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    lark University

    The Roepke Lecture in Economic Geography Urban Restructuring from a DemographicPerspectiveAuthor(s): W. A. V. ClarkSource: Economic Geography, Vol. 63, No. 2 (Apr., 1987), pp. 103-125Published by: Clark UniversityStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/144149.

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    E O N O

    EGR PHY

    VOL.

    63

    APRIL,

    1987 No. 2

    THE

    ROEPKE LECTURE IN ECONOMIC

    GEOGRAPHY

    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING

    FROM A DEMOGRAPHIC

    PERSPECTIVE

    v

    W. A. V. CLARK

    University of California,

    Los

    Angeles

    The central argument of this paper is that recent research has overemphasized

    the notions of

    urban

    restructuring and undervalued the role of spatial demograph-

    ics in understanding urban and region spatial patterns.

    The paper examines the

    notions

    embedded in urban restructuring and suggests

    that a focus on several

    elements of

    demographic processes

    is

    an equally important

    component of under-

    standing

    urban and

    region spatial structure.

    A

    specific discussion

    of the Los Angeles

    region indicates that there is a high level of complexity in social-spatial change.

    Social-spatial change is not simply explained by reference to an unspecified urban

    restructuring.

    The central theme of this paper

    is that

    the notion

    of urban

    restructuring,

    at least

    as currently expressed, has undervalued

    the

    role

    of demographic change

    and

    especially

    its spatial expression. To under-

    stand the changes

    in

    spatial patterning

    it is

    insufficient to

    view residential structure in

    class

    terms alone.

    The

    paper

    both argues

    theoretically

    and

    demonstrates

    empiri-

    cally that a spatial demographic focus is

    central

    to

    understanding regional

    change,

    and

    the intersection

    of

    economic

    and

    demographic analyses

    offers a

    rich

    poten-

    tial for understanding spatial

    patterns.

    'The Roepke

    Lecture in Economic Geography

    was

    established to honor the late

    Professor

    Howard

    G.

    Roepke

    who served on the

    faculty

    of

    the Univer-

    sity

    of

    Illinois

    at Urbana-Champaign

    from 1952

    until

    1985. The lecturer

    is

    chosen

    by

    the

    geography

    faculty of that institution in consultation with the

    editor

    of this

    journal.

    The

    paper was

    read

    at

    the

    Annual

    Meeting of the Association

    of American

    Geographers,

    April,

    1987. The

    author

    would like to

    thank

    Art

    Getis

    and

    David Plane

    for

    their

    comments

    at

    the

    presentation

    of

    this

    paper

    and Eric Moore and

    David

    Angel

    for

    comments

    and

    suggestions

    on ear-

    lier

    drafts of

    the

    material.

    The

    linking

    of several

    social-economic

    dimensions

    provides

    the

    basis for

    an

    extended research

    agenda, rather than an

    agenda

    organized

    around

    restructuring

    per se.

    And,

    the

    emphasis

    on urban re-

    structuring

    as

    a result of

    the division of

    labor obscures the

    complex set of

    social-

    economic forces which

    generate

    spatial

    patterns.

    Even though the notions of restructur-

    ing are often

    related to the spatial

    division

    of

    labor,

    criticism

    of urban

    restructuring

    is not necessarily

    a criticism of the

    spatial

    division of labor.

    Indeed,

    the

    notions of

    the division of

    labor,

    the

    role

    of the

    state,

    and the

    reproduction

    of

    labor

    have

    en-

    riched

    our

    understanding

    of

    societal rela-

    tions.

    But,

    at

    the same

    time, the

    attempt to

    focus

    on

    the

    commodity

    production sys-

    tem

    in

    space

    has

    led

    to a

    denigration

    of

    the

    important roles of

    migration

    and

    fer-

    tility,

    household

    composition

    change, and

    altered

    family

    lifestyles. Massey

    [41] sug-

    gests that

    economics and

    economic geog-

    raphy

    have been

    silent on

    the

    central and

    critical

    issues

    of the

    division of

    labor

    [41];

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    104

    ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

    the

    contention

    of this

    paper

    is that

    the

    urban

    restructuring literature, by recog-

    nizing only the role of production,

    has

    erred

    in the

    opposite

    direction.

    From

    the

    perspective of

    this

    paper,

    an analysis

    which can blend variables that capture

    spatial

    economic change and spatial

    demographic

    change

    is the

    challenge

    in

    creating

    a richer spatial analysis.

    We must

    also recognize

    that the

    changes

    that are

    propelled by economic and demographic

    forces

    are

    subject

    to

    policy

    interven-

    tions-but

    the role of

    the state must

    be

    seen as

    more than a

    class-based

    interven-

    tion.

    The body of this paper reviews recent

    theoretical debates,

    outlines the notions

    of restructuring, discusses the notion of a

    demographic

    imperative and demo-

    graphic change, and evaluates the

    impacts

    of state intervention

    in

    urban structures.

    METHODOLOGICAL DEBATES

    The

    rapidity

    of

    spatial

    economic

    change, city growth,

    and suburbanization

    following the Second World War cap-

    tured the attention of economists and

    geographers alike.

    One of the

    outcomes

    was

    a

    more process-oriented

    economic

    geography.

    The new economic geography

    epitomized

    the notion that analytical

    methods devoted to understanding

    eco-

    nomic activities

    in

    space would yield real

    advances

    in

    knowledge.

    The old concern

    with

    describing

    the

    locations

    of coal, iron

    ore, and steel fabricating plants was re-

    placed

    with the search for general laws of

    locational forces.

    As

    part

    of

    the

    ongoing

    attempt

    to

    develop

    better theoretical

    structures,

    so-

    cial

    physicists

    within

    geography argued

    that

    human

    beings obey

    mathematical

    rules,

    resembling

    in

    a general way, some

    of

    the laws of

    physics [66].

    The thrust of

    social

    physics

    and its translation

    as

    spatial

    analysis

    was

    to

    change

    the concern

    in

    geography from the unique, the micro-

    scopic,

    and the focus on

    regions,

    to

    a con-

    cern with

    models, laws,

    and

    systematic

    geography. Throughout

    the

    1960s,

    the

    geography agenda

    was

    concerned

    with

    turning geography into a science. The

    particular emphasis on

    geometry (espe-

    cially of central places) was

    unique to

    geography,

    but the

    use of statistical and

    mathematical approaches was

    paralleled

    by an increasing concern with mathemat-

    ics

    in

    anthropology, political

    science, and

    sociology. Thus, a major

    core of geog-

    raphy emphasized space, spatialrelations,

    and change

    in

    space.

    An

    obvious exten-

    sion was to focus on the

    structuring (or

    organization)

    of

    space-how individuals

    relate through space, and how they have

    organized society

    in

    space [46, p. 3].

    Not

    surprisingly, a solely

    geometrical

    approach to space was eventually ques-

    tioned by geographers, who

    were

    both-

    ered by

    both the strict limits

    of the

    geomet-

    rical approach and the strong assumptions

    of economic man

    that were often

    em-

    bedded

    in

    geography as spatial

    analysis

    [29; 56].

    The

    behaviorists

    argued that the

    models being developed were not very

    good descriptions

    of

    reality,

    and that

    geographical theory

    was

    developing

    slowly,

    if

    at

    all.

    To behavioral geogra-

    phers, if geography deals only with points

    and

    lines on

    maps,

    it

    might

    utilize

    geome-

    try

    as

    its

    approach.

    If it

    is

    more

    than that,

    then

    the laws

    of

    geometry

    are insufficient

    to build a science

    of

    geography.

    Geome-

    try

    alone

    is

    insufficient as a basis for

    explanation

    and

    prediction,

    since no

    proc-

    esses are involved

    in

    the derivation

    of

    geometries

    [59].

    Behavioral geography was a 1970s re-

    sponse to the geometrical/economic man

    approach

    of the 1950s

    and 1960s.

    In

    some

    ways,

    it

    was a continuation of

    earlier

    attempts

    to

    develop approaches

    which

    did

    not

    fit

    easily

    into

    the

    notions

    of

    profit

    maximizing decision making or

    (travel)

    distance

    minimization

    on

    which the

    geo-

    metrical

    approaches

    to

    geography

    had

    been

    built.

    The

    focus

    on the

    way

    in

    which

    choices

    are

    made and

    the

    way

    in

    which

    knowledge

    influenced those

    choices,

    in

    essence,

    the decision

    process

    in

    a

    spatial

    context,

    formed

    the

    basis

    for

    a

    broadened

    geography.

    Interest

    shifted from location

    in

    space

    to

    processes

    in

    space

    and

    the

    desire

    to

    derive

    alternative theories

    to

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    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING

    105

    those which

    are based on economic man.

    The concern was

    more with why activi-

    ties take place

    and with the patterns they

    produce

    in

    space,

    rather than location per

    se.

    While

    neoclassical

    economics and

    geometry were important underpinnings

    for geography

    as a

    spatial science,

    behav-

    ioral geographers looked to psychology

    for help

    in

    understanding decision mak-

    ing

    in

    space.

    These two themes, geography as

    ge-

    ometry

    and

    locational

    analysis, and geog-

    raphy as cognitive

    process, effectively

    dominated

    geography

    through

    the

    mid-

    1970s.

    They

    were

    in

    some sense structural

    and behavioral, or macro-contextual con-

    cerns (albeit

    rather

    narrowly

    focused),

    and

    micro-household foci.

    But, beginning

    in

    the 1970s

    and

    continuing

    to the

    present,

    we have had a considerable

    fragmenta-

    tion and a

    greater

    concern

    with the

    under-

    lying philosophical

    issues

    of

    research

    in

    geography

    and

    the

    nature

    of the

    links

    between individual action and

    social

    structure.

    Much

    of the debate was and

    is still

    stimulated by the desire to achieve a

    broader, overarching theory of, geo-

    graphic analysis.

    The debates over action

    and

    structure

    took

    place

    within

    the cruci-

    ble of

    arguments

    about

    the role of

    positiv-

    ism

    or,

    more strictly, post-positivism. The

    alternative

    foci included

    humanism,

    real-

    ism, and, most recently,

    issues of structur-

    alism

    and the context

    within

    which indi-

    vidual

    behavior occurs. Most recently,

    the concern to develop a theory of society

    has revolved

    around investigations of

    the

    structure of

    capitalism,

    and,

    in

    the

    late-

    1970s,

    there was

    a

    vigorous debate

    about

    the value of neo-Marxist

    approaches

    to

    understanding society

    and

    its

    forms. Much

    of the debate utilized class relations as the

    point

    of

    departure,

    and

    the task

    was to

    work out the

    links

    between

    production

    (as

    related

    to

    class)

    and all other elements

    of

    society.

    In

    part,

    this

    focus

    on

    produc-

    tion

    can

    be seen as a reaction to the

    focus

    on cities as

    centers of

    consumption

    and on

    issues of micro-behavior

    rather than

    macro-structures.

    The debates about how

    to

    understand

    late

    twentieth

    century ur-

    ban patterns now emphasize cities as cen-

    ters of production. The claim is that, in

    order to understand society at large, we

    need to understand production which

    drives

    the

    city.

    From

    this

    perspective,

    to

    understand residential communities, it is

    necessary to understand the role of pro-

    duction.

    A

    survey of this extensive literature

    reveals at least three important threads

    which are central

    in

    the development of

    the theory

    of

    society

    from the

    perspective

    of

    a

    new economic

    geography.

    There

    is

    a

    concern

    with the

    spatial

    division

    of labor

    which emphasizes

    the

    relationship

    of la-

    bor to industry [41; 68], the examination

    of the reproduction of labor [32; 54], and

    the studies of the role of the state [7; 8;

    38].

    These

    notions,

    whether

    identified

    as

    neo-Marxist or the new economic geog-

    raphy, are a coherent set of ideas aimed at

    explaining society.

    Of

    course, they

    are

    not the only overarching theoretical per-

    spectives. The notions embedded

    in

    the

    new housing economics [17], the con-

    strained choice concepts [51], and even

    accounting approaches to societal change

    are

    competing

    theories

    [60].

    THE NOTION OF

    RESTRUCTURING

    Out of the methodological debates,

    and

    particularly

    the discussions of the

    division

    of

    labor,

    the ideas

    of

    restructur-

    ing-sometimes urban restructuring-

    have emerged. Restructuring

    is

    the ter-

    minology used to describe technological

    and organizational changes

    in

    production

    and

    their

    spatial expression [4].

    Some

    have suggested

    that

    restructuring should

    be

    the central

    concept

    of

    an economic

    geography

    of

    contemporary capitalism

    [64]. Although restructuring appears

    to

    have more than one meaning, at

    its

    most

    general,

    it

    appears

    to refer to the

    complex

    of

    organizational changes occurring

    in

    industry and their spatial outcomes [3; 52;

    61]. Bluestone and Harrison [3] in particu-

    lar

    argue that fundamental changes

    in

    the

    organization

    of

    industry (which operates

    largely

    within

    urban

    regions)

    have

    given

    rise to an overall urban restructuring.

    But

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    106

    ECONoMic

    GEOGRAPHY

    an attempt to

    delve beneath

    the simple

    terminology

    of urban

    restructuring

    raises

    several

    questions

    or problems.

    First,

    at the most elementary

    level,

    are

    the (present)

    changes in industry

    and

    society anything more than a continua-

    tion of processes

    that began

    50 to

    100

    years ago?

    The common description

    in-

    vokes urban

    restructuring

    as a situation

    or

    process

    in

    which there

    has been a series

    of structural changes

    which have signifi-

    cantly

    modified the social and economic

    geography

    of

    the region

    ... a comprehen-

    sive process

    of urban restructuring

    [64,

    p. 195].

    At

    least implicitly,

    the changes

    are typified as different from ones that

    have

    occurred

    in

    the past, and

    thus the

    term urban

    restructuring

    is

    designed

    to

    reflect

    a new type

    of change

    or a new

    social and

    spatial reorganization

    of

    the

    urban region.

    (The empirical

    question

    of

    whether

    the

    changes

    are

    different

    will be

    taken

    up

    later

    in

    the discussion.)

    A

    second

    question

    revolves around

    the

    extent

    to which the

    notion of

    restructur-

    ing appears

    to be general,

    that is, applies

    to

    both social and economic processes.

    In

    particular,

    the focus

    of the

    urban

    restruc-

    turing

    discussion

    is on the way

    in

    which

    labor

    is

    organized

    and

    how labor

    inter-

    sects

    with capital. To

    this

    extent,

    the new

    division

    of

    labor [41 ]

    is

    the

    linchpin

    of the

    notion of urban

    restructuring.

    The

    impli-

    cation

    is

    that all

    processes

    can

    be

    drawn

    (ultimately)

    from the

    division

    of labor.

    A

    third issue

    is

    that

    the

    discussions

    of

    restructuring are largely empirical with

    little

    theorization beyond relying

    on

    the

    changing organization

    of

    industry.

    In

    some sense,

    urban restructuring appears

    almost as

    an

    appendage

    to the

    more

    complex

    notions of the division of

    labor.

    Restructuring

    as a function of

    the spatial

    division

    of labor

    is

    most clearly

    enun-

    ciated

    by

    Massey [41],

    who

    argues

    that

    behind

    major

    shifts

    between

    dominant

    spatial

    divisions

    of labor

    lie

    changes

    in

    the

    spatial

    organization

    of

    capitalist

    relations

    of

    production

    which

    together

    produce

    a

    particular

    form

    of

    spatial patterning

    of

    society [41, p. 8].

    Massey's presentation

    and a

    companion presentation

    by

    Storper

    and

    Walker [68]

    uses the organizing

    con-

    cept spatial

    structures of production

    as

    an approach

    to increase

    our understand-

    ing

    of how

    those firms with

    an internal

    division

    of labor are

    able to take advan-

    tage of geographical differences within

    the

    labor

    force. Now, the working

    out of

    this

    structure,

    at least as presented

    by

    Massey,

    is largely firm based.

    Massey

    notes

    that spatially

    differentiated

    pat-

    terns of production

    are one of

    the

    bases

    of

    geographical

    variation

    in

    social

    structure

    and class

    relations. They are

    not the only

    cause,

    but

    they

    are

    significant

    [41,

    p.

    117].

    In

    a

    substantial portion

    of Massey's

    book, the examples suggest that spatial

    social separation

    is

    the outcome

    of the

    spatial

    division

    of labor. To Massey spa-

    tial reorganization

    is

    an important

    aspect

    of industrial reorganization

    and regions

    are a product

    of such processes [41,

    p.

    196].

    There is evidence

    that an

    analysis of

    industrial location

    based on

    the division

    of

    labor has enriched

    our

    understanding

    of

    how

    changes

    in

    industrial organization

    and

    the labor

    process

    have reshaped

    the

    territoriality

    of

    employment

    [41; 68]. But,

    as

    Martin

    [40]

    has

    succinctly noted,

    it

    has

    much

    less to say on

    the geography

    of

    labor supply

    and

    on the exchange process

    in

    the

    local labor

    market.

    As a result, it

    provides

    an

    incomplete conceptual

    frame-

    work

    in

    which to analyze

    the complex

    interplay

    of demand and

    supply

    or of the

    exchange process

    in

    the local labor mar-

    ket [40, p. 571]. Martin goes further to

    emphasize

    the need

    to

    incorporate

    con-

    sideration

    of

    the

    distinct

    social and

    insti-

    tutional

    mechanisms

    that

    generate

    the

    hierarchically

    arranged secondary

    asym-

    metries

    of

    labour-market

    segmentation,

    mechanisms

    that cannot

    be simply 'read

    Qff' rom or reduced

    to the basic

    dualism

    between capital

    and

    labor

    [40, p. 571].

    Urban

    restructuring

    is

    much more than

    industrial

    change,

    and

    there are

    many

    components

    at the individual

    level.

    In

    a

    slightly

    different

    vein,

    but

    reflecting

    a

    similar

    concern, Ley [37]

    also

    questions

    the simple

    notion

    of a

    powerful

    elite

    (cap-

    ital)

    in

    the

    structuring

    and

    restructuring

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    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING

    107

    of urban

    land.

    In

    a review of

    Hartman's

    (1984) study of San

    Francisco, he notes

    that the

    collusion between business

    and

    local-political interest

    was repeatedly dis-

    torted or interrupted

    by idiosyncratic

    events. He argues, as a result, that to

    really

    understand the way in

    which the

    structuring

    and restructuring of

    urban

    land

    occurred requires that the

    black

    box

    of

    urban culture be

    opened and

    its

    dynamic

    be

    fully

    assessed

    [37, p. 534].

    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING FROM

    A

    DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE

    Between the conceptual notions of the

    spatial

    division of

    labor, the

    role

    of the

    state,

    and

    the reproduction of labor

    and

    the ideas of

    restructuring there

    is

    a set of

    concepts

    that

    relate

    to

    processes

    at a more

    specific scale. These include

    (among oth-

    ers)

    the

    mobility

    of labor

    (to metropoli-

    tan

    areas), changes

    in

    fertility, changing

    household

    dynamics, local

    mobility, and

    the state

    management

    of

    populations.

    These have often been the

    focus

    of

    specific

    investigations within urban and economic

    geography.

    These

    concepts are at a

    differ-

    ent level

    of

    generalization

    than

    the pre-

    vious

    discussions

    of

    higher level

    theories

    (Figure 1). In

    addition,

    these

    concepts

    involve,

    explicitly or

    implicitly,

    descrip-

    tive statements of their spatial expression.

    We

    need to

    know about

    these

    phenomena,

    but

    they are not

    a

    theory

    of society,

    nor

    do

    they replace

    the

    search for

    higher lev-

    els

    of

    theory.

    Also,

    the

    variables

    embed-

    ded

    in

    these

    concepts

    are not

    exogenous.

    Household

    composition

    and its

    changes

    reflect an

    interplay

    of

    both

    economic

    and

    geographic

    forces. Now, at

    the

    same

    time,

    there is

    the

    possibility of

    higher

    level theorizing about demographic proc-

    esses,

    as

    illustrated

    by

    the

    attempts to

    understand

    population

    processes,

    espe-

    cially

    fertility

    changes

    at a

    global

    level

    [15; 8]

    the

    use

    of

    spatial

    demographic

    accounting

    as

    a

    process

    monitoring ap-

    proach to

    population

    change [72],

    and the

    attempts

    to

    link

    population

    and

    resources

    [19].

    The

    individual

    processes identified

    in

    Figure

    1

    also have a

    theoretical com-

    ponent.

    While

    geographers

    have

    focused

    largely on issues of migration [19; 13] and

    Spatial

    Division

    Reproduction

    Role

    of

    the

    State

    of

    Labor

    of

    Labor

    Changes

    LclMblt

    Mobility

    in

    Fertility

    State

    Management

    of

    Labor

    Household

    of

    PopulAtioA

    Dynamics

    Migration

    RESTRUCTURING

    OF

    POPULATION

    AT

    THE

    LOCAL

    LEVEL

    Fig.

    1.

    Relationships

    among

    restructuring

    and

    demographic

    concepts.

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    108

    ECONOMIC

    GEOGRAPHY

    spatial interaction

    [22;

    53],

    the decline in

    mortality,

    the

    accelerating rate of

    popula-

    tion

    growth,

    and the

    increasing

    contrasts

    in population structures between the 'de-

    veloped

    and

    developing

    world

    have em-

    phasized the role of demography and

    population analysis as a critical

    compo-

    nent of understanding a complex

    society.

    Accelerating population growth rates, in-

    creasing urbanization, and the associated

    problems of hunger and malnutrition

    and

    of

    environmental degradation

    led to a

    concern with understanding the role of

    population processes and

    their

    intersec-

    tion with

    the

    economic structure.

    In arguing for the necessity of under-

    standing urban change, the

    focus of

    this

    paper

    is

    necessarily

    directed

    to the four

    structures

    in the

    middle level

    of

    Figure

    1.

    Although

    the

    diagram suggests

    a

    linearity

    in the

    relationships,

    it is obvious that

    indi-

    vidual

    change (economic change)

    can

    influence population patterns just as

    we

    argue

    here that

    population processes

    in-

    fluence restructuring. However, the

    focus here

    is

    on the

    way

    in

    which

    each of

    these components-regional population

    shifts, fertility change, household dynam-

    ics, local mobility, and

    state

    managed

    population distributions-are

    central to

    understanding localized population

    change.

    A

    similar

    emphasis

    on

    empirical/

    conceptual analysis

    is

    suggested by

    Fin-

    cher

    [21].

    How

    do

    these

    components

    relate to local

    and

    to place specific

    change?

    The changing flows of population na-

    tionally,

    regionally (from frostbelt to

    sunbelt), and

    from

    cities to

    suburbs have

    been

    the

    subject

    of scores

    of

    articles

    from

    both

    geographic

    and economic

    perspec-

    tives. Suffice

    it

    to say that the spatial redis-

    tributions

    have rearranged the patterns

    of

    groups within

    cities

    and have major

    im-

    plications

    for the

    declining

    and

    growing

    regions.

    The

    selective migration

    of the

    elderly [28]

    and the

    selective

    in-migration

    of

    new immigrants [43]

    have created

    situations

    where

    in

    some

    parts

    of the

    country

    there are under-utilized

    or

    va-

    cated

    facilities,

    while

    in

    other

    growth

    areas, population

    increases

    have created

    problems

    for local governments

    gener-

    ally and

    especially for local

    school sys-

    tems.

    International

    population

    flows are a

    good example

    of multiple-determined

    phenomena, which in turn create com-

    plex social

    spatial patterns.

    Certainly, the

    modern

    state

    influences the labor supply

    needed for economic

    development. In-

    ternational migrations

    are more

    than

    the

    sum of individual

    motivations, but we

    should

    not undervalue the powerful

    indi-

    vidual drives-individual

    economic ad-

    vancement,

    the desire

    for education, and

    increases in human

    welfare. Not all shifts

    in population are simply tied to changing

    economic conditions.

    The major

    immi-

    gration

    flows reiterate again

    the necessity

    of

    understanding

    the demographic

    im-

    perative

    in

    parallel

    to economic changes.

    While Greenwood

    [31] has provided ex-

    tensive disequilibrium

    models

    of popula-

    tion flows, Clark

    [6]

    has suggested the

    importance of government

    programs

    in

    influencing the

    shifts of population.

    However,

    Morrill [48] has raised

    serious

    issues about the extent to which a society,

    even

    in

    the search

    for social

    justice,

    can

    take on the role

    of

    preserving

    a given

    geographical

    structure.

    The

    way

    in

    which

    policy

    is

    exerted

    has

    particular

    geographic

    impacts-not

    all

    of them welcome ones.

    This

    paper

    addresses

    the tension

    between

    policy

    and outcome

    in

    a later section.

    The

    flows of

    population

    are

    not

    inde-

    pendent

    of

    changing

    fertility

    and the

    differences in fertility between native and

    immigrant populations.

    The

    last decade

    of

    the twentieth

    century

    will be the

    period

    in

    which

    the baby boom generation

    will

    continue to mature. Fertility

    will remain

    low. Some demographers

    have described

    it

    as the

    maturation

    of

    the U.S.

    population

    [66]. Population

    age pyramids

    indicate

    that the

    passage

    of the

    baby

    boom

    popu-

    lation will effectively

    elongate

    the

    age

    pyramid,

    which

    will become

    something

    closer

    to a

    rectangle

    at

    least for

    the

    Anglo

    population.

    The

    U.S.

    will

    eventually par-

    allel the

    demographic

    shifts

    that

    are well

    in

    place

    in

    Western European

    nations

    (Figure

    2).

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    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING 109

    n

    2E

    co

    o

    )

    C

    co

    co

    co

    C)LL

    0

    a

    0

    c

    c

    0~~~~~~0

    0~~~~~~~

    n _

    0

    co

    >,

    0~~~~~~~~~

    02 S~~~~~

    )

    m

    m

    o

    CL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    ZO O

    _.

    zT

    w

    C))

    D

    cn~~~~~~

    0)~~~~~~~~~.........

    .0%....HIS...PANIC--

    ................

    ...........

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    ~

    ~

    ~

    ~

    C

    ..............

    ...

    ... .........

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~0

    >60%

    BLACK~~~~~.............

    ........... ........

    .....

    ..........

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    5

    ........

    ...

    ......

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    L.A. CITY

    IMITS~~~~~~~~~~~~....

    ..

    ...

    .....

    ....................

    ....

    :

    ....

    ........

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    0

    L.A.......

    ........

    CHOOL......

    DISTRICTOUND

    RY...

    ..........

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    Fig. 5. Theos Angeles

    School District and

    its ethnic

    ompos.t.on.in.1980.

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    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING

    119

    population.

    Part

    of

    the decline

    in

    white

    enrollments

    is related to differential

    out-

    migration

    (Table 8). In fact, most

    of

    the

    very recent

    increase

    in

    total

    enrollment

    (1985-1986) is due to

    changes

    in

    the

    numbers of

    Hispanics and Asians

    (Figure

    6). While the public enrollment declined,

    private enrollment

    increased (part of the

    white

    flight

    from the

    public

    school

    sys-

    tem). The

    total

    numbers went

    from

    ap-

    proximately 85,000 to 107,000

    n

    the period

    1974-1982.

    Private

    school enrollment is

    not broken down

    by race,

    but it

    is

    largely

    white.

    The demographic process

    of

    de-

    clining

    school

    enrollments,

    principally

    declining

    white

    enrollments,

    is

    related to

    the decline in the number of children of

    school

    age.

    The issue

    is

    whether these

    losses were

    unusually large

    during the

    years of intervention and whether

    there

    were spatial implications of the

    interven-

    tion.

    TABLE 8

    POPULATION ELOCATION

    N SOUTHERN

    ALIFORNIA,

    975-1980

    NET

    MIGRATION

    F

    IIOUSEHOLDS ITH

    CHILDREN,

    Destination

    Surrounding

    Rest of

    L.A.

    County Counties

    State

    Origin [lisp. +11720 +1800 +1640

    White

    +6560 +7720

    t5120

    L.A.

    City Black

    +7840 +840

    -8405

    Source:

    Public

    Use

    Tapes,

    1980.

    The

    enrollment losses

    and

    gains

    show

    relatively

    steady changes

    over time.

    However, an

    analysis of rates of

    loss and

    gain

    are more

    informative with

    respect

    to

    an

    analysis

    of

    interventions.

    Diagrams

    of

    rates of loss and gain show that in the

    early

    1970s rates of

    white

    enrollment

    loss

    were

    in

    the

    range

    of

    five to ten

    percent,

    but

    during

    the

    interval of

    mandatory

    reassignment,

    the loss

    rates of white

    stu-

    dents

    exceeded 15

    percent

    in

    some

    years

    330

    |Ns

    Other,'

    CO)

    280d

    o

    NWhite

    o

    Ns,,

    0

    3 0

    Z

    .

    \\

    1B8l0a|ck4

    \-

    Z

    1

    3 0

    -

    __

    80-

    0

    1-

    -- |

    1

    1

    1

    70

    72

    74

    76

    78 80 82

    84

    YEAR

    Fig.

    6. Total pupil

    enrollment

    in the

    Los Angeles

    school

    system.

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    120

    ECONoMIc

    GEOGRAPHY

    (Figure 7). As the graphs

    show, while

    Hispanics

    increased in enrollment as well

    as

    percent,

    whites

    declined in

    numbers,

    and

    the rates of

    loss

    were

    greatest

    during

    the

    period 1978-81. These

    district-wide

    discussions of loss rates mask the changes

    in specific regions.

    In some

    regions and

    schools, especially

    in

    the San

    Fernando

    Valley (Figure 8) where

    there

    were man-

    datory assignments

    to

    central black

    schools,

    loss

    rates of 40%

    ccurred.

    There

    is

    little

    doubt that

    white losses

    were exacerbated

    during the process of

    mandatory busing. This finding is

    similar

    to the

    finding

    of

    several other

    authors

    who have examined white enrollment

    change [59].

    What was the

    effect on the

    levels

    of

    integration

    in

    the system? The

    graphs

    indicate that the

    indices for

    all

    schools

    changed

    from

    dissimilarity

    and

    exposure

    levels

    of

    approximately 0.7 to

    0.6 and from

    0.6

    to

    0.3

    (Figure 9).

    Thus,

    there

    was a ten

    percent

    drop

    in

    the dissim-

    ilarity index, and an almost 30

    percent

    drop

    in

    the

    exposure index. A

    closer

    comparison of

    the white

    versus

    minority

    (Hispanic, black,

    and Asian)

    and

    white

    versus black

    indices suggests

    that

    the lev-

    els of

    separation

    decreased more in

    the

    white versus

    Hispanic

    case than in the

    white versus

    black.

    This

    suggests that

    despite

    the

    program

    of

    mandatory reas-

    signment

    of black

    students, there is

    greater

    integration of Hispanics. This latter situa-

    tion

    has arisen

    because of the

    greater

    geographic

    dispersal

    of

    Hispanic

    house-

    15-

    10-

    ILi

    444

    +.,

    j

    bOther

    5.

    z

    5

    A., ,.'

    '......'

    9'''''~~~~~~~~~4

    ...

    ,>

    .oA .

    .

    .

    .

    . I

    , , , .

    o 0

    -

    A

    /

    \Black

    wL ]

    -5

    -0 \White

    \/

    -15-

    -20-

    -

    2 5

    -

    1

    ,

    ,

    X

    - I

    70

    72

    74

    76

    78

    80

    82

    84

    YEAR

    Fig.

    7.

    Enrollment

    change

    in

    the

    total

    school

    system,

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    URBAN

    RESTRUCTURING 121

    100

    80/

    WD 60

    | Black

    60

    z

    Other

    o

    40

    W

    20

    0

    White\

    /

    I

    -40

    71

    72

    73

    74

    75

    76 77

    78

    79

    80 81

    82

    83 84

    Fig.

    8.

    Enrollment

    in

    the

    grade

    schools

    in the San Fernando

    Valley.

    0.

    95

    4444

    0.3

    _

    b Pal,_

    X

    issimilarity

    0.7

    0.6- ,. .,.,.

    0,5>- '-~~ ..,,,^\s-s-s---...

    .

    .

    . .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    0.4~~~~~~~~s, Exposure

    0.-3

    ............

    0.1

    2-

    70

    72

    74

    76

    78

    80 82

    84

    Fig.

    9. Indices

    of

    separation (segregation)

    for all schools:

    (a)

    dissimilarity

    index for black

    versus

    white, (b)

    dissimilarity

    for white versus

    all

    minorities, (c) exposure

    index

    for

    black

    versus

    white, (d) exposure

    index

    for

    whites

    versus

    all minorities.

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    122

    ECONOMIC

    GEOGRAPHY

    holds. (See Massey and

    Denton [42] on

    the relation of assimilation

    to levels

    of

    separation.)

    What can

    we conclude from the results

    of

    this

    case

    study? I believe it demon-

    strates the high level of complexity in spa-

    tial social change, and

    that even in the

    instances of mandated/managed

    inter-

    vention,

    the spatial changes

    are not clearly

    related to managed objectives.

    In addi-

    tion, it appears that the

    aim of residential

    integration (for blacks)

    has not occurred

    to any marked extent.

    The white

    re-

    sponses,

    via differential out-migration

    and private school enrollment,

    reveal

    the

    complexity of individual responses.

    CONCLUSION

    This

    paper

    began with a discussion

    of

    urban restructuring, which has been

    a

    focus

    for those who have

    sought

    to

    link

    spatial

    outcomes to changes

    in

    industrial

    organization.

    The paper has suggested

    that the

    focus has led to a situation

    in

    which the concern for labor has tended

    to

    dominate

    the issues related to understand-

    ing economic

    and social

    processes

    in

    space.

    The notion that (suddenly)

    we are

    globally interconnected,

    and

    that there

    is

    an international division of

    labor which

    did not exist

    previously,

    requires

    consid-

    erably

    more

    development

    if

    it is

    to be an

    organizing

    theory

    for human

    geography

    [57].

    How the

    built

    environment

    is

    continu-

    ally fashioned and refashioned is the cen-

    tral concern of

    the

    geographic enterprise,

    or

    at least that

    part

    of

    the

    geographic

    enterprise

    that

    is

    focused

    on cities and

    urbanregions. By

    extension,

    it is

    also con-

    cerned

    with the associated

    social

    patterns

    that arise from the creation

    of

    the built

    environment.

    The

    creation of

    that built

    environment

    is

    the result of two forces:

    the forces of

    institutions and the forces

    of

    individuals.

    It

    is perhaps reasserting

    the

    obvious

    to

    postulate

    that

    investigations

    at

    both

    the micro and macro

    levels are

    necessary

    if

    we are to fully

    understand

    the

    complexity

    of the urban environment.

    While

    it

    is true

    that micro-social

    analysis

    will

    not yield an understanding

    of broad

    social

    change, neither will

    the macro insti-

    tutional

    forces explain the

    myriad subtle

    processes of

    micro behavioral

    decision

    making.

    It is this micro/macro concern

    that must continue to drive our attempts

    to

    understand both individual

    behavior

    and

    macro

    policy

    issues [12].

    A number of

    authors,

    including John-

    ston [34] and Jackson

    [33]

    have empha-

    sized

    the role of institutional intervention

    in influencing

    the social patterns

    within

    the

    built environment.

    In particular,

    Johnston

    has

    argued

    that zoning and

    fiscal

    measures have

    been used to achieve

    and

    maintain desired levels of separation, but

    the issue here

    is how to assess

    impacts

    versus

    existence.

    That

    zoning

    and fiscal

    measures existed

    is indisputable, but

    the

    effects

    are less

    readily

    assessed.

    Even

    those most committed

    to

    utilizing

    the neo-Marxist

    urban restructuring

    ap-

    proach

    would admit that

    people are

    not

    simply manipulated

    by

    the larger society.

    If

    the

    above

    is

    true, we are led

    to an

    analytical

    approach

    which

    gives equality

    if not primary emphasis to studies of

    demographic processes.

    The

    notions of a

    restructuring perspective

    which empha-

    sizes deindustrialization

    and a new func-

    tional hierarchy

    and a deconcentration

    or

    demographic perspective

    which focuses

    on residential

    location preferences

    has

    also

    been

    suggested by

    Frey [25].

    His

    empirical

    analysis

    offers

    support

    for

    the

    latter view.

    The demographic

    drives,

    especiallythose related to household forma-

    tion,

    childbearing, and

    men's and wom-

    en's roles

    in

    society

    will continue

    to

    change

    in

    the late twentieth

    century.

    They

    are

    powerful

    explanatory

    concepts

    which can

    stand as intermediate-scale

    explanatory approaches

    to understand-

    ing

    the

    spatial

    organization

    of society.

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