reasons why: emerging market debt · • this is coupled with analysis of ... hong kong bangkok...
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Reasons why series – Page 1 of 5
Reasons why: Emerging market debtFebruary 2017
For professional investors and financial advisers only – not for use by retail investors
Attractive yields in emerging market (EM) debt 1
2
Brett Diment
Head of Global Emerging Market Debt
“ Emerging market debt offers an attractive solution in a yield starved world”
Source: BP Statistical Review, World Steel Association, China Customs, Bloomberg, January 2017.
China is of far greater importance for commodities than the US
Yield (%)
EM HC Sovereign EM LC Sovereign DM Sovereign
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sovereign: JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index; EM LC Sovereign: JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index; DM Sovereign: JPM GBI Global Index.Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guide to future results.Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2016. For illustrative purposes only.
Commodity Consumption (%)
0102030405060708090
100
Copper Coal Aluminium Nickel Iron ore Zinc
China US Rest of world
• China is the world’s largest consumer for many commodities, and its consumption dwarves that of the USA
3
4
5
There has been a dramatic improvement in EM currency valuations
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2016. For illustrative purposes only.Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Figures may appear not to add due to rounding. For illustrative purposes only.
Our investment process• We focus on the entire EM debt
universe to maximise the return potential and minimise risk.
• We conduct comprehensive country research, set in the context of global economic developments, which forms the foundation of our investment process.
• We look at factors such as:
• Key macroeconomic variables
• The political environment
• Fiscal and monetary policy developments and major risk.
• This is coupled with analysis of technical market indicators such as:
• The nature of instruments
• Relative value
• Liquidity
• Demand and supply imbalances.
Diversification
Emerging market resources
• The correction in EM currencies over the past five years is similar to the correction seen during the Asia crisis when EM currencies generally changed from fixed to floating exchange rates.
• At the start of 2016 EM currencies approached the bottom of their 20-year range.
The EM debt universe offers many attractive opportunities across hard currency sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns and corporates, as well as in local currency sovereigns and foreign exchange. We build diverse portfolios from the bottom up, investing in nearly 50 countries.
Percentage GDP growth, constant prices
-2-1012345678
202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010Forecast
Euro area Major advanced economies (G7) Emerging market and developing economies
• Combined emerging market debt and equity expertise
• Local presence, with over 80 EM investment professionals worldwide
• $90bn in EM assets, with over $11bn in EM debt
• Over 80 countries and 1,000 companies researched
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 30 September 2016.
Budapest
SingaporeJakarta
Hong Kong
Bangkok
London
Sao Paulo
Kuala Lumpur
Sydney
Exceptional depth and breadth
Reasons why series – Page 2 of 5
Source: Aberdeen, BIS (Bank for International Settlements), 30 November 2016.GDP (Gross Domestic Product) weighted index of 14 emerging market countries.
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Nov 16Nov 14Nov 12Nov 10Nov 08Nov 06Nov 04Nov 02Nov 00Nov 98Nov 96
Average real effective exchange rate in EM (ex-China, 2010=100)
Our strategiesOur investment process
EMD Plus invests in hard currency sovereign, quasi sovereign and corporate bonds, local currency sovereigns and currencies
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund ($1,626m)
Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Investment Grade Bond Fund ($101m)
Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified
AuM: $4,265m
EMD Local Currency invests primarily in local currency sovereign bonds and currencies
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund ($184m)
Benchmark: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified
AuM: $1,586m
EMD Corporate invests primarily in hard currency corporate bonds
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund ($244m)
Benchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified
AuM: $759mA
EMD Core invests primarily in hard currency sovereign and quasi sovereign bonds
No pool fund
Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified
AuM: $ 1,587m
EMD Frontier invests in hard and local currency sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns and corporate bonds and currencies from frontier markets
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Frontier Markets Bond Fund ($78m)
Benchmark: JP Morgan NEXGEM
AuM: $78m
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 30 September 2016.
$11bnin assets under management
A $1,157m including off benchmark allocations to EM corporates within our EMD Plus strategy.B $1,423m including allocations to Asian local currency strategy within the Asian Diversified Strategy and single country Thai and Indonesian funds.C $994m including allocations to Asian credit within the Asian diversified strategy.
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. 30 September 2016.Notes: EMD (Emerging Market Debt); EMBI (Emerging Market Bond Index); CEMBI (Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index); NEXGEM (Next Generation Markets Index); WGBI (World Government Bond Index); ALBI (Asian Local Bond Index).
Reasons why series – Page 3 of 5
EMD Total Return invests in hard and local currency sovereigns and quasi sovereign bonds (more than 50% government owned) and currencies from emerging market and develop market countries
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global II – Emerging Markets Total Return Bond Fund ($59m)
Benchmark: Citigroup WGBI US
AuM: $68m
Asian Local Currency invests primarily in Asian local currency denominated bonds
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Asian Local Currency Short Duration Bond Fund ($206m)
Benchmark: iBoxx Asia ex Japan Sovereign 1 - 3y
AuM: $962B
Asian Credit invests primarily in hard currency bonds issued by Asian corporates
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Asian Credit Bond Fund ($30m)
Benchmark: JPMorgan Asia Credit Index
AuM: $886mC
Asian Diversified invests in hard and local currency sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns and corporate bonds and currencies from Asian countries
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global II – Asian Bond Fund ($80m)
Vehicle domiciled in US ($30m)
Benchmark: Markit iBoxx ALBI
AuM: $217m
Single Country invest primarily in local currency sovereign, quasi-sovereign and corporate bonds
Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Indian Bond Fund ($80m)
Vehicles domiciled in Thailand ($224m), Indonesia ($48m)
AuM: $391m
The investment team
Asian Fixed IncomeEMD Sovereign
Kevin Daly (28) (L)Viktor Szabó (16) (L)Andrew Stanners (16) (L)Anthony Simond (8) (L)Patty Cao (5) (L)Imre Tajti (14) (B)
Kenneth Akintewe (16) (S)Leong Lin Jing (7) (S)Lee Jin Yang (5) (S)Edmund Goh (7) (KL)Pongtharin Sapayanon (14) (BK)Suhardi Tanujaya (22) (J)
Thomas Drissner (14) (S)Gareth Nicholson (13) (S)Jeremy Teng (10) (S)Carol Yuan (10) (SY)Henry Loh (3) (S)Mohammad Hasif (6) (KL)Tai Li-Yian (3) (K)
Max Wolman (17) (L)Paul Lukaszewski (16) (L)Kathy Collins (9) (L)Samuel Bevan (5) (L)Henrique Morato (3) (L)Wendy Tjandra (18) (J)
Adam McCabe (16) (S)Head of Asian Fixed Income
Edwin Gutierrez (21) (L)Head of EMD Sovereign
Siddharth Dahiya (11) (L)Head of EMD Corporate
EMD Corporate
Sovereign Corporate
Brett Diment (25) (L)Head of Global EMD
Specialised Resources
Portfolio AnalystsNeil Clayton (12) (L)May Hoang (8) (L)
QuantEcho Yang (9) (S)
DealersAndrew Ng (10) (S)
Abel Koh (5) (S)Russell Beer (15) (L)
Restructuring & Insolvency
Cecely Hugh (10) (L)
Product SpecialistsKaren Bater (32) (P)
Helen Winter (20) (L)
Global interaction:
• Team-based, formal weekly portfolio review and six-weekly strategy meetings
• Regular meetings with EM equity, global macro and US fixed income teams
(-) denotes years industry experience. L= London, B = Budapest, S = Singapore, KL = Kuala Lumpur, BK = Bangkok, J = Jakarta, SY = Sydney Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 30 September 2016.
Experienced, stable team with a broad range of specialist skills
Reasons why series – Page 4 of 5
Reasons why series – Page 5 of 5 MLD ref: 25750-010217-1121026909 02/17
The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested
Contact detailsShould you require any further information, please visit aberdeen-asset.com for details of your local Aberdeen representative.
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