remme 20130709 etp times h2 roadmap - microsoft · 2019. 11. 27. · microsoft powerpoint - remme...
TRANSCRIPT
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Hydrogen Roadmap
Analytical approach of theAnalytical approach of the supply side modelling
Uwe Remme
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Low‐carbon energy technology roadmapsJuly 9, 2013
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S l id d lliSupply‐side modellingETP‐TIMES
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ETP modelling frameworkgEnergy costs
Primary energy
Conversion sectors
Final energyEnd-use sectors
End-use service demands
Electricity production Material
demands
Fossil
Renewables
Refineries
Synfuelplants
ElectricityGasoline
DieselNatural
gas
Industry
Buildings
demands
Heating
Cooling
Passenger
Nuclear
p
CHP and heat plants
etc.
gHeatetc.
Transport
Passengertravel
Freight
etc. MoMo
Model horizon: 2009‐2050 (2075) in 5 year periods
ETP-TIMES model
MoMomodel
Energy demand
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Regional structure of ETP‐TIMESg
• 28 model regions representing individual countries or aggregations of countries• Only one geographic point per model region; differentiation within a single region, e.g. through different resource categories
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g g
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Structure of supply side model (ETP TIMES)(ETP‐TIMES)
Fuel costs Technical and economic characteristics Electricity and heat demands
H2
Potentials
Load curves
2
H2
H2Electricity prices
Fuel demand
Emissions
• Least‐cost optimisation approach• Methodology developed by ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) implementing
agreement of the IEA
Generation mix, new capacities
Electricity pricesAverage generation costs
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g
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Hydrogen supply options
Centralisedhydrogen production
y g pp y p
hydrogen production
Pyrolysis/Gasifier/Reformer
with and without CCS
Natural gasHeavy fuel oilCoalBiomass
H2 distribution
Natural gas pipeline
Natural gas use
H2 use in transport,
max. 10%
Sulfur/Iodine cycle
Electrolysis
NuclearSolar
Electricity
H2 pipeline
H2 storage
transport,industry, buildings,electricity generation,refining
Decentralisedhydrogen production
Electrolysis at fuel stationElectricity H2 gas storage
Reformer at fuel stationNatural gas
Reformer/Gasifierat refinery
Natural gasHeavy fuel oil
H2 use in refining
LH2 storageH2 use in transport
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Hydrogen supply costs in comparison t th f lto other fuels
H2 electrolysisH2 electrolysis
H2 l ith CCS
H2 natural gas
H2 natural gas with CCS
H2 biomass
H2 biomass with CCS
2050 USD 150/tCO2
H2 natural gas with CCS
H2 biomass
H2 biomass with CCS
y
BTL with CCS
Lignocellulosic ethanol
Lignocellulosic ethanol (CCS)
H2 coal
H2 coal with CCS
2050 USD 100/tCO2
2050 USD 50/tCO2H2 coal
H2 coal with CCS
H2 natural gas
2050USD 150/tCO2
CTL with CCS
GTL
GTL with CCS
BTL
BTL with CCS
2050 USD 0/tCO2
2050 USD 150/tCO2
2050 USD 100/tCO2
2050 USD 50/tCO2
2050USD 0/tCO2
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Diesel
CTL
2010 USD/bbl
2010
2050 USD 0/tCO2
2010
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Global hydrogen supply in the 2DSy g pp y
5
3
4Natural gas
Electricity
2
3
EJ
Electricity
Biomass with CCS
0
1
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Biomass
N t C ti ti t fi i d h i l l t t i l d d
Hydrogen may become an attractive storage option for surplus electricity from variable renewables by 2050
Note: Captive generation at refineries and chemical plants not included.
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Energy storage
First hydrogen balloon flight by Jacques Charles and Nicolas Robert in Paris on 1 December, !783.
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The way electricity is producedh i 2DSchanges in a 2DS
40 00045 000 Other
Wind 19%100%
4DS
15 00020 00025 00030 00035 000
TWh
WindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOil
67%
3%
13%
12%
36%
40%
60%
80%RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
45 000 Other 100%
05 00010 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
OilGasCoal
49%
0%
20%
2009 2050
20 00025 00030 00035 00040 000
TWh
WindSolarHydroNuclearBi d t
13%
19%
57%
40%
60%
80%RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCS
2DS
05 00010 00015 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Biomass and wasteOilGasCoal
67%
9%
14%
19%
0%
20%
40%
2009 2050
Fossil w/o CCS
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…but also electricity consumption hchanges
Global LDV sales in the 2DS
150
200 FCEV
Electricity
Plug in hybrid diesel
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
llion
)
Global LDV sales in the 2DS
100
150 Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
V s
ales
(mil
50
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Dieselseng
er L
DV
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GasolinePas
s
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Electricity generation Transport
Rail
EV/PHEV
Elec
Fossil
Nuclear
i bl blSystems
G2V
V2G
Heat
H2 FC
H2/SNG
Industry
Variable renewables
Dispatchablerenewablesthinking is
needed N ti DSMCHP
H2 FC
CNG vehiclesH2/SNG
y
Chloralkali electrolysis
Aluminium electrolysis
Electric arc furnace
neededElectricity storageP d t
Positive DSM
Negative DSMFossil
Renewables
Heat boiler
Buildings
Electric appliances
Pumped storage
CAES
Heat storage Negative DSM
Process steam
Electric water boilers
Heat pumps
Positive DSM
District heating
Fuel productionElectrolysis
Methanisation
Gas boilers
Desalination
District heat boilers
Fuel storageGas storage
H2 storage
g
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Storage technologies are differentg g
1 year
Hi h t thou
rs
1 month
1 week
1 day
Hydrogen/gas storageCAES
Pumped storage
Lithium‐ion battery
Lead‐acid battery
High‐temperature batteries
age tim
e in h 1 day
1 hour
Superconductive energy storage
Double‐layer capacitor
Flywheel storage
Stora
1 minute
Source: Schegner, Vor‐ und Nachteile verschiedener Prinzipien der Speicherung elektrischer Energie, 2012
Superconductive energy storagey g
Installed capacity
1 second
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Speicherung elektrischer Energie, 2012
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Comparison of storage cycle costs: D il iDaily operation
1 GW for 8h (8 GWh), 1 cycle per day( ), y p y
Hydrogen
CAES(adiabatic)
> 10 years todaytoday
Pumped storage depending on location
> 10 years
Costs (Euro Cent/kWh)
p g
Source: VDE‐Study: Energy storage in power supply systems with a high share of renewable energy sources
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Comparison of storage cycle costs: W kl iWeekly operation
500 MW for 200h (100 GWh), 2 cycles per month( ), y p
Hydrogen
CAES(adiabatic)
> 10 years today
( )
Pumped storage
> 10 years today
depending on location
Costs (Euro Cent/kWh)
depending on location
Source: VDE‐Study: Energy storage in power supply systems with a high share of renewable energy sources
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Energy storage analysisgy g y
• Enhanced ETP‐TIMES model (long‐term; horizon up to 2050):– 4h‐load segments for a typical day (6 per day, four typical days per year)– Large‐scale storage: electricity, thermal, hydrogen– Considering other flexibility options for the electricity system:
• Flexible generation technologiesI l i f d d V2G• Inclusion of demand response, e.g. V2G
– Investment decisions in generation technologies and first estimate on storage needs; better capturing impact of operational aspects on capacity needs
• Dedicated TIMES model for operational analysis (short‐term; one year):– 1h‐timeslice resolution
Analysing operation of electricity system within a year for specific region with– Analysing operation of electricity system within a year for specific region with investment decisions for generation technologies from long‐term model
– Additional operational constraints (ramp‐up/‐down, min load, min up/down times)– Improved analysis on storage needs and role of competing flexibility options
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Fuel supply Electricity plants (only) Transmission and distribution
l l l
Transport
Rail
Flexible generation Stronger grids
Demand sidemanagement
DSM
Variable renewables
Dispatchablerenewables
Fossil supply
Nuclear supply
Transmission and distribution
Fossil
Nuclear
Buildings
EV/PHEV
Elec. appliances
…
DSM
Fossil
Renewables
Public CHP & heat plants
Autoproducer CHP
Renewable supply
District heat grid
Industry
Elec. water boiler + storage
Heat pumps…
DSM
Fossil
Renewables
Autoproducer CHP and heat plants
Chloralkali electrolysis
Aluminium electrolysis
Electric arc furnace
Compressed air
Process heat
…
Electricity storagePumped storage
CAES
District heat storage
P h t t
Energy storage
Modelling of the electricity sector
Process heat storage
H2 electrolysis + storage H2 uses
Elec. DH boilersFlexible uses in conversion sector
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Challenges of the H2 analysis on the l idsupply side
• Lack of complete information on captive (on‐site) generation at fi i d h i l l t t drefineries and chemical plants today
• Development of H2‐related technologies in terms of their technical and economic characteristics as well as scale
• H infrastructure: spatial and scale aspects only covered to some• H2 infrastructure: spatial and scale aspects only covered to some degree in global ETP‐TIMES model, possible approaches:– Expanding transport infrastructure model– Relying on existing national studiesRelying on existing national studies
• H2 as flexibility option for the electricity sector: – Assessing synergies with storage needs for end‐use consumption– Role of natural gas infrastructure (power‐to‐gas) g (p g )– Competing options for flexibility (flexible generation, other storage
technologies, demand response, larger balancing area)
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Thank you!Thank you!
Uwe Remme
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Example: Variability of windp y25
Wh
Wind generation in Germany in 2011d
20
GW Wind generation in Germany in 2011 Wind generation 2011
Average annual wind generation
Wind as base load incl. storage losses
10
15
Transforming variable wind generation of 2011 in constant base load generation would require a
5
load generation would require a storage capacity of 3 TWh (largely based on long‐term H2 storage)
For comparison: around 0.040 TWhof pumped storage capacity today
00 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
HoursData source: EEX Transparency
Theoretical example, as other flexibility options, notably flexible generation, are not considered
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