religare morning · pdf filelic housing finance 25-jan-17 526 667 27.0% 614.6 force ... berger...

1 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/

Religare Morning Digest

March 29, 2017

Nifty Outlook

VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)

NIFTY 9005 9200 9000

Nifty gained over half a percent and reclaimed 9100, thanks to the rebound in Asian counterparts and favourable local cues. Initially, it surged on the hopes of timely implementation of goods and services tax (GST) which further strengthened with recovery in global indices. However, it remained range bound thereafter while participants were busy in rollover and unwinding of their derivatives positions.

We expect volatility to increase in the next two sessions due to scheduled derivatives expiry. Even liquid stocks are witnessing erratic intraday swings, which is normal during consolidation phase. Traders should continue with positive yet cautious approach and refrain from going overboard.

Sectors to watch

Sector Name Outlook

BANK STABLE

ENERGY STABLE

AUTO STABLE

News

Religare Super Ideas**

FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats

Category Amt. MTD FYTD

FII 578 19826 45151

DII -594 -9235 25945

NO OF CON-

TRACTS

TURNOVER IN CR

IDXFUTS 308490 22527

IDXOPT 4296781 318589

STKFUTS 1215685 87111

Derivative Ideas **

Larsen and Toubro’s construction arm secured a key design-and-build order worth Rs. 2,903cr to re-develop Mumbai’s century-old BDD chawls at Worli, for Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA).

Dishman Pharma closed up 20% after the company received the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) approval for its cancer drug ‘Zejula Capsules’ for Tesaro Inc.

Share price of Technofab Engineering ended higher by 4.4% on news that the company has bagged three orders from Power Grid Corporation for Rs 255cr, in the state of Tripura. It has also received one order from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, Kigali for construction contract related to establishment of Centre of Excellence in Farm Mechanisation for $12.3mn. The order has a timeline of one year for completion.

*FII & DII data as on 27th March 2017

Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation

Range SL* Target

BHARATFORG BUY 1046.65 1045-

1050 1010 1130

INDIACEM BUY 157.45 157-160 153 174

**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are

"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.

*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.

Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION

RANGE SL

TAR-GET

GODREJIND BUY APR 1500 500-503 492 525



March 29, 2017

Religare Super Ideas

Investment Pick - Force Motors

Force Motors's Q3FY17 numbers were below expectations led by demonetization. Revenue fell 14.2%, whereas EBITDA and PAT declined 39% and 14.8%

respectively on YoY basis. Nevertheless, we remain positive on the business of the company and expect recovery to happen soon as the liquidity crunch situation normalizes. We are bullish on luxury cars segment (auto component segment) and Force's dominance in LCV space (traveller segment) and thus recommend a Buy on the stock.

We expect the company to report revenue and profit CAGR of 18% and 22% respectively over FY16-19E. Going forward, we expect healthy margins with

improved product mix and higher capacity utilization, along with improved return ratios and robust cash flows.

Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price

FORCEMOT 4,601.3 5,210 9-12 Months 4,274

We are reiterating our buy call in GODREJIND as it

was not initiated in the given range on Tuesday.

Strategy: BUY GODREJIND APRIL FUTS BETWEEN

500-503, SL 492, TARGET 525.

Derivative Ideas

Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) The India Cements Limited (INDIACEM)

BHARATFORG has registered a fresh breakout

after a month-long consolidation phase. Its chart

pattern along with oscillators are pointing toward

strong surge ahead.

INDIACEM, after a recent slide, has formed a fresh

buying pivot around the support area of short-term

moving averages i.e. 50 day EMA on daily chart.

Confirmation indicators are also in the favor of

strong rebound.



March 29, 2017

Religare Investment Calls

Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price

Nandan Denim 5-Jan-16 150 183 22.0% 120.6

Atul Auto 22-Mar-16 506 580 14.6% 484.5

Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 358.7

Fiem Industries 26-Dec-16 1,089 1,315 20.8% 877.1

LIC Housing Finance 25-Jan-17 526 667 27.0% 614.6

Force Motors 25-Jan-17 4,274 5,210 21.9% 4601.3

Zee Entertainment Enterprises 27-Jan-17 498 592 18.8% 530.4

Swaraj Engines Ltd. 31-Jan-17 1,406 1,736 23.5% 1483.4

Greenply Industries 3-Feb-17 268 304 13.4% 278.4

Manpasand Beverages 7-Feb-17 681 854 25.4% 702.1

Wonderla Holidays 7-Feb-17 380 430 13.1% 381.5

Century Plyboards 8-Feb-17 216 300 38.8% 246.3

Credit Analysis and Research 9-Feb-17 1,381 1,694 23.0% 1500.7

NRB Bearings 9-Feb-17 108 132 22.2% 105.0

Tv Today Network 14-Feb-17 270 360 33.3% 263.4

CRISIL 14-Feb-17 2,078 2,540 22.2% 1915.9

Sutlej Textiles 14-Feb-17 843 1,032 22.5% 815.6

Jain Irrigation Systems 17-Feb-17 93 104 11.8% 94.5

Indo Count Industries Ltd. 17-Feb-17 164 207 26.2% 198.2

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness 20-Feb-17 217 328 51.1% 246.4

SML Isuzu 21-Feb-17 1,240 1,560 25.8% 1251.4

Arman Financial Services 22-Feb-17 226 340 50.0% 186.5

Minda Corporation 23-Feb-17 93 117 25.8% 91.4

Jamna Auto 28-Feb-17 209 272 30.1% 207.2

Castrol India 7-Mar-17 412 483 17.1% 415.8

Berger Paints (I) Ltd 15-Mar-17 230 273 18.7% 229.5

Avanti Feeds 16-Mar-17 715 945 32.2% 714.9



March 29, 2017

Corporate Action Calendar — March 2017 (Cash Dividend)

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

26 27

Indiabulls Ventures Ltd

Coal India Ltd

28 29

Hindustan Zinc Ltd

30

Muthoot Finance Ltd

Sharda Cropchem Ltd

Power Finance Corp Ltd

31

Bharti Infratel Ltd

Economic Calendar — March 2017


26 27 28 29 30 31

Fiscal Deficit INR Crore

Eight Infrastructure Industries

Corporate Action Calendar — March 2017 (Stock Dividend)


26 27 28 29 30 31

Ashari Agencies Ltd

Corporate Action Calendar — March 2017 (Acquisition) Date Target Company Acquirer Company

3/31/2017 Delta Ria and Pathology Pvt Ltd Dr Lal PathLabs Ltd

3/31/2017 Suvidhaa Infoserve Pvt Ltd Potential Buyer

3/31/2017 Belvedere Chemical Pvt Ltd Universal Autofoundry Ltd

3/31/2017 Vantage Corporate Services Ltd Private Investor

3/31/2017 Dhruva Interactive Pvt Ltd Starbreeze AB

3/31/2017 Cornerstone Advisors Group LLC 8K Miles Software Services Ltd

3/31/2017 InstaEMI Money Managers Pvt Ltd Unnamed Buyer

3/31/2017 Humble Mobile Solutions Pvt Ltd Unitus Seed Fund

3/31/2017 Futemind Technologies Pvt Ltd Private Investor

3/31/2017 Max Speciality Films Ltd Toppan Printing Co Ltd

3/31/2017 Bhavya Infra & Systems Pvt Ltd Dilip Buildcon Ltd

3/31/2017 Vedica Sanjeevani Projects Pvt Ltd McNally Bharat Engineering Co Ltd

3/31/2017 SPS Processors Pvt Ltd Bodal Chemicals Ltd



March 29, 2017

Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 28th March’17

Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)

Bajaj Corp Consumer Goods May 13, 2016 8.8% 393 372

Magma Fincorp Financial Services June 30, 2016 9.0% 109 102

Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 9.0% 1,151 1,016

Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 10.0% 425 416

Punjab National Bank Financial Services October 3, 2016 10.9% 143 149

Minda Corporation Auto Ancillaries October 10, 2016 9.1% 109 91

CRISIL Financial Services February 2, 2017 9.7% 2,000 1,916

Sml Isuzu Auto February 6, 2017 10.1% 1,265 1,251

UPL Fertilisers & Pesticides March 17, 2017 10.1% 723 722

Amara Raja Batteries Auto March 22, 2017 12.0% 868 871

Cash 1.3%

Total Total 100%



March 29, 2017

Historical Performance as on 28th March’17

Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception

Religare Alpha -1.1% 9.7% -4.6% 17.6% 24.8%

Nifty 1.8% 15.1% 4.1% 19.5% 15.4%

Outperformance -2.9% -5.4% -8.7% -1.9% 9.4%



March 29, 2017

Research Product Basket

For cash market trading

Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated

Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%

Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%

Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%

Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%

Cash NA 10%

For 1L margin*

Total Per Call

25,000 8,000

30,000 4,000

15,000 5,000

20,000 As per weightage

10,000

Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our

intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.

Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day

(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that

there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.

Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master

Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.

Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio

which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.

Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.

For derivative market trading

Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated

Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%

Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%

Cash NA 10%

For 1L margin*

Total Per Call

40,000 40,000

50,000 50,000

10,000

Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2

such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.

Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be

allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.

Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.

For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client

and their investment goals.

The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.

It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.



March 29, 2017

Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]

Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]

Ajit Mishra [email protected]

Archana Gude [email protected]

Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]

Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]

Siji A Philip [email protected]

Swati Saxena [email protected]

Vipin Kumar [email protected]

Team Members



March 29, 2017

Before you use this research report , please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html

Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under:

Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)

[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]

Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).

[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]

Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any

other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.

S. No. Statement Answer

Yes No

I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No

I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?

No

I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?

No

I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No

I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No

I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No

I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No

I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No

I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No

I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No

SS..No. Name(s) of RA.

Signtures of RA

Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer

Yes No.

http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html

religare morning · pdf filelic housing finance 25-jan-17 526 667 27.0% 614.6 force ... berger...

Documents