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RISK ASSESMENT AND MANAGEMENT

OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

Prepared by:

Sutikno

Reference1. Nott, J. 2006.Extreem Events. A Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment.

Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.

2. Abbott. P.2004. Natural Disaster. McGraw Hill. New York.

3. Bryan, E. 2005. Natural Hazard. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.

4. Smith K. 1996. Environmental Hazard. Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. Routledge. New York.

5. I Wayan SEngara; Enghan K. Kertapati; Khrisna S. Pribadi.2004. Penegembangan Model Kajian Singkat Bencana Gempa untuk Kota-Kota di Indonesia. Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Rekayasa II. Yogyarta. PIST.

6. Kirbani. S.B.2009. Seismic Hazard, Their Mapping and Management in Indonesia. Lecture note on Geo-information for Spatial Planning and Risk Management. Yogyakarta Gadjah Mada University-ITC The Netherlands.

7. Glade, T; Anderson, M; Crozier, M.J. (ed), 2006. Landslide Hazard and Risk. John Wiley & Sons.

8. Iftekhar Ahmed K. 2006. Risk Management. Workshop: Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction for City and Damages and Loss Estimation. September 2006. Yogyakarta. ADPC, PSBA, SNV.

9. Teddy Boon. 2006. Earthquake Hazard, Risk Assessment. Workshop: Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction for City and Damages and Loss Estimation. September 2006. Yogyakarta. ADPC, PSBA, SNV.

10. Itc module

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REVIEW TERMINOLOGY OF

HAZARD, RISK, DISASTER1. Hazard:

• is an inescapable part of life.

• is as a naturally occurring or human induced process or event with potentially to create loss, i.e. a general sources of danger.

• as a potential threat to humans and their welfare.

2. Risk:• is some time taken as synonym with hazard but risk has

the additional implication of the chance of a particular hazard actually occurring

• as the probability of specific hazard occurrence

3. Disaster:• when large numbers of people exposed to hazard are

killed, injured or damaged;

• As the realization of hazard.

RISK

1. Risk: • a measure of the probability and severity of loss to

the element at risk, usually expressed for unit area, object, or activity, over a specified period of time;

2. Risk analysis: • the overall process involving scoping, hazard and

identification and risk estimation.

3. Risk assessment: • the combination processes of risk analysis and risk

evaluation, leading to the stage where personal judgments and treatment decision can be rationally made

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RISK

4. Risk management:

• the process of developing and applying policies,

procedure and practices to the tasks of

assessment, monitoring, communication and

treatment of risk.

5. Specific risk:

• hazard probability x vulnerability for a given

elements at risk and/or for a given type of

process.

RISK

6. Tolerable risk: • level of risk that society is prepared to live with

because there are net benefits in doing so, as long as that risk is monitored and controlled and action is taken to reduce it.

7. Total risk: • the expected consequences (loss) resulting from

the level of hazard in a place, over a specified time period. It depends on not only on the different hazardous process involved but also on elements at risk and their vulnerability

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VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability:

• the expected degree of loss experienced by

the elements at risk for a a given magnitude

of hazard.

GENERIC HAZARD-RISK EQUATION

Risk = (hazard x vulnerability x element at risk

Element at risk:

1) physical

2) facilities

3) economic

4) societal

5) environmental

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Quantification of Risk

• Three essential components to

quantification of hazard:1) Hazard occurrence probability (p)

2) Element at risk

3) Expected loss (L)

Risk Assessment

• It is the overall process of identifying and

analyzing risk.

• The process of characterizing hazard

within risk area, analyzing them for their

potential mishap consequences and

probabilities of occurrence and combining

the two estimate to reach a risk ranking

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Risk as function of hazard, loss and

preparedness

Risk =Hazard (probability) x Loss (expected)

preparedness (loss mitigation)

1) Greater the hazard probability, greater the risk

2) Greater the loss, greater the risk

3) Greater the preparedness or capacity of community,

lesser the risk.

Methodology for risk assessment1) Define the geographic area to be studied.

2) Identify the type and amount of data needed to complete the risk assessment

3) Identify the potential hazards within the risk area.

4) Identify the vulnerability.

5) Prepare an inventory of element at risk

6) Apply hazard specific damage quantitatively or rank potential damage qualitatively.

7) Apply loss function to damage results to estimate level of financial, personal, or property losses quantitatively or rank potential losses qualitatively.

RISK MAPPING

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Varying Scale of Hazard, Risk and Disaster

the Threats can be recognized

1. Hazard to people:• death, injury, disease, stress

2. Hazard to goods:• property damage, economic loss;

3. Hazard to environment:• loss of flora and fauna, pollution, loss of amenity

DISASTER: LOCAL, REGIONAL, GLOBAL

2. TYPOLOGY OF HAZARD AND DISATER

1. Natural Geo-hazard1. Geologic hazard

2. Geomorphologic hazard

1. Hydro-meteorological hazard1. Flood

2. Drought

3. Typhoon

2. Biologic hazard

3. Technological hazard (Anthropogenic)

ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS

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DISASTER

1. Generally results from the interaction, in time and space, between the physical exposure to hazardous process and a vulnerable human population.

2. Criteria of significant disaster (CRED)• Number of death per event 100 or more;

• Significant damage: 1 per cent or more of the total GNP

• Affected people: 1 per cent or more of the total national population.

Reason why disaster impact is growing

1. Population growth

2. Land pressure

3. Urbanization

4. Inequality

5. Climate change

6. Political change

7. Economic growth

8. Technological innovation

9. Social expectations

10. Global interdependence

HOW TO REDUCE THE RISK

• NEED RISK ASSESSEMENT

• NEED RISK MANAGEMENT

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Relation between Hazard, Probability and

Risk

Disaster Risk

• The probability that a

community’s structure

or geographic area is

to be damaged or

disrupted by the impact

of a particular hazard,

on account of their

nature, construction,

and proximity to a

hazardous area

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Risk reduction study

Study Area

Physical phenomena Cultural phemena Sosekbud

H1,H2, H3, H4…….Hn

R1,R2, R3, R4, …..Rn

Hazard multi-risk

V1, V2, V3, V4, …..Vn

Local comunity

Local wisdom

Capacity

Coordination sistem disaster risk reductin

Elements at Risk

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Vulnerability

“... a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, and environmental factors which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard“ (UNDP, 2004)

“... the likelihood of injury, death, loss, disruption of livelihood or other harm in an extreme event, and/or unusual difficulties in recovering from such effects“(Wisner, 2002)

ELEMENTS AT RISK:

Human, Houses, Water Supplies, Social Group and

Network, Crops, Livestock, Savings, Jobs, Natural

Environment

VULNERABLE CONDITIONS:

1) ECONOMIC: fragile livelihoods; no credit and saving

facilities

2) NATURAL: dependence on very few natural resources

3) CONSTRUCTED: structural design; location of houses on

an stable slope

4) INDIVIDUAL: lack of skills or knowledge; lacking opprotunity

due to gender; being old or very young; living with HIV or

AIDS

5) SOCIAL: disorganized or fragmented society; bad

leadership

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Capacity

• kombinasi dari segala

kemampuan dan

sumberdaya yang ada di

dalam komunitas,

masyarakat, atau

organisasi yang dapat

menurunkan tingkat risiko

atau dampak suatu

bencana (UNISDR, 2002).

• Capacities are those

positive condition or

abilities which increase a

community’s ability to deal

with hazards.

9.4. Coping Capacity

• The means by which people or

organizations use available resources and

abilities to face adverse consequences that

could lead to a disaster. In general, this

involves managing resources, both in

normal times as well as during crises or

adverse conditions.

• The strengthening of coping capacities

usually builds resilience to withstand the

effects of natural and human-induced

hazards.

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9.5. Capacity Building

• Efforts aimed to develop human skills

or societal infrastructures within a

community or organization needed to

reduce the level of risk.

• In extended understanding, capacity

building also includes development of

institutional, financial, political and

other resources, such as technology at

different levels and sectors of the

society.

10.Disaster Risk Management

A broad range of activities

designed to:

• Prevent the loss of lives

• Minimize human suffering

• Inform the public and

authorities of risk

• Minimize property damage

and economic loss

• Speed up the recovery

process

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Prevention

• Measures taken to

avert a disaster

from occurring, if

possible (to

impede a hazard

so that it does not

have any harmful

effects).

10.2.Mitigation

• Measures taken

prior to the impact

of a disaster to

minimize its effects

(sometimes

referred to as

structural and non-

structural

measures).

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Preparedness

• Measures taken

in anticipation of a

disaster to ensure

that appropriate

and effective

actions are taken

in the aftermath.

Relief

• Measures that

are required in

search and

rescue of

survivors, as well

to meet the basic

needs for shelter,

water, food and

health care.

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10.5. Recovery

• The process

undertaken by a

disaster-affected

community to fully

restore itself to

pre-disaster level

of functioning.

10.6.Rehabilitation

Actions taken in the

aftermath of a disaster

to:

• assist victims to repair

their dwellings;

• re-establish essential

services;

• revive key economic

and social activities

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Reconstruction

• Permanent measures

to repair or replace

damaged dwellings

and infrastructure and

to set the economy

back on course.

INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT 1

Key Question on Hazard,

Vulnerability, and Capacity

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Key questions to Hazard

Is there any phenomenon to environmental degradation?

What is the level of the occurrence?

Where is the location?

Who are suffered from the phenomena?

When is the phenomena occurred?

How often is the phenomena occurred?

How to solve the problem?

Who will take the responsibility?

Key question to Vulnerability

Who or what vulnerable to the

impacts of hazard?

Where or when them vulnerable?

What social, physical and

environmental factors make them

vulnerable?

How vulnerable are they?

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Key question to Capacity

What are the variables to measure

it?

Who have the capacity?

How are the mechanism?

Who are responsible for it?

How to increase the capacity?

3. HAZARD, RISK ASSESSMENT

OF

EARTHQUAKE

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1. EARTHQUAKE: WHAT IS IT?1) The sudden shaking of the earth in response to the rocks

movement such as plate tectonic movement, fault or

volcanic activity

2) Shaking of the ground caused by sudden release of energy

storing in the rocks beneath earth surface

2. EARTHQUAKE TYPES: 1) Tectonic

2) Volcanic

3) Mass-movement (collapsing)

4) Meteoric hitting

HOW AND WHERE EARTHQUAKE OCCURED

1. Earthquake occurred:

Sudden release of energy

2. Location of energy releasing as focus of the earthquake:

Collision of the plate tectonics

Fault zones

Volcanic activity

3. Earthquake zones

ring of fire

plate tectonic collision’s zone

Indonesia (map of Indonesia)

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Geographic Distribution

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DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKE

SEISMICITY OF INDONESIA

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Some characteristics of earthquake

1) Usually no warning, except for

secondary shocks.

2) Speed of onset usually sudden.

3) Earthquake-prone areas are generally

well defined and well known.

4) Major effect arise from land movement,

etc.

5) Many secondary hazards.

EARTHQUAKE DATA OF THE EARTH

Magnitude (RS) Frequency

Number/year

Criteria

> 8,5 0,3 very huge

8-8,4 1

7,5-7,9 3

7-7,4 15 huge

6-6,9 56

6-6,5 210 strong

5-5,9 800 medium

4-4,9 6.200 light

3-3,9 49.000 small

2-2,9 (0-1,9) 350.000 (3.000.000) very small

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Classification of earthquake

according to the magnitude

1) under 5 : small

2) 5-6 : moderate

3) 6-7 : large

4) 7-7.8 : major

5) > 7.8 : great

Damage caused by ground shaking

Depend on:

1) Size : magnitude and intensity

2) Depth

3) Attenuation

4) Duration

5) The site response

Relate to the traveling distance

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TYPES OF EARTHQUAKE WAVE:

1. Surface wave:

• traveling on the earth surface

2. Body wave:

• Traveling through Earth’s interior, direct

from hypocenter

3. Wave type:

• Primary wave (P)

• Secondary wave (S)

• Love wave

• Raleigh wave

EARTHQUAKE’S WAVE TYPES

1. Primary wave

2. Secondary wave

3. Love wave

4. Raleigh wave

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Seismic waves

• Body waves– P-Waves

• Primary, Compressional, Longitudinal. Fast. Trough all media (gas, liquid, solid)

– S-Wave• Secondary, Shear,

Transverse. Only solids

• Surface waves– Love wave

• Similar to S-waves

– Rayleigh wave• “Surface ripples” Interaction P

and S waves.

IMPACTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE

1. Tsunami

2. Liquefaction

3. Landslide

4. Fire

5. Flood

6. Permanent displacement of the land

surface (FAULT)

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Directly related to crustal movement1. Ground shaking

2. Fault rupture

Indirect effects of earthquakes 3. Tsunamis

4. Seiches

5. Avalanches,

6. Land & mud slides,

7. Differential ground settlement,

8. Soil liquefaction.

9. Floods from dam and levee failures.

10. Fires, etc

Causes of earthquake damage

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Earthquake damage

Locating earthquakes

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Magnitude & Intensity

1. 2 ways of measuring strength of an earthquake:

• Magnitude: amount of energy released - "Small earthquakes make small waves, big earthquakes make big waves"

• Intensity: amount of damage, reaction of people

2. Magnitude scales:• Local magnitude scale (ML) (Richter scale)

• Surface wave magnitude scale (Ms)

• Body wave magnitude scale (Mb)

• Moment magnitude scale (Mw) (seismic motion)

What does the Richter Scale

Mean?

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Intensity of an earthquake (1)

1. Based on:• Observations of damaged structures

• Presence of secondary effects

• Degree to which quake was felt by individuals

2. Easy to determine in urban area, difficult in rural area

3. Most commonly used:• Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI)

• MSK-64 (Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik)

• EMS-98(European Macroseismic Scale)

I. Instrumental Detected only by seismographs

II. Feeble Noticed only by sensitive people.

III. Slight Resembling vibrations caused by heavy traffic.

IV. Moderate Felt by people walking; rocking of free standing objects.

V. Rather strong Sleepers awakened and bells ring.

VI. Strong Trees sway, some damage from overturning and falling objects.

VII. Very strong General alarm, cracking of walls.

VIII. Destructive Chimneys fall and there is some damage to buildings.

IX. Ruinous Ground begins to crack, houses begin to collapse and pipes break.

X. Disastrous Ground badly cracked and many buildings are destroyed.There are some landslides.

XI. Very Disastrous Few buildings remain standing; bridges and railways destroyed;water, gas, electricity and telephones out of action.

XII. Catastrophic Total destruction; objects are thrown into the air, much heaving,shaking and distortion of the ground.

Modified Mercalli scale

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Seismic risk analysis

1. Macro seismic hazard analysis• Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA)

• Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)

2. Micro seismic hazard analysis• Soft ground effects analysis

• Liquefaction analysis

3. Vulnerability and risk analysis• Building vulnerability, vulnerability curves

• RADIUS, HAZUS approach

• Case studies

Micro seismic hazard analysis

1. Site effects• Soft ground effects

• Liquefaction

• Topographic effect

2. Methods for estimating site effects:• Soft ground effects:

– Numerical method: 1D response analysis (Shake)

– Nakamura’s or H/V method

• Liquefaction analysis

– “Simplified procedure” by Seed and Idriss

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How do seismic waves shake the

ground? 1) (Soft) soil overlying hard rock amplifies the

seismic signal in almost all cases

2) The amount of amplification depends on• Soil thickness

• Soil characteristics (stiffness, unit weight)

• Earthquake type (magnitude, hypocentre distance)

3) The largest amplification occurs when the soil starts to resonate under the influence of the seismic signal

4) Also in certain topographic situation there can be a major amplification

How do seismic waves affect

buildings and structures?1. Horizontal movements

(accelerations) of the ground surface are being transferred to the building

2. These horizontal accelerations create forces on a building or structure

3. Accelerations are largest when the building start to resonate

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Natural frequency of buildings1) Buildings tend to have

lower natural frequencies

when they are: • Either heavier (more mass)

• Or more flexible (that is less

stiff).

2) One of the main things that

affect the stiffness of a

building is its height.• Taller buildings tend to be

more flexible, so they tend to

have lower natural frequencies

compared to shorter buildings.

Type of object or structure Natural frequency (Hz)

One-story buildings 10

3-4 story buildings 2

Tall buildings 0.5 – 1.0

High-rise buildings 0.17

What do we use to quantify

the expected ground motion?1) Using peak ground acceleration

• Acceleration and force are in direct proportion

• Peak acceleration often correspond to high frequencies, which are out of range of the natural frequencies of most structures

2) Response spectra analysis• Current standard method for ground response

analysis

• Maximum ground response (amplification) for different frequencies

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Example of response spectrum

CCALA NS - Profile N. BrasiliaSa for 5% damping

Sp

ectr

al A

ccele

ratio

n (g

)

Per iod (sec)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0.01 100.1 1

Period (s)

Sp

ectr

al a

cce

lera

tion

(g)

1D ground response analysis

Assumptions• Inclined seismic rays are reflected to a near-vertical

direction, because of decrease in velocities of surface deposits

• All boundaries are horizontal

• Response of the soil deposit is caused by Shear waves propagating vertically from the underlying bedrock

• Soil and bedrock are assumed to extend infinitely in the horizontal direction (half-sphere)

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How do we do microzonation?1. Create a continuous (3D) ground model in GIS using

any available surface and subsurface information:• Boreholes, SPT’s

• Geophysical profiles (VES, refraction)

• (Engineering) Geological maps

• Any other a-priori geological knowledge of the “model builder”

2. Calculate seismic response for every surface point

on the continuous layer model (using SHAKE)

3. Visualize spatial variation of seismic response over

the entire modeled area using GIS

4. Classify seismic response analyses into areas with

different hazard levels (e.g. exceeding design

acceleration levels)

Soil amplificationSurface Ground Amplification

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Hard Rock Soft Rock Medium Soil Soft Soil

Rock/Soil Type

Am

plif

icat

ion

Fac

tor

• Classification or zoning of ground conditions is

important in the earthquake damage estimation process

because ground conditions directly affect seismic

amplification of ground shaking.

• Radius adopts a simple classification, which with 4

classes with corresponding amplification factors.

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Building classes & vulnerability curves

Building Damage Curve

0

20

40

60

80

100

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MMI

Dam

age R

ate

(%

)

RES1

RES2

RES3

RES4

EDU1

EDU2

MED1

MED2

COM

IND

Vulnerability functions define the relation between seismic intensity and damage rate for structural types are determined as the function of acceleration/MMI based on damage observed during past sample earthquakes.

Casualties

• Casualties can be

calculated from the

number of damaged

buildings

• The number of people

inside buildings during

the day and night is

usually not the same

since the ratio of

usage of buildings is

different.

Occupants at Time of Collapse

Trapped Untrapped

Don't Die InstantlyDie Instantly

Die Later Don't Die Later

Seriously

Injured

Moderately

Injured

Uninjured

or

Lightly

Injured

Moderately

Injured

Uninjured

or

Lightly

Injured

M3

M4d 1-M4d

M5 1-M5

M4s M4m M4l

M6 1-M6

1-M3

M1*(1-M2)*DamageCounts

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Potential Earth Science Hazards

Ground Motion Ground failure

Direct Physical Damage

Direct

Economic/Social

Losses

Induced

Physical

Damage

General building

stockEssential & High

potential loss facililities

Lifelines&

transportation systems

Lifelines utility

systems

Inundation Fire HazMat Debris Causalities Shelter Economic

Indirect economic losses: Modules are interdependent with out put

of some

modules acting as input to others

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Probabilistic seismic hazard maps

1) Made by USGS

2) Contour maps with PGA and spectral acceleration at periods of 0.3 seconds and 1.0 second

3) 8 hazard levels: from 39 % probability in 50 years, to 2 % probability in 50 years

4) Return periods: 100 - 2500 years

Amplification of Ground Shaking -

Local Site Conditions

• Amplification of ground shaking to account for local site conditions is based on the site classes and soil amplification factors proposed for the

1997 NEHRP Provisions

• The NEHRP Provisionsdefine a standardized site geology classification scheme and specify soil amplification factors for most site classes.

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Ground Failure

1. Three types of ground failure are considered:

1) liquefaction,

2) Land sliding and

3) surface fault rupture.

2. Each of these types of ground failure are

quantified by permanent ground deformation

(PGD).

Earthquake susceptibility factors

1. Position on the plate tectonic zone or on the

ring of fire zone

2. Geological structure, especially the fault

structure

3. Stratigraphy

4. Lithology

5. Unconsolidated sediment

6. Groundwater depth

7. Historical data

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Earthquake Risk

1) Is an estimate of the probability of

expected loss for a given destruction

even

2) Risk = (Hazard x potential loss)/preparedness

Potential losses due to earthquake

1) Direct losses

2) Indirect losses

3) Secondary losses

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Ranking of Risk

C B A A

C B B A

D C B B

D D C C

A Risk Matrix

P

R

O

B

A

B

I

T

Y

High

Medium

Low

Very Low

POTENSIAL LOSS

Low

Medium High Very High

Guideline may be used to do a matrix analysis

Probability Loss

High Events that occur more

frequently than one in 10 years

Based on the potential of

element at risk:

• fatalities

• injuries

• services, infrastructure

• properties damage

• environmental impact

• economic impact,

• etc

Medium Events that occur from one in 10

years to one in 100 years

Low Events that occur from once in

100 years to once in 1000 years

Very Low Events that occur less frequently

than once in 1000 years

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Criteria used for class categorization

(is subjective)

Class A • High risk condition, immediate action is necessary

• Possible deaths over 1000

• People affected may be over 100.000

• Complete shut down of facilities and critical services

more than 14 days

• Over 50% of property located in the area may be damaged

Class B • Moderate to high risk, risk can be reduced by mitigation

• Possible deaths less than 1000

• People affected may be between 50.000 to 100.000

• Complete shut down of facilities and critical services for 7 days

• 25% of the properties in the area may be damaged.

Class C • low risk condition, however mitigation and planning is necessary

• Possibility of death low

• People affected between 10.000 and 50 000

• Complete shut down of facilities not more than 1 day

• about 10% of the property located in the area may be damaged

Class D • very low risk, only limited action necessary

• no possibility of death

• people affecte less than 1000

• Fasilities not affected

• about 1% of the property located in the area may be damaged

Earthquake risk assessment

1. Is to evaluate the earthquake resistance

of the community’s built environment

2. Requires characterization of the

community’s hazard environment and it

built environment;, controlled by:• amplitude,

• frequency,

• composition,

• duration,

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Characterization of the built

environment for risk assessment:

1. Building exposed to earthquake hazards

2. Structural characteristics:• Construction material

• Soil foundation

• Structural foundation

• Structural system

• Building configuration

• Age and usage

• Exposure to prior earthquake

3. Lifeline system exposed to earthquake

Information on the built

environment for risk assessment

1. Location of engineered and non engineered

buildings in relation to soil deposit:• Building inventory

• Soil characteristics (composition, type and depth)

2. Location/route of lifelines systems in relation to

soil deposit:• inventory

• soil characteristics

3. Vulnerability/fragility relation for building and

lifelines

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Damage and loss estimation

1. Estimation of from structural damages:• Direct physical damage

• Indirect economic losses

• Death and injures

Risk management action planning

1. Assessment of the current level of risk

management preparedness.

2. Formulation of risk management activities.

3. Formulation of strategy for implementation.

4. Designation of the institution that would

implement the plan

5. Implementation of the action plan

6. Publication and dissemination of the action

plan

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