East of England

Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Capacity Study

The Landscape Partnership Spatial Planning TeamAECOM SustainableDevelopment Group

Presentation Structure

1. Study objectives and scope2. Demand and provision of energy3. Potential energy contributions4. Energy opportunity maps5. Dissemination and delivery

Presentation Team

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The Landscape Partnership AECOMRichard Summers Andrew Turton

1: STUDY OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE

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Study Objectives

• To enable each local authority to assess the role it can play incontributing to national renewable and low carbon energy targets

• To adopt the “DECC methodology” to enable East of England results to be included in an overall national assessment of energy capacity

• To assess the total regional potential to provide a contribution to renewable energy capacity including the likely potential by 2020

• To indicate the potential for renewable and low carbon energy generation at a local level with the East of England

• To identify the opportunities and constraints for deploying regional renewable and low carbon energy potential at the local level

• To provide maps and data that can be used at a local level to help identify local renewable and low carbon energy projects

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Study Scope

The study examines renewable energy resource potential as well as renewable energy generation which differs particularly for biomass. The main types of energy generation are …

•District Heating (DH) and Combined Heat and Power (CHP);•Onshore Wind Energy;•Biomass Energy (all forms);•Energy from Waste (all forms);•Hydro Energy;•Microgeneration; •Large scale Solar PV (not originally in DECC method)

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Study Outputs

• Study Report to DECC – for national analysis and reporting– Maps and data tables on ArcView Publisher for local analysis

• Study Report to Local Authorities – to focus on local dissemination and delivery– Maps and data tables on ArcView Publisher for local analysis

• Suggestions for further action

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2: DEMAND AND PROVISION OF ENERGY

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Baseline Energy Demand

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ann

ual ene

rgy de

mand (GWh)

Year

Non‐domestic heating Non‐domestic electricity

Domestic heating Domestic electricity

The total energy consumption in 2008 was around 97,000 GWhEnergy demand is projected to rise by 2% from 2011 to 2020 This comprises 69% in heat energy and 31% in electrical energy

Current Renewable Energy Installations The current capacity for renewable and low carbon energy generation is about 850 MWe. About 500 MW of this is in operation and about 200 MW has consent or is awaiting construction.

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Capacity by technology and status (MW) Total capacity

Dedicated Biomass 199.0

Landfill Gas 150.1

Sewage Gas 27.2

Municipal and Industrial Waste 110.8

Photovoltaics 5.0

Wind 330.6

Hydro 0.04

Total 822.7

This output from this capacity is equivalent to 3.9% of total predicted 2020 energy demand (heat and electrical energy) or 12.7% of the predicted 2020 electrical energy demand.

Comparison with Other Regions

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Wind : Advantage of extensive rural areas combined with flat topology

Hydro : Very limited resource potential.

Biomass : Low opportunity because of limited managed forestry and extensive farmland.

Solar : Similar to other regions because levels of insulation are relatively uniform across UK.

Waste : Large installed capacity with greater potential for agricultural waste resulting from extensive agriculture and food processing.

3: POTENTIAL ENERGY CONTRIBUTIONS

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Total Energy Resource Potential by County

• Total energy resource potential of the East of England is 264% of the predicted 2020 energy demand.

• Onshore wind could contribute 316% of total demand in Cambridgeshire - the largest energy resource type

• But the predicted total energy resource must be offset by physical and operational constraints

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Location

Onshore w

ind: com

mercial scale

Onshore w

ind: sm

all and micro

scale

Building scale

solar (PV

and solar therm

al)

Heat pum

ps

Hydro:

small scale

Large scale PV

Landfill gas

Sew

age gas

Managed

woodland - C

HP

Managed

woodland - B

oilers

Energy crops

Waste w

ood

Straw

Wet organic w

aste

Poultry litter

Energy from

w

aste: MS

W and

C&

IW

Total

Essex 115% 0% 2% 1% 0% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 137%

Hertfordshire 77% 0% 3% 1% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 104%

Bedfordshire 167% 0% 4% 2% 0% 22% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 4% 206%

Cambridgeshire 316% 0% 3% 2% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 3% 343%

Norfolk 436% 0% 3% 2% 0% 51% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 3% 503%

Suffolk 386% 0% 3% 2% 0% 47% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 4% 451%

TOTAL 224% 0% 3% 2% 0% 24% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 260%

THERMAL AND ELECTRICITY (% OF 2020 DEMAND)

Realistic Energy Resource Potential by County

• This prediction is moderated by constraints in the supply chain which limit the uptake of renewable technologies.

• It is also moderated by other constraints such as the cumulative impact of adjoining wind farms.

• These constraints provide a more realistic estimate of the uptake of energy resource potential in 2020 given current conditions

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Location

Onshore w

ind: com

mercial scale

Onshore w

ind: sm

all and micro

scale

Building scale

solar (PV

and solar therm

al)

Heat pum

ps

Hydro:

small scale

Large scale PV

Landfill gas

Sew

age gas

Managed

woodland - C

HP

Managed

woodland - B

oilers

Energy crops

Waste w

ood

Straw

Wet organic w

aste

Poultry litter

Energy from

w

aste: MS

W and

C&

IW

Total

Essex 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 2.3% 6.7%

Hertfordshire 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 7.0%

Bedfordshire 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4.1% 12.3%

Cambridgeshire 3.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 3.1% 9.8%

Norfolk 4.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4% 3.0% 14.5%

Suffolk 3.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 4.4% 14.0%

TOTAL 2.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 3.1% 9.7%

THERMAL AND ELECTRICITY (% OF 2020 DEMAND)

Effective Renewable Energy Contribution The effective contribution of renewable energy generation in the East of England is

estimated to be about 10% of projected demand by 2020.

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Energy from waste has largest uptake –but at limit

Most of these are approaching technical potential

Wind is at 1% of technical potential –how much more is possible?

4: ENERGY OPPORTUNITY MAPS

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East of EnglandEnergy Opportunity Map

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North SubregionEnergy Opportunity Map Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk

East SubregionEnergy Opportunity MapEssex

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West SubregionEnergy Opportunity MapHertfordshire andBedfordshire

5: DISSEMINATION AND DELIVERY

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Local Dissemination

• Study Report on Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Capacity to Local Authorities in the East of England– focus on local dissemination and delivery– maps and data tables on ArcView Publisher

• Key conclusions for action– On-shore wind generation – Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk – Energy from waste – Norfolk, Suffolk, Bedfordshire– Need for further local assessments to identify projects

• Opportunities for local dissemination– Need County and local seminars to present study results– Opportunities to link into Cambridgeshire CFIF and CEF– On-going work on dissemination with Suffolk planners

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Local Delivery

• Energy Opportunity Maps– Combined study results for three subregions– Areas with energy resources and DH/CHP opportunities– Need for further local assessment in key opportunity areas

• Wind turbine and District Heating Opportunities– Test against Local Plans (LDFs) and Environmental Designations– Explore with Local Authorities, LEPs and commercial operators– Discuss with local communities to identify potential projects

• Project feasibility and implementation– Explore funding sources and undertake feasibility studies – Secure community support and necessary consents– Need guidance on local delivery of renewable energy projects

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Next Steps

• Local dissemination– Propose County, local and neighbourhood workshops– Liaise with Climate Change Skills Fund skills initiatives– Complement other current initiatives in the East of England

• Local delivery– Link renewable energy project opportunities to the new localism– Consider potential for “local renewable energy pilot schemes”– Feed renewable energy into Neighbourhood Development Plans

• Wider issues– Identify delivery partners for renewable energy projects– Build on the growing awareness of tackling climate change– Focus on feasible priorities for practical local action

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BACKGROUND INFORMATION

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Analysis

‘DECC Methodology’

Department of Energy and Climate Change commissioned a study todevelop a standard methodology to conducting capacity assessments.The resultant methodology (the “DECC methodology”) was released

in 2010 and additional funding from DECC was made available for regions to complete studies using this standardised methodology,and contribute towards developing a consistent set of regional and national targets.

However the emphasis is on developing information which can be used at a more local level to promote the development of renewable and low carbon energy, rather than working to region-wide targets.

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DECC methodology

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The simple bit: methodology provided!

The difficult bit: methodology not provided!

Low Carbon Energy Generation Potential

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Assessed using heat mapping and minimum heat density viability threshold.

The potential CHP and district heating capacity is 1,050 MWe.

This is 4.5 times the current installed capacity (but the current capacity is dominated by British Sugar – not district heating).

Renewable Potential – Wind Energy

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84,599 MW capacity after the hard and soft constraints have been taken into account.

Assuming 1 in 10 of these areas is viable, the practical achievable resource is 8,460 MW.

To account for uptake limitations, it is assumed that 10% of this can be delivered by 2020, giving a realistic 2020 uptake estimate of 846 MW.

At present only 2.1% has been achieved, or 4.0% if turbines in construction or with planning consent are included

t3

Slide 28

t3 Check with Seyhan - wind may be incorrect in current dataturtona, 16/06/2011

Renewable Potential – Biomass Energy

• Existing capacity:

• The 38 MWe Ely Power Station biomass plant at Elean Business Park, in Ely, Cambridge.

• The 38.5MWe Thetford Power Plant in Thetford, Norfolk. • The 12.7 MWe Eye Power Plant in Suffolk.

• Planned / consented: • A 40MWe electricity producing plant from burning waste wood in

Thetford Norfolk• A 60MWe Tilbury Green Power Plant• A 40 MWe Mendlesham proposed straw fired Biomass Plant in Suffolk

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Renewable Potential – Biomass Energy

Energy crops• Potential is limited by land availability (and competition for food)• EoE under severe water stress – significant constraint on energy crop growth.

Woody biomass• EoE has relatively low wood coverage. Managed woodland accounts for only a

small fraction of total woodland.

Waste wood • Potentially large resource from C&I waste. • Generally used for energy schemes by waste agglomerators.

Straw• Extremely large straw resource but...• ... There are a number of competing uses which have a higher value to the

farmers such as bedding, fertiliser, etc. 30

Energy from waste

MSW and C&I• Limited by waste hierarchy – need to reduce and recycle first. Likely reductions

over time in the future. • Needs to be considered on a county basis due to county waste strategies.

Anaerobic digestion• Primarily from food and animal wastes. • Requires a significant mass of feedstock – 10s of thousands of tonnes per MW. • Need to consider feedstock availability and disposal of digestate

Community engagement• EfW can create significant local opposition. It is likely that good sites are also

close to communities to allow off take of heat. • Need to achieve community buy-in to ensure this resource use is maximised.

Need to remove out of date perceptions and sell modern systems, and market the cheap energy.

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Renewable Potential – Hydro Energy

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• Hydropower has a very limited role to play in renewable energy generation.

• 55 kW installed according to the FiT database

• Resource potential is 1.5 MW after the constraints are taken into account

• Only 10% of this accessible potential is achieved before 2020 representing 150 kWe in total...

... a negligible resource at a regional scale. BUT can be attractive to communities and could form a gateway to other schemes.

Renewable Potential – Large Scale PV

• Large scale photovoltaic arrays or ‘farms’ are a recent concept for the UK due to subsidy introduced by the UK government

• The financial viability is extremely sensitive to the tariff – changes to FiTs make future installations highly unlikely.

• Potential uptake by 2020 assumed to be 280 MW, equivalent to circa 56 x 5 MW farms.

• As of 9/06/2011 the tariff has been cut drastically and it is expected that will have an impact on the uptake.

• There is currently one 5 MW PV farm development at post planning stage in the region.

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