regional materials - kimeng.com.hk€¦ · regional materials gems, picks & shovels material...
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Regi
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July 22, 2014
SEE PAGE 13 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Regional Materials Gems, Picks & Shovels Material Headlines Bottom falling out again on thermal coal prices (-2% last week)
(McCloskey). Avoid the sector or for trading accounts buy on dips as market conditions stabilize during the next few months.
LME aluminium price rises to one-year high. The good news is the majority of Chinese smelters are still loss making at current prices, the bad news is most continue to operate (AZ China).
Western banks are reportedly pulling back on financing of metals exports to China after ICBC applied for the right not to settle a letter of credit (AMM). Imports likely to ease further.
China Coal and Shenhua reported coal sales YTD to June that were flat for the former and -3% for the latter YoY pointing to a likely downgrade of volume guidance adding to pricing woes.
Metals demand enters seasonally slow summer period but copper and zinc market sentiment appears to be rising for next year on improving demand growth and slowing supply.
Impact on Stock Recommendations Consensus expectations for metals prices in 2015 appear low for
copper and nickel, and too high for thermal coal and steel. Finding equity laggards is a bit easier in copper than nickel.
For copper exposure, we like high-beta play Jiangxi Copper (358 HK; HKD13.86; BUY; TPHKD15). For long-term copper growth (1-2 years) and zinc exposure we like MMG. Our top regional small-cap copper play is Atlas Mining (AT PM; PHP15.26; BUY; TP19.72).
VALE Indonesia (INCO IJ; IDR3,790; BUY; TPIDR4,600) has lagged, but should get a boost if nickel prices rise next year as we forecast to USD9.50/lb (+19% YoY, 12% above consensus).
Reiterate SELL on China Coal (1898 HK; HKD4.12; SELL) with consensus EPS downgrades ahead and likely capex cuts on decreasing cash flows. In this tough market we prefer Shenhua (1088 HK; HKD20.85; BUY; TP24), which we would buy on dips.
Chalco (2600 HK; HKD3.08; BUY; TPHKD3.20) shares have benefited from rising aluminium prices as inventories decrease from very high levels. The stock may pause if Chinese supply growth accelerates later this year, capping the price rally.
Recent reports China Coal –Profit warning; Reiterate SELL (7/21/14)
Bumi Res. Minerals – Better comfort level (7/18/14)
Philippine Mining – Boom benefits all nickel miners (7/17/14)
Vale Indonesia – 2Q preview: Higher ASP kicks in (7/17/14)
Regional Materials – Soft recovery as imbalances ease (7/10/14)
Yanzhou Coal – Awaiting more timely entry point (7/10/14)
Nickel Asia – Tight supply to persist; U/G to BUY (7/10/14)
Contributing analysts HK/CHINA Alexander Latzer (metals, coal, steel) Regional Sector Head INDIA Anubhav Gupta (metals, steel) INDONESIA Isnaputra Iskandar, CFA (metals, coal, cement) PHILIPPINES Ramon Adviento (metals, coal) (Full materials team details on page 2) China and Australia thermal coal prices*
Source: McCloskey. *Qinhuangdao 5,800 kcal/t ex-VAT and Newcastle 6,000 kcal/t FOB.
Aluminum price showing renewed vigor
Source:Bloomberg.
Copper price holding above consensus
Source:Bloomberg.
0255075
100125150175200
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July 22, 2014 2
Regional Materials Sector
Our views on the materials news Metals demand is entering the seasonally slow summer period but copper and zinc market sentiment appears to be rising on improving demand growth and slowing supply. Aluminium prices are rising as well as the decline in inventory indicates supply cuts are working. Overall, consensus metals price expectations appear low for copper and nickel, and EPS forecasts too high for thermal coal and steel in China.
What’s Our View? – Soft recovery amid rising geopolitical risks We see 65% odds for base metal prices to move moderately higher in 2015 by an average of 10%. We see 25% odds for prices to remain volatile but lower if China is stuck in neutral (Muddle Kingdom scenario). We see 10% odds of a strong across-the-board rally in metal prices in 2015 of >20% YoY (excluding upside for nickel, possibly zinc, and aluminium a long shot).
Risks are inventory finance trade abuses in China that would delay but not derail a recovery, and worsening tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine that would adversely impact market sentiment. A trade embargo on Russia would be difficult to enforce and hurt western companies. But it would be positive for prices of oi/gas, nickel, and aluminium.
Our materials ranking (best to worst): nickel, copper, zinc, aluminium, gold, coking coal, thermal coal and steel. Nickel, copper and zinc have good demand and tightening supply. Aluminium has good demand but more supply cuts are needed and risks on that are high in China. Coking coal demand is mixed, i.e. weakening in China but positive in India. Thermal coal and steel are suffering from slowing demand and excess supply. We see gold remaining range bound to the downside as interest rates are expected to move higher in 2015.
Figure 1: Nominal metals prices indexed to 1980
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng.
Figure 2: Copper (USD/lb) Figure 3: Nickel (USD/lb)
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng
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Gold Copper Zinc Aluminum Nickel
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Bloomberg consensus Kim EngForward curve Spot
Regional Materials Team HK/CHINA Alexander Latzer (metals, coal, steel) (852) 2268 0647 [email protected] INDIA Jigar Shah (cement, oil/gas) (91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected] Anubhav Gupta (metals, steel) (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] INDONESIA Isnaputra Iskandar, CFA (metals, coal, cement) (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected] MALAYSIA Lee Yen Ling (steel, building materials) (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] PHILIPPINES Ramon Adviento (metals, coal) (63) 2 849 8845 [email protected] Lovell Sarreal (cement, consumer, media) (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] SINGAPORE Yeak Chee Keong, CFA (oil/gas services, gem technology) (65) 6432 1460 [email protected] THAILAND Sutthichai Kumworachai (coal, energy, oil/gas, petrochemical) (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 [email protected] Surachai Pramualcharoenkit (steel, construction, contractors, automotive) (66) 2658 6300 x 1470 [email protected] VIETNAM Trung Thai (construction, materials, property) (84) 444 55 58 88 x 8180 [email protected]
July 22, 2014 3
Regional Materials Sector
Bottom falling out again on thermal coal prices (-2% last week) (McCloskey). Avoid the sector or for trading accounts buy on dips as market conditions stabilize during the next few months.
China Coal and Shenhua reported coal sales YTD to June that were flat for the former and -3% for the latter YoY pointing to a likely downgrade of volume guidance adding to pricing woes.
What’s Our View?
Weak Chinese coal demand growth in 2014 combined with insufficient supply cuts have put prices in retreat. Chinese power companies have held off on large restocking ahead of the summer period because of weak demand, ample inventories and falling coal prices. We look for prices to stabilize in a few months as power companies re-stock prior to the winter heating season. The situation is worse in the regional market as Indonesia’s coal production is up about 7% YoY (Jan-Jun) amid weak demand growth.
Coal faces challenges to future consumption growth in China as the country prioritizes alternative cleaner energy sources. The share of new power capacity additions in China accounted for by thermal power fell to a new low in 2013 of 37% compared to an average of 85-90% in the mid-1990’s and 55-75% from 1999-2012. The implication is a declining market share for thermal power from a high of about 76% in 2006 to 55% by 2020.
The clear implication has been total coal consumption volumes will increase at a slower rate. We calculate that for the eight-year period from 2013 to 2020 China may only need an incremental 650m tonnes (mt) of raw thermal coal production vs the 1.7b tonnes of raw coal produced for the previous eight years from 2005 to 2012. This implies an annual production requirement of about 100mt from 2014 to 2020, which is less than half the rate of 213mt/yr from 2005 to 2012 to meet demand.
The supply adjustment appears to already be occurring with production of raw coal decreasing by 1% last year and forecast to increase only 1% in 2014 (40,000t). Unfortunately, coal prices remain very soft due to continued negative consumption growth YoY. The comps turn a bit easier during 2H14 and we forecast coal production and consumption in China will each increase 1% for this year. We look for growth to reach 3% YoY in 2015.
Figure 4: Power capacity by source in China (MW) Figure 5: Power capacity by source in China (% share)
Source: CEC, Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng. Source: CEC, Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng.
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During 1H14, thermal coal prices fell 10% YoY in China (Qinhuangdao 5,800kcal) and 15% in the region (Newcastle 6,000kcal). After appearing to flatten in March/May, prices have fallen by nearly 1% per week since (2% last week). Prices are now 9% lower than the 1H14 averages (current prices USD86/t Qinhuangdao and USD68/t Newcastle).
July 22, 2014 4
Regional Materials Sector
LME aluminium price rises to one-year high. The good news is the majority of Chinese smelters are still loss making at current prices, the bad news is most continue to operate (AZ China).
What’s Our View?
The LME aluminium price has risen 12.5% YTD, while the Shanghai price is down 4.3% and has moved to a slight discount vs premium to LME earlier. The shift reflects a tightening supply situation in the West and a slack market in China. We believe the period of rapid capacity additions has peaked in China. Regional cost advantages are also flattening (falling costs in the east relative to low-cost plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia) due to lower coal prices, the exit of high-cost plants, and rising transport costs.
Low aluminium prices over the past two years have resulted in capacity curtailments in China and the West. In China, by 2015 we expect about 5mt of new capacity and 2mt of cuts for a net gain of about 3mt. The real test will be how much production is restarted and comes on line in China as prices move higher. We believe some of the idle capacity is obsolete and not profitable to restart, while others may modernize.
Figure 6: China aluminium production monthly annualized Figure 7: China aluminium production annual forecast
Source: IAI. Source: WMS, IAI, AZ China, Wood Mackenzie, Maybank Kim Eng estimates.
Ex-China, annual aluminium production growth has been negative. We look for the global aluminium market to move into a wider deficit the next few years helping draw down the large inventory stockpile.
Figure 8: World ex-China aluminum prod mo. annualized Figure 9: Global Aluminum supply/demand and price
Source: IAI. Source: WMS, IAI, AZ China, Wood Mackenzie, Maybank Kim Eng estimates.
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We remain cautiously optimistic as higher prices raise the risk of renewed production growth in China. Consumption growth is expected to remain healthy at 6-8%/yr vs production growth slowing from 10% to 5% over the next few years. According to a study by AZ China, most smelters operate at a loss, some on a cash basis. About 80% of China’s smelters (20mnt of cap.) were loss making. The average cash cost in 2Q14 was CNY14,161/t (USD2,284/t or USD1.04/lb), which was much higher than the average market price of CNY13,425/t (USD2,165 or USD0.98/lb).
July 22, 2014 5
Regional Materials Sector
Western banks are reportedly pulling back on financing of metals exports to China after ICBC applied for the right not to settle a letter of credit (AMM). Imports likely to ease further.
Under letters of credit (LOC), the benefit to the seller (in this case the payment for the sale of metals to Chinese buyers) is guaranteed. If ICBC is declining to pay, it means these LOC are no longer a trustworthy payment method. This will complicate matters (i.e. the resumption of normal commodity trade financing) at a time when Western banks, warehouses and insurance companies are arguing over who will take the losses (AMM).
What’s Our View?
We see the credit trade abuses as delaying but not derailing a soft recovery in China next year. We believe trade financing will resume slowly as credit conditions in China become less tight. In this environment, we expect slowing import growth as inventory is drawn to meet demand over the next few months. We see the situation as a natural outcome of credit tightening amid efforts by China’s leaders to restructure the economy. One outcome could be metal moving to LME-registered warehouses.
We have forecast slowing long-term growth rates for China’s metals consumption to 4-6% for copper, 6-8% for aluminium, and 2-4% for steel/coal, which are about 2-3x slower than the peak when metal intensity/GDP was still rising. Despite metals intensity peaking, China’s share of global demand, at about 45-50%, will exert pressure on supply for materials it is undersupplied long term (nickel, copper, bauxite, iron ore).
Figure 10: Gold exports Hong Kong to China falling (kg)* Figure 11: Refined copper trade (‘000t), net imports easing
Source: Bloomberg.*Hong Kong net exports to China in kilograms. Source: China Customs Data.
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July 22, 2014 6
Regional Materials Sector
Share price performance: materials, coal and steel (YTD, 3 months)
Figure 12: Asia region materials stocks YTD Figure 13: Asia region materials stocks past three months
Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 14: Asia region coal stocks YTD Figure 15: Asia region coal stocks past three months
Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg.
-51% -31% -30% -24% -21% -20% -14% -12% -11%
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LynasHaranga
WCCPaladin Energy
FortescueShanshui
IRCSinoma
Yunnan CopperBaotou Rare Earth
CNBMChinalco Mining
Hunan NonferrousRio Tinto
Taiwan CementERA
Jiangxi CopperAnhui ConchSterlite IndsBHP BillitonCR Cement
Atlas MineralsAsia Cement
Aneka TambangZhaojin Mining
Zijin MiningChalco
HongqiaoChina Vanadium
VedantaAmbuja Cement
PanAustIndophile
Hindustan ZincAlumina
Bumi Res. Min.Korea Zinc
ACCChina Moly
VALE IndonesiaUltratech Cement
OZ MineralsNewcrest
NALCOSesa Sterlite
HindalcoPhilexRUSAL
MMGShree Cement
ICEMNickel Asia
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LynasPaladin Energy
WCCFortescue
CR CementERAIRC
Taiwan CementAnhui ConchZijin Mining
CNBMSinoma
Zhaojin MiningSterlite Inds
Baotou Rare EarthBHP Billiton
Chinalco MiningHunan Nonferrous
Rio TintoYunnan Copper
Ambuja CementJiangxi Copper
Aneka TambangAlumina
Asia CementChalco
Atlas MineralsVALE Indonesia
ACCBumi Res. Min.
RUSALNewcrest
Ultratech CementHongqiao
China VanadiumVedanta
OZ MineralsHindustan ZincShree Cement
Korea ZincHindalco
China MolyPhilex
MMGPanAustNALCOICEM
Nickel AsiaSesa Sterlite
Indophile
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Harum Energy
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Shenhua
Indo Tam. Megah
China coal
Banpu pcl
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PT Bukit Asam
Indika Energy
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Harum Energy
Indo Tam. Megah
Southgobi
Banpu pcl
PT Bukit Asam
Indika Energy
Winsway
Adaro
Coal India
July 22, 2014 7
Regional Materials Sector
Figure 16: Asia region steel stocks YTD Figure 17: Asia region steel stocks past three months
Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg.
Metals prices and inventory Figure 18: Copper exchange prices and inventories Figure 19 Aluminium exchange prices and inventories
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 20: Nickel exchange prices and inventories Figure 21: Zinc exchange prices and inventories
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
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Angang
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JFE Holding
Nippon Steel
JSW Steel
Kobe Steel
Steel Authority
Hyundai Hysco
Tata Steel
July 22, 2014 8
Regional Materials Sector
Figure 22: Gold exchange prices Figure 23: Silver exchange prices
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 24: Platinum exchange prices Figure 25: Palladium exchange prices
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
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200
600
1,000
1,400
1,800
2,200
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Pric
e (R
mb
per
gram
)
Pric
e (U
SD p
er o
z)
LME Spot Price (LHS)Shanghai Spot Price (RHS)
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Pric
e (R
mb
per
gram
)
Pric
e (U
SD p
er o
unce
) LME Palladium Price (LHS)Shanghai Spot Price (RHS)
July 22, 2014 9
Regional Materials Sector
China coal inventory and prices, and power data
Figure 26 Thermal coal price Qinhuangdao vs Newcastle* Figure 27: Thermal coal prices in China and Australia*
Source: Bloomberg, McCloskey, Maybank Kim Eng estimates.*Prices are adjusted for coal calorific content and estimated transportation cost for delivery to southern China for comparison purposes.
Source: Bloomberg, McCloskey, Maybank Kim Eng estimates. *China coal price includes 17% VAT basis 5,800 kcal. Australia price is FOC basis 6,000 kcal.
Figure 28: China coal inventory at power plants and total Figure 28: China total raw coal production and YoY change
Source: Bloomberg, McCloskey, Maybank Kim Eng estimates. Source: CCTD, McCloskey.
Figure 30: Monthly power generation and pct. change Figure 31: Power generation by source and YoY change
Source: China NBS. Source: China NBS.
-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%
0255075
100125150175200
Jan-
01Au
g-01
Mar
-02
Oct
-02
May
-03
Dec
-03
Jul-
04Fe
b-05
Sep-
05Ap
r-06
Nov
-06
Jun-
07Ja
n-08
Aug-
08M
ar-0
9O
ct-0
9M
ay-1
0D
ec-1
0Ju
l-11
Feb-
12Se
p-12
Apr-
13N
ov-1
3Ju
n-14
Premium (discount)
(USD/t) Qinhuangdao coal price (LHS)Newcastle coal price (LHS)Qinhuangdao premium (discount)
0255075
100125150175200
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
Jan-
13
Jul-
13
Jan-
14
Jul-
14
Jan-
15
Jul-
15
Jan-
16
USD/t Qinhuangdao coal price Newcastle coal price
Forecast 2H14/15
Current prices: Qinhuangdao 5,800 kcal USD86/t (incl. 17% VAT); Newcastle 6,000 kcal USD68/t (FOB).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan
05Ju
n 05
Nov
05
Apr
06Se
p 06
Feb
07Ju
l 07
Dec
07
May
08
Oct
08
Mar
09
Aug
09Ja
n 10
Jun
10N
ov 1
0Ap
r 11
Sep
11Fe
b 12
Jul 1
2D
ec 1
2M
ay 1
3O
ct 1
3M
ar 1
4
Power plants TotalDays
(30%)(20%)(10%)0%10%20%30%40%50%
050
100150200250300350400
Jan-
03Ju
n-03
Nov
-03
Apr-
04Se
p-04
Feb-
05Ju
l-05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Aug-
07Ja
n-08
Jun-
08N
ov-0
8Ap
r-09
Sep-
09Fe
b-10
Jul-
10D
ec-1
0M
ay-1
1O
ct-1
1M
ar-1
2Au
g-12
Jan-
13Ju
n-13
Nov
-13
Apr-
14
mt Production (LHS)YoY Chg. (RHS) YoY Chg.
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
28
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan&
Feb-
07M
ay-0
7Au
g-07
Nov
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Dec
-08
Apr-
09Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan&
Feb-
10M
ay-1
0Au
g-10
Nov
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11Se
p-11
Dec
-11
Apr-
12Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan&
Feb-
13M
ay-1
3Au
g-13
Nov
-13
Mar
-14
(YoY %) (bn kWh) Monthly power generation (LHS)% YoY (RHS)% MoM (RHS)
(40)(30)(20)(10)
0102030405060
Jan&
Feb-
07M
ay-0
7Au
g-07
Nov
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Dec
-08
Apr-
09Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan&
Feb-
10M
ay-1
0Au
g-10
Nov
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11Se
p-11
Dec
-11
Apr-
12Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan&
Feb-
13M
ay-1
3Au
g-13
Nov
-13
Mar
-14
YoY % Chg. Thermal Hydro Nuclear
July 22, 2014 10
Regional Materials Sector
China steel inventory and prices
Figure 32: Steel market prices in eastern China Figure 33: China company list prices vs market prices
Source: Steelhome. Source: Steelhome.
Figure 34: Coking coal prices China and the region Figure 35: Comparison: imported iron ore vs domestic rebar
Source: Steelhome. Source: Steelhome.
Figure 36: China crude steel production and YoY growth Figure 37: Long-term view of steel prices and input costs
Source: Steelhome Source: Steelhome, Maybank Kim Eng forecasts.
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Jan
04Ju
n 04
Nov
04
Apr
05Se
p 05
Feb
06Ju
l 06
Dec
06
May
07
Oct
07
Mar
08
Aug
08Ja
n 09
Jun
09N
ov 0
9Ap
r 10
Sep
10Fe
b 11
Jul 1
1D
ec 1
1M
ay 1
2O
ct 1
2M
ar 1
3Au
g 13
Jan
14Ju
n 14
Rebar ψ12 Plate 20mmHRC 2.75mm CR sheet 1mmHDG 0.5mmRmb/t
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
Jan
04Ju
n 04
Nov
04
Apr
05Se
p 05
Feb
06Ju
l 06
Dec
06
May
07
Oct
07
Mar
08
Aug
08Ja
n 09
Jun
09N
ov 0
9Ap
r 10
Sep
10Fe
b 11
Jul 1
1D
ec 1
1M
ay 1
2O
ct 1
2M
ar 1
3Au
g 13
Jan
14Ju
n 14
Co. avg. HRC price (VAT excl.)Market price (2.75mm, VAT excl.)Rmb/t
050
100150200250300350400
Jan
07M
ay 0
7Se
p 07
Jan
08M
ay 0
8Se
p 08
Jan
09M
ay 0
9Se
p 09
Jan
10M
ay 1
0Se
p 10
Jan
11M
ay 1
1Se
p 11
Jan
12M
ay 1
2Se
p 12
Jan
13M
ay 1
3Se
p 13
Jan
14M
ay 1
4
Shanxi premium coking coal (ex-VAT)Newcastle hard coking coal (FOB Australia)USD/t
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan
07M
ay 0
7Se
p 07
Jan
08M
ay 0
8Se
p 08
Jan
09M
ay 0
9Se
p 09
Jan
10M
ay 1
0Se
p 10
Jan
11M
ay 1
1Se
p 11
Jan
12M
ay 1
2Se
p 12
Jan
13M
ay 1
3Se
p 13
Jan
14M
ay 1
4
Iron ore (CIF China, 62%, LHS)Rebar price China (VAT incl., RHS)
USD/t CNY/t
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
06M
ay 0
6Se
p 06
Jan
07M
ay 0
7Se
p 07
Jan
08M
ay 0
8Se
p 08
Jan
09M
ay 0
9Se
p 09
Jan
10M
ay 1
0Se
p 10
Jan
11M
ay 1
1Se
p 11
Jan
12M
ay 1
2Se
p 12
Jan
13M
ay 1
3Se
p 13
Jan
14M
ay 1
4
Monthly crude production (LHS)YoY growth (RHS)
YoY chg. mt
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
400 500 600 700 800 900
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300
1Q'0
63Q
'06
1Q'0
73Q
'07
1Q'0
83Q
'08
1Q'0
93Q
'09
1Q'1
03Q
'10
1Q'1
13Q
'11
1Q'1
23Q
'12
1Q'1
33Q
'13
1Q'1
43Q
'14E
1Q'1
5E3Q
'15E
Raw materials cost ex-freight (RHS)China HRC 2.75mm, VAT excl. (LHS)US HRC price (LHS)
USD/t USD/t
July 22, 2014 11
Regional Materials Sector
China metals trade watch (imports/exports in ‘000 t)
Figure 38: Refined copper trade (net imports easing) Figure 39: Copper concentrate trade (remain at high level)
Source: China Customs Data. Source: China Customs Data.
Figure 40: Alumina trade (falling off recent highs) Figure 41: Bauxite trade (large falloff post Indonesia ban)
Source: China Customs Data. Source: China Customs Data.
Figure 42: Refined nickel trade (net imports falling off) Figure 43: Nickel ore trade (imports rising amid high prices)
Source: China Customs Data. Source: China Customs Data.
(400)(350)(300)(250)(200)(150)(100)(50)050
(400) (350) (300) (250) (200) (150) (100) (50) - 50
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
l-10
Sep-
10N
ov-1
0Ja
n-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11Se
p-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep-
12N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13Se
p-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4
import export net export
(450)(400)(350)(300)(250)(200)(150)(100)(50)050
(450) (400) (350) (300) (250) (200) (150) (100) (50) - 50
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
l-10
Sep-
10N
ov-1
0Ja
n-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11Se
p-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep-
12N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13Se
p-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4
import export net export
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
-
200
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
l-10
Sep-
10N
ov-1
0Ja
n-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11Se
p-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep-
12N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13Se
p-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4
import export net export
(8,400)
(7,000)
(5,600)
(4,200)
(2,800)
(1,400)
0
(8,400)
(7,000)
(5,600)
(4,200)
(2,800)
(1,400)
-Ja
n-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10Se
p-10
Nov
-10
Jan-
11M
ar-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
l-11
Sep-
11N
ov-1
1Ja
n-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12Se
p-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep-
13N
ov-1
3Ja
n-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
import export net export
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
10
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
l-10
Sep-
10N
ov-1
0Ja
n-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11Se
p-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep-
12N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13Se
p-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4
import export net export
(8,000)
(7,000)
(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
(8,000)
(7,000)
(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
-
Jan-
08Ap
r-08
Jul-
08O
ct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr-
09Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10Ap
r-10
Jul-
10O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr-
11Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12Ap
r-12
Jul-
12O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr-
13Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14Ap
r-14
import export net export
July 22, 2014 12
Regional Materials Sector
Research Offices
REGIONAL
WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
ONG Seng Yeow Regional Head of Retail Research (65) 6432 1453 [email protected]
Alexander GARTHOFF Institutional Product Manager (852) 2268 0638 [email protected]
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]
Luz LORENZO Philippines (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]
Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (662) 658 1420 [email protected]
JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 [email protected]
Josua PARDEDE Economist / Industry Analyst, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29695 [email protected]
MALAYSIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] • Strategy • Construction & Infrastructure
Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional • Shipping
ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional
Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media
TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property & REITs
LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] • Building Materials • Glove Producers
CHAI Li Shin (603) 2297 8684 [email protected] • Plantation • Construction & Infrastructure
Ivan YAP (603) 2297 8612 [email protected] • Automotive
LEE Cheng Hooi Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694 [email protected]
Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 [email protected]
HONG KONG / CHINA
Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 [email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional
Alexander LATZER (852) 2268 0647 [email protected] • Metals & Mining - Regional
Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] • Consumer
Karen KWAN (852) 2268 0640 [email protected] • Property & REITs
Osbert TK TANG, CFA (86) 21 5096 8370 [email protected] • Transport & Industrials
Ricky WK NG, CFA (852) 2268 0689 [email protected] • Utilities & Renewable Energy
Simon QIAN, CFA (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] • Telecom & Internet
Steven ST CHAN (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] • Banking & Financials - Regional
Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 [email protected] • Technology – Regional
William YANG (852) 2268 0675 [email protected] • Technology – Regional
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected] • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] • Metal & Mining • Capital Goods • Property
Urmil SHAH (91) 22 6623 2606 [email protected] • Technology • Media
SINGAPORE
NG Wee Siang Head of Research (65) 6432 1467 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected] • SMID Caps – Regional • Technology & Manufacturing • Telcos • Consumer
Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected] • Property Developers
ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 [email protected] • S-REITs
YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460 [email protected] • Offshore & Marine
Derrick HENG (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] • Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)
WEI Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected] • Commodity • Logistics • S-chips
John CHEONG (65) 6432 1461 [email protected] • Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare
TRUONG Thanh Hang (65) 6432 1451 [email protected] • Small & Mid Caps
INDONESIA
Wilianto IE Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] • Strategy
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 2953 0785 [email protected] • Property
Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1136 [email protected] • Consumer • Poultry
Isnaputra ISKANDAR (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected] • Metals & Mining • Cement
Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] • Infrastructure • Construction • Transport
Janni ASMAN (62) 21 2953 0784 [email protected] • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail
PHILIPPINES
Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] • Strategy
Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] • Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos
Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] • Consumer • Media • Cement
Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] • Conglomerates • Property • Gaming • Ports/ Logistics
Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] • Banks • Construction
Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845 [email protected] • Mining
THAILAND
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Consumer / Materials
Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] • Financial Services
Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] • Real Estate
Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 [email protected] • Services Sector
Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 [email protected]
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected] • Strategy
Padon VANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategy
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] • Media • Commerce
Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] • Energy • Petrochem
Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] • Property
Woraphon WIROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap
Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected] • Electronics VIETNAM LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified • Utilities
THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8180 [email protected] • Real Estate • Construction • Materials
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking
NGUYEN Trung Hoa, Dy Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8088 [email protected] • Macro • Steel • Real estate
TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208 [email protected] • Technology • Utilities • Construction
TRUONG Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087 [email protected] • Rubber plantation • Tyres and Tubes • Oil&Gas
PHAM Nhat Bich (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083 [email protected] • Consumer • Manufacturing • Fishery
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084 [email protected] • Port operation • Pharmaceutical • Food & Beverage
July 22, 2014 13
Regional Materials Sector
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
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MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
US
This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations.
UK
This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
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Regional Materials Sector
Disclosure of Interest Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 22 July 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.
As of 22 July 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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Regional Materials Sector
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