Hedy Chang, Director hedy@attendanceworks.org

Reducing the Gap in Achievement &

Graduation: Start With Monitoring

Chronic Absence(September 28, 2012)

2

Talent is Abundant But Opportunity is

Scarce

What does this statement mean to you?

3

Attendance Every Day

Achievement Every Year

Attainment Over Time

An Antidote to Drop-OutTh

e 3

A Sc

hool

Suc

cess

Fram

ewor

k

Developed by Annie E. Casey Foundation & America’s Promise Alliance For more info go to www.americaspromise.org/parentengagement

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Unpacking Attendance Terms

Average Daily Attendance

• Definition: The % of enrolled students who attend school each day• Answers: What resources are needed to serve typical number of students who

show up to school?

Truancy

• Definition: Typically refers only to unexcused absences and is defined by each state . In CA, truancy is defined as missing school 3 times without a valid excuse or being late to class by more than 30 minutes without a valid excuse.

• Answers: How many/which students are skipping school and breaking the law?

Chronic Absence

• Definition: Missing 10% or more of school for any reason – excuse, unexcused, etc.

• Answers: How many and which students are missing so much school they are academically at risk? Do we need to improve attendance in order to raise achievement?

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Students Who Miss More Than 10% Of School Are At Grave Academic Risk

When 90% Doesn’t Earn an “A”

Chronic Absence(=>10% absence)

Warning Signs(<10% but >5% absence)

Satisfactory Attendance(=<5% absence)

0-90%

91-94%

95 %+

Emergency: =>20% absence

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Nationwide, as many as 7.5 million students miss nearly a month of school every year.

In some cities, as many as one in four students are missing that much school.

Chronic absenteeism is a red alert that students are headed for academic trouble and eventually for dropping out of high school. 

Poor attendance isn’t just a problem in high school. It can start as early as kindergarten.

Chronic Absence is a Hidden National Crisis

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No attendance risks Small attendance risks Moderate attendance risks

High attendance risks0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

64%

43% 41%

17%

Chart TitlePercent Students Scoring Proficient or Advanced on 3rd Grade ELA Based on Attendance in Kindergarten and 1st Grade Attendance

Students Chronically Absent in Kindergarten & 1st Grade Much Less Likely to Read Proficiently in 3rd Grade

No risk Missed less than 5% of school in K & 1st tSmall risk Missed 5-9% of days in both K & 1st

Moderate risk 5-9% of days absent in 1 year &10 % in 1 year

High risk Missed 10% or more in K & 1st Source: Applied Survey Research & Attendance Works (April 2011)

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Greater likelihood of continued poor attendance. 50% chronically absent again in G1, 45% in G2.

Lower outcomes in G1, G2 in reading and math, and math in G3.

More often retained (26% compared with 9% of students with no chronic absence).

More likely to be identified as needing special education.

Worst outcomes for children who did not attend preK.

In Baltimore, chronic absence in both preK and K predicted significantly worse outcomes including

By contrast, children who participated in Head Start had better attendance and higher 3rd grade test scores.

9

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

0-3.3% in K 3.3 - 6.6% in K 6.6-10.0% in K >=10.0% in K

Aver

age

Acad

emic

Per

form

ance

Absence Rate in Kindergarten

ReadingMath

The Long-term impact of Chronic Kindergarten Absence Is Most Troubling for Poor Children

Source: ECLS-K data analyzed by National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP) Note: Average academic performance reflects results of direct cognitive assessments conducted for ECLS-K.

K Chronic Absence Associated with Lower 5th Grade Math and Reading Performance Even When Attendance Improved in 3rd Grade

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Chronic Absence is Especially Challenging for Low-Income Children

Poor children are 4x more likely to be chronically absent in K than their highest income peers.

Children in poverty are more likely to lack basic health and safety supports that ensure a child is more likely to get to school. They often face:

Unstable Housing Limited Access to Health Care Poor Transportation Inadequate Food and Clothing Lack of Safe Paths to School Due to Neighborhood

Violence Chaotic Schools with Poor Quality Programs, etc.

* (Romero & Lee 2007)

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Chronically Absent 6th Graders Have Lower Graduation Rates

Dropout Rates by Sixth Grade Attendance(Baltimore City Public Schools, 1990-2000 Sixth Grade Cohort)

Severely Chronically

Absent

ChronicallyAbsent

NotChronically

Absent

Source: Baltimore Education Research Consortium SY 2009-2010

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9th Grade Attendance Predicts Graduation for Students of All Economic Backgrounds

Note: This Chicago study found attendance was a stronger graduation predictor than 8th grade test scores.

Source: Allensworth & Easton, What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools, Consortium on Chicago School Research at U of C, July 2007

Need to recolor chart

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Moving into Action Requires KnowingIf Chronic Absence is a Problem

Most Schools Only Track Average Daily Attendance and Truancy. Both Can Mask Chronic Absence.

98% ADA = little chronic absence, 95%ADA = don’t know; 93% ADA = significant chronic absence

A B C D E F-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

7%

12% 13% 13%15% 16%

Chronic Absence For 7 Elementary Schools in Oakland, CA with @ 95% ADA in 2012

% Chronic Absence

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Sporadic — Not Just Consecutive – Absences Matter

A 407 alert is issued when student misses 10 consecutive days or 20 days over a 40 day period. It misses more sporadic absence.1 out of 5 elementary school children were chronically absent.

Source: Nauer K et al, Strengthening Schools by Strengthening Families, Center for New York City Affairs New School, Oct 2008

New York City Schools

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Chronic Absence Versus Truancy (San Francisco Unified School District)

(Note: SFUSD identified chron/hab truants as = 10 unexcused absences)

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Chronic absence data (as well as other attendance measures) should be examined by classroom, grade, school, neighborhood or sub-population.

If chronic absence is unusually high for a particular group of students, explore what might be common issues (unreliable transportation, community violence, asthma and other chronic diseases, poor access to health care, unnecessary suspension for non-violent offenses, lack of engaging curriculum, child care or afterschool programming, foreclosures, etc.)

If chronic absence is unusually low for a high-risk population, find out what they are doing that works.

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Data is Needed for Identifying Programmatic Solutions

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Elementary Absenteeism Concentrated in West Oakland

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Schools + Communities CAN Make a Difference

Characteristics of Successful Attendance Initiatives Partner with community agencies to help families carry out their

responsibility to get children to school. Make attendance a priority, set targets and monitor progress over time. Engage parents and students in identifying and addressing school, family,

and community issues that contribute to chronic absence. Clearly communicate expectations for attendance to students and

families. Begin early, ideally in Pre-K. Combine targeted interventions with universal strategies that nurture an

engaged learning environment, build a culture of attendance and ensure physical health and safety at school.

Offer positive supports before punitive action.

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Increased Attendance Involves a 3-Tiered Approach that Fits with Most Reform Efforts

A small fraction of a school’s

students

Students who were chronicallyabsent in prior year or starting to miss 20% or moreof school

Someof a school’s

studentsStudents at risk for chronic absence

All of a school’s

studentsAll students in the school

RecoveryPrograms

InterventionPrograms

Universal/Preventive Programs

High Cost

Low Cost

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Solutions Only Work If Grounded in Understanding Of What Leads to Chronic

Absence

Discretion

Parents don’t know

attendance matters

School lacks a strong culture of attendance

Aversion

Child is struggling

academically

Child is being bullied

Barriers

Lack of access to health care

No safe path to school

Poor transportation

Special thanks to Dr. Robert Balfanz, Everyone Graduates Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD for providing this framework.

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Recognize Good & Improved Attendance

Parent and Student

Engagement

Personalized Early Outreach

School Team Monitoring

Attendance Data & Practice

Proposed Universal Strategies For Influencing Discretion and Identifying

Causes of Absence

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• Case management and wrap-around services• Referral as last resort for court-based intervention

• Early outreach, support, mentoring for students with poor attendance

• Identify and remove barriers• Attendance contracts

• Safe and supportive school environment• Engaging classroom environments• Parent education about why attendance matters

and how to help each other get students to school• On-going attention to attendance data• Recognition for good and improved attendance• Collaboration with afterschool and early childhood• School-based health support

RecoveryPrograms

Strategies for 3 Tiered Approach

InterventionPrograms

InterventionPrograms

Universal/Preventive Programs

Intervention Programs

Universal/Preventive Programs

Recovery Programs

Universal strategies are part of tiered interventions

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Messaging Capacity Building

Data Accountability

Ingredients For Success & Sustainability in a District

Is accurate, regularly

reported and easily

obtained

Ensures monitoring & incentives

to reduce chronic

absence

Expands ability to interpret data and adopt best practices

Conveys importance

of building a habit of

attendance & what is

chronic absence Strengthens

Family/School Relationship

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Own the Issue Mobilize the Community Drive With Data

The Superintendents Call to Action

Putting in Place A Systemic & Sustainable Approach

Register at: www.attendanceworks.org/superintendents-call-to-action

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Lessons Learned 1. Avoid the blame game. Find out how everyone

can contribute to reducing absences.2. Use data to identify priorities where you can

make the greatest impact – for example -the transitions to K and 9th grade.

3. Provide positive supports first – it’s less costly and more effective.

4. Build ownership at the school site level. But, remember schools can’t do it alone!

5. Engage in systemic reform by bringing together key stakeholders at district/community level and staffing the coordinated effort.

6. Reducing chronic absence takes time and sustained attention.

7. Especially as students get older, combine attention to attendance with other early warning indicators.

Using Early Warning SystemsTo Raise Achievement,

Decrease Dropouts, and Increase Post-Secondary Success

Robert Balfanz Everyone Graduates Center Johns Hopkins University

Core Idea of Early Warning Systems (EWS)

• To graduate college and career ready, students need to successfully navigate several key transitions and acquire a set of academic behaviors - in short they need to learn how to succeed at school

• Students signal that they are on- or off-track towards these outcomes through their attendance, behavior, and course performance-the ABC’s

Substantial Numbers of Future Dropouts can be identified in as early as 6th grade

Robert Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund

The Primary Off-Track Indicators for Potential Dropouts:

• Attendance - <85-90% school attendance

• Behavior - “unsatisfactory” behavior mark in at least one class

• Course Performance – A final grade of “F” in Math and/or English or Credit-Bearing HS Course

Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an Early Warning Indicator

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

11th

12th

Gradua

tion

+ 1 ye

ar

Grade in School

% of students

who are on-track to

graduation

Attendance

Behavior

Math

Literacy

Sixth-grade students with one or more of the indicators may have only a 15% to 25% chance of graduating from high

school on time or within one year of expected graduation

Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities.

In High Poverty School Districts, 75% or More of Eventual Dropouts Can be Identified between

the 6th and 9th Grade

Percent of Dropouts That Can Be Identified between the 6th and 9th

grade-Boston Class of 2003

32%

43%24%

End of 6th Grade

End of 9th Grade

No Off TrackIndicator 6th-9thGrade

Core Idea of EWS cont.

• By tracking the ABC’s it is possible to identify when students are beginning to fall off-track, providing time to intervene and alter their trajectory through school and beyond

• Using ABC Early Indicator data it is possible to design more targeted and effective interventions at the individual, classroom, school, and even district and state levels.

Findings from Chicago Consortium of School Research

• Virtually all students with a B average or higher in the 9th grade graduate in 4 years

• The vast majority of students with multiple failures in the 9th grade will not graduate

• Students with D+/C averages are harder to predict and can go either way

If graduation is determined by coursegrades, what affects grades?

• Students’ behaviors are the main drivers of course failure

– Attendance is 8 times more predictive of failure than prior test scores

• Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of course failures

• Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total)• Student behaviors--absences and effort- explain an additional 61% (73% total)

– Attendance is also the strongest predictor of course grades, although prior academic ability is also very important for high grades

Impact of Attendance on Achievement

Post-Secondary Success Indicators-Early Findings

• Not having any off-track indicators for high school graduation leads to increased odds of post-secondary attainment

• But to have high odds of post-secondary attainment students need to have a very strong 9th grade year-strong attendance, no behavior problems, B or better average-and be on-age

• Low ABC’s predict high school dropout, high ABC’s predict post-secondary success

• Means we can have unified high school graduation to post-secondary success indicator system

Impact of Attendance on High School Graduation

and Post-Secondary Enrollment

The Cost of Inaction is High:School Disengagement in Middle Grades Precedes Involvement with the Juvenile Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy

Males Incarcerated in High School-Philadelphia

33%

67%

No 6th GradeIndicator

6th Grade OffTrack Indicator

Females Who Give Birth in High School-Philadelphia

33%

67%

No 6th GradeIndicator6th Grade OffTrack Indicator

How Can Early Warning Systems

Be Used?

Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS)

• Combine ready access, at the classroom level, to on- and off-track indicators (the ABC’s), with regular time to analyze the data and an organized response system that can act upon early warning data in both a systematic and tailored manner.

• The most effective school-level intervention systems combined whole-school/classroom prevention, targeted problem solving and moderate intensity supports when prevention does not work, and case managed high intensity supports for the neediest students.

• Investments in mission-building, professional development, coaching and networking are critical to success

Emerging Thresholds for Off-Track Indicators

• Attendance-missing 10% or 20 or more days of school

• Behavior-Two or more behavior infractions in a year (e.g. suspensions) or sustained mild misbehavior

• Course Performance-Failing a math or English class in the middle grades, failing two or more credit bearing courses in high school

• Specific cut points can and will vary around these normative thresholds depending on trade offs between efficiency (i.e. minimizing false positives) and yield (capturing large percent of students on path to dropping out), as well as, whether triggers are being set for monitoring and problem solving vs. substantial intervention

Early Warning Indicator Data ToolSt

uden

t 07-08: Days

Absent

08-09: Days

Absent07-08: Att.%

08-09: Att.% Dec Mar Dec Mar Dec Mar

Reading Grade Level

Math PSSA 2008

Literacy PSSA 2008

A 9 19 95% 84% 5 6 C D D C 8 Proficient Basic

B 12 13 93% 89% 7 8 D C F D 6.5 Below Basic Basic

C 48 69 73% 43% 10 10 F F F D 5.5 Below Basic

Below Basic

AssessmentsMath

GradesAttendanceBehavior

CommentsLiteracy Grades

• Without additional support to provide interventions at the scale and intensity required to meet each student’s individual needs, teachers can easy feel overwhelmed. 

• Research has shown that when teachers feel overwhelmed by the level of challenge in high needs schools, they will often lower expectations for students.

Keeping Students On-Track Pre-K to Post-Secondary-

Consider Both Academic and Social Needs

• Pre-K and Elementary Grades-Core academic competencies and socialized into the norms of schooling in a joyful manner

• Middle Grades-Intermediate academic skills (reading comprehension and fluency, transition from arithmetic to mathematics) and a need for adventure and camaraderie

• High School-Transition to adult behaviors and mind set and a path to college and career readiness, as well as the right extra help for students with below grade level skills

Focus on the ABC’s-Attendance• Understand that chronic absenteeism (missing a month or more of school) is

much more widespread, particularly in high poverty communities, then is commonly recognized and that like bacteria in hospitals creates havoc

• Organize comprehensive efforts built around knowledge that from the middle grades on student absenteeism driven by combination of student choice, school factors driving students away, and out of school factors pulling them away

• Create programing that compels students to come to school-e.g. most engaged middle grades students often found in cognitively rich activities which combine teamwork with performance (Robotics, debate, drama, chess etc.)

• Build an attendance problem solving capacity into schools and districts extend it via a network of relationships with wrap around service providers

Focus on ABC’s-Behavior and Effort

• Model and teach resiliency and self-management/organization skills

• Model and teach staying out of trouble skills

• Build Success Scripts in student’s heads (effort leads to success), work to undermine Failure Scripts (life is capricious, withholding effort keeps you psychologically safe)

Focus on ABC’s- Course Performance

• Provide course coaching-assistance, support, and on occasion even advocacy which enables students to succeed in their courses-including monitoring assignment completion, and preparation for tests and quizzes, and help with catching up when absent

• Make sure tutoring efforts are linked tightly with needs and expectations of student’s courses (don’t work on fractions if Friday’s test is on probability)

• For high school students, provide opportunity for rapid credit recovery

Need to Build and Provide Transitional Support from High School to College and Career

• All students need a clear pathway from college to post-secondary schooling and training

• Many students will need additional supports - both academic and social - to successfully make the transition

• Currently no one owns the space between students meeting HS graduation requirements and starting college and career training. Do not really have a way to fund this-falls between cracks of public school system and state university system

In Highest Needs Schools Combine Whole School Transformation

with Enhanced Student and Teacher Supports

Designing Schools to Meet High Educational Challenges

Whole School is Organized and Supported to Enable:

· Effective instruction (including teacher professional development connected to the early warning indicators)

· Safe and positive learning climate· High student engagement (Attend, Behave, Try Hard)· Collective efficacy and all graduate mission among

staff

Extra-Supports Provided: · At first sign of student need· To all students who need it (no triage) · Diagnostic tools insure it’s the right support

(e.g. cognitive or socio-emotional)· Moderate intensity but if needed continuously

available

Intensive One on One Supports:· Driven by needs assessment· Case managed· Professionally provided when whole

school and moderate intensity supports are not sufficient

Inte

nsit

y of

inte

rven

tion

sProviding the Right Support to the Right Student at the Right Timeat the Scale and Intensity Required

Data Supports• Easy access to student data on the

Early Warning Indicators• Benchmarks tied to national and state

standards• On-site facilitator to leverage EWI data

Professional Development Supports

• Job-embedded coaching - Math and English instructional coaches

• Professional learning community• Professional development linked to

grade/subject specific instructional practice

Student SupportsInterventions to address early warning indicators of• Attendance• Behavior • Course Performance

The Diplomas Now Model

Multi Tiered Response to Intervention Model• 10 to 15 City Year AmeriCorps members: whole

school and targeted academic and socio-emotional supports

• Communities In Schools on-site coordinator: case managed supports for highest need students

75-90 students

Teacher Team (4 teachers)

• Whole school attendance, positive behavior, college-going culture

• Strengthening student resiliency

Organizational Supports• Inter-disciplinary and subject

focused common planning time• Bi-weekly EWI meetings• On-site school transformation

facilitator

Instructional Supports• Double dose math & English• Extra help labs• Common college preparatory or

high school readiness curricula

Attendance Behavior Course Performance

Diplomas Now partnered with three Philadelphia high poverty middle schools in 2009-2010. These schools average 615 students, 84% of whom are eligible to receive free or reduced price lunch. Below are the aggregate results for all three schools from the 2009-10 school year.

Diplomas Now Sample Results: Philadelphia Middle Schools

# of Students with less than 80% Attendance

# of Students with 3 or more negative behavior marks

June 2009 June 2010 June 2009 June 2010

82% Reduction

78% Reduction

52% Reduction55%

Reduction

MathEnglish

# of Students receiving an F in Math or English

June 2009 June 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

20

40

60

80

100

05

101520253035

Help Broker Policy Reviews • Schools and communities need to measure and act on

chronic absenteeism-the number of students who miss a month or more of school (also measure those who miss a week or less).

• Schools and communities need positive behavior support programs and alternatives to suspensions and may need to re-examine their disciplinary policies

• Schools and communities need effective second chance and credit recovery programs which hold students accountable but provide a reason for them to keep trying

Solve the Funding Conundrum • We spend large amounts on youth recovery efforts with low odds

of success-juvenile justice etc.

• We need to find ways to pool and shift youth development dollars so that more funding is available for proven prevention strategies

• We also need to view supporting early warning systems-including teacher time and community supports-as a high value Title 1 investment

• Implementing an Early Warning System should be a required and funded component of school turnaround

Know and Understand the Graduation Challenge in Your Community-

Four Studies that Matter

• Segmentation Study- How many students dropout each year, how far are they from graduation, how old are they?

• Cohort/Early Warning Indicator (EWI) Study –How early and with what indicators can potential dropouts be identified?

• Distribution of Students with EWI-In which middle and high schools are students with early warning indicators concentrated, which schools do most dropouts attend?

• Success in Post-Secondary-What percent of students from each high school graduate from college?

Keeping States and Communities On Track-CMP Benchmarks

• To achieve a 90% graduation rate for the Class of 2020, we need clear goals along the way:

– By 2012-13, substantially increase number of students reading on grade level by 4th grade; chronic absenteeism significantly reduced; needs assessment conducted for all low graduation rate communities

– By 2014-15, every low graduation state & school district has early warning & intervention system; a non-profit success mentor for every 15-20 off-track students

– By 2016, all low graduation rate high schools in process of being transformed or replaced; compulsory school age increased to 18 in all states; clear pathways to college and career for all (including dropouts)

The Good News is

• We know why students dropout, which schools they dropout from and what the warning signs are

• Effective interventions and examples of substantial improvement exist, even in cities once viewed as unreformable and states viewed as too poor

• We are left with a giant engineering challenge of getting the right supports, to the right students, at the right time, at the scale and intensity required

• America is good at engineering challenges

For more information

• Visit the Everyone Graduates Center website at www.every1graduates.org

• E-mail Robert Balfanz at rbalfanz@jhu.edu and Joanna Fox at jfox@jhu.edu