rental housing market trends -...

RENTAL HOUSING MARKET TRENDS

When you can’t control the wind, adjust your sails.

Providers of Real Estate Research and Market Feasibility Studies

MultifamilySingle-familyCondominiumsSeniorStudentOffice SpaceRetail SpaceLight IndustrialSelf-Storage Facilities

National Real Estate Research FirmNCAHMA, NH&RA, NCSHA and NAHRO MembersOn-line Apartment Database (50,000)State-of-the-art Demographics and Mapping

12.9%Tucson11.7%Phoenix10.7%Las Vegas9.4%Boise9.2%Denver8.7%Sacramento7.5%Seattle6.9%Oakland6.5%Orange County6.3%Portland6.1%Salt Lake City5.7%Los Angeles5.4%San Jose5.3%San Francisco5.1%San Diego

VacancyCity West Region Vacancy Rates

Sources: Marcus & Millichap, US Census, State Finance Agencies, & VWB Research

11.9%Houston10.7%San Antonio10.7%Austin9.5%Oklahoma City8.8%Dallas

VacancyCity

South Region Vacancy Rates


9.1%St. Louis8.6%Columbus8.5%Indianapolis8.4%Kansas City8.1%Detroit7.4%Cincinnati7.2%Omaha7.1%Cleveland7.0%Chicago5.1%Milwaukee4.9%Minneapolis4.6%Madison

VacancyCity

Midwest Region Vacancy Rates


6.8%Boston6.2%Philadelphia4.8%Newark3.7%Manhattan2.7%Brooklyn

Vacancy RateCity

Northeast Region Vacancy Rates


10.3%Orlando

9.9%Raleigh-Durham

9.7%Tampa

9.1%Newport News

8.5%W. Palm Bch

8.2%Ft. Lauderdale

7.7%Chattanooga

7.2%Louisville

6.9%Norfolk

6.6%Baltimore

6.6%Washington

6.2%Miami4.0%Suffolk

VacancyCity

13.7%Charleston13.7%Savannah13.6%Charlotte13.1%Jacksonville12.6%

Winston-Salem

12.1%Memphis12.0%Spartanburg12.0%Columbia11.9%Gainesville11.7%Atlanta11.2%Tallahassee11.1%Richmond

VacancyCity

Southeast Region Vacancy Rates


8.20%CONNECTICUT13.70%ILLINOIS7.90%CALIFORNIA14.00%GEORGIA7.50%ALASKA14.80%TENNESSEE7.30%NEBRASKA15.30%S. CAROLINA7.30%WASHINGTON15.30%RHODE ISLAND6.50%WYOMING15.30%FLORIDA6.20%VERMONT15.60%KENTUCKY6.00%OREGON16.60%ARIZONA5.70%NEW YORK17.50%MISSISSIPPI4.40%MASSACHUSETTES18.60%ALABAMA

Vacancy RatesVacancy RatesLowest ApartmentHighest Apartment

Source: US Census Bureau

Vacancy Rates by State (end of 2009)

National Rental Housing TrendsMultifamily apartment vacancy rates appear to have peaked in most marketsLIHTC rentals are generally outperforming market-rate housingThe flow of renters to home ownership has endedThe for-sale bubble burst and corresponding foreclosure crises has led to “bundling”Two-bedroom or larger with 1 bath have higher vacancies

Renters are generally moving down in price and qualityDownward pressure has been greatest on Class A market-rate rentsOverall rent concessions continue, but to a lesser degreeRents will likely take another 2+ years to recover to early 2008 levels

National Rental Housing Trends

Initial LIHTC lease-up rates of 6-8 UPM are more commonInitial market-rate lease-up rates have fallen to 12-18 UPMStabilized occupancy rates are projected around 90% to 93%

National Rental Housing Trends

Small & Midsize towns (< 250k people)College towns Communities with diverse economies with progressive manufacturing bases and skilled service centersCommunities benefitting from BRACUrban areas with barriers to market

Successful Markets

Areas that rely heavily on a single industry/job sector Suburban areas with substantial market-rate rental productCommunities hurt from BRACUrban markets with “tired” and functionally obsolete product

Challenged Markets

Senior CottagesSingle-family Rent to Own Homes(both in-fill and subdivisions)

Conversions (Mills, Schools, Warehouses, etc.)Preservation Projects

Successful Project Types

Senior Cottages

JE Wall Victoria Manor(Riverside, CA)

American House Hazel Park (Hazel Park, MI)

Single-Family Rentals

Valley Homes(Gloverville, SC)

Dayton Homes I-III(Dayton, OH)

Conversion Projects

Alpha Mill Apartments(Charlotte, NC)

The Apartments at American Tobacco

(Durham, NC)

Conversion Projects

Olde School Commons(Garner, NC)

Cleveland School Apts.(Clayton, NC)

Preservation Projects

Woodlawn Apartments

(Aberdeen, NC)

Worley Terrace(Columbus, OH)

April 2010 Unemployment Rates

18-Month Employment Change**Change in number of jobs

18-Month Unemployment Rate Change

Household Growth (Number)

2000-2009

Household Growth (Percent)

2000-2009

Household Growth Age 65+ (Number)

2000-2009

Household Growth Age 65+ (Percent)

2000-2009

INSERT N. CAROLINA LOW-INCOME ($10K-$40K) HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT) MAP

Low-income Household Growth (Number)

2009-2014

$0 to $35,000

Low-income Household Growth (Percent)$0 to $35,000

2009-2014

Low-income Household Growth Age 55+ (Number)

$0 to $35,000

2009-2014

Low-income Household Growth Age 55+ (Percent)

$0 to $35,000

2009-2014

North Carolina Foreclosures

Durham 800

Alamance 676Forsyth 1,948

Union 629Mecklenburg 6,722

Gaston 834

Guilford 2,869

Wake 3,179Johnston 452

New Hanover 535

High LowSource: RealtyTrac

9.2%Salisbury9.2%Greenville 8.0%High Pointe6.7%Thomasville6.7%Knightdale6.7%Garner6.6%Shelby6.3%Hickory6.0%Cary5.7%Burlington5.5%Wilson4.7%Wake Forest4.7%Pittsboro4.3%Sanford4.0%Hendersonville3.2%Fayetteville1.6%

Pinehurst/Aberdeen

1.6%Kinston0.9%Rockingham

VacancyCity

13.6%Charlotte12.8%Asheville12.6%Winston-Salem12.1%Wilmington12.0%Morganton12.0%Concord/Kannapolis9.9%Raleigh-Durham9.4%Lexington9.4%Gastonia

VacancyCity

N. Carolina Vacancy Rates

Sources: Carolina Real Data, Marcus & Millichap, NCHFA, & VWB Research

2010 NCHFA FULL APPLICATIONS

Sources: NCHFA & VWB Research

APRIL 2010 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

18-month Employment Change18-Month Employment Change**Change in number of jobs

18-Month Unemployment Rate Change

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)

2000-2009

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)

2000-2009

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (NUMBER)

2000-2009

HH growth age 65+ percentHOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (PERCENT)

2000-2009

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)

2009-2014

$0 to $35,000

Low-income growth percentLOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)

2009-2014

$0 to $35,000

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (NUMBER)

2009-2014

$0 to $35,000

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (PERCENT)

2009-2014

$0 to $35,000

South Carolina Foreclosures

High LowSource: RealtyTrac

York 965

Beaufort 1,657Charleston 2,743

Berkeley 989Dorchester 1,070

Horry 1,638

Lexington 1,340

Greenville 2,577

Spartanburg 1,081

Richland 2,076

Pickens 621

13.7%Charleston12.0%Spartanburg12.0%Columbia10.1%Myrtle Beach9.0%Beaufort8.1%Conway6.2%Bluffton5.4%Greenville5.2%Florence5.0%Rock Hill4.6%Easley4.4%Sumter4.2%Orangeburg1.8%Aiken

VacancyCity S. CAROLINA VACANCY RATES

Sources: Carolina Real Data, Marcus & Millichap, SC Housing & VWB Research

2010 SC HOUSING APPLICATIONS

Sources: SC Housing & VWB Research

APRIL 2010 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

18-MONTH EMPLOYMENT CHANGE**Change in number of jobs

18-MONTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CHANGE

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)2000-2009

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)

2000-2009

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (NUMBER)

2000-2009

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (PERCENT)

2000-2009

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)

$0 to $35,0002009-2014

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)

$0 to $35,0002009-2014

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (NUMBER)

$0 to $35,0002009-2014

LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (PERCENT)

$0 to $35,0002009-2014

Virginia Foreclosures

High Low

Chesterfield 1,210

Spotsylvania 1,148

Prince William 4,637

Loudon 2,404

Norfolk 1,207

Chesapeake 1,149Source: RealtyTrac

Frederick 608

11.1%Richmond 10.2%Charlottesville10.0%Hampton9.9%Lexington9.1%Newport News8.5%Waynesboro7.9%Williamsburg7.0%Roanoke6.9%Norfolk6.2%Lynchburg6.1%Virginia Beach6.0%Petersburg5.4%Alexandria4.9%Chesapeake4.1%Fairfax4.0%Suffolk

VacancyCity VIRGINIA VACANCY RATES

Sources: Carolina Real Data, Marcus & Millichap, VHDA & VWB Research

2010 VHDA APPLICATIONS

Sources: VHDA & VWB Research

On-line Research Resources

National Research Websites http://www.hud.gov/apps/section8/index.cfm

http://rdmfhrentals.sc.egov.usda.gov/RDMFHRentals/select_state.jsp?home=YEShttp://lihtc.huduser.org/

http://www.epodunk.com/http://www.realmarketing.com/

www.realtytrac.comwww.marcusmillichap.com

www.reis.comwww.apartmentguide.com

www.forrent.comwww.rent.com

www.apartments.comwww.apartmentfinder.com

http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/about/conplan/local/index.cfmwww.gosection8.comwww.walkscore.com

www.vwbresearch.com

North Carolina Specificwww.nchfa.com

http://www.nchousingsearch.org/www.aptindex.comwww.nchousing.org

South Carolina Specificwww.schousing.com

www.schousingsearch.comwww.affordablehousingsc.org

Virginia Resourceswww.vhda.com

www.virginiahousingsearch.comwww.vhda.com/BusinessPartners/GovandNon-Profits/

Pages/Virginia-Housing-Directory.aspx

On-line Research Resources

VWB Research’s Apartment Database

VWB Research’s Capture Rate Calculator

Contact InformationPatrick BowenVWB Research

869 W. Goodale Blvd.Columbus, Ohio 43212

(614) [email protected]

www.vwbresearch.com

rental housing market trends -...

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