locally producedfoodstuffs imply a tax on consumers, and losses imply a subsidy. In periodsof high prices for agricultural exports, the CPSP has made profits andimposed a considerable implicit tax burden on Senegalese agriculture: in1973/74 the profits on groundnuts and cotton reached CFAF 15.5 billion (seeTable 11). In that same year, the CPSP's subsidies to consumers on rice,sugar and groundnut oil amounted to CFAF 11.1 billion, resulting in a clearlyidentifiable net transfer of resources from rural producers to urban consu-mers. In 1974/75, the CPSP's profits on groundnuts and subsidies on groundnutoil fell drastically and overall there was a small net transfer to producersas well as a moderate net transfer to consumers. In 1975/76, however,with declining world prices for groundnuts, the CPSP carried out its pricestabilization function by taking a severe loss on its operations and paying asubstantial subsidy to rural producers who in effect began to recoup some ofthe transfers they had made in the good years. Faced with the prospect ofimpossible losses for the CPSP, the Government took the hard decision inlate 1974 to eliminate subsidies on rice and sugar by raising the sellingprice to consumers, at the same time moderating the blow to modern sectoremployees by raising the minimum wage (SMIG) to compensate for most of theloss in purchasing power. The net losers at that point were the urbanresidents working (or unemployed) outside the modern sector. The Government'sdistributional policy in the mid-seventies was clear: it did its utmost toprotect the benefits already acquired by the work force in the modern sectorwhich forms a significant political clientele in the Senegalese situation.However, there are at the moment clear signs that the Government is changingits policies in this area. A comprehensive income policy is being worked outin the framework of a medium-term economic adjustment program.
- 17 -
Table 10: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY THE LEVEL OFI4ONTHLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE PER CONSUMPTIONIJNIT /J1, GREATER DAKAR, FEBRUARY - MARCH 1975
Expenditure per Percent Distribution /2 ConsumptionConsumption Unit Aggregate House- Consumption Units per(CFAF per Month) Expenditure holds Units Household
0 - 4,999 1.0 2.6 3.9 8.9.5,000 - 9,999 12.9 22.1 28.4 7.7
110,000 - 14,999 19.9 24.3 26.4 6.51.5,000 - 19,999 17.4 17.6 17.0 5.820,000 - 29,999 21.7 16.7 14.8 5.3310,000 - 44,999 11.8 8.8 5.4 3.74.5,000 - 59,999 7.2 4.4 2.4 3.260,000 and over 8.1 3.5 1.7 2.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 6.0
L1 Adults and adult equivalents (a child equals one half of an adult).
L2 Gini coefficients: for households, 0.210; for consumption units, 0.343.
Source: Institut Universitaire de Technologie, op. cit., p. III-6.
- 18 -
Table 11: NET TRANSFERS TO PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS OUT OF
THE CPSP, FISCAL YEARS 1970/71 - 1976/77(in billions of CFAF)
Recipient andCommodity 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Transfers to producers(subsidies = -):
Groundnuts 4.2 3.8 4.8 14.3 2.9 3.4 4.9
Cotton 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.1 n.a. n.a.
Program -0.8 -0.5 -2.4 -1.2 -4.2 -5.9 -9.6
3.7 3.4 2.7 14.3 -1.2 -2.5 4.9
Transfers to consumers(mostly urban)(subsidies =
Rice -- - - -5.0 -1.7 5.1 3.8
Sugar -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.1 2.4 1.0
Groundnut oil -1.3 -1.6 -2.7 -4.4 -0.6 -0.4 -1.6
Flour -- -- -- -- -1.3 -2.4 --
-1.4 -1.8 -3.2 -11.1 -4.7 4.7 3.2
Surplus 2.3 1.6 -0.5 3.0 -5.9 2.2 8.1
Note: Table to be up-dated with information requested from the CPSP.
n.a. not available
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D. Nutrition
1.20 For making any intra-Africa international comparisons, particularlybetween Senegal and the Ivory Coast, it should be remembered that there aretwo completely different types of diet within West Africa. In the dry (Sahel)regions, the diet is based on cereals; in the wet (forest) regions, the dietis based on starchy foods (tubers, roots and plantains). This is illustratedby two nutrition surveys cited by Perisse 1/: an average cereal consump-tion of 202.3 kg per capita per year with an average tuber and root consump-tion of only 1.1 kg in the Senegal River Valley 2/; and an average cerealconsumption of only 9.8 kg per capita per year with an average tuber and rootconsumption of 666.1 kg in Bongouanou (Ivory Coast) 3/. In the Senegal RiverValley case, 77 percent of total calorie intake was supplied by cereals; inthe Ivory Coast case, 83 percent of total calorie intake was supplied bytubers and roots. The cereal-based diet has, of course, a higher proteincontent than the tuber-based diet; but this is an advantage only if the dietcontains sufficient calories to permit absorption of the protein as protein,and not as an energy source.
1.21 A measure of the extent of urban poverty is given by the estimatesof nutrition levels derived by the FAO from the results of the IUT's 1975household budget survey of Dakar. 4/ The FAO has converted the per capitafood consumption estimates of the IUT household budget survey into quantitiesper capita on the basis of market prices collected by the Direction du Com-merce Int6rieur et des Prix and from quantities into nutritional valuesusing standard tables of equivalents by product. The results are summarizedin Table 12 which shows the average quantities of calories, proteins, animalproteins and lipids consumed per consumption unit by level of total expendi-ture per consumption unit. Calculating the average daily caloric requirementof the urban population at 2,000 calories (5 percent below the estimatedrequirement of 2,100 for Senegal as a whole), it is evident from the tablethat the average consumption of 2,341 calories of Dakar is above the require-ment. However, for the two lowest expenditure categories, which include 31.4
1/ Julien PFriss&: L'alimentation en Afrigue intertropicale: Etudecritique a partir des donn6e des enquetes de consommation 1950-1965.Thesis presented to the Faculte de Pharmacie de l'Universit6de Paris, 1966, p. 19.
2/ Quoted from J.L. Boutillier et al: La moyenne vall6e du Senegal:Etude socio-economiique (Paris, Presses Universitaires de France),1962.
--/ Quoted from Service de Statistique de Cote d'Ivoire: Enquete nutrition -niveau de vie. Sub-division de Bongouanou 1955/56.
4/ FAO: La demande alimentaire [au Senegal) (Rome, November 1976,mimeo draft).
Table 12: NUTRITIONAL VALUE OF THE DIET PER CONSUMPTION UNITPER DAY OF URBAN FAMILIES IN DAKAR BY LEVEL OF TOTAL
EXPENDITURE PER CONSUMPTION UNIT, 1975
ItemLevel of Total AllExpenditure per 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 ConsumptionConsumption unit -4,999 -9,999 -14,999 -19.999 -29,999 -44,999 -59,999 + Units
Population (%) 3.8 27.6 26.5 17.2 14.8 5.9 2.5 1.7 100.0
Nutritional values perday: Calories 1,294 1,630 2,183 2,827 3,172 3,612 4,300 3,457 2,341
Proteins (gr) 27.7 46.0 60.1 69.2 84.7 103.0 131.6 114.5
Animal Proteins (gr) 5.2 17.6 24.7 29.7 38.3 44.5 63.5 63.5
Lipids (gr) 47.4 55.0 80.4 107.9 134.7 140.3 151.0 144.1
Source: FAO: La demande alimentaire [au Sen&gal] (Rome, November 1976, mimeo draft) p. 2, based on InstitutUniversitaire de Technologie: Etude budget consommation, Tome II: Budgets familiaux (Dakar, June 1966).
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percent of the consumption units in the IUT sample, the average consump-tion is less than the requirement. The FAO's guess is that perhaps halfoE these (or 15 percent 1/ of the population of greater Dakar) suffer nutri-tLonal deficiencies. According to the staff of the Institut de TechnologieA:Limentaire, caloric deficiencies are significant in some of Dakar's peripheralurcban slums. Small chiLdren in these areas suffer in addition from othernutritional lacks: protein deficiencies due to taboos on giving small childrenf:Lsh and eggs; and vitamain deficiencies due to lack of access to the fruitsand leafy vegetables that would be available to the rural poor. The higherincome groups, on the other hand, suffer from some of the ailments of over-consumption (particular:Ly of oils); diabetes and high blood pressure are majorhealth problems in Dakar.
1.22 The commodity composition of the diet of Dakar has indirect distri-butional implications as well. Within total food expenditure in Dakar,according to the 1975 IIJT survey, 27 percent went for cereals and cerealpIoducts and 31 percent for animal products. 2/ 3/ Of the expenditure once!reals only 7.0 percent: (1.9 percent of total food expenditure) went formillet and sorghum; rice, bread and wheat flour accounted for 91 percent (24.7pe!rcent of total food expenditure). Even among the poorest groups, millet andsorghum accounted for only 7.4 percent of expenditure on cereals (2.6 percentof total food expenditure). As incomes rise, relative demand will decline for(locally produced) millet, while demand will increase for (imported) rice,wheat, maize, sugar and milk.
1.23 Part of the difficulty of marketing millet in urban areas is thetediousness of its preparation and the relatively high cost of industriallyprepared couscous. The price per calorie of the main cereal products, asestimated by the FAO, show millet and maize to be the cheapest nutritionalenergy sources; but the price per calorie of prepared couscous is the same asfor whole rice and one and a half times that for broken rice (see Table 13).In order for couscous based on locally grown millet to cut in on the priceadvantage of rice and the established position of rice in the Dakar diet,a major improvement in the industrial preparation of couscous from millet anda marked reduction in the market price of the prepared couscous will berequired.
1/ FAQ, ibid., p. 10, where, however, this figure is presented as anassumption, not as a description of reality.
2/ FAQ, ibid., p. 5, tableau 2.
3/ Institut Universitaire de Technologie, op. cit., tableau 4 adjusted tosame basis as FAQ table.
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Table 13: PRICE OF SELECTED FOOD PRODUCTS PER 1,000CALORIES AND PER 10 GRAMS OF PROTEIN
Price Price Protein Price perper kg Calories per 1,000 per kg 10 g of
Food Product (CFAF) per kg Calories (grams) Protein(CFAF) (CFAF)
Broken rice 100 3,560 28 98 10.2
Whole rice 150 3,570 42 81 18.5
Millet 38.5 3,780 10 97 4.0
Couscous 100 2,350 42 60 16.7
Maize 56 3,680 15 78 7.2
Wheat flour 90 3,510 26 105 8.6
Bread 128 2,540 50 80 16.0
Potato 60 710 84 15 40.0
Manioc 65 1,100 59 9 72.2
Sweet potato 49 960 51 13 37.7
Edible peanuts 70 5,490 13 232 3.0
Oil 198 8,840 22 - -
Sugar 250 3,870 65 - -
Meat 375 1,980 189 139 27.0
Fresh fish 107 690 155 115 9.3
Dried, smoked fish 629 3,610 174 634 9.9
Fresh milk 157 790 199 38 41.3
Source: FAO: La demande alimentaire [au Senegal] (Rome, November 1976,mimeo draft), p. 6.
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1.24 The nutritiona.L situation in rural areas is less well known thanthat of greater Dakar ex,zept for Senegal's fundamental rural problem: theseasonal shortage of food grains in the major areas of rainfed agricultureand particularly the groundnut basin. 1/ Millet stocks are normally abundantimmediately after the harvest; they are run down during the long dry seasonand during the May-June rainy season. Consequently, the stocks are extremelylow during the critical season (August-October) prior to the harvest (thesoudure) when energy requirements to carry out the harvest are the highest.The results of two village nutritional surveys quoted by the FAO show thisseasonal pattern clearly.
Table 14: AVERAGE DAILY CALORIE CONSUMPTION PER CAPITABY SEASON IN TWO SELECTED VILLAGES IN THIESAND SINE-SALOUM
Tivaouan Fatick(Thias) (Sine-Saloum)
Item and Season 1966 1968
Calories consumeddaily per capita:
January - March 2,044 2,193May - June 1,880 1,942August - October 1,528 1,848
Percentage of energyrequirement (2,100calories) covered:
January - March 97 104May - June 90 92August - October 75 88
Source: FAO: Etat Nutritionnel au S&negal (Rome, November 1976,mimeo draft), p.7.
1.25 The normal seasonal shortage of food grains in the rural areas ofSahelian Senegal is fundamental to several aspects of the distribution ofincome and wealth and to the geographical movements of sectors of the popula-tion. The basic problem of the soudure is resolved or circumvented in anumber of ways. During the dry season, when there is little or no work to bedone in the countryside, the young men of the village migrate to smaller or
1/ The World Bank is preparing a nutrition project for Diourbel and isstudying the Casamance region, in the framework of which new data arebeing established.
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larger towns in search of income, 1/ partly in order to reduce the depletionof the stocks of foodgrains needed to carry the village's agricultural workforce through the next period of the soudure. During the lean period,
part of the villagers' money income is spent on basic foodstuffs (at seasonally
high prices) from outside the village to supplement dwindling supplies ofself-produced foodgrains needed for subsistence. 2/ It is said that somevillages keep part of the millet stock in special granaries whose contents are
consumed only during the short period of extreme exertion of harvest time;reduction in food intake and belt tightening occur during the slack seasonwhen less physical effort is required. Finally, the peasant who manages to
retain an adequate stock of millet through the year is the one who can makehis demand for manpower effective at the critical moments of seeding andharvesting.
1.26 A factor in Senegal's nutrition situation which is generally con-sidered favorable is the wide spread consumption of fresh fish and of dried
and smoked fish; this enhances significantly the protein content of the staplediet except in some of the more isolated inland villages to which the commer-cial network does not extend. There is, however, an as yet unresolved ques-
tion of the biological value of the protein content of dried and smoked fishprepared by artisanal methods. 3/
1.27 The regional income disparities noted above are compounded bydisparities in the availability of public services, which originally spreadoutward from the French colonial capital cities, first Saint Louis and then
Dakar. These disparities are illustrated in the next sections.
E. Health
1.28 The regional inequality of the distribution of medical facilities isheavily biased in favor of Cap Vert (essentially Dakar). Of the 192 doctors
in Senegal in 1966, 130 (68 percent) were located in Cap Vert; by 1975, theCap Vert share (225) of the higher total number of doctors (307) was up to 73percent. In 1975 Cap Vert had 64 percent of the country's mid-wives and 67
percent of its medico-technical personnel. The number of inhabitants perdoctor in Cap Vert in 1975 was 3,700 as compared with 42,300 in the rest ofthe country; while the number of inhabitants per mid-wife was 5,800 in Cap Vert,in the rest of the country it was 52,900.
1/ J. Roch: "Les migrations economiques de saison sache en bassin
arachidier senegalais", in Cahiers ORSTOM, Serie Sciences humaines,vol. XII, No. 1, 1975.
2/ Perisse, op. cit., p. 99.
3/ FAO: Bilan alimentaire 1974 (Rome, Nov. 1976, mimeo draft), p. 5. (This
problem is being studied by the Institut de Technologie Alimentaire in
Dakar).
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Table 15: MEDICAL PERSONNEL AND INHABITANTS PER UNIT:SENEGAL, CAP VERT AND OTHER PROVINCES, 1966AND 1975
Number of Medical- Cap VertYear and Health Personnel as % Inhabitants Per UnitCategory Cap Other of Cap Other
of Personnel Senegal. Vert Provinces Senegal Senegal Vert Provinces
1966:
Doctors 192 130 62 67.7 18,341 4,276 47,832Pharmacists 14 13 1 92.9 251,533 42,753 2,965,600Nurses 1,221 449 772 35.8 2,884 1,238 3,841Mid-wives 151 95 56 62.9 23,321 5,850 52,957Tech. personnel 1,244 868 376 69.8 2,830 640 7,887
1975:
Doctors 307 225 82 73.3 14,044 3,732 42,339Pharmacists 37 34 3 91.9 116,527 .24,697 1,157,267Nurses 2,563 936 1,627 36.5 1,686 897 2,134Mid-wives 329 212 117 64.4 13,014 3,960 29,674Tech., personnel 1,761 1,174 587 66.7 2,448 715 5,914
Source:: World Health Organiz,tion: Profil sanitaire du Sen&gal (Dakar, September1976), Annex V, quol:ing Service de Sante: Rapport annuel 1974.
Oi. the 9 hospitals in Senegal in 1974, 4 were in Cap Vert although thispreponderence was partly compensated by the 33 smaller health centers locatedin the other provinces. Of the 60 maternities ia the country in 1974, 17 (28percent) were in Cap Vert as were 24 (36 percent) of the country's 66 motheranid child protection centers. 1/
1/ Protection materne:Lle et infantile (PMI).
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Table 16: HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE: SENEGAL, CAP VERTAND OTHER PROVINCES, 1974
OtherFacility Senegal Cap Vert Provinces
Hospitals 9 4 5
Health centers 34 1 33
Health posts 428 62 366
Maternities 60 17 43
Mother and ChildProtection centers /1 66 24 42
/1 Protection maternelle et infantile (PMI).
Source: World Health Organization: Profil sanitaire du Senegal(Dakar, September 1976) Annex III, quoting Service deSant&: Rapport annuel 1974.
The population per bed in hospitals, maternities and other facilities was 767for Senegal as a whole ranging from 298 for Cap Vert to 2,121 for Senegal-Oriental. The numerical advantage of Cap Vert is marked not only in terms ofnumbers of persons per health facility but also in terms of the distances ofaccess to such facilities.
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Table 17: HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE: HOSPITALIZATION CAPACITY, 1974
]'rovince and PopulationType of Beds perFacility No. Percent bed
Cap Vert 2,916 50.4 298
Casamance 468 8.1 1,458
])iourbel 444 7.7 1,577
Fleuve 751 13.0 569
Senegal-Oriental 127 2.2 2,121
Sine-Saloum 601 10.4 1,494
rhias 478 8.2 1,285
Senegal (Total) 5.785 100.0 767
Hospitals 3,359 58.1
Maternities 1,536 26.5
Other 890 15.4
Source: World Health Drganization: Profil sanitaire du Sen6gal(Dakar, September 1976), Annex IV, quoting Service de Sant&:Rapport annuel 1974.
1.29 The incidence of disease and especially infant mortality showscorresponding regional disparities, some of which are due to the differencesin availability of health services and some simply to climatic and ecologicaldifferences. For example, infant mortality rates in rural areas of Senegal,estimated at 20 percent in the age group under 1 year and 35 percent in theage group 1-4 years, are high by international standards and twice as high asin urban areas of Senegal. 1/ The extremely high rate in the 1-4 year age
1/ FAO; Etat nutritionnel au S6negal (Rome, November 1976, mimeodraft), p. 3.
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group is presumed to be linked with the precarious nutritional state of youngchildren once they are weaned, which increases their vulnerability to measlesand malaria. There are strong seasonal variations in infant mortality in bothrural and urban areas, with the highest rates during and just after the rainyseason when infections, diseases and malaria are the most rampant and foodstocks in rural areas are depleted. The lower infant mortality rates inurban areas would appear to be due to the much higher level of medical andhealth infrastructure in urban areas (especially in Cap Vert) than in ruralareas.
1.30 A CINAM-ORANA survey carried out in 1960 showed rates of incidenceof malaria outside of Cap Vert ranging from 31.5 percent in Thies to 90.1percent in Senegal-Oriental. It is estimated that 70 percent of the country'spopulation is still affected by malaria and parasitic diseases.
1.31 One of the more important of the parisitic diseases is riverblind-ness (onchocerciasis) which is endemic in parts of Casamance and in Senegal-Oriental. The disease is, in fact, the major obstacle facing Governmentplans to extend settlement and the "groundnut frontier" eastward to theupper Senegal River (the new-lands project). Mapping the geographicalextent of the disease and its eradication are essential to the eventualsuccess of the new-lands program. Since the disease is also endemic inSenegal's southern neighbors, Guinea Bissau and Guinea, a mapping anderadication effort must be an international-regional effort which can, hope-fully, be organized by the World Health Organization. The Senegalese Govern-ment has submitted a request to the World Health Organization for such aregional project. An international committee has been set up to study theonchocerciasis problem in West African countries not yet covered by a program.
1.32 The Government's health program has had two major orientations:(a) the promotion of integrated preventive, curative and social medicine andhealth education, with polyvalent training of medical and health personnel;and (b) improvement of the coverage of the medical and health network throughthe development of basic health services, health education and an adequatedecentralization at the provincial level. The accent has been put on twoimportant programs: (a) the development of rural maternities and villagepharmacies in the provinces: in Thies (since 1972) and in Sine-Saloum(since 1974); and (b) a nutritional and health protection program focused onthe mother-and-child group most vulnerable to disease and malnutrition. As ofmid-1976, there were 99 rural maternities and 25 village pharmacies planned orfunctioning in Thies and Sine-Saloum; the nutritional and health protectionprogram had 35 principal centers and 105 secondary centers functioning inall of the provinces. 1/ The USAID program in Senegal is reinforcing theSine-Saloum program with a $3.5 million rural health services developmentproject, to start in 1977, which is to provide a model for assuring adequatehealth care at the village level. The project will construct some 90 clinicsthroughout Sine-Saloum province and will provide necessary basic equipment andstaff.
1/ WHO: Profil sanitaire du Senegal (Dakar, Sept. 1976), p. 6.
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1.33 One of the marked health problems in Senegal usually linked to dietdeficiencies is the p:revalence of anemia which has been found to affect about48 percent of the total population and 74 percent of pregnant and nursingwomen. 1/ In the case of Senegal the prevalence of anemia is probably due tomalaria and parasitic infections. Another endemic diet-related disease isgoiter which, however, could be easily eradicated by the iodization of salt orby injection of iodatead oil in isolated communities.
1.34 With respect to population policy, Government efforts have so far
concentrated on reducing infant mortality rates through the mother and childprotection centers, of which there were 66 in 1974: 17 principal centers inprovincial and departmental capitals, 32 secondary centers in smaller townsand villages, and in Dakar 7 USAID-financed private health centers and 10centers run by the municipality. It is not at all clear how (or whether) themother and child protection service is coordinated with the rural maternityand the nutritional and health protection programs.
1.35 The mother and child protection program is primarily a preventivehealth service directed toward pregnant and lactating mothers and towardpre-adolescent children. With regard to women, the objective is to monitorpregnancy and post-natal care; with regard to children, the service carriesout periodic examinations of new-born babies and a systematic program ofvaccinations and check-ups to protect against a variety of childhood diseases.Information and advice are made available on family planning methods andoptions.
1.36 The only clinic in Senegal which now provides complete familyplanning services is a private institution at Croix-Bleu in Dakar financed byPathfinders International (US). The clientele includes women from allsocial classes, but only few from the lower income groups can avail themselvesof these services because of their relatively high cost (e.g., CFAF 1,000 fora gynecological examination and a further CFAF 1,000 for fitting an IUD).USAID is currently arranging to establish a pilot family planning clinic onthe premises of the main mother and child protection center in Dakar and hasincluded in the country program for USFY 1977/78 a $1 million project toprovide comprehensive family planning information through existing clinics(rural as well as urban) and to train personnel in family planning techniquesand health management.
1.37 As the Government programs for reducing infant mortality becomeincreasingly effective, policy makers will have to face the implications ofthe inevitable increase in the rate of population growth resulting from thecultural lag between a fall in mortality rates and a subsequent fall in birthrates.
1/ PAO: Etat nutritionnel au S6n4gal (Rome, November 1976, mimeodraft), p. 3 quoting data collected by Dr. Krikawa in 1974.
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F. Education
1.38 The Senegalese formal education system resembles that of otherFrancophone West African countries. The system is modeled after the tradi-tional French system and only recently have attempts been made to reform andadapt it gradually to the social and economic needs of the country.
1.39 The proportion of the national budget allocated to education andtraining increased considerably until 1970, when it stabilized at approxi-mately 25 percent, representing 3.3 percent of GDP. The Government hasdecided that education's share of the national budget will not be allowed toincrease further, and a policy of limited growth of enrollments for the nextplan period has been adopted. As a consequence, there will be very littleroom for expansion of and improvements in the present formal system.
1.40 Government policy with regard to education has two major components.First is a firm determination to make the educational system more responsive tomanpower requirements, particularly in the modern sector, hence the prioritygiven to the development of technical education at all levels. Second is theGovernment's aim at improving the quality of education rather than expandingit, especially in the primary grades. The major constraint to educationdevelopment is this emphasis on quality combined with the fact that recurrentexpenditure for education will not be allowed to increase more than the rateof growth of the Government's recurrent budget. Universal primary educationstill remains a long-term policy objective, but the above constraints haveforced the Government to abandon this goal, at least for the near future.
1.41 The base of the Senegalese school system is still very narrow,with a primary enrollment rate of around 40 percent, and enrollments increas-ing at approximately the rate of population growth. About 20 percent ofprimary school graduates are admitted into a four-year middle-school program.The Government is at present experimenting with a new form of practicalmiddle-level education (enseignement moyen pratique - EMP) for the other80 percent. Originally this type of education was conceived to provide apractical education for primary school drop-outs and adolescent illiteratesas well, but this aspect is currently being deemphasized. Secondary schoolsoffer a three-year diversified curriculum leading to the baccalaureate whichgives access to higher education. Students who have obtained the baccalaureateare all assigned to an institution of higher education by a "Commissiond'orientation". Although this Commission is set up to direct students accord-ing to national priorities, its manoeuvering ability is limited by the quali-fications of the graduates.
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Post-Seconudary Orientation of Baccalaureates in 1975
Number of Baccalaureates PlannedDepartment Assigned Enrollment
Law and Economics 452 150
Medicine and Pharmacy 103 100
Sciences 222 350
Literature and Humanities 439 240
1.42 The largest institution of higher education is the University ofDakar which was originally conceived for 3,500 students but enrolls at presentabout 8,000, of which nearly 70 percent are Senegalese. The vast majority ofthe students are enrolled in the social science and language departments andonly 10 percent in science. A second university in St. Louis will be con-structed exclusively for studies in literature and humanities.
The Demand for Education
1.43 In some regions of the country the enrollment ratio for primaryeducation is falling due to lack of demand. This is the case in the provincesof Louga/Diourbel, Senegal-Oriental, Sine-Saloum and Fleuve. The reasons forthis decline have not yet been sufficiently analyzed. The peopLe may havebecome disappointed with the "French" education that the formal school systemis providing and are rejecting it. Many Muslim parents send their children tothe Koranic school where they receive religious instruction and are taught thetraditional values of their community. According to the 1970/71 census, only3.4 percent of the population in rural areas had attended primary schools,compared with 34 percent who had been to the Koranic or Arabic school. Since1969/70, a number of schools have been closed in rural areas. Instead of oneschool in every village, the Ministry of Education is trying to have three orfour six-grade schools in every "arrondissement". It should be noted in thiscontext that the role of modern private education at the primary level is alsodiminishing although the Government supports private institutions. All thisseems to indicate that in the rural areas in Senegal the demand for educationis lagging. Since urlban demand for primary education is still strong, thesystem is becoming more urban based than before.
1.44 Beyond the primary level, the situation seems to be radicallydifferent and several indicators point to a considerable excess demand formiddle-level and secondary education:
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(a) the high rates of repetition in the top grade of both primaryschools and middle schools, repetition which is in generalvoluntary with students trying for a second chance at entryinto a higher level of education;
(b) the rapidly increasing importance of non-religious privateschools at these levels, where parents pay the full cost ofeducation; and
(c) the fact that all students who pass the final examination atone level of education continue their studies at the next;only those who fail enter the labor market.
The excess demand is caused by three factors: education in Senegal is free;few job possibilities exist for this age group, keeping the opportunity costof the time spent on further education very low; and the expected incomeincrements generated by the additional years of schooling are considerable.Although income expectations are excessive in view of job availabilities, thelow private cost of education will continue to encourage young people to takethe risk of long studies and years of unemployment.
1.45 All evidence points to a large discrepancy between the private andthe social returns of post-primary education. At one time, this was justifiedbecause of the general shortage of Senegalese with post-primary education.However, at the moment there is an overall surplus with shortages only prevailingin some specific fields. The high cost to society of post-primary educationis reflected in the budget allocations for education and in the increasingnumber of educated unemployed. Bringing the private returns of post-primaryeducation in line with the social returns could be done by increasing the costof education for the beneficiaries and reducing income levels of the urbanelite in proportion to other population groups, a case which also can bedefended on equity grounds.
Basic Education
1.46 The duration of the primary school course is six years. The languageof instruction is French, but plans exist to change to local languages. Thecurriculum contains few practical subjects and is largely determined by therequirements of the middle school entrance examination. During the schoolyear 1975/76, total enrollment was estimated at 312,000 (of which 40% weregirls). The system is basically oriented towards urban life and modern sectoremployment. Rural areas are at a disadvantage not only because buildings areoften poor, furniture scarce and educational materials lacking, but the bestteachers are attracted to the cities.
1.47 The average national primary school enrollment ratio concealsconsiderable regional variations. The highest enrollment ratio (64%) isfound in Cap Vert 1/, the most urbanized region, and the lowest (13%) in
1/ A recent survey found however that the rates of schooling in some ofthe poorest parts of Dakar are well below 50 percent.
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Louga-Diourbel, the center of the largest Muslim brotherhood. Senegal-Criental and Sine-Saloum also have rates of schooling well below the nationalaverage. Casamance strongly deviates from this pattern with high enrollmentrates compared to the economic structure of the region, but with relativelylow rates for girls.
1.48 The 1977-1981 Development Plan proposes to limit the expansion ofprimary school enrollments to 3 percent, which is the rate of growth of theschool-age population. The concern for the quality of primary education hasled to a discontinuance of the recruitment of teachers with qualificationsbelow the level of "instituteur", such as "moniteurs" and "instituteursadjoints". This policy precludes any significant expansion of primary educa-tion even in the long run. Realization of universal primary education willtherefore require profcund changes in the Government's primary educationpolicy. Reform plans have existed since 1971 but have never been implemented,and the 1977-1981 Plan does not even mention them.
1.49 The stagnation of primary education in rural areas is not onlysocially regrettable, but it is also likely to have a detrimental effect onthe rural development programs that the Government is undertaking to giveincreased operational responsibilities to cooperative groups of farmers.M!oreover, the administrative reform now being implemented aims at: Governmentaldecentralization and an. increase in regional and local responsibilities. Allthese programs could be jeopardized if they are not accompanied by an attemptto deliver a basic education package to large groups of people in rural areas.T'his would imply a dual effort: on the one hand, effective ways should bedevised to deliver such a package to children in rural areas by either adapt-ing the existing primary system or by developing alternative systems, and onthe other hand, the literacy programs in rural areas should be expanded with aview to preparing adult farmers for additional responsibilities. For educa-tional and cultural reasons, the Government has decided that these literacycourses be given in the local languages. However, the farmers have asked forliteracy training in French since this helps them to communicate with theadministrative services, the agricultural development cooperatives and market-ing organizations. Therefore, a prerequisite for a successful acdult literacyprogram would be the increased use of local languages at the village level byGovernment and parastatal agencies.
Technical and Science Education at the Middle and Secondary Level
1.50 The education. reform of 1971, which attempted to improve the qualityof the teaching of science and technology, created two types of middleschools, a general one: "Collages d'enseignement moyen g6neral" (CEMG),and a technical one: "Collages d'enseignement moyen technique" (CEMT). Inreality, the difference.s between the two are minimal and little attention isgiven in either kind of school to the teaching of practical subjects. TheGovernment's recent Pla.n proposes an ambitious expansion program for themiddle schools which includes construction of (a) 16 new schools, (b) addi-tional facilities for three existing schools, and (c) improvement of facil-ities in 18 schools; the bulk of this program is devoted to the CEMTs.Enrollments in the CEMGs are not expected to increase much (0.8 percentannually) but the enrollments in the CEMTs are expected to increase by 13.5percent a year between 1975/76 and 1980/81.
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1.51 At the secondary level, the general lycee remains the preferredchoice of nearly all middle school graduates. The technical lycee has untilnow been a second-best option and as a result does not attract the mostqualified students. The programs are based on those used in the Frenchtechnical school and have the dual objective of trying to prepare the studentsfor further studies as well as for direct employment. Over the period 1975/76- 1980/81, enrollments in the general lycees are planned to increase byabout 4.7 percent per year but enrollments in technical secondary education byabout 13 percent per annum. Unfortunately, the latter type of training doesnot adequately prepare the students for industrial employment, certainly notat the supervisory level. The practical training is insufficient and thereis, therefore, a need to revise the curriculum. The proposed expansion ofgeneral secondary education is very difficult to justify by manpower data.
Vocational Training
1.52 The main institution for pre-employment vocational training inSenegal is the "Centre de Qualification Industrielle" (CQI), which givesindustrial training in the following fields: general mechanics, motormechanics, electricity, metalwork electronics, and cooling techniques. Thestudents are recruited from middle school graduates between the ages of 16-21.The main problem with the CQI seems to be that it has not established contactswith industrial employers in Senegal and the profile of the graduates does notseem to meet employers' expectations. Some pre-employment vocational coursesare also given in centers attached to the technical lycees. The Planproposes to create a national training office which would coordinate at anational level the different vocational training activities in the country.It is of prime importance that employers be involved in this activity.
Training of Agricultural Technicians and Professionals
1.53 Training adequately qualified personnel in the fields of agricul-ture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries is among the top priorities ofthe Senegalese Development Plan. Although at present no detailed projectionsare available of the total need for technicians and managers for the projectsin these sectors, rough estimates have been made for the requirements of thepublic sector, including the rural development corporations (SAED, SOMIVAC,SODEFITEX, etc). These calculations do not include the requirements of themodern sector, nor the projections of the requirements for agriculturalextension workers who, according to Government plans, would eventually bereplaced by trained farmers.
1.54 At present all training institutions for agricultural techniciansare under-utilized with the exception of the National School of Horticulture.This is also the only school which does not guarantee its students futurecivil service employment. In the other schools, enrollments are restricted bythe capacity of the civil service to absorb the graduates. To end presentunder-utilization and bring down unit costs, all employment guarantees shouldbe withdrawn and enrollments be open. Competitive selection of graduates forpublic employment would certainly provide incentives for better school results.The vast requirements for technicians once irrigation projects get underway,and current requirements of the private sector in the form of some agro-businesses that are planned, would create sufficient alternative employmentopportunities for graduates.
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1.55 Junior technician students are recruited among middle-school grad-uates. The length of the course has recently been extended from two to threeyears. Full agricultural technicians are recruited on the baccalaureate leveland are being trained in the "Ecole Nationale des Cadres Ruraux" (ENCR) in athree-year course which provides guaranteed civil service employment. Theequipiment in ENCR is inadequate and practically unusable, and the buildingsare in poor condition. The "Ecole Nationale d'Economie Appliquee" (ENEA)trains staff for the civil service at the technician level for communitydevelopment work particularly in rural areas. Recruitment takes place everyother year at the baccalaureate level; 20 percent of the places are nowreserved for junior technicians with at least four years' experience. Thelength of the course is three years. It has recently been decided thatteacher training for the practical middle-schools (EMP) will take place at theENEA. Occasionally, the ENEA organizes courses for junior technicians at therequest of the employing agencies.
1.56 The most urgent manpower needs in the agricultural sector are foundat the professional/management level. Senegal does not have an institutionof higher education in the Eield of agriculture. Plans for the creation ofsuch an institution, "l'Institut National Agronomique du Senegal" (INAS) arequite advanced and several donors (FED, FAC, USAID, and Brazil) seem to beinterested. The Institute will be located in Thies not far from the NationalAgriclultural Research Center (CNRA) and the ENCR. The duration of thecourse is foreseen to be five years. In order to keep the recurrent costs atan acceptable level, it seems advisable that the Government consider mergingthe INAS and the ENCR. This would also establish an organic link between thetraining of technicians and the training of professionals and managers.Consequently it would be advisable to reserve a certain number of places inthe INAS for technicians with a number of years of professional experience.It might also be worthwhile to study ways that the ENEA and also the Agricul-tural Research Institute in Bambey could be associated with the trainingprograms of the INAS.
1.57 Regarding the fast growing fishing industry, a bottleneck hasdeveloped because of the insufficient training of Senegalese fishermen. Theutilization and maintenance of new equipment demand skills which the majorityof the fishermen do not possess. Fishing further away from the coast requiresgreater knowledge of navigation, and participation of family enterprises inthe market economy necessitates knowledge of basic business management andaccounting techniques. A survey of the fishing sector will be undertakenshort:Ly and should determine detailed training needs for the different occupa-tions in this sector.
Management Training Needs
1.58 There is a genera:Lly recognized need in Senegal for well-qualifiedhigh- and middle-level managers in both private and para-public enterprisesand in the civil service. The Government is particularly concerned aboutthe sLtuation in the para-public sector, whose deficits represent an increas-ing burden on the Governmenl: budget. Accounting procedures are often inade-quate and management is poor. Managers usually have a reasonable generaleducation, but their skills have been acquired on the job and they lackknowledge of modern techniques of management and accounting which would beapplicable in the Senegalese situation. There definitely seems to be a
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case for the creation of a management development institute which wouldconcentrate initially on in-service training of functioning managerial staffof private and para-public sector enterprises, but which could also be usedfor the training of high- and middle-level civil servants. 1/ As a firststep toward the establishment of such an institution, a survey should beundertaken to identify the potential "clientele" and to determine theirtraining needs.
Long-term Planning
1.59 Close analysis of the Government's medium-term education plansreveals that the changes in budgetary allocation to different types of educa-tion will be only minimal. The improvement in technical education will beto some extent at the expense of primary education rather than of generalsecondary and higher education in specializations which will be increasinglyin oversupply.
1.60 The following table illustrates the implications of the proposedpolicy for the distribution of educational expenditure.
Table 18: PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION BY LEVEL OF EDUCATIONAND TYPE OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
(in percentage)
1976/77 1980/81 1995/96
Primary 41.9 40.0 36.7Middle level - general and technical 8.6 10.0 7.9Middle level - practical (EMP) - 0.6 14.1Secondary general 3.3 3.6 2.6Secondary technical 1.5 2.5 3.5Other secondary 11.4 11.6 10.0Higher education 21.0 22.7 20.7Other expenditure 12.2 9.4 4.5
100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: UNESCO Sector Mission
1.61 In the long run, only a third of the expenditures on education(or 2.3% of GDP) would be spent on primary education, reflecting the limita-tion of available resources and first priority for advanced education. Thekey problem seems to be the role of EMP. With this program the Governmenthopes to retain primary school graduates in rural areas, and stimulaterural development. EMP is at present still in an experimental phase, butit is very doubtful whether the above objectives can be achieved. In anycase, the Government should realize that development of EMP reduces thefunds available for primary education, and that a limitation of expansion ofEMP combined with a reduction of admissions into general secondary educationand university studies in humanities and languages, would free considerablefunds which could be allocated to primary education.
1/ World Bank Group project.,
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G. Housing
1.62 The housing poLicy in Senegal is biased in favor of the workers inthes modern sector, in particular towards the more affluent among them. Publicfunds and recurrent subsLdies are concentrated on types of houses that onlythe highest paid 10 percent can afford. Rents are tightly controlled and donol: increase with inflatLon. The rural housing policy gave poor results andwi:Ll be replaced by a cooperative approach, but public funding for ruralhousing will remain very low. The housing needs of the urban poor havegenerally been neglected. Since the Government has earmarked most slum areasclose to Dakar's center ior modern urban development, it is not improvingthese quarters, and from time to time, slum dwellers are moved to the out-skirts of greater Dakar. Since the old policy has not met expectations and iscreating severe financial' problems, the Government is shifting the emphasistowards self-help construction programs.
1.63 The urban housing problem has vast dimensions in Senegal. TheGovernment expects that t:he urban population will grow at a rate of 4.5percent over the 1971-2000 period. But this growth will range between 7 and 3percent for the different: towns, with greater Dakar in the upper range. Bythe year 2000, about 43 percent of the Senegalese population may live in townsas compared to 33 percent at present. The quick growth of the urban popula-ticin was due, to a large extent, to migration induced by the uneven urban/rural income distribution, but gradually the large difference between urbanand rural mortality rates is also becoming an important factor.
1.64 The total housing stock in urban areas can be estimated at about280,000 units of which 60 percent are poor quality. About 90 percent of theexisting units are private. This figure points to the dynamism of the privatehousing investment sector. At present, the annual average of good qualityhouses built by the private sector with official approval is about 2,000,roughly the same number as those built by public agencies. At least onethousand units should be added to account for illegal construction. Theannual private investment in urban housing can be estimated at CFAF 4 billion,i.e., CFAF 50 billion over the 1960-72 period. A striking characteristic ofthese private housing investments is that they are 90 percent self-financed.Public housing investments are considerably less. From 1960 to 1972, theGovernment invested CFAF 18 billion in housing through its two public housingagencies SICAP and OHLM 1/, and CFAF 2 billion on basic urban infrastructure.These investments, which account for about 3 percent of the average totalpublic expenditures, accommodate only 10 percent of the top wage earners ofthe urban population.
1/ SICAP - Soci&t& Immobiliare du Cap Vert; OHLM - Office d'Habita-tions A Loyer Mod&re. See paragraphs 1.67 and 1.68.
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1.65 Although there is no comprehensive data on the demand for urbanhousing in Senegal, one could use as a proxy the figures available for greaterDakar, where 50 percent of the urban population lives. According to the twohousing agencies (SICAP and OHLM), the unsatisfied demand for these subsidizedhouses is about 20,000 units for medium income groups. The housing shortage,however, is especially severe in low income groups. Since roughly 60 percentof greater Dakar's population is living in overcrowded, poor quality dwellings,one can estimate the housing shortage for low income groups at about 80,000units. The above figures would imply that on a countrywide basis, the urbanhousing shortage is on the order of 200,000 units. Conservative estimatesshow that this shortage is likely to increase over the forthcoming years atan annual rhythm of 10,000 units. A quick comparison between the buildingvolume of quality houses in the past and the growth of the existing backlogdemonstrates that a large proportion of the urban population will have to livein substandard housing for a long time to come.
1.66 Conscious of its limited involvement in housing and of the increas-ing housing shortage, the Government sought to tackle the situation withinthe framework of the Fourth Plan (1973/74-1976/77). About CFAF 20 billion forhousing projects were inscribed in the investment program, an increase ofabout 300 percent as compared with the investments which took place overthe last decade. CFAF 10 billion were allocated to the Cap Vert region (whereDakar is located) of which 3 billion were appropriated to the first sites andservices project in Dakar. So far, the achievements are below expectations.In the first three years of the Fourth Plan, only CFAF 9 billion out ofthe 20 billion programmed were committed or, in physical terms, 40 percent ofthe Plan's targets. The major constraint was the lack of capital, a problemthat became even more pressing after 1974 when building costs started toskyrocket. As a result of this situation, the Fourth Plan has done verylittle to improve the housing situation.
1.67 To implement its middle class housing program, the Government setup two housing agencies. The most important one (OHLM) is a publicly ownedinstitution created in 1960 to implement the Government's low-cost housingprogram. Over the 1960-1974 period, OHLM built about 7,500 low-cost housingunits mostly in Dakar for about CFAF 10 billion. Within the OHLM, a specialunit, the Direction des Parcelles Assainies, was created in 1972 to manage thesites and services scheme that aimed at developing 10,000 plots for self-helpconstruction near Dakar. OHLM is financed through national housing taxes andconcessionary loans, mainly from France. Over the 1960-1974 period, OHLMreceived about CFAF 7.3 billion in housing taxes and CFAF 4.2 billion in loansto cover its investment and operating costs. Despite the subsidies and lowinterest capital aid, the financial situation of OHLM is poor. Rents are toolow to cover investment and operating costs of the rented housing units.Moreover, the French aid agency (CCCE) decided to withdraw its financing.These problems are compounded by the dramatic increase in construction costswhich went up by 80 percent between 1973 and 1976. As a result, OHLM islacking long-term resources and is constantly running into liquidity problems.Although rents are far below the economic cost, OHLM's rental units are stillnot affordable to the overwhelming majority of the urban population. Aspreviously mentioned, only 10 percent of the wage earners can afford OHLMunits. Not surprisingly, applications for OHLM units stem from individualearnings from CFAF 300,000 per month to CFAF 700,000.
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1.68 SICAP is a semii-public institution created in 1950 to cater to themedium-income groups' demand for housing. From 1950 to 1973, SICAP builtabout 8,620 units in the Cap Vert region. Financing for SICAP's operationscame also from Government funds and French loans on soft terms. As in theOHLM case, CCCE withdrew its financing so that SICAP is badly in need oflong-term funds.
1.69 Besides budgel:ary and foreign concessionary funds, some financingfor housing was provided by the domestic banking system. The national devel-opment bank (BNDS) granted about CFAF 100 million in housing loans annuallyover the last decade. The analysis of BNDS's financial accounts shows thatil:s long-term loans are steadily decreasing, not only in relative terms, butalso in absolute terms. In 1968, BNDS long-term loans including industrialactivities stood at about CFAF 2 billion which declined to CFAF 1 billion in1974. When compared wit:h the roughly CFAF 1 billion annual contribution thatFrance used to channel into the building program, it is clear that BNDS is notin a position to replace these funds.
1.70 Faced with steeply deteriorating housing and financial conditions,the Government decided to put more emphasis on sites and services projects.About 22,100 plots are expected to be developed by OHLM and the DLrectorate ofUrbanism. The wisdom of involving two agencies in this program can be dis-ptuted. The estimated tcital development cost is about CFAF 4.6 billion withthe cost of prepared sites going from CFAF 225,000 in Dakar to CFAF 190,000 inthe provinces. OHLM's middle-class housing program will be stabilized at1,200 units a year with a total investment cost during the Plan period of CFAF16.2 billion. SICAP's ,crogram will decrease from 700 to 650 units a year withan investment cost of CFAF 6.6 billion over the four Plan years. Includingsome smaller items, the total four-year investment program amounts to CFAF27.8 billion.
1.71 This program resulted from a 72 percent cut-back on the originalproposals which were unfeasible by lack of financing. About CFAF 16 billionof the reduced program should come from domestic resources. A new treasuryaccount will be opened for this purpose funded from housing taxes 1/, rents,and sales of land and houses to the occupants. Also, a new specialized creditinstitution will be created (Credit Foncier). 2/ Foreign concessionaryfinancing is expected to contribute 78 percent to the sites and servicesprojects whereas the middle-class houses may attract 28 percent foreignfinancing. It is doubtful whether CFAF 16 billion domestic savings willbe available for housing over the Fifth Plan period. The Government hasconsidered using foreign commercial loans and giving guarantees and subsidieswith the purpose of lowering the interest burden on the beneficiaries.However, this is difficult to justify in view of the general shortage of fundsand the relatively high average income level of the beneficiaries. On the
1/ Under the present legislation, half of the housing tax is earmarked forOHLM, i.e., about CFAF 1.2 billion annually.
2/ In June 1979 a majority privately owned Housing Bank was founded tofulfill this function.
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contrary, subsidies on the middle-class housing programs should be stopped bycharging the beneficiaries the full cost of these houses and basing the rentson current construction costs and commercial interest rates. The Governmentshould promote long-term purchase contracts through which it could recuperatethe public funds invested, and encourage the private sector to increase itsshare in this sector by making prepared building sites available at full cost.Moreover, houses should eventually be allocated according to the ability ofthe beneficiaries to accumulate over a number of years, a certain down pay-ment, savings which would help to relaunch the building program.
1.72 Such a policy would still not provide for the rural population andthe urban poor. It would be unrealistic to assume that the Government couldhave a substantial impact on these categories within the Fifth Plan period.The important conclusion drawn from the analysis of demand was that a largepart of the Senegalese population will have to cope with substandard housingfor a long time to come. The policy should therefore be based on the improve-ment of slums and rural shelters rather than on their replacement. Because ofthe large number of people involved, even these improvements should be gradualso that part of the cost can be borne by the beneficiaries.
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Chapter II. MIGRATION 1/
A. Regiona. Population Distribution and Densities
2.01 A superficial observer could easily conclude that Senegal has nopopulation problem. Vast areas in the southeast are sparsely populatedand official estimates give a low overall population density of 26 personsper square kilometer or about 42 persons per km2 of arable land. But suchimlpressions and indices are almost meaningless in the Sahel region to whichSenegal belongs. About half of the farmers live under marginal conditionscrowded together in the groundnut basin where possibilities for yield in-creases are limited by t:he dry climate. In the south and southeast, rainfallconditions are more favorable and would seem to allow for much higher popula-tion densities. However, in the valleys endemic diseases have kept thepopulation down, and the often fertile plateaus have been rendered largelyuninhabitable by lack of drinking water. Senegal should, therefore, not beplaced in the category of countries without a land constraint. The ratioof population to usable land is uneven and demographic growth can only beabsorbed by steady progress towards developing new agricultural techniques andarable land.
2.02 Six more-or-less homogeneous geographical zones can be distin-guished in Senegal, but since statistics have an administrative base, thisreport has to use the seven provinces (Cap Vert, Casamance, Diourbel 2/,Fleuve, Senegal-Oriental, Sine-Saloum and Thias) as a proxy for the geographi-cal zones.
2.03 The first and most urbanized zone of Senegal is the axis from Dakar,situated at Africa's extreme west point, to Thids, roughly 50 km in theintterior. This zone will be described with the demographic data of theprovince Cap Vert, leaving out the city of Thias. The second geographicalzone is the groundnut basin, which is defined as the strip of land east ofCap Vert between the 600 and 800-mm isohyet stretching roughly 200 km into theinterior. A characteristic of this region is its dependence on groundnut andmillet cultivation. In this report the groundnut basin is identified with (a)the province of Diourbe]., including a large part of the sparsely populatedpastoral zone further to the northeast; (b) the province of Thies, whosewestern part is already linked with the urban economy of Cap Vert; and (c)the province of Sine-Saloum, half of which benefits from 800 to 1,100 mm ofrainfall allowing for scime agricultural diversification. A third geographiczone is composed of Senegal's major valleys, listed in north-south order:
1/ This section is a reduced and modified version of Section I of WorldBank: Migration and Employment in Senegal: An Introductory Report(Washington, D.C., September 24, 1976).
2/ Diourbel has recently been split into two new provinces: Diourbel andLouga. Most data are, however, available only for the previous adminis-trative boundaries..
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the Senegal River, the Sine-Saloum River system, the Gambia River and theCasamance. Only the Senegal River valley can be identified with a province,that of Fleuve. This most northern province includes a desert-like part ofthe pastoral zone. The Casamance valley is part of Casamance province whichis separated from the rest of Senegal by the enclave state, The Gambia.Although groundnuts are still the major crop in Casamance, this provincedistinguishes itself from the rest of Senegal by possibilities for agricul-tural diversification, thanks to annual rainfalls between 1,000 and 1,600 mm.The fourth geographical zone is the underdeveloped area in the southeast ofthe country, which includes the Senegal-Oriental province and the eastern partof Casamance. In the following analysis Senegal-Oriental is consideredrepresentative of this geographical zone although this province also includesthe city of Bakel on the Senegal River with a type of economy and strongoutward migration typical of the river valley. A fifth zone, the coastalstrip, with rich fishing grounds and underground fresh water reserves, couldnot be separated out in the statistics nor could the sixth zone which is thepastoral zone mentioned above.
2.04 Senegal's population is unevenly distributed over the differentprovinces with Sine-Saloum containing the largest proportion of the totalpopulation and the Senegal-Oriental the lowest (see Table 19). However, whenallowance is made for the differences in area, the Cap Vert region, where thecapital city Dakar is located, emerges not surprisingly as the densest(1,790 persons per km). Senegal-Oriental not only has the lowest proportionof the total population, but also the lowest density (less than 5 persons perkm). In general, the density of the population decreases systematically withdistance from the Atlantic coast.
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Table 19: TOTAL POPULATION OF SENEGAL BYPROVINCE AND DENSITY, APRIL 1976
EstimatedAnnual
Degree of Population DensityTotal Population Urbanization Growth Rate per Surface
Province '000 Percent (percent) (percent) _ km2 (km2)(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Senegal 5,085 100 32.5 2.6 26 196,722Cap Vert 985 19 84.2 4.6 1,790 550Casamance 736 15 14.9 1.6 26 28,350Dioubel and Louga 843 16 18.5 2.9 25 33,547
Dioubel (425) ( 8) (97) (4,359)Louga (418) ( 8) (14) (29,188)
Fleuve 528 10 26.9 2.1 12 44,127Senegal-Oriental 286 6 11.4 3.6 5 59,602Sine-Saloum 1,008 20 15.1 1.5 42 23,945Thies 699 14 34.2 2.9 106 6,601
Sources:
ccl. (1): Bureau national du Recensement: Resultats provisoires durecensement g4n6ral de la population d'avril 1976 (Dakar,22 July 1976, mimeo), p. 4, tableau 1: R&partition de lapopulation de droit par region.
ccl. (2) Division des Ressources Humaines: Prolection de la populationaLnd (3): totale pa.r r&aions et par strates (1971-1981 Dakar, Feb. 1976).
ccil. (4): Mission estimates.
ccl. (5)arid (6): World Heaelth Organization: Profil sanitaire du Senegal (Dakar,
September 1976), Annex table I.
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2.05 The level of urbanization in Senegal is high compared with othercountries in Africa or LDCs in general. In 1970/71, about 30 percent of thetotal population was living in towns of 10,000 people or more, of which nearlytwo-thirds were in the capital city of Dakar. An additional 14 percent livedin semi-urban areas (1,000 to 9,999 people), communities which have thecharacteristics of large rural villages. The rest of the population generallylived in villages with an average population of 150 people. In most parts ofthe country the rural population is organized in family groups called carrescomposed of the chef de carre, his younger brothers and the children. Acarre normally consists of four to five family units with each family unitaveraging about six people (or a total of 25 to 30 persons).
B. Ethnic Groups
2.06 Some 90 percent of Senegal's African population belong to six majorethnic groups: Wolof, Serer, Peul, Toucouleur, Diola and Manding. The Wolofis by far the largest accounting for 40 percent of the population. Few Wolof,Serer, or Diola live outside Senegal. Many Toucouleur do, but the greatmajority live in Senegal. The Manding, Bambara and Soninke are groupingswhose main centers are found primarily in neighboring countries. The 500,000Peul (referred to as Fulani in Anglophone countries) are spread across themore arid parts of Western Africa and are estimated at 7 million in total.
Table 20: ETHNIC GROUPS
(in percent of total population)
1960 1970
Wolof 36.2 40.5Serer 19.0 16.0Peul ( Fulbe)
Fulani 12.3Toucouleur 9.2 22.8Diola 7.0 8.4 /1Manding, Bambara 6.4 8.6 /1Soninke 2.1 3.7Others 7.8
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
/1 Includes some assimilated immigrants.
Source: Harold D. Nelson: Area Handbook for Senegal (Washington, D.C.,U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974) and 1970/71 demographicsurvey.
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2.07 Most Wolof live in Diourbel, Thies and Sine-Saloum which togetherconstitute the northern and central groundnut basin. The Serer live mostly inthe southern part of Sine-Saloum, which is the southern groundnut basin. TheToucouleur live along the Senegal River in the Fleuve region, though theydo not extend into the delta area. The Diola live in west Casamance, theManding in the southeastern part of the country while Peul are scattered allover Senegal.
2.08 A long history of intermingling and intermarriage has made ethnicityof much less importance in Senegal than elsewhere, but caste and class areimportant. In contrast with many other African countries, caste and classoften override ethnic affiliations. Another reason for so much less inter-ethnic rivalry may also be the fact that in Senegal the proportion of thepopulation who live in towns (32 percent) is much higher than the average forAfrica. An additional reason may be the unifying influence of the propor-tionately large Muslim population. Even among Serer only some 15 percent areChristians (though the proportion among highly educated Serer is much higher,which is why it is often mistakenly said that the Serer are predominantlyChristian). Many Senegalese say that ethnicity has little bearing on behaviorpatterns and that official policy is to foster national loyalty rather than todwell on ethnic differences. This may be true, but the fact remains that ina migration study, ethnicity is too important to be overlooked.
2.09 The Wolof are not only the largest group, but also economically themost dynamic. Their language is the lingua franca in towns and mixed vil-lages. Many Serer have chosen to call themselves Wolof, which might explainthe shift in their share of the population between the 1960/61 and 1970/71surveys. But, in general, ethnic groups have preserved their own languages.Even in Dakar there are a number of distinct ethnic quarters. For example,in one quarter virtually everyone is Diola. There is even some measure ofoccupational specialization by ethnic groups. In rural areas the Wolof andSerer are mainly involved in groundnut production but with some differencesin technology. The Peul were once nomadic herdsmen, and while they continueto be primarily pastoralists, the majority are now settled and interspersedwith the other ethnic groups. Insofar as they migrate they do so only sea-sonally in search of pastures for their cattle or because of droughts. The1972/73 droughts wiped out 15 to 25 percent of their herds, and the herdsmenhad to seek refuge wherever they could. There is usually less integration ofthe Peul with other ethnic groups than among ethnic groups living in the samearea because of recurrent conflicts between the Peul and farmers over thepresence of the former's cattle near cultivated fields.
2.10 Marked differences exist in the degree of urbanization according toethnic groups. With les3 than a third of the total population living intowns, 40 percent of the Wolof reside in cities, but only 20 percent of theSerer. The majority of the urbanized Serer and Wolof live in the Cap Vertregion which is adjacent to their region of origin. Part of this differencein degree of urbanization can be explained by the tendency of some Serer toregister as Wolof, but the difference is too large not to indicate a basic
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difference in behavior. Dakar itself was originally Lebou territory, afishing people belonging to the Wolof ethnic group who managed to maintain arelatively important role in this modern town despite their small numbers.Out of the 27 percent urbanized Toucouleur, a vast majority also lives in CapVert due to the long standing Toucouleur migration to Dakar. Notwithstandingthese high proportions, about half of the population of Cap Vert is Wolof,while the Toucouleur and Serer represent respectively only 21 and 11 percentof Cap Vert's total population.
C. International Migration
2.11 Although the volume of international migration is not preciselyknown, it is safe to assume that it has had only a marginal influence onSenegal's population. At present, the number of immigrants in Senegal isestimated to be about 355,000 of whom 300,000 are from other African countriesand 55,000 are from outside Africa, many of them from France. The number ofSenegalese emigrants is estimated to be about 210,000 of whom 175,000 areliving in other countries in Africa and 35,000 in non-African countries,principally France. This gives a net immigration balance of about 145,000people. It must, however, be remembered that these figures include childrenof migrants born after the date of migration and that the period of migrationcould extend from zero to 30 or 40 or more years. Estimates of the number ofSenegalese living abroad and foreigners living in Senegal therefore, cannotprovide a basis for measuring the impact of migration on the current rate ofpopulation growth, but the magnitude of the numbers indicate its marginalimportance.
2.12 Over the last 10 years, however, the effect of internationalmigration on total population growth is most likely to have been positive.The number of immigrants increased from about 129,000 in 1960 to about 222,000in 1970. Taking into consideration deaths among the immigrants, these figuresimply a net immigration of about 114,000 persons during 1960-1970, or anaverage gain of 11,400 persons per year.
2.13 The little information available on emigration flows indicatesthat the annual net outflow has been lower than suggested by the number ofSenegalese living abroad. Since 1960 when the former French Sudan was dis-solved into a number of independent states, quite a large number of civilservants must have returned to their homelands. More recently, in 1972,the Government of Zaire requested the large number of Senegalese immigrantsresiding there to repatriate. For these specific reasons backflows must havebeen considerable. In 1973, 26,000 Senegalese were living in The Gambia, butover the preceding 10-year period this number had increased by only 400 peoplea year. The largest emigration over the last 10 years was probably to France,growing from negligible numbers in 1960 to 30,000 in 1975, and to the IvoryCoast where about 5,000 Senegalese reside. The movements of the Toucouleursand Peuls who live on both sides of Senegal's borders are difficult to assess;since there are no apparent reasons for net emigration of these groups;maintenance of the historical distribution over the different Africancountries over the last 16 years may be assumed.
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2.14 Senegal is obviously not part of West Africa's predominant migrationpattern from the arid regions in the north to the tropical zones in the south.The Arab orientation and differing ethnic background of Senegal's northernneighbors, and the different political systems that the bordering countries inthe south used to have are factors that explain the absence of substantialnorth-south movements. West Africa's second major migration pattern - fromthe interior to the coast - has manifested itself in Senegal mostly as adomestic migration flow. The directions of international migration by Afri-cans into and out of Seinegal have been as follows: of the 220,000 whowere born in an African country outside Senegal, the largest number of immi-grants came through the country's southern borders - about 75,000 from GuineaBLssau, 57,000 from Guinea, and 33,000 from The Gambia which is surrounded bySenegalese territory. 'rhese numbers represented a significant proportionof the population in the smaller countries of emigration. For example, theimmigrants from Guinea IBissau represented about 15 percent of the populationoi' that country; immigrants from The Gambia constituted 7 percent of thepopulation of that count:ry in 1970. Of the emigrants who left Senegal in1970, 50,000 went to the Ivory Coast, 25,000 to both Benin and The Gambia,20,000 to both MauritanLa and Guinea, 15,000 to Mali and 20,000 to othercountries.
2.15 African immigrants are distributed unevenly within Senegal.More than 46 percent havre settled in Casamance and represent about 16 percentof the total population of this southern province. The recently ended war ofindependence in Guinea Ilissau and the kinship of population on the two sidesof the frontier explain this situation. Only 11 percent of the immigrantshave settled in Senegal--Oriental but this group represents an even higherpercentage (17 percent) of the province's total population. Cap Vert andSine-Saloum have each received 17 percent of African immigration which isnegligible compared to the total population in these regions. Dalcar seems tobe the preferred place by immigrants from Mali and Mauritania. However,Mauritanian shopkeepers are found in villages all over Senegal.
2.16 The number of non-Africans in Senegal rose rapidly from about 20,000in the late 1940s to 61,000 in 1960/61. In the early 1960s their numbersdeclined, so that by 1970/71 there were about 55,000 non-Africans of whom30,000 to 40,000 were Europeans and about 15,000 to 20,000 were Lebanese. 1/Over 75 percent of them now live in Dakar and 64 percent of the men work incommerce or other services.
2.17 Of all residents born outside the country, 57 percent live in ruralcommunities and 12 percent in towns under 10,000 inhabitants. These highpercentages, however, are almost exclusively due to foreigners of Africanorigin. This group accounts for only 0.6 percent of the population of CapVert and must therefore not be considered an important factor in the urbandrift. Of foreigners in rural areas, about half lived in Casamance, 24percent in Sine-Saloum and 16 percent in Senegal-Oriental.
1/ Harold D. Nelson: Area Handbook for Senegal. Prepared by ForeignArea Studies of the American University (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office, 1974).
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D. Internal Migration Flows
2.18 The Senegalese appear to be an extremely mobile people, movingseasonally, cyclically and secularly in response to different economic condi-tions. At the time of the 1970/71 survey, as many as 503,000 persons or 15percent of the total population in the country was living in a region dif-ferent from the one in which they were born. This mobility is part of thevalues and traditions of the Senegalese people and has been acquired under thepressure of a harsh climate which demands a great flexibility to survive;ability to move ranks high among the tools of survival.
2.19 Seasonal mobility in Senegal is induced by the long dry period inwhich agricultural activity gradually comes to a complete standstill for afive-month period. Seeding is compressed into a very short period in June toallow for sufficient growing time. Weeding is concentrated into the firsthalf of the three to four-month growing season. In the drier parts of thecountry, the farm cannot sustain for a full year all the manpower needed inthe peak season, and part of the agricultural population has to find secondaryincome during the dry season. This pattern leads to a short "pull" foragricultural manpower around June and a "push" during January-May when theharvest is done. Activity in the cities is largely counter-seasonal. Duringthe summer months the schools are closed and many offices in Dakar are in lowgear because of vacations. Also, expatriates usually take their home leaveduring this period and release their servants. A new antiseasonal factor istourism, which flourishes in winter and has its low in the hot summer months.The consequence of rural push coinciding with urban pull in the winter, andrural pull occurring at the same time as urban push during the "hivernage"in summer, is a substantial temporary rural-urban migration. This typicalSahel phenomenon is of major importance for all questions related to migrationand urban drift.
2.20 From the 1970/71 demographic survey, which was carried out in threestages covering the same groups of families with intermissions of about half ayear, it can be concluded that every year 12 to 15 percent of the Senegaleseare on the move, of whom roughly one third cross provincial boundaries. 1/The first stage of the survey, the summer of 1970, coincided with one of theworst crop failures in the history of Senegal which certainly reduced thedemand for seasonal labor in that year and may explain the relatively lownumber of passagers (transients) in that period. But also for the normalsummer of 1971, the survey found that the number of passagers in rural areaswas equal or lower than during the winter (which is the dry season). The onlyexception was the Casamance region which has a more year-round type ofagriculture. One could conclude from this evidence that the push from the
1/ In the second stage of the survey 26 percent of the passagers (tran-sients) recorded during the first stage were still in the same location;in the third stage, 46 percent of the passagers recorded during thesecond stage were still in the same location. Thus an important part ofthe passagers were non-seasonal migrants, about 4 to 5 percent of thetotal population every year.
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agricultural sector during the dry winter season is more important than thepull during the wet sumier season. However, it should be borne in mind thatthe peak demand for agricultural labor is a matter of three to four weeks,much shorter than the full six-month survey periods.
2,21 For Cap Vert a more regular picture emerges when comparing the threestages of the survey. 'Cable 21 summarizes the results of the three stages.Only the data on passag?rs are shown and not those of the absentees since onlythe first category concerns physically counted people. About 80,000 passagerswere in Cap Vert during the dry winter season, and 40,000 during the wetsulmmer season which coincides with the slack period for Dakar. The temporarym:Lgration within the regions (indicated in the boxes) is roughly two-thirds oftotal movement. 1/
1/ See footnote page 48.
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Table 21: NUMBER OF TRANSIENTS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE AND PLACE OF ORIGIN /1
Place of OriginPlace of Senegal-Residence Stage L2 Cap Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Oriental Sine-Saloum Thies All origins
Cap Vert 1 6.0 1.7 6.8 3.5 0.5 5.0 6.6 30.12. 45.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 0.9 8.6 9.4 81.93 27.3 1.7 3.4 3.8 0.3 4.2 2.8 43.5
Casamance 1 1.5 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.42 2.4 28.9 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 34.13 2.5 37.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 41.6
Diourbel 1 1.9 0.1 7.2 0.9 0.1 1.8 0.6 12.62 2.5 0.4 26.7 1.1 0.2 3.4 1.4 35.73 1.9 0.2 18.2 0.7 0.1 1.5 1.4 24.0
Fleuve 1 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 9.92 2.7 0.2 2.1 14.7 0.2 0.7 1.3 21.93 2.1 0.3 0.9 2 0.0 0.6 0.4 13.5
Senegal-Oriental 1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 [ .7 0.4 0.1 5.12 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.7 13.6 0.6 0.0 16.43 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 14.1
Sine-Saloum 1 1.6 0.6 4.4 0.9 0.8 15.9| 1,7 25.92 3.1 0.9 5.9 1.5 1.0 54.6 1.5 68.53 4.3 0.9 4.2 1.0 3.1 53.4 2.0 68.9
Thies 1 4.1 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.2 |67 14.52 4.8 0.4 3.8 1.2 0.4 3.0 .2 38.93 3.4 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.0 2.6 [ 23.8
/1 A transient is defined as a person being in his present residence for less than 6 months. In the next stageof the survey, six months later, he has either moved again or is counted as a permanent resident.
/2 The 1970/71 survey was done in three stages, interviewing the same families in every round. The first stagewas held between May and November 1970; the second stage between November 1970 and May 1971; the third stagebetween May and November 1971.
Source: Direction de la Statistique: Enquete d6mographigue nationale 1970-71, Special tabulations: tji&rations:Mouvements passagers, chiffres extrapoles Serie 1/3 (Dakar, 1975).
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2.22 In the case of Senegal it is not justifiable nor possible to distin-guish sharply between cyclical and secular migration. On the contrary, allnon-seasonal migration must be seen as part of a two-way flow. The mainlong-term migration flows from the rural to urban areas occur in waves set offby crop failures, low farm prices or booming economic conditions in towns.Flows to the countryside occur when crops are good, farm prices high or urbaneconomic conditions depressed. The notion of "temporary" and "permanent"migration should also be used with caution; a large part of temporary migra-tion can probably be explained by unrealized expectations of better economicconditions while some types of migration appear to be temporary but arein fact part of a permanent cycle.
2.23 The main long-term migration flows are westward towards the Atlanticseaboard, with Dakar as the principal center of attraction. Other places ofattraction are the four next largest towns: St. Louis on the Senegal River,Thias close to Dakar, Kaolack on the Saloum, and Ziguinchor on the CasamanceRiver - all in the west of the country. Since the urban centers expandpossibilities for secandary farm products and non-farm incomes during the dryseason, the western part of the country is also more attractive for farmers.
2.24 Long-term migration can be analyzed by comparing place of residencewith place of birth. In 1970, nearly 37 percent of the population of the CapVert region was born elsewhere with a fair spread over the different pro-vinces, while only 8 percent of those who were born in the region lived inother provinces. The number of inter-regional migrants in Dakar is nearlyhalf of inter-regional migration for the country as a whole and thereforerepresents by far the most important long-term flow of people. Next in orderof importance of in-migration are the Thias and Sine-Saloum regions, but theproportion of in-migrants in these areas does not exceed 15 percent. On theother hand, the impact of out-migration was greatest in the Fleuve region; in1970 more than a quarter of the population born in the region had movedout. The impact of out-migration on the population in the neighboring Diour-bel region was also significant (20 percent).
2.25 During the 1960s inter-regional population mobility increasedconsiderably. Comparing the results of the 1960/61 and 1970/71 demographicsurveys, the proportion of people living in provinces other than where theywere born increased from about 11 percent in 1960 to 15 percent in 1970. Thepercentage increased in all provinces except Sine-Saloum: from 30 to 37in Cap Vert; 9 to 14 in the neighboring Thias region; and from 0.3 to 9.8 inSenegal-Oriental. The proportion of out-migrants also increased in mostregions: from 17 to 26 percent in Pleuve, 5 to 12 percent in Sine-Saloum and4 to 8 percent in Casamance.
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Table 22: RATES OF MIGRATION L/ BYPROVINCE FOR THE 1960-1971
PERIOD(percent)
In- Out- Net-Province migration migration migration
Cap Vert 28.5 3.4 25.1Casamance 1.9 5.3 -3.4Diourbel 4.2 8.8 -4.6Fleuve 2.1 16.0 -13.9Senegal-Oriental 13.6 5.8 7.8Sine-Saloum -0.7 7.7 -8.5Thies 9.6 7.8 1.8
All provinces 7.6 7.6 -
1L Number of migrants divided by the average population (excluding foreignimmigrants) during 1960-1971.
2.26 For some regions the demographic development during the 1960srepresented a break with past trends. Sine-Saloum with 15 percent migrants inits population had a net loss through migration of 58,000 people. Thisoutflow was mainly directed to Cap Vert (25,000) and Thies (12,000). A fairlylarge number (9,000) of migrants from this region moved eastward to Senegal-Oriental. These figures indicate a reversal of the migration stream, areversal which was related to the urban attraction of the Dakar-Thias region(obviously Kaolack the provincial capital of Sine-Saloum could not compete),and a further shift of the "groundnut frontier" which was still in the southof Sine-Saloum shortly after the war, but has since moved to Senegal-Oriental.This shift is also clearly demonstrated by the figures on Senegal-Orientalitself. In 1960/61 barely 500 people living in this province had been bornoutside of it. In 1970/71 the number was 22,600. Despite increasing out-migration, the population of Senegal-Oriental increased over these 10 yearsby 13,000 people.
2.27 In the other provinces past trends prevailed. Cap Vert had a netgain of 124,000 people over the ten years which represented by far the largestflow in absolute numbers. The net gain of Thias was 8,000 people. Next toSine-Saloum, Fleuve had the greatest net outflow of 46,000 people. Thisoutflow was mainly directed to Dakar, but about 8,000 went to Senegal-Oriental. Whereas the migration from Sine-Saloum into Senegal-Orientalrelated to expansion of groundnut cultivation, it can be assumed that migra-tion from Fleuve relates to the prosperous zone of Bakel in the northeastcorner of Senegal-Oriental which is in fact part of the geographical zone ofthe Senegal River basin.
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E. The Senegalese Migrant
2.28 To understand migration the profile of the migrant should be ana-lyzed and placed against the background of his origin and destination.
2.29 Most of the rural migrants are poor and uneducated but not withoutalternatives or financial support. One of the reasons is that Senegalesefarmers still can find some land if they are willing to move. Except for thefew large estates of the marabouts, the religious leaders of the Mouride sect,land is fairly equally distributed. 1/ Traditionally the right to landbelonged to the person (or family) who burned the natural vegetation. Thehead of the family normally gave permanent user rights to persons who werewilling to clear the trees on a piece of this land. In many villages, thevillage chief still has some land to allocate. He gives out land to make hisvillage larger and himself more prestigious. Membership in the extendedfamily also gives some rights to land or to the income of other family members.
2.30 The majority of the rural/rural migrants are, however, not permanentsettlers, but people working in a temporary relationship with the farmer.These relationships take two forms. A special case are the "Talib&s", whoare youngsters given to the marabout for religious education, and who earntheir living by working on the marabout's fields. More common are temporaryworkers who are fed by t:he farmer and get some land to use plus the necessarytools and animals in exchange for a number of days' work on the farm. Sincethe worker is there for a short time only, he usually sells his crop to thefarmer. If the temporary labor originates from another ethnic group (usuallynon-Senegalese) he is called "Nav6tane"; if he belongs to the same ethnicgroup he is called "Sourgha". With the increasing mobility of people thisdistinction is becoming more vague.
2.31 If married people have previously worked as Sourghas in the lesspopulated regions, they sometimes go back and ask the head of the village forsome land of their own and to stay. Most Sourghas are, however, unmarried andcome to earn the dowry for their bride. This system is, in some traditionalcommunities, reinforced by a custom which denies rights of land to anyunmarried man or which connects full manhood to a period of working as aSourgha. The system ensures that the elder people in the village either getthe work of the young generation or the cash from the dowry.
2.32 The capacity of farmers to use temporary labor depends not only onthe size of their land but - since they have to feed the workers -- also on thestock of food that is left over after the dry season. In completely monetizedregions the farmer may buy this food, but in most cases he tries to store asufficient supply of millet. When a region becomes over-populatecd, the farmermay get into a situation where he cannot even feed his own family during thelast months before the new crop comes in. This can play an important role inmigration decisions. Crop failures, mostly because of droughts, bring margi-nal situations to an immediate crisis.
1/ See Appendix A.
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2.33 If land is becoming scarce and the farmer cannot feed his familyduring the full year, he, or members of his family, have to look for a second-ary income in other sectors during the dry season, or for permanent migration.If they decide to go to town, they are often helped with shelter, jobs andimmediate necessities by relatives living there. Help in the provisionof shelter is reflected in the reproduction of ethnic communities in Dakar.Assistance in finding jobs is reflected in ethnic concentrations in certainoccupations as, for example, newspaper selling (Toucouleur) and housework(Diola). This support allows the migrant to be without employment for sometime, which gives him greater bargaining power in the job market. On theother hand, members of extended families in the towns can usually come back tothe village and count on subsistence and shelter. This produces a two-waystream of people and income transfers which broadens the economic base of thegroup.
2.34 The mechanisms of urban migration in Senegal are very similar forboth the lower and higher educated migrant. Both categories can get supportfrom their village of origin or from relatives already established in town.The most likely difference between the educated and uneducated urban migrantsis that the educated will have less inclination to return to the countryside.Education of the classical type can therefore be an important cause of urbanunemployment. In Senegal - except for St. Louis - this problem has not yetassumed large proportions. The adult literacy rate was only 10 percent in1970. Secondary education reached only 15 percent of the relevant agegroup. On the other hand, the modern sector has been growing by 3 to 4percent annually during the last five years, creating still sufficient newjobs each year for this particular group. The number of rural people withsecondary education is still too low to influence migration flows signifi-cantly.
2.35 Some evidence can be found in the population surveys that migrationof people who would qualify for the modern sector is still very low. About 85percent of the migrants who had been in their present residence for less thansix months had no more than a few years of religious education or no formaleducation at all; more than half had an agricultural background. An insigni-ficant number (3 percent) had secondary education or more. Finally, the shareof inter-regional migration (which can be used as a proxy for long distancemigration) out of total short-term migration was about equal for all levelsof education (about 35 percent). This supports the view that education in therural areas is so scarce that the higher educated can easily find better payingjobs in their own regions. The relevant factor in inter-regional migrationturns out to be the degree of urbanization. Lower educated people, inparticular, more often cross regional frontiers if they are urbanized (about45 percent) than if they are completely rural (about 35 percent). Thisprofile disappears for those with primary education or more.
2.36 A good part of migration is done by young unmarried people.Once they are settled they marry and raise a family. Married migrants oftenleave wives and children in the rural areas where they live cheaply andproduce their own food. Only if the migrant is successful does he send for
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his family. Particularly in Cap Vert, migrants under 15 years of age werea much lower percentage of the total migrant population than the share oftheir age group in the total population. Only in Fleuve was the differencenot too large. This may indicate that the inflow of population in thatprovince is of a type that implies less economic risk, which is the case forb.ackflows from other areas, movements of nomads in the pastoral zone ofFleuve, or families settling in irrigation perimeters.
2.37 Most migration appears to be related to desires for better income.The relatively low percentages of passagers that give jobs as motivation fortheir move (30% in the first stage, 13% in the second, and 20% in the thirdstage of the survey) is inconclusive evidence. Since an average farm house-hold consists of six people, the "job" may be the main motivation for arelatively small number, while the others will say they come for familyreasons. One should al3o bear in mind that a relatively large group ofmLgrants who are trying to get a job in town are living temporarily at theexpense of family membe:rs and may prefer to give a more personal touch to thereasons of their stay. The same applies to those who go back to the villages.Most of them have some productive activity and will stay if they can improvetheir situation. We are therefore inclined to add the majority of the 60 to80 percent of migrants who say they move for family reasons to the category ofpeople who move for economic reasons.
2.38 It would appear that migration as it occurs in Senegal is mostlydetermined by income possibilities at the margin rather than by the diffe-rences in the average of rural and urban incomes. People attracted by thehigher average income in the modern sector must have some grounds to thinkthey may qualify for modern sector jobs, an expectation usually derivedfrom family background or education. Such migration would give rise to"waiting-line" unemployment for which there is no strong evidence. On thecontrary, for the higher educated there appears to be no particular indicationof movement over regional frontiers. Uneducated migrants may have somehcope for modern sector Employment but know they do not qualify and have toaccept the income possibilities which the informal sector offers. If thepossibilities in the informal sector decline, the migration inflows woulddecrease and outflows increase. In Senegal, travel distances are quite short,and the inter-regional network of extended families provides fairly accurateinformation on the different labor markets in the country. Right of land doesnot seem to count as a reason for immobility. Although hard to prove withquantitative evidence, all indications are that the population will respondto relatively small changes in income opportunities.
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Chapter III. EMPLOYMENT
A. Employment Trends since 1960
Modern Sector Employment
3.01 On the basis of the quite unreliable estimates available for earlieryears, we calculate that employment in the modern sector in Senegal grew at anannual rate of perhaps 1.6 percent from 1960 to 1975 (see Table 23), in otherwords at a rate certainly no higher than that of the total national laborforce and well below the rate of growth of the urban labor force. It followsthat the bulk of the new additions to the urban labor force have either beenabsorbed into informal sector activities or have increased the pool ofunemployed.
Table 23: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN THEMODERN SECTOR, 1960 and 1975
Average1960 1975 1975 Annual
(Index: Growth1960 Rate_100) (%)
Government (incl. 45,000 62,000 137.77 2.1public enterprises)
Private 75,000 88,000 117.33 1.1
Total 110,000 140,000 127.27 1.6
Source: 1960: Derived from American University, Special OperationsOffice, Foreign Area Studies Division: Area Handbook forSenegal (Washington, D.C., US Government Printing Office,August 1963), p. 381.
1975: Preliminary estimates of Division des Ressources Humaines,October 1976.
3.02 Employment in industry stagnated during the early 1960s, althoughthe estimates are sufficiently erratic to leave considerable doubt aboutactual movements (see Statistical Annex Table 6); it was only in 1969 that thefigure for industrial employment finally got onto a trend that carried itwell past its 1959 level. Over the 15-year period from 1960 to 1975, theaverage annual growth rate in industrial employment came to 3.0 percent.Indeed it was only in 1975 that industrial employment reached the level of25,000 projected for 1964 in the First Plan. 1/ Value added in industry in
1/ Republique du Senegal, Assemblee Nationale: Plan Quadriennal de Devel-oppement 1961-1964 (Dakar, March 1961), p. 107.
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constant prices fluctuated around a rising trend but the average amnualrate of increase declined from one quinquennium to the next; it was 6.5percent from 1960 to 1965, 4.8 percent from 1965 to 1970 and 4.4 percent from1970 to 1975, averaging 5.2 percent over the whole 15 year period, implying anincrease in productivity (value added per worker) over the period of 2.1percent. From 1970 to 1975, the rate of increase in productivity was only0.3 percent per year.
3.03 Industry in Senegal suffered in the early 1960s from two sets ofmisfortunes: the closing of a number of markets of francophone West Africain which Senegal had enjoyed free entry as part of the French West: Africaduring the 1950s; and the fluctuations in domestic purchasing power as aresult of a cyclical series of drought years and poor groundnut harvests. Inmore recent years, Senegalese industry increased its range of import substi-tution but further development in that sphere continues to be limited by theconstraints of domestic (particularly rural) purchasing power. More recently,Senegalese industry is not doing too well in competition with the IvoryCoast.
3.04 Employment in modern sector construction, which came to around11,500 in 1959 1/ and in 1961 2/ later showed an absolute decline and was only9,500 in 1975. 3/ Employment in modern sector commerce and services increasedby only about 0.5 percent per year. Government employment (Goverrnment admin-istration and public sector enterprises) increased from around 45,000 in1960 4/ to around 58,000 in 1968 5/ (3.2 percent per year) but has since grownby only 1.0 percent per year to around 62,000 in 1975; over the 15-year period,this implies an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent.
3.05 Part of the erratic nature of the employment estimates for themodern sector is due to differences in coverage of and response to surveys.There is, however, a significant additional element of ambiguity introduced byuncertainty with respect to the size of the "temporary" work force. TheSONED survey of the modern sector in 1974, for example, notes a "seasonal"work force in the modern sector of between 34,000 and 37,000 per cquarter 6/
1/ CINAM/SERESA: Rapport general sur les perspectives de dgveloppement auS&n6gal. lere partie, (Dakar, July 1960, 2e edition January 1961), p.11-7 (13).
2/ BIT: Rapport au Gouvernement de la Republique du Senegal sur l'elabora-tion d'un programme de main d'oeuvre (by Leon Reneau) (Geneva, 1962), p.9.
3/ Preliminary estimate by Division des Ressources Humaines, October 1976.4/ American University, Special Operations Office, Foreign Area Studies
Division: Area Handbook for Senegal (Washington, D.C., U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, August 1976), p. 381, adjusted for expatriates.
5/ Ministere du Plan et de l'Industrie: Troisiame plan quadriennal dedeveloppement &concmigue et social 1969-1973 (Dakar, July 1969), p. 317.A similar figure may be derived from ILO: Memorandum au Gouvernement dela Republique du Sen&gal sur l'organisation de la planification de lamain d'oeuvre (by Edouard Floch), pp. 22-29.
6/ See Statistical Anrtex Table 5.
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in addition to the 62,300 permanent employees counted as of 31 December ofthat year. Since the turnover within this floating work force is not known,the total number of persons actually working (or any derived estimates of fulltime equivalents or rates of under-employment) remains something of a mystery.
3.06 The most recent data on the structure of employment in the modernsector by branch of activity are contained in an analysis by the Division desRessources Humaines 1/ of declarations submitted to the Direction des Impots asof December 1975. Employment, numbers of establishments and average earningsby branch of activity are summarized in Table 24. The table shows considera-ble variation in average earnings per worker from one branch to another,partly as a function of the different proportions of expatriates among thepersonnel. Construction, which uses a high proportion of relatively unskilledlabor, shows the lowest average earnings of any of the branches. The analysisby the Division des Ressources Humaines also presents an interesting set ofbreakdowns by size of establishments (see Statistical Annex Table 8). Thelarger-scale establishments employing 100 workers and more account for overtwo-thirds of total modern sector employment (33.5 percent in establishmentswith 100-499 workers and 35 percent in establishments with 500 workers andmore). The share of Cap Vert in the modern sector is most marked in the 20-49worker size class; but for all size classes with 10 workers and more, Cap Vertaccounts for between 85 and 90 percent of both establishments and of workers.
1/ Division des Ressources Humaines: L'emploi et les salaires dans lessecteurs priv& et semi-prive au mois de decembre 1975 (Dakar, Octobre1976), from which summary data are reproduced in Statistical Annex Tables7 and 8 below. An alternative source of data on numbers of establish-ments by size of establishment (employees per establishment) is theDirection de la Statistique of the MinistAre du Travail which producessuch tabulations by branch of activity and by province every two years(see Statistical Annex Tables 9 and 10 for 1974 data).
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Table 24: EST'ABLISHMENTS, WORKERS AND AVERAGE EARNINGS IN MODERNSECI'OR ENTERPRISES (PRIVATE AND SEMI-PRIVATE), 1975
AverageAnnual
Branch of Activity Establishments Workers /1 Earnings- ________________ ______________ __________ ('000 CFAF)
Agriculture, fishing 59 7,702 433M[ining 18 1,416 778Manufacturing 159 20,481 465Electricity, water, gas 30 3,213 1,031Construction 119 9,500 393Commerce, hotels, restaurants 971 17,035 638Banking, insurance 71 2,464 1,212I'ransport, communicaticin 162 6,718 891Other services 329 9,105 636Unspecified 1 4 --
I'otal 1,919 77,638 601
1! Including expatriates and other non-Africans.
Source: Division des Ressources Humaines: L'emploi et les salaires dans lessecteurs prive et semi-prive au mois de decembre 1975 (Dakar,October 1976), tables I-A, II-A, V-B. See also Statistical AnnexTable 7 below.
Agricultural Employment.
3.07 The employment situation in agriculture is succinctly described bythe results of the secc,nd round of the 1970/71 demographic survey. 1/ Thes.urvey was carried out during the period December 1970-May 1971, which is theslow season for agricultural activity, with the result that among the ruralpopulation 15-64 years of age who defined themselves as being in the laborforce, 58.4 percent were recorded as "unemployed" since they had not workedd'uring the previous wee.k. Most of the rural unemployed were in fact part ofthe agricultural labor force, having previously worked in agriculture.E'urthermore, the figure underestimates the degree of seasonal under-employment in Senegalese agriculture since a considerable number of seasonallyunemployed agricultural workers were also to be found in urban and semi-urban areas.
3.08 The definition of the labor force in rural areas, where most of thepopulation is pulled into agriculture at the peak season, also suffers from
1/ Ministare des Finances et des Affaires economiques, Direction de laStatistique and Ministbre du Plan et de la Coop6ration, Division desRessources Humaines: Enquete demographigue nationale 1970-1971: Analysedes resultats du 2ame passage portant sur la population active (Dakar,May 1974).
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elements of ambiguity. The extent of female participation in the laborforce is particularly difficult to ascertain with any precision as is shown bythe remarkable (and unlikely) variation in female participation rates from oneprovince to another that appears from the replies to the 1970/71 demographicsurvey. It is also illustrated by an incident that arose in an agriculturalexperimental unit in Koumbidia (Sine-Saloum). When a system of liftingwater with animal traction was installed, the chef de quartier decided tolimit use of the water thus obtained to watering the animals and had the womencontinue to get household drinking water from wells by hand in order tokeep them from idleness (desoeuvrement). Subsequently, truck gardening wasintroduced and the women were permitted to take advantage of the more abundantsource of water to grow vegetables. 1/
3.09 In the Sahelian regions of Senegal, particularly in the centralgroundnut basin, agricultural employment will continue to depend on theseasonal rainfall pattern. Given this overriding constraint there are,nevertheless, several ways of increasing the returns to work in agricultureand also of extending the length of the agricultural season: (a) throughthe application of animal and chemical fertilizer; (b) through the provisionof improved agricultural equipment and a judicious degree of mechanization;and; (c) in the river valleys, particularly that of the Senegal River, throughwater control and irrigation.
3.10 In the areas cultivated by the Serer, animal manure is traditionallyused in a systematic way to restore soil fertility; and although chemical fer-tilizer is hardly effective for cultivating groundnuts in Senegalese conditions,it is effective in growing millet. The integration of livestock raising intofamily farming is an option which has several pay-offs in the availability ofoxen and cows for traction, the creation of manure for fertilizer, and even-tually, the sale of animals for meat as an additional source of income.Agricultural experimental work in a Wolof-settled area in the south of Sine-Saloum has put major stress on developing this aspect of the family farm. 2/
3.11 Traditional farming in Senegal used only manpower and hand toolsuntil around 1927 but systematic efforts to generalize the use of animal drawnfarm equipment were made in the 1930s and after World War II in the 1950s.Horse and donkey drawn seeders and weeders found ready acceptance, and since1955 the use of ox-drawn equipment has been spreading rapidly. 3/ At theanimal-traction level of technology, the introduction of farm implementsraises productivity and the incomes arising from farm employment and has
1/ Institut de Recherches Agronomiques Tropicales et de Cultures Vivrieres(I.R.A.T.): Bilan succint d'un essai de developpement experimental: Lesunit6s experimentales du Sine-Saloum au Sen6gal: 1969-1973 (Bambey:Centre National de la Recherche Agronomique, June 1974), p. 25.
2/ Institut de Recherches Agronomiques Tropicales et de Cultures Vivrieres(IRAT): Bilan succint. . . , op. cit.
3/ J. Monnier: La mecanisation au S6n6gal: Effets sur la production et1'emploi (Bambey: Centre national de Recherches agronomiques, November1974).
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probably reduced the pressures leading to out-migration from rural areas. 1/The animal husbandry needed for raising and maintaining animals for tractiona:Lso serves to spread out the productive agricultural working season.
3.12 Motorized traction has so far been introduced only by Governmentaldevelopment agencies in preparing heavy soils in the river valleys and parti-cularly in the Senegal Rtiver Delta. In the case of the Delta, the directeffect has been to increase employment by opening up new areas for settlement.However tractorization :Ls an issue for the near future in the development ofthe middle valley of the Senegal River.
3.13 Water control on a large scale is far beyond the scope of theindividual peasant and has required Government intervention for the planningand construction of the primary instruments: dams and irrigation facili-ties. These facilities also permit the introduction of industrial crops suchas cotton and the indusl:rial farming of food crops such as rice and tomatoeswhich open up a limited volume of additional employment opportunities in theafifected areas.
B. Employment Projections
Population and Labor Force
3.14 The results of the population census of Senegal carried out inApril 1976 indicate an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent during the 1970s,rather than the 2.2 perc:ent previously used in official forecasts. For theccoming decades, the population growth rate is now expected to rise to a peakof 3.1 percent after the! turn of the century and then to fall baclc somewhat.Over the next three plan periods, the rates are projected to increase as shownin Table 25 from 2.6 percent between 1976 and 1981 to 2.8 percent between 1985arLd 1989, or an average of 2.7 percent over the period.
1/ This conclusion is no longer valid for certain densely populated regionsin the Groundnut Basin. The introduction of light mechanization hasreduced farmers' dependence on nav&tanes and sourghas (temporary labor)during the summer months; it also made village heads more prldent aboutgiving out land to newcomers.
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Table 25: POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE (ACTIVE POPULATION AGED6 YEARS AND OVER), SELECTED YEARS, 1976-1989
Year /1 PopulationProjectedAnnual Labor ForceGrowth Participation Aged 6 YearsRate Rate /2 and Over
(x) '000 M ('000)
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1976 2.6 5,115.7 /3 32.7 1,673.81977 2.6 5,248.7 32.5 1,707.31981 2.7 5,816.2 31.8 1,849.91985 2.7 6,470.3 31.1 2,012.81989 2.8 7,226.0 30.5 2,205.4
Percent:
Average annualrate of growth1976 - 1981 2.7 2.1
l July of each year./2 Labor force divided by population./3 Projected to July 1976 from April 1976 census estimate of 5,085,388
at 2.6% per year.
Source: Preliminary estimates by Ministry of Planning, Division of HumanResources, October 1976.
Col. (2): Projected from April 1976 at rates shown in col. (1).Col. (3): Tableau I of October 1975 document of the Division des
Ressources Humaines, Projections de la population active(1971 - 2000) divided by tableau I of the August 1975document, Projections demographigues sur la base de1'enguete 1970-1971.
Col. (4): Col. (2) x col. (3).
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3.15 The labor force participation rate is expected to decline from32.7 percent in 1976 to 31.8 percent in 1981 to 30.5 percent in 1989.The labor force is defined to include those in the working ages who areworking and those who are capable of working and are looking for work (the un-employed). In the case of Senegal, the working ages are taken as 6 years andover, which means that children who are actually working are included in thelabor force but not those who are not working. This accounts for the remark-ably low overall rates of labor force participation shown. An increase in therate of school attendance will by itself reduce the labor force participationrate.
3.16 The breakdowns of the projected population totals by sex and byzone (urban and rural) are shown in Table 26. The expected rate of growthof the urban populatioa over the next three plan periods to 1989 is 4.1percent per year; for the rural population, it is 1.9 percent per year.The urbanization rate (urban population divided by total population) isprojected to rise from 32.5 percent in 1976 to 34.9 percent in 1981 to 38.8percent in 1989.
3.17 The sex and zonal breakdowns of the labor force are shown in Table27. The labor force participation rate for males is projected to declinefrom 48.4 percent in 1976 to 47.1 percent in 1981 and to 44.9 percent in1989; for females, from 17.5 percent in 1976 to 17.0 percent in 1981 to 16.6percent in 1989. The urban participation rate, which is already lower thanthe rural participation rate because of higher rates of school enrollment inurban areas among the younger ages, is projected to decline less rapidly thanthe rural participation rate.
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Table 26: POPULATION BY SEX AND BY ZONE (URBAN AND RURAL)SELECTED YEARS 1976-1989 /1
Total PopulationAverageannual Urbanizationgrowth By_Sex ('000) BY Zone ('000) rate (%)rate (% '000 Males Females Urban Rural (5) i (2)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
1976 2.6 5,115.7 2,519.5 2,596.2 1,664.1 3,451.6 32.5
1977 2.6 5,248.7 2,585.0 2,663.7 1,731.5 3,517.2 33.0
1981 2.6 5,816.2 2,864.5 2.951.7 2,027.4 3,788.8 34.9
1985 2.7 6,470.3 3,186.6 3,283.7 2,384.8 4,085.5 36.91989 2.8 7,226.1 3,558.9 3,667.2 2,803.5 4,422.6 38.8
Average annual 2.7 2.7 2.7 4.1 1.9rate of growth,1976-1989 (%)
/L July of each year.
Source: Preliminary estimates by the Ministere du Plan, Division des Ressources Humaines,October 1976.
Column (2) - Projected from April 1976 at rates shown in Column (1).Columns (3) through (6) - Using the proportions for each year as in Division des
Ressources Humaines: Proiections d6mographigues sur la base de V'enquete 1970-71(Dakar, August 1975), Tableaux I and II.
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Table 27: LABCiR FORCE AGED 6 YEARS AND OVER BY SEX AND BY ZONE(URBAN AND RURAL), SELECTED YEARS 1976-1989
Year /1 Labor By Sex _ By ZoneForce Males Females Urban Rural
Number /2(thousands):
1976 1,673.8 1,218.5 455.3 458.5 1,215.31977 1,707.3 1,243.9 463.4 476.6 1,230.71981 1,849.9 1,349.3 500.6 553.8 1,296.11985 2,012.8 1,465.2 547.6 641.6 1,371.21989 2,205.4 1,597.2 608.2 743.8 1,461.6
Average AnnualRate of Growth 2.1 2.1 2.2 3.8 1.4(percent)
ParticipationRate /3 (percent):
1976 32.7 48.4 17.5 27.6 35.21977 32.5 48.1 17.4 27.5 35.01981 31.8 47.1 17.0 27.3 34.21985 31.1 46.0 16.9 26.9 33.61989 30.5 44.9 16.6 26.5 33.0
/1 July of each year./2 Using participat:ion rates below./3 Labor force divi.ded by total population, as derived from Division des
Ressources Humaines: Proiections de la population active (1971-2000)(Dakar, October 1975), tableaux I, II, and III; and Projectionsdemographigues sur la base de l'enquete 1970-1971 (Dakar, August 1975),tableaux I, II and III.
Source: Preliminary estimates by Ministere du Plan, Division des RessourcesHumaines, October 1976.
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Urban Employment
3.18 Of the estimated population of Senegal of 5.1 million in July1976, 32.5 percent (1.6 million) was urban. For the 5.8 million populationprojected for 1981, the proportion that may be expected is 34.9 percent (2.0million). The labor force participation rate for the urban population(including in the labor force persons aged 6 years and over) is estimated at27.6 percent for 1976 and 27.3 percent for 1981. The urban labor force forJuly 1976 is thus estimated at 458,500 and projected at 553,800 for 1981.
3.19 Of the urban labor force in 1976, 30 percent were employed inthe modern sector: in private sector enterprises, in public sector establish-ments and in the Government. An estimate of the breakdown of urban employmentin the modern sector in 1976 is shown in Table 28 separately for Senegal andfor Cap Vert.
3.20 The size of the urban informal sector can be estimated only veryapproximately: only a small part of it has been enumerated in any systematicway, while the frontier between informal sector activity and open unemploymentis difficult to delineate. The numbers in the enumerated categories withinthe informal sector are limited: 34,000 artisans counted (undoubtedly under-counted) in a 1972 census carried out by the Direction de la Statistique;5,000 domestic servants declared to the social security agency (perhaps onequarter of the total number of persons working as domestic servants); and15,000 petty traders reportedly identified in a survey carried out in Cap Vertin the mid-1970s. These 54,000 represent only one fifth of the 227,000 in theurban informal sector estimated in Table 29 as the residual element in theurban labor force on the assumption of an open unemployment rate of 20 per-cent. On this latter assumption, the urban informal sector absorbs 50 percentof the urban labor force.
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Table 28: URBAN EMPLOYMENT, SENEGAL AND CAP VERT, 1976
Senegal Cap Ver _-Private Public Govern- Total Private Public: Govern- Total
Branch of Activity sector sector ment sector sector mentestab- estab-lishments lishments
Agriculture, fishing 7,70D 2,300 - 10,000 4,200 400 - 4,600Mining and quarrying 1,400 - - 1,400 900 - - 900Manufacturing 20,500 - - 20,500 18,200 - - 18,200
Electricity, water, gas 3,200 - - 3,200 2,000 - - 2,000Construction 9,500 - - 9,500 8,900 - - 8.900Commerce, hotels, restaurants 17,003 - - 17,000 15,900 - - 15.900Transport and communications 6,70) 6,300 - 13,000 6,500 2,900 - 9,400Banking and insurance 2,50) - - 2,500 2,400 - - 2,400Other services and Government 9,10) 9,400 45,900 64,400 8,300 8,000 21,000 37,300
Total Modern Sector Employment 77.60) 18,000 45,900 141,500 67,300 11300 21 000 99 600
Registered artisans 34,00') - - 34,000 22,000 - - 22,000Household personnel 20,00) - - 20,000 16,000 - - 16,000
Grand Totail 131,600 _18 00 45,900 195,500 105,300 11 300 21,000 137 600
Source: Vth Plan.
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- 69 -
3.21 This rate of open unemployment is consistent with the labor forcestatus estimates derived from the 1970/71 demographic survey. 1/ A lowerestimate of open unemployment (e.g. 15 percent) would increase the (residual)estimate of the number of unidentified persons in the informal sector to250,700 (55 percent of the urban labor force).
3.22 The projections of urban employment to 1981 presented in Table29 are relatively optimlistic. For Senegal as a whole industrial employment(mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and construction) is projected toincrease by 10,000 over the five-year period from 1976 to 1981; employment inservices is projected on the basis of a rule-of-thumb ratio of 1.2 in servicesto 1.0 in industry. The resulting increase of 22,000 for the private sectorimplies an annual growth rate of 5.1 percent over the period of the FifthPlan. 2/ Employment int public sector establishments is projected to increaseby 4,100 (4.5 percent per year) and in the Government by 8,000 (3.2 percentper year). 3/ Informal. sector activity is directly linked to the size of thepopulation in urban areas; in Table 29 employment in the urban informal sectoris projected to increase at the same rate as the total urban population.Within the informal sector, the number of enumerated artisans may be expectedto increase by at least the rate of employment in the modern sector (4.5percent per year) particularly if a program for the promotion of artisanalactivities is put into effect. The number of domestic servants is projectedto increase by less than 2 percent per year. Employment in the residualcategory covering petty traders and others would then increase by 4.5 percentper year. On these assumptions, total urban employment would rise by 4.4percent per year as opposed to an increase in the urban labor force of 4.0percent per year; open unemployment would increase in absolute terms (by 1.7percent per year) but the urban unemployment rate (urban unemployment dividedby the urban labor force) would show a marginal decline from our assumed 20percent in 1976 to 18 percent in 1981.
3.23 The implications of these projections for Cap Vert are also workedout in Table 29. The total population of Cap Vert is projected to increaseat 4.6 percent per year, compared with a population growth rate for Senegalas a whole of 2.6 percent per year. Cap Vert is already heavily urbanized(an estimated 84 percent in 1976) and will become slightly more so (85 percentin 1981). The increase in the labor force of Cap Vert is projected at 3.2percent per year; an assumption that the small rural share of the Cap Vertlabor force will increase at the same rate as the rural labor force in Senegalas a whole implies a growth rate of 3.6 percent for the Cap Vert urban laborforce, somewhat below the 3.85 percent per year projected for the urban laborforce in Senegal as a whole.
1/ Direction de la Statistique et Division des Ressources Humaines:Enguete demographique nationale 1970-71: Analyse des resultats du2eme passage portant sur la population active (Dakar, May 1974).
2/ 1976/77 to 1980/81.
3/ In view of the required reorganization of the para-public sector and arecently launched program of budgetary austerity, this estimate mayprove to be too optimistic.
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3.24 Employment in the modern sector is already heavily concentratedin Cap Vert (72.2 percent of Senegal); the projection in the table putsits growth at 4.6 percent per year, the same rate as for the modern sectorin Senegal as a whole. Employment in the informal sector is projected togrow at the same rate as the total population of Cap Vert (4.3 percent).Projecting the number of artisans at this same rate of 4.6 and only a smallincrease in the number of domestic servants leaves the number of petty tradersand others to increase at a rather high rate of 5.7 percent. Such a develop-ment would imply an absolute decline in the urban unemployment rate (unemploy-ment divided by labor force) in Cap Vert from 20 percent to 17.3 percent.
3.25 It should be stressed once again that the demarcation betweenthe less well defined activities in the informal sector and unemployment isporous in reality and arbitrary in our estimates. Nevertheless it is inter-esting that the sum of the unemployed and the residual petty traders andothers in these projections declines slightly from 40.3 percent of the CapVert urban labor force in 1976 to 39.4 percent in 1981. In the short run,given the plausible rates used in our projections, the employment situation inCap Vert thus seems likely to improve somewhat.
3.26 According to the employment estimates of the Division des RessourcesHumaines, the modern private sector employed 2,850 expatriates in 1975 (seeTable 30): 400 in agriculture and fishing; 880 in industry and construction;790 in commerce, hotels and restaurants; and the remaining 780 in transport,banking and other services. The total number of expatriates came to less than4 percent of the total labor force; but as noted in the section on incomedisparities above, their share of the total wage bill is much higher. Thelarger firms insist that it is to their own financial interest to replaceexpensive expatriates with less expensive Senegalese as soon as competentreplacements can be recruited and trained. According to the UNISYDI, one ofthe major employers' organizations in Senegal, some 300-400 of the 800-oddexpatriates in private sector industry and construction are not replaceable,but 400-500 jobs can be Senegalized over a reasonable period of time.However, the planning period can be rather long; for more highly qualifiedengineering personnel, for example, training a replacement can take 6-7years.
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Table 30: EMPLCIYMENT IN THE MODERN PRIVATE SECTOR BYBRANCH OF ACTIVITY AND NATIONALITY, 1975
OtherBranch of Activity Senegalese Expatriates Foreigners Total
Agriculture, fishing 7,285 399 78 7,702Mlining, quarrying 1,256 79 81 1,416Manufacturing 19,355 468 658 20,481Electricity, gas, water 3,100 58 55 3,213Construction 8,728 276 496 9,500Commerce, hotels, restaiurants 14,923 789 1,327 17,039Transport, communiCaticon 6,052 324 342 6,718flanking, insurance 2,248 115 1(1 2,464Other services 7,980 404 721 9,105
Total 70,927 2,852 3,859 77,638
Source: Division des Ressources Humaines: L'emploi et les salaires dans lessecteurs prie& et semi-prive au mois de d6cembre 1975 (Dakar,October 1976), _ableau III-A.
3.27 It should be realized, however, that new investment in the privatemodern sector, particularly if it entails the investment of foreign capital,will in the s.hort run lead to a further increase in the number of expatriates.The process of Senegalization will then operate on a rising total of expatri-ates. Taking as a target a reduction in the proportion of expatriates by 25percent during the 5-5year period 1977-1981, at the same time that the totalmodern private sector work force grows by 22,000, would result in a reductionin the total number gf expatriates of only 110 persons from 1976 to 1981 (seeTable 31).
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Table 31: MODERN SECTOR EMPLOYMENT BY SKILL LEVEL AND BYNATIONALITY (PRIVATE SECTOR), 1976 AND 1981
Estimated Projected1976 1981
Skill level Expatriates Other Total Expatriates Other Total
Semi-skilled 2,850 56,050 58,900 2,740 72,860 75,600and above
Unskilled - 18,700 18,700 - 24,000 24,000
Total 2,850 74,750 77,600 2,740 96,860 99,600
Source:
1976 and 1981totals : Division des Ressources Humaines: Preliminary estimates,
Oct. 1976. See Table 29 above.
1976 : Expatriates: Division des Ressources Humaines: 1'emploiet les salaires dans les secteurs prive et semi-prive aumois de decembre 1975 (Dakar, Oct. 1975), tableau III-A.See Table 30 above.
1976 : Skill level breakdown based roughly on SONED results for1974. See Table 4 above.
1981 : Mission estimate: skill level proportion same as 1976;share of expatriates in total projects at 75% of 1976proportion.
3.28 The number of new openings for Senegalese in the modern privatesector implied by a total increase of 22,000 jobs augmented by a 4 percentannual rate of replacement of retirements and departures from the existingwork force (attrition) and by a 25 percent rate of replacement of expatriates(Senegalization) comes to about 37,000 over the 5-year period (see calculationin Statistical Annex Table 11). Of the total, 28,000 of the new entrantswould be at a semi-skilled job level or higher. At the same rate of attri-tion, the public sector would absorb 26,400 new entrants (12,000 into newjobs and 14,400 into vacated positions).
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C. Employment Implications of Senegal's Two Growth Axes
Investment Costs per Job
3.29 In view of the country's need for raising both agricultural andindustrial output and employment, the Senegalese plan has two major axes ofdevelopment: river valley development through major projects centering onwater control; and a faster rate of industrialization centering on a numberof major industrial projects concentrated in or near Cap Vert and Dakar.These are conceived as two parts of an integrated strategy, but if sufficientfinancing for both does not become available, they may turn out to be alterna-tive strategies. The employment implications of the two axes of developmentmay be relevant if a choice has indeed to be made.
3.30 Development of the Senegal River turns on two major constructionprojects: a dam at Diama in the Delta to provide protection from encroachmentof sea water into the river during the period of low flow starting in Decemberof each year, a situation which is seriously aggravated during drought years;and a flow regulation and hydroelectric power dam at Manantali in the middlevalley. Each of these will permit extensive irrigation. The Diama Dam willpermit doublecropping on about 60,000 hectares. The Manantali Dam will eventuallypermit the irrigation of 255,000 hectares upstream from Bakel. 1/ On theSenegal side of the river, the organization charged with carrying out theprogram is the public sector Societ& d'Amenagement et d'Exploitation desTerres du Delta (SAED), which was originally set up to grow rice in the Delta.SAED's approach has been to use tractors and relatively heavy equipment toprepare the land for colonization by new settlers. For working the heavysoils of the Delta, tractorization is indispensable. For the middle valley,a more labor-intensive approach has been formulated, but is hardly reflectedin the official action plan.
3.31 An estimate of potential employment in the Delta once the irrigationpossibilities of the Diama Dam are exploited indicates almost a doublingof the number of "jobs" in agriculture (at 190 days per year), animal hus-bandry 'and fishing from 1975 to 1985 (see Table 32).
1/ This figure includes the area indicated under the Diama Dam; the Manan-tali Dam would make the Diama Dam superfluous.
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Table 32: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE,ANIMAL HUSBANDRY AND FISHING IN THESENEGAL RIVER DELTA, 1975 and 1985
Location within Delta 1975 1985
Employment A
Senegal 19,400Mauritania 11,700 /2Total 31,000 60,000
L1 At 190 days per year per worker./2 Of which modern irrigated area: 33,800 ha.
Source: G. Feral (ILO): "Memorandum on agricultural employment in theSenegal River Delta within the Context of Future Irrigation Works",in World Bank: Migration and Employment in Senegal: An Introduc-tory Report (Washington, D.C., September 24, 1976), Annex II, pp.13, 16, 17.
3.32 Full support should be given to the proposal for the middle valleyto postpone tractorization as long as possible by training the present villagepopulation to use improved labor-intensive techniques to work the light soilsof the perimeters of the cuvettes 1/ which are traditionally watered by theriver. Faster development should be pushed only after completion of theManantali Dam. The potential employment resulting from the mechanized irri-gation development of some 3,000 hectares 2/ per year on the Senegalese sideof the river valley could be estimated at some 4,400 jobs a year. Taking 3hectares per family with a family size of 8 persons and a labor force parti-cipation rate of around 26 percent, each 1,000 hectares will support 333families consisting of 2,664 persons and some 700 working members. Totalinvestment costs would come to about CFAF 1.0 million per hectare or aboutCFAF 1.4 million per worker. However, with a more labor-intensive approach andless hectares per family (2 ha), the number of jobs could easily be doubled.
3.33 The tentative program for industrial development during the FifthPlan presented by the Ministare du Developpement Industriel et de l'Environne-ment includes a number of smaller industrial projects in food processing,textiles, wood and paper, chemicals, metal working, construction materials,etc. which should create some 2,900 new jobs at an average investment cost of
1/ The hollows in the river valley.
2/ On the Senegalese side of the river alone, 3,000 hectares a year wouldalready be a high estimate.
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$L2,850 per job (see Statistical Annex Table 13). The program also includesseveral large-scale induistrial complexes that would cost close to $100,000 perjob created. The Cayar phosphate-petroleum complex 1/ would cost somethinglike $175,000 per job created; Dakar Marine would cost $73,000 per jobcreated; since these projects give an inadequate economic rate of return,their justification appears to be very weak. The Kaolack integrated textileproject has a much lower investment cost per job created and seems reasonableby international standards (see Table 33).
3.34 All of the industrial projects, as would be expected, have a higherinivestment cost per job created than does the low level agricultural develop-ment project for the middle valley of the Senegal River described above.
Absorptive Capacity of Dakar
3 35 The notion of the absorptive capacity of a city as small as Dakar ismeaningful not so much in terms of the absolute numbers of people it canphysically accommodate as in terms of the rate at which the urban economycan expand to provide them with employment and income within the constraintsol the limited resourcei; of the national economy. In 1976, Dakar had apopulation of 800,000 which made up 15.6 percent of the national populationand almost half of the urban population; Cap Vert had 985,000. Continuationol: a population growth trend of 7 percent for Dakar implies that the citywould reach a populatiorL of 2 million by 1990, when it would contain 28percent of the national population; by the year 2000 it would be at 4 millionand would contain 40 percent of the national population. If at the same timethe growth trend of 6 percent for the entire urban population continued, therural population would start to decline around 1990 and urban places otherthan Dakar would begin to lose population by the year 2000. Just in terms ofthis arithmetic, it is reasonable to expect the growth rate of Dalcar and ofthe Cap Vert to taper off before 1990. Even if it did not, Dakar is, byinternational standards, a relatively small city and there is nothingespecially frightening about the prospect of a city of 2 million or more onthe Cap Vert, although It does raise questions as to when it would be possibleto provide adequate levels of urban services to the additional inhabitants.
1/ In a recent Government decision this project was dropped from theprogram.
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Table 33: INVESTMENT COSTS PER JOB IN PROPOSED PROJECTSAND SOME INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Statistical concept and US$branch of activity equivalent /1
A. Investment cost per "Job" created:
1. Dakar Marine 73,0002. Cayar complex (cancelled) 175,0003. Kaolack integrated
textile project 13,0004. Senegal River Valley
developmentMechanized Approach 4,400Labor-intensive Approach 2,000
B. International estimates of ratioof value of physical capital toless qualified labor in selectedmanufacturing industries:
5. Cotton, yarn and tissue 7,3006. Textile, needle work and
rope products n.e.s. 33,8007. Knitted goods 9,4008. Ready made clothing 6,600
/1 rough estimates.
Sources:
Line 1 : Minis tare du D&veloppement industriel et de l'Environ-nement: Pr9paration du Ve Plan: Commission de Planifi-cation No. 2: Energie, industrie, artisanat (Dakar, 5 June1976), p. 42.
Line 2 and 3: mission estimates
Line 4 : Derived from: SCET International: Analyse des cons&-quences de deux rythmes d'&quipement de la vallee duS&n6gal (Paris, Dec. 1976), Tables A.1, A.5, A.6, A.8,A.ll.
Line 5 to 8 : Bohuslav Herman: The optimal international divisionof labour (Geneva, International Labour Office, 1975), pp.141-143. Herman's estimates appear to be in 1971 prices.We have inflated them by an index of 175 (representingthe increase in the unit value for exports of manufac-tured goods from developed market economies from 1971 to1975 according to the United Nations Monthly Bulletinof Statistics).
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3.36 A rapid rate of population growth does make it more difficult tosafeguard the standards that the new (and older) residents of the urban areawill enjoy: of housing, of infrastructure, of access to urban services, andof incomes from work (or from not working). There is no doubt that thecreation of urban infrastructure and the provision of urban services areeffective income and employment generating techniques. The question is howmuch of them can the economy afford.
3.37 The real limiit to "absorptive capacity" is the amount of basicfoodstuffs and raw mateirials that the national economy can provide for urbanconsumption and urban productive activity. If the basic foodstuffs wereasisured, the problem of creating effective demand for other goods and servicesthat urban dwellers can produce could be solved in the urban context. Theissue would then be simply to increase the total production by the urban laborforce of goods and services that people want to buy, that the State is willingand able to pay for, ancl that can be exported to foreign purchasers.
3.38 Since the basic foodgrains consumed in Dakar are imported ratherthan domestically produced, the essential constraint on urban activity is thevolume of exports to pay for imports. So far, these exports have come pri-marily from agriculture (groundnuts) and to a smaller extent from mining. Acontinued hemorrhage of manpower from the countryside to the city will havetwo effects: a reducticin in the share of the population living off subsis-tence agriculture and producing its own food; and possibly a reduction inthe production of ground'nuts. 1/ To function, the urban economy will have toincrease its own output of goods and services for export in order to be ableto purchase the additional foodgrains needed.
3.39 The present reality of Senegal is marked by the mobility of itspopulation: people from rural areas come to town as seasonal migrants duringthe dead season in agriculture. Longer-period circular migration is common,and almost everybody in town has close relatives in rural areas. The closepersonal links and the fact that a good part of the urban population consistsof recent migrants undoubtedly speed up reactions to changes in the relativeprosperity of the city and the countryside. The odds are high that in thepresent generation, a severe deterioration in urban conditions would result ina drift back to the countryside, in particular among the rural born. In animportant sense, the situation is asymmetrical: the rural born are attractedto the city, although they may move back and forth; the city born are notattracted to the countryside and are not likely to move to rural areas underany normal circumstances. As the urban population increases, an increasingshare of the total population is urban-born and the mobility of the populationis bound to decrease.
1/ Unless the outflow of farmers is compensated by increased mechanization.
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3.40 The share of the city born in the urban population is important inanother way. Only the city born or raised are likely to have the connections,the debrouillardise l/ and the training to obtain jobs in the modern sector.Especially if the new in-migrants are uneducated, the city born will normallyhave a decided advantage over the migrants in getting modern sector jobs evenat the mcst unskilled levels. The newer residents are therefore more likelyto be working in the informal sector where mobility is also high. Overthe next few years the number of Dakar-born and bred members of the Dakarlabor force will increase at a lower rate than the number of jobs in the modernsector. The flexibility now built into the urban situation by the mobility ofpart of the labor force between the rural economy and the urban informalsector will therefore be maintained for the next decade. With the increas-ing size of the population in Dakar, however, the number of Dakar-born andraised will increase at a considerably higher rate than employment in themodern sector. As a greater proportion of the Dakar-born perforce enter theinformal sector, the urban situation will tend to lose some of its presentflexibility.
3.41 Nevertheless, the rate of in-migration or out-migration will con-tinue to be a consequence of the degree of prosperity of the city, which alsomeans that if urban incomes fall, particularly relative to alternatives inthe countryside, the attractive force of the city will diminish. The numberof people to be absorbed will vary with the "absorptive capacity" of thecity.
1/ Resourcefulness
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Chapter IV. THE URBAN INFORMAL SECTOR 1/
4.01 It is in the nature of the development process in Senegal thatexpansion of the urban based modern sector will continue to attract absoluteinc:reases in the labor force much greater than the modern sector can absorb,and it is likely that over the next decade, employment in the modern sectorwi].l at best be able to grow at least at the same rate as the total urbanlabor force. In these circumstances, the informal sector will continue toplay its current role of a staging area between the rural world and the modernurban economy, of providing low income employment for a good portion of theurban labor force, and of providing low cost goods and services for primarilylow income consumers. The informal sector now makes an indispensable contri-but:ion to employment, output and consumption. It is important to find ways toinc:rease this contributicn by helping informal sector producers to increasethe!ir productivity and tca realize more of their income and output generatingpotential.
A. Employment and Incomes in the Urban Informal Sector
4.02 The members of the work force that we include in the urban informalsector are the small-scale producers of goods and services: artisans,small traders, small-scale transporters, sellers of petty services anddoumestic servants. Casual laborers employed by the modern sector on atemiporary basis are a border line case (one among many) that may account forsome of the unidentified participants in informal sector activity since suchindividuals are likely to pass back and forth between the modern sector andthe informal sector. The numbers we estimate as being in the informal sectorin 1976 (see Table 29) are as follows:
1/ This section is based on a draft paper by Meine Pieter van Dijk: Develop-ing the informal sector in Senegal: A study of the context and potentialof the Senegalese informal sector (Dakar, International Labor Office,October 1976).
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OtherSenegal Cap Vert provincial
capitals
Artisans 1/ 34,000 22,000 12,000
Artisans d'art 4,300 2,200 2,100Artisans de production 23,100 15,800 7,300Artisans de service 6,600 4,000 2,600
Domestic servants 2/ 20,000 16,000 4,000
Small traders 3/ 15,000 10,000 5,000
Others 4 158,000 37,200 120,800
Total informal sectoremployment 227,000 85,200 141,800
4.03 The Direction de la Statistique has identified 58 crafts(corps de metiers) in all: 12 among the artisans d'art, 20 among theartisans de production and 25 among the artisans de service. (Thenumber of workshops by craft as tabulated by the Direction deStatistique is given in Statistical Annex Tables 17 to 19). Among theartistic craftsmen, jewelers and weavers are the most numerous in allareas, with jewelers in the lead in Cap Vert and weavers in the leadin the other provincial capitals. Among the artisans de production,tailors account for more than half, followed by woodworkers and leather-workers. Blacksmiths are relatively more important in the provinces than inDakar where they have probably evolved into welders and other metal workers.Among the artisans de service, the largest group are the general mechanics,followed by barbers.
1/ Direction de la Statistique: Enquete sur les structures etl'exploitation artisanales (1972), draft tables (Dakar, 1976).
2/ Of these, only 5,000 are registered for social security.3/ IDET CEGOS survey, Direction du Commerce interieur, 1973. Of these, the
Ministry of Finance counted only 1,555 licensed small- and medium-sizedtraders, according to Communication Conseil Interministeriel, 27 March1972.
4/ Includes artisans and small traders not identified by the surveys,and probably apprentices not picked up by the surveys.
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4.04 Information on incomes in the informal sector is almost completelylacking. However it has been possible to extract some estimates from datacollected in 1975 and 1976 by the OHLM 1/ from renters of dwelling ulnits inthree neighborhoods of Dakar who earn between CFAF 15,000 and 55,000 permonth (see Table 34). This obviously sets a fairly high floor for thesample of incomes, but is nevertheless interesting to find that there are aconsiderable number of persons in this income range who do work in theinformal sector. In the sample, the average monthly income of those workingin the informal sector (CFAF 24,900) was only a little below that of modernsector workers (CFAF 28,900). The informal sector workers living in Medina,the n,eighborhood closest tc the Plateau (the modern center of Dakar), had thehighest average income of the three neighborhoods; those in outlying Pikinehad t.he lowest. Among the modern sector workers, those living in Grand Dakar,the neighborhood nearest the city's industrial zone, had the highest averageincome.
4.05 A 1976 pre-test af a survey of the informal sector to be carried outby the International Labor Office's regional employment team in Dakar in1977 indicated that cash payments to apprentices (aside from costs of lodgingand the provision of food and clothing to them) are almost universal, rangingfrom less than CFAF 500 per week to well over CFAF 1,000 and averaging aroundCFAF 1,050 per week (CFAF 4,500 per month). The average weekly income ofapprentices found by Dieng and LeBrun in a survey carried out in 1974 forUNESC'O 2/ was CFAF 957. Journeymen and laborers in the ILO pre-test earnedin the neighborhood of CFAF' 4,650 per week (which would give a monthly incomeof CFAF 20,000 if they were working full time).
B. Inputs and Outputs of Informal Sector Producers
4.06 On the input side, informal sector commodity producers purchasemost of their raw materials, both locally produced and imported, from themodetn sector. 3/ The introduction of new materials encroaches further ontraditional local sources cf supply.
1/ Office d'Habitations 3 Loyer Modere (Office for Medium Rental Housing).
2/ The tables have been reproduced but their analysis has not yet beencompleted.
3/ Chris Gerry: Petty producers and the urban economy: A case stidvof Dakar. World Employment Program Research Working Paper WEP 2-19/WP8 (Geneva, International Labor Office, September 1974).
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Table 34: INCOMES PER MONTH IN SELECTED ACTIVITIES, A COMPARISONBETWEEN GRAND DAKAR, MEDINA AND PIKINE
Grand Dakar Medina Pikine WeightedActivity Average Average Average average
No. income No. income No. income income
Informal Sector:
Mobile trader 19 21,578 19 22,315 12 20,645 21,635Laundry 0 - 6 19,250 3 20,000 19,438Shopkeeper 1 25,000 2 25,000 11 27,727 27,143Small trader 14 27,093 14 27,607 7 23,500 26,609Jeweller 1 35,000 9 28,555 1 32,500 29,545Teacher 1 15,000 1 20,000 4 19,500 18,833Mason 1 27,000 1 40,000 1 20,000 29,000Casual labor 20 24,653 9 21,000 7 20,038 22,270Woodworker 0 - 1 30,000 1 32,500 31,250Religious leader 6 26,250 6 28,333 3 19,500 25,733Painter 2 25,000 0 - 2 22,500 23,750Restaurant owner 1 30,000 3 28,333 5 20,000 23,889Tailor 14 22,642 28 25,660 11 25,181 24 774
Total 80 25,383 99 26,337 68 23,353 24,913
Modern Sector:
Driver 22 31,697 5 30,932 3 32,067 31,606Maid/house boy Li 9 23,624 10 28,569 0 - 26,227Watchman 5 26,186 5 25,609 2 22,500 25,338Mason 2 26,588 5 26,600 0 - 26,596Employee 3 30,904 8 24,963 2 23,000 26,032Woodworker 7 36,408 2 28,423 0 - 34,633Painter 8 30,594 1 21,000 2 18,000 27,432Welder 2 39,825 2 34,058 1 30,000 35,553Tailor 3 24,677 1 20,960 0 - 26,596
Total 61 30,056 39 26,790 10 25,113 28,890
/1 Presumably registered with social security.
Source: Various OHLM surveys, 1975 and 1976. The sample is not random since only people who renta room or a house and earn between CFAF 15,000 and 55,000 were included. Averages werecalculated by M.P. van Dijk.
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4.07 It is generally assumed that informal sector producers sell tothe lower income groups of the Senegalese population, but if this is therule there are many exceptions to it: the major market for locally-produced artistic handicrafts is the tourist trade; buyers from all incomelevels purchase in the community markets; modern sector merchants purchaseartisanally-produced goodis for re-sale in downtown shops. Recen.ly, theGovernment has been taking an interest in procurement of goods and servicesfrom informal sector producers in particular for construction of buildings inthe provincial centers. In furniture making and tailoring, and embryonicsystem of subcontracting of semi-finished inputs to the informal sector isdeveloping. At the same time, informal sector furniture makers and tailorscompete with modern sector producers. Efforts to increase the demand for theoutput of informal sector producers will have to act on all of these aspectsof the situation.
4.0)8 As total demand increases, the ability of the informal sectorproducers to compete more effectively with imports and with the local modernsector can be improved by Government action or, in some cases, non-action. Inthe case of construction, for example, it is possible for small jobbers orgroups of jobbers to construct some buildings which have up to now beenreserved for the modern sector. In the site and services project at Cam-barene, the market for residential housing can be left to small-scaleentrepreneurs - or a factory can be set up to pre-fabricate houses. In theSenegalese context, the only advantage of prefabricated housing would be thatit might increase the rate of production of dwelling units. On most othergrounds, prefabricated housing would be disadvantageous as it would have ahigh import component; the factory would absorb a considerable amount ofcapital; and it would use relatively little labor because of the technologyinvolved. It seems self evident that one way of making the massive drift ofpopulation to the cities viable is to absorb as much manpower as possible inconstruction of the basic shelters that the population requires.
4.09 One way of encouraging subcontracting would be to permit (or activelypromote) the physical location of small-scale producers close to modern sectorenterprises.
C. Government Attitudes and the Institutional Frameworkfor Policy toward the Informal Sector
4.10 Except for the artisans d'art, informal sector workers have moreoften been victims than beneficiaries of Government action. An authorizationsysl:em that requires five certificates concerning birth, registration and thepaymaent of various taxes virtually excludes street-traders (banabanas)from exercising their business. The informal collective-transport system(cars rapides) has suffered when imports of new vehicles were forbidden andspare parts became more and more scarce. A strict licensing system forced anumber of vehicles out of business while certain routes were restricted to theofficial bus system. Weavers, who were already having trouble competing withmodern cloth, were restricted from the quartier de Bopp, a neighborhood wherethey were relatively well established.
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4.11 There exists a juridical form for the artisan who is definedas someone working for his own account, exercising a manual trade, directinghis own business, working himself and possessing proof of his professionalcompetence. An artisan satisfying these criteria can obtain a carte profes-sionnelle with which he can be inscribed in the register of artisans (registredes metiers). A registered artisan can benefit from certain tax regulationsif he does not employ more than one workman: his profits will be taxed at 50percent of the regular rate and he pays only CFAF 2,500 as the minimum tax.Once registered, he has the right to post a sign indicating that he is offi-cially an artisan, the right to apply for Government orders, and the right tovote for a representative to the Chamber of Commerce. He is obliged to dosome simple book-keeping. Most artisans do not bother to register andtax payment is a hit or miss affair.
4.12 Other possible juridical forms include forming a partnershipand registering with the Ministry of Interior, starting a cooperative underthe aegis of the Office National de Cooperation et d'Assistance pour leDeveloppement (ONCAD), or establishing a corporation with full or limitedliability.
4.13 The Office Senegalais de l'Artisanat (OSA) was set up in 1973 toorganize and assist the artisans but was dissolved in 1976. Among its otherfunctions, the OSA advanced raw materials to the artisans d'art but was unableto recuperate its advances quickly enough to stay liquid. After the dissolu-tion of the OSA, the handicrafts village at Soumbedioune on the seaside justoutside Dakar and the function of assisting the artistic artisans were turnedover to a new organisation, Societe Senegalaise de la Promotion de l'Artisanatd'Art (SOSEPRA). The task of looking after the artisans de production and theartisans de service was turned over to the Societe Nationale d'Etudes et dePromotion Industrielle (SONEPI), created in 1969 to make feasibility studiesfor future projects and to assist small-scale Senegalese enterprises. SONEPIhas set up a new Centre de Promotion de l'Artisanat de Production et deServices which envisages the creation of a new guarantee and participationfund for artisans comparable to the existing one managed by SONEPI for smallenterprises. Since SONEPI's basic aim has been to help promising smallenterprises to make the transition from the informal sector to the modernsector, a different approach relative to the artisans, who will in most casesremain artisans, will have to be defined.
4.14 Another organization which could help small operators in trade andtransport is the Societe Nationale de Garantie et d'Assistance en Commerce(SONAGA). SONAGA provides a 50 percent guarantee for loans made bycommercial banks to small enterprises and could extend this to the artisanalsector as well (although it is likely to be reluctant to do so).
4.15 The Societe Financiere Senegalaise pour le Developpement Indus-triel et Touristique (SOFISEDIT) is an organization through which medium- andlong-term credit to buy equipment could be channeled to artisans. The BanqueNationale pour le Developpement du Senegal (BNDS) could be a channel forsupplying short-term credit to artisans.
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D. Edutcation and Training for the Informal Sector
4.16 At the present time, the skills of the self employed arl:isan orsmall trader are acquired through the apprenticeship system. Apprenticeswc,rk with a master for periods of less than three years to as much as sevenyebars before achieving the status of journeymen (compagnon). In I)akar, itappears that apprentices do not pay for their training and in most casesreceive small sums of mcney from the master to cover some necessary expenses.At. the end of the period, of training, the apprentice will usually receive ace!rtificat de fin d'aprentissage. Traditional caste links to specific tradesare breaking down with the greater mobility of society resulting from urbangrowth and migration and with the springing up of new activities created byan industrializing society. The level of formal education among apprenticesis low, especially among those born outside Cap Vert: of the apprenticesincluded in the 1974 UNESCO survey by Dieng and Lebrun 1/, 64 percent hadreceived no formal education at all.
4.17 There are two institutions in Dakar which are currently set up totrain artisans in a limited range of fields. One of these is the Centre deFormation Artisanale which was set up in 1963 to train craftsmen to work ontheir own as jewelers, leather workers, woodworkers, potters, basket-makers and watch repairmen. Trainees were originally recruited among primaryschool level. Courses last two years; those who pass the examinations receivea brevet d'etudes professionnelles (BEP). The other institution is theCours d'Entrainement a la Vie Active, which was started in 1969 by a privateecumenical institution to prepare school dropouts to finish primary education;but the emphasis has since been shifted to providing vocational training toprepare young people for self-employment as photographers, bookbinders,potters, and electricians. Here courses also last two years and students arenow recruited at the secondary school level. In reality very few of thegraduates of either institution start their own workshops; most try to findjobs in the modern sector. One obvious suggestion to be made is that theexisting training facilities should extend their scope to include artisanalactivities for which there is likely to be an increasing demand in the future,for example the building trades (masons, plumbers, welders, electrical equip-ment repairmen, etc.) and repair mechanics (for automobiles, bicycles andmotorcycles, and other machinery).
4.18 There are at present almost no facilities for providing additionaltraining to active artisans, although eventually the Association pour laFormation au Senegal (AFORS) and the Centre de Formation et de Perfection-nement Permanent (CFPP) might be able to extend their activities to informalsector artisans. There is a major need for a training system that reaches outinto the market place, a sort of urban extension service. The DevelopmentFinance Corporation Department of the World Bank is at present trying apilot project for lending to informal sector producers in Dakar that wouldmake the Centre de Promotion de l'Artisanat de Production et de Service ofSONEPI into the nucleus of such an urban extension service.
1/ Op. cit., unpublished.
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4.19 A training program for the informal sector should be based on theprinciple that the training should not alienate the trainee from his originalenvironment (whether rural or urban); as few barriers as possible should existfor artisans to participate in such training. Training programs will have tobe specially developed and the accent should be put on practical knowledge ofinterest to the artisans, including explanation of the principles behind theequipment they use and the machinery they have to repair; on simple managementtechniques (concerning organization of work and elementary marketing princi-ples); and on simplified accounting techniques. It is also important toprovide functional literacy courses to artisans, who often consider illiteracyas an important barrier to their development. Experiences in Upper Volta haveshown that it is also possible to set up an accounting system for illiterateartisans.
4.20 There is no need to set up new centers or training institutes; thescope of the existing ones should be extended to include informal sectortraining programs. This implies that the existing institutions should becomemulti-functional and better used and that they will benefit from the practicalexperience of the artisans. Apprentices and master artisans cannot keepthe same hours as regular students but this would only mean a complementaryuse of the buildings and facilities. The existing facilities can be supple-mented by mobile workshops equipped with modern tools and a technician (aninternational volunteer with a Senegalese counterpart for example) to provideon-the-job training. The people working on the mobile workshops would be in agood position to determine the needs of the artisans and the apprentices forfurther training.
4.21 Training of informal sector participants could also take place inthe modern sector, for example in certain Government workshops. It is pos-sible to teach artisans how to produce or repair certain items and then tosubcontract this work to them at a later stage.
4.22 One way to make existing training institutions more effective wouldbe to help apprentices or students of technical training institutes to setthemselves up in business; this will require a system of credit that does notexist at present. Once they are established continued technical assistancecould be provided through the urban extension service of the mobile workshopssuggested above. A tracer system using SONEPI, SONAGA, SOSEPRA, certain banksand other Government services should also be organized to assist the furtherdevelopment of the artisans who receive training.
E. Assisting the Development of the Urban Informal Sector
4.23 Three elements are required for a program of assistance to theurban informal sector: additional training, technical assistance, andaccess to credit; different individuals will need different doses of each.What is needed is a system which can provide the three elements in the leastcumbersome manner possible.
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4.24 The new Centre de Promotion de l'Artisanat de Production et deService in SONEPI is well suited to start with a new approach to help theartisanal sector, but using a less intensive extension service than SONEPIprovides to its small- and medium-size enterprise clients. The Center willhaive to build up a capability to identify the needs of the artisans for aspecific type of assistatnce and when necessary to provide the teclinicalassistance, capital, and extra training needed.
4.25 The program would do well to start out with a limited numberof activities and graduailly build up the experience necessary to widenits scope. The construction sector provides a good starting point sinceit: is a dynamic sector that employs a number of related skills, and callsfor extension workers with a similar background, which should facilitateani exchange of experiences and the formulation of a consistent approach.
4.26 Flexibility would be enhanced by setting up a small office ina neighborhood of the ci'ty where there are many informal sector activities,the obvious locality in Dakar being Pikine. The person in charge would goouit to identify the needs of the artisans, and technical specialists wouldprovide the necessary technical assistance. If credit is needed, the localol'fice can help the art:isans to make a formal request to the banks respon-sible for providing such credit. According to a decision taken by the ConseilInterministeriel of July 5, 1976, the BNDS is responsible for short-term loansand SOFISEDIT for medium- and long-term loans. The assistance of SONEPIwill probably be necessary to satisfy the administrative requirements. Itwill be necessary for SONEPI to work out an agreement with BNDS and SOFISEDITon how to handle these Loans.
4.27 SONEPI will probably have to guarantee such loans to a large extent.In that case it is important that the procedure between the banks and SONEPIslhould state who is responsible for what. The procedure SONEPI now uses forits small- and medium-scale enterprises is too costly and too time consumingfor the artisans who in any case will not be able to satisfy all the presentcriteria. It should for example not be necessary to have the banks duplicatethe enterprise appraisal. The responsible person identifying the needs of theartisan should come up with a proposal as to the amounts needed for capitaland equipment. If he works according to procedures established between thebanks and SONEPI, the banks would only have to supervise the loans, and notdo the appraisal again.
4.28 The system to get the loans reimbursed should be set up in anefficient way. Instead of having the artisan go to the center of the cityto bring the money to the bank building, he could be invited to pay each weeka certain amount at a branch office in the neighborhood. He could be remindedby the extension worker every once in a while of the amount he still owesand it may be pointed out to him that he can get a loan at a laterstage if he pays back regularly. Another innovation could be shared responsi-bility. Instead of making one person sign for the loan, several people couldbe made jointly responsible, for example colleagues in the same trade or morewealthy family members. In the case of cooperatives this condition wouldautomatically be fulfilled.
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4.29 The informal sector requires a different approach from that usedfor the modern sector small- and medium-scale enterprises. The objective isnot so much to help the artisan make the transition to the modern sectoras it is to help him produce more and consequently make a higher income. Ifonly this type of assistance is provided a large number of artisans can bereached. Starting in this way to build up the experience, the project couldlater be repeated in other neighborhoods and parts of the country.
4.30 In general, there is a need for improvement in the quality of theproducts of the informal sector, so that they can compete with those of themodern sector and with imports. The assistance provided to the sector shouldtake this into account.
- 89 - Appendix APage 1
Appendix A. SENEGAL'S MIGRATION FLOWS AGAINST THEIRHISTORICAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL BACKGROUND 1/
A. The Regions
Groundnut Basin
1. The Groundnut Basin became what it is today by the reactions of thetwo major ethnic groups in the area - the Wolof and the Serer - to the pene-trating Western market economy. This history started in the middle of thenineteenth century when the French introduced groundnut cultivation in thearea between Saint LouiEs and Dakar, the territory of the Wolofs. The colonialauthorities concentrated on this cash crop by organizing it and providinginfrastructure. By doing so, they created the possibility for the Wolofs tomove out of a primitive subsistence economy. With the construction of therailways, groundnut cultivation spread further. Whenever soil began to givelower yields, the Wolof groundnut farmers pushed out into the interior culti-vating increasingly larger surfaces there.
2. Of prime importance to the present socioeconomic structure of thearea has been the creation of Muslim brotherhoods. These brotherhoods arethe outgrowth of the resistance to French cultural influence combined withacceptance of the economic advantages of the cash crop. Most significant ofthem are the Mourides. Out of the 1.4 million Wolofs about 400,000 areMouride adherents; the, remainder mostly belong to other brotherhoods of whichthe Tijani is the largest and of about equal strength in the southern part ofthe Groundnut Basin. The influence of the Mourides is, however, dispropor-tionate to their number. They produce approximately one-quarter of Senegal'stotal groundnut crop. Most of this is grown on small peasant farms, althoughsome is produced on large estates belonging to the Mouride leaders, makingthese men among the richest and most powerful in the country.
3. The Mouride movement started in the second half of the nineteenthcentury with the withdrawal of Cheik Amadou Bambo, the founder of the brother-hood, to the barren interior of Senegal where he created the town of Touba,now the capital of the brotherhood. The great economic impact of the Mouridesis attributable in part to the emphasis which Cheik Amadou Bambo laid on theimportance of work as a means of salvation. The Mouride philosophy is in asense akin to the Protestant ethic of Calvin and Luther with which it isfrequently compared, but it differs in that it places special emphasis on thevirtues of agricultural work. It is this feature of the Mouride ethic whichhe.Lps to explain the group's agricultural colonization eastwards, the trekto the Department of Kafirine in the Sine-Saloum region in the 1930s and1940s, and the more recent rush to the "newlands" in Senegal-Oriental.However, it must not be iJorgotten that the principal reason for these move-ments has been the economic pressure exerted by a rising population combinedwith very poor, dry soil which was quickly exhausted by intensive groundnutproduction.
1/ This appendix is a miodified and somewhat updated version of SectionsII and III of World Bank: Migration and employment in Senegal: Anintroductory report (Washington, D.C., Sept. 24, 1976).
Appendix A-90- Page 2
4. One special feature of Mouridism are the so-called daras, orcooperative work groups of young men. These are units of colonizationheaded by a spiritual leader, the marabout 1/, which have taken the Mouridemovement into hitherto unoccupied areas, or areas used only for grazing byPeul herdsmen on the fringes of the Ferlo Desert. Conditions on these daraswere formerly extremely arduous. They were usually isolated, at considerabledistance from the nearest human habitation or from the nearest source of freshwater. In their quest for unoccupied land, they deliberately sought outplaces where no wells had been dug and where regular habitation was there-fore impossible for those who were not, as they were, "capable of physicalendurance, well organized, determined, and sustained by a vigorous faith". 2/They resembled in this sense the early Kibbutzim of Palestine. The daras wereregarded as an institution in which an adolescent attained full manhood -something akin to an initiation rite, replacing warfare which had long hadthat role in many parts of Africa. Later, wherever railways were to be built,Mourides would install themselves in the areas through which the line was topass so that they might be the first to benefit.
5. Contemporary daras are more prosaic. Instead of producing onlymillet, needed for survival, the daras now also produce groundnuts. Thereare probably some 300-400 daras each consisting typically of about a dozendisciples (Talibes); about 25 of them are very large. Adult followerscontribute also by working a number of days on the marabout's fields. Youngmen volunteer to join but some are so young that it is really their parentswho have volunteered on their behalf. After some years, the men, normally nowin their mid-twenties, are released. As they often come from poor families,their hope is that the reward for years of loyal service will be sufficientmoney to marry and, more importantly, a plot of land. According to tradi-tional and modern law, once the land has been given, the marabout cannot takeit back until the occupant leaves.
6. The provision of small holdings for those who have servedon a dara has posed a problem in areas where there is little uncultivatedland left. Generally such smallholdings have to be carved out of the daraland thus gradually diminishing its size. This acts, of course, as a propellantfor further colonization, but the areas in which this is possible are becomingrapidly filled up. One remaining area is the Senegal-Oriental region, wherethe Wolof are competing for land with the Serer. Later into this century,Mourides as well as other Wolofs started to look to the towns, and today theWolof as a whole constitute the largest single group of town-dwellers just asthey are the biggest group in the population at large. This urban migrationnecessarily took some momentum out of groundnut expansion.
1/ The marabout does not own these farms; rather he exercises all theowner rights on behalf of the group.
2/ D.B. Cruise O'Brien: The Mourides of Senegal: The political andeconomic organization of an Islamic brotherhood. Oxford Studies inAfrican Affairs (Oxford, University Press, 1971) pp. 165-166.
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Page 3
7. The Mourides and the Wolof generally, are said to be poor farmerswho 'mine' the land and Leave it derelict. This assertion should, however, beseen in an historical context. The northern and central groundnut basin formpart of the Sahel where 1-he soil is naturally sandy, permeable, poor in humusandl without water-retainLng power. If one remembers that farmers have beenconstantly urged for the last 60 years or more to increase the production ofgroundnuts at a time when soil protection techniques were not yet in use, itis little wonder that soLls have become exhausted. Fresh land was alwaysavailable and it made sense therefore to move on when, after some years ofintensive groundnut cultLvation, yields began to decline. Now that thesupply of new land has become largely exhausted, this practice is no longerfeasible, and the agricu]!tural habits of the Mourides have changed. Inthe technical field, Mouridism has developed into a progressive force.Traditional beliefs are .less of a hindrance to the introduction of newtechniques of production,, and their hierarchical organization has facilitatedthe propagation of technical information on the use of fertilizers and farmmachinery. Both the French colonial administration and the present Governmenthave actively enlisted the Mourides' support and provided their leaders withloans and technical assisitance for agricultural improvements, as the Govern-mernt does for all farmers.
8. In an economic analysis the marabout leaders could be pictured asentrepreneurs. They inncovate production techniques, represent a strongpressure group in the groundnut sector, and employ paid seasonal workers tocomiplement the work of their followers. They accumulate substantial savingswhich are used partly to provide their followers with some social security butare also reinvested in production ventures. As far as migration is concerned,the brotherhoods have the organization and the pioneer spirit to be extremelyefficient. The Government's cooperative approach towards agriculture can bereconciled with the system of the brotherhoods, but opposing views exist onthe role of the family and public education. The educational system in thebrotherhood is collective and religiously oriented with the benefits ofproductive work by the youngsters accruing to the brotherhood. This type ofeducation gives the youngsters little exposure to the quickly modernizingsociety.
9. The Serer reacted quite differently to the introduction of ground-nuts. This group has integrated groundnut cultivation into an ecologicallybalanced system of mixed farming. Part of the land is kept fallow andmanured during the night by cattle grazing in the forest or in uncultivablesalinated fields during the day. Fruits and leaves of the cod tree - whichreaches its most northern limit in Serer country - are used to feed the cattleat the end of the dry sea:3on. Contrary to the more northern regions, soilfertility is maintained by this system and Serer families can live off lesscultivable land than their Wolof compatriots in the north. Ample opportunityfor fishing in the region contributes to the solid economic base of the SerersocLety.
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10. The Serer were not motivated to migrate. They retained self-sufficiency by keeping one to two-year supplies of millet in stock whichcarried them through the bad years. Efforts of the French administrationto move them to the east in order to increase the groundnut area did notsucceed. Eventually the Wolof moved into the new villages vacated by theSerer who returned to their original villages; sometimes, the village head wasthe only Serer who stayed. The Serer have accepted Western education morereadily than the Wolof. Enrollment rates in Fatick, the most populous Sererdistrict, are the highest in the country. Health services have been rela-tively good and been partly responsible for raising the population growth ratewell above the rural average. The district of Fatick, however, has come underpopulation pressure; all land is now in use and the fallow period has had tobe shortened, often below the time needed to restore fertility. Use ofartificial fertilizer is increasing the carrying capacity of the region, butit is clear that the migration behavior of the Serer is now very much the sameas the Wolof.
11. When the Serer farmer moves from Sine-Saloum to Senegal-Oriental,he does not have the feeling that he leaves the land of his ancestors, sincein the past the empty land, to the east, had always been the natural spacefor expansion. Now-a-days, the Serer has to compete for land with the Wolofin this area. The Serer will be much less inclined to migrate to the Fleuvearea if such occasion might arise because he would be much more a strangerthere than in Senegal-Oriental. 1/ Once settled in the eastern regions, heloses his inclination for the more intensive farming he previously used andadopts the agricultural methods of the Wolof. He usually communicates inWolof although not within the family. He tends to marry within his ethnicgroup and regularly visits his native village. Migration to Dakar is oftentemporary and supported by an informal ethnic organization in town. The maindifference between him and the Wolof is the lack of support by a strongorganization to help him benefit fully from the opportunities that are arisingfrom the opening of the east.
The Senegal River Valley
12. Although rich in potential, the Senegal River Valley became duringthis century the most important departure zone of migrants in the country.The river forms an 825 km frontier with Mauritania and flows through theendless arid Sahel plains where annual rainfall ranges from not more than300 mm in the delta to 700 mm in the eastern Bakel region. Rains are concen-trated in the summer months and are too little and too irregular to supportsedentary farming. However, the annual flood of the Senegal River leavessufficient moisture to permit farmers a second crop which is grown betweenJanuary and April on the so-called oualo lands - the lands that are flooded inthe fall and dry in the spring. In the arid delta region farming is donealmost exclusively on oualo land, but upstream more dry land (diery) iscultivated; in the Bakel region about 60 percent of the total cultivated areais on diery land and 40 percent on oualo land. The presence of water andvegetation in the valley during the dry season allows for relatively highcattle densities in the surrounding plains. All along the river fish provide
1/ It should be noted, however, that the Toucouleurs in the Senegal RiverValley and the Serer speak related languages, quite different from thatof the Wolof.
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an alternative source of protein. The diversity of livelihood that the valleyoffers is demonstrated by Table A-1. Most of these activities depend heavilyon rainfall. The surface cultivated under flood recession varies normallybetween 80 and 120 thousand hectares with extremes of 180 thousand hectares in1950 and 10 thousand hectares in the drought year of 1972. Yields of sorghum,grown on these lands vary from year to year between 250 and 500 kg/ha. Theyield of millet on the diery lands was in the drought year 1972 only 23 kg/haas compared to an average of about 200 kg/ha. Cattle stock fell in that yearby about 10 percent, which is still relatively favorable compared with otherSahel regions.
Table A-1: SOURCES OF INCOME IN THE FLEUVE REGION
Active popu- Population PopulationSource Income lation (main without side with side!
of income by source occupation) activities activities
(M) (% of active population)
Agriculture 50 84.0 63.7 20.3Cattle raising 20 11.3 1.5 9.8Fisheries 15 4.7 2.2 2.5Other 15 -
Total 100 100.0 67.4 32.6
Source: MISOES 1962.
Historical Perspective
13. Since the tenth century, the Senegal River Valley has been acenter of black Muslim civilization. The dominant ethnic groups in thevalley are: the Wolof in the delta (70 percent of the delta population);thte Toucouleur in the lower and middle valley (60 percent of the totalvalley population); the Soninkes in the upper valley, particularly dominatingthe region around Bakel but representing all together not more than one-seventh of the number of Toucouleurs in the Senegalese part of the valley.Thte Peul are scattered over the entire Senegal River Valley region, as well asin the rest of Western Africa. On the Mauritanian side of the river, the sameethnies are represented, but with a Berber majority in the lower valley.
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14. In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the Moors pushed theblack population to the south bank of the river and penetrated deeply into thedelta. A Toucouleur kingdom then consolidated its power on the south bank ofthe valley. Feuds about the scarce oualo lands and particularly the slavetrade kept the black population down. In 1775, from a single campaign in thedelta, 8,000 captives were taken overseas. Yearly trade was also substantialconsidering the population size of a few ten thousands. When the valley cameunder direct control of the French, a large outflow of Toucouleur tribesmenfollowed. With the end of the slave trade and with the colonial governmentconcentrating on the development of the groundnut basin, the valley became anenclave agricultural society characterized by a strong Muslim tradition. Aperiod of black colonization of the partly-deserted north bank followed, untilIndependence, leaving the population on the south bank rather stable.
Modern Migration Flows
15. The penetration of the market economy into Senegal created a newtype of population outflow motivated by the need to earn a money income.This migration happened at quite different periods in the separate regionsof the valley. The Wolof population in the delta started to move southwardat the beginning of this century with the expansion of the groundnut basin.It took until 1940 until the Toucouleur society became affected by large-scale migration and until 1960 before the Soninkes began to move. Theseethnic groups had provided seasonal workers for the groundnut basin, buthad abstained from active participation in the colonization of the "new-lands"(except for one Toucouleur settlement in Upper Casamance around 1936).
16. The Toucouleur migrated mainly to the Cap Vert area after 1940.This migration took on such proportions that, at present, more than halfof the total Senegalese Toucouleur population lives in Dakar. Poorlyeducated, they performed mostly unskilled work as laborers, street vendors,and shoe shiners, but they were also employed as domestic servants andpolice. By 1960, it was estimated that there were some 40,000 Toucouleur inDakar. The direct cause for this migration flow was the start of modernindustrial activity in Dakar during the war and the investment boom in theyears thereafter, creating a host of secondary activities. Inquiries 1/confirm the economic motivation of most Toucouleur migrants. The introductionof Western manufactured products into the Fleuve region must have increasedthe need for money income. The availability of these manufactured productsmay also have destroyed part of the local handicraft industry and renderedlocal employment more difficult. In addition, per capita tax which wasintroduced by the colonial administration must have been an important factorin forcing people out of the subsistence economy. The high percentage ofmigrants (80 percent) who give "search for food" as the motivation for movingmay be explained by the scarcity of oualo land and the very low yields fromthe diery land of which plenty is still available. Once the Toucouleurs hadfound the path to Dakar, the migratory flow got a momentum of its own.Established migrants in Dakar housed and fed the newcomers until they hadfound a permanent source of income. The sponsors of the migrants exercised
1/ "Societe Toucouleur et Migration", Abdoulaye Bara Diop 1965.
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strict control over younger migrants and often took the responsibilityfor their savings. Most migrations started as non-seasonal temporary moves(in 1962, 53 percent of the departures from the valley were for more than sixmonths and 36 percent for more than a year with average intervals of about oneyear 1/) but, over the 25 years this flow went on, the majority of Toucouleurmigrants settled permanently in Dakar.
17. The Soninke went mainly to France. The upsurge of this migration,which began with a mere trickle in the late 1950s, coincided with the Europeanlabor shortage during the 1960s. Now it is estimated that there are some30,000 Senegalese in France mainly originating from the river valley. Thiscase shows even stronger that a migration flow, once it gets going obtains amomentum of its own. Around 1960, a vast majority of the emigrants was over25 years old. They have ]1ow created in Paris a closely knit Soninke societywhich is not only organizLng housing and jobs for the newcomers, but which isin many cases also financLng their journey. The prospective migrants maketheir way first to Dakar, usually at the end of the rainy season, and attemptto get the necessary papers, often through brokers. The total cost of gettinga migrant to France has been estimated in 1975 at about US$400, about a year'sincome for a Senegalese farmer. Migrants leave at the moment at an agebetwieen 17 and 22 years o:Ld, often illiterate and unable to speak French, butthe Soninke society takes care of them. The departure is almost a familydecLsion which demonstrates the economic importance of migration for theentLre Soninke community. In their region, there is almost no other way togenerate cash income. Em-lgration abroad is also spreading to the Toucouleursand other ethnic groups but still 70 percent of all black Africans in Parisare Soninke and only 15 percent Toucouleur (including those from Mali andMauritania).
18. The migration flows strongly affected the departure areas, inparticular in the region between Matam and Bakel located in the upper valley.About 40 percent of the total active masculine population in the SenegaleseSoninke villages is absent., and as much as 70 to 80 percent in the 17 to25-year age group. For the Senegal River Valley as a whole (including thenorth bank) the portion of' the population absent is estimated at 20 to 30percent. I/ Since the family takes care of the fields and seasonal workersare hired during peak times (about two for every three migrants in Soninkeagricultural villages), agricultural production has not fallen much as arestult of migration. Remittances from migrants are extremely high in thecontext of this poor economy. In 1973, remittances from France were esti-mated to average about CFAF 200,000 a person a year, 3/ which represents fourto five times the wage level for seasonal labor in the region. The postoffice in Matam serving about 128,000 people received between June 1974 andJune 1975 CFAF 238 million in postal orders from France and CFAF 362 million 4/from CFAF countries (in.total about $2.5 million).
1/ Source: MISOES 1962.2/ R. Rodts, 1972.3/ L'emigration en pays Soninke, Lericolais, 1974.4/ November 1974-June 1975 extrapolated to a full year, and including
remittances from migrants residing in Senegal.
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Page 8
19. Some observers have arrived at the conclusion that the outflow ofpeople has drained the Fleuve region of economic initiative. This may bepartly true for the Toucouleur region, many of whose migrants have settledpermanently in Dakar. Regarding migration to France, this is not the case,as migrants return after a number of years. Now, they are returning withoutany useful skills, but the French Government is setting up a program toimprove this situation. The most important acquisition of the migrants isperhaps the widening of their horizons, which influences their environmentonce back home. The villages with the highest migration rates now have,almost exclusively, clean multi-room houses made of concrete blocks or adobe,with corrugated iron roofs. Contrary to the habits of traditional villagers,former migrants send their children to school. Former migrants are alsoengaged in many community projects, mostly construction of mosques, but alsoof river boats, village shops, water wells and, in one village they evenfinanced a post office to handle the money stream. Money collections forthese projects are sometimes done among villagers living in Paris. Directproductive investments in agricultural tools are so far rare, and the fewimported tractors are out of service. Much of their savings have beeninvested in cattle usually entrusted to Peul herdsmen on which heavy losseswere incurred during the 1972/73 drought. The tendency is now for investmentin Dakar. It is certain that the more Western consumption patterns of formermigrants siphon part of the money flow, but dissemination of the migrant'swealth to other sections of the local population through hired labor, localpurchases and large dowries is important. The Toucouleur migration to Dakarhas been much less remunerative for the local community than the Soninkemigration to France, but has at least prevented heavy pressure on the scarceoualo lands.
20. It is sometimes argued that the heavy reliance on remittances fromabroad has rendered the local economy vulnerable to sudden changes in immigra-tion policies of foreign nations. For example, the new convention with Francehas changed what was before the equal status of Senegalese and French nationalsin the two countries into a status of full foreigners requiring labor permits.It is not yet known how the new requirements combined with the slowdown of theEuropean economy will affect future migration. Another example is that ofZaire which expelled overnight all West Africans living in that country. Twopoints should, however, be raised. Since migrants from the upper valley moveto different countries - other African countries as well as France - and evenmore go to Dakar, there is reasonable spread of risks. What may be moreimportant, migration has reduced the population's dependence on the region'sirregular rainfall. As many villagers said after the drought: "our sons inFrance have saved us from starvation." Judging on economic aspects alone thebalance seems to come out in favor of migration. However, the poor quality oflife for the migrants in a completely alien civilization is hard to quantify.The poverty in which they live is not necessarily a reflection of discrimina-tively low wages, and high rents but is partly induced by their desire tosave, a characteristic common to all temporary migrants.
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Casamance and Senegal-Oriental
21. Compared with their agricultural potential, both Senegal--Orientalancl Casamance are underpopulated. This may seem a paradox in view of themore reliable rainfall and longer growing season which allows for higheryields and larger agricultural diversity than in the more northern parts ofthe country. There are, however, a number of good reasons for these relativelylow, densities. In Senegal-Oriental and Upper Casamance, riverblincinesspervades the fertile river valleys, the tsetse fly breeds in the forests andmalaria is spread throughout the entire region. In Senegal-Oriental deepgroundwater tables - sometimes 60 meters below ground level - cause scarcityof drinking water and make settlement difficult. Even after completion of therailway to Bamako (Mali) at the end of the nineteenth century which shouldhave made Senegal-Oriental more attractive for settlers because it provided aconnection with the sea, the province remained underdeveloped. ConcerningCasamance, the French colonial administration had little opoportunity and nointerest in developing this isolated region. The region is separated fromthe groundnut basin by the Gambia River Valley which was controlled by theBritish. At Independence, the economy of Casamance was still largely in thesubsistence stage and cash cropping, mainly cotton, had only just started.
22. At the end of the nineteenth century, when the French arrived, theoriginal inhabitants of southern Senegal, the Bainouk, had already been pushedback or absorbed by the Manding (Senegal-Oriental), Balant (Upper Casamance)and Diola (Lower Casamance). Senegal-Oriental also had a large number ofPeul. Contrary to the ethnic groups of the groundnut basin which all hadtheir origin in the Senegal River Valley, these populations come from thesouth with the exception of a pocket of 10,000 Toucouleurs. With the Man-ding's conversion to the !4uslim religion, important social and economicchanges - not uncommon in other parts of West Africa - took place. Theconversion was brought about by Moorish marabouts and not by indigenous Muslimgroups like the Toucouleur in the groundnut basin. For this reason, theMuslim brotherhoods hardly penetrated the south. Under the influence of theMuslim faith, the Manding gave up their nomadic way of life and organizedthemselves into a militant hierarchical society. They invited Peul cattlemeninto an economic alliance, but put heavy armed pressure on the Diolas whoremained attached to animism and an exceptionally non-hierarchical form ofsociety. The French ended the warfare in the region, but the Manding contin-ued their penetration in a peaceful way, assimilating part of the Diolapopulation into the Manding way of life.
23. Conversion to the Muslim faith also had a large economic impact.After the area had been pacified, the Manding warriors moved to groundnut cashcropping and, more recently, to cotton production. The majority of Diolas whowere not touched by the Manding influence (and partly converted to Christian-ity) remained in their subsistence economy based on rice cultivation.
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Page 10
24. Both in Senegal-Oriental and in Casamance, migration movementsare of the utmost importance for further development. As we have seen before,Senegal-Oriental benefits from a net inflow of population, and is in factthe province with the highest population growth in Senegal. This should beattributed to the relative prosperity of the Bakel region based on remittancesfrom Soninke workers in France, the concentration of groundnut farmers alongthe railway to Bamako and the inflow of cattle owners from Guinea whosemigration is largely for political reasons. Inflow in Casamance is mainlyfrom Guinea Bissau by Mandiaks and Mancagues who assimilate quickly oncesettled in Senegal and clear forests on the plateaux for groundnut cultivation.The Mancague sometimes occupy land without permission and are known to havecreated some friction with the existing population.
25. Most damaging to the development of the region is the considerableoutflow of Diolas who leave large surfaces of uncultivated land behind. Thework on the rice fields in Casamance is year-round and since soils are heavy,land preparation and dike building require considerable physical force.Because many of the young have migrated, much of the heavy work can no longerbe done. These men often take jobs as seasonal rural workers in other partsof Senegal. They are known for their skills in the fabrication of palm wine,an activity that has almost disappeared in the Muslim regions of Senegal forreligious reasons. Young female migrants mostly take jobs as maids in thetowns and are not much inclined to return to their native villages (they seemto return only under pressure from young men). The heavy outflow of youngDiolas has been partially for cultural reasons. The contact with the proudMuslim Manding society on one side, and the Western influence on the other hasgiven many young Diolas a negative attitude about their own cultural heritage(some of them prefer to call themselves Manding). However, this argumentshould not be overplayed as Diolas outside their homeland continue to live inclosely knit ethnic communities and keep their own language. Probably themain reason for Diola migration is the influx of Western consumer goods intoan economy that has not yet developed sufficient possibilities for cashearnings, since locally-grown rice is almost exclusively a subsistencecrop. Some projects providing cash income have proven that migration of youngpeople quickly levels off once cash income is locally available.
B. The Cities
Urbanization
26. Since the early part of the century, the rate of urbanization hasincreased substantially. Net urban migration was estimated at 0.5 percentin 1910, about 2.7 percent in 1964, about 3.0 percent in 1970 and probablyeven higher in recent years. The leading urban area has undoubtedly beenDakar with an estimated population increase of about 5.0 percent annuallyduring the 1960s and probably close to 7 percent annually during the series ofdroughts around 1970. By 1976, 32.5 percent of the Senegalese population wasliving in towns of 10,000 inhabitants or more. This is high compared with the24 percent for the African continent as a whole (see Table A-2), though it isstill well below the proportion for richer countries.
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Table A-2: COMPARISON OF PROPORTION OF URBAN POPULATION, 1975
Country or Region Percentage
Senegal 32.5 /1
Africa 24Europe 67U.S.S.R. 60Northern America 77Japan 75South Asia 23East Asia 31Latin America 61
/L1 1976 census.
Source: UN Selected World Demographic Indicators 1950-2000. May 1975.
27. Senegal's urban areas consist of at least 19 towns with 10,000inhabitants or more (see Table A-3) and some 20 other towns with populationsbetween 2,000 and 10,000. Because of its large size, Dakar dominates theoverall pace of urbanization in Senegal. The next three largest urbancenters (Thies, Kaolack and Saint Louis) all grow much more slowly thanDakar. Although growth rates of secondary towns vary widely and in somecases exceed that of Dakar, the average between 1960/61 and April 1976 wasonly about 4.6 percent for the 18 other cities with 10,000 inhabitants ormcre.
28. Some indicaticn of the growth of these major towns in recentyears is given by the extent of their shanty-town populations. It: is esti-mated that the population of Dakar living in bidonvilles increased by 50percent during the period 1965-72 to a level of 300,000 to 400,000 people,while in the latter year there were about 35,000 bidonville inhabitants inThies, Saint Louis and Kaolack and 25,000 in Ziguinchor, roughly between athird and a half of the indigenous populations.
Datkar
251. The rapid increase of population in greater Dakar - or Cap Vert- since 1960 can be attributed to a number of factors. Government policies,particularly on pricing of agricultural products by State monopsonists, werea major cause. The prolonged drought also probably brought in people whowould not otherwise have emigrated. Progress in health and education facili-ti.es increased Dakar's attractiveness to those of working age, while theexisting concentration of Government aixd industry, both modern and informal,erLsured that the momentum of migration was maintained.
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Table A-3: URBAN CENTERS OF MORE THAN 10,000 INHABITANTS IN 1976
AnnualPopulation ('000) growth rate,
1960/61-City Province 1960/61 April April 1976
1976 (percent)
Provincial Capitals 580.2 1269.8 5.4Dakar Cap Vert 318.0 798.8 6.3Thies Thies 69.1 117.3 3.5Kaolack Sine-Saloum 69.6 106.9 2.8Saint Louis Fleuve 48.8 88.4 3.9Ziguinchor Casamance 29.8 72.7 5.8Diourbel Diourbel 28.6 50.6 3.7Louga Louga 16.3 35.1 5.0
Departmental Capitals /1 73.8 178.7 5.8M'bour Thies 16.0 37.7 5.6Tambacounda Senegal-Oriental 10.5 25.1 5.7M'backe Diourbel 7.4 25.0 8.1Kolda Casamance 6.0 19.3 7.8Tivaouane Thies 7.9 17.4 5.2Fatick Sine-Saloum 7.2 12.5 3.6Kaffrine Sine-Saloum 2.3 11.2 10.6Dagana Fleuve 4.5 10.5 5.5Bambey Diourbel 6.0 10.0 3.3Matam Fleuve 6.0 10.0 3.3
Other /1 11.0 23.5 /2 (6.5) /3Makhe Thies 5.6 11.8 /2 (6.4) /3Bignona Casamance 5.4 11.7 /2 (6.6) /3
TOTAL 665.0 1472.0 5.4
/1 With populations over 10,000/2 1972/73. Figures for 1976 not yet available./3 1960/61 to 1972/73.
Sources: 1960/61, Dakar: Interpolated and adjusted from NEDECO: Plan directeurDakar et ses environs, Approvisionnement en eau et assainissement,Tome I: Rapport de synthese (La Haye, Dec. 1973), p. III-2.
1960/61, other cities: Direction de l'amenagement du Territoire.
1976: Bureau National du Recensement: Resultats provisoires, durecensement g6n6ral de la population d'avril 1976 (Dakar, July 22, 1976)p. 1, tableau 1 (population de droit).
- 101 - Appendix APage 13
30. Some evidence of the rate of growth of Dakar is given by thefigures for transients Ln the 1970/71 sample survey. If one takes the tran-sLent population in Cap Vert who were born outside the region in any twosuccessive rounds of the survey, and compares this with the total populationin Cap Vert, it can be calculated that the annual gross rate of in-migrationwas 9 to 10 percent. A similar exercise for the transient population of otherregions who originated In Cap Vert implies a gross outflow of 4-5 percent.Thus, the net rate of in-migration would lie in the range of 4-6 percent 1/.IE we add the natural rate of growth of the Cap Vert population (say 2.6percent), the total annual growth of Cap Vert would be about 6-8 percent.
31. A complicating aspect of the picture is that the inhabitants ofDakar include an unknown proportion of "floating population", incorporatingan element of seasonal workers as well as transients. The first estimate ofthis floating population was made in 1955. It suggested that 7.8 percent ofDakar's population were "floaters" 2/. This was confirmed by the 1970/71survey which found 40 to 80 thousand transients, depending on the season. Itis known that many inhabitants leave Dakar during the wet season but this wasnot confirmed by the number of absent residents. One explanation of theseinconclusive results is that the first and third rounds of the survey coveredthe period 1hay to November, a substantially longer period than the wetseason, which normally runs from July to September. There is a seasonalmovement away from Daka:r, probably to the groundnut basin to assist at thevery short peak planting time.
32. With an annuaL population increase of over 6 percent of which abouthalf were migrants of working age, and an increase in modern sector employmentoE only about 3 percent it is obvious that the informal sector of Dakar musthave provided a livelihood for the bulk of the additional population. ThereiS some indirect evidence that, despite this massive absorption of new people,revenues in the informal sector have not fallen. With real purchasing poweroE minimum wages in the modern sector slowly increasing, there has been norush to join the ranks of the formally employed, which is usually visible aslong lines of job-seekers outside factory gates or ministries. There wouldappear to be little, if any, financial gain by moving from the informal to themodern sector, at least in the short to medium term. Artisans consider theiractivity very much as permanent occupations and would not consider modernsector employment. On the contrary, they develop gradually their own special-ities to reinforce their business: even apparently similar workshops turnout to have differentiated their products to quite an extent.
1/ If comparable successive rounds of the sample survey were taken, therate would be exactly five percent.
2/ See Haut Commissariat de la Republique en Afrique Occidentale Francaise,Recensement demographique de Dakar, 1955.
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Page 14
33. A study carried out by Chris Gerry for the ILO 1/ in 1974 foundthat the informal sector was, to a very large extent, self-generating. Around80 percent of the artisans sold their production almost exclusively to indi-viduals from their own social strata and from the African middle class,without commercial mediation. Of 285 "petty producers" interviewed, only 6percent had received a formal technical education, while an aduitional 24percent had been trained on the job, occasionally as employees in Governmentworkshops, the army and foreign enterprises. The remaining 70 percent wereapprentices either to artisans, small producers or small, self-employedsubcontractors. The study also found that there was a substantial shift fromwage-employment to self-employment during the period 1969-72 and that therehas been no evidence of a reverse shift (or desire for such) since.
34. Working with some of the petty producers are 'casual workers', ofwhich the Gerry survey estimated that 37 percent were recent migrants toCap Vert (within the past 5 years), 38 percent were established migrants (morethan 5 years) and 25 percent were born in Cap Vert. Most had a number ofoccupations each year, worked on the average only 19 days each month, butearned only about 12 percent less a day than the lowest grade worker in themodern sector. However, it was noted that a large proportion of the sample(over 70 percent) also had income from other sources or had their earningssupplemented by other family members. It is not necessarily true - as theGerry study concluded - that such apprentices and employees are destined for alife of constant reductions in their real level of living because they have toface heavy competition. There is no evidence of such a tendency in the past,and the relatively low percentage of people working in the informal sector ofDakar seems to allow for substantial further growth in this kind of employ-ment.
35. Apparently, monetary incentives of Government employment are nothigh. From figures for 1974, it appears that 50 percent of all Governmentemployees received wages below the minimum standard wage for workers oremployees of the seventh grade, which implies that these persons were re-ceiving wages at approximately the same level as lower grade workers. Forpermanent employees, of course, there are a few non-monetary or delayedbenefits, but as in other countries, these are less valuable during the earlypart of working life. An interesting aspect is that the Government and mostemployers in the modern sector appear to be very strict on "moon-lighting".Whereas in many developing countries a position in the modern sector, particu-larly the civil or military service, is looked upon as the anchor job for aseries of extra-curricula activities, this is not true in Senegal. MIanyGovernment workers, especially at lower levels, stressed that it was almostimpossible for them to obtain an outside job without being caught, and iffound out they would lose their Government job.
1/ Chris Gerry, Petty Producers and the Urban Economy: A Case Study ofDakar, World Employment Program Research Working Paper WEP 2-19/WP 8(Geneva, ILO, 1974).
- 103 -Appendix APage 15
36. Almost all Cap Vert residents keep in contact with their homevLllage, though in vary:Lng degrees. In many cases, the children of perma-nently urbanized families have never gone to the traditional homeland, butthey get to know the rural relatives who come to visit for one reason oranother, such as to attend school. There is a curious mixture of traditionaland modern values in the family system. Traditional kinship relationsoiten consist of a balanced series of reciprocal rights and obligations in asubsistence environment. In modern Senegalese society, the reciprocity isless obvious but the obligations remain. A man who lives in an urban centermty be obliged to support family who migrate to that area from his "surplusover subsistence". Repayment may only occur when the new immigrants earntheir own surplus. Migrants without relatives in Cap Vert or other citiestend to cluster together for mutual protection in groups based on ethnic,caste or village origin. By means of low dues, this collective system pro-tects migrants who fall ill or lose their job. The acceptance of this systemby so many Senegalese not only provides a cushion for illiterate, unpreparedrural migrants, but also encourages a desire among urban residents to obtaininformation about income-earning opportunities for their new dependents. Thequicker the new migrants earn a reasonable income, the quicker the obliga-tions will be repaid in cash or kind.
3;. While the Senegalese regard differences in income as a majorfactor in any decision to migrate temporarily or permanently to Cap Vert orother towns, there are clearly a number of non-income advantages of moving toDakar. These advantages are particularly important in reducing back-flows tothe rural areas. One is the quality of housing. While bidonville struc-tures may appear to richer classes as blots on the landscape, the shanties ofthe Medina and Pikine are a considerable improvement over the usual villagehut in the eyes of the new migrants. Moreover, the bidonville structures canbe extended or strengthened if the inhabitants decide to stay permanently;they can be moved or sold in sections if the migrants decide to go back totheir original home. An.other non-income advantage is the access to infra-structure. Almost all bidonville residents interviewed by the mission spokeparticularly of the ready access to water stand-pipes. MIany had accesstc, electricity. But even those houses without such advantages could view theprospect of obtaining them (by moving up in the social strata through earninghigher incomes or because of Government decisions) with optimism. Tothese benefits, one must also add reasonable access to schools and hospitalsas well as the opportunity to learn new skills through the pervasive appren-ticeship system by part- or full-time wage employment or simply by imitation.
Saint Louis
38. A second city, which has about 88,000 inhabitants and great poten-tial for further absorption of immigrants, is Saint Louis. The administrativecapital of the country until the 1950s, the historic city is now decaying butis desperately trying to establish a new equilibrium. In view of ongoingefforts to develop the Senegal River Basin, the economic base of the town willwiden in the coming decades. This justifies a special effort of the Govern-ment to preserve Saint Louis' vitality.
39. The city can be divided into three parts: the "Langue Barbari", along sliver of land on which is based the major fishing fleet, the markets,
- 104 -
Appendix APage 16
and various entertainment and tourist facilities; the "Ile", a historic islandwith narrow streets and beautiful but decaying old buildings where theadministrative offices and most major shops are; and the mainland, which iswhere the citv's expansion is taking place, through both modern and bidonvilleconstruction. On the Langue Barbari, sensible steps are already being takento provide assistance to the fishermen and their wives by the provision ofrefrigerated storage facilities, hygienic market stalls, protective dikes and
by further expansion of the distribution and sale of outboard motors for thefishermen's boats. Tourism facilities - especially a new tourist village atthe southern end of the Langue - also deserve support. The beaches areexcellent and tourism of this type would complement the colorful fisheriesindustry. On the Ile, the major task is renovation, both as a further comple-ment to tourism, but also for reasons of hygiene and historical preservation.Three out of every five houses have no sanitation facilities, but unfor-
tunately plans for improvement face financial difficulties. A further essen-tial program, designed to restore both public and private buildings, also
appears to be short of funds. The main rationale for the expansion of theSaint Louis mainland is that the city will undoubtedly serve as an entrepotand service center for the expected large and rapid development of landson the Senegalese side of the Senegal River. Already, forestry, fishing andlarge-scale agriculture and horticulture are being developed. A nucleus ofindustries exist, including a large sugar refinery, tomato canning plant, andsilos while, with foreign aid, new schools and a very large university arebeing established.
40. The informal sector in Saint Louis is much less varied and extensivethan in Dakar. It is concentrated on activities associated with fishing,although it comprises the usual West African range of services. Nevertheless,as the income of the city increases, the informal sector will provide a veryuseful absorptive shield for migrants, especially those coming in fromthe Fleuve area.
Ziguinchor
41. Another city with considerable absorptive capacity is Ziguinchor,the capital of the Casamance region, with a population of about 70,000 people.At present, Ziguinchor has a population growth rate of 4-5 percent annually -not as high as Kolda, further upstream (9-10 percent) - though Ziguinchoris clearly the regional economic center and will probably be the ultimaterecipient of Casamance's migrants. Moreover, Ziguinchor has definite touristpotential. Hotel beds are few at present but the new Diola hotel, being builtin pure Diola style but with all the modern amenities, will undoubtedlyprovide one of the most attractive settings for visitors to Africa. The city
appears to have no problem of either land availability or social infrastruc-ture. What it lacks most of all at present is simply a few good roads and,particularly, drainage facilities. The area is well stocked with various
types of schools, hospitals and dispensaries; the city water is treated,filtered and piped, and all quarters possess electricity. While money incomesin Ziguinchor are lower than in more northern Senegalese towns, the nutritious
- 105 - Appendix APage 17
local products and the lack of overcrowding raise the real standard of living;even in the bidonville section each house has a plot of land around it whererice, millet, sorghum or groundnuts are cultivated.
42. A particularly impressive aspect of Ziguinchor is the excellentmanner in which much of its informal sector has been organized. In the large,walled market place, for example, the municipality has provided adequate spaceand facilities for workshops and stalls to be located in a rational andmutually beneficial pattern. In the handicraft market nearby, the workers arecourteous with tourists, and the market's own administration fixes and pub-lishes prices which are neither outrageously high or uneconomically low. Someof the bidonville areas of Ziguinchor are being "regularized". However,this process does not take the form it does in Dakar of moving the populationto a newly prepared area. It involves providing infrastructural improvementsfor the existing area. For example, in Tilene, one of the older quarters, theland is very low and the houses have to be constructed on raised platforms.By regrading and installing roads and drainage, life in Tilene is being mademuch more pleasant. Similarly, in the quarters of Peyrissac and Niefouleneimprovements in roads are being made.
Kaolack
43. Kaolack, Senegal's third largest city of 107,000 people, is sprawl-ing and run-down and has long lost its role as an economic center of thesouthern part of the groundnut basin. Much of its former industry has beenclosed down, leaving only the peanut refinery and a salt plant. The port isusually deserted and is rapidly silting up. Potential for tourism is almostnon-existent. Since the Dakar-Rufisque-Thies industrial concentration isjust three hours away by road, possibilities to revive industry is small.Kaolack's chances lie in the intensification of agriculture in that region,which will require a host of rural services, and in the increases in groundnutand cotton production in southeast Senegal, which will allow for more indus-trial processing in Kaolack.
44. Apart from the very center of the city, the area around the Govern-ment offices, and a small quarter containing middle-class housing, almost thewhole city is a bidonville. Sections such as Kasna, Kassavi, Sare Nougory andMedina are, moreover, extremely heavily populated. Informal sector activitiesdo not appear to take place within the bidonvilles to the extent that they doin Dakar, and the city's mayor informed the mission that many of the youngmen, after arriving in Kaolack, quickly move on temporarily or permanently toDakar. Indeed, Kaolack's bus and truck station is probably one of the busiestin the country. The city can be regarded, therefore, as a relatively tem-porary staging post in the movement of people out of the groundnut: basin andinto the Cap Vert region. The low population growth rate of about: 3 percent ayear confirms this view. If present efforts to intensify agriculture in theregion prove effective in reducing the push for rural-urban migration,population growth may level off completely.
- 106 -
THE ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF SENEGAL
Volume IV. Human Resources
Statistical Annex
List of Tables
No. Page
1. Workers and annual wages and salaries in the modernsector, by nationality, 1974:Manufacturing 108
2. Workers and annual wages and salaries in the modernsector, by nationality, 1974:Construction (building and public works) 109
3. Workers and annual wages and salaries in the modernsector, by nationality, 1974:Commerce 110
4. Workers and annual wage and salaries in the modernsector, by nationality, 1974:Services 111
5. Seasonal workers and wage payments in modernsector by quarter, 1974 112
6. Employment and value added in industry (including miningand facilities), selected years, 1959-1975 113
7. Establishments, workers and average earnings in modernsector enterprises (private and semi-private), Senegaland Cap Vert, 1975 114
8. Establishments and workers in modern sector enterprises(private and semi-private) by size of establishment,Senegal and Cap Vert, 1975 115
9. Number of establishments by size of establishment(employees per establishment), by branch of activity andby province, 1974 116
10. Number of establishments by branch of activity andprovince, 1974 117
11. Estimated entrants to modern private sector work forceduring 5-year period 1977-1981 118
12. SCET planning factors for Senegal River Valleydevelopment 119
- 107 -
Statistical Annex
List of Tables, (cont'd.)
No. Page
13. Proposed industrial projects: investment cost and jobsto be created 120
1.4. Statutory minimum wages (SMIG), 1960-1975 121
15. Salary scale according to the collective contract forthe mechanical industry 122
1.6. Estimate of entrants into work force (coming from educationalsystem) with a level of education at least up to theBEPC, 1974/75 123
17. Number of workshops by craft among artistic artisans,1972 124
18. Number of workshops by craft among artisans inproduction, 1972 125
19. Number of workshops by craft among artisansin services, 1972 126
- 108 - Statistical Annex
Table 1: WORKERS AND ANNUAL WAGES AND SALARIES IN THEMODERN SECTOR, BY NATIONALITY, 1974
Manufacturing
Annual wages andCategory and Workers (Dec. 1974) salaries (1974)Skill Level /1 No. % Aggregate Per
CFAF workermillion % (CFAF '000)
1. Senegalese and other Africans:
Employers, managers 188 0.71 526.9 4.87 2,802.6Technicians 326 1.23 587.1 5.43 1,800.9Foremen 1,194 4.50 1,310.6 12.11 1,097.6Skilled workers 7,195 27.15 3,210.7 29.68 446.2Semi-skilled workers 10,608 40.03 3,632.4 33.57 342.4Unskilled workers, 6,992 26.38 1,551.8 14.34 221.9
apprentices
Total 26,503 100.00 10,819.5 100.00 408.2
2. Non-Africans:
Employers, managers 448 35.39 2,376.7 52.79 5,305.1Technicians 407 32.15 1,186.5 26.35 2,915.2Foremen 292 23.06 786.4 17.46 2,693.2Skilled workers 93 7.34 113.9 2.53 1,224.7Semi-skilled workers 22 1.74 39.1 0.87 1,777.3Unskilled workers, 4 0.32 0.2 -- 50.0
apprentices
Total 1,266 100.00 4,502.8 100.00 3,556.7
3. All workers:
Employers, managers 636 2.29 2,903.6 18.95 4,565.4Technicians 733 2.64 1,773.6 11.58 2,419.6Foremen 1,486 5.35 2,097.0 13.68 1,411.2Skilled workers 7,288 26.25 3,324.6 21.70 456.2Semi-skilled workers 10,630 38.28 3,671.5 23.96 345.4Unskilled workers, 6,996 25.19 1,552.0 10.13 221.8
apprentices
Total 27,769 100.00 15,322.3 100.00 551.8
/1 Skill levels: English translation of French categories: see Text Table 4.
Source: SONED: Les activites du secteur economiaue moderne au Senegal en 1974d'apres les resultats du recensement general des entreprises,Tome I: Mfthodologie Analyse macrosectorielle (Dakar, June 1976), p. 88.
Statistical Annex- 109 -
Table 2: WORKERS AND ANNUAL WAGES AND SALARIES IN THEMODERN SECTOR, BY NATIONALITY, 1974
Construction (building and public works)
Annual wages andCategory and Workers (Dec. 1974) salaries (1974)Slcill Level /1 No. % Aggregate Per
CFAF workermillion % (CFAF '000)
1. Senegalese and othe:r Africans:
Employers, managers 32 0.50 57.2 2.87 1,787.5Technicians 19 0.30 16.9 0.85 889.5Foremen 227 3.53 186.1 9.32 819.5Skilled workers 1,401 21.78 506.5 25.37 361.5Semi-skilled workers 1,917 29.80 623.9 31.24 325.4Unskilled workers, 2,836 44.09 606.1 30.35 213.7
apprentices
Total 6,432 100.00 1,996.7 100.00 310.4
2. Non-Africans:
Employers, managers 90 44.56 437.7 58.80 4,863.3Technicians 24 11.88 98.0 13.16 4,083.3Foremen 67 33.17 185.7 24.95 2,771.6Skilled workers 20 9.90 22.7 3.05 1,135.0Semi-skilled workers 1 0.49 0.3 0.04 300.0Unskilled workers, -- -- -- -- --
apprentices
Total 202 100.00 744.4 100.00 3,685.1
3. All workers:
Employers, managers 122 1.84 495.9 18.09 4,064.8Technicians 43 0.65 114.9 4.19 2,672.1Foremen 294 4.43 371.8 13.56 1,264.6Skilled-workers 1,421 21.42 529.2 19.30 372.4Semi-skilled workers 1,918 28.91 624.2 22.77 325.4Unskilled workers, 2,836 42.75 606.1 22.11 213.7
apprentices
Total 6,634 100.00 2,741.1 100.02 413.2
/1 Skill levels: English translation of French categories: see Text Table 4.
Source: SONED: Les activites du secteur tconomique moderne au Stn6gal en 1974d'apres les resu.ltats dii recensement general des entreprises,Tome I: M6thbod61logie Analyve macrosectorielle (Dakar, June 1976), p. 89.
Statistical Annex- 110 -
Table 3: WORKERS AND ANNUAL WAGES AND SALARIES IN THEMODERN SECTOR, BY NATIONALITY, 1974
Commerce
Annual wages andCategory and Workers (Dec. 1974) salaries (1974)Skill Level /1 No. % Aggregate Per
CFAF workermillion X (CFAF '000)
1. Senegalese and other Africans:
Employers, managers 246 2.45 479.0 8.77 1,947.2Technicians 355 3.54 551.9 10.10 1,554.6Foremen 946 9.44 1,035.3 18.95 1,094.4Skilled workers 2,952 29.44 1,596.6 29.23 540.8Semi-skilled workers 3,467 34.57 1,246.8 22.83+ 359.6Unskilled workers, 2,062 20.56 553.0 10.12 268.2
apprentices
Total 10,028 100.00 5,462.6 100.00 544.7
2. Non-Africans:
Employers, managers 377 42.99 1,606.4 56.40 4,261.0Technicians 158 18.02 638.6 22.42 4,041.8Foremen 162 18.47 433.0 15.20 2,672.8Skilled workers 129 14.71 137.2 4.82 1,063.6Semi-skilled workers 43 4.90 30.8 1.08 716.3Unskilled workers, 8 0.91 2.3 0.08 287.5
apprentices
Total 877 100.00 2,848.3 100.00 3,247.8
3. All workers:
Employers, managers 623 5.72 2,085.4 25.09 3,347.4Technicians 513 4.70 1,190.5 14.33 2,320.7Foremen 1,108 10.16 1,468.3 17.67 .1,325.2.Skilled workers 3,081 28.25 1,733.8 20.86. 562.7Semi-skilled workers 3,510 32.19 1,277.6 15.37 364.0Unskilled workers, 2,070 18.98 555.3 6.68 268.3
apprentices
Total 10,905 100.00 8,310.9 100.00 762.1
L Skill levels: English translation of French categories: see Text Table 4.
Source: SONED: Les activitgs du secteur economigue moderne au Seneal en 1974d'apres les resultats du recensement general des entreprises,Tome I: Methodologie.Analyse macrosectorie-ll-e -(Dakar, June 1976), p. 90.
- 111 - Statistical Annex
Table 4: WORKERS AND ANNUAL WAGES AND SALARIES IN THEMODERN SECTOR, BY NATIONALITY, 1974
Services
Annual wages andCategory and Workers (Dec. 1974) saLaries (1974)Skill Level LI No. % Aggregate Per
CFAF workermillion 7% (CFAF '000)
1. Senegalese and other Africans:
Employers, managers 173 1.06 429.0 5.28 2,479.8Technicians 349 2.15 425.0 5.24 1,217.8Foremen 852 5.25 670.0 8.25 786.4Skilled workers 6,738 41.51 3,636.9 44.81 539.8Semi-skilled workers 5,349 32.96 2,192.6 27.02 409.9Unskilled workers, 2,770 17.07 762.6 9.40 275.3
apprentices
Total 16,231 100.00 8,116.1 100.00 500.0
2. Non-Africans:
Employers, managers 325 48.87 1,305.8 61.72 4,017.8Technicians 129 19.40 458.3 21.66 3,552.7Foremen 105 15.79 227.5 10.75 2,166.7Skilled workers 62 9.32 89.6 4.24 1,445.2Semi-skilled workers 40 6.02 30.9 1.46 772.5Unskilled workers, 4 0.60 3.6 0.17 900.0
apprentices
Total 665 100.00 2,115.7 100.00 3,181.5
3. All workers:
Employers, managers 498 2.95 1,734.8 16.96 3,483.5Technicians 478 2.83 883.3 8.63 1,847.9Foremen 957 5.66 897.6 8.77 937.8Skilled workers 6,800 40.25 3,726.5 36.42 548.0Semi-skilled workers 5,389 31.89 2,223.5 21.73 412.6Unskilled workers, 2,774 16.42 766.2 7.49 276.2
apprentices
Total 16,896 100.00 10,231.8 100.00 605.6
I1 Skill levels: Eng:lish translation of French categories: see Text Table 4.
Source: SONED: Les ac:tivites du secteur economigue moderne au Sdn6gal en 1974d'apres les r6sultats du recensement general des entreprises,
.Tome I: Methodologie Analyse macrosectorielle (Dakar, June 1976), p. 91.
- 112 - Statistical Annex
Table 5: SEASONAL WORKERS AND WAGE PAYMENTS INMODERN SECTOR BY QUARTER, 1974 /1
Category and I II III IV Year Quarterlymacro-sector average
Seasonal Workers:
Industry 18,929 18,461 16,567 17,305 71,262 17,816Construction 1,672 1,558 1,682 1,838 6,750 1,686Commerce 6,800 6,793 6,710 6,227 26,530 6,633Services 9,015 10,401 10,444 8,992 38,852 9,713
Total 36,416 37,213 35,403 34,362 143,394 35,848
Wage Payments: (CFAF '000)
Industry 236.8 253.1 247.7 234.4 972.0 243.0Construction 44.4 43.9 39.2 46.5 174.0 43.5Conmerce 51.3 36.9 41.8 46.9 176.9 44.2Services 187.2 226.7 218.4 212.1 844.4 211.1
Total 519.7 560.6 547.1 539.9 2,167.3 541.8
/1 According to SONED survey.
Source: SONED: Les activitEs du secteur economique moderne au Senegal en 1974d'apres les resultats du recensement gfn6ral des entreprises, Tome I:M4thodologie. Analyse macrosectorielle (Dakar, June 1976), pp. 88-91.
- 113 - Statistical Annex
Table 6: EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE ADDED IN INDUSTRY (INCLUDING15INING AND UTILITIES), SELECTED YEARS 1959-1975
Valueaddedper Index (1960 = 100)
Emp'Loyment Value worker Value Value(permanent added ('000 added addedempHoyees) (bill. 1971 Employ- in per
1971 CFAF) ment constant workerCFAF) (2).(1) prices
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (()
Absolute amounts and index:1959 15.288 95.551960 (16,000) 20.6 1288 100.00 100.00 10(.001961 16 186 101.161962 16,009 100.06196319641965 (17.000) 28'.2 1658 106.25 136.89 128.7319661967 18,300 1141381968 16.500 103.121969 20,072 125.451970 (20.500) 35.7 1741 128.12 173.30 135.171971197219731974 27,769 41.6 1498 173.56 201.94 116.301975 25.110 44.3 1765 156.94 215.05 137.03
Average annual growth rates (percent):1960-1965 [.2 6.5 5.21965-1970 3.8 4.8 1.01970-1975 4,.1 4.4 0.3
1960-1975 3.0 5.2 2.1
Sources: 1959: CINAM/SERESA: Rapport general sur les perspectives de developpementdu S'negal, lere partie (Dakar, July 1960, 2e edition January 1961)p. '!1-7 (13). Republique du Senegal, Assemblee Nationale: Planquadfriennal de developpement 1961-1964 (Dakar, 8 March 1961),p. :'07, used a higher figure of 17,720.
1960: Interpolated1961: ILO: Rapport au Gouvernement de la Republique du Senegal sur
l'e:aboration d'un programme de main d'oeuvre (by Leon Reneau)(Geneve 1962), p. 9.
1962: Repiublique du Senegal: Deuxieme plan quadriennal de developpement1965-1968, vol. II: Plan (Dakar, 1 July 1965), p. 302.
1967: Mini'stere du Plan et de l'Industrie: Troisieme plan quadriennalde developpement economigue et social 1969-1973 (Dakar, 1 July 1969),p. '!21. The document then uses the same figure for 1969 as thebase of the Third Plan projections of industrial employment (p. 131).
1968, 1969: H.D. Nelson et al: Area handbook for Senegal (Washington, D.C.,US Government Printing Office, 1974), p. 300, quoting Ediafric-Service: Memento de Il'conomie africaine (Paris, 1972).
1970: Interpolated1971: SONED: Les activites du secteur economique moderne au Seneaal en
1974 d'apres les rgsultats du recensement gendral des entreprises,Tome I: Methodologie. Analyse macrosectorielle (Dakar, June 1976),p. 138.
1975: Min:'stere du Plan, Direction de la Planification, Division desRess;ources Humaines: L'emploi et les salaires dans les secteursprive et semi-prive au mois de decembre 1975 (Dakar, October 1975),tab:!eau IV.
Value added: Mission estimates
Table 7: ESTABLISHMENTS, WORKERS AND AVERAGE EARNINGS IN MODERN SECTOR ENTERPRISES
(PRIVATE AND SEMI-PRIVATE), SENEGAL AND CAP VERT, 1975
Establishments Workers/i Average annual earninCsWorkersL~~ per worker /1 ('000 CFAF)
Cap-Varaer
Branch of Senegal Cap- Cap-Vert Senega Cap- Cap-Vert Senegal
Senegal Senegal =100
Agriculture, fishing 59 46 78.0 7,702 4,150 53.9 433 422 97.4
Mining 18 13 72.2 1,416 933 65.9 778 718 92.3
Manufacturing 159 143 89.9 20,481 18,205 88.9 465 458 98.5
Electricity, gaa, water 30 14 46.7 3,213 2.047 63.7 1,031 897 87.0
Construction 119 113 95.0 9,500 8,924 93.9 393 398 101.3
Commerce, hotels, -
restaurants 971 791 81.5 17,035 15,904 93.4 638 65.7 167.2
Transport, communication 162 104 64.2 6,718 6,416 95.5 891 916 102.8
Banking, insurance 71 67 94.4 2,464 2,347 95.2 1,212 1,167 9b.3
Other services 329 296 90.0 9,105 8,338 91.6 636 648 101.9
Unepecified 1 - - 4 - - xx xx xx E
rtl
Total 1,919 1,587 82.7 77,638 67,264 86.6 601 604 100.5 H
rt
L Including expatriates and other non-Africans . .
Source s Ministere du Plan et de la Coopdration, Direction de la Planification, Division des Ressources
Humaines : L'emploi et lea salaires dans lea aecteurs privd et semi-priv6 au mois de d6cembre
1975 (Dakar, October 1976), tables I-A, I-C, II-A, II-B, V-B. Based on tax declarationstabulated by Direction des Impots, Ministere dee Finances et des Affaires doonomiques.
Table 8: ESTABLISHMENTS AND WORKERS IN MODERN SECTOR ENTERPRISES (PRIVATE ANDSEMI-PRIVATE) BY SIZE OF ESTABLISHMENT, SENEGAL AND CAP VERT, 1975
_Etablishments Workers-_ p-cVert ~ -Cap-Veri.
Sise Of establichment Cap other as 7 of Cap- Other as 'A ol0r.4 of workcr A-^egal Vert 'nrevi vnan Sanecal Senegal Vert provincea Senegal
A. Absolute numbersa
less than 5 752 572 180 76.1 1,605 1,256 349 78.25 - 9 368 308 60 83.7 2,425 2,042 383 84.210 - 19 267 237 30 88.8 3,579 3,200 379 89.420 - 49 249 225 24 90.4 7,738 7,015 723 g0b50 - 99 130 112 18 86.2 9,094 7,892 1,202 86.8100 - 499 124 107 17 86.3 26,044 -22,056 3,988 84.l500 and over 29 26 3 89.6 27,153 23,803 3,350 87.7
Total 1,919 1,587 332 82.7 77,638 67,264 10,374 86.6
B. Pergents
Less than 5 39.2. 36.1 54.2 2.1 1.9 3.45 -9 19.2 19.4 18.1 3.1 3.0 3.710 - 19 13.9 14.9 9.1 4.6 4.8 3.620 - 49 13.0 14.2 7.2 10.0 10.4 7.050 _ 99 6.8 7.1 5.4 11.7 11.7 11.6100 - 499 6.4 6.7 5.1 33.5 32.8 38.4500 and over 1.5 1.6 0.9 35.0 35.4 32.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source a Miniatere du Plan et de la Coopdration, Direction de la Planification, Division desRessources Humainea : L'emploi et les salaires dans lea secteurg privd et semi-privdau mois de decembre 1975 (Dakar, October 1976), tables I-B, lI-A, II-B, Il-C.
x5
Table 9: NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS BY SIZE OF ESTABLISHMENT (EMPLOYEES PERESTABLISHMENT), BY BRANCH OF ACTIVITY AND BY PROVINCE, 1974
Employees per Establishment
100- 50- 30- 20- 10- 5- 3- Less , aCategory 500+ 499 99 49 29 19 9 4 than 3
Branch of activt:
Agriculture 1 8 8 8 4 8 5 2 4 48Mining, quarrying 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 _ 1 1 IManufacturing 3 31 28 27 21 63 66 52 32 323Electricity, gas, water 1 3 6 1 3 6 2 11 11 44Construction * - 5 9 14 6 26 14 11 14 99 cCommerce 1 14 23 32 28 87 215 243 582 1225 1Transport, communications 2 11 13 24 24 37 53 42 96 302Banking, insurance - 7 2 4 5 24 34 19 23 1]8Services 1 4 8 10 11 48 97 62 64 305
Total 10 85 100 123 105 301 487 442 827 2480
Province:
Cap-Vert 8 64 78 96 78 207 309 276 448 1564Casamance - 5 4 12 9 24 39 43 61 197Diourbel - 1 2 1 1 3 16 20 34 78Fleuve 1 2 2 2 6 19 27 20 45 124Senegal Oriental - 1 2 3 3 9 8 11 35 72Sine-Saloum _ 6 7 8 5 21 56 55 156 314Thisa 1 6 5 1 3 18 32 17 48 131
rt
Total 10 85 100 123 105 301 487 442 827 2480rt
Source s Ministbre du Travail, Direction de la Statiatique, preliminary tabulations, November 1976.
x
Table 10: NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS BY BRANCH OF ACTIVITY AND PROVINCE, 1974
Cap- Casa- Senegal- Sine-Branch of activity Vert mance Diourbel Fleuve Oriental Saloum Thi&s ToLol
Agriculture 21 14 1 2 1 9 - 48
Mining, quarrying 10 - - - 1 2 3 16
Manufacturing 259 7 10 7 6 20 14 32-S
Electricity, gas, water 4 13 6 7 5 6 3 44
Construction 77 4 - 4 7 2 5 99
Commerce 841 83 32 45 24 144 56 1,225
Transport, communications 110 23 22 39 17 70 21 302
Banking, insurance 88 5 2 5 3 12 3 118
Services 154 48 5 15 8 49 2§ 305
Total 1,564 197 78 124 72 314 131 2,480
Source a Ministare du Travail, Direction de la Statistique, preliminary tabulations, November 19/b.
ft
0a.
- 118 - Statistical Annex
Table 11: ESTIMATED ENTRANTS TO MODERN PRIVATE SECTORWORK FORCE DURING 5 YEAR PERIOD 1977-1981
Expatriates Other Total
Additional employment during5 year period 1977-1981(at 1976 proportions):
Semi-skilled and above 800 15,900 16,700Unskilled - 5,300 5,300
Total 800 21,200 22,000
Attrition from 1976 employees(207 over 5 year period):
Semi-skilled and above 570 11,210 11,780Unskilled - 3,740 3,740
Total 570 14,950 15,520
Senegalization (25% of expatriateposts over 5 year period):
Semi-skilled and above -910 910 -25% of 1976 expatriate posts (-710) (710) (-)25% of additional expatriate (-200) (200) (-)
posts at 1976 proportionsUnskilled - -
Total -910 910
Total: Entrants to Modern PrivateSector during 5 year period1977-1981
Semi-skilled and above 460 28,020 28,480Unskilled - 9,040 9,040
Total 460 37,060 37,520
Source: Additional employment: Text Table 29.Attrition and Senegalization derived from assumptions stated.
- 119 -
Statistical Annex
Table 12: SCET PLANNING FACTORS FOR SENEGALRIVER VALLEY DEVELOPMENT L
Item 1st 2nd 3rd Totaltranche tranche tranche
No. of hectares 21,700 23,240 19,550 64,490
Investments (million CFAF):Hydro-agricultural 15,783 15,731 15,421Industrial 5,719 1,639 1,672Roads 2.500 2,700 2,400Total 24,002 20,070 19,493 63,565
Total additional valuie added (million CFAF):Fifth Plan 1,624Sixth Plan 2,624 1,860Seventh Plan 3,279 2,827 1,681
No. of families instatlled 7,300 7,700 7,000 22,000No. of persons installed 58,000 62,000 56,000 176,000Labor force participattion
rate (%) 25.1 26.3 27.5Labor force (LF) 14,560 16,306 15,400 46,266
Investments per famil.y installed:'000 CFAF 3,288 2,606 2,785 2,889US$ (at CFAF 250/US$) 13,152 10,424 11,140 11,556
Investments per member of LF:'000 CFAF 1,648 1,231 1,266 1,374US$ (at CFAF 250/US$) 6,592 4,924 5,064 5,496
Value added per workerin second plan period('000 CFAF) 180.2 173.4 n.a. n.a.
Per hectare:No. of families instEalled 0.336 0.331 0.358No. of persons installed 2.673 2.668 2.864No. of workers installed 0.671 0.702 0.788
Per hectare:Additional value added ('000 CFAF):
Fifth Plan 75 - -Sixth Plan 121 80 -Seventh Plan 151 122 86
Per hectare:Total investments ('000 CFAF):
Hydro-agricultural 727 677 789Industrial 264 71 85Roads 115 116 123Total 1,106 864 997 1,014
Capital/output Ratio(- total investments ; additional value added):
Fifth Plan 14.7 - -Sixth Plan 9.1 10.8 -Seventh Plan 7.3 7.1 11.6
/L This table is based on 3 hectares of double crop land per family, which is too muchif the project iE meant in its initial phase to give better income possibilities toa maximum number of people. The proposed 3 hectares would make the income of a farmeron irrigated lane roughly twice as high as the income of an average groundnut farmer.
Source: SCET International: Analyse des consequences de deux rythmes d'equipement de laVallee du Sen4Ral (Paris, December 1976).
- 120 - Statistical Annex
Table 13: PROPOSED INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS: INVESTMENTCOST AND JOBS TO BE CREATED
Investment Employment Investment cost/jobBranch of Activity cost (bill. to be '000 US$
CFAF) created CFAF equivalent
A. Large-scale IndustrialProjects 165.50 6L800 24,338 97.350
1. Cayar Complex (cancelled) 110.00 2,500 44,000 176,0002. Dakar Marine 47.00 2,000 23,500 94,0003. Integrated textile 7.00 1,500 4,667 18,668
project4. Knitted goods project 1.50 800 1,875 7,500
B. Smaller Industrial 9.39 2,923 3,212 12,850Projects
5. Food processing 3.20 1,040 3,077 12,3086. Textiles 1.54 396 3,888 15,5527. Wood and paper 0.30 36 8,333 33,3328. Chemicals 1.05 369 2,845 11,3809. Metallurgy 0.60 220 2,727 10,908
10. Construction materials 1.70 380 4,474 17,89611. Miscellaneous 1.00 482 2,075 8,300
TOTAL: Industrial Projects 174.89 7,282 24,017 96,067(identified above)
Sources: Line 1: Mission estimates.Line 2 to 11: Ministere du Developpement Industriel et del'Environnement: Preparation du Veme Plan: Commission dePlanification No. 2: Energie, industrie, artisanat (Dakar,5 June 1976), p. 42.
- 121 -
Statistical Annex
Table 14: STATUTORY MINIMUM WAGES (SMIG), 1960-i975
Year CFA Francs per hour
1960 40
1961 41
1962 44
1963 44
1964 44
1965 44
1966 44
1967 44
1968 47.3
1969 50.6
1970 50.6
1971 50.6
1972 50.6
1973 53.76
1974 72.97
1975' 107.06
/1 Effective November 1, 1974.
- 122 -Statistical Annex
Table 15: SALARY SCALE ACCORDING TO THE COLLECTIVE CONTRACTFOR THE MECHANICAL INDUSTRY
Unskilled and Semi-skilled Workers Skilled WorkersCategory Hourly Wage Category Salary for
(CFAF) 173.33 hours(CFAF)
1 M.O. 107.05 (SMIG) /1 1 18,5862 M.O. 121.75 2 21,6803 O.S.1 133.07 3 23,6564 O.S.2 156.77 4 28,8755 O.P.1 168.00 5 32,7556 O.P.2 191.40 6 36,2717 O.P.3 218.10 7 43,279
Foremen and Technicians Managers and EngineersCategory Salary for Category Salary for
173.33 hours 173.33 hours(CFAF) (CFAF)
Chef d'equipe MO 41,884 P 1 A 58,028Ml 42,230 B 66,768M2 52,793 P 2 A 68,979
Contremaitre M3 62,263 B 79,246Chef d'atelier M4 70,127 P 3 A 84,447
M5 70,751 B 121,998
/1 Minimum wage.
Source: Le Senegal en chiffres: Annuaire statistique du Senegal (Dakar,Societe Africaine d'Edition, 1975), p. 345.
- 123 -Stat:istical Annex
Table 16: ESTIMATE OF ENTRANTS INTO WORK FORCE (COMING FROMEDUCATIONAL SYSTEM) WITH A LEVEL OF EDUCATION ATL'EAST UP TO THE BEPC /1, 1974/75
Level Number
'Without BEPC diploma 4,500
With BEPC diploma - /2
BEPC & 1 or 2 years of:
General education (without diploma) 1,750Technical education (without diploma) 300Technical education (with diploma) 175Agricultural education (with diploma) 220
Without Baccalaureate diploma 1,450 /3
With Baccalaureate diploma - /4
Bac. & 1 year (without diploma) 700
.Bac. & 2 years (without diploma) 100
Bac. & 2 years (with diploma) 125
Bac. & 4 years or more (with diploma) 280
Total (excluding students abroad) 9,600
/1 Brevet d'Etudes du Premier Cycle
!/2 In reality, all those who pass the BEPC (5,500) continue their studies.
/3 Of those who fail 1:he Baccalaureate (2,250), 600 repeat; about 200 succeedin continuing their studies in areas where the Bac. is not required (i.e., law).The remainder abandon their studies shortly after failing the Bac.
,/4 In reality, all those who pass the Bac. continue their studies.
Source: Division du fLnancement de l1'ducation, UNESCO: estimationsprovisoires, Nov. 1976.
- 124 - Statistical Annex
Table 17: NUMBER OF WORKSHOPS BY CRAFT AMONGARTISTIC ARTISANS, 1972
Cal., Vert Other provincial TotalCap Vert ~capitals_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Craft Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
(1 (2) ~~~(3) (4) (5)(bJewellers 474 43.4 264 18.6 738 29.4
Leatherworkers(artistic) 7 0.6 3 0.2 10 0.4
Painters 2 7 0.5 9 0. 4
Photographers 45 4.1 39 2.8 84 3.3
Potters 16 1.5 39 2.8 55 2.2
Woodcarvers 75 6.9 67 ,4.7 142 5.7
Dyeing 31 2.8 40 2.8 71 2.8
Weaving 385 35.2 846 59.8 1,231 49.1
Knitting 6 0.5 23 1.6 29 1.2
Basketmraking 51 4.6 84 5.9 135 5.4
Leatherpainting - - 3 0.2 3 0.1
Taxidermy - - - -
Pearl producers - - 1 0.1 1 0.0
TOTAL 1,092 100.0 1,416 100.0 2,508 100.0
Source DireQtion de la Statistique : Enquete sur lesexploitations artisanales, draft tables (Dakar, 1976).Figures below 0.5 percent have not been calculated.Col. 3 calculated as difference between col. 5 and col. 1
- 125 - Statistical Annex
Table 28: NUMBER OF WORKSHOPS BY CRAFT AMONGARTISANS IN PRODUCTION, 1972
Cap Vert Other provincial Totalcapitals
Craft Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
- ~~~~~~~~1 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Bakers 26 0.5 18 0.5 44 0.5
Hatmaking 1 - - - . -
Brickmaking 48 0.9 127 3.6 175 2.0
Coppersmith 8 - 7 0.2 15Leatherworkers 574 11.0 445 12.5 1,019 11.6
Tailors 3,060 58.7 1,953 54.7 5,013 57.1Instrumentmakers 1 - - - 1 -
Mattressmakers 86 1.7 92 2.6 178 2.0
Blacksmithinfg L4 3 2.7 208 5.8 351 4.0
Founclry 24 0.5 4 0.1 28 -
Printing works 10 - 8 0.2 18Masons 3:20 6.1 228 6.4 548 6.2Woodworkers 800 15.4 394 11.0 1,194 13.6
Metalworkers 21 - 22 0.6 43 0.5Pastrymaking 7 - 19 0.5 26 -
Tanni.ng - - 3 0.1 3Making fish nets - - 2 0.1 2 -
Furnituremakers 82 1.5 35 1.0 117 1.3Ropemakers - - 2 0.1 2 -
Teethmakers - 1 0.0 1 -
TOTAL 5,211 100.0 3,568 100.0 8,779 100.0
Source Direction de la Statistique : Enquete sur lesexploitations artisanales, draft tables, (Dakar, 1976).Figures below 0.5 percent have not been calculated.Col (i) calculated as difference between col (5).andCol (].).
- 126 - Statistical Annex
Table 19: NUMBER OF WORKSHOPS BY CRAFT AMONG ARTISANSIN SERVICES, 1972
Otherprovincial
Craft Cap Vert capitals TotalNo. % No. % No. %
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Laundries 128 10.3 35 3.4 163 7.2Butcher shops 36 2.9 47 4.6 83 3.6Barber shops 236 18.9 103 10.0 339 14.9Electricians 1 - 4 0.4 5 -
(construction)Electricians (for autos) 27 2.2 38 3.7 65 2.9Watch repairmen 121 9.7 78 7.6 199 8.7General mechanics 265 21.2 210 20.3 475 20.8Machine repairmen 2 - 4 0.4 6 -Milling 35 2.8 83 8.0 118 5.2Painting (construction) 58 4.6 23 2.2 81 3.6Lamination 1 - 5 0.5 6 -Plumbers 2 - 3 0.3 5 -Refrigerator repairmen 12 1.0 10 1.0 22 1.0Motorbike repairmen 27 2.2 102 9.9 129 5.7Sewing machine repairmen 1 - 8 0.8 9 -Glasses repairmen 16 1.3 17 1.6 33 1.4Radio and television 93 7.5 104 10.1 197 8.6
repairmenSmall portable stove 1 - - - 1 -repairmen
Taximeter repairmen 1 - - - 1 -Welding 21 - 16 1.6 37 1.6Painting (cars) 101 8.1 57 5.5 158 6.9Lathe-work 3 - 4 0.4 7 -
Glazing 9 0.7 18 1.7 27 1.2Vulcanization 51 4.1 51 4.9 102 4.5Well drilling - - 11 1.1 11 0.5
TOTAL 1,248 100.0 1,032 100.0 2,279 100.0
Source: Direction de la Statistique: Enquete sur les exploitationsartisanales (Dakar 1976). Figures below 0.5 percent have not beencalculated. Col. (3) equals Col. (5) less Col. (1).