renewable energy: transatlantic cooperation · american council on renewable energy. . 2 topics. 1....
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Renewable Energy:Transatlantic Cooperation
3rd Transatlantic Market Conference: Growth & SecurityMay 13-14, 2007 Washington, DC
Michael Eckhart, PresidentAmerican Council On Renewable Energy
www.acore.org
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Topics
1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets
• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel
4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today
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ACORE Membership Categories
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Policy Conference
“Phase II of Renewable Energy in America”November 30, 2006
Cannon Caucus Room, Washington, DC
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Joint Outlook on RE in AmericaTo be released May 1, 2007
Technically Feasibly Renewable Electricityby 2025:
Wind Power 248 GWSolar Energy and Power 164 GWWater Power 23 GWGeothermal Energy and Power 100 GWBiomass energy, fuels and Power 100 GWTotal Renewable Electricity 635 GW
PLUS 30% of motor fuels from renewable fuels by 2030.
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Finance
Renewable Energy Finance Forum–Wall StreetProduced with Euromoney at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York
June 20-21, 2007
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Trade Show for Industry and Markets
“POWER-GEN Renewable Energy & Fuels”Held in Las Vegas - Produced with Pennwell
March 6-8, 2007
Opening Session
Exhibit Hall
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Great Wall Renewable Energy ForumOctober 23-26, 2006
Beijing, China
Organized by Jodie Roussell, ACORE Associate Director
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US Government to Host World MeetingWashington International Renewable Energy
Conference 20081. Bonn Renewables 2004 3. WIREC 2008
Three parts:• Global inter-governmental meeting:• Official side events• Trade ShowImpacts:• 5,000+ participants• New opportunity for US leadership• Advance global cooperation
2. Beijing 2005
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Topics
1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets
• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel
4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today
Technology Solutions
Maturing of Renewable Energy Technologies – A Pipeline
Solar PV
Hydro
WindBiomass
Biodiesel
CellulosicEthanol
Solar ThermalMSW/Landfill Gas
Geothermal
Ocean/Wave
Corn Ethanol
Source: Goldman Sachs
FUELS
ELECTRICITY
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Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cost of energy in constant 2005$1
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. November 2005.
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The Challenge of Putting RE into Use- Regional Resources, Economics, and Politics -
SOLAR ENERGY WIND POWER
GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS
Resource Potential
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Topics
1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets
• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel
4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today
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Wholesale Power Generation
US Wind Power
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sources: AWEA (actual) and ACORE (forecast)
US Wind Power Installations(MW/Year)
11,900 MW Installed Base end 2006
Market Drivers: . Production Tax Credit. Renewable Portfolio Standards. Transmission
350,000 MW within 20-30 years
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Other Wholesale Power GenerationGeothermal, Hydropower, and
Solar Thermal-Electric
Geothermal Power:3,000 MW in development100,000 MW mid-term future
Hydropower:23,000 MW incremental hydro90,000 MW total “water power”
Biomass Power:Industrial CHP: 57 GWWholesale power: 37 GWSolid Waste: 10 GW
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Other Wholesale Power Generation
Concentrating Solar Power
Solar Dish-Sterling:850 MW Contracts
500 MW Letter of Intent
Solar Trough:64 MW Newly Completed1,000+ MW Proposed
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Distributed Generation
Global Solar PV Market
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1990 1995 2000 2005
GridOff-Grid
Sources: PV News and ACORE
Global Solar PV Production(MW/Year)
Annual Installations in 2005:
Germany: 750 MW/Year
Japan: 350 MW/Year
California 100 MW/Year
Key Issues:• Silicon shortage to 2008• Technology Race is on• US = 5% -10% of market
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Ethanol109 Plants + 78 projects in Construction in 19 States
Adding 6 BGY Capacity in the Next 18-24 Months
EthanolMillion Gallons / Year
• Booming expansion 2003-2008• MTBE replacement done• Demand for ethanol? E85?• Flex fuel vehicles?• President says 35 BGY by 2017• Upside: 60 – 100 BGY by 2030
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1990 2000 2010
2007 Outlook
2005 RFS
Actual
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US Biodiesel DemandVolumetric ‘Blender’ Tax Credit
Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Tax CreditAlternative Fuel Refueling Infrastructure Tax Credit
Biodiesel TaxIncentives
Source: Scott Hughes & J. Alan Weber
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Revolutionary Opportunity is at our Doorstep
Biofuels + Hybrid Engines50 – 100 mpg of fuel by Hybrid Vehicles
300–600 mpg of gasoline when running E8510x to 20x improvement
2003 Toyota Prius47 mpg
2006 Toyota Prius51 mpg
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Topics
1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets
• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel
4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today
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Wind Turbine Industry2005 Global Market Shares
1. Vestas Denmark 34%2. Gamesa Spain 18%3. Enercon Germany 15%4. GE Wind USA 11%5. Siemens Germany 6%6. Suzlon India 4%7. REpower Germany 3%8. Mitsubishi Japan 2%9. Ecotècnia Germany 2%10. Nordex Germany 2%
All Others 3%Total 100%
Goldwind, China
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Solar PV Industry2005 Global Market Shares – Production of PV Cells
1. Sharp Solar 428 MW2. Q-Cells 160 MW3. Kyocera 142 MW4. Sanyo 125 MW5. Mitsubishi 100 MW6. Schott Solar 95 MW7. BP Solar 90 MW8. Suntech 80 MW9. Motech 60 MW10. SolarWorld (Shell) 59 MW
All Others 388 MWWorld Total 1,727 MW
Solar PV Company,China
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Public Market Investment by Country2006
$3m (0/0/1)
$13m (1/0/0)
$51m (0/2/3)
$107m (1/0/0)
$175m (1/0/0)
$205m (7/4/0)
$238m (3/8/2)
$250m (0/2/0)
$281m (3/3/1)
$302m (1/0/0)
$332m (1/0/0)
$512m (1/0/0)
$635m (2/0/1)
$1160m (1/0/0) $3084m (10/10/18)
$3652m (5/4/5)Germany
United States
Norway
France
Bermuda
Philippines
Italy
China
Denmark
United Kingdom
Australia
Brazil
Austria
Canada
Thailand
Switzerland
IPO Secondary Convertible and other
Popular Motivation
Solar Insolation in Germany and the US
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US Government to Host World MeetingWashington International Renewable Energy
Conference 2008
Bonn Renewables 2004 WIREC 2008
International Collaboration on Policy
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Topics
1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets
• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel
4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today
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Working Group 1:Solar, Wind, Biomass, Hydrogen
• Victor AbateVice President, Renewables, GE EnergySchenectady, New York
• Prof. Dr. N. El BassamDirector, International Research Center for Renewable Energy (IFEED), Lehrte, Germany
• Christoph HussHead, Dept. for Science and Traffic Policy, BMW AG, Munich, Germany
• Brendan KennedyGeneral manager – Defense, MAN Ferrostaal, Inc., New York, New York
• Dr. Ludolf PlassSenior Vice President Sales technology, Lurgi AG, Frankfurt/Main, Germany
Thank Yoube a member
www.acore.orgwww.acore.orgMichael Eckhart
American Council On Renewable [email protected]