ready for growth! what is the health of your customers' markets?
TRANSCRIPT
Ready for Growth! What is the Health of Your Customers’ Markets?
Keith Robinson, Research Manager
Electronic Manufacturing EquipmentElectronic Manufacturing Equipment
June 29, 2011
Today’s Presenter
Keith Robinson, Research
Manager
Frost & Sullivan
2
Focus Points
• Population Trends
• Analysis on the Energy Market
• Overview of the Connected Home
• Analysis on the Connected TV Market
• Analysis on the Smartphone Market
• Key Automotive Trends and Analysis
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• Key Automotive Trends and Analysis
• Other Vertical Markets of Interest
• Regional Opportunities
Global Population
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Rise of the Middle Class
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The Current Impact of Political Conflicts on Energy
• The majority of remaining oil reserves are situated in
locations such as Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and
Central Asia. This is causing a change in the
political/power landscape of the world.
• When a country nationalizes oil, it typically leads to:
o Increased control over the price of oil
o Oil companies losing control over oil supplies
o Dwindling oil-related investment opportunities
• The majority of remaining oil reserves are situated in
locations such as Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and
Central Asia. This is causing a change in the
political/power landscape of the world.
• When a country nationalizes oil, it typically leads to:
o Increased control over the price of oil
o Oil companies losing control over oil supplies
o Dwindling oil-related investment opportunities
Renewable Energy Market: Renewable Net Electricity Generation Forecast (World), 2006-2030
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o Dwindling oil-related investment opportunities
o Oil revenues may lead to large scale armament
programs (arms race)
o Creation of a dual structure – countries control
the manufacturing and marketing activities, oil
companies control the downstream activities
o Dwindling oil-related investment opportunities
o Oil revenues may lead to large scale armament
programs (arms race)
o Creation of a dual structure – countries control
the manufacturing and marketing activities, oil
companies control the downstream activities There has been a deliberate shift towards renewable energy
generation. Approximately 60 countries currently use
investment subsidies to facilitate renewable energy production.
These are unique to the operating subsidies. Investment
subsidies provide financial assistance through grants, low-
interest loans, education, or tax incentives to encourage
investment in a industry.
..
Note : All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source : Frost & Sullivan, EPIA and KPMG.
Evolution of Renewable Technologies
Renewable Energy Market: Evolution of Renewable Installed Capacity (World), 2009 and 2015
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Note: All figures are rounded; Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Connected Home
Safety
Gas and smoke detection, fire detection, leak detection, notification systems
Security
Intrusion detection, remote audio/video surveillance, access control, camera systems
Entertainment
Audio and volume controls, multi-media room controls, home theater/entertainment system controls, IPTV, digital video recorders and set top boxes, gaming controls
Connected Home: Interconnection Trends (World), 2020
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control, camera systems
Health
Health/medical alert systems, health/medical/fitness, records vaults, patient monitoring
Energy Management
Lighting control and automation, zone and climate controls, plug-in systems, fan speed controls, load shedding systems, smart metering and grid-connected controls
Home Controls and Automation
HVAC and temperature controls, day lighting systems, drapery controls, multi-room controls/intercoms, touch-screens, irrigation controls, pool and spa controls, appliance controls
Monitoring
Alarm monitoring, remote home monitoring
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Connected TV Market
Connected TV Market: Unit Shipments Forecast (World), 2009-2013
• The increasing demand for interconnection will drive
demand for connected TV. The connected TV is a natural
progression of the technology evolving from 3-D TV and
OLED TV technology.
• The connected TV will be part of the connected home of
the future. While it sounds futuristic at this point, hardware
and software innovations are moving towards this goal.
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Source: Display Search; Frost & Sullivan analysis.
• The connected home portfolio will include subscription
video, residential security, patient monitoring, home
automation, appliances, internet services, and telephone
services, among others.
• The shift to connected TV will be fueled by the need for a
device within the home that can be used as a viewing
interface to control and monitor all of the connected
devices within the home.
• Ericsson estimates that by 2020, there will be
approximately 50 billion connected devices.
Evolution of Mobile Software
Positioning of Smartphone Software Providers (World), 2011
Apple
Television Market Smartphone Market
Nokia
RIM
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Smartphone as
a core
business
strategy
Participation in
the evolving
markets
Tablet Market Connected Devices Market
Nokia
Smartphone Market
400
500
600
Revenues (
$ M
illio
n ) 40
50
Gro
wth
Rate
s (
%)
Revenues Growth Rate
Smartphone Market: Unit Shipments Forecast (World), 2008-2014
• The smartphone market is expected to
record shipments of 246.9 million in
2010. It is anticipated to grow at an
aggressive pace to reach shipments of
506.0 million in 2014.
• The demand for smartphones is
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0
100
200
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Years
Revenues (
$ M
illio
n
10
20
30
Gro
wth
Rate
s (
%)
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis; ( M59D-65).
expected to surge during the forecast
period. This, in turn, will boost demand
for LCD and OLED manufacturing
equipment.
• Smartphone companies are continually
focusing on increasing features and a
wide range of technologies.
• Smartphones will continue on the path of
convergence during the forecast period.
Top Global Trends in the Automotive Industry in 2020
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Over 43 OEMs Expected To Compete in the Global EV Market With Over 75 models By 2015
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Electric Vehicles and Hybrid Electric Vehicles
•Frost & Sullivan's extensive research has estimated the traction motor market for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Electric Vehicles (EV) and Electric Two Wheelers (E2W) will reach approximately 44 million units globally by 2017.
•European and North American markets are the key drivers for HEV and EV with a staggering estimated CAGR (2011-2017) of 50 percent & 63 percent respectively in the European market.
•China is the biggest market for electric two wheelers with an estimated market size of 19 million in 2009 growing at a CAGR of 9%
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estimated market size of 19 million in 2009 growing at a CAGR of 9% to 2017.
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles
Automotive Electronics Grow Faster than the Rest of the Market
Automotivesupplier market
55 7593
124 168230
304
513587
356417
720+3.4%
+5.6%
+6.4%
� Increased electronic contenet in vehicles is
Electrics / electronicscomponents & systems
CAGR
EUR billions
Automotive Electronics: Increased Usage of Electronics in Automotive (World), 2010
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Source: Strategy Analytics, Research Insight, McKinsey, SV
55 75
ElectronicsShare (%)
SuppliersShare (%)
VehiclesProduced(million unitsper annum)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
18
65
45
21 22 25 28 33
75
79
contenet in vehicles is actually outpacing the growth rate of vehicles. This trend isexpected tocontinue as more electronic content is added to vehicles.
EUR billions
+2.3%
Impact of Top Vertical Markets—Demand Analysis
ProjectedImpact on
High Impact
TelecomCAGR 9.8%
OthersCAGR 9.3%
AutomotiveCAGR 8.3%
Computing and StorageCAGR 8.1%
High Growth Impact
MediumGrowthImpact
SMT Placement Equipment Market: Impact of Top Vertical Markets (World), 2010 and 2017
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Impact on SMT
Placement Equipment
Market
Low Impact
Time Period2010 2017
Consumer ElectronicsCAGR 8.0%
LowGrowthImpact
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Regional Opportunities
Central and East Europe
Rest-of-Asia
Hig
h G
row
th>
15%
Mature Regions
Niche market manufacturing opportunities are expected to be stable in the Americas and
Growing Regions
SMT Manufacturing Equipment Market: Regional Electronics Migration Opportunities (World), 2010
Rest-of-World
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Western Europe
Americas
China
Lo
w G
row
th<
10
%
Limited Impact Heavily Impact
Growing Segments
Growth to be “boosted” by increasing migration of manufacturing investments and establishment of new manufacturing sites by OEMs and contract manufacturers
stable in the Americas and Western Europe
Mature Regions
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.Note: Size of the circles represents market size.
Establishment of New Manufacturing Lines
Gro
wth
R
ate
Regional Vertical Market Analysis
Automotive
Consumer
Electronics &
Telecom
Medical A&D Computing Others
Americas
Western Europe
Regional Vertical Market Opportunities (World), 2011
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Central & Eastern Europe
China
ROA
Rest of World
Strong Vertical Manufacturing Growth Weak Vertical Manufacturing GrowthSource: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Next Steps
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For Additional Information
Sarah Saatzer
Corporate Communications
Electronics & Manufacturing
(210) 477-8427
Kiran Unni
Industry Director
Measurement & Instrumentation
(210) 247-2495
22
Keith Robinson
Research Manager
Electronics Manufacturing Equipment
(210) 247-2402