re sakss presentation on project management mburu 2
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Project Management
Department of Agricultural Economics,
University of Nairobi
John Mburu
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THE PROJECT CONCEPT • A project represents a particular set of choices
(or interventions) over time to move from a
present situation to an envisaged future
situation
• In essence a project is an instrument of change
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DEFINITION OF A PROJECT
• “A proposal for capital investments where a
cost stream results in a certain flow of
benefits over a specified period” (FAO)
• “An investment asset from which we can
expect to realize benefits over an extended
period of time”- (Gittinger, 1982)
• “A proposal for capital investments to create
opportunities for producing goods and
services.”
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GENERAL TYPES OF PROJECTS
• Privately financed projects,
including private businesses
• Government (public) projects
(initiatives)
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CLASSIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
Functional classification:
•Projects aimed at technical innovation
•Expanding the natural resource base
•Improvement in the living conditions of
previously disadvantaged groups
• Improved market infrastructure
•Institutional capacity development
•Multifunctional investment projects
•Policy and institutional reforms
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WHY DO PROJECTS FAIL?
• A lack of ownership and responsibility
• Problems of project design and implementation
• The use of inappropriate technology
• Inadequate or inappropriate infrastructure
• Failure to appreciate the social and political
environment
• Administrative problems
• Changing economic situations and market
conditions
• Externally driven project initiatives
• Problems related to poor analysis
• Unrealistic expectations
• Unsupportive policy environment
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PROJECT CYCLE
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Project Cycle Identification – conceptualization
Preparation – objectives and activities required to achieve objectives
Appraisal – evaluation of alternative options and actions (ex-ante analysis)
Approval/rejection (decision making)
Implementation
Investment period
Development period
Monitoring
Completion
Evaluation (ex-post analysis) including impact assessment
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• RESEARCH PROJECTS VS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
DIAGNOSIS SOCIO-ECONOMIC
Planning
(screening ex-
ante)
Policy &
Institutional
issues
On-station
experimentation
Assessment
Modification/re-
planning
On-farm
experimentation
(on-going)
Assessment (ex-post)
Modification/re-
planning
Recommendations
Wider dissemination
•Research project
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•Development Project
Identification
Preparation and Analysis
Appraisal
Implementation
Evaluation and Impact
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IDENTIFICATION
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IDENTIFICATION (DIAGNOSIS)
Finding potentially fundable projects
Sources
Technical specialists
Local leaders
Politicians
Existing projects
Sector studies
Communities
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Aspects To Consider in Project
Planning & Assessment Technical aspects (physical input-output of
goods and services)
Institutional - Organizational - Managerial
aspects (including customs, tenure, local
organizations, cultural setting)
Social aspects (Broader social implications -
resource and income distribution, employment
opportunities)
Commercial and Business aspects (securing
supplies, market demand)
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Aspects To Consider in Project
Planning & Assessment (Cont.)
Financial aspects
Economic aspects (Economic
efficiency, deals with costs and
benefits)
Environmental aspects
(biological and physical effects)
Socio-cultural aspects
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Logical Framework
Analysis
(LFA)
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Logical Framework Analysis
(LFA
• What is LFA?
– A designing approach that can be used for
planning, designing, implementing and
evaluating projects or programmes
• Steps in LFA
– Situation Analysis
– Strategy Analysis
– Project Planning Matrix
– Implementation
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Situation Analysis
(1) Stakeholder Analysis
(2 ) Problem Analysis
(3 ) Objective Analysis
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1) Stakeholder Analysis
– Who are the stakeholders involved in the
project, and how are they affected?
• Consider the following:
– Who will be involved in the log-frame
development?
– Where will the development be
conducted?
– Who will facilitate the development of the
log-frame?
– What background materials, papers and
expertise may be needed?
– What materials and logistics are required?
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(2) Problem Analysis
Which are the problems the
project is addressing?
What are the root causes of those
problems?
What is the larger picture in
which those problems and their
root causes exist?
-What are the links between the
problems?
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Problem Analysis (cont’d)
Problem Tree
• Brainstorming techniques can be used
to identify the main problems
• After all of the problems are displayed
they should then be clustered into
groups of similar issues
• The problem tree is developed by:
1. moving problems from the clusters of
problems
2. adding new problems that emerge
3. problems can be moved up or down the
tree as required
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(2) Problem Analysis:
Example of a Problem Tree: one main problem
(EFFECT) a series of lower order problems
(CAUSE)
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3) Objectives Analysis • ... a procedure for systematically
– 1. identifying
– 2. categorising
– 3. specifying
– 4. balancing out ...objectives of all parties
involved in a specific situation
• Objectives Tree
– 1. Problems are restated as objectives
– 2. Positive mirror image of the problem
tree
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(3) Objective Analysis:
Example of an Objectives Tree: top of the tree is the
END desired, lower levels are the MEANS to the end
MDS 521 IRUNGU 2011
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Strategy Analysis
• Searching for and deciding on solutions
• Follows the problems and objectives
analysis
• Prerequisite to designing action strategies
Conducting a Strategy Analysis:
1. Ordering sequence of the problem and
objective trees
2. Clustering objectives
3. Feasibility of different interventions
4. Continuous task in project management
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25
The process of strategy formulation
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Strategy Analysis
MDS 521 IRUNGU 2011
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Project Planning Matrix
(logframe matrix):
• Developed from the strategy analysis
by filling in the columns of the matrix
as shown
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Narrative
Summary
(intervention logic)
Objectively
Verifiable
Indicators
Means of
Verification
Important
Assumptions
GOALS /
OBJECTIVES
Measures of goal
achievement
Various sources of
information,
methods
used
Goal / Purpose
linkages
PROJECT
PURPOSE
End of project
status
Various sources of
information,
methods
used
Output / Purpose
linkages
OUTPUTS /
RESULTS
Magnitudes of
outputs,
planned completion
dates
Various sources of
information,
methods
used
Input / Output
linkages
INPUTS /
ACTIVITIES
Types/levels of
resources, starting
dates
Project data, other
sources of
information
Initial Assumptions
regarding the
causality
of the programme
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PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION
• Operational phase of a project to
achieve the expected outputs/results
• Plan of Operations
work plans / work schedules
project budget / resources plans
personnel plans
material and equipment plan /
procurement plan / staff training plans
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PROJECT MONITORING
AND EVALUATION
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WHAT IS MONITORING?
Day-to-day follow up of activities during
implementation to measure progress and
identify deviations
Routine follow up to ensure activities are
proceeding as planned and are on schedule
Routine assessment of activities and results
Answers the question, “what are we doing?”
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TYPES OF MONITORING • Progress
– How much was achieved?
– When was it achieved?
– How was it achieved?
– At what cost?
• Process
– What happens?
– Why?
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KEY STEPS IN PROGRESS
MONITORING
1. Establishing the monitoring
unit/system
2. Situation review and selecting key
project process and indicators
3. Observing key processes
4. Reflecting on /analysis of results
5. Follow-up action
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WHAT IS EVALUATION?
Episodic assessment of overall achievement and impacts
Systematic way of learning from experience to IMPROVE current activities and promote better planning for future action
Designed specifically with intention to attribute changes to intervention itself
Answers the question, “what have we achieved and what impact have we made”
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WHY EVALUATE? Determines program effectiveness ,
efficiency, relevance and
sustainability
Shows impact
Strengthens financial responses and
accountability
Promotes a learning culture focused
on service improvement
Promotes replication of successful
interventions (replicability)
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MONITORING vs EVALUATION
MONITORING VS EVALUATION
Monitoring Evaluation
Continuous: day-to-day Periodic: important milestones
Documents progress In-depth analysis of achievements
Focuses on inputs and outputs Focuses on outcomes and impacts
Alerts managers to problems Provides managers with strategy
and policy options
Self-assessment External analysis
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MONITORING AND EVALUATION M&E Framework
Level Description Frequency
Inputs Resources that are put into the project. Lead to
the achievement of the outputs
Continuous
Outputs Activities or services that the project is providing.
Outputs lead to outcomes
Quarterly
Outcomes Changes in behaviors or skills as a result of the
implemented project. Outcomes are anticipated
to lead to impacts
(short to medium
term)
Impacts Measurable changes e.g. creation of
employment or improved health, in the target
group and the community in general
3-5 years
(long term)
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MONITORING SYSTEM • In order to carry out monitoring properly,
it is essential to create a system to
control the flow of information
• The system should ensure that they
define the key information needed,
collect it and disseminate to the groups
of people who need it (eg the decision
makers)
• The system should therefore include
procedures for gathering the info and for
feedback
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Four components of a
monitoring system
Collection of information
Aggregation and analysis
Decision Feedback
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Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
Types of evaluation Type Purpose
Formative Initial assessment of the target populations and
contextual environment. Determines concept and design
Process Seeks to identify the extent to which planned activities
have been achieved and assesses the quality of the
activities/services
Outcome Examines specific program outcomes and
accomplishments. What changes were observed, what
does it mean, and if changes are a result of the
interventions?
Impact Gauges the program’s overall impact and effectiveness.
Aims to strengthen design and replication of effective
programs and strategies
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EVALUATION QUESTIONS • Evaluation questions are usually based on
the evaluation criteria
– Relevance
– Effectiveness
– Efficiency
– Impact
– Sustainability
– Replicability /up scaling (if a pilot project)
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IMPACT
ANALYSIS/EVALUATION OF
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
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OVERVIEW OF IMPACT ANALYSIS
• The impacts of a project are
positive or negative effects brought
about by the project
• Is there a likelihood of the overall
goal, or the intended positive
results being achieved by the
project?
• The impacts need to be assessed
across a wide range of viewpoints
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DIMENSIONS OF PROJECT ANALYSIS
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IMPACT EVALUATION
• Determines if the program had the desired
effects on individuals, households, and
institutions, and if those effects can be
attributed to the program intervention.
• This requires estimating the counterfactual,
what would have happened had the project
never taken place.
• This is done through a comparison or
control group; those who do not participate
in the program, i.e., ‘with’ and ‘without’
project comparisons.
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IMPACT EVALUATION: with and
without project comparisons
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COST BNEFIT ANALYSIS (CBA) AS A TOOL FOR PROJECT APPRAISAL/EVALUATION
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OVERVIEW OF CBA
• Often high magnitudes of different categories of costs (including transaction costs) are incurred in projects
• These costs should be quantified and compared with the potential or actual gains (benefits)
• This is done in a CBA which could be conducted ex ante and ex post
• With ‘with’ and ‘without’ project comparisons ones needs to calculate the incremental net benefit cash flow
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STEPS (STRUCTURE) OF A CBA 1. Define the project:
– what kind of resources are being reallocated?
– Who (the population) are gainers and losers over which costs and benefits are to be aggregated, what is their level of operation?
2. Which project impacts/consequences are relevant or economically important, while considering
3. Identifying positive and negative impacts/consequences
– Include also unpriced impacts or externalities
– Exclude transfer payments effects- changes of indirect taxes, additional unemployment benefits becoming payable, etc. These are merely redistributed in the government system
– Determine the physical amounts of the impacts and when in time they occur
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STEPS OF A CBA (CONT’D) 4. Monetary valuation of economic benefits and
economic costs – Predict prices for cash flows extending into the future. A real rate of
discount should be used
– Correct market prices where necessary. Shadow prices may be used to reflect true resources scarcity. Consider: imperfect competition, government intervention in the market, and the likelihood of absence of markets
– Calculate prices (relative values in common units) where none exists
5. Apply the decision criteria
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NPV>0; B/C>1; largest IRR above cut-off rate (many projects can give multiple IRRs from the same data set and cannot decide among many projects)
Income redistribution issues are not considered. This needs political processes
5. Apply the decision criteria (cont’d)
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STEPS OF A CBA (cont’d)
6. Conduct sensitivity analysis – Mainly due to uncertainty: adjust the predictions and assumptions
made