Reducing Air PollutionChallenges and Opportunities

New Jersey Clean Air Council

April 14, 2010

2

Challenges

• Reductions in upwind states– National Rules

• Local controls– Low hanging fruit is all

gone

• Regional competition– Ports as an example– Regional coordination

• Multi-Pollutant planning– Harmonizing control

efforts across multiple pollutants

3

Topics Covered

• What does the science say?– The MD Conceptual Model … or

• Where does our air pollution come from and what do we do about it?

• What are we doing?– Local versus regional control programs

– What does the preliminary modeling tell us?

– How are we doing with new local control programs?

• Innovative state initiatives

– How are we doing with “National” rules to reduce transport?

• Will we make it?– Are we on schedule?

4

Progress in Cleaning Maryland’s Air181

135 137

151 152147 143

137126

121

80

120

160

200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*

1-H

our

Ozo

ne (

ppb)

1-Hour Ozone

17.1

15.8 15.9

14.5

15.616.215.9

10

14

18

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Ann

ual P

M2.

5 (

ug/m

3 )

Annual Fine Particulate

41 4139

35

4241

37

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Dai

ly P

M2.

5 (

ug/m

3 )

30

34

38

42

46Daily Fine Particulate

8-Hour Ozone

110 110106 103

91 94

107 107 104

95 93 91

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

8-H

our

Ozo

ne (

ppb)

60

100

140

What Have We Learned from All of This?

What Have We Learned from All of This?

*2008 data are preliminary.

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• Recent research has identified two new concepts that significantly affect:– Our understanding of how ozone builds up each day– The need for more national emission reduction programs

• These new areas are:– The existence of an “Elevated Reservoir” or “Transport

Cloud” of very high ozone sitting above the Mid-Atlantic during the early morning hours on bad ozone days

– The transport and build-up of ozone and ozone precursors at night

* Much of our work on ozone applies for summertime PM as well

• Recent research has identified two new concepts that significantly affect:– Our understanding of how ozone builds up each day– The need for more national emission reduction programs

• These new areas are:– The existence of an “Elevated Reservoir” or “Transport

Cloud” of very high ozone sitting above the Mid-Atlantic during the early morning hours on bad ozone days

– The transport and build-up of ozone and ozone precursors at night

* Much of our work on ozone applies for summertime PM as well

The Science

Two Significant New Findings

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The Elevated Ozone Reservoir

• Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large reservoir of ozone sits, trapped aloft by a nocturnal inversion, above the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.

– Ozone levels in the reservoir are routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb.

– In the morning, ozone levels at the surface are very low – 20 to 30 ppb.

• In the morning (9 to 11), the ozone in the reservoir mixes down to the surface and ground-level monitors surge from about 20 to 30 ppb to about 60 to 90 ppb.– The morning surge

• Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large reservoir of ozone sits, trapped aloft by a nocturnal inversion, above the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.

– Ozone levels in the reservoir are routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb.

– In the morning, ozone levels at the surface are very low – 20 to 30 ppb.

• In the morning (9 to 11), the ozone in the reservoir mixes down to the surface and ground-level monitors surge from about 20 to 30 ppb to about 60 to 90 ppb.– The morning surge

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Ozone (ppb)

He

igh

t (f

t)

Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)

Beltsville, MDGood Moderate Unhealthy for

Sensitive GroupsUnhealthy

Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft

of 110 ppb110 ppb

Ozone-reduced surface layer

<< 40 ppb40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Ozone (ppb)

He

igh

t (f

t)

Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)

Beltsville, MDGood Moderate Unhealthy for

Sensitive GroupsUnhealthyGood Moderate Unhealthy for

Sensitive GroupsUnhealthy

Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft

of 110 ppb110 ppb

Ozone-reduced surface layer

<< 40 ppb40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft

of 110 ppb110 ppb

Ozone-reduced surface layer

<< 40 ppb40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

7

Hour By Hour Ozone - Back in 1990’s

8

Still Happening in 2000’s

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So…Where Does Our Air Pollution Come From?

• Local emissions in Cities (nonattainment areas) – Reducing local emissions is very

important• Three distinct types of transport

– Short range - City to City – “local” transport

• “Ground level” transport• Washington to Baltimore, Baltimore to

New Jersey, Jersey to …etc.– Two different types of “aloft” (up-

over-and-down) transport1. Westerly, Long range transport

o “Aloft” transport - 100s of mileso Generally from W or NW

2. Southerly, Nocturnal Low Level Jet (NLLJ)

o “Aloft” transport at night !!!o 100s of mileso SW to NE funneled along the Atlantic

by the ocean and the mountains

• Local emissions in Cities (nonattainment areas) – Reducing local emissions is very

important• Three distinct types of transport

– Short range - City to City – “local” transport

• “Ground level” transport• Washington to Baltimore, Baltimore to

New Jersey, Jersey to …etc.– Two different types of “aloft” (up-

over-and-down) transport1. Westerly, Long range transport

o “Aloft” transport - 100s of mileso Generally from W or NW

2. Southerly, Nocturnal Low Level Jet (NLLJ)

o “Aloft” transport at night !!!o 100s of mileso SW to NE funneled along the Atlantic

by the ocean and the mountains

Four Distinct Parts

Aloft transport creates and fills the “Elevated

Reservoir” of air pollution (measured

above the Mid-Atlantic during the night and

morning) before all bad ozone days

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A Two Part Control Strategy

We must continue to adopt aggressive local control measures to reduce the local contribution

We will need significant help to reduce the transported ozone and ozone precursors in the elevated reservoir

11

Local Controls or National Controls?

• Both

• Local Controls– Clearly help reduce air pollution

– “Clean Hands” are critical when pushing for controls in upwind states

– Local controls for other concerns (toxics/nuisance) are essential

• National Controls– Clearly a huge priority

– Have earlier actions like the NOx SIP Call worked?

• What additional emission reductions are needed?

12

55.5%of Units

22.3%of Units

2 1 25

18

23

77

50

13

8

30

15

62 2

2 3 5 10

28

51

128

178191

199

229

244250 252 254

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250Number of Units

Cumulative Total Units

2004 Regional NOx “SIP Call”

Phase I

Minimal SCR UnitsExpect Minimal NOx

Reductions

Phase II

Large Number of SCR Units InstalledExpect SIGNIFIANT NOx Reductions

Especially after 2003-2004Air Quality

should decrease dramaticallyData courtesy of The Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC).

77.8% of Units Installedbetween 2003-2007 Scheduled Startup Units

BY 2011, ABOUT 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF THE COAL

FIRED CAPACITY IN THE EAST

WILL BE CONTROLLED BY

SCRS

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Preliminary Screening Modeling

• NY DEC did a screening modeling run, assuming an additional 40% NOX reduction from all sectors domain-wide

• Results showed almost all sites below 75 ppb– New “reconsidered” standard likely to be lower

• Other states east of the Mississippi were assumed to make similar NOx reductions

• Analysis used for all of the 13 states in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR)

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We’ve used the screening modeling to come up with a very rough estimate of the OTR’s share. The OTR’s share of the 40%

reduction is about 500,000 tons per year of NOx

Reductions Inside the OTR

Reductions – through 2012 - that are “on-the-books” or “on-the-way”

New Reductions

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Stationary and Area Source Controls

• Looking at 13 new control measures– Many just within the OTR– Some that should be national

rules– Working with stakeholders

• Measures include:– Electricity Generating Units

(EGUs)– Other stationary sources– Area sources like consumer

products and paints– Non-traditional programs like

HEDD (High Electricity Demand Days)

– More

16

Mobile Source Controls

• Looking at 5 to 10 new control measures– Many just within the OTR - Some that should be national

rules

• Includes– Tailpipe standards, fuels, VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled),

idling and non-road sources like ports, ships, diesel equipment, lightering and more

17

State Innovations

• Both MD and NJ have a reputation for pushing innovative state programs– Maryland’s Healthy Air Act– “Code Orange” telework– High electricity demand days– Smart growth and VMT strategies– Integrating climate change and

criteria pollutant control programs– Innovations are sometimes non-

regulatory and more difficult to quantify and enforce

• Non-traditional programs are likely to become a more significant part of the solution with a new ozone standard in the 60 to 70 ppb range

18

Good News For NJ

• Maryland’s Healthy Air Act now being implemented– May 2009 and 2012 deadlines

for NOx controls– January 2010 and 2013 deadlines

for SO2 and Hg controls– All controls installed on time

• 6 plants – 9 units• Major investment in

Scrubbers, SCRs, ACI, baghouses and other controls

• Almost $3 Billion investment into state-of-the-art pollution control equiptment

• Yes … Maryland is pretty much directly upwind of NJ

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So … How Are We Doing?• Using 500,000 TPY NOx

reduction as a target

• “New” reductions that are under development are currently estimated to get us close – New measures being worked on

by the OTC Committees

– Inside-the-OTR reductions from new national rules (eg. the CAIR replacement rule)

– Continuing benefits from existing programs (eg. new mobile reductions resulting from fleet turnover)

500,000 TPY

Ongoing Reductions Shortfall

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Reducing Transport - National Rules

• Significant progress under way

• Partnership with Midwest States, EPA and stakeholders working well

• September 2, 2009 State Collaborative letter signed by 17 states– Strong recommendation on

new national rules

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The Collaborative Modeling

• Joint effort between Midwest and OTC states

• Looked at what would be needed to adequately address transport and satisfy the transport provisions - Section 110(a)(2)(D) - of the Clean Air Act

• Showed that a national program that focuses only on EGUs will not be enough

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The Collaborative Letter• Asks for … “A timely and robust federal

program that requires substantial regional emission reductions from mobile sources, area sources and large point sources such as EGUs…”

• Specifically mentions national rules for:– Electric Generating Units (EGUs)

– Industrial, Commercial and Institutional Boilers

– Other large stationary sources of NOx (like cement kilns)

– Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings

– Consumer Products

– Mobile sources (such as new engine standards and fuels)

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Priority National Rules

• OTC statement and Collaborative letter identified priority national rules

• Recommended national rules– Highest Priority

• EGUs (CAIR replacement rule)• ICI Boilers• Cement Kilns• New federal tailpipe standards

– Others• Other large stationary sources of

NOx• AIM Coatings• Consumer products• Cleaner, environmentally sensitive

fuel• Several others

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The Schedule

• On September 16, 2009, EPA announced that it will reconsider the ozone standard that was set on March 12, 2008.

• They also announced an expedited schedule

• Because of the expedited schedule, there will be very little delay and no change to the OTCs current schedule

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Updated Timeline

EPA Final Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS

8/2010

EPA Final Designations No later than

8/2011

State Attainment Demonstration SIPs Due to EPA

Dec. 2013

Likely Attainment Dates for Reconsidered Ozone StandardModerate – 2017 (Requires 3 years of clean data in 2014, 2015 and 2016)Serious – 2020 (Requires 3 years of clean data in 2017, 2018 and 2019)

Begin inventory work; do preliminary modeling

Final SIPs submitted to EPA

Identify control measures & develop technical information

Complete air quality modeling of measures States propose SIPs

States begin rule development process

EPA Proposed Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS

12/2009

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Wrap-Up• Ozone and fine particle levels

continue to drop– This is great news

• Tougher ozone and fine particle standards are on the horizon– Still lot’s of work to do

• The regional air quality planning process is on schedule– Suite of new local measures

identified and scheduled for adoption in June 2010

– National measures to reduce transport are critical

• Will need significant help from EPA