REGIONAL HAZEProgress Report

IASC MeetingClovis, California ♦ April 1-2, 2007Air Resources Board

California Environmental Protection Agency

CALIFORNIA CLASS 1 AREAS1. Redwood National Park2. Marble Mountain Wilderness3. Lava Beds National Monument 4. South Warner Wilderness5. Thousand Lakes Wilderness6. Lassen Volcanic National Park7. Caribou Wilderness8. Yolla Bolly Middle Eel Wilderness9. Point Reyes National Seashore

10. Ventana Wilderness11. Pinnacles National Monument 12. Desolation Wilderness13. Mokelumne Wilderness14. Emigrant Wilderness15. Hoover Wilderness16. Yosemite National Park 17. Ansel Adams Wilderness18. Kaiser Wilderness 19. John Muir Wilderness20. Kings Canyon National Park21. Sequoia National Park22. Dome Land Wilderness23. San Rafael Wilderness24. San Gabriel Wilderness 25. Cucamonga Wilderness26. San Gorgonio Wilderness27. San Jacinto Wilderness28. Joshua Tree National Park29. Agua Tibia

Notes: The 17 IMPROVE monitors provide pollutant concentration measurements in or near California’s 29 Class 1 areas, so some data is the same for more than one Class 1 area in California. There are 156 Class 1 Areas in the United States.

OVERVIEW

• RH SIP Requirements and Progress• What Pollutants Drive Haze in California• Ability to Control Sources of Pollutant Species• California Strategy for Initial Planning Period• California and National Issues

Statewide Average

Contribution to Light Extinction on Worst Haze

Days

BASIC REQUIREMENTSD

eciv

iew

s

2004

20642018

Best Day Baseline Conditions

Worst Day BaselineUniform Glide Path

RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018D

eciv

iew

s

2064

Best Day Baseline Conditions

Worst Day BaselineUniform Glide Path

RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018

2064

Best Day Baseline Conditions (must not be degraded)

Worst Day BaselineUniform Glide Path

Worst Days Average for Natural Conditions

RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018

• Calculate Best and Worst Days in Deciviews• Determine 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals in Deciviews• “Long Term Strategy” for reaching 2018 RPGs• BART Requirement (Best Available Retrofit Technology)• Consultation with Other States / Federal Land Managers• Public Webcast Workshop scheduled June 10, 2008• Submission to U.S. EPA after Public Hearing (July 2008)• Mid-Course Reviews and SIP Updates every 10 years

MONITOR DATA & DECIVIEWS

• Species Mass Light Extinction Deciview Value• Haze Algorithm II calculates light extinction• Deciview is the natural logarithm of light extinction

• As Haze Species concentration increases, Light Extinction increases, Visibility worsens, Deciview number increases

• Reduce Haze Species, Deciview number decreases, clearer air with higher range of visibility

• Bottom line: reduce haze species “drivers” of worst day haze– Determine drivers at each IMPROVE monitor (Class 1 Area) and

figure out where sources are

– Model to look back at emissions and look forward to 2018

Haze Algorithm Tutorial: Measuring Visibility1. Haze pollutants are particles that have the ability to absorb and reflect light radiation; both actions extinguish light and

decrease visibility. Particle mass, humidity, and temperature influence the amount of light extinction caused by haze species. Rayleigh scattering is affected by elevation and temperature.

2. The “HAZE ALGORITHM” uses Species Mass to determine Light Extinction which is converted to a Deciview Value.

3. Every third day, 24-hour mass measurements are made of all the haze species collected at each IMPROVE monitor and the Haze Algorithm is used to deliver individual species and total species Light Extinction in inverse megameters (Mm -1).

4. The Haze Algorithm for calculating Light Extinction (bext) weights the Species Mass (ug/m3) measured at the IMPROVE monitors using particle size, humidity, and elevation as follows:

bSulfate = 2.2 x fS(RH) x [small SO4] + 4.8 x fL(RH) x [large SO4] bNitrate = 2.4 x fS(RH) x [small NO3] + 5.1 x fL(RH) x [large NO3] bOrganic Material Carbon = 2.8 x [Small OM] + 6.1 x [Large OM] bElemental Carbon = 10 x [EC] bFine Soil = 1 x [Fine Soil] bSea Salt = 1.7 x fSS(RH) [Sea salt]

bCoarse Mass = 0.6 x [CM] bRayleigh = (Site Specific factor, related to elevation, ranging from 7+ to 11+ in California)

bNitric Oxide gas= 0.33 x [NO2 (ppb)] (not measured at most IMPROVE sites.)The sum of the weighted extinction values gives the total daily extinction (Total bext) for each day of measurement:

Total bext = bSulfate + bNitrate + bEC +bOMC + bSoil + bCM + bSS + bRay + bNO2

5. The deciview scale was created to describe the total light extinction capability of all haze species in the ambient air at a given time at a given location. The Deciview Value (dv) is the natural logarithm of the total calculated light extinction on each day of measurement. Mass measurements for all species must be available to calculate the dv for a given day.

Deciview Value (dv) = 10 ln (Total bext / 10)6. Each year, the daily Deciview Values are ranked for the entire year and the 20% highest days are averaged to obtain the

“Worst Day” deciview average for that year. The average Worst Day Deciview Value for each of the baseline years are then averaged to get the Baseline “Worst Day” Deciview Value for the monitor. The same process is undertaken to calculate the 20% “Best Day” deciview average using the lowest ranking days (cleanest, best visibility) for the baseline.

7. These “Worst Day” and “Best Day” average Deciview levels are used to develop the Long-Term Strategy and Reasonable Progress Goals for the Regional Haze SIP.

GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW

• Far Northern California (Inland)-organics, sulfates, nitrates

• Sierra Nevada Mountains-organics, sulfates, nitrates

• Coastal Sub-Units -sea salt, sulfate, nitrate, organics

• Southern California-nitrates, organics, sulfates

• Closest Neighbor Class 1 Areas-Arizona (Grand Canyon…)-Oregon (Kalmiopsis…)-Nevada (only Jarbridge)

California C1A

Out-of-State C1A

IMPROVE monitor

MONITOR ASSIGNMENTSNORTHERN CALIFORNIA

TRIN (1014 m) Trinity Alps Marble Mountain Wilderness; Yolla Bolly-Middle Eel Wilderness

LABE (1460 m) Lava Beds Lava Beds National Monument, South Warner Wilderness

LAVO (1733 m) Lassen Volcanic Lassen Volcanic National Park, Caribou Wilderness, Thousand Lakes Wilderness

SIERRA CALIFORNIA

BLIS (2131 m) Bliss State Park Desolation Wilderness, Mokelumne Wilderness

HOOV (2561 m) Hoover Hoover Wilderness

YOSE (1603 m) Yosemite Yosemite National Park, Emigrant Wilderness

KAIS (2598 m) Kaiser Kaiser Wilderness, Ansel Adams Wilderness, John Muir Wilderness

SEQU (519 m) Sequoia Sequoia National Park, Kings Canyon National Park

DOME (927 m) Dome Lands Dome Lands Wilderness

COASTAL CALIFORNIA

REDW* (244 m) Redwood Redwood National Park

PORE (97 m) Point Reyes Point Reyes National Seashore

PINN (302 m) Pinnacles Pinnacles Wilderness, Ventana Wilderness

RAFA (957 m) San Rafael San Rafael Wilderness

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

SAGA* (1791 m) San Gabriel San Gabriel Wilderness, Cucamonga Wilderness

SAGO (1726 m) San Gorgonio San Gorgonio Wilderness, San Jacinto Wilderness

AGTI* (508 m) Agua Tibia Agua Tibia

JOSH (1235 m) Joshua Tree Joshua Tree National Park

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

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Northern CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

Soil

Sea SaltOrganic Carbon

Elemental Carbon

Coarse MassSulfates

Nitrates

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LABE1 LAVO1 TRIN1

Northern CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

• TOTAL light extinction ~ 10 times higher on Worst Days • Organic Carbon (OC) clearly drives Worst Days• Wildfires, Transportation Corridors, Stationary Sources

SIERRA CALIFORNIA

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BLIS1 DOME1 HOOV1 KAIS1 SEQU1 YOSE1

Sierra CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

Soil

Sea SaltOrganic Carbon

Elemental Carbon

Coarse MassSulfates

Nitrates

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BLIS1 DOME1 HOOV1 KAIS1 SEQU1 YOSE1

Sierra CA area monitors

Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

Soil

Sea Salt

Organic Carbon

Elemental CarbonCoarse Mass

Sulfates

Nitrates

• TOTAL light extinction ~ 6-12 x higher on Worst Days • Organic Carbon or Nitrates drive worst days• Wildfires and Biogenics (OC), Urban Mix (nitrates/sulfates)• Coarse Mass and Fine Soil from wind events• Monitor Elevation (exposure to inversions, long-range transport)

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

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AGTI1 JOSH1 SAGA1 SAGO1

Southern CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

SoilSea SaltOrganic carbonElemental CarbonCoarse massSulfatesNitrates

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Southern CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

Soil

Sea SaltOrganic Carbon

Elemental Carbon

Coarse MassSulfates

Nitrates

• TOTAL light extinction ~ 6-12 x higher on Worst Days • Nitrates drive worst days; sulfates and organics also have roles• Mobile sources (on and off-road) key component year-round• Coarse Mass and Fine Soil from natural events• Monitor Elevation (exposure to inversions, long-range transport)

COASTAL CALIFORNIA

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PINN1 PORE1 RAFA1 REDW1

Coastal CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

SoiSea Salt

Organic CarbonElemental CarbonCoarse Mass

SulfatesNitrates

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PINN1 PORE1 RAFA1 REDW1

Coastal CA Area Monitors

Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)

SoilSea SaltOrganic Carbon

Elemental CarbonCoarse MassSulfatesNitrates

• TOTAL light extinction ~ 4-7 x higher on Worst Days • Sea Salt and Sulfates more influence than elsewhere• Affected by marine commercial shipping• Onshore – Offshore wind patterns; different source

attribution for same haze species

EMISSIONS AND SOURCES

• California Statewide inventory of haze precursors (WRAP 2002c in Tons per Year)

• Organic Carbon sources primarily natural• Nitrate sources primarily anthropogenic• Does not include marine commercial vessel emissions

2002c

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NOx SO2 VOC NH3 PMCoarse

OC EC OtherPMFine

Natural

Anthropogenic

OTHER INFLUENCES

TRANSPORT

“Controllable vs.

Uncontrollable”Out-of-State In-State

Anthropogenic ~20%* ~35%*

Natural ~15%* ~30%*

* Numbers are rounded estimates of haze pollutant source origin based on source attribution modeling

California RH SIP focuses on anthropogenic sources under state or local control

STRATEGY FOR 2018

population growth and climate change…

urban/wildland interface pressures…

new NAAQS standards…

California “Long-Term” Strategy for Initial Planning Period– On-the-Books Ozone/PM Controls Modeled to give Reasonable

Progress Goals for 2018– BART Reductions minimal due to existing controls– Adjust at Mid-Course Review with more data and new post-2004

controls

CALIFORNIA’s BART PROCESS

PRELIMINARY REASONABLE PROGRESS

Baseline Modeling Results:

Visibility improves at all California Class 1 Areas

MID-COURSE REVIEW

• Future Program Benefits from NAAQS, SAAQS, Climate Change, Goods Movement, Diesel Risk Reduction Programs

– Same pollutants involved– Same high-emitting source categories (refineries,

power plants, cement plants, large boilers)

• Scheduled for 2012-2013 Time Frame– Emissions Reductions compared to Monitoring Data– Natural Conditions Assessment– May Adjust Reasonable Progress Goals

• RH SIP as Learning Experience– BART reductions await final modeling– Regional cooperation essential– Continued consultation valuable

• Controllable vs. Uncontrollable Sources– Wildfires, Dust Storms, and other Natural Events– Pacific Shipping / Oceanic Atmospheric Chemistry– Jet Stream Sources– International Transport (Mexico, Canada, Asia)– Organic Aerosols: Biogenic Emissions v. Anthropogenic VOCs

• Achieving Natural Conditions– Will EPA continue to Fund Monitoring & Technical Support?– Will metrics change for calculating Natural Conditions or visibility?– Will it take until the 23rd Century?

PENDING CONCERNSNASA Photo October 2007

OREGON

CALIFORNIA

Biscuit Fire Plume

Umpqua Complex Fire Plume

“SEEING” WILDFIRE PLUMES

Inventory and Modeling for “Baseline” Period:

2002 “Base Year” was very bad year for western wildfire emissions

Analyzing Monitoring Data for “Natural Conditions” analysis:

Canoe and Honey Fires not “seen” by Redwood but measurable at Point Reyes and Trinity Alps monitors

REDW

PORE

TRIN

“MEASURING” SMOKE IMPACTS

John Muir Wilderness WebcamBig Creek Fire 13 miles SW8/15 - 8/29/1994picture taken at 3:00 PM on 8/27/1994

Exact same location:Scenic view picture takenat 3:00 PM on 9/21/1994

• Need local knowledge and satellite photos– No IMPROVE monitors for John Muir Wilderness in 1994

– Neither YOSE > 150 miles NW, nor SEQU >50 miles SW saw OC change

October 25, 2003

From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002800/a002842/

Southern California Fires – October 2003

Photo of California wildfires from space, after the winds shifted toward Arizona and Nevada on October 29, 2003.

Photo credit: NASA

REGIONAL “DUST” EVENTS“Tax Day” Asian Windfall: April 16, 2001

Santa Ana Winds: Autumn and early winter

Sundowners & Valley transport?

coastal & southern el. 507 m

AG

SJ

SGO

SR

CUSGAJT

NASA image: February 9, 2002

2000 - 2004 Source Contribution: Lava Bed NP

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2000 - 2004 Dust Contribution: Yosemite NP

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2000 - 2004 Dust Contribution: San Rafael

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2000 - 2004 Dust Contribution: Agua Tibia

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northern el. 1469 m

Sierrael. 1615 m

coastalel. 953 m

CARB Contacts: Tina Suarez-Murias csuarezm@arb.ca.govSylvia Zulawnick szulawni@arb.ca.gov

Prepared by U.S. Census Bureau

One dot = 7500 people

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Websites for Regional Haze:ARB – www.arb.ca.gov/planning/reghaze/reghaze.htmWRAP – www.wrapair.orgTSS – http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/

YOSE (Yosemite):Yosemite National ParkEmigrant Wilderness

Millenium Fireworks

Monitoring Data converted to Light Extinction showing Best & Worst Days for 2000-2004 Basellne Period

Annual Worst Days – Light Extinction Worst Days Monthly Average - 2002

PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4-1-08

YOSE (Yosemite):Yosemite National ParkEmigrant Wilderness

PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4-1-08

YOSE at Turtleback Dome, 1 mile west of Tunnel View

YOSE (Yosemite):Yosemite National ParkEmigrant Wilderness

Organic Carbon

Sulfates

Nitrates

Source regions 2018 “On-the-Books Scenario Modeling:

PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4-1-08

9-28-82 10-9-82