ready. business plan prepared by marco maragliano for june 28, 2007
TRANSCRIPT
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ready
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Business plan prepared by Marco Maragliano for
June 28, 2007
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SOURCES
All data are based on the following sources:
• Automotive Club of Italy (ACI)• PRA (Public Automotive Register)• Automotive Observatory (Turin)• FEDERAICPA – Federal Association Car Concessionaires• UNRAE – National Union Foreign Representatives of Car Producers• GIPA (International Grouping Automotive Products)• Internet searches• Audipress• Personal contacts
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BLOCK ONE SUMMARY
We will go through:
• Socio-economical factors• Car population and its features• Car park value and his value• Main characteristics of diesel park • New or Second Hand? Statistics.
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Socio-demographic changes in Italian Automotive Market – Some considerations (1)
In the last 6 years motorists population increased by 6%
34.911.750
36.119.260
34.000.000 34.500.000 35.000.000 35.500.000 36.000.000 36.500.000
2006
2000
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Socio-demographic changes in Italian Automotive Market – Some considerations (2)
This gain is due only to the entry of “new” women at the wheel
2000 2006
Male 59,2% 57,0% - 76.803
Female 48,8% 43,0% +1.284.332
Total 100% 100%
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Socio-demographic changes in Italian Automotive Market – Some considerations (3)
Total Drivers Age 2000 2006
39,5% to 33,7%18-24 years 14,2 % 10,1%
25-34 years 25,3 % 23,6%
35-49 years 28,7 % 33,0%
60,5% to 66,3%50-64 years 22,0 % 22,9%
> 64 years 9,8% 10,4%
Total 100% 100%
Average age 41,3 years 43,0 years
The range of the youngest motorists progressively decreased.The entry of new licensed 18-year-old (or a little older) youths has been more limited than the new entries in other age ranges
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Some considerations (4)
Profession Driver’s Universe
Farmer……………………………………………..
Enterpreneur, Professional man, Manager…….
Artisan, Tradesman, Indipendent……………….
Salesman, White Collar………………………….
Employee, teacher………………………………..
Worker, Blue Collar………………………………
0,7%
7,7%
7,1%
3,1%
21,8%
21,0%
Active
61,4%
Pensioner………………………………………….
Housewife………………………………………….
Student…………………………………………….
Unemployed……………………………………….
Temporary non employed………………………..
16,6%
13,2%
6,6%
1,3%
1,0%
Non Active
38,6%
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Some considerations (5)
• The percentage of the actives considerably increased
• The average income of the motorist households increased (+14,6 %)
• The percentage of Students and Housewives decreased
Drivers Profession 2000 2006
Total actives 54,6% 61,4%
Total non-Active 45,4% 38,6%
Total 100% 100%
Non-Active Distribution
Pensioner 16,2% 16,5%
Housewife 14,0% 12,9%
Student 9,7% 6,8%
Unemployed, non Employed 5,5% 2,4%
Declared annual average income 19.307 € 22.131€
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Car population and its features (1)
In 6 years a gain of 3,4 million cars, equivalent to 12,9 %
26.490.000
29.908.000
24.000.000 25.000.000 26.000.000 27.000.000 28.000.000 29.000.000 30.000.000 31.000.000
Car Population
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Car population and its features (2)
The highest increase has been recorded in the South and particularly in the Islands, both in absolute and percentage terms
Population by Geographical Area
North-West
North-East Centre South Islands
2000 7.453.896 5.372.098 5.495.594 5.566.164 2.602.248
2006 7.528.444
+74.548
6.104.760
+732.662
5.979.475
+483.881
6.611.591
+1.045.427
3.684.496
+1.082.248
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Car population and its features (3)
In comparison with 2000, the Population has got older (0,4 years more) the part of population older than 10 years has become more substantial
% N° of Cars
Total 100% 24.490.000
Year 2000
Car Age
6,94
Age Average
0 – 2 years 16,9% 5.063.202
3 – 4 years 14,5% 4.334.007
5 – 6 years 15,1% 4.522.187
7 – 10 years 26,8% 8.003.000
> 10 years 26,7% 7.986.370
Total 100% 29.908.788
Year 2006
7,34
M. Maragliano for
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Car population and its features (4)
12.634
13.786
13.287
12.60912.929
14.132
14.689
In the last 12 months the annual mileage seems to be stabilized
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Car park value in € by Age Total Car Park Value: 221 billions €
2.524
4.531
6.865
9.889
14.285
0-2 years 3-4 years 5-6 years 7-10 years >10 years
Average: 7.254 €
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Car park value in € by Geographical Area
Total Car Park Value: 221 billions €
6.8915.886
7.1247.5878.400
North W North E Centre South Islands
Average: 7.254 €
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Car Park Value – by Brand
6.620
8.9848.412
7.492
13.597
5.685
24.885
16.362
6.243
5.9397.780
4.756
10.092
4.663
Fiat
Alfa R
omeo
Lanc
ia
Citroe
n
Peuge
ot
Renau
lt
Audi
Bmw
Ford
Mer
cede
sOpe
lVW
Japa
nese
Core
ans
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Car population and its features (5)
14.547 14.239
20.500
13.63013.106 12.822
12.504
9.366
11.656
10.08610.107
Sex Profession Ownership Driver’s Age
Male Female Active NonActive Personal Company 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 >65
Average
12.634
The “Road Runners” are: men, middle-age, active. Company cars are driven almost 8.000 km more than the average
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Car population and its features (6)
2000 2006
Total Population 26.490.000 29.908.766
Distribution by brand origin
Above all the share of German and Asiatic cars is growing
48,1% Italian 38,4%
14,7% French 15,5%
25,6% German 29,1%
6,1% Asiatic 11,3%
5,5% Other 5,7%
100% 100%
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Car population and its features (7)
The population motorization has considerably changed
In 2000 the Diesel Population was made up of 2.860.920 Cars, equivalent to 12,1%
In 2006 the Diesel Population is made up of 8.192.014 Cars, equivalent to 27,4%
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Main characteristics of Diesel Car Park (1)
12,0%
20,3%
16,8% 21,9%
29,0%1-2 years
3-4 years
5-6 years
7-10 years
>10 years
Average: 5,4 years
Lower age average compared to gasoline
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Main characteristics of Diesel Car Park (2)
Annual kilometer average: 17.337 Km
Average km. by car : 75.327 Km
Displacement
3,0
22,4 22,9
41,4
10,3
< 1250 cc 1251-1550 1551-1850 1851-2000 > 2000
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Main characteristics of Diesel Car Park (3)
24,6%
15,8%
42,7%
10,8%
6,1%
Italian
French
German
Asiatic
Others
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Main characteristics of Car Park (4)
Park by
Geographical
area
North W North E Centre South Islands
Age average 6,6 years6,6 years 7,2 years 7,7 years 8,6 years 7,8 years
Gasoline
Average age
68,0%
7,4 years
71,0%
8,1 years
71,1%
8,8 years
63,9%
9,9 years
67,2%
9,0 years
Diesel
Average age
32,0%
4,9 years
29,0%
5,2 years
28,9%
5,0 years
36,1%
6,3 years
32,8%
5,4 years
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Main characteristics of Diesel Car Park (5)
10.28110.834 11.035
10.030 9.793
17.584
18.45717.731
16.68815.941
North W North E Centre South Islands
Diesel cars of North-Centre are younger and makes more Km.
M. Maragliano for
Gasoline
Diesel
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Second hand car market in Europe
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Italy France Germany UK
Italian Market far below Germany and UK. Room enough to grow?
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Second hand cars in Europe 2006
9,0
18,0
14,6
24,5
0
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
Italy France Germany UK
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
Used New %used vs park
In Germany for every new car there are almost two second hand sold. In UK the highest % is due mainly of new Company cars ownership.
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Car import by age
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
2003 2004 2005 2006
2 - 5 years 1 year Total
M. Maragliano for
Almost 60% of imported cars are less than one year old
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Car Import by Brand (Top 5)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
2003 2004 2005 2006
VW Mercedes Audi FIAT BMW
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Second Hand vs New Cars. Sales Distribution
71,6 70,566,2
54,7 56,2
28,4 29,533,8
45,3 43,8
New
Second
Hand
M. Maragliano for
Second hand car sales substantially increase in Southern Italy
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Second Hand Sales Distribution
Second Hand
North W North E Centre South Islands
Gasoline 26,4% 29,8% 36,3% 45,5% 49,1%
Diesel 32,8% 28,6% 28,1% 45,0% 34,5%
M. Maragliano for
New (for comparaison)
Gasoline 73,6% 70,2% 63,7% 54,5% 50,9%
Diesel 67,2% 71,4% 71,9% 55,0% 65,5%
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New or Second Hand car?
66,4 67,8 67,7 65,1 65,0 64,8
33,6 32,2 32,3 34,9 35,0 35,2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
New Second Hand
%
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End Block One
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ready – Block Two
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BLOCK TWO SUMMARY
We will go through:
• Short Gantt
• Short Business Plan (Hypothesis, Figures and Projections)
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Weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
A Consultant Company
BSet up Automarketing
I.
C Italian website
D First office location
E Office furnitures
F Location contract
G Search of personnel
H Choice of Advt Media
I Selection of personnel
J Personnel hiring
K Start of Advertising
L Personnel availability
M .Operation start
M. Maragliano for
SHORT GANTT
Remark: before start Gantt operations, a training of the Manager is necessary.
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A The quickest and safe way is to select a consultant company linked with Automarketing (Bayer & Bayer?)
B Ownership must be of AUTOMARKETING Gmbh or AUTOMARKETING S.L. Develops. Notary act in Italy is necessary, as a cash deposit of minimum 10.000€. There is also a temporary option: to set up a Liaison Office. In this case Italian initial staff will act as liaison to AUTOMARKETING Fr. but it will be necessary to review almost entire Business Plan.
C It must be done in strict cooperation with AUTOMARKETING webmaster. Task of the Manager.
DThe choice of the location will have a remarkable impact on office operational expenses, therefore affecting the
economical section of the Business Plan. Joint decision of GM and Italian Manager
E Time include selection of furnitures, purchase, delivery. Task of the Manager.
FFor location contract it will be necessary the presence of AUTOMARKETING General Manager or a proxi to Italian
Manager.
G Advertising on newspaper necessary. PR activity preparation.
H Analysis of various media, internet indexing, final Advertising campaign plan. Task of the Manager.
I Considering 6 interviews a day, minimum one week for selection is necessary. Task of the Manager.
J Time necessary for legal practices. Task of Consultant Company.
KAdvertising will start same time of the personnel hiring in order to get as soon as possible potential customers.
Enquiries will be handled temporarily by the Manager. Start of PR activity.
L Time of physical availability of personnel
M As soon as personnel will be available telemarketing can start focused on target categories.
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SHORT BUSINESS PLAN
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The structure
1 manager
3 salesmen (1 senior and 2 juniors)
1 administrative
1 secretary
Salaries has been roughly calculated (to be reviewed by the Consultant) and kept at low level initially, to have the possibility of revision in case of good performances of the employees. Salesmen salary should include a small commission. The hypothesis is to hire as priority one skilled salesman able to train the other two (younger).
As already advanced in Gantt, cost of office may vary substantially in relation to the location.
The Revenues are based on a 10% commission on car sales.
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ADVERTISING
Four daily newspapers has been considered as one way of advertising: one issue by week for each of them – in the selected day of largest circulation – should make at medium term a solid ground.
To build up the awareness of AUTOMARKETING it could be necessary for one year an advertisement on the one of the largest automotive
monthly magazine like “Quattroruote”
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Redemption
Has been calculated on the total of readers and has been considered around 1%. We assume that this 1% may represent the total of the potential customers.
Essential for a good redemption is the message we will transfer to the readers: our project is innovative for the Italian market and therefore layout and bodycopy must draw reader’s attention to induce them to make a phone call or send an e-mail.
M. Maragliano for
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Catches
It’s the percentage ( 15%) of redemption, means the real prospective customers that show some interest and that may sign the preliminary contract.
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Risk Margin (1/5)
To be on the safe side, we used the highest possible: it means that Revenues (total people really interested on purchasing the car) has been divided by 5.
M. Maragliano for
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Considerations on Business Plan
This Business Plan doesn’t consider positive factors like:
• Multiple readings for newspapers and magazine• Mouth to mouth communication• Awareness increase – PR results• Sales push strategy like telemarketing and use of some
databases – financial promoters, lawyers, private enterpreneurs - already in my hands.
M. Maragliano for
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I supposed to increase of a 20% the monthly car selling like a mathematic progression : 10 cars sold during second month, 12 cars sold the third, 14.4 cars the fourth…
First year
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Fixed cost per month. €
Office rental 2500
electricity,water 200
telephone, internet 500
computer's amortization 375
furniture amortization 208
salesman1 800
Salesman2 800
Salesman3 800
Total 6183
Salaries Gross salaries+tax Gross+15th
Manager 2000 3922 4902
Administrative 1800 3214 4018
Secretary 1200 2143 2679
Total 11598
Grand Total 17781
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Advertising costs
Month4 daily
newspapers Quattroruote Others Total
Jan 8.000 16.000 0 24.000
Feb 8.000 16.000 2.000 26.000
Mar 8.000 16.000 3.000 27.000
Apr 8.000 16.000 4.000 28.000
May 8.000 16.000 4.000 28.000
Jun 8.000 16.000 6.000 30.000
Jul 8.000 16.000 2.000 26.000
Aug 8.000 0 0 8.000
Sep 8.000 16.000 4.000 28.000
Oct 8.000 16.000 2.000 26.000
Nov 8.000 16.000 2.000 26.000
Dec 8.000 16.000 7.000 31.000
Total 96.000 176.000 35.000 308.000
Average cost
25.667 month
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Variable costs
Month Advtg
Average adv. Salesmen%+
3000 travelling
costsCars sold x
monthAve profit
marginRevenues
10% 10% salesmen
Jan 24.000 27000 0,00 2.500 0,00 0,00
Feb 26.000 31500 10,00 2.500 25.000,00 2.500,00
Mar 28.000 34000 12,00 2.500 30.000,00 3.000,00
Apr 28.000 34500 14,00 2.500 35.000,00 3.500,00
May 28.000 35320 17,28 2.500 43.200,00 4.320,00
Jun 28.000 36183 20,73 2.500 51.825,00 5.182,50
Jul 28.000 37070 24,28 2.500 60.700,00 6.070,00
Aug 8.000 8000 0,00 2.500 0,00 0,00
Sep 26.000 36450 29,80 2.500 74.500,00 7.450,00
Oct 28.000 39950 35,80 2.500 89.500,00 8.950,00
Nov 28.000 41725 42,90 2.500 107.250,00 10.725,00
Dec 28.000 43875 51,50 2.500 128.750,00 12.875,00
308.000 405573 258 645.725,00 64.572,50
Monthly 25667 33798 22,00
ave. cost per salesmen
5.381,00
Average variable cost: 34.048
M. Maragliano for
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Monthly Average Grand Total
Advertising average expenses per month 25.667
Average expenses for travelling 3.000
Average expenses per salesmen 5.381
Total variable costs 34.048
Fixed costs 17.781
Grand Total 51.829
M. Maragliano for
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Total costs 1st year
Fixed Variable Total
Jan 17.781 27.000 44.781
Feb 17.781 31.500 49.281
Mar 17.781 34.000 51.781
Apr 17.781 34.500 52.281
May 17.781 35.320 53.101
Jun 17.781 36.183 53.964
Jul 17.781 37.070 54.851
Aug 17.781 8.000 25.781
Sep 17.781 36.450 54.231
Oct 17.781 39.950 57.731
Nov 17.781 41.725 59.506
Dec 17.781 43.875 61.656
Total 213.372 405.573 618.945
M. Maragliano for
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Revenues
M. Maragliano for
Average prices for 1 car 25.000 €
Hypotetical average profit margin 2.500 €
Advertising Redemption 1%
Average Break Even Point 20,7 cars x month
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Redemption and catches (1)
La Stampa 1.457.000
Il giornale 709.000
Il Corriere della Sera 2.577.000
Il Secolo XIX 527.000 Redemption 1%
Total readers 5.270.000 52.700
Quattroruote 4.830.000 48.300
Total redemption: 101.000
M. Maragliano for
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Penetration rate %
M. Maragliano for
We consider the adv campaign as a constant not including multiple readers and awareness increase. The following nubers represents the potential readers coming from a constant situation.
Hypothesis: to get 20% average of total potential customers (total redemption) in 5 years
Year Penetration rate %
1 8
2 17
3 20
4 25
5 30
Total 100
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Penetration rate %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5
years
perc
enta
ge
M. Maragliano for
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Potential active prospects
M. Maragliano for
Numbers deriving from penetration rate per year and redemption means : people that are conscious of the existance of the brand-
awareness- and do something to get in touch with us
Year Penetration rate Numbers
1 8% 8.080
2 17% 17.170
3 20% 20.200
4 25% 25.250
5 30% 30.300
Total redemption 101.000
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Potential active prospects
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
1 2 3 4 5
M. Maragliano for
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Catches
M. Maragliano for
Catches : real purchasing people - % based on Numbers
Year Catches
1 1.212
2 2.576
3 3.030
4 3.788
5 4.545
Total 15.150
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Catches
-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
1 2 3 4 5
M. Maragliano for
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Risk margin
M. Maragliano for
Risk Margin : I decided to divide for 5 times the catches
Total in 5 years
3.0303.030
Year Year catches / 5 Av. Cars per month
1 242,4 20,16
2 515,1 42,9
3 606 50,5
4 757,5 63,08
5 909 75,75
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Cars to be sold in 5 years
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1 2 3 4 5
M. Maragliano for
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Final figures 1st Year Hypotetical monthly target selling rate increase of
20% every month- mathematical progression –
Number of cars (242) Revenues based on profit margin (2.500 € )
Total Costs
Jan 0 - 44781
Febr 10 25.000 49281
Mar 12 30.000 51781
Apr 14 35.000 52281
May 17,28 43.200 53101
Jun 20,73 51.825 53964
Jul 24,28 60.700 54851
Ago 0 - 25781
Sept 29,8 74.500 54231
Oct 35,8 89.500 57731
Nov 42,9 107.250 59506
Dec 51,5 128.750 61656
258,29 645.725 645.725 618.949618.949
M. Maragliano for
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Summarized figures (10% profit margin)
ROI 1,043
Ave. Break even point 20,13 cars
618.949 645.725
26.776
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
Grand Total Revenues Net revenues
M. Maragliano for
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Summarized figures (12,5% profit margin)
ROI 1,271
Ave. Break even point 17,02 cars
635.092
807.156
172.064
0
100.000
200.000
300.000400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000800.000
900.000
Grand Total Revenues Netrevenues
M. Maragliano for
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Summarized figures (15% profit margin)
ROI 1,487
Ave. Break even point 14,54 cars
651.235
968.588
317.352
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
Grand Total Revenues Netrevenues
M. Maragliano for
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Future Years Import Automarketing Penetration on imported cars
2003 133.641 0% 0%
2004 115.518 0% 0%
2005 100.302 0% 0%
2006 101.964 0% 0%
20072007 85.29585.295 242242 0,28%0,28%
20082008 74.27074.270 515515 0,69%0,69%
20092009 63.24563.245 606606 0,96%0,96%
20102010 52.22052.220 758758 1,45%1,45%
20112011 41.19641.196 909909 2,21%2,21%
Average imported cars 1 year old 2003 – 2006 112.856
Average imported cars 1 year old 2007 – 20011 63.245
Average of averages 88.050
M. Maragliano for
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FUTURE : Market share 2007-2011
Average of averages 88.050
Average Cars sold by 3 structures in 5 years 1.818
average market share 3 structures in 5 year
2%
98%
M. Maragliano for
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End: Thanks for your time and attention
M. Maragliano for